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"Ademan is a young, left-handed shortstop..."
I flipped out until I realized you meant left-handed HITTING.
Will we ever again see a left-handed 2B, SS, 3B or C?
I'm an old <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jim+Hickman">Jim Hickman</a></span> fan so I have to standup for him and point out he had a .698 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> (.267 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a>) in 1965
The Nats played a four (not three) game series against the Phillies (they won 3)
The additional argument for idea #4 is that you have the 5th thru 9th best teams out of 15 in the league vying for a single elimination Wild Card slot as the away team. It's a fight over a lottery ticket and none of these teams are more than minimally deserving of post-season play. In fact, rather than ruminate over what tie-breaker rules are fair, you could draw lots. Not much fun, but it's fair.
There should be some room for rotation among "natural rivals". The Braves and Red Sox have a Boston connection. You could also tie the Brewers to Seattle.
Great job but quite a few typos.
The two defensive plays shown are both the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52054">Alex Gordon</a></span> catch
A 15 point slide in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> implies a large move across the defensive spectrum. The increased defensive flexibility in DHs that we've seen is pretty modest. In fact, I don't know that the defensive abilities of DHs have changed that much since 1998. It's just that with 13 pitchers the DHs HAVE to play the field more.
Great work. Brilliantly argued
How would you contrast Robles with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100631">Byron Buxton</a></span>?
It may not have fit into individual games, but McKinney's line amounts to two cycles in three games.
The scary thing about the Nationals goes in both directions: they went scoreless for 17 consecutive innings through Wednesday night, then scored 23 runs in the next six innings(an d were scoreless for the next 4)
Shouldn't there be a difference between the first and second games of a doubleheader? After all, players shouldn't be fatigued during the first game.
Actually the better study would be comparing the first game to the second rather than DH games to non-DH games. (Use a paired t-test)
I don't know if I can trust a scouting report that says that Kershaw is a RHP :-}
What practical difference is there between sliding your current CF to a corner (assuming he's a capable CF) to make room for Cain and putting Cain in the corner?
Cespedes's LLHR is especially precious because it looks like it came off an excuse-me swing.
I wonder when was the last time a run scored on a triple play. Has it even happened before?
You insist <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=71295">John Means</a></span> is a lefty but you list his position as RHP
Rizzo didn't score on Monday. Hedges held on to the ball and Rizzo was called out.
Does <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100899">Osvaldo Abreu</a></span> have something to offer that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67700">Wilmer Difo</a></span> doesn't?
1. Jackson Rutledge has to be a Confederate General
2. Colton Hock will be drafted by the Tigers to team up with Buck Farmer
<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> is not a rate statistic :-)
How does Yepez profile as a four corner guy?
Re; <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103432">Shedric Long</a></span> - 180 lbs. is pretty heavy for 5'8". If that's muscle, I don't see why it couldn't translate into power. Mobility could be a different matter.
Detroit's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> isn't any different from last year's. I sthat a knock on DRA or are we missing something?
"It turns out the Astros aren't invicible"
is that a combination of invincible and invisible?
You should see a gastroenterologist.
Did you take park effects into account? K and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> rates can change with park by: 1) smaller foul areas reduce foul outs, thereby lengthening counts, 2)Changes in batter and pitcher strategies
"Now, in the era of evaluative statistics, Leonard’s two outs, made under perfect baseball-like conditions, are every bit as meaningful as the single he gets credit for"
You could argue more so. After all the single occurred w/o a first baseman, not quite "perfect baseball-like conditions"
It's scary how close Rendon's double came to being a 4th <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>
Matt, wouldn't what you are arguing for require a formal classification system that would inform pitchers of their category in advance? That would create a set of different penalties for different pitchers. Also, it doesn't seem fair to treat batters hit on the hand (or arm or only the uniform?) as harshly as when they are hit elsewhere on the body.
You can't say "Dr. Strangeglove" without referencing Dick Stuart
Can't wait for Ngoepe to appear on The Daily Show
A lack of options or a conscious decision not to throw good money after bad?
Can we be so sure about the direction of causality? Do starters stay in because there are no long relievers or are there no long relievers because there's little value to replacing the starter once the team is so far behind?
"In fact, when these early season “no really, it’s stable!” articles are written, they’re usually written about players who have had conspicuous changes in their performance."
This is a key point that undermines the concept of "stabilizing". These articles are selecting for outliers and while outliers may have genuinely changed something, they are also the most likely to be statistical flukes.
How did you miss <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66018">Bryce Harper</a></span>'s two home runs (including a two out two-strike walk-off?
1.Sale may pitch inside, but when he does so it is overwhelmingly down, minimizing the risk of serious injury.
2. Hitting a batter is a bigger penalty for the pitcher when he is ahead in the count, so pitching inside, counteracting the benefit of pitching aside. It would be interesting to analyze how big an advantage there really is to pitching inside
Are there any Muslim players in American professional baseball?
I thing the year numbering is awry for the Boston example. Shouldn't Year 1 be 2012 and Year 3 be 2014?
One problem with comparing 1976-1996 with 1996-2016 is that there appears to be a plateau from 1996-2006 followed by a sharp takeoff. That would indicate that something important occurred both in 1996 and 2006, rather than just the continuation of an earlier trend.
Best-written piece you have ever done. The pacing of the piece and the turns it takes helps to make your point. You use every tool in your kit exactly when and how it should be used.
"The vast majority of the people reading this article, I trust, were not alive the last time the average team power/speed number was below 110."
That year looks to be 1976. So the VAST majority of BP readers are 40 and under?
When you showed pitchers whose DRAs changed significantly, they all got closer to their RA/9. Were there no pitchers with large changes in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> that moved farther from RA/9? It seems too good to be true if that didn't happen occasionally.
"Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides."
This makes no sense. by definition, every player has a 10 percent chance of exceeding the 90th percentile of his projection, a 20 percent chance of exceeding the 80th percentile, etc.
If managers really believed that throwing four balls for an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IBB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IBB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IBB</span></a> affected the pitcher the manager could have the pitcher switch with the SS or some other non-catcher player and have that player throw the four balls.
"Baltimore was third at 81-81, with Tampa Bay one game behind at 80-82. But the Orioles played three games that went 13 innings, going 2-1 in them. Erasing those games as 12-inning ties would drop their record to 79-80. The Rays played four games that lasted 13 innings (neither team played any games longer), with a 1-3 record. By making those games ties, Tampa Bay’s record becomes 79-78."
If you remove the 1-3 record for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TB</span></a> from their 80-82 record, wouldn't that make them 79-79?
" In 1958, NL umpires called 38 balks, more than double the 15 called the year before"
From the look of the graph, did you mean 1948?
" imagine how strange it is for Friedrich or Richard, who’re unlikely to get the credit (or pitcher wins) as starters that they might’ve picked up otherwise"
Actually, the opposite is true. Cahill would never be eligible for the win even if he was pitching when the Padres got the lead for good while Friedrich or Richard would be eligible the win even if they only pitch 3 or 4 innings (and would likely be awarded the win if they pitched the most innings)
The description of Dozier as "cromulent" was insanely on the money.
Is using the matchup information any different than applying Bayes Theorem? The established level of performance functions as a prior, in fact the odds ratio is the ratio of A to B, the parameters of the beta distribution. All you have to do is add the number of successes in the matchup to A and Failures to B and recalculate the ratio to get the posterior estimate.
When an observed ratio is reliable, A and B are relatively large, so you need lots of matchup data or very different matchup odds ratios to see an effect. many of the matchups in your analysis may happen to not be much different from the in-season estimate, so matchups that are truly different may not be represented. It would also seem that matchup data would have greater explanatory power when the non-matchup performance is less reliable.
... Wacha’s salary request at $3.2 million, which was countered by the Cardinals’ $2.8 million offer. Martinez has a bit more at stake, as he filed at $4.25 million and was met with only $3.9 million in return."
How does Martinez have more at stake? He and the Cards are $350,000 apart while there is a $400,000 difference with Wacha.
No potential for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70913">Luke Weaver</a></span> in a bullpen role? A two-pitch pitcher w/ a good fastball would seem to fit the profile.
Isn't ground ball rate, or something related to it, a component of <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a>? That would explain why there is such a strong relationship.
It actually would be interesting to look at changes in GBR and changes in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FIP</span></a> because FIP explicitly doesn't consider GBR. If there were a relationship, that would imply that we are dealing with correlation and not causation; that an improved GBR is just a reflection of pitching better in general.
There's a small bias in your calculations. Doesn't the 47% incidence of a higher leverage point after the 7th inning have something to do with inferior relievers pitching in the 7th?
It would also be interesting to ask the question a little more broadly: what are the situations in which a high leverage situation (defined as, say, at least 90% of the highest point in the game)is most likely to appear 3 batters hence? Are there any good predictors?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58899">Alex Avila</a></span>'s batting line doesn't look that bad, especially for a catcher. His <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> is over .260!
No comments on the pitchers the Nats acquired for Espinosa?
Anything to say about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103727">Brady Feigl</a></span>?
Of note is how many players on the last list were active during WWII. So either they were playing against weaker opposition or lost years to military service. Either of those could shade a HOF candidacy.
One variation on the explanations you propose: a team that falls behind in a seven game series (particularly if they are two or three games down) may adopt riskier strategies to avoid elimination at the cost of reducing their chances of winning subsequent games. Such an example would be overtaxing their best pitchers in an elimination game.
