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gweedoh565
337 comments | 617 total rating | 1.83 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/48688
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=29172">Luis Sojo</a></span> won the World Series 5 times. HOFer? Almost probably.

Apr 07, 2017 6:40 AM on Games of April 6
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

I'd love to be optimistic about progressive bullpen use by the Reds but <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Bryan+Price">Bryan Price</a></span> has said this before prior to other seasons, specifically w/r/t to using Chapman in high-leverage vs. traditional closer situations, and nothing ever came of it.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31752">Lew Ford</a></span>!

Oct 28, 2016 9:59 AM on Games of October 24th
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

You'll be missed around here, Chris! I've particularly enjoyed your version of MLU.

Sep 30, 2016 6:25 AM on No Projection Left
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

I would like a count of the number of baseball metaphors used in the dirty scenes.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

A new favorite from Sam's "Life Spoilers" series.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

The last few weeks of that parity-heavy sim- w/ division/WC leaders likely changing daily- would be the funnest baseball ever.

Mar 22, 2016 6:25 AM on Sim City 1000000
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Thonks for the correction.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Yeah... I know this system is relatively deep and that the return for Chapman was disappointing (based on his baseball talent alone, not considering off-field stuff), but it is a bit disheartening that zero of the pieces the Reds received are even mentioned here (unless I'm missing something).

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 6

In addition to the points made by delatopia and Jeffrey, consider that not all tools should be weighted the same. For example, an 80 hit tool is a lot more valuable than an 80 speed tool (which is why <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ted+Williams">Ted Williams</a></span> is in the HOF and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=30503">Herb Washington</a></span> is a fun fact).

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Oof, as someone approaching the age that many baseball players retire, this got me in the feels. Really enjoyed it.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Nice work, Chris and team! Question: past year's lists included both a "Overall Future Potential" as well as a "Realistic Role". I'm not complaining about these being dropped, but just curious as to which one the current "Role" best represents?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing." - <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=29204">Warren Spahn</a></span>. Great stuff, Chris- this is really interesting.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

I took that as coming from a scout for a team that was a potential trade partner with the Astros.

Aug 05, 2015 7:20 AM on August 5, 2015
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

That would explain why the Torondo Blue Jays and Houston Asdros are so close to the top.

Jun 29, 2015 12:51 PM on June 29, 2015
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Re: the idea of replay umps taking precedence over live umps (discussed beginning ~30:00) How about this solution: the live ump assigns an uncertainty value to his call (e.g. on a 5 point scale, 5 being "most certain" and 1 being "least certain") and somehow relays that value to the replay officials. If the replay officials are more certain than the live ump, their call takes precedence. There would still be ties where both sets of officials are equally uncertain, but at least it would reduce the amount of "inconclusive" rulings.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

I know this isn't the same things as "percentage of high-leverage situations", but according to FanGraphs' Average Leverage Index when entering a game, Chapman's numbers don't seem to differ that significantly between 2012-2013 Baker and 2014-2015 Price: 2012: 1.86 2013: 1.79 2014: 1.74 2015: 2.07 (SSS, obviously)

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

I don't really understand the calls for public discipline. The guy was venting b/c his club was under-performing and under-staffed. The issue and forum through which he vented was ill-advised, but it didn't really hurt anyone (except those offended by bad language, I guess?), and it was hilarious, so who cares? You could maybe argue that C Trent was hurt by it since the rant was directed at him, but it sure doesn't seem like he took any offense (he presented it as a guy venting b/c his team was sucking).

Apr 22, 2015 12:55 PM on Bryan Price's Other Sins
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

In the Reds/Brewers game, the Brewers were never down 8-0 or 13-1; they actually tied it up 4-4 in the bottom of third (immediately after Bruce's grand slam) before again dropping behind by 4 courtesy Frazier's grand slam in the very next inning.

Apr 22, 2015 9:22 AM on Ike!
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

And the byline for every article is "BPHiveMind".

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Hot dogs.

Apr 09, 2015 8:31 AM on March 17, 2015
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 6

Keep the site the way it is! If it ain't broke, don't make me have to lose an afternoon relearning where <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> is hiding.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

On second look, the error bars represent min/max range and not standard error. Still, it is extremely doubtful that the differences are significant.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Re: the first graph showing horizontal movement by times through the order Given those error bars, there's NO WAY those differences are anywhere close to statistically significant.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 7

I love this type of "what if?" exploratory analysis. These are exactly the type of questions that come up while at a game w/ one's best baseball buds. Now I'm curious to see what would happen if you put 2003 Mike Maroth on the 2003 Detroit Tigers. Oh wait...

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Looks like Clay Davenport (7) also commented as recently as December 2013: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/i/7

Mar 09, 2015 12:42 PM on BP's New Owners
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

I'm with you, Guillaume (and I appreciate your music as well). My take is that if you're going to nerd out and lose weekends/work hours to fantasy baseball, you should at least come out of it with a sense of a player's actual value, undistorted by 5x5's overvaluation of RBI/SB/AVG.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Whoa, no-go on Hideo Nomo? Low blow, bro.

Feb 03, 2015 1:37 PM on Grading the Funk
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

FYI Cincinnati spelled wrong in the subtitle to this article on the main page.

Jan 05, 2015 7:42 AM on The Byrd Has Landed
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

By any chance is Wilmer Difo related to Willem Dafoe?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Plus he has that stereotypical round, slightly pudgy catcher's face a la Ham from The Sandlot.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

For me the name "Rob Wooten" make me think of Ron Coomer, who wasn't a catcher but had typical catcher-like characteristics in that he was slow and bad at hitting.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Sam, did you realize that you directly quoted the chorus of "One Headlight" at 22:47 (re: Yankees, "there's got to be something better than in the middle")? Was that a subconscious reflection of your preoccupation with it's inappropriate usage in the commercial or instead a purposefully inserted Easter egg as a gift to loyal listeners? If the latter, do I get a prize?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

This is the same concept that explains the difference between FanGraphs pitcher WAR (which is FIP-based- how a pitcher generally "should" have done) and the other pitcher WAR(P)s (based on runs allowed- how a pitcher actually did). There's value in measuring both- how a hitter/pitcher/fielder "should" have done is generally better for predicting future performance while how they actually performed is of course much better at describing their past value, which is how WAR is almost always used.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

I've been really enjoying your columns, Rocco. You seem to have a great knack for getting genuine and non-cliche'd quotes from ball players. Thanks for making it happen!

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

You could at least look at the REALLY obvious "clutch" situations, right? Like >8th inning, tied or down by 1 or 2 with men in scoring position. Surely those situations are universally recognized as critical even by young players of the game. And in lieu of treating that as a binary clutch/not-clutch variable you could use LI in those "obvious" situations and some baseline for any non-clutch situation. Also would be interesting if those clutch situations could be weighted by the importance of the game itself (i.e. a game for a team in a pennant race means more (has higher "game leverage"(?)) than a Rangers game). Also, lasers! You could include lasers!

