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Shouldn't several of the younger pitchers have a Yellow mark in the 15 day box - for a possible trips to he DL for cases of 'ineffectivitis'.
Will this be on the mid-term?
Not that anyone condones such things - but aren't we likely to see the first Cardinal pitch to Gomes fly past or plunk him in the hind quarters and then we all move on?
I notice you didn't feel the need to explain what happened to the Cubs. I guess you don't need to - with the assumption being the Cubs happened to the Cubs.
So why does the loss of Wainwright in STL, cause a drop in the Wild Card chances of everyone _else_ in the division?
If STL odds of winning move down a peg, doesn't that mean more wins for the remainder of the division? Each team has more games against a diminished Cards team than the rest of the NL.
Not even a mention of Ian Snell at all?
So we're saying that the 96 BP annual is now a collector's item.
Dang - I had one of those, a PECOTA page that projected 56 home runs for Yuniesky Betancourt, and a Will Carroll rookie card... but my mom threw them away when she cleaned the basement.
Just a nit pick -
Typo or Misplacement ... At the moment Cubs grade is a B+ but are ninth on your list positioned in a C+ slot.
I've heard of knocking a ball into next week - but Washington hit one past the Autumnal Equinox. DANG!
"Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, and Padres"
Is there a common thread there? Money teams - w/ Padres but no Red Sox? South/West teams - No D-Backs/Giants/A's?
Is there a database of these clauses? I'd be curious to see a list of the most often blocked teams in baseball.
What's the BA League Prospects tab? Are they last year's? Posey, Santana, Bumgardner?
Alerard Avilaird! While it's well written and a great point, could it be this article is just a thinnly veiled complaint that you can't have fun smashing names together like you used to? Ranth Mulliorg anyone?
Also I saw oh-screw-it-shoot-me-now-we're-so-done come up with Columbus. I thought he had potential ... or at least I was happy to see him leave Columbus for the big club.
OK perhaps I'm whining - but don't cryptquotes normally have the spaces in between words to help give you clues on the letters. Currently it's just a long string of captial letters. I mean with no spaces THAT IS a challange.. but still.
Granted the taxes are a real issue, but they've run with the big dawgs when they felt they 'had something'. It's just they haven't made the best decisions of how (Rios), who (Ryan), and who not (Doc) to pay. Their payroll yo-yos quite a bit and was north of 90 mil as recently as 2008.
Still I think paying for Pujols energizes a large market, would affect a large tv market (all of Ontario if not all of cananda) and possibly could be used as a building block in a pitch for a new stadium (see pujols, see the crowds, etc etc)
OK - is it lunatic to dream the Jays just freed up the money to become a player should Pujols hit the open market? The Jays will spend the money (see the Wells and Rios contracts to begin with) and there aren't many big money suitors left.
OK - so for Question 1 - I disagree and think the answer is A.
You send the rookie down til he clears the Super 2 hurdle. Then you hope for an injury or need on some other team to flip the veteran for some kind of answer to Question 2. (which is clearly a trick question to which there is no answer)
Has the 'collusion era' really ended?
I tried but failed - surely someone can find it...
Best I could do was two degress of seperation:
Shore -> Encino Man -> Brendon Fraser -> With Honors -> Joe Pesci -> Almost everything Scorsese ever did
Shore -> Son In Law -> Carla Gugino -> Rightous Kill -> Robert Deniro -> Everything Scorsese ever did
Traditionally your last paragraph sums up you JAWS based position by saying if he'd be on your ballot. It's missing here. Perhaps on purpose?
I've always thought the biggest problem with Trammell's candidacy for the Hall of Fame has been the 'Fame' part. I grew up in northern Ohio and Indiana. I was a Reds fan, went to Indians games, and was force fed the Cubs (thank you cable and WGN). But even in Fort Wayne, closer to Detroit (3 Hrs) than either Chicago or Cleveland, there was no Tigers coverage.
In the 80's, as a younger fan, if you asked me to rattle off great shortstops - I'd go straight to Ozzie, Ripken, and Larkin (Yount was an OF to me). I knew those names off the top of my head as a kid. Now I also knew 'of' Trammell, but only so far as he was a Tiger. And it would have never occurred to me that he might actually be Hall of Fame great.