It looks like somebody or somebodies pitched a no-hitter vs. the Saguaros. No love for them?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68520">Kris Bryant</a></span> is another WPA anomaly, but he's so good by WAR hat it isn't noticeable. He's ahead of Rizzo in WAR and RE24 but wll behind in WPA.
I'm curious about Jessica's statement that Honeywell is one of the most teachable players I’ve ever covered." How do you judge that? I assume you didn't actually teach him.
Another way of saying this would be that the difference in environment between the Rockies and other teams means that trades are less likely to be mutually advantageous.
" If you think about it, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107737">Justin Dunn</a></span> is a pretty contradictory name, isn’t it?"
No, it just means he works quickly
I'm surprised you didn't rely on more Gory Math here. Even when steroid use was high, many players didn't use them, so what we should expect to see is an increase in performance variance among players. You should be able to quantify that.
Sorry, but I keep reading the title of this column as "Banjo Hitler"
Baez wins on the nonchalant throw to first!
I was thinking more like looking for your buddy in the crowd:
How about calculating Game Scores for all these 9-inning stretches?
I see that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106804">Jeffrey Rosa</a></span> is a "RFP". That would put both <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jim+Abbott">Jim Abbott</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58768">Pat Venditte</a></span> to shame. But maybe soccer players are the next underappreciated talent pool.
One thing worth mentioning about your z0 results is that even though they are all statistically significant, the coefficients can be either positive or negative. this would suggest that the observed effect is not due to z0 but to other factors that may correlate with z0 in a given year, such as the particular group of pitchers pitching that year. In other words, pitchers with higher z0 values in 2012 and 2013 were more likely to do something else that raised called strike probability; the opposite was true in 2014-2016.
What about Eva(n) Longoria?
Quite right. Perhaps a way to make the apprenticeship model more tenable would be to allow free agency after two or three years for players who don't have major league contracts.
Strasburg entered the 7th inning with 93 pitches. When he was taken out, he had thrown 109
"the Nationals took advantage of his wandering command to snap a seven-game skid"
Sorry, the losing streak ended on Sunday when they beat the Brewers.
"New York was six back of Washington just nine days ago, but the first-place Nats have since sputtered, with the gap now at 3 1/2 after the home team took the series opener"
No, the Mets are 4 back. The Marlins are 3.5 back.
Fine article but I think you overstate the private college angle. First, the Ivy League is certainly over-represented but it still represents only 16% of your sample. There may be ten times as many Big 10 graduates as Ivy League graduates but that still means they represent only 4% of all college students but 11% of the front offices. Also there is a wide range of quality and prestige among private schools; "Ivy League" and "private college" are hardly synonymous. Finally, you give little consideration to the idea that graduates of Ivy League or equally prestigious (Stanford, MIT) institutions are more likely to have demonstrated the talent or ability to succeed in their chosen field. I will readily concede that this difference is MUCH less than many people believe but it does exist and it's not trivial.
I think there are two basic reasons why "For pitchers with 1,000 innings since 1950, the spreads are much tighter":
1) regression toward the mean - the spread among pitchers over a single season (150-250 innings) will be greater than among pitchers over more than 1000 innings
2)Selection bias - pitchers with substantial careers are more likely to be consistently decent. Because of the gopher ball factor, a fly ball pitcher is more likely to put up horrendous numbers in the short to medium term that will push him out of the majors than a ground ball pitcher. note than the ground ball percentages in the top deciles for the career pitchers are similar to 2015 but that the lower deciles are much higher.
It might be worth mentioning that Strasburg is pitching against Kershaw.
You don't explain what the batting order simulation has to do with identifying players for a fantasy team. It's not uncommon for dissertations to include a number of projects that are only loosely related. Perhaps that's what is going on here.
Zimmerman is not going anywhere
The problem with the cardinals giving up a lot for Cain is that they'll never catch the Cubs and it's crazy to give away the store for a better shot at a Wild Card slot.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70917">Trea Turner</a></span> is already back in AAA after <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ryan+Zimmerman">Ryan Zimmerman</a></span> got back from paternity leave. I think the Nationals are afraid that he will strike out too much against MLB pitching to take advantage of his speed (the source of his <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and extra-base hits)and that Espinosa is a better glove with power.
Related to the first question: if a hitter is doing well in a high altitude environment, could that have something to do with seeing substandard breaking balls?
I think that's Chris showing a little too much favoritism.
What about the fact that umpires are calling lower strikes? Could batters be catching up over the season with what the umps are doing?
Re: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105603">Skye Bolt</a></span>, I have trouble seeing how a player with a 40 hit tool and 30 power is a likely major league regular even as a plus defender with an 80 grade name. Could you list some current major leaguers with similar grades?
Yes, that's right.
The "incentive" only works if you're sure the other team is going to hit one of your batters before your pitcher hits another of theirs.If my pitcher hits a batter, if one of my batters is hit next, he gets two bases but if my pitcher hits a second batter before the other team's pitcher does, then it costs him two bases
Crazy suggestion to stop "retaliatory" HBPs:
Every time a player is hit by either side, the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HBP</span></a> penalty goes up by one base. perhaps you could exempt minor HBPs (on the uniform or glancing of the hand or arm)where the ball does not bounce and the catcher can field the ball hitting the dirt.
You are making a big assumption here that on average hitters will have the same <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> with RISP as without. I don't think that's true. Pitchers will change their approach w/RISP. For example they may be focusing more on getting a strikeout rather than pitching to contact.
The Iglesias home run pitch was not on the outside corner - it was up and in and outside the strike zone that h turned on. I don't think Iglesias is capable of pulling an outside pitch into the left field stands just inside the foul pole.
Instead of trying to define an intentional walk, how about applying a penalty for all four pitch walks - all runners advance one base, whether or not they are forced.
It may not be dispositive but the most obvious example of more hits vs. less power is bunting against the shift. Any idea of how much of what you've observed is due to bunting?
He meant American League EAST champions - the Blue Jays
I noticed the Storm Front thing before I saw the twitter handle. It made me wonder if the White Power guys were starting a campaign to bring back the color line in baseball.
Since you don't do WYNTK on weekends why don't you add the weekend to What to Watch?
Have to disagree about batter strikeouts for reasons analogous but opposite to your explanation for there being one seven hit game. For a batter to get 6 strikeouts in a nine-inning game, the other eight positions would need to produce no more than 21 outs in a minimum of 40 plate appearances (<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> at least .475). If everyone else is doing so well it's hard to conceive of one player, especially high in the batting order, doing so poorly.
How does <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45397">Melky Cabrera</a></span> get an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RBI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RBI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RBI</span></a> on a wild pitch?
It might be worth mentioning that there were a total of 18 strikeouts of Twins on Saturday plus twenty more in the 16 inning game on Sunday. That has to be some kind of record for two consecutive games
Possible explanation for Brito move:
Dbacks think Brito is unlikely to outperform Owings by much in the short run and could benefit from more time in the minors.
Maybe not the right move but fairly rational
Zunino "arguably the most interesting name on a roster that largely lacks upside."
I would argue that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=27600">Boog Powell</a></span> is the most interesting <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=NAME" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('NAME'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">NAME</span></a> on the roster, particularly since he's practically the opposite kind of player compared to his namesake. :-)
In a similar vein, It's also worth mentioning that Weaver would pencil in <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Steve+Stone">Steve Stone</a></span> or some other pitcher certain not to pitch that day as DH and then pinch hit for him with the true DH when that slot first came to bat in order for Weaver to leave his options open until the last possible moment.
Maybe it's a new shift: four outfielders and three infielders. At Coors it could work :-)
Some useful catcher skills are still missing from theseassessments:
1. Bunts - Throwing out runners (and batters). Could there be meaningful skill differences?
2. Fielding throws and placing tags (and blocking the plate) for plays at the plate. These are not very common but they are high leverage.
3. Holding on to foul tips for strike three and fielding pop-ups
I think that's a poor analogy. You are confusing the neighbor (the Reds) with the thief. What has been stolen here? A better analogy is that your neighbor's bicycle has been damaged by his kid. He doesn't want to be bothered with fixing it or putting up an effort to sell it so you offer him a discounted price of $20 which he is happy to take under the circumstances.
There has to be some question as to where Murphy fits in positionally; he was originally a 3B. How does he compare to Rendon at either position? Rendon is better at either but at which is Murphy less worse? I also suppose you could argue Rendon is less likely to get hurt at 3B than 2B but I don't think there's much evidence for that.
"... right when you think their prediction for perceived boneheads"
I think you mean "predilection"
How many fingers does this Urbina have?
"the baseball future looks bright on either end of I-90"
I-90 runs from Chicago to Boston. I think you met I-80, although neither I-80 or I-90 END in Chicago.
What about a control group: match each one with another pitcher in the first three years of his career who produced roughly the same DRA- in the same season but with no (or one?) Game Score better than 75?
"The Rangers staved off elimination on Sunday night"
C'mon, they didn't exactly give the game away. :-)
"Blue Jays vs. Estrada" and
"Rangers vs. Perez"
So it's a question of which starting pitcher hurts their team the most? :-)
MGL, your adjustments are great for explaining platoon splits for individual pitchers but I don't see how it could explain an increase in reverses splits for RHP across baseball. That would require a different explanation and increased RHP effectiveness vs. LHB due to the shift seems like a good one.
It can't be the last Hit List if it only includes 161 games.
"when the opposition PUTS THE BALL IN PLAY"
He's talking about fly balls, not strikeouts.
