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dREaDS Fan
157 comments | 121 total rating | 0.77 average rating
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dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Re Kingery, isn't having his home park as Reading reason enough to substantially discount his future power numbers?

Jun 19, 2017 6:43 AM on June 19, 2017
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Arroyo: major league ETA? (Seems to be missing)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Whatever became of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67472">Alen Hanson</a></span>'s prospect hopes? He made the big leagues last year - that's got to count for something?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Best of luck. I've probably read 80% of your stuff the last 18 months, which probably says something about me but more importantly says something about your writing.

Sep 30, 2016 4:38 AM on No Projection Left
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

No Benitendi on Sunday? 4 for 5 with 2 doubles and 2 HRs? (Moncada had a good day, too: 3 for 4.)

Aug 01, 2016 4:03 AM on Games of July 29-31
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Hanson's absence caught my eye, too. I look forward to seeing this one play out. It seems given proximity and team need (& minor league production) Hanson has a decent chance of starting at 2B in the next year or two. If he's even a 1 WAR starter (due speed & defense) in the near future, isn't that a better prospect than someone who is, like the #10 prospect, a likely 'back end' starter in 2019?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Love reading your articles, Doug, even if I can only comprehend about half of what you're writing. I did find myself scrolling up & down looking for the 2013 Latos in order to better understand the evolution of his mechanics you describe.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Thanks for this list. It's provided many hours of entertainment - reading, re-reading, sifting - since it was published last week.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Jonathan Crawford, the other player the Reds acquired in the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45581">Alfredo Simon</a></span> trade: anything there?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Great AL-only league advice! Unfortunately, I play an NL-only league.

Dec 21, 2015 6:50 AM on Second-Half Surgers
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 3

Re Appel, wow. Rather blunt with a critique you don't hear much.

Aug 05, 2015 3:31 AM on August 5, 2015
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Great stuff. Can't wait to see a similar approach taken for pitchers ... although perhaps not limited to "outputs" (e.g. for hitters, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ISO" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ISO'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ISO</span></a> / <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> / <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>) but inclusive of "inputs" (e.g. # of pitches, types of pitches, fastball speed ... ) ? I've always thought there were a relatively small number of pitcher 'archetypes' ...

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 5

Great reads your articles ... good luck at 538.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

No Tapia? It's as if Jason Park doesn't work here anymore.

Mar 24, 2015 5:41 AM on Top Hit Tools
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for this. I'm left with the question - unanswered by the article - as to why any agent would ever "be someone's source" when you paint such a one-sided depiction of the relationship benefits. Surely there's something in this exchange for you the agent? Also, isn't the scorekeeping associated with "first reported by" (& increasingly, "first confirmed by"!) simply ... inside baseball? Who really cares? So one reporter tweeted something out 10 seconds before another reporter .... 2 minutes before it's on ESPN.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

As the husband of a cognitive behavioral clinical psychologist, continued thanks for letting me read baseball content that has the side benefit of being able to share the occasional interesting psych-related study (e.g. the importance of the therapist vs. the therapeuetic technique). High leverage reading.

Nov 05, 2014 3:35 AM on Why Joe Maddon Matters
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

As a ~4x per week reader, thanks.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 4

Have you finished the 2015 Top 101 listing yet? Kidding. Good luck.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Good luck actualizing those evaluation skills & becoming a Role 7 scout! And ditto re Raimel Tapia.

Aug 28, 2014 3:10 AM on Pain Don't Hurt
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Jacob Turner: "Despite being drafted in 1985" ... is he a knuckleballer then?

Aug 12, 2014 12:27 PM on Week 19
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Re Alen Hanson, 1) Didn't he already (maybe over the weekend) get moved permanently to 2b? 2) "he does not constitute his athleticism": constitute is the new "actualize" in the BP prospect lexicon! Nice. 3) It seems getting properly set - right balance, right timing - at the start of each pitch should be a learnable skill. More a mental thing than a physical thing. Is his inability to consistently get set properly indicative of his reported makeup issues?

Aug 04, 2014 3:24 AM on August 4, 2014
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 3

Rock Shoulders has "some of the strongest legs I've ever seen". Is this for real? I had to check that it's not 4/1 and that the pitcher of the night wasn't Sid Finch.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 4

Nicely done - today's post & the last ~5 (?) years. It wasn't until I saw you on MLB Network that I realized how young you really are (& look). Would never have guessed based on the sagacity of your writing.

