CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
Can't wait for the gossip piece.
That's a lot of requirements. I've been a software engineer @ top companies for years & don't meet half the requirements. Good luck findings a single person to do all that... who knows all those systems & willing to work for the MLB discount.
It's nice to adjust pitcher performance by batters faced and park effects, but why are we concerned with a pitcher's OPS+ allowed? Isn't that going backwards from FIP and even ERA?
Interesting personal story, but nothing about Pie as a player. What does he do that showed so much promise? What has he failed to do at the major league level?
Lost you in the middle there. If there is a considerable benefit to being a high GB% pitcher that xFIP doesn't capture, wouldn't it take fewer tables to show it?
I don't doubt that your research is correct and there is an effect, but I'm having a hard time grasping the magnitude of this effect. Can you please provide some examples, on a scale like runs per game?
In no cases do SO9 rates go up from Japan to the majors. So he'll be a 4.5 K/9 soft tossing righty starter, at a time when teams are over drafting/overpaying power lefties. I don't get it. Isn't this a cheap commodity in the prospect ranks?
NLP (natural language processing) is pretty amazing when it works :-)
There is a startup that does *automatic* natural language game summaries. It is probably neutrally biased by default... but I'm sure they can tune a function to *favor* a home team as well!
Here is a sample game summary for a Big Ten baseball game:
Yes he did pass away. I meant Ted Lilly. I tend to confuse the two, for some reason.
Not quite. Pitchers' expected IP can be predicted quite well without looking at depth chart or other team considerations (assuming that teams don't stockpile pitchers in inferior roles, which they rarely do). Depth charts can be (and are used, in the case of PECOTA, as far as I know) to adjust these IP projections.
However IP should not be set by role primarily. CC Sabathia should be expected to throw more innings than Cory Lidle, even if both are guaranteed slots in the rotation. Giving them the same IP projection because they have the same role would not work very well. Looking at both the IP and VORP projections from PECOTA, they consistently over-estimate these values. I assume these are not lineup-adjusted? Does anyone know this? I'm very curious :-)
OK I see that you specifically mention CHONE projections as well as PECOTA. However if these systems systematically over-estimate VORP for a general class of player, than this both a problem, and something that can be corrected (by decreasing projections for this class of player to minimize error).
I only looked at pitching projections, but I found that PECOTA and VORP both over-estimate IP for pitchers by large factors. PECOTA also systematically over-estimates pitcher VORP, both for veterans, but especially for young pitchers (CHONE does not project VORP directly). Maybe there are projection systems out there that have better results?
In any case, I'm not sure that projected VORP has much to do with value of free agents? But certainly one should not put too much emphasis on the expected vs actual value, based on expected estimates that tend to be 16% high on average...
1. Why do you not control for age? Calculate average age-based incline/decline for all free agents (new team or not) for each year, and show values adjusted based on that?
2. Maybe I'm missing something, but why do you say "projection systems" when you are only looking at PECOTA? What other projection systems did you consider?
Very interesting study! Thanks!
Were Youk, Pedroia & Papelbon slot or above slot?
I don't disagree with the arguement, but what evidence do we have for Red Sox achievement via over slotting? The Yanks have been paying above slot for a while, and while it hasn't hurt them, those guys haven't been making it to the majors all that often.
Nice article, as always!
Would it be possible to link the beginning part about salary percentages into the tables somehow? Could we see a column for what % of full value a team payed for their wins? Or maybe just an estimate based on the 10%-40%-60% breakdown for league-min & arbitration eligible players? It would be nice to see a figure showing what percentage of full value the Phils & Marlins are paying for their wins, vs the Yankees.
On a (hopefully minor) point, taxes for MLB players are actually even more brutal than the rest of us. Since the players play one week/year in Minnesota, one week in Detroit, etc, some of those states & cities charge them a tax for that time also. Again not sure this matters, just though I'd point it out. On the other hand, if Jason Bay plays in New York, but *resides* elsewhere, especially during the offseason (he pays even less tax if he can claim that he has not been in NYC for more than half the business days of the year), he pays a lot less tax than a New York resident. This is why some wealthy New Yorkers live in Connecticut. So the difference in taxation might be more or less than the straight NY vs MA figure you quoted. Not sure it matters, but just wanted to point this out.
Your analysis of the discount rate of 7-10% seems about right.
Naive question: Is FRA on the same scale as RA then? If we do a weighted sum of RA for a league, and that of FRA, would we end up with the same figure?
Nice article, but I think you confused a few people with your explanation of why the discount rate exits for the teams. Also, it's worth explaining why the players only care about the total figure, rather than their own discount rate, more so than owners.
Yes, the discount rate has something to do with inflation and re-investing in the team or other businesses, but this confuses the issue somewhat. Rather, anyone with $1M to invest for X years can get a safe nominal dollar return by buying government bonds that are dated for X years, money market funds, or other really safe investments. This rate changes all the time, but is historically around 2-3%. Taking a more aggressive risk profile, investors can get historical returns of around 5% in nominal terms from fixed income (bonds), and of around 10% from equities (stocks). All of this has been written about in "Random Walk on Wall St," and is known by everyone who invests amounts of over $1M. The main point is, the more risk you can take on, the higher your long term rate of return will be. Thus, your discount rate for future nominal dollar commitments is *higher* if you are able to bear more risk with the capital in question.
More than anything, back loaded contracts take advantage of the fact that team owners are wealthier than individual players. As such, they can take on higher risk investments. A player would rather get his $10M now, rather than later, but he loses relatively little to take it two years from now, since he is not rich enough to invest the entire $10M (or $5M after taxes) into the highest returning vehicle. However owners can invest that entire $10M into high-yielding risky assets that (over the long run) return higher nominal returns than treasury bonds. Moreover, the owner might be able to pursue higher returns still from private investments (such as investing in his own ball club, buying out business partners, etc). If he did not think that these investments would yield more than treasuries, he does not need to make them.
Then of course there are taxes. Deferred payments can be a huge win for both players and teams because of uneven taxation. If Bobby Bonilla stands to make $10M per season as a player for the Mets, and roughly $0M after he retires, he might be much better off taking deferred payments for 20 years, even without any interest on those payments! After he retires, Bobby can move to a low-tax state like Florida (or Puerto Rico), get himself a good accountant, and end up paying maybe half as much tax as he would have, earning $10M per year as a New York Met. The owner, of course, would be happy to take the discount rate on Bobby Bo's deferral. The only loser is the state of New York.
Of course, the players and owners would never say that. They will talk about how they are saving money now to get better players and to win a championship for the fans. Which is also good economic sense for both sides, FWIW.
Again, nice article, but I thought I'd point out a few further angles here...
Cool beans. Any idea *why* teams are not offering arbitration to these guys that they don't really want to keep? Is there a greater (real or perceived) loss in that 20%-50% chance that he takes arbitration and ends up costing you an extra couple million, beyond what you might be willing to pay or for a return in a trade? Are there any rule in place, for example, that restrict a team's right to trade such a player?
Your economic analysis is sound, but I wonder if there are any other factors at play?
You say that pitchers are either "injury risk candidates" or not. Do you know of any studies that have attempted to measure season-to-season correlation in injury time/lost performance? I built a system to predict future DL days based on past injuries (from DL history), but the best correlation I could come up with was not very high. Do you know if anything better?
The percentile for Weiters are based on a full season. The 10th percentile for 1/2 a season might be lower.
Also in the model, how long is the expected time to establish a level of performance? I would image it has to be at least a few weeks before you bench/send down a prospect?