You omitted the most obvious factor - strikeouts - not allowing (fair ball) contact at all
Concussions are not all "horrible", at least in relative terms.Most concussions end in full recovery in a week or two. If we are talking about the kind of concussions that lead to permanent cognitive impairment, that's another matter. Concussions are a particular problem in football because they tend to be more severe and more likely to be repeated.
Would it be possible to see a scatter plot of pulled groundball rate vs. shift percentage?
Is there a correlation?
Who are the outliers?
One thing that isn't considered here is that <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/TINSTAAPP/">TINSTAAPP</a> has impacted the Top 101, that a pitcher has to be more special than a position player to be considered a top prospect. Pitchers make up nearly 50% of the roster but what % of the top 101 are pitchers?
September may be different from the rest of the season but so is late July/August with all the deadline trades. They're not the same teams then either.
What is the point of these promotions so close to the end of the minor league season?
The Nationals/Padres game is at 7:05 pm
"...many that I’ve spoken with make the AL West scout seem like a regular stat-head comparatively. Those are few..."
So are there many or few?
This is all very interesting and perceptive but how does it really compare to the alternatives. Montero and Coghlan batting ninth may be OK (if you can accept Montero as a "leadoff" hitter) but they are both losing playing time to Schwarber. Otherwise the question is whether Russell is better off hitting ninth or eighth (with the pitcher ninth). Eighth wouldn't be much better in terms of facing the SP for the 3rd or 4th time and gives up the advantages that Maddon sees.
Putting two hitters with high <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ISO" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ISO'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ISO</span></a> next to each other in a lineup may also have negative synergies. Back-to-back extra base hits are often wasteful.
How did you get a count of Quick Pitches for Cueto? It's not something tracked in PitchFX, is it>
Sale is pitching tonght not tomorrow
Could shifting not work as well in the minor leagues because hitters have less of a track record and are developing as hitters so are less likely to show any consistency?
With all the raves about the Cubs farm system, Myrtle Beach seems an uninspiring bunch.
Gomez ".278 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> remains above average and one of the top 10 marks for qualified center fielders. He’ll be a massive upgrade over... and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46522">Colby Rasmus</a></span>, who only has a .236/.304/.459 slash line."
Rasmus's slash line translates to a .277 TAv and he's a pretty good defender.
Gomez may be a "massive upgrade" but your argument isn't backed up by the facts you present
Your recommendation to watch the Padres and Mets was posted when the game was almost over.
It would appear that there is not a single 1B prospect in baseball with an OFP greater than 60. Is that typical? Who was the last 1B prosprct to look better than that?
"ceremoniously slipped on a Royals jersey"
Why do they do that? It's only a matter of time before someone gets injured :-)
Ulysses's Last Stand by Led Zeppelin
"It was the first time that such a game has ever been decided by an American League pitcher."
That doesn't seem right. Are you just counting the DH era?
It's interesting that Judge and Conforto ended up so close. I don't think I've seen much analysis of a direct comparison of the two.
Could the reason for Sale's "regression" vs. LHB be selection bias? Perhaps the only LHB that face him now are those that do pretty well vs. LHP. How has the LHB/RHB ratio changed over time?
I agree. It's not (just?) that pitchers are better but that they're being used better - not to mention defensive shifting.
The problem with this discussion is that it's generic: you can always argue that it's better to have a good shortstop prospect than a good RF prospect. But every SS prospect isn't better than every RF prospect. How good would Judge have to be to be better than Mondesi? Why is Mazara ranked higher than Mondesi but Judge is not?
To stand up for Desmond a little, he made a terrific play on Saturday, fielding a ground ball then tagging out <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31340">Gregor Blanco</a></span> as he rounded third, rather than throwing to first
Why would the Phillies insist on Gallo from the Rangers when they have Franco. They could accommodate both but getting other good Ranger prospects instead doesn't make Gallo seem like a deal-breaker
A exciting "night" in Florida? beginning at noon?
If <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104814">Alex Jackson</a></span>'s bat isn't so advanced, is it too late for him to move back to catcher?
No mention of Strasburg's return (to form)?
How does it make strategic sense for Oakland to take White in the second round and Chalmers in the third rather than the other way around?
One thing you didn't mention is that Martinez has both a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> and a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FIP</span></a> of 4.12, which would suggest he's getting a lot of help from his fielders.
With Sisco's arm, why is he a candidate for LF but not RF?
Are you comparing 2015 to prior full seasons or just through the first two months?
Spme mention should be made of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1526">Mark Buehrle</a></span>'s 94-pitch shut out of the Nats in 2:10 where he threw nine balls through the first four innings and made a really nice defensive play.
It's "row to hoe" not "road"
You can't come back from an 5-4 deficit to win 8-4. Try 8-5.
Would a bullpen stint be a good idea (perhaps when Fister gets back) until he gets feel back on his curve and change? He could throw the fastball a little harder and the other pitches a little less often while still getting a chance to work on them 4 days a week
Did the San Andreas fault finally explode?Since when is Arizona on the West COAST?
No one earned Pitcher of the Day? Not even Bridwell?
Russell, given your pseudonym, I thought it was a slice of pizza.
Shouldn't O'Brien's "stolen base" have been scored as defensive indifference?
If this really is a strategy than it should fit in with going to a four-man rotation. Might we see some evidence for that?
Great story. Any chance of him playing post-HS?
It may be lazy, but <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66964">Sean Coyle</a></span> certainly sounds like Pedroia on a bad day
"Greene will look to get back on track against the White Sox, who is coming off a rough eight-run outing of his own against the Orioles"
the White Sox and who???
Kudos for the Gay Talese / Frank Sinatra reference.
Sorry, misread the sentence.
Wouldn't be <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=22091">Terry Francona</a></span> deciding it was not TJ House's day?
I'm not criticizing you for having a difference of opinion, It's just that the difference should be explained so we know the difference between you being the "low man" and something changing. It also seems that if a variety of qualified people on staff have different opinions that limiting the writeup in "The Call-up" to one opinion (plus fantasy) seems arbitrary, especially if yours is a bit of an outlier.
The scouting report doesn't sound like No. 30 on the top prospects list. Has something changed?
On Tuesday, Desmond made one of the greatest deep into the hole behind third base and perfect throw with momentum in the opposite direction I have ever seen. You have to have a guy like that play SS.
" but he was kept on ice while the Reds knocked consecutive hits"
I think you mean Cards, not Reds
Being in Unfiltered, I know it's just for fun but the best comparison would be comparing the after <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IBB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IBB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IBB</span></a> appearances to other appearances with the same bases occupied and number of outs.
Could the drop in PH leverage be a league-specific thing? More pitcher turnover is going to mean more PH opportunities in the NL but not the AL. Low leverage also makes a specialized PH less valuable.
That is absolutely the first time I've seen Minoso spelled or pronounced with the en-ye (ñ) and that's going back at least 50 years!
That's probably a misprint for Vinagrette
What the hell is a vengrette? I can't find it on Google or in a Dictionary.
Shouldn't the date for Yelich be 3/18/15?
Insanely good article. Should be up for an award
"No one is ever going to score"
1) Lower the mound and/or
2) Shrink the strike zone and/or
3) Bring in the fences
Not a hard problem to solve.
You made a goof in your example above:
"Option B, a 90% chance at a $120 return and a 5% chance at a $60 return"
That only adds up to 95%. How about:
Option B, a 90% chance at a $120 return and a 10% chance at a $30 return
BTW, another way to describe loss aversion is that the Phillies are trying to postpone regret: they will be unsatisfied with whatever return they're likely to get so they postpone it as long as possible to maintain the thin hope that they get lucky.
I think you're exaggerating fan pessimism about the Rays because they have a low Affect Rating but a high Affect Ratio.
"Bryton has a real chance to play in the major leagues in 2015"
Great story but your guy's got big control problems so it seems there's a lot of work to do before he's a legit major leaguer
Last year dearly departed Jason also provided the list broken down by Position, Organization, Age, and Tools.
Any chance of seeing that?
The Mo’ne Davis comment is wonderful!
"Warren Spahn, perhaps the greatest lefty of all time (at least until Randy Johnson came along)"
"Sandy Koufax's peak was so dominant in that narrow timeframe that he is on the short list for best pitcher of all time."
But not the best lefty? :)
and let's not forget Lefty Grove whose raw numbers need correction for era.
What are the averages of the deltas?
Are the distributions symmetrical or skewed?
Also you say "he’ll undoubtedly log major-league innings this year" but give his ETA as 2016
" Wisler played the entirety of his 2014 season as a 21-year-old in Triple-A.."
What about the 30 IP at Double-A you have listed for him?
One theory about teams being more willing to give up a pick because they have other first-round or supplemental picks: it may be a problem to have gaps in top talent flow over time. If you don't have any first round picks and next year's pick or last year's pick (or both) turn out to be busts, you could be in trouble.
Another theory: budgetary limits make it suboptimal to have multiple first-round picks. Teams may not be willing or able to pay for two true first-rounders in a given year so giving up one of two picks is less of a loss than giving up your only first round pick
I think Jeff's trying to say that if Scherzer is worth $150 million, teams should be willing to pay him $142 million because of the draft pick.
Sam, what happened to a Cespedes- Porcello TA?
Why does Severino, the more advanced player with the same floor but a higher ceiling, rank behind Judge?
It looks like Pepen misread "Clubs" as "Cubs" off of the Passan tweet, given that it came 6 min. later. You can't retweet if you're translating into Spanish.