Jul 11, 2014 5:08 AM on Forever Changes
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Wishful thinking that Ervin is struggling at Double-A ... unfortunately it's Low A. (but maybe the wrist issue from the offseason is holding him back?) After 1:3, the teams making the pick is missing from the writeup. Some of us don't have these things memorized! Enjoyed this.

Jun 10, 2014 4:41 AM on How Much Has Changed?
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

A weekend update sans Gregory Polanco ... what are the odds?

Jun 02, 2014 7:58 AM on Games of May 30-June 1
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -1

Can Lorenzen realistically be that different a player than who you saw 2 months ago in camp? Or did you just miss his potential then somehow? It seems you were comfortable in the "consensus" then, which luckily doesn't seem to include the Reds front office, who saw the starting potential when drafting him ... and presumably just 2 months ago when the "consensus" (including BP) saw reliever.

Jun 02, 2014 7:06 AM on June 2, 2014
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -2

Re Polanco & "trying to throw before he received the ball" - is this a troll?

May 27, 2014 4:04 PM on May 27, 2014
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

He's playing ... just not meeting the criteria for inclusion in MLU: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=595879

Apr 28, 2014 12:39 PM on Games of April 25-27
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Ditto on the congrats. Question: Was that article in any form published on Baseball Prospectus as well? (Or does only Grantland get your Spira-worthy efforts??) Don't take offense - I just never read Grantland .. but if need be will put it in my rotation.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 3

How come no sidebar authored by Prof Parks slagging off the PECOTA prospect approach? Kidding. Very much looking forward to this series ... with eyes wide open as to the limitations of a numbers-only approach.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 4

Love the approach - using the offday as a simpler proxy for complete games. That's the kind of seeing-beyond-the-obvious problem structuring (& then backing it up with the analytics) that keeps me subscribing.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

No love for Robert Stephenson? Aren't his best 2 pitches a fastball and curve??

Mar 04, 2014 5:36 AM on Best Fastball/Curveball
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

No Polanco despite the production hole in the Pirate's RF ... and despite the Pirates needs to eek out 1 or 2 incremental wins this year to repeat in the playoffs? Polanco moreso than anyone on this lists looks to be, despite the Pirates frugal ways, a potential pre-June callup.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Billy Hamilton, "60 runner". You'd think even in high school his 70+ (80?) grade speed would have been apparent.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Miller > Wacha on the under-25 list? Splitting hairs probably, but wouldn't have guessed that. Unrelated, can the Cards join he 'Stros in the AL West please?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Jackie Bradley Jr somehow was an eligibility (or other) oversight on the part of everyone who didn't draft him prior the 8th round, right?

Feb 05, 2014 7:48 AM on Rounds 8-10
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

PECOTA still loves Lincecun. I don't know whether PECOTA factors in fastball velocity like some other projection systems? If it doesn't, wouldn't that help explain its continued Tim crush?

Feb 04, 2014 8:32 AM on Parsing the PECOTAs
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 3

Don't sell Cozart short ... he's been 2.4, 2.1 fWAR last 2 years since taking over the starting role. (Projected for another ~2.5 this year.) And he's still cost controlled. The Reds could have done a lot worse.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Shades of grey. There's a 7 (#1 pitcher) ... and then there's a 7 (#2 pitcher). Quoting from prior writeups: Bradley: Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 1 starter Walker: Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter Bundy: Overall Future Potential: High 7; no. 1 starter Sanchez: Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Notably missing is an idea for the Reds, who as a team on the bubble of contention, are much more deserving of suggested "moves they need to make" than are teams with little chance of contention in '14 (e.g. Cubs, Mets). Maybe it's not because the Reds aren't deserving of suggestions but because there's a dearth of ideas on what they should do?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

On the same page ... Meso being 29 of 30 seems to be selling him short quite a bit. Not that long ago he was a Top 25 prospect based on offense ... and he's never been given the consistent playing time to either prove or disprove that ranking.

Jan 29, 2014 8:21 AM on Catchers
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Who is going to play 2B for the Rockies? (No one on the chart it seems.)

Jan 29, 2014 6:50 AM on Second Basemen
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

In Jason's defense, that paragraph then continues: " Looking at the overall package, I’m hesitant to get too crazy with the projections because of the questions about his delivery." And the theme of the overall piece (a Cole vs. Bauer scouting report from their college days) is that Bauer's mechanics (a) will impede command/control (spot on), (b) may be artificially elevating his stuff. Basically, Jason liked Cole much better than Bauer. (Spot on.)