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

This is a good point, but mertes79's comment does address that other clutch-related question of whether players can "turn it up" when called upon, or when they sense that they need to, or something to that effect.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

"...but this article really is pointless as anything but a list of which teams various writers were fans of or grew up listening to." That's exactly what the article purports to be. The title is "Our Favorite Broadcasters (Non-Vin Scully Edition)".

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Holy wow. If Mike Trout is a linebacker, Joey Gallo is a monstrously well built tight end, a la Antonio Gates.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Yeah, I've heard this said too, and there's some anecdotal evidence that this is the case, at least- Yadier Molina, Jonathan Lucroy, and Devin Mesoraco were all particularly slow bloomers offensively. Then again you also have the Buster Posey's and Joe Mauer's that hit fine out of the gate.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

Potential-ish 5-strikeout catcher/pitcher combos to watch (based on high K% pitcher/low Blocking Runs Added catcher teammates, 2013-2014): Wilin Rosario (-7.4 BR Added '13-14) and Boone Logan (30.6%) or Rex Brothers (24.7%) Evan Gattis (-4.0) and anyone in the ATL bullpen Jose Molina (-4.9) and anyone in the TBR bullpen

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

I believe the incident Sam might have been thinking of that resulted in injury was the Guinness Book of World Records catch of a ball dropped from 800 feet from a blimp in 1939, caught by Joe Sprinz. It was supposedly traveling 154-mph* and was caught such that it "broke his upper jaw in twelve places, fractured five of his teeth and [he] was rendered unconscious". Here's a source for the story: http://www.danieldemers.com/BASEBALL-PAGE2.php * I'm no physicist, but this seems dubious... I would think terminal velocity would be reached sooner and so the speed wouldn't be much different than the ~100 mph estimated from the 200-300 foot plane drops. And in fact, this source suggests terminal velocity of a baseball is around 74 mph: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/airfri2.html

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 5

Using Play-Index: -6 PA vs. Michael McKENry -3 PA vs. Howie KENdrick -2 PA vs. Ian KENnedy Bonus points: -3 PA vs. Guillermo Quiroz -8 PA vs. Gregor Blanco -3 PA vs. Cliff Lee -17 PA vs. Zangeif (12 for 15, 12 spinning piledrivers, 2 BB)

Jul 14, 2014 10:32 AM on Monday, July 14
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

There are often some interesting choices among the pitchers... in 2011 Robinson Cano chose his father and Matt Holliday chose Yadier Molina as their personal pitchers.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

But then what happens to the catcher he's replacing? One would still have to move to another position, which for a catcher is usually limited to 1B, which would mean burning what is usually one of your best batters.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

These are great! I went to the same school that Johnny Bench's kids went to, although they were a good decade younger than I. Despite that, the legend himself showed up at a few of my highschool baseball practices and spent a few minutes giving tips on throwing runners out to our catcher. With an air of typical male teen bravado, our catcher brushed it off afterwards with something to the effect of "that was cool, I guess...". YOU BET YOUR A** IT WAS COOL. YOU JUST GOT TIPS ON HOW TO DO SOMETHING THAT QUITE POSSIBLY NO ONE IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD HAS EVER DONE BETTER, dumb-dumb.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Another factor in the increasing position-player pitcher trend may be the league-wide offensive decline/rise of the pitcher over the past decade; while the % of 9+ run wins may be down, so too is the perceived (and actual?) ability of a team to recover from a 9 run deficit, since 9+ runs just don't come along very often nowadays. In other words, in the early-aughts, a team down by 9 runs may still feel like they have a reasonable chance to at least make it close, while in 2014 the odds of even making it close have been greatly reduced.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

"Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams."

May 12, 2014 9:29 AM on Monday, May 12
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

"How much can batters decide whether to hit a groundball or a fly ball?" Shouldn't we be able to somewhat tell this based on how batters perform in obvious sac fly situations (as in, a sac fly would tie or win the game)? Even better if it was an obvious sac fly situation + a ground ball would lead to a double play. This sounds like a Russell Carleton study (if it hasn't already been done yet).

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

Not to mention it's about as mild and unobtrusive a promo as it gets.

May 05, 2014 11:34 AM on May 5, 2014
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

The good news is that if Hudson's ankle ever re-heals in a freak in-game incident, he can always rely on the eephus. Let's just hope he hasn't yet realized that it's been **his mom's*** glove he's been using this whole time.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Ben's reaction to the Bleacher Report page view statistics is one of my new favorite EW moments.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Is that a Pearl Jam reference? Great stuff, Russell!

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

Both the wide range and high quality of offerings at BP continues to impress. Awesome stuff, thanks Rob et al.! And kudos for landing PECOTA on MLB.com, big win!

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

"...the first eight hitters in the frame either walked or sacrifice bunted. Which means the Twins came within one hitter of batting around without logging an at-bat." So glad I'm not a Blue Jays fan so that I can thoroughly enjoy this amazing feat.

Apr 18, 2014 7:43 AM on Meltdown in Minnesota
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

I imagine one of the reasons poker players are more likely to behave in this rational way is that they are playing just for themselves, and don't feel shared responsibility with their teammates, coaches, and manager. For example, if you got Mike Trout on-board with the idea of being more aggressive when scoring from 3rd and then cloned a teamful of Mike Trouts, then they would feel less pressure to conform to the conservative strategic norms because they'd know that all of their teamselves have their backs. So we see once again that the key is to have a team of cloned Mike Trouts.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Andrew mentions this when discussing the bias towards SS and CF (2nd paragraph after the PECOTA Top 100 table). Certainly it's easy to assume that catchers, as part of the same side of the defensive spectrum, are treated the same way.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 7

ProfJ, if you want an analysis of Abreu's BABIP, look it up and immediately conclude that there's nothing yet to conclude because of SSS.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Re: the Tony Sanchez quote, "Guys don't come here and use the baseballs with the smaller laces and get better, and he did". Do the baseballs have smaller laces at the big league level in comparison to minor leagues? I've never heard this before...

Mar 31, 2014 8:40 AM on March 24-30
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Those fake word clouds will provide months of laughter fuel. Sam is so generous.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

I just want to say that I loved the Hamilton/Molina mid-90's Mentos commercial.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 6

For one, they are from the future.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 7

adrock when I first read your comment- you "caught 500 Jays games"- I thought you literally meant you were a catcher for the Blue Jays. --runs to b-ref Blue Jays franchise encyclopedia-- --deduces adrock must be either Pat Borders or Randy Knorr-- --re-reads comment-- --sighs--

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

(my own comment is a total waste, I mean, not fawcettb's)

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 17

Technically, if the #1 system drops to #30 and every other team rises one step you could have 1 team falling and 29 teams rising, but that is ridiculously unlikely and this is a total waste of a comment.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

I gotta ask, bigchief, what is your assertion that the Reds don't give rookies a chance over veterans based on? Examples?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Adeiny (B)echavarria = Yianiechy Badervaar !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 6

It is the most satiriest satire.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 10

Kudos to the BP graphic design department.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

This reminds me of the seemingly endless stream of heralded "shortstop[s] of the future" that came through the system as Barry Larkin's career wound down: Pokey Reese, Travis "Gookie" Dawkins, Anderson Machado, Ray Olmedo, Felipe Lopez... just, so much... disappointment.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Au contraire, since 2007 (BP rankings): -Billy Hamilton was a SS until last year -Chris Valaika and Paul Janish made appearances in the top 10 -Todd Frazier and Neftali Soto both started as SS (though I doubt anyone ever thought they'd stick there) Still, though, in terms of major league regular SS, there's just Cozart and maybe a few average seasons out of Janish and Gregorius.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

To be fair, though, no one is born "getting it", right? I made some pretty asinine trade suggestions among friends when I was 14...