John Davis pitched in 1988, not 1998
You have Chavis's DOB as 2014
Since your "Swing" and "take" values are per pitch, for the combined value wouldn't be more representative to give the weighted average (swing*# of swings + take*# of takes)/# of pitches? This would avoid giving excessive value to the infrequent takes of Hamilton and Sandoval.
Washington's first baseman is likely going to be Ryan Zimmerman.
The clown wig is a nice image but couldn't just as easily be things like resting players and getting good matchups?
Showalter used Meek as his primary set up guy because the Bible says, "The Meek shall inherit the Eighth."
Re baserunning: "doesn't make mistakes and good fundamentals; gets a good jump; still can score from second base on a single."
Doesn't that merit at last a 25?
Is there a tally from last year? how many you got right vs. Randy
"Story has an interesting skill set, but it’s ultimately a major-league one in my mind."
Didn't you mean "NOT a major-league one"
There's a similar issue with the college football BCS. If only two teams are selected, there's a pretty good chance that the 3rd or 4th ranked team that misses out is in reality more deserving than either of the two teams selected. If you go to an 8-team playoff, there's little chance that the 9th or 10th ranked team is more deserving than all of the 8 that were selected
How does losing a client compare with the other kinds of failure: not getting a client you want or not getting your clients signed with teams or signed on good terms?
You attribute the increased dispersion in your distribution to umpires having bad days. Since the zones are not umpire-specific, couldn't the dispersion be a reflection not of bad days but of bad umpires?
RE: the decision to pull Zimmermann. He missed badly on the last pitches to Panik. That may have been a sign of fatigue or, more likely, trying too hard, increasing the chance he might leave a cookie to Posey or Sandoval. Storen would have seemed the better bet to efficiently get the last out.
You have Belt and Ishikawa both at 1B
Fister just fists - I mean bats- left-handed.
The biggest difference between Lohse and these other guys is that Lohse has been consistently mediocre and these other guys have varied between good and replacement level. You can never win a championship if everyone on the team is mediocre; someone has to be good.
The real anomaly was Meek pitching in the ninth. Everyone knows:
"The Meek shall inherit the eighth"
Spoils and the Spoiled Spoilers who Spoil them!
Was it Barmes or Mercer that made the great play at shortstop?
Just beautifully explained and reasoned
In terms of variability among players, isn't 60 or 90 balls per season of difference the equivalent of 100 or 150 points of OBA for players that have 600 plate appearances? It would seem we're in the same range of difference between the best and the worst.
Was the Braves comment a reference to the Dutch buying Manhattan from the Indians?
Does Chavis have a defensive home?
There used to be graphs that tracked the trend in teams' playoff odds over the season. Is that still available? If not, could it be?
Also, wouldn't it make sense to predict a counting stat such as total Runs allowed (better than replacement level) when you use a cumulative stat such as WARP to predict?
Why did you use ERA instead of RA? Doesn't the removal of unearned runs confound the results?
It was 6-1 Twins buta five-run top of the fifth that made it 6-5"?
It's not so hard to steal a base if you're 0 for 4. You can reach on a fielder's choice, an error, a wild pitch on strike 3 or an early pinch running substitution.
I can't see how Todd Frazier could have thrown out Heisey :). I think it was Adam La Roche
How about Grant Ball Four as a bad name for a pitcher?
Aside from the fantasy write-up, there's no mention of Solarte and what, if anything, he brings to the Padres
The Nats only scored five runs int he first inning, not eight.
It's nice that the BP crew wants to get to the stadium 3 hrs early but the Orioles and A's game on Saturday starts at 9pm Eastern, 6pm Pacific
"the Pirates jumped out to a 4–0 lead, only to have the Pirates (???) storm back with five unanswered runs"
How does $1100 a month net only $400? If the checks are semi-monthly then $550 => $400 makes more sense. That would mean about $500 a month to live on after housing. Still a pittance but conceivable
These redrafts looks ripe for an analysis of how each team performed in the draft: which team's choices moved up and which moved down (and by how much). Summarizing over all the redrafts would be interesting too.
In the Dwight Smith entry you talk about "Stewart". Is there a mix-up?
How about the platooning possibilities? Espinosa hits lefties better and Span hits righties better. There's also defensive platooning: play Span when the Nats use FB pitchers and Espinosa when they use GB pitchers.
In fairness to Nelson Cruz, a bigger lead might have tipped off his intentions
What's keeping Giolito out of High A?
You don't "burn" a catcher by bringing him in to pitch because he can switch to catching if he's needed.
Has Kim Ng dropped off the radar?
If Anderson has an outside chance of sticking at shortstop, doesn't that alter the equation?
In terms of first basemen having good nights how about Adam LaRoche? Two for 3 with a walk and a 3 run HR that supplied all the game's scoring.
Looks like Tucker & CJ are at least 95% in agreement.
Some "debate" :)
Any XBH for Schwarber?
It's not clear what the table is referring to.
There's a big difference between throwing a bat at someone and swinging it at someone, the latter is probably criminal while the former is almost symbolic, a threat more than an assault.
is there a way to calculate the ratio of swing distance to zone distance and follow that over time?
Thursday NIGHT in the Bronx, one of the American League’s premier arms is set to square off...
The game's at 1 pm
I noticed that one of Hamilton's runs was scored without putting a batted ball in play. Call that a "Super Hamilrun". Any chance of getting a count of those?
I recognize the need to be arbitrary for simplicity's sake but making 70 games into a "magic" number confuses more than it helps. as your graph shows, there's no special inflection point. what we want is a regression factor. Tom Tango did some work on W?L records that suggested, probably not coincidentally, that 69 games was a good basis for a prior, i.e., add a teams current record to 34.5 wins and 34.5 losses (or, alternatively prorate their PECOTA or some other preseason predicted winning percentage to 69 games) and you have a good predictor of their future winning percentage. Similarly you could start with a run differential per game of zero (or the PECOTA predicted season run differential times 70/162)and add the actual run differential to it, then divide by 70 plus the number of games played. For the A's, their current +49 run/32 games differential would regress to 49/102 (or 57/102 if PECOTA is used)
You gave Alex Meyer back to the Nationals
Nick Williams - why wouldn't a "fringe average" arm play in LF?
I think I see an error: The Nationals' projection is below both its current runs scored and PECOTA.
There has been some prior work that suggests that if you pro-rate the PECOTA winning percentage to 69 games and add a team's current record to the PECTA 69 game record, that it will be close to the best predictor of the team's record going forward. That might serve as a good check on what you have done.
If there were such a thing as a repeatable DP skill for pitchers, imagine what an impact that would have if Perez were in the bullpen - coming in high leverage situations man on 1st, <2 outs.
Another consideration may be more foul balls since they take time for the ball to be recovered or go out of play and there is usually a new baseball after a foul that may require rubbing.
On all of Jones's subsequent at-bats, the shift was much less pronounced
Didn't Tuffy Rhodes set a HR record in Japan?
Did you look at interactions: BMIxage? BMIxPrevInj?
If throwing four balls for an IBB is a problem for a pitcher, why not have the catcher or shortstop or some other player on the field switch places and do the dirty work?
Another data point is Joel Peralta, who was released by the Nationals despite good numbers, picked up by the Rays and busted for a foreign substance on his glove the next time the Rays played the Nationals.
"PECOTA projects Goins for a .280 TAv and .228 TAv,"
You might want to check that.
Doug, have you seen any video from this spring that would indicate whether Strasburg has improved his mechanics?
What if you're a season ticket holder & already have a game ticket?
Did you mean pitches "for the pitcher" rather than "for the hitter"?
How much does a prospect's fastball create context for evaluation of his change up?
The real test is if R.J.'s ranking correlate better with performance than what the players are being paid.
Is there a plausible scenario where Cole ends up profiling best as an ace reliever rather than a 3/4starter?
Both Bonds and Ramirez were jerks but they both worked very hard to improve their game, PEDS aside. So not such bad makeup?
I would give Manny a 20 for hair-style :)
Is there any correlation between stability of swing rate and time in the league? For a rookie like Gregorius it would seem that pitchers would be trying different things, some of which would promote swinging and others that wouldn't.
Russell, did you account for multiplicity? How often would a player's preceding 100 pitches be more predictive than the swing rate for the previous 1000 just by chance?
How do allocate credit for sequencing between the catcher and pitcher?
You didn't say whether you included an interaction term. Perhaps I wasn't clear. You should either have a model with entropy and number of pitches and their interaction.
The negative interaction for the entropy components is the result of how evenness is calculated (entropy/number of pitches) - for a given degree of entropy evenness is inversely related to the number of pitches. Try the regression again using entropy instead of evenness or use the logarithms of evenness and number of pitches to avoid the artifact.
A player might be able to function as a one-day "mercenary" if he had a specialized skill. The idea of a hitter who "owns" a particular pitcher (although pretty much discredited) might be signed to play against that pitcher. Maybe someone who figured out how to hit a knuckleball.
"...acquiring Ryan Hanigan from the Rays"
I think you meant REDS
"...a power display to help them eliminate Cubs on Wednesday night"
If you haven't won the World Series in over 100 years, it's not too surprising to have the same luck in the Caribbean.
Wish List for future articles:
1. Show the ranks for the players on this year's Top 101 list
2. PECOTA comps when available
I think this is the most profound thing you've written since coming to BP. Did the historical review prompt your thinking on this?
Why call Hanson "a right-side defensive profile" when you mean 2B? There's little chance he ends up at 1B, right?
