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FINALLY! Someone has put a mathematical explanation as to why defensive metrics have recently been grossly overvalued.
You can watch many games and "see" players making good plays (or bad), but the statistical evaluation will rank the player far to the opposite end of the spectrum. Derek Jeter's defensive prowess has been the villified for several years, but gentlemen there is a reason he continues to be the shortstop for the best team in baseball. He is adequate at the position, in fact he makes very few mistakes and often makes stellar plays. Is he the gold glover (best)? Maybe not, but he is good.
I guess I am not clear on how these power rankings are determined. Because to see TB in the #2 slot makes NO SENSE. Even the summary points that out. And as for AL East bias, uh 1,2,3 ranking while Tex, Min, Chi Sox, trail Bos is ludicrous.
I get your point....but you description of evolution is about 175 degrees wrong.
Instant replay is better in getting a call right. But 2White hit it on the head, "...the resistance from MLB isn't due to length of game issues, it's due to the impracticality of implementing reviews on continuous plays."
Its frustrating listening to the commenters criticize the signings of Meche,guillen, and yes even bloomquist,when it is obvious these players are NOT stellar, The readily available replacement players are NOT so easy to identify. Boston signed Baldelli & Smoltz, the Yanks sign Gaudin, etc. The marginal guys are not guaranteed either. Meche and guillien have had their moments, just not enough of them. If they played for Bos, NYY, LAA their upside performances would have been difference makers and their failings would have been covered up by a better supporting cast. As far as relationship to the press....some reporters are relentless in their opinions on what the execs/team is doing wrong. But they dont have to prove their way is better. So perhaps they should remember it is their OPINION that various tactics are better long term solutions.
Yeah, I know the offensive performance I alluded to actually is pretty good for a good defensive catcher. My point is...if his offense deteriorates from past season performance, he aint worth it.
The comment," Mathis' power and bat control will be affected as expected for this type of injury, but neither are strengths for his game anyway." seems to minimize the need for power and bat control. If a player is a regular DESPITE his offensive game being marginal, it would seem the further decline would render the player unacceptable.
Actually Mathis has played well with the bat so far in 2010. Aberration or breakthrough? Mathis as a .250/330/420 hitter is worth it, but I dont care how good a catcher/game caller he is, if his numbers drop below that he should be replaced.
ditto, Well that decision had already been made with the player projections.
Most guys dont get much say in what position they play, but I have always felt Scott Moore would be regular MLB player right now....if he had played catcher. he has a cannon, quick feet, and his LH bat is plenty for that positon.
The Angels will win with about 89-91 wins, Seattle & Tex will be close at with 83-85 wins, and Oak will win 73. NO pecota, no #'s, just common sense.
1. Kotchman is a pretty good "get" by the M's. He is not a prototypical slugger, but all indications are he should be an ok hitter. A few long balls, some dbls, and respectable avg. and ob%. He is not going to be a star, but only 10% of MLB guys are. He hasnt done much at MLB level to date, but he is due for the above stated performances.
2.When it comes to power, you DO NEED IT. The teams that win consistently can hit it a long way. In the playoffs or when the opponents pitcher has it going, you need to score with few hits. Now you can walk, steal bunt, & SF, but an A-rod dinger takes just one guy doing the job, not four.
I am not sure all the Boston moves are geared toward Defense, but just explaining away the moves they eventually made. Remember, they were trying to sign Jason Bay and were perfectly content to keep Ellsbury in CF. Beltre will provide much more offense than Kotchman would have (I know that is subjective, but wait till Mid Sept. to ream me out if I'm not right).
This committee is just for show. The people on it are not decision makers for MLB. Sure LaRussa & Sciosia have imput on their respective teams, but only in personel decisions, not administrative ones. This just takes some heat off Bud, so he can say he has "people" (all with favorable public images) looking into changes. The real changes will come from Bud & the union.
Whoa arcee555! one post would have been enough.
Whoa Joe! You understate the age difference between Halladay, Santana, & Sabathia. Their contracts are more because they are longer term. They signed at 3 & 4 years younger than Halladays current extension, so they are being paid for how they will pitch in their early 30's, Halladay's current age. Roy is being paid for how he will pitch in his mid 30's. The talent is equal now, but what are the odds Sabathia & Santana are superior pitchers in 3 yrs from now, when Halladay is 35+ yrs old.
Whoa Joe! Don't get carried away. Halladay's contract stacks up pretty close to Sabathia & Santana. OK,OK it is slightly discounted because the per year amt is 1-3 million less, but you understate the age difference between the named pitchers. Santana signed with the mets at age 29 and Sabathia was 28, 3 & 4 years younger respectively than Roy. Yes they all pitch similarly today, but Santana & Sabathia are being paid for how they will pitch through their early 30's, Halladay's current age. Halladay is being paid for how he will pitch in his mid 30's. In 3 years I suspect Santana & Sabathia will be the superior pitchers, because of their younger ages.