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Totally agreed :)

Jan 13, 2014 7:03 AM on Catchers
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Warning: Peter King does a closing haiku, too and he is awful

Jan 13, 2014 6:54 AM on Catchers
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

That's not a problem of shifting morals; that's a problem of people making lazy black/white moralistic interpretations of the reasons certain voters think Bonds/Clemens should be in the Hall of Fame.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

I think the much better question is why NOT play around with applying game theory in a mock/experimental ballot like this?

Jan 08, 2014 10:25 AM on The 2014 Results
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Goodness yes those are some awful offensive numbers. Wikipedia's bio on him suggests that his most significant contribution was being Cy Young's catcher for 14 years.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Loved the discussion about playoff "stress" vs. any and all other stress a player might experience in his life/career. Pretty much by definition, a major leaguer has already experienced probably at least half a dozen "levels up" in competitive atmosphere throughout his career: highschool to college, college to rookie-level MiLB, rookie-level to low-A to high-A to AA to AAA to MLB, not to mention "playoff" ball at any of the intermediate levels. So unless managers/owners implement some sort of "perform in the playoffs or you're fired!" principle, this is clearly a type of stress that they are already totally accustomed to coping with.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 12

The point of this article is that it's really really easy to use poor/biased/cherry-picked data to justify a preferred conclusion. Nowhere does Russell espouse WARP as the be-all-end-all of MVP determination, and in fact only uses it here to filter to those who should be in the MVP discussion.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

I love this idea, though I guess this would be more from the perspective of a player's value to a specific team, rather than his context-neutral value. In the described case, a player could be assigned 30 different values- one for each team, based on that teams current roster- which would be really interesting in terms of evaluating potential trade partners.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

**desperately hoping a reader who also happens to be a talented hip hop artist puts this to beat**

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

You're ignoring the possibility that LHP with reverse platoon splits are the new new market inefficiency.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

What does this mean, Corky?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Yeah, the Ottoneu format seems to fit both the desired requirements of (a) using advanced statistics and (b) being more than just a coin flip- i.e., you still have to manage day-to-day lineups and consider match-ups/splits/roster management/etc.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

This is great. It reminds of the Radiolab episode in which they discuss "The Book"- a database of sequences of moves from millions of documented chess games. In every chess game, at some point "The Novelty" is reached- the point where the game becomes totally unique from all other documented games. They describe it way better than I ever could: http://www.radiolab.org/2011/aug/23/rules-set-you-free/

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 8

I thought Sam did a good job on his report I also liked that he said the names of the players that hit the homer-runs.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

Unlikely; too much swing and miss in their game.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

Fantastic study.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Ooh, the mound moving is a good one- I'd also add that raising/lowering the mound in 1963/1969 would provide a wealth of PitchF/X analysis opportunities.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: -1

BOOM +1000

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

That would also be an amazing resource, though I was thinking smaller scale, like even just a summary table of the things just you have found so far this year, just to use as reference instead of having to track back through all your columns to remind myself how, for example, the effect of coaching compares in magnitude with the "Zobrist" effect.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 5

Great stuff, as usual, Russell. A suggestion for a resource for BP readers: a "review"-type article with a table showing the results of all this wonderful original research done by you and others so that we can more easily keep track of and compare the effects of all these concepts, something like: || concept || effect on || effect range (wins/year)|| |presence of good infield defender|adjacent fielder defensive efficiency| -10% defensive efficiency (XX wins/year) | hitting coach | team OPS | XX to XX wins/year| | pitching coach | team FIP | XX to XX wins/year| | one day off every 7 days | batter OPS | XX to XX wins/year| etc. And maybe add a few columns for metadata (e.g. data source and time period...)

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Might there be multicollinearity issues with win percentage, third-order wpct, and games back since they would all be correlated with each other to some degree? It would be interesting to see how the coefficients change if two of those three predictors were excluded.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

LOL Finger

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Thanks Corey, that makes a lot of sense. I wonder if they would be able to compare the results here to data from past UCL injuries that did not involve PRP. Obviously you'd lose the baseline measures that were taken in this study to aid in comparison, but it'd be better than nothing.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

Slow your roll, friends. This strikes me as an inappropriately strong conclusion for a study without a control group: (from the abstract) "The results of this study indicate that PRP is an effective option to successfully treat partial UCL tears of the elbow in athletes. " Frankly, without a control group, I'm not sure the study says anything at all (except maybe that PRP doesn't kill you). Am I missing something?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 6

I think you guys should re-paste the caveat about the rankings being algorithm-generated right next to the comment box. And also implement some sort of filter on all submitted comments. (filter on: "deserve", "respect", "why", "ranking", "how could you", "how is it possible", "Hey!", "come on", "give me a break", "#", "!")

Jun 26, 2013 7:01 AM on Wednesday, June 26
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

I can't find it now, of course, but I'm fairly certain that at some point in the past few days, someone at BP mentioned the number as somewhere in the range of 100-110 games. Maybe I dreamed it? And/or maybe I'm spending way too much time on this site.

Jun 20, 2013 6:18 PM on Thursday, June 20
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

As with any prospective acquisition, you can't really call any idea 'inane' until hear both sides of the transaction. What if the D-backs offered Goldschmidt, Skaggs, and Bradley? Which team is the most inanestest in that scenario?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Hits: 1. R 2. L 3. R 4. L 5. L 6. L 7. R 8. R 9. L 10.R I think I got almost 50% correct.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

I think you had it right the first time. I had also felt that no had commented, but I don't feel that way anymore.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Jason, you're not going to believe this...

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Gibbons will do anything to hold the terrible silence at bay as he awaits the return of Jose Reyes. Surely he'll return soon.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Playing baseball in highschool, I was always taught to stay on the bag until the pitcher had his foot on the rubber for this reason. Following that very simple rule prevents being caught by the I-thought-the-pitcher-had-the-ball variants of the play.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Here's what Sam said, starting right at the 25 minute mark: "Athletes in general are chosen for their ability to run fast, lift things, throw things, hit things, and they are not chosen for their personality skills. And in fact they are often chosen- I don't mean literally chosen - but their skills benefit from having the exact opposite of good social skills- from having almost sociopathic tendencies toward self-absorption and self-improvement." So he doesn't directly call them 'sociopaths'; he refers to the degree of self-absorption often required to reach the bigs 'almost' sociopathic. Seems like a reasonable statement to me.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 1

This is so sad and yet so funny. A++

 
gweedoh565
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He's one of the best hitters in baseball! He doesn't "need" to do anything at all differently!

 
gweedoh565
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"Keep everything the same, and maybe by the third or fourth inning, if you’re catching it cleanly you may get that call." This is an interesting observation- Ben, in your catcher framing evaluations, have you noticed a tendency for "stolen" strikes to occur more often later in games?

 
gweedoh565
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And what about this global warming stuff? It doesn't make sense to me. Has anyone ever heard of SUMMER???