Jan 28, 2014 6:15 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Seems there's an upside to KG's departure after all ...

Jan 27, 2014 1:28 PM on Top 101 Prospects
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Isn't the gating factor on publishing the list out when the Annual gets shipped? So shouldn't the congrats be pointed towards Sam Miller, et al? (Received my Annual Saturday ... thanks, all.)

Jan 27, 2014 5:23 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Been looking to this for some time ... 1) Had you compiled the list more recently (I'm presuming the list was done last fall for Annual publication reasons), would Polanco, given his winter league exploits, been higher? 2) What combination of science and art will you use to look back in X years to assess this list versus the plethora of other lists out there?

Jan 27, 2014 4:58 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

You start down the right path in looking at cumulative stats thru Age 25 ... but then say "the only argument against doing a long-term deal with Kershaw" is one in which you cherry pick pitchers who at age 25 have SINGLE YEAR stellar performances. Why lower the sample bar that way? Why not look at what the Johnson / Seaver / Clemens crowd did over their collective 7 seasons post age-25? Isn't that we should be looking at? If the Johnson / Seaver / Clemens sample set falls apart after age 25, well then there's a cautionary note.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Understand you've been burnt by Maybin and are on the rebound, but the Padres can't walk away as simply as you. Have to think the team is going to give him every chance to rebuild some value - for trade to unclog the OF, because of the glimpses he showed in '12, etc -and that come Opening Day he's starting in CF. Simply don't buy he's on the bench.

Jan 10, 2014 9:38 AM on San Diego Padres
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -3

There's probably a Story behind the use of 'except' for 'accept'. Dickerson, who seemingly has a chance to be a platoon player or maybe more this year doesn't qualify as a Top 10 prospect? Glad we're into the NL finally!

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Fantasy impact for AJ Pollock, seemingly the starting CF now in AZ ... ???

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 4

Very impressive results .. need to pay more attention to your bold predictions next year!

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Indeed! Because he's such a WHIP killer, Volquez was available in my 12-team, NL-only league ... each of the last ~3 years about a month or so after the auction. (Basically, when someone gave up on the rebound theory.)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 4

Aren't the Pads cutting ties with Volquez ... undermining the "pitching in the best pitcher's park one could hope for" element of the arguement?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Spot on. I hear (on podcasts & increasingly so on TV/radio) references to fWAR & bWAR ... never can recall a reference to bpWARP. If you build this hopefully better tree in a walled-off forest, there's not enough people to watch it stand (or fall). You're not just trying to improve on the measurement of WAR ... but also build awareness and broader usage of whatever you end up with.

Aug 21, 2013 9:11 AM on The Series Ahead
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Love the MLU - thanks despite the occasional update 'wavers' as you say. Stephenson promoted to AA I think I saw?

Aug 12, 2013 4:29 AM on Games of August 9-11
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

We're all getting spoiled by the daily updates ... I guess a hiatus and the random missed day is allowed! (Backhanded compliment.)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

Thanks. Makes much more sense. "Causal mechanics" sounds sufficiently technical to be real ... so much so I didn't recognize it as a typo.

Jul 03, 2013 8:16 AM on Wednesday, July 3
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

"Causal mechanics" = ? (From the Maikal Franco notes regarding his arm accuracy - "accuracy affected by his causal mechanics") Is that fancy-speak for poor mechanics? Or does it mean something specific?

Jul 03, 2013 6:20 AM on Wednesday, July 3
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Asked and answered ... never mind. (Put the Reds down for 3 in the Top 50, though!)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -1

Tony Cingrani - would he have made the list had he not been called up?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

Ditto! Broxton (ineffective and) on the DL ... Marshall with troubling shoulder-related DL stints ... JJ Hoover not stepping up as many had hoped ... LeCure dropping off LeCliff recently ... I'll take that guy the non-Brit Dave Cameron put on a pedestal, Jesse Crain!

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Is there a mock draft somewhere in those 70,000 words? Did I miss it somehow?

Jun 06, 2013 9:38 AM on What to Watch For
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

"10 bold fantasy predictions" is a reader magnet. Not sure why you guys don't do more of these ... and perhaps before drafts/auctions next time around?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Re Goodwin, "Double-A arm-side pitching shut him down". If he's a switch hitter does that make sense? (Isn't arm-side pitching a RHP vs a RH hitter? And a LHP vs. a LH hitter?)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Some questions: 1) I noted that 20 of the 50 are pitchers. Given in typical fantasy leagues only ~30% of auction money is spent on pitchers (and also because pitchers ramp up their innings over time and obviously because of injury risk), wouldn't it make more sense if less of your Top 50 were pitchers? (For my league I try to avoid having any of my 4 minor league spots taken up by pitchers) 2) How did you factor in ETA in the majors? Guys like Archie Bradley are not only pitchers but also years from the majors (I think). Give me a AA "6" versus a Low A "potential 7+" any day.

