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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31506">Scott Kazmir</a></span> to the Mets. Randy has a twisted sense of humor. He (she?) will fit right in here.
That's great. Thanks for sharing those. Also the opposing starter in the Wells game, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1476">LaTroy Hawkins</a></span>, pitched in the Giambi game.
To the emailer who was looking to dump the team he roots for: Play the Under on their win total. You'll break up with them real quick, and it's a lot easier than Sam's suggestion of having a kid.
The percentile thing matches pretty well with our eyes. According to PECOTA, there is the same chance that Kershaw exceeds his 90th percentile or performs worse than his 10th. You were split almost down the middle with 53 percent saying UNDER 1.46 ERA was more likely and the rest saying OVER 3.02 ERA was more likely.
I asked in the survey for your fan allegiance, and it's no surprise that the Dodgers were overrepresented with 45 Dodgers fans in 139 replies and those 45 voting 39-6 for the 90th. Put them back at a more representative percentage, and the balance is tipped the other way.
In other words, baseball fan gonna baseball fan, I guess.
Felix Hernandez, by the way, was 70-68 for his 90th percentile in the follow-up question.
Sorry, postseason, not division. -Z
I'm lost. Am I the idiot or the model in this metaphor? Only asking because my mother has called me both.
It's a reflection of comparables up to where the player is right now, but the player's past and what we know about how those players age are used as guides to project the player's future. Nobody is an exact comp and some are much closer than others.
Would love to hear what else could go into the value. Right now, I'm definitely ignoring several things. The fact that you have a bronze ticket somewhere on display in your house for years as a conversation starter has to be a positive, considering how much people pay for far less interesting things like autographs. And this analysis also ignores the chance that the team moves, which probably has to be a small decrease in the value.
Also, be sure to listen to today's Effectively Wild podcast where Sam and Ben discuss the value and what team's Timeless Ticket they'd most want to have.
Good point on the Mets' timing, and what happened to their finances in the 21st century is something altogether different. I did mean in the process rather than the outcome, but that's a good warning that you point out that consistent returns are an exercise here, not a promise. (I wouldn't hold up well in jail, so I needed to say that.)
Also, I was thinking about using an 8% discount to account for the fact that returns over the measured period do tend to be decreasing, and the difference there is $19M, so not enough to substantially change the point of needing to account for something larger than inflation. -Z
Stepping back from the hypothetical, I was wondering the same thing. I'm not a doctor either, but if it's only the side-to-side torque that does him, you'll get less of it in a throw than a swing. And Mike Matheny did say he was throwing and catching well yesterday and just couldn't swing. Whether that's part of a long plan to make the Giants not run on him when he does bring him in for defense...
The parrot walk was one of nine featured in last year's list.
That's a fair point about the injuries, especially Edmonds. However, they did finish 83-78 despite playing in the easier league (NL was 56 games under .500 that year) and playing an imbalanced schedule in a division that finished 65 games under .500. And their run differential predicted a slightly worse record if that's a factor.
I'll admit that I said that almost entirely on record, not any underlying qualities, so I'd definitely be open to a counterpoint if there's another team to suggest. (Of course relative to their league. Obviously every team of the 1920s was worse than every team of the 2000s.) -Z
He was awesome, and I thought about him and also Rick Sutcliffe, who won a Cy Young in the NL after being traded from Cleveland to the Cubs midseason.
Neither of them was acquired within even three weeks of the deadline, and that's why I worded the sentence like that. Both Sabathia and Sutcliffe deserved mention somewhere though, so I'm glad you brought CC up. That was a fun run. -Z
Thank you. However, I think I was a little bit misinformed as to what an epitaph is. -Z
The fight that followed that was one of my 5 favorite memories of my baseball childhood.
Here's the video just because:
Yes, he got 6 games. Apologies for that. It didn't get recorded like all the others for whatever reason, and it wasn't actually a hit by pitch, but that should count and I shouldn't have forgotten that one.
Thanks, and that's definitely fair. Using the Norris quote was more as a setup to talk about the issues because it's something we've heard lots of times before. What he individually thinks about this specific deal, you're right, isn't of that much consequence especially since he does have his own Astros ties that tend to come up.
Yes, that's a terrific site for that sort of stat.
I suspect at the end of the year, we'll have more significant data on that. The data isn't real clean on that, but it looks like Jim Reynolds with 13 is the leader. Small numbers, though.
Chapman's also a good one. Probably wouldn't have made the top 10 since I barely noticed he was gone since I just can't get that attached to relievers, but I definitely notice that he's back. If that made any sense.
McCutchen and Gomez are both good additions. In fact, Gomez just landed the Sports Illustrated cover, so I guess we'll get to see his Twitter funeral play out for ourselves in a few days now.
Those are good points, and I agree that the PR side doesn't look good here.
