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Thanks for the mention, Greg. I talked to Matt Winkelman of Crashburn Alley and Eric Karabell of ESPN, who confirmed my suspicions on Alfaro's timetable.
$25. I'm pretty confident but would feel lousy recommending a higher bid only to see Neris get the job in a month
He was listed as @COL on late Saturday night, which is when the bid program ran for RT Sports. But you're right, he's now slated for a start against the Padres
I'll clarify this in the article later. Thanks for your note
Drag over the table and then cut and paste into Excel
Hand, Buchter, Storen, to name a few
Depends on keeper rules but $8-10
Feel free to tick him up $2-4 if you are a believer My bid limit was factoring in some time in the rotation and an innings limit already.
Tout Wars has unlimited DL slots but players on the restricted list count against your four man reserve list. If Kang and Familia are both on the restricted list, it limits me in the early going.
I could try to put something like this together. It would take time though...
That's a good point about the swing spot/Kang that I should have mentioned in the piece
The Hwang issue is technical. Please email customer service.
Please email customer service. We have technical folks this issue will be forwarded to so they can review/address.
It's a fairly low end bid for him, so while I do believe he'll play at some point this year, I'm not going to push him too far.
Pina profiles primarily as a backup. The batting average shouldn't hurt but I can't see him hitting more than 10-12 home runs even if he gets all the at bats behind the plate.
The <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> is based off of <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> and uses a mechanical forecast to generate values. These rankings take a number of things into account - including the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> - but also use NFBC drafts as a real life barometer for when a player might be taken.
Cobb should probably be on here somewhere. And Hammel probably shouldn't be.
But when you get into the $2 pitchers in mixed a lot of this is discretionary. Bret and I consolidate our rankings, so some of this is a case where we both might "prefer" a player as opposed to only one of us expressing a preference.
It's not dumb but it sounds suboptimal to me.
I'm skeptical Duvall holds up for a full season. The arrow was pointing down on him in the second half, particularly in home runs
Bell is going to be a solid real life player who I don't see having a big fantasy impact in any counting category
I'm not sure if you think I'm too high or too low on Dickerson/Joseph. I got Dickerson for $9 in LABR but think he'll be worth much more than that. My Joseph bid is very close to what he cost in CBS and LABR
Rupp should start. He's boring but has power behind the dish.
Asdrubal made a similar adjustment to the one <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Daniel+Murphy">Daniel Murphy</a></span> made in 2015. He hit 306/358/566 from July 1 on and I believe this was due to tangible improvements
I might move Altherr up a couple bucks in the next update. He's having a good spring. My concern is that with Saunders ahead of him and Williams/Quinn behind him the window is very small
No, this helps. Will fix shortly
Seems a little optimistic but it's not out of line
I thought his command was a little off in the games I watched him pitch. Keuchel is a pitcher who doesn't have the margin for error that others with more velocity do. If the command is back, he could be a solid bargain. But that's an if for me
Yes in a league that deep.
It would obviously depend on the valuation system. ESPN and CBS's autodrsfters tend to bid aggressively, so a team on auto would fill out its roster rather quickly. But I've seen the phenomenon you're talking about as well
Here you go.
One quick note, this is as of last week's bid limits. I won't be updating this file, this is a one-time thing because you asked.
Did you need this for NL or AL?
For auctions specifically?
They'rre the kind of players were PECOTA/PFM is weighting the numbers from the last three years and projecting regression. I see room for growth in both.
He could earn it, especially in 4x4. I generally don't like paying par on guys like Simmons as a rule
I'm reluctant to do so but if they keep talking about it I'll flip them in the next update
Weird, but he's back now.
The charts in these articles? You can go into the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a>, select last year's stats, filter on <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RP</span></a>, and pull down in CSV.
Depends on the pitcher, but I'd be more likely to move up perpetually injured arms like McCarthy and Ryu if you could "guarantee" 150 innings.
Thanks for the heads up. Reaching out now.
They have been added to the form.
Brantley went for $7. My adjustment is based on his drop in price in LABR. Based on your comment and similar feedback I've heard, I'll probably drop him again in the next update.
It s about 69/31. The mixed bids are loosely modeled on the Tout Wars mixed auction prices for the last three years.
That's a form error. I'll send to programming
Liriano is $8 and I think Graveman is $1. I'll check when I get home. I'm 99 percent sure about Liriano
Yes, I would rather have Votto
I do something similar to what you're talking about but don't go over my bid. Typically I pay par
If the link doesn't work, I googled "CBS 2017 AL only auction" and it was the first result.
Thanks. Look for my other LABR article, which will examine trends in both leagues, out tomorrow.
I won a league because of Colome, so I'm glad I didn't take the reliever in Colomb.
Yes, especially given how weak the bottom teams are in the NL currently.
That's fair in terms of my piece, though. I could have expressed that more clearly.
I like the arm. The Phillies seem really commited to Gomez in an effort to save $$$ on Neris down the line in arb
This is an old article from my pre-BP, blogging days, but should give you a rough idea of the price differences between 12 and 13-team leagues. You will have to reverse the calculations. http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2009/03/adjusting-for-smaller-leagues.html
I'd keep Lindor because it is a keeper.
Eric Roseberry will be covering holds in his Adjuster piece tomorrow.
Yes, the $5 rule is my general rule of thumb with players. I would bump Russell up to $15.
You could bump him higher because of inflation. But I don't do that because that takes the value away from the player - and your team.
This is correct
It's less of a commentary on those guys and more on the fact that the top end guys stand well above. The depth in the NL also gives more choices to fantasy owners, which is why I pushed the prices down.
Closers are very marketplace specific. I encourage you to be more aggressive if your league is
If he's healthy he'll earn it. But I don't want to pay $10 ((or more) to find out
Thanks for the heads up. I'll pass along to our technical team.
Thanks. I'll pass these along.
Wieters to the two-star. Norris goes off the list.
Arenado and Freeman in one catcher leagues. In a two catcher format, you have to go Arenado/Posey.
Freeman will be top 5 or on the periphery of that for the next few seasons.
1) Renfroe is listed with the two-star outfielders. I like the power upside but do worry the strikeouts could push the batting average down, especially in the short term.
2) Altherr has a narrow window to prove himself this year, and is slated to be on the "bad" side of a platoon with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48766">Michael Saunders</a></span>.
3) I love Brinson long term. He's close to being ready, and could find regular time in the Brewers OF. For '17, there's lots of bust to go with that boom.
4) Zimmer's contact issues last year put him at some risk, and his ceiling doesn't look as high as it once did. The power/speed combination is difficult to ignore though.
Arcia has greater fantasy upside long term but Renfroe is the guy I want for 2017
He was the final cut.
The Red Sox defense is very good. But every system I can find put the Cubs first last year by a wide margin. The Red Sox were 4th in DRS and 6th in UZR. The comment wasn't meant as a knock on Boston's D (which I agree, is a positive), but rather as a commentary on how far above the pack the Cubs were in 2016.
Elbow injuries make me wary.
Only the categories that are listed.
If you want to pull them into Excel (or Google doc) you have to cut and paste.
I generally add a buck to two to players like this in deeper leagues where I have daily lineup options and remove that money from platoon players on the "good" side of a platoon. Many of these adjustments are already factored in.
It appears to be fixed now. Please let me know if you see any errors. Sorry for the confusion.
To head the most obvious question off at the pass, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Price">David Price</a></span>'s bid is pre-injury. I don't want to make a decision until the second opinion later today. If I had an auction this morning, I'd cut Price's bid in half, at least..
After seeing your Chris Hoo joke, Owl be contacting my lawyer.
PECOTA/PFM is finalized after this series starts. In the past we switched to projections midstream and many readers took issue, saying they preferred continuity
Whoops again. The two-star is tomorrow. He'll be in that article.
Whoops. He should be in the two star
I don't really draft like this, but if I did I'd want someone in that top 5.
Hi Davin. Thanks for the positive feedback. Always appreciated.
The first bid limit update is scheduled to come out on Friday, March 3.
i think <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> is correct in terms of weighting prior years.. A better way of putting this is that some players - either through improvement or sudden decline - can defy the model. In terms of improvement, if is far more common with younger players (Jacob de Grom's rookie season jumps out) but with pitchers who develop or refine a new pitch it is not necessarily age dependent.
I hope this is clear. This is a topic that I will revisit later this year time permitting
His eligibility at the moment is 3B/OF. Some leagues do use a 15 game requirement from the previous season, we have decided to use 20.
I asked around and could not find another league or format where Segura is not eligible at shortstop based on his 23 games from last season. Again, while we do want to cater to all of our readers, our rankings are an earnest attempt to cater to most of our readers.
Those are all good points.
These types of articles are my least favorite to write. Judge could be very good, but compared to a number of other prospect outfielders he's riskier.
I could have picked <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47142">Jay Bruce</a></span>, but that wouldn't have been much of a service to anyone.
He was close for me. Barely missed the bottom tier
Right. I wasn't trying to be glib. It's difficult to answer a question like this in depth without more league specific information
Sure. Any strategy can work. And in shallower leagues there are lots of options here.
I like the chance of a rebound with the bat. I'm skeptical he's going to run the way he used to, and without the steals I don't feel comfortable giving him a five-star rating.
We broke this up into two parts due to the length of the article. Part two runs tomorrow.
Has more to do with the ceiling/potential for Franco. We were torn between moving Franco down to the two-star tier or keeping him in the three-star. If this is all Franco is, I would agree that it's a coin toss, and perhaps Suarez's speed gives him a slight edge. But there is still enough of a belief in Franco's ceiling that we decided to keep him in the three-star...and ahead of Suarez.
Yes he is (albeit barely)
I'm writing a short paragraph about him for tomorrow's AL-only piece in case you want my take on him.
I generally use 3 for keeper leagues.
I say yes
Thanks for the late afternoon jolt
If there are no caps, then definitely yes
We had him high four-star at 2B. But given that I have him ahead of a couple of the five-star SS, yes
He did not.
I omit the bench spots. The exception is auction formats where you can use $$$ on reserve players
He is third base. He was ranked 31st overall (he was the last hitter I omitted). I'll guess 383 at bats.
He's not going to suck the way he did the last two months. But I don't think he repeats last year. Sorry if that didn't make you feel any better.
I've played in leagues that only allow for most games played from the previous year, but those leagues are fairly rare. I've also played in leagues that are primary position coming into the season, but that rule is usually for minor leaguers, not established players.
Hanging out with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> by the pool
He's a decent bounce back candidate, though I suspect his 2015 was somewhat fluky.
They'll both be owned in AL-only, though they won't be eligible at 2B in most formats to start the year. A lot depends on whether the Rays sign someone to play first and move <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brad+Miller">Brad Miller</a></span> to second. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Carter">Chris Carter</a></span> has been tied to the Rays in at least one rumor.
He'd be in the two-star tier. He'll be at shortstop next week.
You're a good Dad, Bret.
Traditionally, players in fantasy are ranked at shortstop if they have eligibility there since shortstop has often had a handful of weaker offensive players residing at the bottom of the position. This year offers a fairly good example of this phenomenon. A straight up ranking of shortstops based on projected position would feature players like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31369">J.J. Hardy</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57302">Freddy Galvis</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68088">Luis Sardinas</a></span>, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58450">Jordy Mercer</a></span> at short. While these players will all get used in NL-only or super deep mixed leagues, in shallower mixed formats, it is far more likely that you will shift players like Machado, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brad+Miller">Brad Miller</a></span>, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56761">Jean Segura</a></span> over to second to compensate for the weaker options at the bottom of the position.
CBS, ESPN, and Yahoo leagues all permit you to use players like Machado at short, so I figured it was useful to use this logic here as well, as many of our readers play using one of these services.
You are correct that Machado is not slated to start at shortstop in 2017.
My initial ranking had Sano in the three-star tier. He was moved down after staff feedback noted that his "carrying tool of power is not as valuable in this climate" and that "if Sano's strikeouts don't under much better control he's going to have a ...hard time offsetting and generating value on the long ball alone." I'm with you on the upside, although if he is Frazier without the steals the three-star is about as high as Sano is going to get. The ranking acknowledges the downside while keeping him at the top of the tier to recognize that - for me at least - it was a close call.
He'll be with the shortstops next week
He'll be at shortstop next week. Five star without a doubt
I was initially going to pick Phillips, but that was my thought process as well.
Not much. The league switch is somewhat offset by the move to a weaker division.
A new meme is born. I can tell because I see the head Croning
I'd have him in the two-star, though some of my colleagues are more conservative because of the question of where he'll play
middle of the four-star
I would move him up 2-3 spots within the tier. I think he will lead off
The stats in the tables are the players' 2016 lines, and not their PECOTA/PFM predictions for 2017. My rough guess for Goldy is 20 steals. I have him ahead of the rest of the pack because 1) that still puts him ahead of everyone else besides Myers by a fair margin and 2) I anticipate that the power will bounce back to his 2013-2015 levels and that 2016's drop in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ISO" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ISO'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ISO</span></a> was an anomaly, not a trend.
Mancini is DH-only in leagues that use standard fantasy requirements. He should be part of DH week, which I am greatly looking forward to in mid-March.
I'm a proponent of individual leagues using rules that make sense for them and make their members happy. But it is difficult to justify making a change to our series when ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo all still use last year's positional eligibility as the standard option for their leagues. My suspicion is that if we switched the series up and used your league's (and a handful of others') rules that the vast majority of our readers would be upset in the other direction.
Additionally, we do offer overall draft rankings and bid limits later this year (but long enough before draft day) that you will be able to see Desmond and Gurriel and all of your other favorites ranked alongside the first basemen to give you some specific context about where we see these guys falling out.
Myers did come up in our internal discussions as a potential bust candidate. The concerns - as I noted above - revolved more around his potential for injury and the boost in steals.
I can see some regression coming across the board as well. However, Myers is one of those players who failed to realize his ceiling for years and in terms of talent is a legitimate player. We did push him down to the bottom of the four-star tier (after having him ranked a little higher) but based on the 20/20 potential (and considering how valuable steals are in the current context), I was reluctant to push him down further.
Four-star for me.
Gurriel is only 3B eligible based on his 2016 games played.
Butler is AL-only all the way for me, assuming he even gets a job somewhere.
Valencia is 3B/OF eligible using the positional eligibility requirements outlined above. Both he and Gurriel would have been included in this article if they were 1B eligible only
Most of the staff loves him. But it's good to read the dissenting voice of a smart analyst like Jeff
Yasmany times am I going to mess that up?
His lumbering efforts out there are our comic relief
Would be easy enough
Yes for both. Rockies are talking about splitting the PT with Murphy and Wolters. I like Rupp but worry about Alfaro getting a midseason call up
You should have avoided him.
Catchers, starting on Monday
This doesn't fit the #narrative
Your focus in a 10-team mixed is on hitters who don't have a repeatable skill in the FA pool. Don't bother with "boring" guys who drive in and score a bunch but don't do much else. There are free agents like that you can easily pick up later.
I feel bad that I didn't explain this well. I make the mistake of assuming that many of my readers have been with me a long time rather than aiming my work at new and existing readers alike.
I'll use <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56761">Jean Segura</a></span> as an example, since I was excited about him last year, and nabbed him in a few leagues. I don't generate a stat based prediction, but I was expecting about $20-22 worth of stats from him in 2016. I wouldn't have bet that, however, because he was coming off of two poor seasons and there was (minor) risk that he could have lost his job in Arizona. My bid or "bet" in NL-only was $17. I assumed this would land him in nearly every league I was in, and if someone was willing to push Segura to $18 or higher that the risk was enough that I didn't want to pay the full sticker price.
The lower the risk, the more likely I am to push a player to the value of his mechanical prediction. The higher the risk, the less likely I am to do so.
I hope this makes sense.
Yep. Will fix later
Yep, this is batting average based, although the attached spreadsheets due provide an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> formula for 5x5.
Fixing the error.
Adding it right now.
Yes, that sums it up well.
That's the beauty of baseball. Anything can happen
I missed this in March, but thanks!
(the bit wouldn't have worked with Bellows...ssssssh)
That should say 2015 and 2016
Here are the data points from 2016 and 2016 for each league.
Top 10 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=MI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('MI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">MI</span></a> $310
Eh, you're probably right
Seventy games at 1B. Nothing in the OF. (H/t baseball reference)
The latest I saw is he could still begin his rehab in about a week if th ankle injury isn't serious. He could be a contributor but shoulder injury recovery is often difficult to predict
You could make that case for Perkins as well. The categories are far from perfect.
(when I say "turning a loss", this is based on his average salary/draft position, not what he has earned YTD)
He's turning a loss but you're correct that he shouldn't be at zero and isn't in the bottom ten. I'm going to review and fix. Thanks.
He'll slip, but will still do enough to produce Top 50 value.
That column is on my short list, so that sounds like a winner.
It's a BA league. However, I do agree with you that there is an inefficiency in the expert leagues in terms of valuing players with his skill set. Batting average in particular is significantly undervalued, in my opinion.
This is the kind of witty repartee you can see IN PERSON at the Baseball Prospectus event at Citi Field on JULY 9. I don't know WHY I'm putting so many THINGS in CAPS!
That and a ground ball rate that's 12th overall over the last year. Check out his peripherals over the last calendar year compared to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60655">Garrett Richards</a></span> (I like a healthy Richards better, but still...)
I'd like to see a few more solid outings, particularly for a pitcher given his track record when it comes to health. I agree that the stuff is legit, and he could be a four-star guy if he stays healthy and maintains this consistency.
Innings limit, not quite an elite whiff rate. A second look makes me think that maybe he should have been listed a few ticks higher.
He was on my final cut of pitchers; there were 4-6 left below 100 on that list.
I considered it with Lackey. Lynn is hurt and I can't in good conscience put a Rockies pitcher with 56 2/3 innings total and 23 innings at Coors (and a 6.65 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> in those innings) in an elite tier.
He could stand in for a number of the one-star pitchers for now.
Three star if he can make all his starts.
I agree. Doug is very perceptive and a great writer and analyst (he's also a great follow on Twitter).
I thought about including both Waino and Miller in the one-star tier (as I said in the intro, the one-star and not ranked players are fairly interchangeable) but after watching his last start I decided to leave him out. He is getting more/better break on his curve but is still having difficulty throwing it for strikes. Without the consistency on that pitch, he's not going to generate a lot of strikeouts. I see some bounce back - and I'd be fine putting him in the one-star tier - but I have a hard time recommending him to anyone in a money league right now.
10th or 11th, depending on how you feel about Sano.
firmly in the three-star.
Lowrie should be here (I had him at third from the preseason and didn't catch him for this update), although given the lack of sustained good health I'd have him somewhere around Utley, and maybe even in the one-star tier.