Mar 07, 2013 3:12 PM on Part One: 1-50
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Would the question of this year's attendance lend itself to a bit more quantitative modeling to get to an answer more granular than up/down/flat? If 2013 attendance is a function of (a) this year's record (via PECOTA), (b) last year's record & playoff finish, (c) team specific attendance history & norms, (d) other factors, would there not be a (not so) quick & simple analysis that could point to actual numbers ... and in turn zero in on teams facing sizable revenue holes / windfalls ?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 2

Thinking a bit more about the suggestion of ball-to-ball variance in the drag of a baseball, some thoughts / questions: 1) Presumably that variance would result from variations in the height of the seams? Or from differences in the surface of the ball itself? (E.g. rougher ball, more drag) 2) A pitcher would typically gravitate, if given the choice, towards a ball with heightened seams ... but any benefit the pitcher derives from that (e.g. increased break) could be, presumably, counteracted by the additional distance that same ball, when well hit, might travel?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 3

Please renew my subscription.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

"Persistent sequencing issues" was kind of lobbed in at the end without (I think) support ... am I missing something?

Dec 27, 2012 3:50 PM on Leery of Liriano
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

In writing up Grilli, don't you have to tee up the knock-on effect that results from his signing? Namely, that Hanrahan will likely soon be the subject of a TA?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Nicely done in describing the Reds' needs ... and tagging Hannahan as the perfect solution to those needs.

Dec 12, 2012 10:13 AM on Wednesday, December 12
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

This is down in the weeds, but Arenado (with all the emerging flaws & doubts as detailed above .. and still in the minors) is ranked above Wilin Rosario on the <25 listing?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Woops ... blew right thru that. Apologies.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -1

Oh, & I too miss the stars ...

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -4

I miss the ETA section from the KG era. (Apologies if that was already mentioned.)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

So no 1- to 5-star overall grade? How do you translate from the 2-8 overall grade to KG's old 1-5 star scale?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Congrats, Jason, and can only infer you'll be moving from generally prospect-barren Brooklyn and its surrounds to less hipper but target richer prospect environs. #Want Off the top of my head, some relocation suggestions: Dayton ... Quad Cities ... Bakersfield ... Jackson, MS.

Sep 04, 2012 11:50 AM on Changing of the Guard
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Reds should pull the trigger on that trade based on Big O's pitching Wednesday night alone!

Jul 26, 2012 11:09 AM on The Best Trade Rumor Yet
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 3

What get's lost in the "Appel is greedy / Boras is pulling the strings" hyperbole is that it's simply appears a poor economic decision on their part to not sign. When you factor in the time cost of money for the $3.8m bonus and delaying albeit low probability free agency payout by a year, he'll need to make much more with next year's bonus to come out ahead. Making much more in next year's bonus means getting drafted much higher, which is risky, and also converting that draft selection into a corresponding bonus, also risky given he'll be a senior sign.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 5

How about separately capturing the experiment results of "quasi-scouts" like KG, Professor Parks, others who presumably have a better eye for these things?

Jul 06, 2012 6:53 AM on The Blind BABIP Test
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Hits: R, R, L, L, L, R, R, R, R Fun experiment ... thanks.

Jul 06, 2012 5:29 AM on The Blind BABIP Test
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Re pitch frequency being correlated with swing-&-miss rate: wouldn't that be correlation without causation?

Jun 12, 2012 7:40 AM on Scouting with PITCHf/x
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 5

Yep, I'm renewing my subscription. Great article.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Have to ask: player index this year?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Meant to say ... as a Reds fan, your departure is softened by the fact the Astros will soon be in the AL.

Jan 25, 2012 2:33 AM on Last Pitch
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Good luck Mike. In a short time you became my favorite BP author. As a Reds fan, your de

Jan 25, 2012 1:49 AM on Last Pitch
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -2

I like the accountability approach undertaken by Project Prospect, which look back at the cumulative WAR generated by the players on past Top 100 lists by BP / BA / ESPN. Ultimately, isn't that a good, accountable measure of a prospect prognosticator's results?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 6

It's not quite Xmas, but close. Look forward to a winter full of prospect reads. Separately , as a Reds fan, could we keep the Astros in the NL Central for another 3 or 4 years?

