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Great article. Please keep them coming. Highly enjoyable.
This is a fabulous idea. I look forward to the fallout. It should be fun.
Good article, I quite enjoyed it and it gave me pause to think. A couple of thoughts though. Why the disclaimer about gory math ahead? People either should learn it or they will skip it to the end looking for the conclusion. Secondly we always seek to quantify any impact a variable will have on the game. I suspect this is one of variables you won't be able to quantify. I believe that coaching at this level is more to what you have alluded to, a comment here or there that might have an impact. Firings are a byproduct of perceived underachievement. Whether this underachievement is attributable to the coach or the player, is something the Manager or the GM will be required to determine.
Suprising that you didn't offer a comment about Jose Batista's on base streak which also ended on Sunday. His 38 game streak ties a Blue Jays franchise record. That and the fact that the Blue Jays leading the league in home runs were largely silenced by the Angels.
Just a note to keep things correct. The Jays are not going to a 6 man rotation any time soon. Brandon Morrow was put on the 60 DL on the weekend. Surprised - not really. So for the foreseeable future Happ will be in the rotation unless he stinks so bad that Marcus Stroman gets starts earlier than anyone thought. Personally I'd like Stroman to stay in the bullpen until Sept.
Great work Russell.
There is something to be said for the difficulty of an inning. If a pitcher throws 90 pitches mostly from the stretch he's going to be gassed. If you have a pitcher throwing from the windup the same amount of pitches he'll tell you that he could go another 20 pitches. I was wondering how much of impact throwing from the stretch has on this discussion. The mechanics are different and more comes from the arm and less from the legs. Surely the difficulty of the inning, and possibly using a calculation of runners on base to add another variable might have some impact? Food for thought.
With Rzepczynski now looking for a bullpen position and Litsch competing with Reyes things are looking a little different already.
AA is sticking to the rebuilding plan. He has taken a team that had a non-existant farm system and moved it up to near the top. He continues to work towards the development of the future. I beleive he is on the right track. I believe the money will be spent mostly on the future. The Jays have a number of suplimentry picks this year. The last major question is how long and how much will Jose Bautista receive?
From the rebuilding Blue Jays you might want to consider Jason Frasor. He had 11 saves last year and is definately in the mix for the closer's job this year. He also has an improved change up which made its appearance last year as well. From the various interviews it seems that he's ready for the position and with no incumbant he may very well get the job.
When Paul Beeston (Interm President) of the Blue Jays finally annouces his replacement things will change. Most likely J.P. will be gone, since his 5 year plan failed to materialize, and he's the most hated GM in professional sports in Toronto.
Sorry my mistake I shifted gears when I was referring to 120 pitches I was talking college ball. The same for the closers. The first two sentences apply to Little League. The rest is directed at college ball. Again my mistake I will attempt to more accurate in my future posts.
You're right that younger kids 12 to 15 shouldn't throw curve balls or anything that put extreme torque on the elbow. The same thing applies to quantity though you shouldn't over extend a young arm because it causes damage. I was suggesting that perhaps a pitch count within reason such as no more than 120 pitches in and outing and then 5 days rest. You could even establish pitch counts for closers saying no more than 2 days in row or more than 4 innings in those appearances. I'm only suggesting this to protect amatur arms. In professional baseball all bets are off and pretty much what the manager wants he will get from a young pitcher.
While I've been coaching Little League I always counted pitches and never let a 12 year old starter beyond 75 pitches. In fact our association started using pitch counts after a couple of kids got hurt. I don't see an issue with establishing pitch counts to protect arms in amatur baseball. It should probably be law. Let the coaches work within limits.
It will be interesting to see how Austin Wood's arm holds up through the season.