May 08, 2013 1:48 PM on Wednesday, May 8
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 4

just in time to come back in style!

 
gweedoh565
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jinx!

May 07, 2013 6:40 AM on Games of Monday, May 6
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 2

They're not that pretty so far, aside from the SB's: AAA Louisville: .189/.256/.270 17 SB, 2 CS

May 07, 2013 6:40 AM on Games of Monday, May 6
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 0

Yes, but how many skunks are required in total? Technically, the rabid animal would not also have to be a skunk, although there's no reason it could not, and in which case why not just use the originally-rabid skunk in the first place? I need to place my order by 5pm.

May 03, 2013 8:40 AM on Baseball Out of Context
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 0
 
gweedoh565
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I used to have a dog that offs-peed in the neighbor's yard.

May 01, 2013 8:39 AM on Hooray for Hanleywood
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 6

Lou Gehrig. ALS started taking its toll at during his age 35 season in 1938 (the previous year he had put up a 176 OPS+ and 7.7 bWAR, both typical figures), and by the start of the 1939 season he could barely field a ground ball, retiring and ending his "Iron Horse" consecutive game streak 8 games into the season. His career numbers are insane and slam dunk HOF regardless, but had he been able to play until age 40 like his pal Babe Ruth, he might have surpassed 600 homers (he finished with 493); thrust himself into the all-time top 10 for bWAR (currently 18 behind); and possibly could have put the consecutive game streak out of Cal Ripken's reach (Cal's 2632 are a bit over 3 seasons more than Gehrig's 2130).

 
gweedoh565
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+a million. Even Marty is becoming unlistenable.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 5

I think I speak for everyone else in saying that we would all like some ice cream as well. Are there plans to provide us ice cream, varying flavors? Thanks, Ben.

Apr 25, 2013 1:57 PM on Up, Up, Upton and Away
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 2

And actually, considering that Lincecum basically came out of the box an incredible pitcher w/out influence of Righetti, and after years of exposure has deteriorated in effectiveness, doesn't that point much more towards Righetti being a bad coach than a particularly good one? I'm just playing devil's advocate here- Righetti is obviously not entirely to blame and I'm sure he is a good coach... just playing with your logical construct.

 
gweedoh565
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Lincecum and "evolved" and "continued success" are things that do not play well together. If you think Righetti should no doubt get credit for their successes, shouldn't he also no doubt get blamed for Lincecum's struggles?

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 3

I find something really comforting in the thought of the Scott Elarton types who aren't playing in order to earn another shot at the big leagues, but rather for love of the game (or for passing on the love of the game to their children, in Elarton's case). They've left behind the turmoil of rat race, the fierce competition, the business, the taunting ambition, and are free to just play a game they enjoy. Paycheck aside, that sounds like a good deal.

 
gweedoh565
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Great write-up on the Phillies-Reds game. That was a fun one to watch, and you did justice to that Bruce at-bat- a thing of beauty.

Apr 16, 2013 1:48 PM on Hammerin' Halos
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Agreed; this is great! Is there a way for peasant folk to access the injury database aside from through the player cards? I guess I'd be mostly interested in a summary table showing the number historic instances/average games missed/etc. for each injury type. Data!

 
gweedoh565
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Not sure if this is the incident you are talking about, but Farnsworth did at least aggressively approach Paul Wilson after coming inside on him. He gets docked a few points since Wilson was a pitcher as well, although the body slam more than makes up for it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mt0_0k40t4

 
gweedoh565
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Benny is way more a dick than I remember. I bet he has a painting of himself as a minotaur hanging in his bedroom.

 
gweedoh565
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Great article, RJ.

Apr 08, 2013 7:01 AM on Junk In His Trunk
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

How is it that Maholm and can lob it up there at a speed comparable to the maximum speed I can muster with a running start in one of those "test your pitch speed" cages? Baseball players are amazing and also I am so weak.

 
gweedoh565
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It's hard out here for a pimp.

 
gweedoh565
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What about just adding a few line breaks between each Twitter entry to more clearly separate them? Great job as usual, guys!

Apr 03, 2013 5:54 AM on March 25-31
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 2

SOURCE: Matt Kory has married Matt Sussman, taking his last name, all in the name of confusing Hit List readers. Which Matt is writing on which day? Mystery, intrigue, and betrayal and also baseball, all in this season of... The Hit List. {theme song}

Apr 02, 2013 12:20 PM on Tuesday, April 2
 
gweedoh565
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This is already a great resource. Thanks Clint, Jason, and Joe!

 
gweedoh565
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dang, beat to the punch!

 
gweedoh565
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Yep, BP partnered up with FantasyRundown to provide this service: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19760

 
gweedoh565
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Agreed, with all this talk about the value of leverage, it seems like WPA is very informative here. Too bad it only goes back to 1974 or so.

Mar 22, 2013 2:18 PM on Ranking Rivera
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 9

Oh dear. This brings a whole new meaning to terms like "mechanical intricacies", "raw", "explosive hip turn", '“loud” contact', and totally out of context, "fluid, explosive."

Mar 21, 2013 11:29 AM on Best Hit/Power
 
gweedoh565
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This is just stupidly thorough. And I had no idea BP had Run Expectancy tables... A multifaceted delight!

 
gweedoh565
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Format-wise, I'd also recommend putting team names in bold so that we can more easily do a quick scan for our fav teams' prospects.

 
gweedoh565
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My concern with Greene is that he's already had 4 extended cups of coffee in the majors (>115 PA 2009-2012) and has yet to show he can replicate his gaudy minor league numbers (which must be driving his projections) in the majors. I took a flier on him for $1 due to the potential, but he's on a short leash, and his crappy ST numbers make it shorter.

Mar 20, 2013 8:52 AM on Second Basemen
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

...my implication being that all you have to do is go to the next article if Jason's off-the-beaten path pieces are not your bag.

Mar 19, 2013 7:46 AM on The Magic of Mondesi
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 20

And in 95% of the prospect-related articles on this site, that's what you get.