Nov 01, 2011 3:37 AM on Astros Top 11 Prospects
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

No faith in Cozart? I think he's above avg (offense & defense) next year at SS for the Reds.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

ditto - did the same based solely on the KG Altuve hype machine

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Great stuff - thanks.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Awesome - thanks for taking the time.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Adding to that & looking to the future, what areas of sabermetric research have the most potential to impact the game ... and what is that impact on the 1-10 scale? (E.g. Pitch F/X-based research ... 8? etc).

May 19, 2011 8:25 AM on Ask a Sabermetrician
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Great read. But as I was reading, I found myself looking for some basic data to to support some of the points made. E.g. #/% of MLB pitchers by avg fastball velocity grade (80/70/60/) ... how do MLB pitchers break out by body type? ... etc. That nit aside, looking forward to the rest of the series.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

No love for Charlie Blackmon yet this year ... despite hitting .342/.429/.616? He's on my fantasy team ... when's he going to be in the bigs, KG? (Kidding.)

Apr 25, 2011 12:30 PM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for taking the time to respond. Again, great article - both the insights and how you lay them out.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Apologies, couple more (your article is on my mind): 5) What about the reframed, composite final "break" velocity - the combination of horizontal & vertical velocities? Might there be a relationship between it and whiff rate? 6) Perhaps this is obvious, but it seems that rethinking pitch f/x in terms of the batter's reference point leads to the quantitative basis for why a high arm-slot pitcher should throw a curve (the arm slot is best for maximizing a curve's Vzf) and a 3/4 arm-slot should throw a slider (arm slot & release point support maximizing Vxf). I guess my question is: are there other takeaways from this line of thinking for either evaluating amateur talent or developing that talent?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 1

Again, great article. Some questions ... 1) Implicitly pitch speed impacts Vzf but so does release point. Chris Young's mid-80s stuff might have the same Vzf as a 6'0" mid-90s thrower. I wonder if that relationship might be shown numerically (i.e. combinations of pitcher avg fastball speed & release height that result in similar Vzf.) 2) Should we see Verlander listed in the pitchers with least Vzf? Understanding why he isn't in that list would help explain how the mix of high & low fastballs thrown impacts average Vzf that was used to calculate that list. 3) Someone above mentioned the "meatball" -7 degree sweet spot. By chance is there a list of pitchers who throw (on average, '08-'10) closest to the meatball angle? (Fantasy auction upcoming ... always looking for pitchers to avoid.) 4) Related, the typical pitcher might throw his fastball high or low in the zone. How big a spread in Vzf do you see in a given pitch from a given pitcher based on location? (The Lincecun graph shows the spread for all pitches, not just fastballs.) I'm asking only because I'm wondering how misleading the "average" Vzf metric is - a pitcher could throw 50% of pitches on either side of the meatball speed and average out to a 100% meatball pitcher.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

Caught that ... poor humor on my part.

Mar 16, 2011 6:55 AM on How CHIPPER Works
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: 0

I was looking for but never saw in the article IN CAPS below: "We've heard your questions about what chipper means, where the projections came from, and HOW THEY DIFFER FROM WHAT OTHERS PROVIDE, and it's time for us to answer them." How does CHIPPER differ from last year's system ... other systems? (NOMAR?)

Mar 15, 2011 8:07 PM on How CHIPPER Works
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Contenders improve Rays, Braves, Yanks, Reds, Phils, Rangers Can others break through?

 
dREaDS Fan
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How does this compare To value based ranking? Correlation high. (correlation: 0.92 vs. http://redsminorleagues.com/2011/01/07/john-sickels-farm-system-rankings/)

 
dREaDS Fan
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By chance is PECOTA/PFM over-penalizing Colorado pitchers for pitching in Coors? Without exception, the Colorado pitcher rate stats in PFM seem high relative other forecasts. Here are ERA/WHIP projections from PFM. I won't list other systems (i.e. marcel, oliver, etc) comparable projections, but from my quick review they are uniformly lower than these: Ubaldo: 3.94 / 1.38 Hammel: 5.06 / 1.48 de la Rosa: 5.01 / 1.50

 
dREaDS Fan
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SIERA? I pre-ordered the book and have received it but am not looking at it as I type. From memory, the '10 book had SIERA ... the '11 book doesn't and rather only has FRA. Shouldn't your recently developed metric that best predicts ERA be included?