It's strange to see(and Rivera) move up so far in the rankings from last year with such lackluster offensive showings. Did fielding improve that much or did the space in front of them in the rankings empty out?
One problem is that you're also penalizing/rewarding the pitcher/batter statistically for getting an easier walk/strikeout. It also matters when in the count it occurs. Ball one matters less than ball four.
"I do not now, nor will I ever, know who actually used steroids."
"Know EVERYONE who used steroids" would be more accurate. We do, after all, have confessions and/or unequivocally positive tests from some players.
The HR comparison is no better statistically (2% vs. 3%), the p-value is 0.78. Espinosa suffered from a low BABIP (.225 from .313) combined w/ a drop in walk rate. With power mostly intact, the low BABIP may have been luck-driven but possibly it caused Espinosa to lose patience.
The "most recent" links appear to be to the 2012 team listings, not the 2013
Another way to think about this is that WPA is not a good predictor of future WPA. The best predictor of future WPA is something like FIP or FRA combined with the predicted leverage role, the latter being under team control.
There's no real difference between 12 extra-base hits in 167 plate appearances (7%) and 56 of them in 658 (8%) - the p-value is 0.64. Also you can't compare FRAAs because of playing time; FRAA per 162 games would be much closer.
Regarding #7, it might be true because the argument for why it's weak makes a big assumption that the SB attempt will always be successful. The opposing manager doesn't order the IBB w/a runner on 1st because the SB could fail.
How much did the Angels pay out in salaries?
If Crick is a "frontline starter in the making", why doesn't he have a #1 starter upside?
"One minor benefit is that teams in the National League would have the ability to squeeze out one extra plate appearance from a “real” hitter, rather than a pinch hitter."
Didn't you mean "pitcher" not "pinch hitter"?
Care to put a grade on Bradley's speed or baserunning?
The preference for a five MAN rotation rather than a five DAY rotation is telling. It says that the concern is not with the training and prep for pitchers but more simply devotion to the idea that all five pitchers should be treated close to equally. You seldom seem teams resetting their rotation after the ALL-Star break, for example. This is not followed in the playoffs. The issue is why do teams do things in the playoffs (pitching on three days rest, having starters relieve, skipping the #4 or #5 starter)that they don't do during the regular season. Rightly or wrongly, there is a perception of risk that is probably phony but it is easier to avoid criticism for doing "risky" things in the playoffs than in the regular season, even though the greater number of opportunities during the regular season probably means the potential advantage is as great or greater than in the playoffs.
The better way to measure off-season move impact is not the absolute change in probability of winning but the odds ratio (or log odds ratio). The Marlins moving from 200-1 to 100-1 is equivalent to last year's Dodgers going from 18-1 to 9-1. The Mariners also made a substantial improvement while the Rays and Indians made substantial moves backwards.
Isn't there something peculiar about the hazard function having a negative coefficient for number of pitches so that a 60 pitch outing is worse than a 120 pitch outing? If I'm not misinterpreting this, it would seem that you are identifying starts where the injury has already occurred, not predicting a subsequent injury as a consequence of the short-rest start.
One advantage, I would think, of a 4 man rotation would be a larger bullpen that would allow shorter outings for the starter - bringing in a mop-up guy if there's a big lead and the high-leverage guys if it's close.
Re: Ciuffo. Why does dual development increase risk? Wouldn't there be a hedging factor that he's unlikely to fizzle out both offensively and defensively, ending up either as a good defensive catcher w/ a passable bat or a good hitter w/enough athleticism to do a decent job at an infield or outfield corner?
If you weight the TAv in the first table by the matchup frequencies in the second table, you get an average TAV of .260 (league average). If you use the frequencies in the third (A's) table, you get .271. That's a huge advantage just from matchups!
Jeurys Familia didn't strike out every batter he faced, he walked one.
"Barmes will be relegated to a backup/defensive substitute role, but he’s likely to pick up some starts against right-handed HITTERS(?)"
Because of more balls pulled to the left side of the infield?
Or did you mean right-handed PITCHERS?
Another advantage to the four man rotation is that if the starters leave earlier, you have more relievers and relief options. The worst relievers in the bullpen are less of a problem than a 5th starter because the relievers can be relegated to low leverage situations allowing the better relievers to pitch with higher leverage.
NyQuil -he's a sleeper.
Does it mean anything that I read "Michael Baumann" as "Michele Bachmann"?
One intermediate step would be making the position shifts on an inning by inning basis rather than batter by batter. Less effective but less weird.
Corey Hart - most important reason for not making it on MVP ballot: WAS NOT THAT GOOD (20th in WARP). Yes, worse players do make the ballot but at this point we're in the land of random noise. No big surprise if Hart made it onto a ballot, not much of a surprise that he didn't.
MGL, can you verify that pitchers such as Kevin Brown and Bartolo Colon actually have shown a times through the order penalty rather than assuming that the group average applies to them?
One possible explanation for a lesser penalty for fourth time through for one-pitch pitchers may be an advantage from loss of velocity. The trick in hitting them is likely timing (rather than, say, picking up rotation) and a loss in velocity from fatigue on the fourth time through may throw that off.
Maybe they can bring back "Mighty" Morse
Don't you have to consider whether there are more pickoffs w/pinch runners because the defense is trying harder? This may not be fully captured by a simple yes/no as to whether the pitcher threw over to first. The number of throws and the quality of the move also matter. Even though you've limited your analysis to late and close situations, the leverage could still be higher with pinch runners.
In comparing the effect of number of pitches in the first at-bat, is it possible that the patient hitters have greater true talent, that they penalize themselves by taking too many pitches in the first at-bat but show their greater talent later on?
Does Ruiz have RF potential if he can't cut it at 3B?
The small size of the effect makes me suspect there may be a selection bias at work. In order to have a shutdown inning opportunity ("strict" definition), a pitcher has to be pitching well enough so that his team can score enough runs to tie or take the lead. this is more likely if he has n=been pitching better in the preceding innings. You may just be finding pitchers on their good days (healthy, well-rested, mechanics in good shape, etc.)
You screwed up the exponential notation. The exponents are negative so putting one over them turns them into large numbers.
"Fredi Gonzalez Leaves Craig Kimbrel in the Bullpen in Game Four of the 2013 ALDS"
Shouldn't it be NLDS?
The idea that once Kimbrel comes into the game to start the eighth, he still has to pitch the entire ninth is absurd. Even if he comes in in the eighth, he could pitch to one or two batters in the ninth. the next guy could enter with one or two out and no one on and have a relatively easy "save."
"best pure hitter I have ever scouted"
Did you ever see Bonds or Pujols at their best?
I think Sussman has you beat with his choice of McDonald
No ROY votes for Yan Gomes (tops in AL rookie WARP)?
The game's at 8pm Eastern
No TAv for McCutcheon
Both Andrew and Satchel describe the playoff as this afternoon instead of this evening
I get the "glue guy" rationale but why why would it be so important for Loria to override the GM? If Loria wants to micromanage so much why doesn't he make himself the GM and save the salary?
I found a little time to do this. The odds ratio for a hit following a hit as opposed to a hit following an out was 0.91 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.63 to 1.32 (p=0.62), which confirms the absence of significant streakiness.
A simpler way to do this would be a logistic regression where the predictor of outcome in a particular at bat is the result of the previous at bat.
I think you mean ceramic BRAKES, although many ceramics do break pretty easily
If Law throws 95 with good control and has a promising curve, doesn't that make a difference?
It's rounded to 100.0% so it could be 99.96% or something.
What organization is Gallagher with?
Standard deviation is a description of distribution. If the SD of a double is .456, we can estimate that 68% of doubles produced a change in run expectancy between .723 +/- .456.
Standard error (of the mean) is a description of the uncertainty as to what the true linear weights average value is, because we have a finite sample. It would be .456 divided by the square root of the number of doubles in the sample
Any surprises from the 2012 team?
Once again, as I commented on the previous article, Colin is calling "standard errors" what are really "standard deviations".
BRAA vs. RE24/boLI is a good (if irresolvable) discussion but the context here is the error bars Colin is attaching to BRAA/WARP.
Colin treats them as statistical (variation from random sampling) but they're not statistical. They're the result of intentionally deciding on a context neutral stat (linear weights) then changing his mind. In this case what the "error" term says is. "I'm giving you the linear weights value but if I wanted to give you the RE24 instead, it's likely to make a difference in a range of X runs, although I could have just gone ahead and given you the RE24 value."
Some "breakout" for Venable. Essentially the same WARP for the past four years. Trading walks and defense for power/
I think so, but I think you mean NIBBs not IBBs.
The high variances in 3Bs and NIBBs make sense. For a triple men on base, potential runs, are all converted into actual runs while if there was no one on base, particularly with two outs, the certainty of scoring is much less. In a similar way, the value of a walk is much higher if first base is occupied and much higher still if the bases are loaded. If first base is open with two outs, the value is much less.
I think there is some confusion about standard deviation and standard error here.
Standard deviation is a description of distribution. If the SD of a double is .456, we can estimate that 68% of doubles produced a change in run expectancy between .723 +/- .456.
Standard error (of the mean) is a description of the uncertainty as to what the true linear weights average value is, because we have a finite sample. It would be .456 divided by the square root of the number of doubles in the sample.
The Red Sox and Orioles aren't playing tonight
You got your physiology wrong.