I should have left the positional explanations from the preseason completely intact. Yes, Castro will appear tomorrow with the shortstops.
He's OK as a short term fill-in but hasn't done anything to distinguish himself as a viable replacement for d'Arnaud long term. Additionally, Plaw's arm is a big issue.
There was a time when the expert leagues did have earlier bidding so that it could be of more use to people bidding in their home leagues. At some point that practice was dropped because the stat service(s) couldn't accommodate the alternate timing.
Ask the guys who write the FA watch if they can recommend more FAAB bids.
was sorely tempted to make the obvious Big Lebowski reference here.
Matt Winkelman of PHI Minor Thoughts and The Good Phight passed along the following about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68855">Jerad Eickhoff</a></span>:
"Eickhoff threw (his curve) in his last four starts last year; the reason he was slider-heavy early was because he couldn't find the feel for the curveball with the seams on the major league ball. The only thing the Phillies have changed is putting emphasis on developing a usable changeup."
I thought we agreed we wouldn't discuss this
It's hard to say given the Braves' history, particularly since they haven't had many top flight prospects in recent memory to manage along these lines. I would say it's a possibility.
In real life/based on <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a>? Perhaps. In fantasy, it's difficult to predict Smith is going to be better than the 64th best hitter than Hamilton (<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> 5x5, 15-team mixed) was in 70% of a season in 2015.
It's a fantasy/valuation comparison, assuming that most fantasy leagues do NOT use <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>. In terms of real life skills you are correct.
We do this in my Roto keeper league as well.
Yep. Still suspect he'll be up at some point to play OF. He has an opt out that he can exercise on May 1. Move him down to $3 or $4. Give Ced Hunter and Goeddel another buck each. Another crappy NL-only situation to avoid.
I saw that after I submitted this to editing.
Feel to move him back up/Betances back down, but the risk of aggravating the injury/making it worse (plus the low reward of 30 games or so of saves even if nothing goes wrong) makes me inclined to leave him there or add only $1 back to Miller's price.
One drawback to the "frame" I use in these articles is that it doesn't "hold" the updates from prior versions. See today's article about Sandoval/why I moved him down.
It should be added to the chart later today
It was early, that type of bid was atypical, and I anticipated some bargains based on the high spending
With Jesus cut and Dae Ho-Lee added, you might say that Dipoto giveth and Dipoto taketh away
From players at the bottom. The changes listed above are for players with salaries of $10 or more
One more on Friday
Check out the Tout Wars website. There is a chat for each of the auction leagues. The NL chat was pretty faithful to the order, but there are a handful of gaps.
I'd have to go back and look, but I was looking at Jungmann, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56957">Tony Watson</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58921">Tanner Roark</a></span>, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66213">Zack Wheeler</a></span> there (I think).
The answers to your questions all sort of tie together, but I will try to answer them individually.
1) As 1B eligible players, Montero and Norris would be worth a little less...probably $1-2 But not that much less. The flattening of value due to position scarcity matters more with players at the top (like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58548">Buster Posey</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103751">Kyle Schwarber</a></span>) than it does for players in Norris and Montero's range. Additionally, the swingman rule in Tout pushes them back up a little bit. (run the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> with five outfielders and one UT versus four OF and two UT and you will see what I mean).
2) The shallower the league, the better the 30-2-1 distribution is in theory. In a 12-team mixed where your replacement level hitter is someone like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70301">C.J. Cron</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46607">Trevor Plouffe</a></span>, counting your pennies so you can get a $1-2 bargain on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Daniel+Murphy">Daniel Murphy</a></span> is silly. Go for 2-3 big guys at the top and don't sweat your endgame. In an NL-only, though, the replacement level player is terrible. A grand total of 11 hitters who weren't purchased at auction in NL Tout last year returned $10 of value or more. For pitchers it was even worse; just six pitchers earned $10 or more.
3) This is a complicated question that is worthy of a column. But, yes, a loss is built into the prices for the top hitters. The top 10 hitters in NL <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> earned $26 on average and cost $33. My bids in Tout reflect the typical cost, not the typical earnings at the top. But when the market decided to go past the typical earnings, I felt that it was ignoring the risk while solely focusing on the reward. There comes a point where you have to walk away from the higher level guys in an only format.
I'll post a link later this week as part of the bid limit update
It worked out that way this year in both my expert auctions.
Yes, I'd extend Martinez
Yes, maybe even more because of inflation (depending on what yours is).
You probably would need to move some money off of catcher and push it around elsewhere on offense.
My guess is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55735">Alex Colome</a></span>. But it could be <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57827">Danny Farquhar</a></span>.
I don't put much stock into spring stats, but I also am skeptical of the injury risk.
I don't foresee that, but if he does catch I'd bump him up $2-3.
Did it last year too.
Some of this is a product of 1) my belief that batting average is undervalued in fantasy and 2) the idea that RBI/runs - while important - are often overemphasized in fantasy in terms of the loss of value on a poor team. Votto will lose a little bit in those categories, but what he is lacking there he will more than make up for in BA/HR.
Hi labrat. Thanks for commenting. A few things to keep in mind.
1) The Top 150 are a composite of the rankings that <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/bret_sayre">Bret Sayre</a> and I used for LABR. The next 150 are my rankings. The tiered rankings are finalized by each writer but with staff input. I did some of the rankings. There were cases where I did not necessarily agree with the staff but moved a player up or down if multiple opinions were in a different direction.
2) Many of the players who were omitted were impacted by negative news in terms of their playing time or injury. Peralta, Maybin, Cabrera, and Ryu all had injuries or setbacks since the tiered articles came out. Kazmir's dip in velocity led to his drop. Soler is likely the biggest loser in playing time after the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47493">Dexter Fowler</a></span> acquisition.
3) Nearly all of these players are right on the cusp. In the 15-team mixed bid limits (released today) Peralta, Maybin, Cabrera, Solarte, Lamb, Spangenberg, and Travis all have $1-2 bids. They're right on the cusp.
In a standard mixed format, you definitely want to bump up the top guys. The shallower the league, the more the replacement level guys are interchangeable.
Keep in mind that the first edition was in late February, when Garcia was a projected starter and before the White Sox signed <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47939">Austin Jackson</a></span>. I moved Garcia down in part because I suspect the White Sox still may acquire someone at some point to replace/platoon with him.
It could be. But I suspect past a certain number of games the union is going to push back hard.
People were reacting too far in one direction with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014">Aroldis Chapman</a></span>; they're reacting too far in the other direction now with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Reyes">Jose Reyes</a></span>.
Easy to foresee a 50-60 game suspension. Hard to see how the Rockies can simply decide to sit him for an entire year without facing a grievance. Even harder to see the Rockies eating $48MM.
The rank reflects what I agree is a considerable risk but also reflects that fact that he was the 6th best SS in 15-team mixed leagues last year.
I have no idea. I'm not clear if Story starts as the SS or Adames. Story will move into these rankings if the Rockies are a little more forthright and/or news about Reyes breaks before next week.
Yes, that's why I included him on the mock team
Great job catching a typographical error
I prefer to grab the $1-2 guys. There's so much variability at the bottom that unless you're getting a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49775">Dellin Betances</a></span> or a top-shelf player, there's no need to go $3-4 (or more) on a top guy.
I think that's OK to do.
I use it as a guideline and a starting point. It's also a good reality check if I'm way ahead or behind on a player
High K/9, some expectation of a bounce back, but some of it had to do with pitching falling off later versus some quality <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=MI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('MI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">MI</span></a> options sitting around in the end game
This is a little old but still useful http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19657
Thanks for catching that.
When we were divvying up the assignments for this piece, half of us made the obligatory "all of them" joke.
Judging by Dalton del Don's write up, it sounds like he really likes Paps. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/recapping-nl-labr--stacking-dodgers-011526099.html
It happens in the CBS expert leagues. LABR and Tout are both pretty tight, and if it did happen in LABR, it probably happened 10-15 years ago, at least.
There is a draft order out there at RT Sports http://www.rtsports.com/baseball/baseball-live-auction.php?LID=504356&UID=fantasybaseball&X=1457637162928 No prices on it, though.
Sure, no doubt.
I could have profiled 20-30 more relievers, but with approximately 3,500 words on the topic (along with Scooter's 5,000 or so in the NL), this is about as an exhaustive an outlook on closers-in-waiting that you will get anywhere.
Perhaps, although the same could be said for 12 team leagues with 12 vanilla strategies
For points leagues, the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> is probably best. <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=Valuation" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('Valuation'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">Valuation</span></a> is fairly apples to apples with projections versus bidding
The information wasn't entered.
Complete rosters including reserves can be found on the LABR-AL site http://www.rtsports.com/labr-al
Go to rosters, and look for the $0 dollar players.
I don't play that format but it would seem that this would help
Crawford and Ramos.
I'm sorry I missed this. I usually turn the email/comments off after about a week.
But I tend to add $3-5 to the top <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> hitters and then a $1-2 here or there for the players with more incremental differences.
Yes, this is what I recommend.
He was erroneously in the OF. This should be fixed now.
I'll talk to George about it and see if we can find a solution.
I like him better than a lot on the staff, and could see an argument for him in the one-star group, although news yesterday of a core muscle injury gives me pause.
He could outdo the ranking above quite easily.
To be clear, I'm not endorsing a pitcher throwing a 95 MPH fastball at a hitter because he's pissed off about being "shown up". I'm talking about the immediate, visceral reaction of the pitcher shouting something like "f--- you" or "run the damn bases" immediately after the home run. The former is deplorable and beyond the pale; the latter is understandable...and should be viewed as acceptable behavior.
I really enjoyed this piece. This is something I think about a good deal, particularly in recent years as social media has exposed me to a larger cross section of likeminded, progressive fans.
How we react to athletes and their behavior off the field is as interesting as how athletes behave on it. Bat flips give many fans joy, and when a curmudgeonly columnist complains about it, one of the most common defenses is that the player is expressing himself and is merely having an emotional moment. This is a completely fair explanation (in my view) but when a pitcher gets angry at a hitter for doing so, some of the same pro-bat flip fans get mad at the pitcher, and will say something like "if you don't like the reaction, throw a better pitch." This is problematic, and no better than the reaction of the curmudgeonly columnist. Isn't the pitcher entitled to his reaction as well, even if it is a reaction that we don't like? One of the more common defenses of bat flips or jubilant behavior on the field is that "players aren't robots." I get it: bat flips are fun while a pitcher screaming his head off at the hitter after a 450-foot home run is not. But both players are entitled to their reactions. Telling someone to suppress his negative, in-the-moment emotions is no better than telling someone to suppress his positive ones.
I'd go with Rendon in that format, unless Sano is 3B eligible for some reason.
I'd probably put him at the bottom of the ones, and a case could be made for him over 4-5 pitchers at the bottom of the tier.
Our technical area is working on this and I'm hoping it is resolved before the second update.
Yes, I would do something similar. I haven't played in any Yahoo! auction leagues, but I have played in smaller roster leagues and the principle applies.
I look at both, and probably should have mentioned <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('cFIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">cFIP</span></a> more in this piece.
Yes. I originally had him in the five-star, but multiple staff members wanted to push him down a tier due to innings.
Gave it consideration, but I generally hate ranking guys up there who haven't done it before. I agree; if he gets the raw numbers close to the peripherals, he will get there.
It's mostly feel, but some of it has to do with how your specific league plays out and looking back at past trends.
The CBS expert auctions I do every year are a good example of this. For the most part, the bids are significantly higher on the top players and there are a lot of bargains at the end. In theory, this sounds like it should be easy if you have any kind of price discipline at all. This is true for the most part, but if you're too doctrinaire in this case you can wind up with $5-10 in your pocket because EVERYONE is a bargain at the end. So what I try to do in CBS is adjust my prices up a little bit at the top so that I can make sure I buy a $260 team.
I've had the opposite happen as well. In my first year in Tout Wars NL, I spent $40 apiece on Hanley and Pujols. This was back in 2010, when they were superstars, but it still left me in a bad spot late. I have learned since then to tinker a little bit with prices based on how that league plays out.
The $1 and the "0" players are interchangeable. Right now he's at $1, but I could easily see bidding $2-3 in an NL-only auction.
I'd bump Davis up a buck and leave DeShields where he is.
As noted above, I don't do custom format bids. However, my valuation spreadsheets for the last three years have NL and AL-only values for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>.
I try to buy one or two players at a par bid price (so I don't have money on the table at the end) and then go bargain hunting the rest of the way.
I stuck a $2 bid on him.
OK, I'll add this to the tech support ticket. Thanks
The AL-only will be fixed today; planning on doing the NL-only tomorrow.
You want to start by pushing the values down to $2080 (as you said), but make sure to leave many of the $$$ at the top the same or even push them up slightly higher. The replacement player in a league like this will play a little bit like a mixed league, so the last guy on your roster will have more variability than in a "standard" NL-only. Figure out your adjusted bids first and THEN calculate inflation.
It's actually helpful
Jackson and Victorino aren't. I tried to list the "major" ones
Not in this pass. A lot of the $1 and reserve mixed pitchers are interchangeable. However, based on some of the staff's strong pro-Rodriguez feedback, I'm considering bumping him up to $2 or $3
Thanks. He should be there now
Actually, I should be able to get to this by Friday at the latest
Hmmmm, this is correct in the frame I use to load these values. I'll have to bring this to tech support and see what's happening here.
This is going to be fixed in the next update.
Should be fixed now
I've written a number of these pieces over the years. Is there something specific you're looking for? I can point you to a lot of articles but want to make sure I don't just bombard you with a lot of stuff.
Fair point. And fixed.
Villar looks like a bargain, Kang could be if the injury timetable works out. I think Marte is overpriced but seem to be in the minority. Castro is OK.
I hear what you're saying, but in only formats you lose out if there is an injury to any player.
I suspect a lot depends on a) his defensive development b) how competitive the White Sox are this year.
If he is up mid-year, I could see 5 home runs and 15 steals in half a season with a .250 BA.
I've always been a fan of the value.
yep, looks like some words fell off of my original draft on the way to editing.
We included him at second base. It's a close call, but second base is a little bit weaker than third. It was kind of explained in the opening paragraph but in retrospect I could have explained it better.
I'm assuming this is the dynasty rankings. Love the guy, but he's a teenager. Even on an aggressive track, I'm guessing 2018.
$15 is a realistic ceiling.
Can he play more than 120 games? He's Aybar if he can; I'd just like to see it first. Not much more upside than that in my mind, though (I'm sure he'll hit 20 home runs this year now that I've written this.)
I hear rumors but I'm also hearing that the Sox are reluctant to lose a pick.
I considered him for the tier, and after examining him more closely while writing up this week's AL-only piece I think he belongs in there, probably over Hech.
We discussed this on the podcast last night. I agree that he should be moved up to the high end of Tier 3 if he is healthy assuming he passes his tests and is cleared for live action in ST.
This is a really thought provoking and entertaining read, Rian.
One idea I would like to add to the conversation is another idea: the possibility that whatever is going to "replace" sabermetrics is somewhere out there on the horizon but we simply cannot see it. In his book Beyond Civilization, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=75138">Daniel Quinn</a></span> spoke to the idea that people in the late 20th Century could not describe what life would be like 100-200 years in the future any more than someone in the Middle Ages could have predicted the Renaissance. Even if you asked the smartest, most brilliant person in 1350 to describe what came after the Middle Ages, his mind simply wouldn't have been able to come up with it based on the information he had at his disposal. Some of the incremental work that is being done now isn't "new" but it will lead to further innovations and further inventions that will either move us away from sabermetrics or into some kind of Sabermetrics 2.0 (or 3.0) that we can't quite see from where we are standing at this given moment in time.
Seems a little pricey for me.
He's technically DH-only (played 12 games at DH last year, didn't play anywhere else) but <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/bret_sayre">Bret Sayre</a> had me put him in at the one-star tier earlier in the week. I like him a lot but wonder if the Rangers are going to ease him in at the minor league level for at least half a season before promoting him. And as we have seen with young guys, asking them to be a supersub is sometimes asking a lot.
We're a complicated group!
My educated guess is no. 2018 seems like a realistic target. My guess is Sandoval moves over to first and Moncada plays third, although Travis should be ready by then if no sooner. These things do have a way of working themselves out, though, even if it doesn't look like there's space for him now.
I suspect Peraza starts in the minors and gets called up sometime in June or July after Phillips is traded. The Reds have a convenient reason not to start the service time clock with Phillips in tow.
That's certainly possible, although given that Wong played 150 games last year, he's going to lose playing time even if the Cardinals play it the way you're suggesting.
I didn't forget him. The article is designed less as a comprehensive look at every player in the league and more as a look at some options at the top and some at the bottom.
I have him at short, but if I were to rank him here I'd put him at the top of the two-star/bottom of the three-star tier.
A case was made to include him in the one-star tier, and in my rough bid limits he's right there with the hitters at the bottom of the tier. But he is blocked at the moment by <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1113">Brandon Phillips</a></span> and with the Reds rebuilding there is next to no imperative for Cincinnati to start Peraza's service time.
There was some healthy discussion about him as we debated how the tiers should fall out. One of our writers wanted to move him down to the one-star tier based on the lack of a track record and the unlikelihood he repeats his performance. I agree with the premise, but the fact that he has a job and did produce and a three-star level last year made it difficult to move him down to the one-star tier. Forsythe is probably going to slip but with 550 at bats a 12-15 home run season with a .250-.260 batting average seems like a reasonable floor.
I reached out to a couple of Pirates writers and have submitted some amended text to editing that will be up later today. I appreciate your feedback.
He was 3B eligible for two seasons. Didn't play enough at first base to qualify.
We decided to put 1B/OF guys in the OF section
He is a decent enough option in AL-only leagues. He should start and 18-22 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> with a .260 BA are realistic benchmarks
I found clearer evidence in a Jenifer Langosch article from January 12 where she talks to Mozeliak and he said as much. So while things can change, for the moment I'm agreeing with wilymo and putting Moss ahead of Adams on the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/">depth chart</a>.
Not in this article. We did discuss him on the podcast we recorded last night.
He's DH-only eligible in many formats, though. He's OK at a $1.
February is the broad ETA.
I have him at $15 but based on our staff discussions when we were putting the tier articles together the staff would probably think that's aggressive. $12-13 is less aggressive.
No. But I also wouldn't spend over $20 on any of them.
The #2 ranking has more to do with the catchers across the board than it does with Schwarber. Him matching McCann's numbers doesn't seem unrealistic.
One starter was going to miss the cut because of Schwarber
He just missed. I see Saltalamacchia stealing some of McCann's playing time, and the upside offensively for McCann is limited.