Mar 19, 2013 7:44 AM on The Magic of Mondesi
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Really interesting stuff. Here are the percentages for those who, like me, were curious: 2007: 0.513 % 2008: 0.174 % 2009: 0.080 % 2010: 0.069 % 2011: 0.054 % 2012: 0.046 %

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: -1

/applies mustache wax, chortles/

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: -1

As the guy who posted the original comment that revealed Ben and Sam's prejudices against the Reds*, I am just tickled that the Reds organization has recognized my diligent efforts in my ongoing campaign against the BP Daily Podcast. I'll get you SOB's off the air if it's the last thing I do! *actually, the conclusion of the original exercise was that they hate the entire NL Central... Cubs/Cardinals/Pirates/Brewers orgs, join the fight!

 
gweedoh565
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AND it ends up really entertaining for the rest of us. <- I felt the need to add this lest anyone think my first comment was intended as an insult, which it most definitely was not. :)

 
gweedoh565
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"If there wasn't, everybody's values for players' WAR (or WARP) would be the same." There are a LOT of things that differentiate WAR calculations aside from the chosen replacement level: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 7

I love that when Sam has a stupid idea he dives head first into the stupid.

 
gweedoh565
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In that case, James Joyce is one disrespectful m***** f*****.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 1
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 2

In Ian's defense, dislike of the AZ/Phoenix vibe is not uncommon, warranted or not. The sprawly/strip mall-centric design is a common put off- Jason Parks' narrative description in his ST Diaries last year masterfully (and hilariously) conveys this: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16330 Kind of related, here's a super crude analysis of which of the top 30 US metropolitan statistical areas that are considered the suckiest, based only on the number of Google search results for "[city name] sucks" and normalized by population: metro area results/population las vegas 0.045 denver 0.032 boston 0.032 st louis 0.030 “new york” 0.028 *will include NY state, too phoenix/scottsdale 0.028 san diego 0.027 san antonio 0.022 orlando 0.015 cleveland 0.013 san fran/oakland 0.013 dallas/fort worth 0.013 minneapolis/st paul 0.010 washington dc 0.010 detroit 0.009 tampa 0.009 “new york city” 0.009 “los angeles”/”la" 0.007 pittsburgh 0.007 houston 0.006 portland 0.005 miami 0.004 seattle 0.004 riverside/san bern. 0.003 baltimore 0.002 chicago 0.002 sacramento 0.002 ** cincinnati 0.002 atlanta 0.002 philadelphia 0.001 ** there's an urban dictionary entry for "sacramento sucks"

 
gweedoh565
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Really enjoyed this, Ian. I attended ST in AZ for the first time last year, and like Adrian, was totally weirded out by players running on the warning track during the games. I certainly get that, "the games are meaningless, who cares?", but, on the other hand, there are acres and acres and acres of practice fields immediately surrounding the field, so why not use those and avoid the heckling as well as the risk of colliding with drifting outfielders?

 
gweedoh565
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Well, it makes them comparatively aggressive, which was the main point.

 
gweedoh565
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Unusual gifs indeed: http://gif.mocksession.com/2012/06/chapman-somersault/ Oh, wait...

Feb 22, 2013 8:19 PM on Aroldis Chapman
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

FINALLY a "The Kid Who Only Hit Homers" reference. BP's accomplishments are now complete. Shut it down.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

Just remember that it's Colin that hates the Orioles, not PECOTA.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: -1

Jason Parks disagrees with an assessment of these two particular pitchers that is based solely on WARP; therefore, WARP is inherently flawed and should be discontinued?

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: -1

Fair enough- I misinterpreted your comment. I don't necessarily think this means that WARP is inaccurate, though (and no BP writers have made that claim), but rather that the interpretation of what it measures is inaccurate; the evidence here suggests that it tends to measure "skills" (or something similar) as opposed to "results" (fWAR is very similar for pitchers). To that end, maybe we just need a bit more transparency as to how WARP values pitchers.

 
gweedoh565
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I realize I'm probably just arguing semantics here, but in defense of Parks, I think it's a bit of a stretch to call the argument "convincingly supported" given the numbers I cited above. Also, I don't see how the fact that WARP is a BP metric makes any difference... the implication is that all BP writers should blindly adhere to stats produced by BP, ignoring their limitations (in this case very meaningful limitations) for the sake of solidarity, and that's a dangerously cultish attitude, particularly for an organization that espouses a practically academic treatment of baseball analysis.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: -1

FWIW, those WARP numbers seem entirely FRA-driven, as most of the traditional, results-based stats peg Hellickson as superior: Here are their 2012 stats: Hellickson: 177 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.54 FRA, .269 oppTAv Moore: 177.3 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.65 FRA, .271 oppTAv FWIW, bWAR's calculation seems more "actual results" driven: Hellickson: 2.9 WAR 2012, 3.5 WAR 2011 Moore: 1.2 WAR 2012

 
gweedoh565
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I was too young at the time to remember the record-breaker, but I attended the final night game at Cinergy (nee Riverfront) in 2002, which afterwards featured an insanely awesome fireworks show. The show culminated with a blazing sparkler that shot from home plate, following the exact trajectory of Rose's record-breaking hit into left field as Marty Brennaman's call played over the PA. Made me all tingly.

 
gweedoh565
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On the other hand, Doug used a picture that demonstrates a noticeable mechanical change- I would suspect that visual evidence would be easier for an un-sabr-oriented arbitrator to swallow than a number and acronym salad.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 0

There's some speculation on the PECOTA 2013 introduction thread that the replacement level used by Colin et al. was lowered this year, which would explain an increase in VORP/WARP vs. 2012.

Feb 12, 2013 8:47 AM on November 7-13
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

PECOTA relies mostly on historical comps, and there simply just aren't that many good historical comps for a pitcher like Dickey, who busted out a career year at age 37. The best real world comps are other knuckleballers (Tim Wakefield, Hoyt Wilhelm, Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough all had their best years >35), but: (a) neither PECOTA nor any other projection system "knows" whether a pitcher is a knuckleballer (e.g.: none of PECOTA's comparables for Dickey- Dennis Martinez, Derek Lowe, Early Wynn - were knuckleballers) and (b) even among knuckleballers, Dickey's success last season was extremely unique (much higher K/9 and K/BB than previous knuckleballers). So, in conclusion, this is why no projection system knows what to do with Dickey (except probably the simplest one, Marcel, which relies solely on previous years stats).

 
gweedoh565
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"What we're looking for is a well-functioning and well-connected social network." This makes me wonder if any interesting patterns can be derived from Twitter- a public data source participated in by many professional athletes. For instance, one could use the Twitter API to document the number of athletes that "mention" teammates in tweets. I doubt there are enough active users per team to generate anything too meaningful, but it might be worth it to at least do a feasibility assessment.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 4

Using the powers of deduction, it looks like the game represented by that first GIF is this one: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN201006150.shtml (it's the only one in 2009-2010 in which the Reds are playing the Dodgers at home and Owings gets a pinch hit single). Anyways, the LF in that situation is none other than Manny Ramirez, so I think it's pretty safe to say that that would have been an out if any other player were out there.

 
gweedoh565
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FYI on the Top 10 Prospects index page (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/), Avisail Garcia is listed as the Tigers #1 prospect (as opposed to Castellanos here)

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 9

Sam, I really think that for the A-Rod v. Jeter battle you should have normalized by PA's as a Yankee. Jeter has >6000 more PA than A-Rod to accumulate accolades. Responsible research methods, b****, add an n-value

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 3

I'm not questioning the correctness of this list, but I'm curious: what factors keep 5'10" white guy SS with 84 career OPS+ Cliff Pennington from the number 1 position?

 
gweedoh565
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Great piece, Dave. Baseball on the radio is a wonderful thing. As Sam Miller pointed out in the podcast, it has barely changed over the past few decades despite the flurry of technological advancements surrounding it. It's like Big Boy restaurants in that way... but in a good way. ;)

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

pres130, the real risk wouldn't be players forgoing baseball for medicine/law/etc., but for other sports where salaries are market driven. Many top prep athletes are heavily recruited for football and/or basketball in addition to baseball and certainly would be more likely to choose those routes if the potential salaries were so widely disproportionate.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Well, this begs the question: which BP contributors are 30 years old or younger?

 
gweedoh565
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All WAR(P) stats take defense and position into account. The reason they are so different in this case appears to be the systems used to evaluate defense. UZR (fWAR) and TZR (bWAR) rate Bourn's defense at 3-4 WAR while FRAA (WARP) rates it at 0 WAR. For future reference, I find this tabular breakdown of how the different WAR(P)'s are calculated very useful: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

Jan 17, 2013 2:23 PM on Final Free-Agent Blitz
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 1

Great stuff, Larry!