The stats and arguments are certainly compelling, and now as a (theoretically) grown up fan I certainly agree his factual resume is over qualified for the Hall. I have some friends from Michigan who get very energized when Trammel’s HOF case is brought up. But other friends, from say Seattle or California, never have his name at their fingertips for any baseball question other than who has been snubbed by the Hall of Fame. Fair or not - it's the lack of subjective 'Fame' part that would keep me from putting Trammell on my fictional ballot.
Any early speculation as to Blanton's destination?
You need to open this one up as free content and make it part of your lure to subscribers.
So Akron (Indians AA affiliate) won the Eastern League last year and the Clippers won the AAA Governor's Cup and the one game AAA inter-league playoff this year. Akron's been good for a while, but this is the first time it's bubbled up to the AAA level. While the team does have a few interesing stand outs (goedert, kipnis,...), apart from Santana's meteroric rise it's just been a good team.
Does having a winning minor league team at all transfer to the major league club - or is it strictly all on the individuals involved? These guys have had alot of success at the minor league level. Should I be buying stock in Mike Sarbaugh's managerial career?
PS - I'm a Clippers season ticket owner and am complete agreement about how well they built the ballpark. Now that the first year euphoria has worn off - tickets are again available. While Katz's deli is great, if you were in German Village you should have found Schmidt's Sausage Haus or snagged a Thurman's burger. There, I just gave you two reasons to come back.
Who's picking up the mantle for the playoff injury analysis?
Thanks Will! You were fun to read, fun to listen to, and fun to drink with! Not sure how they'll fill the hole you leave behind.
HEY - it's a rotation of 3's and 4's - Thank You!
Has anyone done any pencil sketch stats on the effects of playing outdoors in Minny in October? Are they going to schedule any night games there? Would an indoor team (Rays) or southern team (Rays) be at a disadvantage? What are the track records of the possible pitching opponents in cold weather?
cut and paste disaster - sigh
Well, in your defense Joe, you weren't part of the article that raised my ire in the first place (or, at that time, even part of BP) : http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10451. Not one person could step out on a limb (even as a lark) and pick against the pack (Forget the Reds… no one picked the Cubs?)
And RedsManRick is better at writing critique than I. He gets a “Well said” out of me for what he said here and a major thumbs up for what you wrote after Perrotto preseason write up of the Reds included the Reds won’t win “because they never win anymore” (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10085 )
I guess the problem is mine - I'm a fan first. I love the stats and even enjoy trying to keep up when the site disguises itself as an advanced stats class. But I guess I’m getting burned out of years of this site giving me a myriad of mathematical reasons why my favorite team wasn’t good, isn’t good, and won’t be good. Now the Reds finally put a season together, and your blog post immediately sets up the “Why the Reds won’t win the playoffs” articles.
I get that BP is NOT supposed to be a fan-zine and it’s not your job to blow sunshine up my team’s ___. It’s a blog post not an article – so you’re just passing a thought along – and it’s a valid thought at that. . The Cards own the Reds and I’ve no answers about the sweeps in Philly (july) or Denver (sep). But calling us the V Tech of baseball – like we were ducking teams or sneaking in is a little harsh.
11 of the 32 losses you refer to were by one run (8 of those were on the road). They are 3-4 against the West leading Giants – including some ridiculous slugfests in San Fran as the Giants stated to make their push. They had a fluke loss after a near perfect game v the Phillies and are one of the few teams to at least *taste* success against Halladay (a win and a ND in the aforementioned Travis Wood game). They’ve yet to finish against the struggling Padres. AND - thanks to doing their work against the poorer teams – won’t have to worry about any possible match up with the Cardinals.
Am I betting the mortgage on another Reds title – no. But I don’t fear the playoff contenders despite the regular season results. Cueto/Wood/Arroyo gives us a rotation to keep us in it. And having one of the leagues best offenses, led by the league MVP, gives us better than a punchers chance. That’s not sneaking in.
P.S. – Like Perrotto fine, but his NL Central preview wasn’t his best.
P.P.S. – having said all this I am completely TERRIFIED I’ve jinxed my team.