Monster? Would that be a Werewolf?
As soon as I heard about the Wolf signing I also thought about Harden. When, a day later Harden signed a 1 yr 7.5 mil deal with Texas, I again thought Milw OVERPAID for Wolf. Now, I dont know, maybe Harden's wife is from Tex, or he's got a cattle ranch and wouldnt have played in Mil, but for the committment and $, I would take Harden for sure.
The point here is the Jays will get nothing if they dont trade Halladay, but what is lost in that logic is, that when the Jays signed Halladay for 4 years, they would get 4 years of service from him. The fact they will not be in the playoff hunt in 2010, doesnt negate the fact he will make the Jays better than they would be if he didnt pitch for them. Someone will have to take the hill 34 times and log 250 innings for them. Why not Roy? In a sense he is bought and paid for...well they have to pay 16 mil to him, but when ARE the Jays going to be competitive? The Mets package for J.Santana wasnt a difference maker, nor was Montreal's pkg for P. Martinez. If your not going to get a 'goodd deal, why not let the player stay, and take the picks when he walks.
Excellently written article with formidable insight. But, Jeezo, I need a to keep a google window open just to keep up with your references. I thought I was reading Ken Jennings.
The Dominican teams have final say who plays for them. But, players under contract to MLB, must have the mlb teams permission to play. So it makes sense there is a strong working relationship between the two organizations. Young players cannot be required to play in the Winter leagues, But if your MLB employer "suggests" or thinks you "should" play...what young player is going to say no? Also the pay for Winter leagues is usually better than a minor leaguer makes in the regular season. Its good off season work.
Remember last year when, hot shot Brandon Woods started out in Winter ball, but the team cut him for poor performance very early. Not what the Angels or Wood wanted, but the Dominicans play for keeps...not like the AZL or instructional leagues.
Sciosia knows more about Molina than reputation. Mike molded Jose, he knows all his strenghts and weaknesses.
The AL west has a better overall winning %. They beat the AL East head to head. And we are only talking about one season.
so again I ask, Why is that so hard to accept?
Melky touching the ball makes this call a little less egregious. it doesnt matter where the ball landed. Where the ball was at the instant Melky touched it, determines if ball is fair or foul. Melky was running full speed and his glove outstretched makes this call difficult to keep everything aligned. Nevertheless make no mistake, Cuzzi blew the call.
Based on performance, the AL West is a better division than the AL EAST. Why is that so hard to accept?
"Despite a six-game losing streak which runs into the season's final week"
This opening line should have been enough to alert you that Boston Ain't the 3rd best team in baseball. I guess that ESPN affiliation keeps the objectivity out of the evaluation.
The reason there are so many converted catchers is because, pro players are elite. Wherever they played amateur ball, they were always one of the best on the field, thereby having some say in the position they want to play. Catcher is not the most popular position among youth leaguers. It isnt until they start getting paid, and the pyramid of talent narrows, that they realize they may need to move behind the plate to advance and keep getting a paycheck. Even so, not every marginal pro prospect can become a Catcher. A strong arm is a must, an assertive personality, and a willingness to work longer than any other position is required to. Also baseball intelligence is more of a must for the catcher, because they are involved in more of the strategy, similar to qb in football.
Smoltz IS done!
Wow, pretty critical of Kazmir and it is VERY generous to call S.Rodriguez Chone Figgins II. Just because he will be able to play inf/of he probabably will not play with the same effieciency Chone did, certainly not CF. He wont run the way Chone does, and be as valuable while the Rays wait for his bat to come around. While I originally defended the Rays in this trade, as for it not being just about salary, to label it a win for the Rays at this point is really stttrrrrreeeetttccching it.
Another reason to shake our heads at Tim McCarver in amazement....or more accurately,to the credibility he is given.
This is an interesting article, in that it confirms the writers vote for the player that gets the most hype, but often ignore the player that had the best season. Whether Mauer actually wins the SSTC isnt really significant to the argument that he is having the best season.
I have never been able to buy into PECOTA as a meaningful predictor of performance. This is where the "scouts" POV has been that any somewhat baseball savvy person can guesstimate what a player will do in the upcoming season, and they miss no less than PECOTA does, without all the calculations.
the salary "lost" by a player waiting to sign is paltry. all 1st year draftees sign for the same "salary" around $900 a month. When your talking $100,000-$250,000 additional bonus money, it pays for the player to wait it out.
Lets not get carried away. Joe Mauer would need approx 441 AB's to qualify for the batting title (assumes a 14% walk rate, his career avg.). Joe currently sits at 90 hits in 241 Ab's, to hit .3995 at 441 Ab's he needs to get 176 hits. Simply that means he would have to go 86 for 200 the rest of the season, a .430 avg. Ain't gonna happen. I dont care how big of a Joe Mauer fan you are.
I thought Ken was the best choice because he was so multi faceted. Humor, analysis, and creative. He also connected with me on his topics. Great job, I am looking forward to more, especially the wit.