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 2

Wanted to add that TAV is also park- and league-adjusted, which, again, is very useful for comparing player offensive value.

 
gweedoh565
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Well, I mean, the fact that TAV is not 'catching on' doesn't mean it doesn't have value in any situation. It's a single rate metric that indicates overall offensive value... which is basically what OPS tried to be, but TAV is more accurate (FanGraphs wOBA is very similar- certainly someone smarter than me could and probably has made an argument to abandon one over the other, although I know they are not exactly alike). I also like the triple slash, for all the reasons you cite, but for situations when you want to compare player offensive value, how do you know which one of these lines is more valuable than the other? .300/.350/.400 .280/.320/.500 TAV would provide the answer. Just an example for how its useful.

 
gweedoh565
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...the idea being that players at different ages bring different perspectives/advantages, and the more perspectives there are, the better for the team as a whole.

 
gweedoh565
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Related to this, I've often wondered if the age distribution of a roster has any detectable influence on team performance- e.g., would a team with a relatively even distribution of a handful of rookies, a handful of young post-rookies, and some early and late veterans perform better than a team made up predominantly of veterans or young regulars? I can't imagine an easy way to statistically test this, what with the thousands of other variables involved, but one could start by dividing teams into age-distribution categories and comparing records.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Oh man. This is so great.

Jan 11, 2013 12:26 PM on Bagging on Bagwell
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Mickey Cochrange: FINALLY, a word that rhymes with 'orange'!!

Jan 10, 2013 1:28 PM on The Voting Travesty
 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 3

I can say, as someone who has wasted most of the day minusing andrews' comments, that the minusing has nothing to do with his stance on PED users and everything to do with presentation.

Jan 09, 2013 5:31 PM on Casting Our Ballots
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 11

Your comments are aggressive, confrontational, and usually include logical fallacies and poorly explained or unsupported arguments. Hence, they suck.

Jan 09, 2013 7:28 AM on Casting Our Ballots
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

Here's your guy who voted for Bonds but not Clemens: http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20130101/sports/701019948/

 
gweedoh565
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...and four ump-frownies equals one ball, so...

 
gweedoh565
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He also does a KILLER Bruce Bochy impression.

 
gweedoh565
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...says the guy who quoted 'eseduce.com' as an authority on mental illnesses. Never going to let you live that one down, Richard.

 
gweedoh565
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Comment rating: 11

Thanks, Ben, for the very nice tribute. The following was written by a friend on FB, (who I'd credit if he had a BP account!): "Ryan Freel was the kind of ballplayer Cincinnatians adore, his on-field DNA the stuff of Charlie Hustle. He slammed into walls, tore along baselines, whipped the bat through the strike zone with impunity, playing each game as if it was his last, even as he manned the field for some terrible, terrible teams. Damn, Ryan. Man. Rest in peace, brother. Rest in peace."

Dec 23, 2012 5:11 PM on Remembering Ryan Freel
 
gweedoh565
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Colin, just want some clarification- tell me if I'm wrong- but is this what is meant by 'component' vs. 'run-based' park factors?: component park factors: individual factors for singles, doubles, triples, HR, etc. run-based: just a single factor based on runs What about handedness of hitters- is this accounted for in either?

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

This is great, but: we don't get no stinking table?! Show us the top 20!

Dec 20, 2012 10:21 AM on The Four-Tool Teams
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

I'm pretty sure Kevin Millar yelling “GOT HEEEEEEEEEEEEEM!” is about the greatest extent of "analysis of the shows MLB Network does broadcast" that is possible. Loved it, Ian! LOL'd at Keep America Strong! and Flip this Franchise, among quite a few others.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

Let's get some easily-lookupable-facts straight: (a) WAR calculations may differ, but all of them showed Trout as clearly way more valuable than Cabrera: fWAR: Trout=10.0, Cabrera=7.1 rWAR: Trout=10.7, Cabrera=6.9 WARP: Trout=9.1, Cabrera=6.1 (b) All WAR(P) metrics include defense, OBP, AND baserunning per: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml (c) Another common non-WR-related argument was that Cabrera out-"clutched" Trout (big September stats), but there was a nice piece of analysis at FanGraphs that dispelled that: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/ (d) Given all this, Cabrera won seemingly due to three primary factors: he voluntarily moved to 3B, his team made the playoffs, he own the Triple Crown.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Baseball Reference has a fanastic tabular breakdown of the differences between each metric: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

Dec 14, 2012 10:10 AM on Which WAR(P) Are You?
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 3

Hanley has really let himself go.

Dec 14, 2012 9:04 AM on Which WAR(P) Are You?
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 4

"The Reds have been faking the leadoff spot since Bip Roberts" <-- this was my exact impression as well, until I went back and looked at the last decade and was reminded of a certain Ryan Freel who filled the role quite nicely from '04-'06 (~.370 OBP). Regardless, it still somehow FEELS like two decades since the Reds have had a prototypical leadoff hitter, thanks no doubt to the chasms of out-producing suck that were Stubbs, Cozart, Willy Taveras, Orlando Cabrera, and Corey Patterson.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 6

You just cited an article from "eseduce.com" as a credible source. Being anti-social basically means having an underdeveloped conscience and a general disregard for the rights and concerns of others. Having social anxiety means feeling discomfort in social interactions due to over-sensitivity to the perception that they are judging you. They are wholly and dramatically and extremely different things. This is an oversimplification, but: anti-social people don't care at all about what other people think, while those with social anxiety care way too much about what other people think.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 1

You're missing an apparently significant component of Shield's value by looking just at WARP, which is the "good team mate" and "coach to younger pitchers" angle, cited here by R.J. and elsewhere. Obviously this value is totally unquantifiable, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It certainly makes sense that a team with a lot of younger pitchers (Chen excluded) could benefit a lot from the presence of a veteran who has had success fulfilling his potential.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 2

Out of respect for a veteran player, maybe? MLB minimum is 480,000, so it's only $220,000 over. And who knows, maybe they had to compete with an offer from another team (unlikely, I know).

Dec 06, 2012 9:40 AM on Manager Monger
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, but: "A" has happened without "B" ...does not mean... "B" enables "A" ...is untrue.