I think I'd still rather have the ability to have him back for his age 30 season. You can always non-tender him if he ends up on the side where he's not going to be worth having him around for the extra year at what would be a fourth-year arb price. So it's almost like having a club option on him if you frame it in comparison to his being called up in September.
To me, the option to have him at age 30 outweighs the September and April of these bad seasons.
So about tonight's game...
Yes, 0.28 for an out, 0.036 for a ball and 0.043 for a strike. Thanks. -Z
Yeah, that was poor wording on my part, both in ignoring the sports that aren't American at all and also considering baseball uniquely American when the DR and Japan, to name a couple, might disagree. E1 on that one. -Z
It's definitely my favorite too.
I bet Ben Lindbergh was also rooting for Slovakia this morning.
Yes, I hadn't seen that one, but it is very close. The part about the six qualifications was never intended to be new, but the piece you linked did have a lot of the same things about shooting down the usual counter-arguments to leaving them out. Thanks for posting.
Another theory I'll throw out: The initial odds already built in who would be the expected spenders. So the Yankees couldn't be listed at the long odds that an old team coming off a tied-for-3rd/4th-place season with a negative run differential should be.
And when the spenders were indeed who the market expected, there wasn't much change.
RBI is another good one. I thought about it and was more interested in getting walks in there as the one addressing how their offensive value was distributed and didn't really want both. I thought the walks difference was really clear, but maybe RBI would have been a more interesting study.
I'm a SABR member and never considered that baseball was played on a spreadsheet, but it might explain how Shelby Miller could have been hiding in Column CX, Row 9378 during the World Series.
I agree with you that it is an award that should be based solely on metrics and that WARP/WAR is dependent on its author. But that's why I made the player be better in all three measures and by a significant amount - to try to weed out the differences among the number and make sure there was a clear difference between the players.
Longitude would be another good test. I've had a couple come in. At the risk of some serious overfitting, which was perhaps already the case with today's exercise, maybe I'll try a sequel.
Good point. Most of the pro-catcher votes were in the earlier end of the time frame. Though while Ivan Rodriguez's MVP wasn't a robbery by this liberal definition, the numbers didn't really agree with it.
I'll allow you that. We did talk about Boston more than St. Louis. But I don't think it was for any lack of knowledge about St. Louis or any lack of respect for the team that you're sarcastically not naming. I just feel like Boston has more questions going into the series. We talked some about Shelby Miller, but with Craig likely to be back (confirmed as a definite today), there weren't a lot more questions with the Cardinals. If one team has a few more issues that can be bantered about, I really think that's OK and not a sign of disrespect. We may have missed something for one team - in fact I'm sure we did for both teams - but it wasn't intentionally disrespectful. I'll be writing plenty about both teams during the series.
Thanks. McCarver would be a really good one. Deadspin has been keeping good logs of Hawk's silence in response to things like game-winning home runs against the White Sox.
Agreed. To be honest, I thought most of the attempts to criticize Leyland last night were people acting on reflex. A team just blew a 5-run lead, so we're probably supposed to find some fault with the manager in that. I've criticized plenty of managers and I'm sure I'll have something to say about Leyland in some game this series, but this wasn't it. Sometimes you just blow a 5-run lead because your players did it.
The individual game previews have them, so look for the Game 1 PECOTA projection for this series Friday.
Yes, that's correct. Saturday-Thursday normal rest.
My heart literally jumps out of my chest when somebody uses it incorrectly.
Or be right and be very happy. I'd be perfectly content with that scenario too. Just resolution once and for all either way.
Kickstarter: Buy the Marlins.
Or work out a trade with the team that claims him. Marlins would have first crack, but he's a little pricey and I don't think they'd risk just having the contract dumped on them. Brewers are next and they already have Carlos Gomez so they wouldn't want him...
Now that you mention it, yeah, I guess he probably would clear.
Wrote it without realizing, thought about it later, decided to keep it.
Those are good points on Lee and Young. Those certainly aren't deadlines, and Young at least would probably clear waivers, so even yesterday wasn't a deadline, nor is August 31 if they can be moved in a better market this offseason. Not cashing out Hamels and Utley probably speak more toward his desire to keep this group alive.
I'm not really knocking what they're doing - a 2+1 as you said might be fine for Utley, though I'm not totally optimistic about his next few years.
I'm more thinking about the philosophy on the classic sell pieces - the guys two months away from free agency. Hamels was the one where I thought they had a chance to cash out with two months left, and an extension for Utley rather than a trade yesterday indicates to me that philosophy of hanging onto the old parts continues.
A lot of them were guys who got drafted and stalled at the Double-A or Triple-A levels. And I shouldn't make it sound like all leagues are the same. The Atlantic League - the one you hear about the most with ex-big-leaguers, think Long Island Ducks, Sugar Land Skeeters, etc. - is a higher level than the other ones.
I remember when I covered the Astros, there would be guys who would advance a couple of levels and then when the trades happened and pushed some NPs out of the system, they'd end up in Sugar Land or someplace on the indy circuit.