 
dREaDS Fan
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Thanks. You answered the question I was about to ask: How do I easily find the list of big dropoff's / gainers (the bold predictions that will potentially make the cover of the '12 edition) without sifting thru all the writeups looking for elliptical hints.

 
dREaDS Fan
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I think in my mind the question I'd like to see addressed is: What is Pujols worth (in $) over a 10-year period starting 2012? Couldn't you in Fangraphs-like fashion put a $ value on his next ten years, assuming -a revised aging curve based on comments above -resulting WAR/WARP -inflation adjusted $/WAR(P)projections? And, for fun, could you - paying heed to the "rumors and innuendo" (which BP's own podcast perpetuates!) assume Albert is really 2 years older than stated and see how that impacts what he's worth over the next 10 years?

Feb 21, 2011 8:10 AM on Projecting Pujols
 
dREaDS Fan
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Think this is a bug: Starting point: Auction / use inflation - yes / user-centric inflation 1 After taken players are entered for both other teams & my team, if I change "user-centric inflation" to "0 - none", my taken (keeper) players disappear. They are neither in the list of other team's keepers nor are they in the available player listing.

 
dREaDS Fan
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This I don't understand: With zero keepers selected for my own and other teams, when switching from "0 - user centric inflation" to "1 user centric inflation" the values of players shift. But if there are no keepers selected, shouldn't the values stay the same? (Auction / NL only / 4 x 4 / SGP on / use infation "yes")

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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I've got the problem (believe mentioned above, too) where the salaries for my players (my players only - not other teams') get reset to $1 after saving.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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All is forgiven ... ... but when I click "submit PFM parameters" shouldn't something happen? (Are the lights dimming at BP Headquarters as the new servers strain under the load of pent up PFM demand?)

 
dREaDS Fan
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dREaDS Fan
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Alas, as it turns out, the hope of an early PFM (& that of an on-time PFM) has been dashed.

 
dREaDS Fan
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Belt wasn't eve on the 2010 list. Is there any precedent for a 1-year ascendance from unworthy of mention in an org's top prospect listing to 5-star prospect status?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Surely you didn't get to 6am on the day of the previously announced rollout and then make the decision to delay it? Could you have perhaps given us a bit more heads up? (I have told many a fantasy league owner over the weekend that I'd respond to their trade offers ... on Monday when my PFM-reliant spreadsheet is up & running.)

 
dREaDS Fan
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Ok, so the Cardinals are in this year. But did a player index make the cut this year? (Was it last year or two years ago there wasn't a player index?)

 
dREaDS Fan
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ditto that request ... please (and as part of that, perhaps a review on how PECOTA does relative other systems in projecting prospects? ... i know the Oliver system prides itself on its prospect projections)

 
dREaDS Fan
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Hey KG - is Frazier a 2 or 1 star prospect nowadays? Quite the slide from 4 stars last year. And while I understand the rationale, stepping back last year was the only year Frazier hasn't hit (I think). Could he bounce back as quickly as he fell down?

 
dREaDS Fan
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de la Rosa? I caught that, too. Made me think twice about keeping him in my deep NL-only league.

Feb 07, 2011 9:31 AM on They're Here!
 
dREaDS Fan
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Down in the weeds, but Fred Lewis is on the Reds nowadays, not TOR. (I was curious how bad a LF the Reds will field this year between Lewis & Gomes.)

Feb 07, 2011 8:19 AM on They're Here!
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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No updates to the PFM engine and algorithms itself then? (Not that any are needed)

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Echoing earlier question: when PFM?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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As a Reds fan, the Cubs' move is pure schadenfreude. Keep it up, Jim Hendry. Unrelated, is this article ... Transaction Analysis Redux? Same topic, even similar wandering prose style, and maybe even some of the same conclusions (?) as C Kahrl's from a day or so ago?

 
dREaDS Fan
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Impressive names & seasons on that list ... but Barton's season last year was ~3.6 WAR (zero'ing out defensive value) ... becuase he doesn't hit the long ball like most of the guys on that list. Too sabre a question, but is a 3.6 WAR hitter at 1B a 5-star hitting prospect?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Wow - Michael Taylor almost fell completely off the Top 11 ... from 5 (?) stars the year before. Outside of injury or other non-performance related causes, has that happened before?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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New beer game idea: drink every time the Professor says "actualize".

 
dREaDS Fan
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Second the "love the prospect talk" comment above. Looking forward to (hopefully) comparably long Top 11 discussions on forthcoming lists. Believe you mentioned on the podcast that M Trout is 1 of 3 prospects you considered for the #1 overall prospect honor. I'm trying to think thru who the other 2 under consideration could have been: Chapman (presuming he's still a prospect), Julio Teheran, Bryce Harper, Jesus Montero, Pineda, Moutsakas. My money is on Chapman and ... hmm ... Teheran.

 
dREaDS Fan
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You could probably sell the results to most every agent out there.