Pierzynski starts out with the job but it wouldn't surprise me to see Flowers pick up at bats and a share of the job later on.
We talked about this on the podcast last night. It's his non-throwing shoulder, and while I have some concerns I don't feel the need to downgrade him more than this.
That's the baseline, yes. The other points in the article are what you should do after the baseline, to make sure that you don't wind up building a team that theoretically has a great deal of value but is short in two or more categories or positions.
I start by looking at inflation and then see if there is a disparity between available hitting and pitching. Then I decide if I have to dump categories based on how far behind my team is ranked. Even if I don't, I tend to add an extra dollar or two to categories that are softer in the auction/have more scarcity.
1) I tend to scale back 10-20% on rookies/injured players' projections at the beginning of my process and then upgrade as the spring moves forward, particularly if health reports are positive.
2) I try to pay attention to this somewhat, but I also try not to get too wrapped up in category strategy as the draft goes along. There are a number of draft software products that to do this but ultimately wind up sliding too much $$$ one way or the other. I am more likely to move the needle - manually - in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> or steals than I am in a category like <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WHIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WHIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WHIP</span></a>, where it is hard to tell based on one or two players what the "right" adjustment is.
3) I generally try to stay $1-2 under my bid limit for every player. Where the flexibility comes in is when prices are too high across the board or too high across a category I will adjust my bid and pay a par price.
If you have further questions, please post them here and not at the blog. I rarely if ever check that site anymore.
They were posted at the conclusion of my valuation series and can be found at this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BUnDbTaA_TebOe1HFkfHQMlxg9cu_izLdm85pFnLEIw/edit
I would definitely recommend starting with someone else's projections or bids before moving to your own projections or bids as a baseline. It took me years to reach the comfort level where I could construct my own bids. I don't think it's "wrong" to use projections instead of bids. If you are more comfortable with projections you should use them.
Here is a link to a number of articles on this topic from my old blog http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2012/03/calculating-inflation-2012.html?m=1
I suspect it will be closer to $280, simply because the $320 is an anomaly and it is safer to predict a one-year swing returning back to the norm than another anomaly.
Whoops, good catch. Also lost $6.
Thanks for the kind words. I appreciate it.
The NL pitchers have been added to the link provided in the NL hitters article.
It is less about buying health and more about not shying away from boring everyday players over risky upside fliers in deep/mono leagues.
There isn't a timetable but I did find out it is being addressed.
You could be right. I could be right. This is an entirely subjective question.
The shallower the reserve pool, the less risk averse I am, particularly if there are strict waiver rules or limited free agent pick ups or bid limits. Yes, I'd be more likely to go balanced roster in these scenarios.
I would second Swarmee's suggestion to search through the archives. This is a broad topic that is difficult to address in a comment response.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jon+Edwards">Jon Edwards</a></span> was sent to the Padres on August 21 to complete the Venable trade. The others are not complete yet.
Baseball Reference is your best bet for this type of research.
Luck always plays some factor :) :) :)
I did not see it.
There is an internal tool that bumps against <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> that generates odds for individual games based on lineups, the starting pitchers, and each team's top three relievers.
He should have been listed.
They're trying to cycle some other bats in, are out of contention, and trying to keep him healthy. But zero <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AB</span></a> does seem harsh.
Santana over Guti.
Arencibia. More likely to play.
I was not and am not. I think Seager is going to play until he shows he can't do it.
Guti for me
Yep. It was late and I was tired.
You're right. This is from a prior version of the column when it appeared that Moyer had more $$$ than he did (his bids were higher in a prior iteration of the bid program). I will have this removed
I think I figured it out. The bid program awarded Fiers to Moyer at $25. It should have awarded Fiers to Podhorzer at $30. Someone went in and manually fixed this...but didn't assign the correct price to Fiers.
I have received an answer as far as "what" happened - (the stat service made some errors) but not really as to why it happened. I'm at a loss because the stat service in question is one I have used for years - with FAAB bidding - and it has never had a glitch
Yep, you're right! Will have this removed .
Now I'm seeing that Conforto is being demoted. If that's the case, disregard what I said about Lagares. Try to hang on to Conforto on reserve if you can.
I'd go Piscotty. Think he has a better chance of breaking through for back end value in that format.
I grabbed him in Tout Wars and CBS (both NL only) a few weeks ago.
I can't speak for Mark, but if there's a stash list guy who is a FA in my deep leagues, I'm going to grab him
I know it's painful right now but Duda
Shows him as the sixth best hitter ROS, so betting on a bounce back/full health
I expect some bounce back, but I don't have much hope for a full return to form. The batted ball distance is down and he is swinging at almost everything. His approach is a complete mess, and unless he or the Nationals did some significant work on fixing what ailed him, this is likely to carry over Post All-Star.
I have the rank wrong, not the table. He was 7th overall pre-All Star. Will fix.
Between Hamilton's health and DeShields' subpar defense in center, I believe that Martin will get a healthy amount of playing time down the stretch.
Fixed. Thanks for the heads up
I have no idea why the Phillies brought him back on a three-year, $27 million deal through 2019, but I wouldn't touch Howard in fantasy.
Thanks for the kind words. Unfortunately, I messed up one of the documents and am going to have to back through the archives and see if I can pull this relatively easily. This might take me a few days if I can't.
Stashed him in two NL-only leagues so I hope so.
It is the last word of the article.
You're right; Vickrey was introduced in Tout to promote more aggressive bidding but this isn't the purpose of Vickrey. I will amend
I started Bettis in DFS with this in mind
We have $100. However, unlike Tout Wars there is no Vickrey so the winning bids aren't pared down. Part of our conservative approach is that our team is currently in second place and has very few holes. We feel comfortable waiting for a bigger need.
I need to write an article about Vickrey as I'm getting a lot of questions.
Here is an explanation http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2007/09/vickrey-method.html?m=1
I said Ray was looking for an offensive boost. I didn't necessarily say he found one :)
I too am a fan of ITunes
I like Franklin, just because i think he'll play the most. Ugh.
I'd dump him in standard mixed. Matchups in deeper mixed, keep him in mono.
He is in a quasi-platoon with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57919">Robbie Grossman</a></span>. Rasmus has played against two of the last three lefties that the Astros have faced and I'd guess he gets another two starts against those guys this week.
Bret and I have Martin in LABR mixed and I just picked him up in Tout Wars this weekend. I'm a big fan, and his ownership percentage is very low across all expert platforms.
Neither but roll the dice on Paredes's upside.
Pushing himself into deep mixed viability.
Alonso is a much better options than Solarte. He'll play more and there is more ceiling there. Solarte is fine in really deep leagues, but in a 15-team mixed he is kind of soft.
I think he's acceptable for 15 team and a matchup guy in 12 team. I agree that his peripherals speak to better results going forward.
I think that's OK
It is a different league than the one you are referencing. I'll try to clarify this next week.
If there is a trade or an injury. I believe in Lamb, and if the Diamondbacks are committed to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69508">Nick Ahmed</a></span> at SS, then it seems there isn't much room for Hill.
Only $35. Mixed $25
Yeah, nobody can quite rock a pronunciation like Mao can
I noticed that this morning after I put the update in. I'll take him out.
Should probably get a $2-3 bid at a minimum.
These are the "draft standings": where teams would have finished with their auctioned teams and no moves
Make sure you're on the correct tab on the document. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwdHI1ckpXckNXMmNCVEJGZ0YtVHRtdFE#gid=4
There are others who are high on Middlebrooks, yes
It's a good idea, but the rankings at this point are kind of in beta mode. We'll be discussing integrating things like this at the next staff meeting later this month or in early April.
If he plays he could be solid, but with Rosario and McKenry also in the picture it's muddled. He certainly could rank with some of the other catchers on this list toward the bottom.
i was away with this weekend but i should get to editing on this today.
we're going in part off of our instinct. For Souza to rank that high, he'd have to be a $25 player. He could get there, but paying that seems like folly.
The rankings were kind of a trial run thing this year. We are going to do in-season ranking updates, but the plan isn't to do customized rankings for every conceivable format. If your NL only is deep, the bid limits I generate should provide a pretty good approximation.
Different how? I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying the statistics are different?
The <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> goes off of <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>, which is a mechanical projection. These are staff rankings, which take other factors into account.
If you believe he's completely healthy, sure. However, I'd probably leave him where he is due to the inherent risk.
It can. I'm reserving judgement, but if you're auctioning this weekend I'd shave $2-3 bucks off his price in non-keeper.
I guess the heavy stuff ain't quite at its heaviest.
When you're scrolling down AL only and there's an error on the price list.
Anyway, it's fixed now.
1) There is an issue we have been alerted to that we are working on.
2) If you don't believe the skills are real, I'd agree he doesn't belong here.
Sent to editing. Thanks for the heads up
There will be a second article tomorrow but the embedded form will change as well.
I don't, but am hoping there is an announcement this week.
We're hoping to release a downloadable version of this in the next week or so; however, I cannot confirm that this is definitely something that we will do.
This Thursday and then the next two Thursdays after that.
I can tackle this in my next freestyle piece.
20%, assuming that this corresponds with a keeper/draft slot salary.
That's partially correct.
The prices are based on a 67/33 split. The market adjusts its expectations downward for the best pitchers so even if there are some disappointments, it tends to hit the mark (or come close to it) on the pitchers. Whereas the market doesn't do this for the hitters. Pitchers on the whole are less reliable than hitters, but the best hitters and the best pitchers are probably equally consistent, but the best pitchers are penalized more for their inconsistency.
I can recreate most of it w/o too much effort.
2014: Earned $21, Cost $25, 10 Best Prior Year $29
2013: Earned $25, Cost $25, 10 Best Prior Year $28
2012: Earned $20, Cost $25, 10 Best Prior Year $28
2011: Earned $23, Cost $25, 10 Best Prior Year $28
2010: Earned $22, Cost $26, 10 Best Prior Year $30
2009: Earned $18, Cost $27, 10 Best Prior Year (i can find this for 4x4 but not 5x5)
All I meant was that I like him I'm the short term but do feel that his long running injury history will push him toward a faster decline relates to his age
Braun is a little different, since so much revolves around his thumb recovery.
Here it is http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22997
I turned the SGP on and didn't use inflation.
As much as any other solid arm. In deeper leagues, I'd rather put a cheap throw on him than a middle reliever in a stronger pen.
Betances. I believe he runs with the job, and his high whiff rate could make him a top five option.
I could see doing that, more so with the $11-12 guys I have like Gregorius (who I think I might have too high in the first go 'round) and Lowrie.
Here are two articles on the subject. One from BP http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22997
And one from my pre-BP, blogging days: http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2009/03/adjusting-for-smaller-leagues.html
If you don't want to go through all of that, as a general rule players at the top should stay the same, players in the middle take moderate pay cuts and guys at the bottom get ripped off.
Write Steve. It would probably help if you subscribed to Sports Weekly.
The same thing would have happen to you last year with Corey Kluber. And Kluber's buyer would have been right, and the other managers would have been wrong.
I went through the Bat Signal questions we receive (which I admit is not scientific) and 15% of the questions came from people who play in OBP leagues. I agree that it is a superior category to OBP, but it is difficult to justify building bids for a format that 15% of people use. I have said in the past that if LABR switches to OBP that I will start using OBP as well (since Tout Wars already uses it), but I asked Steve Gardner of USA Today if LABR will switch and he said there are no plans to do so in the near future.
This includes the injury. I had him at $20 before the injury happened.
We were planning to add spreadsheet capability this year, but it obviously didn't come out with this edition. Let me check regarding the timing of this feature.
Think I'd bump him up $3
Someone had this problem with Collin McHugh. I'll let our technical folks know.
I averaged the CBS/LABR/Tout bids from last year to come up with the splits. So they are lower than 70% for hitters (I talked about this last year in my LABR/Tout recaps) but I did take all of the money left on the table and shifted it to hitting. So I think it's 68/32 for the NL and 69/31 for the AL.
Yes, that's what I would do.
Yes. Just don't do it as radically as PECOTA suggests; otherwise you're going to cash out early and wind up with 2-3 stars and a lot of scrubs.
Some of it has more to do with the pitching quality and quantity in NL versus AL than with any specific knock on Hellickson.
It is correct on the form I use to enter this, so I'm going to have to reach out to someone on the technical side to see why this is happening.
I like Hahn in that park seeing a new set of hitters; he gets a sneaky first time around bump that he would not have received had a stayed in San Diego. In Duffy's case, I'm betting on the fact that a cracked rib that he pitched with in the second half caused a lot of his problems and he should be better.
firstname.lastname@example.org is probably your best bet, although i can see it in my Chrome fwiw.
oh, i misunderstood what you were asking.
That's all PECOTA, although I can't say I disagree.
The SS article also has PECOTA projections. I started adding them to the articles once they were available to the public.
Are you asking me or the subscriber who is high on Stroman? You're preaching to the choir in my case.
The tiers are generally our spin on the rankings. We try not to simply regurgitate PECOTA, since we could simply put a list together in the order that PECOTA spits it out without any commentary whatsoever. In Kluber's case, I believe that the adjustments Mickey Callaway helped Kluber to make last year will hold and feel strongly that he will maintain top tier value (it is also worth noting that PECOTA didn't like Kluber last year either). PECOTA does a good job factoring in regression, but something I think it struggles with is factoring in real life improvement that (somewhat) negates results prior to said improvement.
I see him moving backward, but only slightly.
I think those are going to stand (which is what we did last year).
I could see Souza popping up to 10th/11th round.
If he plays 150 games, maybe.
I would need 2,000 words for this, but while not being completely risk averse is good, going after nothing but risks is a loser unless we're talking 10 team mixed where you can churn forever. Teams that took Tulo/Votto in the first two rounds last year were destroyed. The risks we should take are in the later rounds. Two years ago, I took Carlos Gomez in the 6th round of a 15 team draft and was ridiculed. That's really where the winners are: not the guys who "should" go in the late 2nd round that you pop in the first, but the guys who are mid-round picks who should be much higher and have the potential to provide 1st or 2nd round value.
I should have pointed out that Bret stops at 150 because with mutually exclusive picks we wind up with about 165 players and this is the point where we both feel that you stop using raw rankings and start filling your positional needs.
Bret was slightly higher on Desmond than I was but I had him 16th overall so taking him at 16 wasn't a significant reach in my eyes. Some of this is simply a matter of your preferences versus ours (which is great, because you're not just parroting what some "expert" is telling you to do). I have Puig and Donaldson higher than their ADP, but man they feel like reaches there to me. I hear what you're saying on Harper, but Braun is the guy I would have made the upside play for there if we had decided to go that route.
Cobb and Teheran would have been gone before our picks. In theory I could live with a Cole/Arrieta staff, but I can tell you that having done a few mocks with staffs like these, it feels awfully thin at the end.
I anticipate a platoon with Blackmon and Stubbs. It's also probably safe to guess that Cargo will miss 30 games or so and that Blackmon and Stubbs will both play when Cargo is out.
Bret was slightly higher on Desmond than I was but I had him 16th overall so taking him at 16 wasn't a significant reach in my eyes. Some of this is simply a matter of your preferences versus ours (which is great, because you're not just parroting what some "expert" is telling you to do). I have Puig and Donaldson higher than their ADP, but man they feel like reaches there to me. I hear what you're saying on Harper, but Braun is the guy I would have made the upside play for there if we had decided to go that route. If it had just been me drafting, I suspect I would have gone Tulo/Braun.
I would have passed on Wainwright if it had just been me, but Cobb and Teheran would have been gone before our picks. In theory I could live with a Cole/Arrieta staff, but I can tell you having done a few mocks with staffs like this, it feels awfully thin at the end.
If Peralta's the guy who hits 20 HR with a .260-.270 batting average, sure. If he's the guy who hits 10-15 HR with a .240-.250 batting average not so much.
And you're right, if we had taken Felix it would have changed a lot of things. It's easy to say we would have skipped Waino, but it's more likely we would have been torn on Cole/Arrieta at the turn and DeGrom later. Going 4 hitters/5 pitchers wouldn't have been ideal given how many were taking hitting early over pitching. Without Desmond's 20-25 steals, it's possible that we overreach for someone like Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar and miss out on Peralta later anyway.
Great piece as always Jeff.
I have noticed that the attitude regarding risk is quite different when it comes to injuries and rookies. Where injuries are concerned, there is a belief that a certain type of player can get injured more frequently than others and thus is a bad investment. So owners then shy away at any price and allow other owners to turn what may have been a bad investment into a good one relative to the risk. This type of analysis not only ignores the fact that the "injury prone" player might defy expectations and stay healthy but that other, so-called non-risky commodities can, in fact, get hurt. Baseball is a physical competition where everyone, theoretically, is prone to suffer and injury simply by being on the field.
Rookies are a different kind of risk. It is an unknown as to whether or not they will succeed in the short-term at the major league level, yet they are often (and with growing frequency) treated like proven commodities based on how they are priced. There is variability between how a rookie is ranked and how a rookie will perform (in both directions) yet the elite rookies frequently command prices that ignore all of the risk and solely focus on the reward.
While I agree it is an imperfect label, this is where Systematic Risk can apply. I have seen this frequently occur in keeper leagues where a fantasy owner collects a roster of players with no track record and the performance baseline is an entirely open question. These teams can succeed - of course- but frequently rookies are hoarded in the hopes that they will all become Mike Trout. This obviously cannot happen, but this won't stop an owner from undervaluing established production baselines in favor of unknown production.
I generally agree that risk is overblown. But in some leagues where rookies are concerned the risk is ignored almost completely.
I see your point, although to me this ties more into the need to provide draft rankings (which we are unveiling this year) and bid limits (which we have been doing for the last two years for mono and mixed leagues) earlier than we do now. This would provide answers for these types of questions, since presumably Rendon's dollar value or draft ranking would be bumped up a little bit for his multi-positional eligibility.
Sounds about right. He could be a poor man's Ellsbury, and as I noted I think Ellsbury is somewhat undervalued.
Should say offensive or hitter value. I will have editing fix.
I have thoughts along the same lines. He is a deep mixed back end guy or standard mixed reserve who could pay dividends if healthy.
I agree; in H2H the replacement level concept plays out differently.
If you agree with PECOTA, yes.
You are so earnest sometimes, Ben.
He could sneak ahead of Miller and get some playing time at shortstop, but the upside isn't particularly high. I'd probably put him in the top of the 0-star category if he beat Miller for the job in camp.
The PFM and my values are slightly different, but I have Reyes generating 14.5% of his value from that batting average with that PFM projection. If you dropped Reyes batting average to A Ramirez's level, I show him losing $2.65.
