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Any updates on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105454">Ronald Acuna</a></span>?
Regarding Vogelbach, it would be cool to get a little more context. If I postulate that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59218">Pedro Alvarez</a></span> is also a 20 runner and defender (I think he is), does that represent what Vogelbach success looks like? Then: What proportion of Pedro Alvarez types have ML careers relative to Eddie <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Julio+Martinez">Julio Martinez</a></span> types?
Given his manager's incrimination of Bryce Harper not hustling, suggesting that he should dial it back is a kind of sad irony.
KC/Dayton Moore really blew it by not going hard after Cano. The analysis of Cano's affordability during the off-season should have given some courage, and I don't think KC will ever make a jump by making the likes of Omar Infante their "big acquisition" given where they ended last year. Cano would have made KC an instant and viable contender (while Seattle is having trouble figuring out what else to do with their roster). So bad grade from me on Dayton Moore's winter.
Re: "Who's Your Daddy," Sox fans got the last laugh in 2004 when they were able to respond "Who's your Caddy?"
What happened to Lee is a damned shame. Does Tim Beckham deserve the moral opprobrium of being a lesser player making a bad play? What is the lesson?
I seem to remember that PECOTA was not so rosy about Wood as evaluators. Is that recollection correct?
A similar analysis on John Lester and Tim Lincecum would be interesting.
I would be interested in how such an analysis may measure bias. Any skew between incorrect calls for balls vs incorrect calls for strikes? Pitcher A vs Pitcher B? I would imagine that in the aggregate (5000 pitches) you may not see much, but over smaller samples you would see strong patterns.
Taking the conjecture further, if an umpire was 85% correct but always called the mistakes as strikes, how might that impact scrutiny compared against an umpire who was 89% but 'all over the place' in the missed calls?
I would say Valentine's errors are probably traced to management strategy so far, and less to baseball tactics.
He hasn't really done well with Bard, perhaps because he has not been on board with him as a starter going back to early spring training...I would guess he was not on the same page with the GM there. Bard was left in too long one game probably because he has disowned the plan for him, and he is taking too much cue from the player as that player learns.
Aceves coming on Saturday came after an extended rest...I surmise that Aceves is the type of pitcher that needs to get the ball pretty often, based on his past history of not being good at starting. Storing him in glass as "the closer" may not be effective.
The late demotion of Iglesias after such glowing comments in Spring Training also presents a situation where he is possibly not on the same page with the team. Further,it seems just wrong: Among the BP community, it is recognized that ST is not the place to make strategic decisions for the team.
All of these things add up to induce players to question his judgment. Among the other aspects of the Sox organization, his initial hire was perceived as something of a putsch by unpopular owner Larry Luccino: This does not help him in any case, and is not really his responsibility, but the areas where he has gone out on a limb become starker due to this context, and he may not be wise to this.
Call it "the many Matt Thorntons." On any given day, a player may be: Trying something new, getting familiar with a new role, feeling comfortable with a new role, feeling nervous, feeling confident, sleeping late and forgetting to get the standard double shot espresso on the way to the park, mulling over a fight with wife/friend/family, dealing with a twinge in some joint or muscle that isn't even worth reporting, fighting a low level virus that isn't even noticed, etc. etc.
Within THAT kind of noise, who can pick what it was that really mattered if Mr. Thornton did poorly on a stretch of days, whatever the inning.
I do believe another Matt Thornton could eventually be: Handling the implications of previous failures, whether due to luck or not. At that point in a hypothetical future, he may become done as a closer only because nobody will have the investment to let him work it out anymore. Not even a sabermetician.
So perhaps the closer mentality is a function both of measurable skills and happenstance at the very earliest stages of the trial run: Half talent, half luck. Still reality, whatever the outcome.
Jio Meier was #1 in the system last year. Is the extraordinary drop in the ratings circumstantial, or did he really perform that poorly?
It will be interesting how soon the drafting will correct itself to minimize this inefficiency, in much the same manner as College player inefficiency has been apparently corrected.
Where does Jio Meier fall in the analysis?
In other areas of commercial optical instrumentation, one uses a mechanical alignment jig that is kinematically mounted to serve as a standard. At first blush, it does not seem to be a stretch to devise such a jig to be placed reproducibly over home plate before each game, for alignment calibration. Such a jig would have standardized height, width, and depth targets for the tracking system.
The player I am reminded by is John Tudor. Older lefty, with impeccable command. He only had a window of really superior pitching, and I think it was an injury that did him in.