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EDog
3 comments | 1 total rating | 0.33 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/49337
EDog
(49337)
Comment rating: -1

Maybe he thought that by bunting with 2 strikes (and cattching Philly off-guard) he'd actually beat it out for a hit? Jeter is known to lay down bunts for hit attempts. If so, the decision is still a poor one, but somewhat more defensible.

Oct 30, 2009 12:43 PM on Some Guys We Missed
 
EDog
(49337)
Comment rating: 2

To me, this is exactly the right point. The difference between a 61% and 68% chance of scoring is material but not so outlandish as to make the bunt "stupid". Obviously, neither is the difference between 1.4 expected runs and 1.5. But here, you have Derek Jeter - great hitter, former WS MVP, future hall of famer - vs. Chan Ho Freaking Park! In Yankee Stadium with the crowd going nuts and 3 hits and 1 run already in ... if there is anything at all to situations, pressure, momentum, etc. it was ALL on the Yankees side. As a fan sitting in the stands, I can tell you the odds of scoring 2+ runs felt like 99%. Until he squared to bunt. And we all sat down and cursed. Girardi really needs to burn that book.

Oct 30, 2009 12:40 PM on Some Guys We Missed
 
EDog
(49337)
Comment rating: 0

Fomr some reason BJ Upton was originally in TT but them mysteriously disappeared