It would only slightly reduce Reyes's value. Contextual changes have to be extremely significant to move the valuation needle.
That's pretty much what my bid limits do. Look for the first edition of those late this month.
The list cuts off at 25. There's really a nominal difference between Flores - the last SS listed here - and the next 3-4 guys, which includes Mercer.
I have him 27th. He could easily slide into the one-star though; most of these guys are interchangeable.
Daily Fantasy Sports. Like our partners at Draft Kings.
Generally speaking, the experts incorporate some of this difference into the best players's price but don't have the guts to go all the way. I know that Scott White of CBS Sports did it in CBS's 12-team mixed, but in Tout Wars mixed, owners generally stop in the mid-40s or so.
One of my favorite things about being on the BP staff (as opposed to writing at my own blog) is hearing all of the differences of opinion. Sometimes hearing enough intelligent opinions on a player I didn't like or liked changes my mind. I still owe the rest of the BP staff for getting me into Rendon's corner a year ago at this time.
I plugged in a 180/80 split (which is the "standard" setting). This is a 69% budget for hitting. And I did check and can confirm that the PFM does indeed add up (it is spending the $2160 on the top 168 hitters).
I have told this story a few times, but it's worth sharing here.
I was at a Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs game with the ESPN Fantasy guys. Eric Karabell had just come back from the All-Star game, where he and Eno Sarris of Fangraphs were interviewing the fantasy types while everyone else was flocking to Jeter. One of Eric/Eno asked Frazier why he was running again. Frazier said that every other offseason he had been drinking beer (he doesn't partake during the season) and last offseason he decided not to in an effort to be lighter in ST, work on his baserunning. I don't know if that means that Frazier is going to steal 20 again, but it sounds like he made a commitment to making steals a part of his game.
Perhaps significantly was overstating it, but on the Yankees Posada was locked in to the DH in 2011 and in 2012 the Yankees shuffled a number of older players through that slot in the lineup.
I'm not a fan, although I do agree that the power upside is there. My colleague Nick Shlain ranked Trumbo as a two-star and I agree with that assessment. I could see Trumbo breaking into the three-star if everything broke right. The batting average is what keeps him down for me, especially in standard mixed formats.
Yep. He played all but two games at third base last year; not even a league with a five game requirement will let him slot anywhere else.
If Bret Sayre had been putting the rankings together, he'd probably be a no-brainer five star. $30 or so is my threshold for five-star and I have Rendon at $29. So right on the cusp (I also have him 19th overall, so lower than the current NFBC by quite a bit
He could be great, but he is 19 years old and hasn't signed with a team yet. He probably deserves a dynasty ranking, but the tier article is for 2015 mixed leagues only.
I have him right behind Profar (and I'd have him ahead of Profar if this were not a staff project). He could earn $15-20 with that speed, but this assumes a year where he has staying power. Micah Johnson looms, and Bonifacio becoming a super sub at some point during the season wouldn't surprise me.
$7 bid in NL only, which puts him below this group. If you bump him up to the one-star, you're almost entirely betting on him hitting .300 again.
If he sticks, he could be a three-star guy easily, but the risk makes him a low two/high one star for me. This is probably controversial (I have him significantly lower than NFBC), but I don't have a good feeling about a guy with well over a 40%+ whiff rate.
He was traded for Andrew Heaney this winter
I half agree with you. I don't really like DFS because I enjoy riding with a player all year long (or for multiple seasons in my keeper leagues) and the money I play for isn't going to make or break me financially. Sure, it's nice to get that check in October but I could play for free and enjoy it just as much.
That being said, I love to win and I hate to lose. There is a certain joy in picking a prospect and seeing him make it, but finishing 5th or 6th and having a bunch of prospects that made it isn't as satisfying to me as winning. You are right, though: everyone plays for different reasons. If you would prefer to enjoy waiting for the inevitable joy of Carlos Gomez when he eventually made it, then you have to follow your bliss and do what makes you happy.
Many years ago, John Benson was asked to name a sleeper for a panel discussion and mentioned Tony Womack. He was practically ridiculed for naming such a fringy, joke of a prospect. Benson admitted that Womack was no high-tier prospect but believed that because of the opportunity and the speed that Womack would provide excellent value. Womack eventually flamed out, but that rookie year he was terrific. Speed is a great tool to target in fantasy drafts but it is also a lesson in looking past our prospect biases and trying to make sure we grab production.
I think you're right, which is why I pivoted after the introduction and talked more about the perils of rookie pyrite, which I have noticed even the savviest experts out there fall for every year. In early NFBC drafts, Kris Bryant is going in the 7th round and Javier Baez is going in the 8th. I like both of these players long term, but this seems extremely risky from my perspective.
I know Bret Sayre looks at some of the "who is reading/subscribing to BP" but I think a survey is a good idea. I will ask.
It depends a lot on the player/team/situation. Often it is nothing more than confirmation bias, but teams are just as likely to suffer to confirmation bias as we are and give their young kids a chance to play. I think you have to ride that hot hand as a fantasy owner while full well knowing that you can't bet too heavily on the hot month since it is likely that some slippage is coming.
A lot of this obviously upon your league's format. Trout was a no-brainer nearly everywhere in 2012 unless you were in a 10-team mixed league with no reserve list.
There are a lot of ways to go about this, and it would be better served in a longer article, but here are a few general rules of thumb.
1) Playing time. Look for every day players who are undervalued. Marlon Byrd was "boring" but barring a trade was going to play. Casey McGehee, Juan Uribe, and James Loney all fit this profile. No, you're not going to win with these guys alone. But at worst you break even and get runs/RBI every day.
2) Sneaky speed. "One-dimensional" players like Raj Davis contribute more than it seems and earn more than you'd expect.
3) Graybeards. Older players who seem finished have more of a likelihood of a dead cat bounce/producing than a rookie who might be up in September.
I would, given the scarcity dump that his catcher eligibility will give him (and I was guessing 25 HR from him as an outfielder, so we're on the same page with this).
There are a few players like Butler, Singleton, Vogt, and Swisher who just missed the cut.
He's at the top of those hitters in paragraph three, perhaps a little lower since the scarcity advantage disappears if you use him at first base.
We will be including DHes with the 1B in tomorrow's tier article, where Carter will be ranked to give you an idea of where we see him fitting in.
He's a high risk/highreward player but at $2 I'd definitely keep him at CI/UT, even in a 12-team mixed. If by standard you mean 10 teams that's a closer call. I'd probably keep him, but the frustrating thing about a player like this is that if you try to ride the good streaks you might have him on your bench for one of those crazy 3-4 home run weeks where Carter lights it up. He's a keep for me at that price, though.
It appears that Santana will mostly play first this year. Nick Swisher/Brandon Moss' health could change this, but my educated guess is that Santana is the first baseman
Rosario's picture isn't as clear. A move off of catcher seems inevitable, but where does he go? Justin Morneau isn't getting benched and if the OF is healthy it is quite full. My guess is Rosario gets at least 20 games at catcher and keeps his eligibility for one more season
I generally agree. This is where markers like adjusted OPS and context adjusted stats (age appropriate) are more important, particularly for a 19-year-old like Smith.
I have to dig up the link, but I covered this topic (and came to the conclusion you did) in an article I did back in 2013.
He's currently listed as the DH on the depth chart. I'm somewhat skeptical, but with Justin Smoak as the only viable DH option, I suspect Navarro will get 450-500 at bats. Josh Thole projects to make the roster, so I don't think the Jays keep Navarro on the bench in case of emergency
I am fairly confident in Mesoraco maintaining these levels. I'd give him the $12 deal.
Yes, I'd probably move him up to the middle-bottom of the one-star catchers.
Rankings are complied by the author with feedback from the fantasy team. The author has final say. In the case of McCann, he was a high end 2-Star for me and two strong opinions to push him up were enough to tip the scales.
The write-ups are all mine. With the plethora of articles this week, you'll get to hear plenty of voices from BP on a number of catchers.
5x5 with batting average, yes
I had McCann in the two-star in the initial draft but both Jeff and Bret dissented. He could crack the $20 earnings barrier but hasn't earned more than $18 since 2011. Given the aging roster I'm not sold on McCann accruing that many AB at DH. He's solid but I'm not as sold on the upside of McCann as some of my colleagues are.
Tim Federowicz is the projected backup and also is right handed. Griff Erickson is the most likely catcher on the depth chart who is a switch hitter or left handed but would be stretched on the good side of a platoon. The upside on Norris is he solves righties and hits 18-20 HR in a full time role. The downside is he kills your BA and keeps chasing pitches below the zone. Your assessment is about right. That tier is about $5-9 in mixed leagues and $12-15 in mono
That sounds about right. Some of this ranking ties into the idea that Mesoraco will get 525 plate appearances or so this year.
He ranked 35th among mixed catchers last year.
Yes. There will be two articles: one for AL only and one for NL only.
I have him 27th, just a shade outside of this group.
Not sure if you have this flagged to receive additional emails, but we're planning on doing articles for NL and AL only by position so should have specific write ups for deeper league guys who don't make it into this article.
I would recommend doing some fundamental reading on SGP. Unfortunately, the industry standard on the subject is not a cheap book to buy. However, without a basic understanding of SGP on your end, I could offer more explanations and your likely response is going to be along similar lines of the "I don't see the benefit" or "I don't understand" comments you have provided earlier. Addressing the origins and validity of SGP is beyond the scope of a 3,000 word article, let alone a response to a comment.
Here is a link for options to buy this book (this is not an endorsement of this book nor do I receive any compensation): https://www.google.com/search?q=art+mcgee+how+to+value+players&oq=art+mcgee+&aqs=chrome.1.69i59l2j69i57j0l3.5097j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8#q=art+mcgee+how+to+value+players&tbm=shop
SGP is a 25-30 year old industry standard for player valuation. It doesn't make it "right" (and I'd cringe at anyone who offered a "that's the way it has always been done" argument), but it does put the burden or proof for saying that it is wrong or misguided on those who don't believe in its validity.
The explanation of how the values were derived was explained in painstaking detail within the body of the article.
The short answer to why the 170th hitter was worth $8 is that as with nearly every SGP model I have come across, values are spun off of the final auction or draft rosters, not off of the best 168 hitters at the end of the season. If you used this methodology, you are correct that the 168th hitter would indeed be worth $1 (in fact, he might be worth slightly less depending upon how you valued batting average) but the best hitter would be worth significantly less than $32. If you are having a retrospective auction, this information would be of great use to you, but if you were auctioning before the season started, this method wouldn't be practical in any way, shape, or form.
The general assumption with these pieces is that we are evaluating rosters as they currently stand. It goes without saying that any team could make further moves negating their current roster composition: such a disclaimer kind of has the wimpy hedge that many readers dislike.
I wrote about this at my blog (and I think you were one of the early readers), but it would probably be a good follow up. Basically, you have to pay par for one or two players at some point in an extreme situation to ensure you spend your money, but you still don't want to overpay just to fit a tier.
I don't agree with it either, but several web sites/magazines have advocated this approach. I'm not creating a strawman out of whole cloth.
I think the cutter helped (and I alluded to it in the piece), but my point was that I think a 2.89 ERA in Yankee Stadium would have been difficult to replicate had he stayed there.
I didn't write that one, but I think the assumption is that Rivera was going to start and Grandal was either going to first or getting shipped out.
I agree. I thought it was worth mentioning, but I wouldn't oversell it.
a little later than I had hoped, but here is the link to the AL/NL values. I'm hoping to add the mixed values next week when the articles go up.
I'd think it slightly goes down, but most of the risk of a hamstring issue comes with running, so if he's going to bat, there will always be some kind of risk.
they will be available by the end of the week at the latest.
Actually, there is a criteria in the BBWAA guidelines for the award that does allow for interpretation that pitchers "shouldn't" win the award.
I'm not one of the BP voters who excluded Kersh from my ballot, but based on the criteria the BBWAA has put out for the award, it is perfectly reasonable to do so.
It's something I can take a look at after the series is over. It's a good idea, but at about 13,000 words across four articles I'm already giving people a lot to digest.
Funny, he earned $15 on the nose.
It's funny, Hicks was in my original draft but I removed him.
He's only 25 so he certainly could emerge as a late bloomer. However, he really cratered in 2014 and is likely to need almost a full year in the minors to put it all together. He has a narrow window to prove himself before the Twins wave of prospects overtakes him. My guess is that he won't make it; toolsy players who don't put it together by this age typically don't.
This is like the Bugs Bunny cartoon where he batted against the entire team.
I'll keep this in mind in the future (this is not sarcastic). However, one of the primary goals of language is to communicate without confusing the reader. While the usage may have been technically incorrect, I doubt anyone reading this account thought that Hunter Pence stepped out of the batters' box, stepped into his flying contraption, and flew out to right field.
It's a good idea. I could probably put into terms like that for some players but not so much for others, depending upon how good my memory is/was. Maybe what I'll do this winter in a future article is dig a little deeper on a few cases like this per your suggestion.
The blame isn't entirely his, of course.
Thanks for catching that clear transposition.
Good point, though I suspect he's a back-up wherever he lands.
Yep. I profiled him a week or two ago.
i owned miley for a while in one league until i traded him for hitting. i noticed that.
I would, especially at home. He's probably a better option than either one of those guys.
His splits are radical, although some of that is that he simply takes LHBs lunch. Surprisingly, the Brewers are a middle-of-the-pack offense against LHP. The Braves are Top 10 this season, but seem to be scuffling against both LHP and RHP right now.
Something I'm hoping to add to this column next year is context. I use a real 15-team expert league's free agent pool to write up the deep mixed pitchers. I'm wary of Locke for the reasons you stated, but the other choices are worse IMO.
Seems doubtful unless the Royals run away with it or fall out of the race.
16-team AL-only? I think he's probably a borderline keep at that price if the league is THAT deep.
We normally ask that you send these questions to the Bat Signal (since it is a premium service), but since it is your playoffs I will give you a freebie, with the hopes that you consider the upgrade to The Bat Signal for 2015. It really is a great service! (end of sales pitch)
I think you have to roll with Carrasco, particularly in a league where you're using a ratio stat for Ks instead of a weighted one. You might lose Ks anyway, but ratios generally don't penalize you as much.
I'd go with Hughes over Shoemaker.
no arguments from this corner. i have him in my AL only and I'm a fan.
Betts for me. I think he has a much better chance of making an impact down the stretch.
The best extra inning game I ever saw in person was Travis Wood's 8 innings of perfect ball in Philly in 2010. But I have written about that elsewhere.
The Game 6 NLCS was another one I thought about.
This was my backup choice. I didn't do it because I figured someone else would.
I fell asleep on the living room couch at some point in the 11th. I woke up to the sound of fireworks, saw the TV was on and it was 3:55. I figured I was dreaming. It wasn't until the next morning that I realized this actually happened.
A great game. I'm just a little too young to remember it.
We have it, but only one owner used it.
I agree with this point. I don't mind the PED guys being left off as much as I mind writers handing in empty or near-empty ballots at a time when there are so many amazing candidates.
His defense would have to have been historically bad. It was not
1) We decided on $350 because we wanted to eliminate the crazy 8-for-8 dump trades that were destroying the league but still wanted some mechanism to play for the future.
2) You are not allowed to reserve active AL players. You can have an unlimited number of minor leaguers and players on the DL but once they are activated you have two transaction periods to activate them. And you cannot FAAB minor leaguers or players on reserve in this league either.
3) I blew threw all of my FAAB in this league early in 2013 for that reason, and also put the early bids on Morales and Drew (as trade chips) for the same reason.
There are four guys on the ballot with definitive or all but definitive ties to PEDs: Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, and Sosa. McGwire and Sosa were likely to fall off of the ballot anyway, particularly since I do agree with you in theory and believe that some of the voters will err on the side of knocking players like Sosa/McGwire off of the ballot. While anything is possible, I have a hard time believing that Bonds/Clemens are going to drop all the way from the 35% or so range each player is at now to below 5%.
So they're going to knock Bonds and Clemens off of the ballot in 2022 instead of 2027 while knocking a significant number of non-users off earlier? Good job, good effort.
The arguments against (and I'm merely playing devil's advocate here) are:
1) He was an offensive only catcher and defense should count too in a player's overall profile.
2) Since he did play in such a high octane offensive context, his numbers should be viewed in the context of his era, not simply versus all catchers all time.
My colleague Eugene Freedman has swayed me to the belief that catchers are generally underrated, particularly by mechanical valuation systems like WAR. Where a 62-63 WAR is a reasonable baseline for other hitters, catchers should not be judged in the same manner.
It's possible you are right; however; most of the banging for the drum for Blyleven in his later years on the ballot took place because of where we were with analytics and advanced data in his last three or four years on the ballot. He is good example of a case where the extra time helped him out a great deal because people looked at him quite differently in 2006 than they did five years later in 2011.
Nothing. I think he belongs, but I think some don't see him as an obvious case.
He's a 27-year-old career minor leaguer who had a strong month for the Yankees before the league caught up to him. If he's lucky, he'll put up a solid two months and force his way into the conversation for a starting job next year, but it seems more likely that his future is as a utility infielder, insurance at AAA.
Don't know. It seems like the Cardinals would rather wait for Molina and muddle through.
John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer reported on the Reds possible interest in Murphy this morning. He wasn't specific on players the Mets would potentially want or what the asking price would be.
Thanks for the heads up. This has been fixed.
Almost any starter's value would drop outside
of Petco, so yes.
Re: Romo, the advice I always give on deposed closers is that if the guy in the ninth is going well, he's going to keep the job, unless the guy who is struggling is one of the rare studs like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, or the retired Mariano Rivera. Even big contracts don't necessarily mean an automatic return to the role. If Casilla pitches well, I think he keeps it.
If you need the help in ERA/WHIP, I think any of those guys with the exception of Haren are potential waiver candidates in 4x4. Erlin is definitely not worth owning in 4x4 compared to even your garden variety middle reliever. Garza and Burnett are a coin flip comparably. I might hold onto Haren. Liriano is a question of do you believe in his upside or not. Obviously, you (probably) have an innings cap to think about so that means you probably can't just chuck all of these guys overboard.
Amen on point #1 for Roto leagues, Jeff. I've seen too many owners lose competitive leagues because they refuse to bail on a category that either cannot be won or where the market price to move in the category is too high. Yet teams insist that they "have" to play all 10 categories at all costs. This is often a losing strategy.
A cursory Google search finds multiple reports linking Rollins to Detroit. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it has been reported.
It's possible that Suarez continues to perform at this level, though from what I've seen in the games and the scouting reports (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=81) even if his progression in the high minors this year is 100% legit, it's too simple to assume that his MLE of that high minors slash line is going to be a carbon copy of what he did in the minors. Color me crazy, but I'd like to see more than 60 MLB plate appearances before assuming this is Suarez's true performance level.