((HR+BB+SO) / PA) * 100% = TTO %
(... in Agent007's defense the definition does not present the actual formula)
Well NO ONE on this website liked the Reds chances at the start of the season - and you all had well crafted statistics to back your choice of the Cardinals over everyone else. I wouldn't expect anyone here to back the Reds now, and I'm hoping your precognition is just as accurate.
I agree - his chances of getting voted into the hall by the 'writers' are entirely dependent on if he plays for a team writers pay attention to: NYY, Bos, LAA, CHI-A(maybe). If he continues to slug for teams that never appear on anything other than their own Local Fox cable network, he'll never make it.
OK - then when will or why won't/can't the report be adjusted to remove Chipper Jones, since he is not coming back this season?
Congrats on 1000. I worried when you started your count down - then disappeared. You cover baseball, you should know not to talk about streaks! You are one of the reasons I maintain my subscription and I wish you many happy returns.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics - Twain
One more Hawaiian pun and Madam Pele will chuck an unlucky lava rock your way.
Admittedly it would be speculation, but anyway to indicate who you think might be Super Two Arbitration victims? i.e. prospects who were sent down that should appear in the majors around June 1st or so?
FIRE - Fitness and Injury Recovery Evaluations
'In Will's recent Cincinnati FIRE ratings, you can really see the damage that Dusty does to young pitchers.'
Mmmm, yeah... we'll need to talk to you about that on Saturday.
I think I'm about ready to quit my subscription after endless years of precise and expert analysis from numerous authors and countless angles as to why my beloved Reds have / do / and will continue to *SUCK*
Not really mad about it - apart from y'all continually telling me Chris Young will be good *this* year - it's an insightful and informative site. It's just that it's getting too depressing to take anymore.
Thank you - I'd been looking for a way to describe his play in those painful seasons. All Hail Zombie Barry Larkin!
I would argue that Porcello did it correctly. By starting the tackle with the right - he fell to the ground going left. This would cause the impact of hitting the ground - and the possible strained wrist or seperated shoulder - to be absorbed by his left side.
Might I bring to your attention the new logo for the Former Ft Wayne Wizards ... the new Ft Wayne Tin Caps.
Apparently it just won the best new logo award from MiLB.com.
What\'s a Tin Cap, you ask? Well if looking at the logo didn\'t help, it\'s a reference to Johnny Appleseed, famous early american pioneer, who traveled through the midwest planting apple trees where ever he went.
The problem with the logo is Johnny Appleseed didn\'t wear a \"Tin Cap\". Everyone knows he wore a POT on his HEAD. Knowing that fact, you should be able to figure out the new nickname those of us who aren\'t happy with the change have given the Ft. Wayne club.
I used to have second row season tickets to the Dragons. The place is a shrine and a wonderful baseball experience. Season tickets sales already make it a sellout - but it\'ll be SRO ... for a pre season Reds game.
Cinci should do even more to cross market to their rabid fan base in Dayton. Like offer free Reds Game vouchers as part of the Dragons Season ticket pack. Or sell a 20 game Reds/Dragons pack between the two parks. There are many large suburbs of Dayton to the south and south west of town, making them closer to Cinci than the listed 50 miles.
As a smaller market team I think the Reds should do something every year in Dayton and Louisville (a AAA attendance leader in their own right). They need to do everything they can to reach out to as much of their \'small\' market as they can. They have all but abandoned Columbus to the Indians, even though Cincinnati is closer to Columbus than Cleveland. Apart from the Spring \'Caravan\' tour, you\'d never know there was a team to the south of Cow-town.
I think this a great idea and am ticked that I know I can\'t possibly get tickets for it.
Long Live Roof Man!!!
You\'re right - Hill may have him beat. And also it\'s Andrus not Andres. E on me.
So much for being original with Homer Bailey to the Rangers, but I will try going smaller instead.
Bailey (SP) for G. Laird (C) and E. Andres (SS).
Reds get a catcher that can play today and a SS that\'d be playing for a job in the spring. Plus Andres is a speed guy that Dusty could lead off with.
Rangers clear the lowest rung on some of their positional log jams. Catcher is obivous but they are keeping all the intriguing picks (possibly to tradae one later). Texas is also stocked at SS with Young now and Lemon in the future. And they get a Native son pitcher who is clearly the winner of the 2008 \"needs a change of scenery\" award.