There is a world of difference between cortisol, a corticosteroid, and the anabolic steroids implicated in the "steroid" scandal. Corticosteroids are legal and permissible when used under medical supervision and are not tested for, a large percentage of players are given oral or injected corticosteroids every year.
Technically, cortisol is secreted as part of the fight or flight reflex, but it is relatively slow acting, requiring hours if not days to show any significant effect. It does not stimulate the adrenal glands.it is secreted by the adrenal glands. If anything it has a negative feedback effect on the adrenals.
The bulk of the fight or flight reflex is due to epinephrine (adrenaline) secretion by the adrenal glands, although from a different part of the gland (the medulla)than the part that produces cortisol (cortex). It is epinephrine that redirects blood flow, increases heart rat, etc. It is the brain that stimulates the adrenal glands through direct neural stimulation not through hormones.
Yes, so the 9th was not scoreless.
Melancon did not pitch a scoreless ninth. Werth hit a two-run homer
"Detroit hitters took advantage of hittable pitches over the plate to light Danks up to the tune of 11 hits and SEVEN runs over seven innings."
How could that be when the final score was 6-2?
Ryan might be a good fit with the Tigers or Dodgers, where the regular SS wouldn't mind too much moving to 2B or 3B when the regular 2B or 3B have the day off or are injured and the net improvement in defense is likely to be substantial.
Interestingly, the differences between what Lind and Machado have done and what PECOTA predicted is largely due to BABIP.
Looks like Profar has matched his PECOTA pretty closely.
Is Latos the active player with the highest career WARP who has never been an All-Star? If not, who is?
Spreadsheets with percentiles would be nice. You could have separate spreadsheets for the 90th percentile, 70th percentile, etc.
"Indians trade Eduardo Perez to the MARINERS for Asdrubal Cabrera"
"The moral of the story: whatever you do, don’t trade FOR Doyle Alexander at the deadline."
The stats are a great addition. Any chance you could add CS to the hitters?
Also some of the starts (Chien-Ming Wang, etc.) don't really qualify as "Top".
Players strike out (AND WALK)less often when they’re protected, presumably because they’re NOT being pitched around.
They get more pitches to put into play when protected because the opposing team doesn't want him to walk and be on base for the good hitter batting behind him.
How could Mujica get a save if after giving up a HR he still has a 3 run lead?
It's supposed to be a straight average of the three Pythagorean winning percentages plus the ACTUAL winning percentage. But you're right. Look at Houston:the four win totals average 21.7 wins in 66 games. That should be a HLF on .328, not .356
Yeah, Odor really stunk.
My definition of a successfully checked swing is keeping the bat from moving over the plate. Is this reasonable? If so, could pitch f/x or something similar be rigged to detect this?
So which of these is different under SIT_RAA?
1. bases loaded, 0 outs - 543 DP, run scores
2. bases loaded, 0 outs - 523 DP, no runs
3. bases loaded, 1 out - 543 DP, no runs
Is there a good reason not to move Stephenson or Allie up to High-A?
It seems like there should be a relationship between SIT_RAA (and TAV) and RE24. What's the difference?
What about McCann after this season? He seems like the one guy that should challenge the Yanks' determination to keep their payroll under $189 million.
" If the Commissioner offered both clubs the chance to reverse the deal..."
Do we need the Commissioner for this to happen? Couldn't they repeat the trade in the opposite direction? Has either GM even entertained the thought? Probably not, but that may just be reluctance to admit a mistake.
You have Nolasco down as pitching for the White Sox
It's curious why Cotts wasn't able to have the conversation with Holman earlier, during spring training or last year. How many other pitchers are failing just because they haven't gotten the attention of the (right?) pitching coach?
Doesn't Castillo bat eighth. You'd think he'd have a higher walk rate just from hitting in front of the pitcher! maybe the opposing pitchers would rather plunk him than throw four balls for an intentional walk.
"All of the arguments for keeping the DH center around good feelings about some traditional notion ..."
Don't you mean "All of the arguments AGAINST the DH..."
Jayson Werth is not a Brave.
5 is an even number?
I doubt Kipnis had a meaningful OPS on April 1st. Did you mean May 1st?
Shouldn't it be "principAL changes" or are you changing the principles behind PECOTA?
"...the average batting average on grounders in the NL is down from .238 in 2012 to .230 in 2013, while the average in the AL is up from .238 to .240."
"which saw him carry a .239/.282/.343 triple-slash line into the Orioles’ second(?) game on April 20(?)"
Was that a doubleheader? The way it's written makes it sound like the Orioles had only played one game before April 20th (and how do you put up a .239/.282/.343 line in a single game.
So what beers are sold at Miller Park today?
I'd like to know the logic & economics behind having one team in Texas and the others in CT PA NJ & MD
Don't forget that pitching coaches may have input on which pitchers a team acquires.
0.1 win should be worth $600,000
0.25 win should be worth $1,500,000
"Vance Worley gave up three runs and eight hits in six innings in a loss to(?) the Twins".
to the Tigers, right?
Here's a thought about higher curve ball whiff rates at Coors:
Are hitters more likely to swing at a CB at Coors than at other parks? Perhaps hitters can recognize some of the curves that are likely to drop below the zone so they hold up. At Coors, fewer CB will drop that much so the batters will swing more, sometimes getting good contact at the cost of missing a little more often.
So what's replacement level? 45 wins?
Astros World: Astros 99-63 Angels 43-119
"if you assume a win will go for about 7.3 wins over Verlander’s age-32 through age-36 seasons"
Don't you mean $7.3 million?
IS Nicolino a left-handed RHP?
It may be a little simplistic but Rivera has the second highest career WPA of any pitcher, behind only Clemens. The rest of the top twelve goes: Johnson, Maddux, Martinez, Mussina, Smoltz, Halladay, Schilling, Hoffman, Gossage, Eckersley. Seems on its face to be a pretty fair ranking.
Could it be that Mantle is more of an "All-Time Tool" (personality-wise) than Bonds?
The Marlins also got a lot more WARP for a lot less money. Arguably the Red Sox could have gotten Lowell and Beckett equivalents on the free agent market for slightly more money and kept Ramirez and Sanchez.
It's not a book but the documentary, The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg, was well-researched and covered a lot of the important points about Greenberg's life.
Does the book talk about Moe Berg at all?
Could there be a selection bias due to age? Would high and low turnover teams tend to have (and add) players of different ages and, therefore, be on different points of the aging curve, biasing your predicted performance based on the preceding year?
"Sometimes information gets leaked to the media, but teams don’t typically send out press releases indicating they’ve put a TEAM on waivers."
The Nats have used Espinosa at SS when Desmond is out w/ Lombardozzi at 2B
There's another factor here related to 0-2 counts, especially with 2 outs. The batter's probability of an outcome that negates the value of a SB (walk, 3B or HR) is minimized. If there are 2 outs, a SB greatly increases the value of a single while a CS is partly compensated by resetting the count for the batter next inning. Here possibility of a pitchout is needed from a game theory standpoint, keeping the batting team honest, and the cost of a ball is minimized on an 0-2 count.
When you controlled for the first season's OBP, did you regress the change in OBP (as a dependent variable) against the first year (explanatory variable)? This will give a biased result. The correct way is to use the sum (or average) of the OBP for both years as the explanatory variable.
You probably know better, but I see this error all the time.
What about the near disappearance of professional baseball in Canada? There's the Jays, a short-season A team in Vancouver & two independent league teams.
But it's pronounced with the accent on the first syllable (KI-ke, rhymes with en-RI-que), right? And in Spanish you don't write an accent if the word end in a vowel (or s or n) and the accent is on the penultimate syllable.
Doesn't pulling the glove toward the body with rotation help take advantage of angular momentum? Like a skater pulling her arms in when spinning?
Bailey did not tear the ULNAR collateral ligament in his thumb. The ulnar collateral ligament attaches to the elbow.
"It's much less confounding when you account for the fairly obvious fact that there are just more left-handed pitchers to face."
There are more RIGHT-handed pitchers - right?
Who was the lowest in the 20th (or 21st)century before Francis?
It would be good to get a reminder of what level these players were playing during the regular season.
As an athlete, obviously he's all about Sports Manship
Yeah, it's a social science that requires a lot of quantitative chops. Ask Russell Carleton!
There's an error in the table. The 4-3 series add up to 22, not 16
If Odor has good range and a good arm, why isn't he a SS?
It's a little strange that there is more pitching to contact in DP situations because a SO is also desirable. Does the desire to avoid BB also play a role so the bases/out situation also matter (2B occupied? one vs. 0 out s)?
Walking Craig was the right call. Down five runs in the seventh, you can't allow any more - you need the DP. Plus Craig has been hitting like crazy.
He didn't grant a single Ball Four!
"[Pedroia] will be out for the last few days of the season. is undergoing further tests to see if he will return in 2012."
Return to what in 2012?
If you meant 2013, could a (not horribly) fractured left ring finger keep him out for the entire season?
Is Olivo's proportion of 4 pitch walks (45/152) unusually high? If so, could it be that pitchers think he'll swing at anything so why pitch in the zone?
The brwers didn't win the first two games of the Nats series. The nats won on Saturday, 10-4
Why was Raburn put on the 15-day DL when rosters have expanded?
It's the 89 mph fastball that didn't catch up w/Gomez. he swung early, pulling the ball
Aside from the likely non-linearity of age curves, I would question whether the model specification is correct. An econometric time series model without seasonality might be better where the outcome win% is explained by lagged variables for both win% and batter/pitcher ages.