 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 0

FYI, everything is bold for me to- I'm using Chromium v. 20.0 on Ubuntu 12.04.

Nov 28, 2012 7:33 PM on Games of November 27
 
gweedoh565
(48688)
Comment rating: 11

Great stuff- I know it's been said before, but I'll repeat that it's really awesome to have someone with Russell's unique perspective and expertise on the BP staff. Russell is becoming to baseball psychology/psychiatry what Will Carroll was/is to baseball injuries and KG was/is to baseball prospecting and Jason Parks is to Tom Verducci stalking.

Nov 28, 2012 12:09 PM on The Truth About Adderall
 
gweedoh565
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Very interesting- thanks, Maury!

 
gweedoh565
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yes, +lots

 
gweedoh565
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Is Zach the PTBNL for Goldstein/Fast?

 
gweedoh565
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p.s. the threshold point in that situation is 92%. If Lamont was less than 92% sure that Fielder would have scored, the RE of holding him would have been greater than that of sending him (ignoring who was up or the game situation, etc.), and so he should have held him.

 
gweedoh565
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I suspect someone smarter than me has already done this analysis, but, based on Run Expectancies (I'll abbreviate to RE) (http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html): DON'T SEND HIM scenario -runners on 2nd, 3rd, 0 out= 2.050 RE SEND HIM scenario -if we assume a 90% chance of Prince scoring: -scores (90%): (1{Prince's run} + 1.170{RE 2nd,0out} * 0.90 = 1.95 -doesn't score(10%): 0.721{RE 2nd,1out} * 0.1 = 0.07 -total RE: 1.95 + 0.07 = 2.02 I *think* it's safe to say 2.05 vs 2.02 RE is pretty debatable. And, there are other factors in play: the back end of the Tiger's lineup (Peralta, Garcia, Laird) was due up, no doubt decreasing the RE, also it was a scoreless game at that point, so the value of scoring AT LEAST one run was higher (there are #'s on the linked RE page for that too, but this comment is already too long).

 
gweedoh565
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Darin Ruf's right-handed triple slash is so fine.

Oct 29, 2012 7:58 AM on Games of October 28
 
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Sam, these have been really great, entertaining, and insightful write-ups for the entire series. Thank you!

 
gweedoh565
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This may be true, but you're talking about a handful of writers for each player at most, out of ~700 total ballots. Any inside knowledge of "intangibles" that these few writers have is almost assuredly not going to impact who wins the award.

 
gweedoh565
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My goodness... what is that strange tingly feeling? Is that what sympathy for the Yankees feels like? A great burden has been lifted. I am free.

 
gweedoh565
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nicely done, BP intern crew! I particularly enjoyed the humor in the Twitter section.

Oct 01, 2012 8:02 AM on September 24-30
 
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Fantasy enthusiasts are already well-aware of this "pitchers are much less predictable" notion- many strategists recommend investing a disproportionately higher percentage of $ towards batters than pitchers b/c of this. So: if fantasy players are aware, then without a doubt GM's are already aware to a much greater extent.

 
gweedoh565
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Wait, pitchers can do this with no consequence if no one is on base?! Why in the hell don't more pitchers do this then? What a great way to psyche out a batter! If the only barrier is the myth about being injured, then, please, let's debunk that and get moving with some #weirdbaseball.

 
gweedoh565
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Damn straight, Dusty is abusing his relievers- making them pitch OVER 67 IP a year. He totally should have learned that after he caused Ryan Madson's elbow ligament to tear after only a few spring training sessions. And he also ruined Nick Masset's entire season. Dusty HAS to be stopped.

 
gweedoh565
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If you make this a multi-part series, I will forgive you for wasting your BP Daily Podcast Reds' topic on Bronson Arroyo.

 
gweedoh565
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Love this, although I'd argue that a 9% swing is in fact pretty close, especially given how hypothetical your assumptions are. e.g., what if the chance of winning while punting was 20%? That would push the chances of making the ALDS while punting over top. And actually, ~20% would probably be more reasonable since according to WAR/WARP, a roster of replacement players should win ~32% of their games- but should probably take a hit since they're playing a postseason-quality team.

Sep 21, 2012 6:22 AM on Wild-Card Game Theory
 
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gweedoh565
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Dear Sam and Ben, A few days ago I was on the verge of posting a whiny comment about how you never talk about the Reds on the podcast, but I decided instead to hold up, gather some data, and make sure my complaint was warranted first. So I made a spreadsheet tracking every BP Daily Podcast topic that has been discussed so far and which team, if any, each topic pertained to (or if the topic was a particular player, that player's team (or teamS if it was a recently traded player)). The results show that my whiny accusation is justified: Of the 73 topics that could be linked to a particular team or teams, only 1 (the very first, on Chapman) was about the Reds. But, CIN isn't the only team given short shrift: SDP = 0 topics, and only 1 topic for: CLE, HOU, MIL, STL, TOR. Look further, and we see a bone-chilling trend: -Summarizing by division- AL East - 16 (3.2/team) AL Central - 14 (2.8/team) AL West - 16 (4.0/team) NL East - 18 (3.6/team) NL Central - 9 (1.5/team) NL West - 12 (2.4/team) (*it adds up to >73 since some topics pertain to multiple teams) It's not like the NL Central is bereft of interesting things to talk about: Reds: best record in MLB at times?! 32-16 w/out Votto! Cueto! Frazier! The magical plays of Brandon Phillips! Cardinals: great run differential; mediocre record! Many runs w/out Pujols, Berkman! Pirates: The Pirates?!?! Finally, Alvarez! McCutchen OMG! Astros: SOOO BAD OH NO! OH NOOOO! Cubs: ...well, they've been talked about most (3 topics) despite their most non-descript season of the past few decades, so don't talk about the Cubs. Brewers: Also a baseball team! -The most talked about teams- Yankees - 6 Orioles - 5 (+1 proposed-but-not-talked-about topic, from the old pre-episode#4 format) Angels - 5 Rangers - 5 DET/NYM/OAK/PHI/SFG/WSN - 4 All this being said, I don't actually think you guys should make any sort of concerted effort to make sure you cover every team equally, and, of course: SSS. And I do LOVE the podcast, and in particular your abilities to hone in on interesting and often under-reported stories, or at least present refreshingly reasoned perspectives on the bigger stories, so I don't actually want you guys to change the way you do things. But I'm also a whiny fan of a particular team and therefore you are both jerks.

 
gweedoh565
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Just postulating here: maybe it was because the A's beat a better opponent (the Angels) than the Rangers (Indians).

Sep 12, 2012 1:42 PM on Wednesday, September 12
 
gweedoh565
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"Vernon Wells is earning just shy of $49 million per WARP." My favorite stat.

 
gweedoh565
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Absolutely; I totally agree with this.

 
gweedoh565
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This is really what is so bothersome to those who disagree with the shutdown: the data and evidence for innings limits or pitch count limits reducing injuries just isn't convincing (the publicly available data, at least- it is absolutely likely that the Nats have done a LOT of research on the topic). Recall the rash of relievers who went down with injuries at the beginning of the season- that certainly could NOT have been due to high pitch counts/innings. On the other hand, I guess perhaps the ONLY thing we know is that pitching puts stress on the arm and therefore pitching any amount at all increases risk for injury. Which circles back to the Jeter diving in the stands argument...

 
gweedoh565
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Ouch.