I'd probably hold onto Rutledge in case of injury to a similarly priced starter. Broxton at $1 is OK but unless your league has some unorthodox rules I would imagine you can find a cheap, similar FA reliever.
that last sentence should say "second and third tier hitters"
For me, Tyson Ross in Seattle against that putrid offense and home is an auto start.
He's a moderate buy low in 12-team mixed. He's capable of putting up a 15-15 season which is definitely a downgrade from expectations but still worth a 5th OF slot, particularly given the somewhat depressed offensive context his year.
11 team isn't much different from 12 team for me. Probably useful, and based on Bret's recommendation at least worth a home start in that favorable park.
Think I'd go with Odor. Better park, better lineup, more upside.
Probably a match-up play in pitcher friendly parks (SD/SF). I don't have a good feeling about him at all.
Yes; I think Salazar has a long road back.
It would be interesting to perform this exercise in 4-5 years.
I use auction population as opposed to MLB universe, which I suspect is what's making the difference. It appears that the PFM is penalizing the worst BA hitters and rewarding the best hitters more. I think this actually makes sense for a projection model (if you're bidding off of a robust BA projection, you probably want to avoid paying the full freight) but for retrospective results it does not.
I think I'd just stick with Grandal.
Who are your free agents? If it's an NL-only you're probably stuck. In a 12-team mixed, maybe there's a better way.
Possibly, although I suspect Carlos Torres is the guy who gets the next shot.
It's going to be one of Butler or Gray, Meyer, Wisler, Cosart, Hellickson, Stroman, Nelson, and Ramirewz.
Given how Springer has performed, I think you have to assume the future risk and worry about next year next year. Do you have a good chance of winning?
There's something to be said for the point you're making. I don't think much of Pastornicky, but he probably deserved more of an opportunity than he got.
In only and deeper mixed, yes. They need an offensive infusion, and if Medica hits he'll play.
The difference in league sizes is part of it. The DH/no DH is part of it as well. You need more guys on the back end in NL leagues with versatility/utility.
Agreed. Some of the concept behind this game is maximizing value, and often that is done by trading guys off of your roster and getting superior stats from others.
Can I change my ETA on Aguilar please?
The threshold is 25%.
Hector Santiago was moved to the pen today, not that anyone was considering him anyway.
Whether it's Tom Milone or someone else, I believe Pomeranz will eventually be in the A's rotation.
The K rate won't be that high, correct, but he will be helped by that park.
Crawford is worse in his career against LHP than against RHP (although not by much). Do you see something in his approach that makes you believe this is sustainable, or are you merely relying on this year's sample size to date?
Based on his career numbers, I like Crawford as a road play in a 15/16 team mixed. 15 HR in 710 career PA on the road versus 4 in 658 at home. Again, I'm not saying Crawford is anything special, but he's a better play than some of the worst options in deep mixed.
CBS, Yahoo, and ESPN draw from different pools of owners. CBS seems to have more only and dynasty leagues which skews ownership percentages up. ESPN has a lot of standard mixed, which by their definition is a 10-team league.
It isn't; sometimes the advice here is "don't buy"
I wouldn't, though I'm a big Venable believer even after this awful start.
I stashed both Grichuk and Peterson in the CBS Analysts NL-only "expert" league.
And he hit a HR last night.
Niese for me
It could happen but it is far less likely. Also, I'm not in the business of going to par on my 70/30 bid limits so if I get six hitters at $2 under par apiece I'm not going to spend as much as I would if I simply jumped to 85/15 and spent like a drunken sailor.
If you spend $100+ on pitching, you will generally have a hard time winning. It's not impossible, but you need to pretty much nail it on the offensive side.
Any concerns about Franco's super slow start, particularly in terms of impact for a 2014 call up?
The example I gave above assumed a +1 based on market price, not based on my 85% bid valuations.
What everyone is commenting on here is a variation on the theme I mentioned in the piece. Yes, you can say "I'm budgeting 85% for my hitters" but if you don't manually adjust to the market's 70% reality you're going to spend 90-95% of your budget on hitting. There is a chance you can win that way because of the inherent volatility in pitching, but 5x5 makes it more difficult because you have to grab those strikeouts, and there is some predictability in pitching, even though it is less predictable than hitting.
Well, that's because PECOTA and the other systems are using a 70/30 split more or less.
We use the 70/30 valuation to measure retrospective value because it is a closed market. We could use 50/50, but it's not particularly instructive to do so.
I do the same thing (take what the auction gives). I just make sure to use a 70/30 baseline (more or less) so I don't cash out on the first 6 pitchers and spend $150-170 on my staff.
Another way of putting this is let's say you decided in February that Clayton Kershaw HAD to be on your team. You put a $50 price tag on him, up from $35. For a $15 change, it's irrelevant whether or not you take that $15 from hitters or pitchers in the aggregate. If you decide to go 55/45 with your entire team, though, you can't simply add all of that money to the pitching pool on the whole. It's not workable.
Right, but again at this point you're making a manual adjustment that puts you in a position where you're ultimately allocating your money similarly to the market.
I almost never buy a "balanced" team for the reasons you're stating, but there is a limit from a budgeting perspective in both directions. If your prices tell you to spend $220 on pitching and $40 on offense, all the trading in the world isn't likely to help you. There is a logical, rational limit to how far you can diverge from the crowd.
Right, but then you're simply adjusting your prices based on the realities of the market, which was one of my points above.
I'm not sure what my conclusion has to do with a retrospective auction.
Not a bad call on Stanton :)
McAllister, Gibson, Johnson, Milone, Gonzalez, Cosart, Oberholtzer, Keuchel, Young, Peacock,
No. And the same is true the other way...hitters who pitch don't count either.
My premise was never that all $1 players are the same.
If you read the article carefully, you would have noted that I had more than $1 to bid until player #150 (Hector Santiago). It wasn't a round-by-round, dollar situation until near the very end....with nine players left to go. By this time, the players that could have been "stolen" from me were $2 pitchers. I happened to get both but - again - the marginal value of saving money earlier to gain two dollars in end game value most certainly would not have been worth it even if I failed to get these pitchers.
Hit post by mistake
...but I'm very unlikely to get a $30 player for $27. If I dismiss an opportunity to get a +2 bargain to save money for the endgame, it is highly likely I am doing so to accrue profit that I will derive anyway simply due to standard variance that appears in every endgame environment.
I responded to this point at multiple points in this thread.
Our points are not mutually exclusive. You are correct that in a universe where 12 owners are Mike Gianella clones that dollar derby is a losing game, and the owner with $2 to spend per player will swoop in and get the best bargains. The reality is that the probability that every owner IS using my prices is close to absolute zero. This also fails to take into account that due to positions getting filled it isn't always possible for an owner to outbid me on a better bargain even if he agrees it is a better bargain.
You also sidestepped my question about where the extra money comes from to have $2 per player in the endgame. The marginal value derived by having extra money in the endgame is at best nullified by ignoring bargain opportunities early but at worst a losing value proposition. Typically there is less variability at the front end of the auction. I might get a $4-5 player for $1 in the endgame
Your exercise asked me to include $2 players.
Something else you've missing is that nearly everyone was in the $1-2 range at this point. No one had $12/6. Can't steal from me if you can't outbid me.
(This wasn't an accident either. I was tracking this carefully. I'm sure some owners did want my end game bargains but were out of money)
So where does the extra money to outbid me on these six players come from? Do you get a magical $266 to spend?
No. Every dollar you keep in reserve for the end game is money you decide not to spend earlier. Prior to my end game, I spent $188 on $217 of (inflated) value. If I decide to opt out of earlier bargains so I can have more money for the end, it has to be in a situation where I'll get more bargains at the end by holding back.
I can't COUNT on the other 11 owners always not taking "my" guys. But I CAN count on getting some of my guys and generally speaking getting enough value at the end. I'm never going to buy 6 players I perceive to be worth $6 because there is always variability in the endgame.
To your point about players not being bargains because no one else wants them, this isn't relevant to whether or not I think they've bargains. They're still bargains by my valuation, which is all that matters.
(Incidentally, the other flaw in what you've positing is that in retrospective earnings the $1 buys frequently outperform the $2-3 buys. The variability at the bottom of the player pool is vast; the "control" that we are exhibiting at the auction to get "better" players is an illusion. The $1 player you think is worth $2 frequently outearns the $2 player you think is worth $5. The control in this segment of the auction - even when it does work - is more often than not the illusion of control.
I overpaid for $2 for Schoop. Saving money for endgame bargains can result in more over pays earlier and runs the risk of canceling out your $2 bargains
Sorry, 6 pitchers/$7, not 6/$6. My point stands though. In this auction, leaving extra cash for those slots would have cost me value.
The 6 $1-2 pitchers I purchased were worth $23 by my bid limits and cost $6. The 6 best $1-2 pitchers purchased by others cost $9 and were worth $13. Leaving extra money for bargains works better in reauction leagues. In keeper leagues it is sometimes a bad plan; and indeed would have in fact been a bad plan last Saturday.
The young talent is mostly kept in leagues like this. I can't think of a young player I missed out on simply because they're almost always locked up in farm systems.
That would be true if I went to $1 per player early, but by the time I registered Schoop nearly every team was in dollar Derbyshire. The only pitcher I missed out on due to a lack of money is Webb.
And your theory would be correct if 12 robot auctioners used Mike Gianella bid prices. Then having nothing but $1 to spend at the end would be bad, bad, bad. But since 12 owners have 12 different opinions on player values, my $1 pitchers aren't $1 pitchers. They're $2-5 pitchers by my lights. Am I right? I don't know but that's the fun of playing out the season.
I think your point regarding buying players on the "wrong" side of the age curve when you are having a "value" auction is valid (and I think you could have included Jose Bautista in there as well). However, when the complaint stretches too far and includes everyone regardless of age group, skill set, talent level, etc, then it veers more into an area of "I don't like your players and I think they cost too much money."
This is a valid opinion, but that is all it is. It is also a question of where I see upside versus where you see upside and it's difficult to debate that and "prove" who is right and who is wrong.
It's also worth noting that non-keeper leagues and keeper leagues are different animals. With five freezes and limited values, I was kind of boxed into optimizing categories. I intended to veer away from saves; not buying (enough) stolen bases was an accident, which I'll probably be able to remedy via trade quickly. I get that the $1 pitchers I bought are more likely to fail than succeed, but that's why I spent $1. I disagree with your theory on the lower level of pitching bringing back value; I've studied these data for years and typically the best ROI on pitchers in only leagues is on the extreme ends of the data curve. The pitchers in the middle are dangerous, and commonly lose about $4-5 per pitcher on average.
This was the last one that was planned.
I didn't list him. I have moved him up a little bit in my rankings since this piece, so one-star would likely be appropriate. I still have a hard time ranking a 4th outfielder in a piece like this, even though he's behind two injury history guys in Kemp/Crawford. It's not like Ethier's a monstrous producer when he IS in the line-up, so I feel that he's a marginal guy in his current situation. Now if he's traded or if there IS an injury, I could see him being a two-star guy as a full timer.
Jay! Long time no talk.
That article cracked me up then, cracks me up now. I think Gagne and Helton earned a combined $90 that year. Good job, good effort, RotoHelp.
Re: Larry, keep in mind that LABR was 4x4 that year and closer values are way different in that format. Paying $27 for a closer was pretty ho hum stuff.
Neither have I.
Depends on who is available, but I'd throw him back.
Should be in the AL at $13. Fixed.
True, although in mixed the other part of the idea is that the best stars are better than anything you're going to get on the free agent pool, unless it's the generational year that Mike Trout breaks out (2012)
I'm not sure what the plan is, but I know that Bret Sayre wants to encourage reader participation in this project as well.
I thought about it but everything I'm reading makes this sound extremely precautionary and that he'll only miss a start.
That's a typo.
The big surprise to me wasn't the high prices early on, but how much the middle infielders went for a little later. As I mentioned above, getting Wright, Upton, and Hamilton relatively early didn't put pressure on me to spend, but with so many middle infielders cracking $18 or more I knew I'd have to push someone like Rendon higher if I wanted to spend. He was the only player on my entire roster where I spent more than my bid price. Cozart and Sanchez were right at my bid prices. But I made the decision a few players before Rendon came up that I was going to get him unless he went to $20.
Todd Zola of Mastersball made things a little more difficult as well. Zola had more money than I did and a lot of offensive slots to fill. I didn't want to get stuck holding someone because I was trying to suck money from him but didn't want to just let him get players at below par and keep me from getting anyone. So I pushed Will Venable and Angel Pagan to my par prices in order to get Zola out of my way. It also helped in that it allowed me to get relative bargains on Bourjos and Morse and even get a $1 bargain (by my numbers) on Maybin with my last $7 bid.
He was the hardest National League pitcher to hit post All Star (tied with Francisco Liriano). Darren Balsley's work with Ross on the slider has made him an extremely tough guy to hit. There are limits to this (which is why I don't have Ross higher), but between his new approach and home venue, he's worth a low double-digit bid for me.
Of course it does. The risk is that you get nothing, but the other problem is that we have four reserve (non-DL slots). If Bradley and Maikel Franco do nothing for me, I have to either hang on to them all year or simply cut bait.
My final bid update - which will occur after the season starts for owners auctioning during the first weekend of the season - will remove rookies for old school leagues that have farm systems. You'll see the difference for veterans in that update (yes, it does inflate them).
It's hard to say with McGehee since the Marlins won't contend. Derek Dietrich is a possible risk to steal time, but he isn't a top prospect. Neither is Zack Cox. I'd bet that McGehee probably keeps the job until the trade deadline until he is traded to a contender (if he thrives) or is cut (if he doesn't). Sanchez depends on if the Pirates can swing a trade where they don't take on too much salary. If he beats the odds and hits righties the way he did in 2011 maybe he'll keep the job, but I wouldn't bet on it.
It really all depends on not only what these guys will be worth but whether or not there is dumping and how much talent a contending owner can get from a rebuilding squad. Guys like Bradley go for $10-12 in my leagues not only for their talent but because an owner doesn't want to let Bradley slip for $3 and have him turn into two studs in a dump deal. So some risk is built into the price for this year with the hopes that the player is good and can still be a rebuilding chip for another team.
Miller, but as a Ross fan I'm closer on them than most.
In keeper, Miller gets even more of an edge and it is more clear cut.
I feel bad about the typo, but I think I used the term NL-only at least half a dozen times.
That should say "from Eaton as well as Viciedo" not from Eaton as well as de aza"
He earned $22 last year in 607 at bats, even in a platoon it's not hard to see him getting the 396 at bats he would need to get to earn $15 over the same pace. This, of course, assumes that the platoon holds. I have zero faith in Adam Eaton and suspect that if De Aza winds up staying in Chicago he gets 450-500 at bats and takes some time away from Eaton as well as De Aza. Eaton is theoretically a decent fantasy proposition if he runs, but was below replacement level by Baseball Prospectus's measures and a replacement level player last year by Baseball Reference's measures. Everyone is excited about Eaton but there are no guarantees that he sticks.
Probably that order, but honestly it's all random. Too soon to know who is "best".
You have to drag, copy, and paste.
From a bid standpoint, that's about right. I'd go a little higher for the elite holds guys ($4-5) with $2-3 for the next tier. So $3 sounds realistic for Martinez, though I might go $4 because of the talent that's there.
The Aggressive/Conservative slider has the same problem that the PFM does. Even with the SGP turned on, it adds more money to SB/saves guys at the top than it does to the power hitters/ace starting pitchers.
My argument is that it's the owners' responsibility. No matter how many mechanical adjustments you make, no projection system is ever going to be able to account for all of this correctly.
I recommend adjusting for these in-auction fluctuations on your own.
The problem with relying on an in-auction tool is that in an auction with 20% inflation if the first 40 players cost $80 over the tool's price, then you are tricking yourself into thinking there will be deflation in your auction. But that's not really how it works, because teams still have the same amount of money to spend and will keep "overspending". Every team in the league will keep spending at the 20% inflation rate, but you'll wait and wait until it's too late and leave a lot of money behind. I've seen it happen and it isn't pretty.
Not that I am aware of, no.
To adjust for auction realities, you would need a setting that applies "x" bid limit to "y" level of valuation, which i haven't seen in any projection system for fantasy. You would ultimately have to project the injuries we can't see coming in February to get Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera to the $40+ they actually earn in the retrospective PFM and you would have to have an awareness of which hitters/pitchers would tank and be worth $1 or negative bids. The paradox is that while you could offer projections like this, the projections themselves would be silly even if in fact they made the PFM's valuation model. more "correct".
The "market price" is already adjusting for this. Sinking 1/5th of your pitching budget into a non-elite closer in a 5x5 is quite a lot of money when you think about it. Spending more than that is where you run the risk of spending "too much" on a category.
Thanks. Should be fixed now.
It's right in the form and wrong in the article. I will get that fixed.
I'm going to have to address this in a separate article. I've been getting a lot of questions like this, and I don't think an answer in a comments section can do this topic justice.
Keeper inflation has an impact when judging a hitter somewhat more expensive than his raw bid price versus a $10 hitter who is slightly undervalued. But in the example you provide, it probably wouldn't make much of a difference.
With 25% inflation
The more expensive the player, the more "valuable" he is due to inflation. This is because the player's salary is "protecting" you from inflation in the auction. If you throw Cano back, that $33 in your auction will bring back $26.4 in value, whereas if you throw Seager back, that $2 would bring back $1.6 in value. Given Seager's overall worth, this is moot. This would only come into play if you had a player with a $2 salary worth $5. In this example, even though Cano is below par pre-inflation and the hypothetical $2/$5 player is undervalued pre-inflation, Cano would be a better freeze due to the inflation rate.
Definitely worth keeping with inflation at that price in a mixed.
Miggy gets a slight downtick next year for me because of position but I'm talking about maybe $1 or $2. He's an elite, top shelf talent and should be for another year or two.