But it would be very different than AA guys even if they would play each other to roughly .500. They would be more refined with less upside but the overall talent level might be a match. I suspect Atlantic League teams at least would still have a considerable edge over a low A team.
I'm an idiot.
This is an excellent point too. And there are other factors. Like the count. The math would be a little different if it were the first pitch, where it would probably be more likely to signal intent, from if it were an 0-2 count.
This was definitely just a quick route to a single figure.
That's a good point. Is 1% really high though for a chance that a guy is being thrown at? I'd have to know a lot when a guy is walking to the plate even to think there's a 1% chance he's being thrown at. 1% of plate appearances is more than one every other game. I don't think there are nearly that many with intent to bean a guy, so there must be something exceptional about that PA, and then to see him do it would raise suspicion.
That's my opinion. Yours may vary on how much you'd need to know to perceive 1% chance of intent (not 1% chance of beaning, which is about the league figure)
I'm not sure I would say it with such precision as a few inches, but in general, they're pretty accurate and probably don't pitch inside as much as they used to unless they're trying to. (Anecdotal, not researched)
As an appendix and a way to take some of the math out of the body of the text: If you thought the probability when the batter was walking to the plate was less than 80 percent, here are some other applications of Bayes’ theorem.
- If it’s a 20% prior: .90*.20/(.90*.20 + .008*.80) = 96.6% chance he was throwing at him given that the batter was hit.
- If it’s a 50% prior: .90*.50/(.90*.50 + .008*.50) = 99.1% chance he was throwing at him given that the batter was hit.
(Remember a 50% prior is extraordinarily high; think about what circumstances there would have to be to take even money odds that the next batter specifically would be plunked)
In covering the Astros for a few years, I was twice able to hook a diversion to see the farm club in Lancaster onto an Astros west coast trip. I found the drive up 14 to be absolutely incredible. Sure, it's nothingness, but as someone who has only lived in Houston and the Northeast, the geography (or topography or whatever) was nothing I had ever seen before. So was the change as you got away from the water. From Los Angeles to Lancaster, I think the temperature went up from 70 to 100 in 40 miles or so.
I agree with you on the town. While the downtown was mostly under construction when I was there, it definitely had a lot of potential, and I hope to find some reason to go back some day. Ultimately, I judged every road city I visited mostly on the availability of post-midnight dining options, so it didn't score perfect grades, but Lancaster was pretty good and I must say surprisingly so.
It's because Rosario is actually blind, isn't it?
Thanks. Gary Thorne was indeed a good straight man in the O's booth. It almost seemed like he was a little mortified after the rant or at least just tried to bring it back to the center.
Yes, I was going for the lower-salary guys, but I do think McCann would be an excellent fit for the Yankees unless you think Gary Sanchez is a major league catcher in well fewer years than McCann demands.
That's probably it, the pick of "In Control" was sort of the one that threw me. That one seems not to fit. You can be in control at most portions of that spectrum.
Did a piece on just this about Nick Johnson back in January when he retired.
He would have been great for the list too.
Koufax is a good one. There was something pretty cool, though, about seeing enough of his peak to get a good idea and a HOF body of work (unlike Prior, Wood, etc.) and then never having to watch his decline.
Sorry we couldn't give you a game on your Albany stop. We haven't had full-season ball here since the mid-90s. Come back after the draft and I'll show you the wonders of our stadium named after a disgraced state senator.
Thanks very much. I guess I don't remember their portraying it as a walkoff, but according to the box score it was actually a solo shot for the first run of a 4-2 game that the Dodgers never trailed.
A theory on my own question about Blue Jays-Expos moving to Puerto Rico in 2004, and I just don't remember if it's true: It gave fans in San Juan a chance to see Carlos Delgado, at the time one of the best Puerto Rican players.
Those are good points, especially No. 2. I think No. 3 has some merit but probably underrates how far a place like Seattle is from most teams. I doubt there would be more effects unless the whole international change has a big effect on time or travel conditions are substandard, which I can't imagine they'd be, given the end of your first point.
No, any dumbness is all on me. Like this probably could have weighed last year's walk tendency more.
Apologies on that. He and Brandon Belt were a couple others I was considering talking about in the piece. As for those numbers, the first part of that seems really ambitious. The second part doesn't given the ballpark and just the fact that with regular playing time and the same rate stats, he could get to 20-25 without much problem. I don't see a .300 hitter there, though.
Thank you for mentioning Durazo. He was my favorite comp from the list of good hitters with short careers. Actually, I think it was in 2006 that PECOTA had Durazo as one of Johnson's three comps. -Z
That was an alternative third team to the Astros that I decided against but just threw out there.
It's Reddick to the Yankees, Lowrie to the A's and prospects to the Astros as the basis.
Yeah, Davis is another one right up there. Hit 34 homers in 1989 and nobody else on the team hit more than 13. The Astros tried a ton of different guys batting 3rd but never moved Davis from 4th.