Jan 09, 2011 4:11 AM on The Jock Tax
 
dREaDS Fan
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As I think about it a bit more, I think what you're trying to do is calculate,for two different teams, the pre-tax salaries that result in the same after-tax income factoring in state (local, too?) taxes & road schedule. I.e., if the Yankees offer a $1m salary, how much do the Rangers have to offer (presumably less than $1m) for the player to have the same take-home. The index values should be directly usable to make that type of estimate. Making up numbers here, but $1m x (94 / 103)= ... where Texas and NYY are 94 & 103. Good luck ... curious as to the results, specifically the magnitude of "advantage" some teams have relative others in competing for free agents.

Jan 09, 2011 4:01 AM on The Jock Tax
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Here's an idea: create an index (where some middle of the road team =100) for expected take-home pay after estimating the impact of the home state income taxes as well as the prevailing states that team plays in on the road. So if Florida Marlins are 100 .. maybe the Yankees are 93 (based on higher state taxes and playing a lot of games in high-tax states like MA?). Putting something to numbers might help understand the magnitude of the advantage or disadvantage certain teams have in free agency because of their home states.

Jan 07, 2011 1:30 PM on The Jock Tax
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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This is down in the weeds, but why discuss xFIP on Capuano but SIERA on Garza? Shouldn't BP stick to SIERA ... consistently?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Maybe a bit on how you thought about including Larry Walker but not Alan Trammel?

Jan 04, 2011 6:50 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Where/when would we see the results? (Presumably not in the Annual's printed projections of Julio Teheran, for example, right?) What would be the difference in major league projected SIERA for a Julio Teheran, for example, before/after the change in the translations? (Sizable?)

 
dREaDS Fan
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Are some of these guys "prospects" or not? Brandon Allen & Dom Brown (& Kimbrel & Ramos?) are too experienced for the Top 11 prospect lists ... yet are the centerpiece of an article sub-titled "how free agency and trades have had an impact on NL prospects". I'm splitting hairs ... but only becuase I'd have liked to have read about B'Allen in the D'Backs Top'11.

Dec 30, 2010 8:12 AM on Monday Ten-Pack
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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While touching on most every player on the Braves, somehow McCann (highest WAR amongst all catchers last year) and the hole that was CF (McLouth/Cabrera - lowest 2 WARs amongst all CFs last year) didn't make the cut. If there's a 2011 decision to be explored, isn't it whether or not to trade pitching for a CF?

Dec 24, 2010 7:15 AM on Just Stick to the Plan
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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This is perhaps the HotStove Fever speaking, but it seems the Reds match up better for the other Upton than they do BJ and the Rays. The Rays, as you say, don't particularly need another starting pitcher a la Volquez. The D-Backs are pitching needy & the Reds have the additional required pitchers/players/prospects (Mesorasco et al) to pull a J-Up trade off.

Nov 18, 2010 3:33 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
dREaDS Fan
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Shouldn't Brandon Allen still be ranked as a prospect as he's got all of 2 September call-ups (I think) of MLB experience at this point? (And who knows, maybe Geoff Blum is the starting 1B next year while Brandon works the swing in AAA.)

 
dREaDS Fan
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Warning, snarky comment: Sometimes I simply can't parse your phrasing, Christina. Last paragraph of this post is an example - case in point: First sentence: Now, .. , when ... ,of ... Final sentence: But ... , even ... , beyond ... when ... . (I love the Anthopoluous maneuver as well. Wonder how long he's been laying in wait to find the right situation to pull that off.)