Nearly all of the adjustments are due to reality checks from having prices that were out of whack with CBS/LABR, with a few exceptions (Cole Hamels news)
Chris Davis +2
Prince Fielder +3
Adam Eaton +3
Yan Gomes +3
Avisail Garcia +2
Raj Davis +4
Kendrys Morales +2
Josh Willingham -2
Daniel Nava -4
Yunel Escobar -2
Lonnie Chisenhall -2
David DeJesus -4
L.J. Hoes -2
Craig Gentry -2
Andy Dirks -3
Alex Presley -3
Ryan Hanigan -2
Jeff Keppinger -2
Marc Krauss -6
Aaron Hicks -2
Michael Choice -3
Nolan Reimold -2
Justin Verlander +3
Felix Hernandez +2
Matt Moore +2
Danny Salazar +2
A.J. Griffin +2
Dan Straily +2
Drew Smyly +2
Chad Qualls +3
Michael PIneda +4
Josh Fields +2
Michael Stroman -3
Scott Feldman -2
Edward Mujica -2
Marcel Ozuna +3
Andre Ethier +3
Cameron Maybin -5
Cody Asche +3
Alexander Guerrero -2
Juan Uribe -3
Seth Smith +3
Cody Ross -2
Dee Gordon +4
Didi Gregorius -2
Josh Satin -2
Luis Valbuena -2
Brandon Barnes -2
Steven Strasburg +2
Cole Hamels -4
Michael Wacha +3
Matt Garza +2
Jhoulys Chacin -3
Jorge de la Rosa -5
Brandon McCarthy -2
The ups and down on the mixed bids have more to do with reflecting the hierarchy of the bids than with any specific commentary on these players.
Prince Fielder +4
David Wright -2
Yan Gomes +3
Adam Eaton +2
Daniel Nava -3 (removed)
Josh Willingham -2 (removed)
Justin Verlander +3
Stephen Strasburg +4
Adam Wainwright -3
Jose Fernandez -3
Felix Hernandez +3
Madison Bumgarner -2
Zack Greinke +2
Gio Gonzalez -3
Matt Moore +2
Hisashi Iwakuma -2
Edward Mujica -2 (removed)
Cole Hamels -6
Danny Salazar +5
Michael Wacha +5
Jarrod Parker -3
I have to adjust my bids for Tout Wars for OBP but haven't done so yet. It won't be part of the update, but I can post something in the 3/21 "article" section of the piece. I can't see updating every single player's bid. Moving a bid because of a $1-2 OBP valuation difference (which is where most of the differences sit) is not intuitive.
If you are interested in seeing the valuation differences between BA and OBP for 2013 values, I have provided tabs in the linked spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhtUhMJ1b4IOdHVNLUM5NW5xWUdIUV9jejhON3ZaZFE&usp=drive_web#gid=6
I haven't put together any bids for OBP leagues yet but you can take a look at my 2013 values using OBP in the spreadsheet below.
I haven't put my together OBP bids for Tout Wars yet, but will certainly provide them when I do. To be honest, this is probably going to impact all of 20-30 players at most; I'm not adjusting players $1 in one direction or the other for OBP, which isn't quite as variable as BA but still variable.
To the listener who asked about inflation, I wrote a LOT about this at my old, pre-Baseball Prospectus blog. There are also all sorts of links in the article if you really, really, really want to dive in.
I believe there were three new owners in the LABR NL only pool.
I talked about this today in my valuation piece, but I have a few theories.
1) Some experts look at draft trends and try to apply them to auctions. The theory this year is that there aren't any big offense players after Miggy and Trout and there is a lot of variability. I think this may have impacted thinking on spending big on top players.
2) Some experts use a "tiered" approach to auctions. "I can only spend $30 or more on my best player." So Expert A gets Bryce Harper for $32 and then sits back and lets Goldschmidt go for $33 because he filled his slot. This led to cheap spending early, but...
3) the result is expensive players later who "fit" the tier but are too expensive based on their actual value.
4) Four teams dumped saves, and Doug Dennis was planning on either spending $9 or less on a closer or not getting one (he got Street for $10). This also created a point in the auction where there was too much money floating around and instead of pushing it to pitchers it went to the second and third tier pitchers.
Mixed or only? I'd probably keep him either way if the inflation is 40% or above, but in a mixed league this is a better play given the variability at the bottom of the pool.
I have been getting enough questions about this topic that I'm just going to post a separate piece on Monday instead of answering it 10-15 times in the comments section every time I update this.
I like that you called him BumGarner.
I did this exercise for the hitters in the linked spreadsheet but it's easy enough to do for the pitchers as well.
1) Take the hitter values in a 12-team (column a)
2) Calculate the value of all hitters in groups of 12 for 14 groups (12 teams/14 players). Column E.
3) Adjust the total value for a 13-team league to match the same percentage. So 2132/3120 = 68.3%. Multiply by 3380 to get $2310 for the hitters.
4) Multiply each number in Column E by 2310 divided by 2132. This is your adjusted value for each hitter tier (column P)
5) Figure out how each group of 13 hitters is valued using my current bids (column Q)
6) Add money to each new tier of 13 hitters until Column Q equals Column P (Column R)
I added money to the top hitters in each tier, but you can redistribute as you see fit. Since the league is deeper, the opposite principle of adding money to shallow league hitters at the top applies. You don't want less money to the top hitters than at the middle and bottom because you don't want to get caught in a Stars and Scrubs trap when the scrubs are so bad.
This is the methodology I have used in the past. http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2009/04/non-linear-inflation.html
It is kind of crude, but it works and the manual intervention allows you to make decisions as opposed to trying to just fit a formula.
I would recommend using the link I posted above and shifting values across player tiers the way I did for only leagues:
I can ask. It's less likely I'd actually use decimals and more likely I'd put some nuance into the sorts (i.e.: I like Utley at $19 better than Venable at $19).
We're planning on having Steve Gardner on as a guest on the Flags Fly Forever podcast on Monday. I'll ask him then.
If LABR and Tout both switch to OBP, I'm switching as well.
You can grab the table from the top of the page and copy into Excel quite easily.
It's close to but not quite 70/30. I might tweak slightly downward if LABR follows the CBS trend and goes 68/32 but generally speaking I like to be in this ballpark. 65/35 isn't representative anymore of how leagues spend.
They should. If they don't, it's my mistake. I did do some last minute tweaking, so I will probably go in and triple check later tonight after I've had a few hours to decompress.
For points leagues, I find PECOTA/the PFM far more useful, since you're simply taking the projected stats and assigning points for each category. You could try to take my bid limit and apply it to the PFM $$$ value and cross multiply, but I agree that this is an apples to oranges comparison and is risky to do (I've never tried it myself).
I'd try to add only a little to top players and then gradually start deducting as you go down the pay scale.
Once again, I'd start with this article as a jumping off point
Then - since it is a shallower league - I'd add a little bit of money to the top players while shaving a little bit off of the bottom.
I use 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 1 CO, 1 MI, 5 OF, and 1 UT. Is that what you're asking?
I don't think you want to push the values that high at the top, just because you're losing so much money in the league on the whole. I have a crude curve where I add $3-4 to the top 5-10 players, $1-2 to the next 5-10 and then that's it. As you point out, you begin skewing values too much if you strictly follow PECOTA and you won't get enough players. Enough people in smaller leagues simply lean on published values, so pushing your prices on the elites up $3-4 is often enough to make a difference.
I would advise using the Tout Wars mixed auction prices from the last few years as a template.
This is a 15-team mixed league auction, so you will still have to do some tweaking, but it's a good framework to begin with. The values at the top should still be higher but because your 16-team league is deeper they shouldn't be quite so high. Same thing in the middle and at the bottom. Your $1 players are still going to be better than in a mono league, but not as good as in a 12-team mixed league. So you should flatten this out a little bit.
For shifts like this, this is what I have done in the past.
I take hitters and pitchers and group them into 14 tiers of hitters, 9 tiers of pitchers, and adjust the prices using this method. The top hitters/pitchers stay at about the same value, the next group gets dinged slightly, while the guys in the middle get robbed. You also lose a lot of value at the bottom, as $3-4 players become $1 players and $1 players disappear entirely.
You should buy a microphone to drop when you call his name out at your auction.
In a perfect world, you want to get players $2 or more below your bid price. In a competitive auction, you run the risk of leaving money on the table if you simply sit back and wait for bargains. I would advise getting one or two players at par or $1 under in this type of auction before bargain hunting.
Yes, they all should be there and have been added. Wilmer Flores was added to the NL-only file as well.
He's in the one-tier. My raw bid on him is around $10. He could definitely earn $15-17 in that park, but the concern is that Drew Stubbs and Brandon Barnes will chip away at Dickerson's PT.
He wasn't taken. In the CBS NL-only expert auction I participated in yesterday, he was a reserve pick.
In a 12-team NL-only expert auction yesterday, I bought Holliday for $24.
I can find the order and put it in a Google doc at some point.
More the fact that it was thin, though I thought about the potential that D'Arnaud might fail.
Leaving money on the table is inexcusable so, yes, even though the Moore thing screwed me up, neither that nor the DH set-up is an excuse for leaving money on the table. That one's on me.
I don't agree with you on the offensive proposition at all, though. I have six players who could hit 20+ HR, and this isn't wishcasting on my part. Three of my players did it in 2013, and three (Hart, Willingham, Reddick) hit 30+ in 2012.
I hear the term upside bandied about often. This topic might be better suited for a future article, but while upside is nice, you also want stats. This is particularly true in an only league where if your "upside" guy goes belly up the replacements in the free agent pool are often going to provide little to no help.
These are the PECOTA/PFM $$$. My values should be available on Monday, February 24.
Mister Johnny is right. The replacement level player in a mixed usually brings back some kind of value, and there are more players like this for the taking. So rather than flatten everyone out, it makes sense to push money to the elite players - who are "irreplaceable" by replacement level value standards.
These are one-year rankings. There should be a piece later this week with 3-year-rankings.
For one thing, the tier rankings are an imperfect way to rank players Maybin is right at the top of the first tier for me and I could easily see an argument for him being ranked higher. If he plays every day, he has 3-star upside without a doubt. I'm not as high on Eaton as most, but he arguably has 3-star upside as well.
However, I'm not sold on either player as a full timer. Maybin probably deserves a full time shot, but I suspect that he'll lose at least some playing time to left-handed Seth Smith. Eaton faces a crowded situation in Chicago as well.
There are some members of the BP team (Bret Sayre is front and center on this) who are big Eaton believers, but with all due respect I just don't see it. Reno has inflated plenty of batting averages in the past, and Eaton did nothing else at AAA in 2012 except steal bases. And while his 2013 might not be enough of a sample size to gauge, I'm pretty unimpressed with what Eaton's 2013 would have looked like over 550 plate appearances. Will Eaton hit 15 home runs and steal 30 bases? I doubt it. But even if that's a possibility, I'm not overpaying for a player in a crowded real life situation who played replacement level baseball in 2013.
Upton is certainly risky. But he has a lot of upside, and the Braves are heavily invested in seeing if he works out. I don't want to build my team around him, but a 20/40 season isn't an impossibility. This is the difference. I don't know if Eaton is going to get 550 plate appearances or not. Upton probably will unless he completely falls off of the map again (which I don't believe he will). If you disagree, take Eaton.
I'm skeptical of Melky post-PEDs. His big season was driven by a batting average that I don't think is sustainable.
Fowler contributes across the board, should play every day, and I see a little more power coming as he gets older.
Nava is part of how I value batting average. I value it more than other analysts do.
Nothing more than I have seen on the wire. We'll know more in a week or two.
I've been running back to back mock auctions (Wednesday and Thursday night) for next week's content and edited the Burnett add at the 11th hour. The copy could have read better.
Sure. But the rankings here take the opinion of the fantasy team into account. PECOTA is certainly part of our consideration, but it isn't the entire reason for the ranking.
OF only entering 2014.
He almost always misses time and has only had one premium season.
I'm not as high on Middlebrooks as others are, and worry if the Red Sox do re-sign Stephen Drew that Middlebrooks loses some time.
I didn't write something for every single player in the interests of space. Wright is a rock solid option who is great when he's on the field.
The replacement level player in mixed is better, so guys that are closer to that replacement level get dinged while guys like MIggy (who are irreplaceable, get $$$ added). It works on a curve.
He would be right on the cusp of four and five stars. I'd probably rank him at 4, but I know my colleague Paul Sporer would (probably) put him in the 5-star group.
Castellanos is OF only off of last year's MLB and minor league games played.
I think it's possible to recognize that there are different scenarios that allow for non-uniform responses.
At catcher, players move off of the position frequently. We have information that is pretty actionable about players moving off.
At shortstop, there are scenarios where players could move off but we're just guessing.
I feel like this is apples and oranges, but I can see where you could see it as an inconsistent approach. But we all give a lot of thoughts to these lists and making an earnest attempt to take all of these factors into consideration.
The rule initially was created to give owners some favorable scenarios the following year (yay! Joe Mauer is catcher eligible for one more year!)
I agree that the idea that Bogaerts is 3B eligible only because of a smattering of games in the Majors when he played at SS in 2013 in the minors as well is somewhat silly.
I suggest using a combined MLB/MiLB games rule if your stat service can manage it.
However, I do like the prior year rule for the reasons I stated above re: Mauer.
There are apparently leagues that do use go-forward eligibility only, but there are rare.
Sure, no doubt. That's why they play the games.
I touched upon this in the article. His numbers with men on base were far poorer than with the bases empty for no particular reason. Losing Choo hurts, but the odds of Votto doing as badly with men on base again are poor.
I also weigh batting average more heavily than most analysts. Votto has hit .305 or higher each of the last five years, and that .305 number is low. Outside of Joe Mauer, there isn't a player in MLB who is more of a certainly to hit .300 this year.
He could earn $25-30 in AL-only or he could crash and burn. I agree; huge range of expectations. If he does start shooting up in NFBC, I'll avoid him in a non-carryover.
He could be. The one star tier is littered with guys who could exceed expectations or could crash and burn. I'd like Davis a lot more as a value pick if the Mets weren't planning on platooning him with Josh Satin and if Lucas Duda - who has some value in his own right - wasn't lurking in the background.
The PECOTA/PFM projections won't be available until February. Until then, we are using last year's stats.
To go into the way way back machine, the prospect I was really high on who utterly failed was Ray McDavid. Look him up.
I'm a deep league guy and am definitely hoping to hit on much more deep league stuff on the Flags Fly Forever podcast that Bret, Mauricio and I record.
I can't speak for Bret or Mauricio, but for me it's not that it's confusing but I suspect I wouldn't enjoy it as much. Don't knock it until you tried it and all that, of course...
Also, your format doesn't sound as convoluted as some of the formats I had in mind.
It's an idea worth considering. Something to keep in mind is while it isn't a write-up, my projected bid values are geared toward only leagues players and pretty much rank everyone by bid limit. True, it isn't the same as a paragraph on the guys only leagues like, but it will give you an idea if I like Ryan Hanigan more than Geovany Soto (for example).
Yes, the numbers here are last year's numbers. This is due in part to the 2014 version of the PFM (and PECOTA) not being available yet. They should be available in February. It is doubtful I would make any changes based on PECOTA.
In an OBP league, Chris Iannetta moves into the one-star category. But in a BA league he doesn't quite offer enough power to push too hard for him in shallower leagues. And there's also the risk that Hank Conger steals enough at bats to make both of them riskier in 12-team mixed formats. My gray area cut-off for bid limits for one-tier catchers is $5. I have Iannetta at this price and Conger a little lower. A case could be made for swapping out Derek Norris for Iannetta (or a few other catchers), but that's exactly the point: in 12-team-mixed, Iannetta is on the bubble.
All of the Tout Wars expert leagues are moving from BA to OBP this season. I will definitely be writing about my experiences with this during the year.
I do agree with you that in a perfect world we would move somewhat off of the traditional categories and toward more "realistic" categories. Wins and saves in particular are maddening. However, there is always a balance between trying to cater to the stat-oriented fan and the traditional fantasy player. This is something I will keep in mind as the season goes along, and attempt to address this point moving forward on a regular basis.
You're obviously giving up more of a sure thing here, but even in a fantasy format I think that's a pretty good deal for you to get Baez. If his contract stays at $5 I give you the advantage.
I don't disagree. That's a serious issue that should be addressed, which is why I did not include it. Nor would I make light of it in any way, shape, or form.
Thanks for weighing in.
I would agree. Most everything else in the book pertains to all leagues - whether they are keeper leagues or one-and-done.
There was a lot of good stuff in the mixed league chapter, and I enjoyed the mixed league pricing/mono pricing translation a great deal. However, I didn't consider it as groundbreaking as the position scarcity information, as I've seen models with some similarities to Schechter's model elsewhere.
It's there. There is both a holds option and a holds plus saves option (my first response was in error).
I have forwarded your question to a member of our technical team.
We will definitely touch upon H2H topics this year in a broader sense, but it is somewhat difficult to tackle the topic specifically because there are so many different category variations from H2H format to H2H format.
You would have a $158/$102 hitting pitching split as theoretically outlined above. You would probably want to make the RBI/Runs/HR formula even broader (see my answer to Chicago Oriole above) while still reducing some money from the HR/SB denominators.
For pitching, I would treat the SPCOMB* like wins and the RPCOMB like saves in terms of the relative value of the stats.
This is a complicated question that I could spend 5,000 words on, but I'll try to do it in less.
Here are what my formulas for last year's 4x4 valuation for AL only look like
HR = $0.35 per HR Total Draft $728
RBI = $0.12 per RBI Total Draft $971
SB = $0.42 per SB Total Drat $485
And here is the 5x5 valuation
HR $0.25 per HR; $503
RBI $0.07 per RBI; $618
SB $0.29 per SB; $360
Runs $0.07 per run; $620
These formulas assume a $175/$85 split per team. Assuming (as I advised above) that you were simply going to keep this split, if you added a qualitative category you would do nothing except add a formula (similar to the BA formula) for the qualitative category.
However, if you were going to add a quantitative category, you would need to do what has already been done with the 4x4 to 5x5 formulas: shave more money from the quantitative categories to make the money add up. Here's one way to do it:
HR $0.18 per HR; $381
RBI $0.06 per RBI; $468
SB $0.24 per SB; $273
Runs $0.06 per run; $470
TB: $0.02 per TB $509
Every time you add a category you're flattening all of the existing categories out. You can argue about whether or not this is the "right" distribution (and without more data on leagues with total bases, I'm only guessing here) but this gives a good approximation.
Pitching would likely shake out something like this:
W $0.45 per win; $330
SV $0.23 per save; $126
K $0.04 per strikeout $414
Holds $0.27 per hold; $150
Again, I'd like to see some more data on the 6x6 total bases/holds front, but this gives you a broad idea of where the baselines would be
Mixed pitchers are on that spreadsheet now as well.
Got sidetracked last night by the transaction analysis pieces. Will try to post pitchers soon.
Peter Kreutzer (a.k.a. Rotoman) ran through this exercise years ago in one of Peter Goldenbock's "How to Win at Rotisserie Baseball" books for a number of players. I believe 1921 Babe Ruth was a $90-100 player or something absurd like that.