This is the first time I've seen the 3B angle for looking at pitching mechanics and i found it much easier to understand what you are describing. What are the advantages/disadvantages of looking from that angle?
They arranged all this so Rauch could get a save. Plus all those holds!
I think sometimes a "stomach virus" is really a bad hangover. So maybe being away from home makes it more likely to be visiting the hotel bar and other watering holes.
"the only chink in Andrew McCutchen's AMOUR..."
You're writing about his love life? I hope you don't mean he's dating an Asian girl.
I don't understand how you are producing two different estimates of probable winning percentage going forward. Aren't the depth charts used to weigh the individual projections in order to find the team totals for components that are converted by linear weights into runs for/against?
Did you see Arcia bat against lefties? His stats show a big L/R split.
How about this as a solution for the HR Derby:
1. Eliminate the NL vs. AL aspect, just pick 8 hitters.
2. Have the home town team pick a player as captain to choose the 8 hitters. The captain could pick a substitute from any team if he was injured but the home town team could not have more than one of the eight spots.
Why isn't Jayson Werth the Nationals' best outfield upgrade?
What was the date?
Didn't the Cards win 5-4?
"Venters faced Kimbrel later in the same game"
I can see them facing each other, standing at opposite ends of the rubber, both going into their wind-ups, not knowing which one has the ball until it is released. But is that allowed?
The Sox could get a much better pitcher for Middlebrooks. Plenty of clubs need a long-term fix at 3B. Floyd or Peavy from the White Sox (who really need a third baseman), Greinke from the Brewers (who could move Ramirez to 1B), McCarthy from Oakland, Hamels from the Phillies, Hudson or Kennedy from the DBacks, Wandy from the Astros, Garza or Dempster from the Cubs. The Red Sox have other 3b prospects. Hanging on to Youkilis for another year should allow them to see what they have and open up salary room for a free agent if they don't look too promising.
The White Sox can wear red hats because it's all about the sox!
You say pitchers increase their fastball speed as they put opponents away. Could there be a selection bias? After all, if a pitcher is pitching badly and having a bad inning, he's less likely to have achieved one or two outs.
Also a nerdy question: what kind of computer and stats software do you use for these huge datasets and models?
It's a shame the kids in Chicago didn't go to a game at Comiskey. Someone could have told them about "A Pennant for the Kremlin"
Has the Minnesota event (June 30) been dropped?
Isn't it supination (turning the palm up - making a "supe" bowl) not pronation that occurs as the ball is released?
Your projection on Lindor made me think of JJ Hardy. Reasonable?
New writer off leash
Stephi Bee funny as hell
Keep up the good work
Today is Wednesday, December 14. December 15 was a Tuesday in 2009.
Didn't Santo retire 37 years ago?
Is it wrong to think that HOF voters have been biased toward positions (i.e., 3rd base vs. RF) and there ought be approximately the same number of HOF players at each position? If so, a more elegant solution would be to set the JAWS standard at the 15th (or 12th or 20th) best JAWS score at that position (regardless of whether the player is in the HOF, especially since the performance of ineligible or not yet eligible players is relevant to the discussion)?
If you add up the probabilities, the six Cardinal candidates add up to 101%, the five Red Sox candidates add up to 107% and the six Cub candidates add up to 117%! particularly since there is some chance that a successful candidate will not be on these lists, you're overstating things a bit.
How predictive is extreme failure against a pitcher: 0 for 15? 0 for 25?
It may also be better to define extreme failure or success as historical performance as a proportion of the expected log5 TAv. Or better still, calculate p-values for historical performance given expected performance.
Swing & Miss vs. foul tip to determine dropped third strike or passed ball/wild pitch
"Punto is a pest w/ a 0.388 OBP" so you raise that OBP to 1.000 w/ an intentyional walk? The more relevant stat is SLG: how likely is he to havwe an extra-base hit.
Did Varitek start catching Wakefield more in 2009?
Utility y Projection?
Are you already degenerating into Spanglish?
Could someone with better stuff learn Carl's delivery? Or would it just mess him up?
What kind of injury other than a concussion (or seizure) can cause unconsciousness that lasts several minutes? Conceivably, Hudson could have had a vasovagal reaction to hitting the wall but he should have been awake and able to move shortly after falling down and allowing blood to return to the head. Sometimes recovery from a concussion is so rapid that neurological testing is normal a short time after the incident.
When you mentioned James Baldwin, I thought of the writer and whether he was headed to the same level of obscurity as the pitcher.
You have "rays" twice on your chart. One should be "jays", right?
You are confusing endorphins with adrenaline/epinephrine!
Are you going to have minor league stats/ Translations?
"...although it is likely that some players have dealt with it over baseball’s long history without missing significant time..."
In fact, there are probably dozens of current players who are currently dealing with IBS w/o missing significant time. It's a common problem but it's usually not disabling, especially in young athletic people. Of greater concern is that it's a largely diagnosis of exclusion, which means after giving Gutierrez a careful look, they couldn't find another explanation. This does not mean there isn't another explanation, it just means that the docs didn't find it but it (IBD, Whipple's Disease) could well emerge in the future.
Ben. your description of Reggie Willits reminds me of Willie Harris in the first half of his career. Any chance Willits could take a similar turn, finding power in his 30's?
Also, I want to second Brian's comments about your writing.
You forgot another thing a pitcher should not do-
Mike- what about the observation that the zone for left-handed batters is shifted toward the outside. You don't addrfess this explicitly but it would seem that because all catchers are right-handed and wear their gloves on their left hand, that there would be a natural tendency to hold the glove a little left of center. Again consistent with your theory.
Something's wrong in the calculations. they generally show a smaller MOE for fielders who had fewer chances (Aubrey Huff, for example). What gives?
This won't help fans attending the game but I DVR games and start watching them 60-90 min later, skipping over mound visits and breaks between innings and hitters. I catch up to real time by the end. Is this sacrilege?
"The YANKEES have effectively been dormant for 35 of the 36 innings"???
The 1968 Mendozas and quality starts really shouldn't count, or at least have an asterisk.
I think Keith Woolner wrote an article a few years back on what he called "Super-Cycles", games with 4 hits totaling more than 10 total bases. A useful term, I think.
As an alternative method for estimating RBI, how about using linear weights values for each event in the simulation? It's not perfect but it could serve as a check on the method you're using.
Didn't Carlos May's exit from baseball have to do with accidentally shooting himself?
Why restict yourself to a single number? K and BB are two separate components of pitcher accomplishment. They can be inversely correlated (pitcher command) or positively correlated (pitching to contact). If you do a regression of ERA against BB/PA and K/PA as separate independent variables you will get a better fit (and more predictability) than you will by squeezing them into a ratio or difference.
Steinbrenner's comment about Mattingly being “The most unproductive .300 hitter in baseball” may well be true. Looking at his player card, Mattingly's (translated) batting average always exceeded his TAv by a considerable margin. Lifetime he has a .323 BA and a.291 TAv.
Manny Mota may have encountered considerable racism when he came to the US but he is wrong about the absence of racismin the Dominican Republic. Dominicans celebrate their independence not from Spain but from Haiti, because they did not want to share a country with former African slaves. In 1937, Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo initiated a campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against Haitians in the west of the country; Dominican troops slaughtered more than 20,000 people. This occurred only two years before Mota was born, so I doubt that the attitudes he encountered growing up in the DR in the 40's and 50's was much different.
Magglio over Boesch, Swisher over Gardner -both are having great seasions with much better track records.
Also, Braun and Manny should be starting in the OF and you left them of entirely.
"When a trapped ball is erroneously ruled a catch in the infield, the batter and each runner will be awarded one base unless the umpires feel likely that a player would have subsequently been forced out, in which case the play remains a catch."
This is the equivalent of forcing the lead runner, a likely outcome if runners hold in anticipation of a catch, even if the umpire on the field had correctly called it a trap. The overruled play should not remain a catch, however, because this means any runner "doubled-up" would still be out despite the trap.
Did the Mets miss an opportunity to DH Beltran when they were playing the O's, Yankees and Indians then sending him back to the DL to finish his rehab?
What about David Adams in Trenton - puttinhg up excellent numbers at age 23?
I think you may have a selection bias looking a pitcher performance in extra innings. For example, there will be an eleventh inning if there is no scoring in the tenth but there will be an eleventh only if the scoring in the tenth is the same for each team. (You can check this by looking at R/IP in the tenth inning when there is an eleventh inning vs. when there isn't one.) This selection bias, rather than "stopper" effectiveness, may be the reason for lower R/IP rates in extra innings.
Another reason for lower R/IP in the ninh inning or later is the "walk-off" effect. Home team run scoring is limited to overtaking the visitor's total.
Guillen Club members on average appear to be good athletes: good hitters who began MLB as average fielders on the tougher (right) side of the defensive spectrum, moving to the left side without too much difficulty as they aged.
Will, are you trying to make the point that there is a connection between low PAP levels and "The Year of the Pitcher"? Could teams be reaping the benefits of less stressed and better rested starters? After all, there doesn't seem to be a big change in relief pitcher effectiveness this year.
Re Bryan Holaday: Shouldn't taking Strasburg deep have more to do with ability to make contact than power? After all the problem with hitting Strasburg is making contact. If you manage that, it shouldn't be harder to take the ball deep than with any other pitcher.
I misread the title as
"Ever Make Love to Half a Farmer's Wife?"
Subject for another column?