Nov 10, 2010 9:54 AM on First-Strike Options
 
dREaDS Fan
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The Mets would be a great fit ... presuming "MoneyBall Meets the Metropolitans" doesn't embark on a tear-down and punt 2011, in which case ponying up up for the money Garland will want after his 2010 doesn't make a lot of sense.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Tim Alderson is no longer worth inclusion even in the "9 more"? Wasn't he a 4-star prospect not that long ago?

 
dREaDS Fan
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Somewhat related now that we're into the offseason: When do the team-by-team Top 11 prospect rankings start to emerge (in frustratingly infrequent - kidding - drips and drabs) out of the palatial setting in which you labor, Kevin?

 
dREaDS Fan
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Any chance AJ Pollock, with a strong AFL and spring, fills the d'Backs gaping hole in LF next year? Or out of the question?

 
dREaDS Fan
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Don't the Reds have yet another 2B prospect in the mix? Todd Frazier, who not that long ago was a (I'm paraphrasing from a recent Annual, but not sure which) a "potential Jeff Kent-style 2B". I know he's started playing some LF, but is his future (what there is of it if we ignore regression at AAA this year) back in the infield?

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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If KG at BP can figure out a 5-star prospect is tipping pitches, why can't the Cardinals' minor league pitching instructors & coaches? Separate question: Believe you may have explained this in the past, but knowing in general what a 40/50/60/70/80 curveball, changeup, etc is would be helpful in reading writeups like this.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -1

Indeed! McLouth's PECOTA-juiced forecast (together with similarly optimistic projections for Kyle Lohse and Joe Blanton) buried me in my deep NL-only fantasy league.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
Comment rating: -1

Maybe Will's got a financial interest in the one clinic that does biomechanical analyses. (I'm kidding.)

Aug 27, 2010 4:00 PM on Surgery for Strasburg
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Where has Will been wrong in the past? Either "breaking" a story or in an opinion? Nothing comes to mind that would change my view on his writing.

Aug 26, 2010 7:07 AM on Playing from Behind
 
dREaDS Fan
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Making the $40 harder to justify, 2 hours a week of Goldstein (via Podcast) is free. That's enough time for him to recite the Top 101 prospects ... walk thru all Top 11 of the Reds prospects ... all the stuff I pay for now ... and still speak about what he's drinking.

Aug 25, 2010 11:17 AM on Playing from Behind
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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It was listed as of yesterday, when I used it to send him an inquiry on where UTK had gone to hide. But not a good sign if his name is gone today ... along with what is very unique, irreplacable content.

Aug 25, 2010 7:49 AM on Playing from Behind
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Strasburg's injury + Will Carroll = Great Reading That's Worth Paying For. What gives? Is UTK UTK?

Aug 25, 2010 6:54 AM on Playing from Behind
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Re Berkman, looking forward to who's right: UTK or MLB.com. Per UTK, "There's no chance that Berkman is back soon. By soon, I mean within the next 10 days." Per MLB.com (4/7 1:58 pm): "Lance Berkman (knee surgery) plans to return sometime next week in Houston's series against the Cardinals" I wouldn't normally care but passed on a potentially very cheap Berkaman in an NL-only auction just 2 days ago based on the grim prognosis.

Apr 07, 2010 2:09 PM on Post-Opening Day Hurts
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Question: A day before my auction, I'm sifting thru players and notice that PFM has Kyle Lohse down for a 3.88era / 1.31 whip. But the Annual has him projected at a 4.45 era / 1.42 whip. What might possibly explain such a difference in rate stats?

Apr 04, 2010 8:30 PM on PFM Update 4-1
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Great article ... looking forward to PECOTA 2011 incorporating e-BABIP. Ahead of Thursday & Part III, can't you dangle some player names where there are large discrepancies between PECOTA BABIP and e-BABIP? No need to say whether the discrepancy is up or down ... in fact please don't disclose that - it'll be a challenge to guess the direction ahead of the article.

 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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So is SIERA now being employed in the 2010 PECOTA projections? How?

Feb 13, 2010 6:50 PM on Part 5
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Deep, NL-only auction league. Akin to the one I play in, so I read with interest. Could you speak to whether (or not) and how you used any PECOTA projections and/or tools (e.g. PFM ... and if so what settings) to help prepare? One thing that struck me is the uninflated prices that Pujols and Hanley garnered. They seemed high almost no matter what settings you put into PFM.

Feb 12, 2010 10:54 AM on NL Experts Auction Draft
 
dREaDS Fan
(51622)
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Last year you released a PECOTA file that wasn't playing time adjusted - e.g. it projected minor leaguers as if they were going to spend the full '09 season in the majors. I don't see the 2010 version of that file ... yet. But is it coming? (I found it useful for present valuing and ranking prospects for the minor league draft in my fantasy league.)

Jan 31, 2010 3:26 AM on May 30-June 1, 2002