I have added the mixed league hitters here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhtUhMJ1b4IOdHVNLUM5NW5xWUdIUV9jejhON3ZaZFE&usp=drive_web#gid=4
I will be adding mixed league pitchers soon, hopefully by tonight.
It's difficult to go back and figure out who would have been purchased in a Roto auction in 1915, but using a similar model Ty Cobb would have been worth $57 in an AL only league in 1915. Steals were worth a lot less in 1915 because there were so many of them, but Cobb's 96 still would have given him a great deal of value. Where he really would have stood out, though, would have been in his batting average. His ..369 batting average was over 100 points over the league average and even accounting for adjustments for players not taken at auction, Cobb's batting average would have provided more value than in any other category.
In theory it would add a little value to closers, but it would push their value down on the whole) (along with everyone else who doesn't get holds) because the $$$ for holds has to come from somewhere, and that somewhere would be wins, strikeouts, and saves.
You can use PFM as a base, although make sure to set the SGP option to yes.
Yes, this is true. However, something I should have mentioned in the article (which is another piece of the research Schechter did) is that positional differences in value - even in mixed leagues - are overblown. There is definitively a difference for catcher in mixed leagues; however, this is true in two catcher leagues, not one catcher formats. With more and more leagues moving to one catcher formats, this difference has been muted as well. My model assumed a mix of one and two catcher mixed formats, which resulted in 16 catchers included among the top 168 players. If you are in a two catcher league, it is definitely important to make an adjustment for scarcity in your draft or auction!
You can analyze the shares of each offensive category, but that is not an SGP model, and that is what I'm working with. If you disagree with SGP theory (and if you do you are certainly not alone), then when you run the PFM leave this option as OFF. My issue with doing this is I have found that I wind up with a steals/saves heavy team that is deficient elsewhere but - as I always say - your experience in your leagues might differ from my experience in my leagues.
Thanks for reading. All three of your questions probably deserve their own article, but I'll do my best to answer below.
1) SGP is somewhat based on standard deviation methodology, yes. What it does (in theory) is take the average difference in the standings in each category and bases its values off of this. This is why steals and saves are somewhat devalued using this model. Because there is often a larger categorical gap in SB/SV, at some point they lose some of their value.
PFM did have an SGP option last year, but it was not the default; you had to choose PFM in the model in order to use it.
2) This is correct. Auction values are derived using an Auction Day baseline of $260 per team for 12 teams (for $3120 total). I do not do a separate calculation for the end of the season pool (the best 276 players) because the $3120 only has meaning in the context of the auction. Theoretically, you could add $1200 in "value" for FAAB (assuming a league uses $100 per team), but you are not really comparing apples to apples.
3) I've talked about this elsewhere and will fish for the link later. The split is based more on what teams/leagues spend as opposed to what players are actually "worth." You could make a plausible argument that since hitters contribute to 50% of the categories and pitchers contribute 50% that you "should" pay $130 for hitters and $130 for pitchers. But if you budget this way and everyone else is budgeting $170/$90, you will wind up spending $200 on your pitchers (or more) because all of your prices will not reflect the reality of the market. In theory, the "true" split should be whatever your league spends on hitting/pitching. So if your league does spend $95 per team per pitcher, adjust accordingly.
Pitchers have now been added to my master 2013 valuation document.
Also, 2013 NL hitting values have now been added to my spreadsheet.
If you push out the decimals, Votto was 14th.
Starling Marte $29.79
Matt Holliday $29.76
Daniel Murphy $29.67
Shin-Soo Choo $29.514
Joey Votto $29.508
Carpenter narrowly missed the top bargains; he came in 13th. He was chased to $13 in CBS and $14 in Tout Wars, which made him less of a bargain than he would have been otherwise.
Sorry for the lateness of the reply.
The answer to your question probably deserves its own article, but here are my short answers:
1) It's always a fools errand to try to predict future trends, but I suspect that the drop in steals is something that is here to stay. Most teams are looking at and implementing the same data we are and steals aren't viewed as a high percentage play. However, a few years ago this meant that teams ahead of the curve were barely running ever. Currently, you have a handful of players running on each team and some players who hardly ever run. The result is that while steals are harder to come by, there are still players that can rack up big totals. Which leads to your second question.
2) If you're certain that a team will employ a Jarrod Dyson or a Rajai Davis, there does seem to be a market inefficiency in identifying what these guys are worth. Once upon a time, there was a class of players that stole 5-15 bases on top of everything else they did but these players are (generally speaking) running less. This is part of what has eroded the stolen base (and increased its value), not the demise of the stolen base king, but the erosion of steals in the middle. If you can find a Dyson or a Davis and the market is stopping at $2-4, go the extra dollar or two. There is risk, but you can take care of a big chunk of your steals in an only league with one player.
In addition to the above, I'm providing a link to my valuations here (for the time being)
I'll add NL values/mixed values as I go along
In addition to the above, I'm providing a link to my valuations here (for the time being)
I'll add pitchers/NL values/mixed values as I go along
This could be said for some of the results on the losses chart. However, I'm not sure how this applies to the 10 best players or the 10 biggest bargains, unless your premise is that because they didn't get hurt they are bargains or the best. However, injuries don't entirely explain away poor performances and the lack of injuries don't automatically lead to great performances either. To be sure, there are a lot of injured players on the "bust" chart, but not every bust is an injured player (and this year has an exceptionally high number of injury cases on the chart; this is not the norm).
Also, I'd reject the characterization that the losses chart is a case of injuries not being predictable. Some of the players here were injured or an injury risk before owners placed their bids. Granderson and Jeter were known risks and owners bid on those known risks anyway. Pujols' injury turned out to be worse than feared, but his foot issues weren't a secret back in March. If there's any instruction to me on the injury front, it's that injured players or players with injury issues offer more risk than healthy players. This doesn't mean that a healthy player cannot get hurt in-season, but many of the examples here are of players who suffered injuries, saw their fantasy owners take risks, and saw those risks fail to pan out.
In a start-up, start over league that might be a little high. He could go for that, but I'm thinking $22 or $23 might do it. I show him earning $16.34 last year; the PFM shows him at $17.53 using my methodology (no inflation, 175/85 hitting/pitching split, SGP turned on). If you split the difference between what I show him earning in 2012 ($33) and what he earned last year, that's a $24-25 player, but as I said above I see Hamilton as a moderate bounce back candidate, not a big one.
There is no such thing as a simple argument with Craig, Ben. Run away. Run far, far away.
McLain was definitely the ace that year, no arguments. But Lolich put up an ace-like performance in the World Series and undoubtably outpitched McClain in the '68 Fall Classic.
Your guess is correct (and mine was wrong); the Sox confirmed that Ross will catch Lester tonight. My guess revolved around the idea that Ross hadn't started in back-to-back games since early September and given his health issues this year didn't seem like a candidate to do this.
I will never forget getting hit square in the nuts with a tennis ball off of a wooden bat when I was 10 years old. My eyes rolled up into my head, I collapsed to the ground, and I saw white for a good 10-15 seconds. Can't even imagine how much getting hit with an actual baseball would hurt.
More likely than Cabrera "skating" was the idea that he - and most of those named in the Biogenesis matter - would appeal.
It's easy to look back with the benefit of hindsight and question the decision to trade for any of those players, but it seemed likely that either a) baseball wouldn't decide to pursue suspensions with simply just cause evidence or b) players would appeal on the ground that just cause evidence wasn't as tangible as a drug test, and players had historical precedent on their side.
To address your statement, I agree that I take some of the blame. The Biogenesis investigation is unprecedented, and claiming a stake in an unprecedented matter is a risky gamble.
I projected Puig in CF based on earlier lineups. I saw Mattingly's comments about wanting to avoid Puig in CF this morning after I submitted this to editing. I now agree that this sounds unlikely.
True. For me it's a matter of $$$ allocation. I don't like spending 6% of my budget on someone who will be completely worthless if he doesn't do the one thing I'm paying him to do. If I can funnel the money into excess elsewhere, I'll either dump the category or trade for it later.
Like Russell, I had Gomez 3rd, but looking at the choices ahead of him, it's hard to really get too worked up about this for me.
I mentioned Gennett above in response to Mr. Tarr. I think he has a legitimate shot at a job; I think the club might try to trade Weeks or move him to the OF.
Ruf has earned PT. The question is whether or not the team has the guts to platoon him with Howard and possibly play Ruf in the OF as well or if he's OF only. My guess is the team will not sit their $125MM man even if they should. But Ruf has earned a shot at regular PT. He is better than many of us thought.
Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis might possibly have some value depending on what happens with the rest of the Brewers roster next year. Ryan Braun will be back, which makes the outfield that much more crowded and difficult to project. I think the team will make an effort to try and find a spot for Gennett, but Davis perhaps not. Schafer looks more like a borderlin MLB play than the other two.
I should have been clearer. From a fantasy standpoint, it isn't inspiring. You're correct that he could be a useful asset in a big league line-up; however, as a fantasy commodity, I suspect you're looking at a .270 BA, 10-12 HR, 50 RBI, 8-10 SB...and I think that's a best case. We also have over 400 MLB plate appearances to look at, and the MiLB results haven't translated. Yes, that's not completely fair and, yes, Giavotella probably deserves more of a chance than he has received, but I don't see a big time power or speed burst coming here. Caveat: I could be wrong.
This morning I made another trade that I had hoped to get in under the wire for last night's piece, flipping Mat Latos to Wilderman for Craig Kimbrel. The Braves large lead makes me a little wary of Kimbrel in the last 2-3 weeks of the season, but hopefully having one of his handcuffs in Walden will mitigate this.
That's a good point, bobby, although the account I cited for my research says that although Carbo did miss the plate on the initial slide he touched it shortly thereafter (before he went back to the dugout but well after he walked back with Anderson). I'd sure like to see that video clip. I wasn't born when this happened!
Right. My opinion of whether or not I think saves or good or bad for fantasy baseball or whether or not you should use them or not is irrelevant. If you're playing fantasy baseball, chances are excellent that you use saves. I am trying to help you win your fantasy leagues first and foremost. While I do try to figure out which relievers are better than others using a more metrics-oriented approach, I am trying to help my readers win their fantasy leagues first and foremost.
As a baseball fan, I don't like saves either. Furthermore, I loathe the idea that there is a "closer's mentality" and that 3 outs in the ninth inning of a 6-3 game with the bases empty are somehow more difficult than three outs in the seventh inning of a 4-4 game with the bases loaded. So, yes, I agree that saves are a silly statistic in terms of the value of a relief pitcher.
All that being said, we are catering to fantasy baseball players with articles like these. I do try to use statistics like K%, BB%, HR% and other markers to determine which pitchers are better closers than others and which closers will stay closers, but I am still writing with a fantasy audience in mind. If there is ever a move away from using saves in fantasy baseball, I will limit or eliminate this topic in the future.
Gyorko's ownership is now up to 35%, but I still see a buying opportunity; i was able to grab him in my FSWA "expert" league with a $0 FAAB bid.
Had I submitted this at 3 a.m., I would have expressed little concern over Farquhar's blown save and some concern over Hawkins's.
One of the drawbacks of columns like this is that I'm on a deadline, and can't always react to late night events. Josh Fields picked up the save last night for the Astros - something I obviously would have mentioned. It seems like Lo is still the closer. Lo had pitched two nights in a row and manager Bo Porter said that Lo was receiving a scheduled night off. However, this is why Lo - and most new closers - start in the bottom tier. I'll stick with Lo, but monitor this situation, and don't go crazy with a FAAB bid/waiver claim on Lo if he's available.
I think you have a good point. However, one of the reasons I don't write about players like that in this space is that Bret does a terrific job covering guys like this in The Stash List.
It seems fairly obvious to me that this wasn't my intent. I think it would seem obvious to any fair minded reader that this wasn't my intent either. And I didn't say "I hope Jim Johnson has more interesting things to do than read Baseball Prospectus"; those were your words, not mine. I can't even say you're reading something into something I said, because you literally took what I said, turned it into something different, and accused me of doing something I didn't do.
This seems like an obvious statement that doesn't seem to need to be made, but anyone and everyone is welcome and encouraged to read Baseball Prospectus. Hopefully, this puts this manufactured issue to rest.
I think baseball players - like any other people - should do whatever they want as long as it doesn't harm others or themselves.
I'm not sold on him a an elite option. He has been great at times, but he also has stretches where he looks ordinary.
I don't differentiate the pitchers within each tier.
I hope Jim Johnson has better things to do with his life.
I can't speak to Bret's process, but I write about a player from one of my 12-team NL or AL only leagues that is in the free agent pool. In the case of Flores, some leagues don't have farm systems or don't allow for minor league pick ups in season.
I can see your point, but I'm not exactly writing about David Freese for NL-only either.
I saw that, but ESPN still has him listed for Monday at Arizona.
Draft picks in a straight draft or minor league picks in a Roto style league?
Probably, but I wouldn't expect what he was doing Pre All-Star
I'd assume that the power outburst in April was the anomaly and Fowler's body of work across his career is what you should expect.
Carlos Quentin has been terrific since he has been traded to San Diego...when he's healthy enough to be on the field. If you have the reserve/DL space, you have to hang on to him when he isn't active.
I don't have access to Reddick's medicals, but wrist injuries have a way of sapping power and it wouldn't surprise me if that is the issue with Reddick. I'd avoid him in mixed.
Weeks looks like he's going to do what he did last year. His K% will keep his batting average low, and will limit the power/speed you might get from him. He's fringy in mixed, and he's only that "good" because he's a middle infielder.
Reynolds I have given up on for mixed. Maybe he has another hot streak in him, but he seems like a bad play based on this. Carter I think it OK for OBP leagues, but even so is a fringe option.
Lough's value definitely takes a hit with the Maxwell acquisition. It looks like a straight platoon for now, although that could obviously change given performance.
Yes, Arcia is worth a grab. You're probably looking at 20-5-20-.260 ROS. ROS I'd take Arcia. Pillar has more upside, but there are no guarantees with him (I do agree with Bret's general premise on him though).
I am a patient man but I am done with R.A. Dickey.
I'll touch upon this next week in the column.
It could be Lindstrom or Jones. I like Jones.
I moved him down or thought I did after last night's game but I suspect that I sent the prior version to editing. This one's on me.
There isn't really a "best" way to account for inflation, which is what makes keeper leagues so interesting. Even in a start-over auction, each player purchase changes the dynamic of the auction. This phenomenon is even more dramatic in keeper formats.
Historical data can probably be used to gauge whether owners prefer going full bore on top tier players or if they redistribute inflation money to other players.
This is an interesting thing to examine for a future piece. Thanks for the suggestions.
My expectations for Freese aren't past what he has already done. I think the batting average could be OK, but I'm not anticipating a power boost.
I think Cargo is a good target if he's available. The injury seems minor.
With Alfonso Soriano all but headed to the Yankees as I right this, there's a good chance Lake gets regular AB the rest of the way. I don't think he's a great baseball player, but the power/speed combo makes him a pretty good add in deeper leagues.
Gallardo has a limited no trade clause (can block a trade to 10 teams).
The home run rate has increased in the last month. This was always a concern with Mujica. He also has a stud behind him in Trevor Rosenthal. While I've always been adamant that the Cardinals won't simply make a change for the sake of making a change, this does concern me somewhat.
Yes if you're are looking for the "safest" commodity. If you need to gamble, then Salazar might be a better bet.
Usage. Hunter has been pitching more in eighth inning situations with the Orioles in the lead of late, and even received a two inning save opportunity. O'Day certainly could slot into the role, but Hunter draws more of the raves from a scouting/stuff perspective. One scout called Hunter a "closer waiting to happen" - (Danny Knobler, CBS Sports)
Two blown saves in the last four weeks, one of which came on a fielding error by Gordon Beckham. Has given up earned runs in two outings over that time frame. 2 terrible outings on the year inflate his ERA greatly.
Of the three, I'd go with Villanueva. I think he has the best chance to put up some strong whiff rates with decent peripherals. Haren could be good but I think he's a risk for the reasons I noted above. I wouldn't touch Hernandez in your format.
No. He should be in the first tier. I'll get that fixed.
Ha ha...I only shared about a quarter of his antics.
In all the leagues I have ever played in, there have been a grand total of 2 vetoes, with one leading to the suggestion that the owners who were making the egregious trades either play as partners or leave. They left. I don't have a lot of experience with vetoes (they should be a last resort, as I said above), but I agree with your logic. If a trade is deemed collusive, overturning the trade isn't enough. The owners should be removed posthaste.
Set the disposition to moderate, turn the positional adjustment off, and turn the SGP Level ON. It's not exact, but it's very similar.
See my response to fantasytool12 above.
Here is an example. It is for prior seasons, but it gives you a pretty solid idea of how this is devised.
That's a good idea for a follow up. I'll tackle that in a future piece.
Russell is the guy who deserves it, but multiple beat writers in Chicago think that the brass doesn't see Russell as a closer. I like Carlos Villanueva, though maybe Shawn Camp gets another shot. This will be a mess if Gregg is traded.
In the last 2 weeks entering last night, 18th among the 30 closers based on performance metrics. His overall Roto earnings are 12th. His numbers are very good but there are arguments both for and against Holland (I assume this is who you're talking about) as an elite closer. Is 12th best Roto earner elite?
Would you prefer to hear about Ramon Santiago?
I agree, Chris Parmelee is a better option than Ishikawa. It's also extremely unlikely that Parmelee is available in an AL-only. My methodology is to look closely at the AL and NL only leagues I play in and see who is available. I could write about guys like Parmelee, but he's taken in every AL only I'm in, and also gone in CBS and Tout Wars.
Lower whiff rate of late, not that many opportunities.
My toughest call. Had I included last night's stats, he would have been first tier. An argument can be made either way for a number of these guys. I'm trying to avoid having half of the Majors in the 1st tier.
They're both great. I was trying to write more about good relievers who may have slipped under the radar in leagues that aren't onlies.
Of the four players you mention, I think Hanley has a shot to be/stay productive if he is healthy. The same applies to Dickey. If his back doesn't become a chronic issue, a repeat of 2011 isn't unrealistic.
In a start up auction, not so much. In a keeper auction, yes. If there is 20% inflation, for example, $20 worth of money spent in the auction will bring back $16.67 of value. Getting $32 of value back in an inflation auction "protects" you from losing out on your players.
If you go to the Player Forecast Manager, there is a year-to-date earnings option http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/ytd/
He might move up in the next update.
I haven't been ranking middle relievers, but that's a good idea. Even if I don't tank 30 middle relievers, having a list of useful adds for NL-only, deeper mixed, and standard mixed leagues with start limit rules might be useful. What say you, faithful and loyal readers?
