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So which active player does this model say is most like (or "the next") <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69172">Kyle Hendricks</a></span>?
What about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70387">Javier Baez</a></span>?
This is awesome, thanks! Where would you slot <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70972">A.J. Reed</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+DeLeon">Jose DeLeon</a></span>, and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103071">Francis Martes</a></span>? For those of us who play ESPN, they weren't in the player pool last year and will be drafted this year.
Adding to this:
ESPN also doesn't (yet) have Julio Urias, Tyler Glasnow, Hunter Harvey, Hunter Renfroe, Aaron Judge, Kohl Stewart, or D.J. Peterson in its player database. Assuming ESPN adds them for this year, where would they - and Frazier - rank in this list?
Thank you, Brett! This is fantastic! I mostly play in ESPN-hosted leagues, and many minor leaguers are not included in the ESPN player pool, so they aren't draft-eligible. A minor leaguer who has an unexpected breakout (like Alen Hanson last year) isn't added to the player pool - and thus the draft - until the following year. I expect there are others who play in ESPN leagues and are in the same boat.
So, where would you rank newly-ESPN-draft-eligible Gregory Polanco, Tyler Glasnow, CJ Edwards, and Henry Owens on this list? How about Michael Pineda?
Brett, are these ranking geared for Rotisserie leagues, Head to Head leagues, or both? I think the type of league affects Hamilton's value (i.e. I think his potential base stealing dominance matters more in Rotisserie scoring).
Jason, first of all, thank you for putting this together! You, Zach, and the others do terrific work here. BP is my favorite source for prospect-following.
I'm curious about Joc Pederson (currently slashing .294/.378/.500 with 11 HR's and 21 SB's). He's mashing in AA as a 21 year-old (showing that his Cal league numbers weren't a mirage), and playing an up the middle defensive position. Why isn't he ranked more highly? It seems like he should be somewhere around the Wong/Marisnick/Cecchini group.
Fantasy question: if you could have only one of Buxton, Correa, or Baez in your system, which would you choose?
I was surprised to not see Tyler Austin. Why don't you and/or your sources believe in his bat?
Kevin, is Cingrani's breaking ball THAT bad? Because it seems like with command of two plus pitches, he should be at the very least a solid #3. And on the upper end, didn't Rich Harden (pre-injury) and Cole Hamels (pre-Halladay teaching him the cutter) put up terrific numbers with the same plus fastball/plus changeup/nonexistent to mediocre breaking ball arsenal?
How about an article on Tim Beckham? We all lionize the Rays' front office, but this was a colossal blunder. Hell, 11 of the next 12 players selected - and 16 of the next 20 - have at least made the majors. How did a guy everyone saw as a 5 tool stud at a premium position turn into such a bust?
KG, what do you think of Tyler Thornburg? Looks like he has been called up to make a spot start for MIL (vs. TOR) today, before heading back down to take his first crack at AAA.
Here's what I read on CBSsports.com: "Though Cubs president Theo Epstein has said in the past that service time isn't an issue, it really does seem to be. Considering Rizzo's time spent in the majors last season for the Padres, 104 days of service time this year would start his free agency clock one year earlier than 103 days would (hat-tip ESPN Chicago). The Cubs' last game this season is Oct. 3, so my calculations say Friday, June 22 is when the Cubs can call him up -- assuming this is a consideration." KG, is that right?
Ironic? Why? Or did you just mean a crazy coincidence?