For framing pitches, it might be better to define a strike zone for each catcher in the same way you would define zone for an umpire and compare catchers on the basis of the area of their strike zones. Giving credit on the basis of actual pitches that are called strikes (when they might have been called balls) introduces a bias by pitcher if the pitcher throws relatively many or few frameable pitches. The catcher strike zone area could also be corrected for the average strike zone area of the umpires he works with.
A better term might be "Most Profitable Player". Profit, rather than value, is also a term that usually (but not always) refers to current results. "Value" (although not as in MVP)implies future returns - who's worth the most net of contract going forward. The most profitable company doesn't always have the highest or fastest growing stock price.
Is this a result of global warming?
As awful as PECOTA looks, it must be less daunting than predicting the weather :)
If someone is a legit XX, then that person is someone who is biologically a woman
The problem with using the 75th percentile is that it's arbitrary. There's a sound theoretical reason for using the 50th pwercentile or weighted mean. If you show that the 75th percentile performs better than either of them, then you know there is a bias in the system. But you have no reason to believe that the 75th percentile is a better correction for the bias than, say, the 65th percventile or the 80th percentile unless you've tested all those possibilities
There also needs to be some acknowledgement about how poorly PECOTA performed last year. Was Nate too distracted by politics?
Batter indifference or pitcher indifference? Are pitchers more willing to throw inside because of the protective equipment? Pitchers have less fear of hurting someone while batters still need to overcome their natural instinct to dodge an inside pitch. Not to mention that the equipment make batters a larger target.
Will, did you publish an analysis of how the system did in 2009? % of red players on the DL & number of days, etc.? If so, could you link to it?
Any chance the HBP craze is because of the newfangled protective equipment?
Make more PECOTA information downloadable: percentiles as well as weighted means, handedness splits, MORP, outyear forecasts.
That would be worth an extra $3-$5
The expected values should probably be based upon the components of EqBRR for each runner that address advancing on hits and outs. The problem is that these are confounded by factors that also affect OBI%: whether a runner on second scores on a single has as much to do with the quality of the hit (line drive vs. infield slow roller) as the runner's skill in advancing.
I think the most interesting part of your article is showing how much more effective bullpen use has gotten. I hadn't seen WXRL/9 before and it seems to be a solid defense of large specialized bullpens and laRussian tactics. It seems like more can be done with this.
There's no PECOTA for wOBA
I suspect platoon splits play a role.
One problem with your analysis is that the distribution given by PECOTA is the distribution of possible outcomes over a season (it is based on the full season performance of comparables, including good or bad luck), not the distribution of uncertainty as to true ability. To update a projection of a prospect's performance going forward, you first estimate the variance about true ability by subtracting the "luck" component contained in the PECOTA (the binomial variance based on projected OBP and plate appearances) from the total variance in the projection. You then find the beta distribution that fits the remaining variance (it will have a larger alpha and beta) and use that as your prior distribution to be updated by actual performance.
By the way, if you want to consider offensive characteristics beyond OBP, use EqA instead. It's technically incorrect because it's not based on binary outcomes but in practice it makes very little difference: calculate the number of successes as EqA * PA and add it to alpha and add (1-EqA)*PA to beta.
Isn't the assumption being made that every batter begins to "pick up" the ball at the moment when it leaves any pitcher's hand (or a fixed small fraction of a second before or after)? It strikes me that this could vary among pitchers and batters as would the "perceived" velocities.
It makes sense to consider both K and GB as "good" things but giving them equal weight gets away from the situational idea - Ks and GBs are always good (that's why they both lower QERA), it's just that Gbs are particularly good in DP situations and you need a means yto pick that up. I suggest looking at how much a GB reduces run expectancy compared to a K in a DP situation and weighing accordingly.
Shouldn't the speed advantage on offense be measured as EqBRR rather than EqSBR? "Taking the extra base" certainly has value.
Maybe eighth place hitters in the NL should be excluded since they bat in front of the pitcher the first two or three times but usually not later and all positions are not equally likely to bat eighth.
Have you forgotten Tatis's backstory: onetime rising star capable of incredible feats (2 GS in one inning) falls into ignominy and substance abuse only to redeem himself in the end?
Don't the third order projections take league into account through EqA? If AL teams are stronger they should have better OppHEqA and OppPEqA.
Simulation would probably give a much more convincing answer
I'd like to see PECOTAs included to be able to compare actual to expected (including percentiles)
The best crack about Lutz would be using figure skating terms:
"He executed a double (2B)Lutz followed by a quadruple (HR) Lutz."
If I am reading this correctly, you are correcting a player's performance for the season so far by weighing in his performance is prior seaons (without taking career path into consideratio, i.e, it doesn't matter if he is closer to (or farther from) his expected peak now than in 2006)then projecting him to play at the level of his original PECOTA (translated) for the rest of the season. In other words, his performance so far this year doesn't change the estimate of his performance going forward. I can't see why this is the most logical approach. Wouldn't it make more sense to take his performance to date as is, translate his PECOTA for park and year and then adjust it to reflect actual performance this year relative to the projection and, finally, add the pro-rated results of the updated projection to his production so far?
Doesn't declaring the NFL a single entity make it more vulnerable to antitrust law? they don't have the MLB exemption so don't they have a pro football monopoly (assuming arena football and the CFL (and NCAA?) don't constitute adequate competition)?
Not to reopen the debate, but the chance of a "true" .318 hitter hitting .373 over half a season is pretty low (less than 4%)zs opposed to about 10% for a .332 hitter.
I think you underestimate Mauer's "true" level. If you take a Bayesian approach using his PECOTA as a prior, you get a "true" expectation based on his performance this year of a .332 batting average, which makes the probability of hitting .400 to be 0.135% or 1 in 740.
I found the article very readable but one thing threw me off stride: Did Leyland ask the umps to look at a replay of Cabrera's "home run"? That's an important detail. If he did, then the umps' refusal is a travesty. If he didn't then it's at least as much Leyland's fault.
Jon Garland:"...basically a league-average innings muncher who benefitted by reaching the majors in his age-20 season."
Sounds like Jim Kaat to me
This seems like a good case of "what's true isn't new and what's new isn't true".
Good writing style but, much like her previous article, her command of facts and what they mean is really weak. For example, giving any significance to Jake Fox going 2 for 3 after beiing called up, pleease!
You have Pimental down as a RH hitter nut in the video he's batting lefty
Then he's just being redundant by making graphs for both.
Too ambitious. Brittany's strengths are more like Perrotto's than Normandin's. It's clear she gets in over her head. Comparing Ortiz, Teixeira and Bartlett using G/F, etc. was a great idea but it failed in execution; the interpretations of the numbers are unconvincing, bordering on hand-waving.
Matthew is jumping through a lot of hoops to compare offensive output derived from OBP to offensive output derived from WHIP. Simple math shows them to be essentially the same thing: OBP=(H+BB)/(H+BB+OUTS)
WHIP = (H+BB)/(OUTS/3)
"...digging out of a hole just slightly more shallow than the Grand Canyon."
I think the problem with Littlefield and Bonifay was that they were trying to DIG themselves out of a HOLE". Perhaps Coonelly and Huntington should try CLIMBING?! :-)
I've been doing this myself by fitting a Beta distribution (different than the PECOTA "Beta") to the PECOTA distribution. Once that's done it's very easy to do a bayesian update for BA, OBA, SLG or EqA. For example, Andruw Jones's PECOTA EqA fits a Beta distribution with the parameters alpha=44.9 and beta=127.3. This year he has had 77 PA witha .349 EqA. To get the bayesian update you add 77*.349 to alpha and 77*(1-.349) to beta. The PECOTA goes from
10% 25% 40% 50% 60% 75% 90%
.153 .233 .253 .262 .273 .280 .296 TO
.252 .269 .280 .288 .295 .307 .325
for his performance going forward
One thing that tends to exaggerate any inequality is the "not playing yourself" factor. The Cubs' schedule advantage in the NL Central has mostly to do with them being so much better than anyone else in the division. that's a feature, not a bug. One way to remove this would be to construct a 30 x 30 table that compares two teams' schedules excluding their head to head games.
The issue could also be that pitchers hit ground balls on a larger percentage of their ABs than DHs so they make up a larger portion of the sample.
Instead of team strengths based are PECOTA weighted means, how about extending the simulations to include the probabilities of underachievement and overachievement and showing percentiles for team win totals?
I don\'t have any problem Tivo-ing a game to start watching it one hour after it starts and skip the commercials. Not to mention watching a recorded game when I get home after a night out or a West Coast night game the following day.
If Hosmer is athletic enough to be an above average first baseman with a fantastic arm, why isn\'t he a possible corner OF (or even 3B)? Wouldn\'t he be at least as viable as Adam Dunn?
What killed the dinosaurs?
That\'s the real question. At one point he could stay healthy enough to become a good player but he can\'t stay healthy now. What happened?
\"...there\'s no evidence that [Nick johson] can play baseball and stay healthy at the same time.\"
Seriously - how did he manage to become a professional baseball player? How did he acquire his considerable skills if he couldn\'t play?
I think he\'s a Royal(?) now
Why is Freeman repeating High-A? Is that a typo for this year?
Now that you have pitcher types, how about looking at pitch repertoire and platoon splits?
and 162 games is an EXTRA EXTRA long playoff series.
secret sauce isn\'t about the length of the series - it\'s about the quality of the two teams playing each other. When the teams are good, the Secret sauvce items matter more because good teams tend to neutralize other routes to winning.
Does Tabata go to AAA next year?