Like Jason, I play in three industry leagues (mine are Tout Wars, FSWA, and CBS) and like Jason, the only one i play in that uses quality starts is FSWA. It isn't perfect, but it is much better than wins and I heartily second Jason's endorsement of the stat. Yes, I agree with saint09 and BloodStripes that the stat isn't perfect...but it is a significant improvement over wins.
Jason, do you want to forward this article to Peter or should I? :)
Of those guys, I think I'd probably go with Nolasco. His skills have been pretty solid reliable, and I like the fact that he pitches in a pretty weak hitting NL East divisiion. Stults is a close second, but I feel like there is a little regression coming. Gee is still a health question to me, and I don't trust Locke to sustain this start at all.
Maybe next week I'll go into more detail about why I move guys up/down and what my rationale is.
I can see it. More than anything else, I'm trying to keep the top tier tight. I think you can make an argument for Paps and a couple others (Romo, for example) to be in the top tier but if the top tier gets too top heavy it loses some meaning. At least to me.
It seems like that's the scenario. Noonan and Arias seem to be getting most of the AB at 2B and 3B for now.
Some of it is lack of use. I also look at FIP as opposed to ERA when putting these lists together. A better way of phrasing this would be to say he has been a mediocre option in a standard mixed format.
You are correct.
I think it's a terrific story, though something that would fit far better in a different part of BP than the fantasy section.
Doubtful for the $$$ reasons I outlined above.
Probably Capps unless/until the Padres make a trade or two.
If I'm playing for this year, Torres. If I'm looking at 2014 and beyond Ramos. Ramos has been a mess lately and I don't trust him even in only leagues at the moment.
In Roto, I'd rank them Rasmus, Quentin, Duda and Ozuna. I think Moreland is ahead of all of them with the possible exception of Rasmus.
In a mixed league, I'd roll with Zunino. He has the most upside. If you're looking for a safe choice, go with Salty.
I could see a team acquiring Lyon for the stretch run. However, I don't think he'll be at the top of any team's wish list.
I submitted this story to editing as the West Coast games were getting started. If I had been a night owl, Tom Wilhelmsen would have been busted down at least one notch if not all the way down to the bottom. He has zero command of his off speed offering and hitters are sitting on the fastball. Nothing has been announced yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if the club makes a move. I'd try Carter Capps and Yoervis Medina as speculative plays, in that order.
Thanks for reading and for commenting.
The tables aren't comparing April performance for all players. The tables list all players who had at least one Top 10 or Bottom 10 qualifying April in OPS or ERA and then list how these players did in at least one other qualifying April. Brendan Ryan is not being compared to Aramis Ramirez. Brendan Ryan is being compared to Brendan Ryan, Aramis Ramirez is being compared to Aramis Ramirez, etc.
If you compare Aramis Ramirez to Aramis Ramirez, since 2000, five of his Aprils have been above his seasonal OPS and eight of his April have been below his seasonal OPS. In one sense, Ramirez is a slow starter, in that his career OPS in April is below his career OPS for the entire season. However, if you refused to draft or buy Aramis or benched him in April because he is a slow starter, you lose that bet 38% of the time.
Most of the perception that Aramis is a terrible April/May hitter comes from his lousy 2010 start. That season, Aramis had a 498 OPS in April and a 494 in May. This start is an extreme outlier and not representative of Aramis's typical start. The problem with using career numbers (as you do above) and saying that "Aramis is a slow starter" is that you're willingly taking an extreme outlier from one campaign and including it in the overall data.
As for LaRoche, he has had five seasons where his April OPS was below his seasonal OPS...but four seasons where his April OPS was above his seasonal OPS. LaRoche's overall April OPS is lower but - again - he isn't consistently worse in April year in and year out (I didn't stop at five seasons to selectively make LaRoche look better in this analysis).
Players' performances fluctuate. Every April is a small sample size and two arbitrary endpoints. It hardly surprises me that I found that one bad April isn't predictive of another bad one...even though conventional wisdom says otherwise. Comparing Aramis to Aramis or LaRoche to LaRoche doesn't change the results...although I'm glad you brought this to my attention, as this is yet another intriguing way to look at the fallacy of slow and fast starters.
Great piece Paul.
I'd add to your first bullet that if you send out a mass e-mail to the league, the most likely outcome is that you are going to get lowballed. I read this e-mails as "I am desperate to make a trade because I am dissatisfied with my team and really, really need to make a deal." I used to send blast e-mails on a regular basis but found that they were either completely ignored (as you suggest) or that the offers that came in were very poor. I used to blame opponents for making poor offers, but now I see it your way.
It's possible, though I'm not really sure what his market is at the moment. He still seems like more of a middle relief flier for a contender more than anything else.
It depends on how the Pale Hose use Reed in the next couple of days. I'd hope the Sox give him at least two days off to recharge his batteries.
To your first point, a lot depends on the league's rules and structure. A league with a high number of freezes combined with no carryover farm system would indeed make it difficult for the teams at the bottom to improve the following season. On the other hand, a league that allowed teams to speculate heavily on cheap players - whether through free agency or via farm systems - could have the effect of creating a larger turnover from year to year at the top of the standings.
To your second point, I'm not suggesting that you should aim to finish sixth every year and never dump. I'm suggesting that you should attempt to find every avenue to contend before you throw in the towel. I agree that hanging on for too long is a problem, but I have seen more of the opposite: owners repeatedly giving up early due to a few slow starts or a handful of non-key injuries. Try, try, try. Never say never when it comes to dumping, but don't give up at the first sign of trouble either.
Yep. Mentioned that under the third header.
I stashed Phegley a week ago in the AL-only expert league I do. What do I have to lose except a reserve slot?
Noticed an error I made. Grant Balfour is listed in both the closer and non-closer charts. He's still closing last I checked.
Only the Top 30 non-closers are listed. Jansen ($4) is 56th overall so he just misses the cut.
He's very hittable. His SwStr% has dropped down below 10% for the first time in his career and while Street has never been a huge velocity guy everything in his assortment is slower.
Axford has a big contract. Henderson doesn't. Teams are more likely to try and insert a "money" closer back into the role than not. All that being said, it doesn't look like Ax is close to reclaiming the job and that this buzz has died of late.
Dollar values are based on my 2012 formulas and are not prorated assuming a full season.
I have been getting a lot of questions about my dollar values and how they are derived. As a result, I am planning to write an article discussing this in the near future.
I'm not sure either Bell or Gregg will hang onto the job, but unless you're talking about a mega-skills guy like Trevor Rosenthal or Kenley Jansen, grab the saves you can get now, not the ones you *might* get at some point and time in the future. Of those two, I'd probably go with Bell. I don't like either Bell or Gregg but my faith in Gregg is even more limited.
I'd probably go Grilli, Soriano, and Janssen. Grilli has shown enough regarding his preseason rankings that I'd move him up quite a bit.
That's a good idea regarding rankings ROS. It's something I'll definitely consider for next week's piece.
To reiterate what Jason/Paul said at the beginning of the show, listen to everything if you have time/if you can. Devour as much information from as many sources as you can. That's how you get better.
Awesome job as always gentlemen.
Paul Sullivan just reported via Twitter that Gregg is the closer even after Fujikawa comes back, as Gregg has "earned it."
Scared me; I thought I made (another) mistake in my article.
I think you're giving up too much in a dynasty, especially with Marte to make that deal.
This looks like something from an older version of the article that shouldn't have been included. I'm going to see if editing can fix.
I love that story. Remember seeing in on This Week in Baseball.
Sure, that's kind of the nature of the job/role. The "manager's confidence" is such an intangible, yet a lot of times that's what we're dealing with here when it comes to relievers who really aren't that far apart in terms of their skill sets.
Agree, though I think it has more to do with Mujica messing up than with anything Rosenthal does. Closing probably should be a meritocracy, but it seldom is.
There's nothing wrong with stashing Rosenthal in the hopes that he supplants Mujica, but if Mujica performs, there's no reason that the Cardinals will make a move simply for the sake of making a move.
Yelich was hurt and just returned to action. IMO this pushes his timetable back somewhat.
This is a good subject for a future article. Thanks for sharing.
It might ignore it, but the impact of that free agent is typically overstated. The average AL pitcher free agent earned $3.19. The average NL pitcher free agent earned even less, at $1.14. Even if you use the $3.19 figure, there's still a gap between Diamond/Greinke but the gap is wider if you're only using 40-50% of the season versus 100%.
You definitely don't just want to spend $100 in April, cross your fingers, and hope for the best. But you should be aware that there's a better chance your investment in April is going to work out better than your investment on a big-ticket item in late July/early August. I wouldn't advise on spending big on a two-start pitcher based on the data above; I don't see a strong corollary between starting pitchers and high FA earnings. Relievers, though, are a different story. For one thing, the data doesn't agree with your assessment that a significant number of these middle relievers are dropped, added, and then picked up again. It happened in one or two cases I could find. But those were the exceptions, not the rules. I think it's more likely in home leagues that owners don't appreciate the value of strong middle men like O'Day. In expert leagues, owners hold on to these guys for dear life once they identify them and don't let go. Middle relief value - even in 5x5 - goes a long way.
Cingrani went for $54 in NL Tout Wars. He's not going to go cheaply in NL only leagues if he's not already rostered.
Out of curiosity, how many leagues were auctions and how many were drafts?
Worthy of an article-length response, but:
1) I've won this league more times than anyone in it despite having only dumped three times in 18 years.
2) I have had success dumping in-season and trying at the auction. Two of the three times I dumped in-season, I won the following year.
3) I have not found that more value comes in a dump trade later rather than sooner. I've done some analysis at this and teams that dump in March or April fare no better or worse than teams that dump in June or July.
4,250 AB requirement.
I agree with you about most of your observations. As noted in the article, I would have rather went in a different direction on a few of these players.
If I shook out with Gardner, Crisp, and Bonifacio instead I would have saved some money, but only about $16-18. Could have moved that to pitching and bought another ace.
That's a good observation Ray. Some of the idea is to have a decent core of keepers for 2014 if this doesn't work out.
Actually, we were allowed the choice. You can use a $3 FAAB bid at the auction or wait until that night and go through the regular FAAB process. If you did the $3 bid, you "lost" the stats of the injured player. If you waited, you got the stats of the injured player. The benefit of buying a $3 player is you could buy stats (read: cheap win/cheap save). In the case of Aramis, I waited to get his 5-for-13.
I didn't try to do this, it just worked out that way. Given that I left $7 on the table, I would have prefered to buy a more expensive player and dollared out one slot.
It's N.L. only, so given how weak the last slots are, I prefer having a balanced roster...particularly since injuries happen anyway.
No reserve lists for active MLBers. But unlimited DL slots and free to add/drop players at will via FAAB. $0 FAAB minimum. So not crazy liberal but definitely not conservative.
Something I should have pointed out in the article is that you can't purchase minor leaguers at auction. All MLB or DL players only.
I think CBS has more deep league teams/owners.
Sorry if I'm late on this question. I'd pick up Davis if he's still out there and drop Middlebrooks.
It's an interesting idea. My concern would be that it could turn into one of those studies where the hypothesis "proves" the thesis insofar as some of these clauses are already handed out to relievers that might close on make good deals. I don't think this is the case with Gonzalez, but a broader study might have this issue.
Baseball Prospectus' own Cot's Baseball Contracts is essential for information like this.
And you're right, it might not mean much, but it's certainly interesting to know.
Gonzalez: The Brewers did give Gonzalez a games finished clause, so I'm sure that's what Gonzalez and his agent were thinking when he signed with Milwaukee. However, Gonzalez will probably have to string together a few decent outings in a row before he will be seriously considered for the role. His 2013 debut didn't help.
Thornburg: I could see the Brewers turning to Thornburg for relief help at some point, but right now they seem fairly committed to trying him as a starter. As a short-term pick-up for saves, I wouldn't recommend.
$7 is OK, though I might go a little lower. In a deeper mixed, In Tout Wars mixed (auction), Heisey is one of the best outfielders out there in a 15-team mixed. So it's OK to go past the minimum but keep in mind that good/talented outfielders will cycle through all year long. There's nothing wrong with pushing a little on Heisey, but I wouldn't go crazy.
$100 budget? I'd say $15-20 tops, though $10-15 is a safer range. I don't trust Axford at all, but Henderson isn't a Kenley Jansen/Kelvin Herrera/Trevor Rosenthal type where the skills give me an extreme amount of confidence.
I did a long recap about my experience at NL Tout Wars.
In only leagues, the guys that aren't listed and the guys that are $1 are fairly interchangeable.
In Tout Wars, Gattis was OF only (eligible only at the position he played most in the minors in 2012). This is not an uncommon rule (we play with it in one of my home leagues) so be aware.
Funny, I was looking at Layne when I was considering high K sleepers in my deep NL-only for fantasy and then stumbled upon this piece. This is terrific.
There is a spreadsheet on the Tout Wars site that has the results for all three expert auctions and the one expert draft.
LABR is out on Sports Weekly's site.
From the AL that is.
Players traded from the NL are available via FAAB, correct.
NL players that go to the AL can be kept. Players like Kyle Lohse that are free agents at the time of the auction cannot if they go to the "other" league.
I don't. I target almost entirely based on value and go from there. However, Jason, Paul, Paul, Josh, and Bret might answer this differently. Different analysts have different approaches, and there isn't a "right" or "wrong" way if you reach your ultimate goal.
Perhaps somewhat low, but I do not have much faith in a Howard bounce back in 2013. I believe he will not be that far above replacement level.
95-100 is probably on the high end of the spectrum I would agree.
I would use $1.
In an appearances vs. strikeouts league I think that Holland is a no go and Cobb is borderline. I'd drop Holland.
Bourjos is in the Two Star group.
That's an excellent question. My thinking is that Eaton will probably get the job back when he returns, so I'd leave Parra in the one-star category. He could certainly move forward if Eaton flops or if Parra is incredible, but based on what we know today, still one-star for me.
The replacement level player in NL-only is much worse than in mixed. In a mixed format, Cody Ross or someone similar is going to be available in the free agent pool, which is why Ross is valued at $1. Since there are so many players like Ross floating around, the value of Braun "increases" since while there a theoretically a dozen Cody Ross types out there at one time or another there is only one Ryan Braun.
Maybe Hamilton, but still probably none of the above.
He goes from playing 81 of his games in Arlington to 81 in Anaheim. There may be less of an impact than there would be for another hitter, but I think there will be an impact. Jason Collette, who bought him at $25 in Tout Wars, definitely is closer to your position on this than I am.
Probably none, which is why I have him ranked lower.
I think he could, yes.
I always have to double and triple check that myself...
No post, but I will updating the prices in the tables frequently.
I'll ask about the pitcher split, but at this late juncture not sure it's something that's possible.
I know they're "only" bids, but is there any chance my bid lists (posted elsewhere) would be of some help?
To Joe's point, if you have a specific question, ask. Jason, Paul, Bret, and I are always on Twitter and pretty frequently check the boards here. I recognize the value of the tier rankings but one of the great things (I think) about BP is having all of this expertise in one place. Trust me, I'm no newbie, but I pick up stuff from everyone on the fantasy staff just by reading their articles and picking their brains.
I can address keeper inflation better than the league expansion question. You want to start out by applying inflation linearly but then adding a few dollars to the players at the top. In my experience, there is less variability at the top and more at the bottom, so applying a full inflation rate to a player with a $4-5 value isn't necessarily intuitive.
As far as league expansion, that's tougher for me to answer from experience. Having more teams will push prices up, but you'll find that some teams probably won't adjust as well. There's a balance between making sure you allocate money correctly versus spending on 3-4 top players and cashing out early because you were trying to spend "correctly."
There will be updates every week from now through Friday, April 5. As the season gets closer, there will be more frequent updates that I will try to blast out through my Twitter (@MikeGianella) as well. Headley's price will be downgraded shortly.
Knowing it is 14-team makes me think it is a better offer than if it were a 12-team.
I've been asked this via e-mail. This is a great idea...but not something Baseball Prospectus is offering this year. You can drag an copy the tables into Excel. I realize that this isn't a perfect solution, but I tried it earlier and it wasn't particularly difficult or time consuming.
I have proposed adding this feature for 2014.
While Zimmerman might arguably be the best player in the deal, I feel like the other three all have less value in mixed than they do in only. In a deeper league, this might be fairer, but I feel that in shallow Zimmerman gets moved with three guys that - while possibly useful in a mixed - aren't much better than your typical FA. Meanwhile, Wieters, Darvish and (to a lesser extent) Putz are harder to replace.
I haven't played in an old school league like that in quite some time. But from what I remember, you're correct that you definitely don't want to gamble on marginal starting pitchers. You're better off with a middle reliever, especially in 4x4. Taking players who are out of options that might just wind up sitting on the bench or buried is a bad idea as well. If you're going to speculate on playing time, rookies that can sent down if they crash and burn are better than players that are just going to go to the bench.
How many teams are in your league? I have touched upon some mixed league theory in my Monday bid limit pieces? In a shallower league, pay even more for the superstars than you do in the deep leagues because while you can replace your 4th or 5th outfielder rather easily, there is only one Ryan Braun and he isn't easily replaceable.
The more categories you add, the more a balanced roster becomes important. My points above about specialization apply even more. One dimensional players like Rajai Davis lose even more value...not that you'd want one of those guys in a mixed league anyway.
Adding OBP has a slight impact on hitter values overall since it's a qualitative category. Adding innings takes even more away from the relievers and makes starters even more valuable. You still want good starters, but this makes your league more like a H2H format where 200 OK innings matter more than 120 strong innings. Guys like Medlen in 2012 have a little less value in this format.
Here's a general piece I did at my previous blog a few years ago if you want more detail: http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2008/02/heaven-help-me-figuring-out-6x6.html
You're not missing something. If your league has an innings requirement it's a little bit harder to do this, but in a 4x4 you can easily blow off wins and carry mostly relievers and win or be more competitive in ERA/WHIP.
Here's a hypothetical example in a 12-team AL-only have how you would re-distribute money for closers for 4x4.
4x4 $29, $23, $23, $23, $21, $21, $19, $17, $15, $15, $14, $14, $12
5x5 $21, $18, $17, $16, $15, $14, $13, $12, $11, $10, $8, $8, $8, $7, $5
The re-distribution obviously depends on your original prices, your opinions on the quality of the pitchers available, etc. This is an illustrative example and not based on specific players.
The second part of your question is more complicated. I would advise deducting money less from the aces like Price and more from second-tier pitchers like Morrow and CJ Wilson. The value of ace ERA/WHIPs are still high in 4x4; what you don't want to pay for is decent but not great rate stats that go along with the strikeouts.
What are the categories? Is it Wins, ERA, WHIP, K and BA, HR, RBI, SB?
What are your point values?