Sep 06, 2012 12:07 PM on Home Runs at Home
 
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Cool stuff, Sam... I wonder also if there could be a minute effect on runs scored per game BY the Rockies since they probably have been giving ever-so-slightly more at-bats to pinch hitters instead of pitchers as a result of removing their starters earlier...

 
gweedoh565
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*to opine

Sep 04, 2012 8:14 AM on Changing of the Guard
 
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Thanks Ben and Joe for being receptive to reader input. I'd just like to take the opportunity opine that my favorite contributions of Kevin's were the Monday Ten Packs and the Minor League box score updates (the latter of which I have been sad to see become less frequent this season, presumably due to Kevin's increasingly heavy workload). And the Top 11's and Top 101, of course, are essentials. Looking forward to seeing what you guys have in store!

Sep 04, 2012 8:14 AM on Changing of the Guard
 
gweedoh565
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Hey! The Reds have FINALLY passed the Cardinals according to HLF. That's something.

Sep 04, 2012 7:58 AM on Tuesday, September 4
 
gweedoh565
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Stephen A. Smith.

Aug 29, 2012 10:14 AM on Wednesday, August 29
 
gweedoh565
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"Cotton Eyed Joe is a great tune" WUT. Make your case, sir!

 
gweedoh565
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In addition to the the small sample sizes, I suspect another element that makes bullpens so inconsistent from year-to-year is the relatively high turnover of members.

 
gweedoh565
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And Sam Crawford would be the decuple king!

Aug 21, 2012 9:05 AM on Baseball and Base 3
 
gweedoh565
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I would also like to know what rolling the Angels entails. Sounds like a fancy euphemism for smoking PCP to me.

 
gweedoh565
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Math.

Aug 20, 2012 9:47 AM on Monday, August 20
 
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I don't think this is a totally unreasonable concern, but I do disagree with the notion that one cannot wear two (or more) hats and look good in them all. I doubt that an advice column for the blog would in any way overshadow Jason's contributions on the prospect side of things, which have continued to be extremely strong even with occasional (and appreciated, from my end) forays into the more creative avenues for info-tainment.

 
gweedoh565
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Kenny Rogers would make a nice addition to the rotation.

 
gweedoh565
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What? That makes zero sense. Put the fastest guy in baseball on base automatically? What? I...what? Unless you bean him really really hard in the foot. Ok. That would make sense.

Aug 14, 2012 12:50 PM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
gweedoh565
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I just love the disgust in the announcer's voice at the end: "...and one of the worst plays you'll ever see... ...I mean you got guys hurt because they ran into each other..."

 
gweedoh565
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Agreed, it seems that no one has noticed they currently have the best record in baseball (!).

Aug 01, 2012 6:43 AM on Wednesday, August 1
 
gweedoh565
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Totally irrelevant, but I love the italian month abbreviations in the charts. Gives the article an exotic flair.

 
gweedoh565
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gweedoh565
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I really enjoyed this, Russell, and kudos for clear and concise explanation of advanced statistics. How about a series on sabr-myth busting?

Jul 24, 2012 9:30 AM on It Happens Every May
 
gweedoh565
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Minor correction: for the Reds call, that is not Thom's father, Marty, but Chris Welsh uttering "Ohhhh baby" in the background. Regardless, creepy.

 
gweedoh565
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Mostly great, Ben! BUT: "Slugging .376"; not five syllables

 
gweedoh565
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I think the message here is that the Nielsen ratings need a Ratings Above Replacement stat to normalize across eras.

 
gweedoh565
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This is a pretty unnecessary attack on KG, I think- he was simply reporting what he was told from multiple sources "inside" the game. And how is it that 3 months of good public behavior means that a consensus opinion of Harper 1-2 years ago is inaccurate? Harper is maturing (as you say); no one can or should take anything away from what he's done or how he's presented himself thus far. That doesn't mean he wasn't actually a jerk a few years ago.

 
gweedoh565
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thanks for the correction, fellas... I should know better than to post around here without first doing my research!

Jul 10, 2012 1:11 PM on Tuesday, July 10
 
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I don't think this has been mentioned yet, but a third issue with the proposed derby-participant-from-home-team requirement would be that, currently, all derby participants must also be All-Stars. Since there is no guarantee that a home team non-pitcher All-Star will even be available to hit in the derby in some years, how can this requirement be fulfilled? And that is the most I ever want to think about All-Star/HR Derby roster construction for the rest of time.

Jul 10, 2012 9:29 AM on Tuesday, July 10
 
gweedoh565
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I agree- isn't "upside", by definition the BEST (or at least 90th percentile) outcome one could expect? In that case, who's to say Youkilis won't pull a Lance Berkman and suddenly rediscover is stroke/approach? If his upside is what he is capable of doing, that is HUGE.

Jun 25, 2012 6:26 AM on Youkilis Changes Sox
 
gweedoh565
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re: Cardinals comment - what is this, 1787? Racists. (tongue-in-cheek)

Jun 20, 2012 8:46 AM on Wednesday, June 20
 
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Very cool analysis, Dan- I'd be interested in seeing the mean and range in pitch speeds by count as well...

 
gweedoh565
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Felix Pie Brandon Larson Kosuke Fukudome

 
gweedoh565
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You know, I kept putting off reading this today, thinking "pffffffff- an article about the Hairston's? This can wait. Gimme some stats about how great Joey Votto is". It should not have waited; this is the most hilarious thing I've read since Sam's article about watching the worst game of 2011: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16041 :)

 
gweedoh565
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Not just two Alex Gonzalez's, but two slick-fielding, poor-hitting, middle-infielder Alex Gonzalez's.

 
gweedoh565
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Bronson Arroyo's 2011 fastball?

 
gweedoh565
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That said, my favorite quote from Ball Four is: "Baseball is an ass."

 
gweedoh565
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Ball Four may be one of my favorite books - baseball or otherwise - of all time. Not only does it 'pull back the curtain' on major leaguers and the psyche of a player as he navigates successes and failures, but it is hilarious, and Bouton is incredibly insightful, candid, and unabashed in his musings (to the somewhat amusing annoyance of his teammates, both then and, of course, after the book was published). It's basically a direct pipeline of stories about the majors through the filter of a baseball geek with a deep passion for the game.

 
gweedoh565
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Really interesting discussion- I agree with you Derek, that data with partial accuracy is better than no data at all. And I'm guessing you'd be hard pressed to find even a scout who would call scouting a "hard science". When you go on Pat's show, I'd be interested to hear what he thinks about defensive metrics... Is there any defensive metric (advanced or not) that does NOT have some subjective element? Is not, does that make them all worthless?

May 24, 2012 6:31 AM on Is Scouting All Bad?
 
gweedoh565
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Brilliant!

May 23, 2012 7:51 AM on 2012 Baseball Upfronts
 
gweedoh565
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Ha, scalpers. I KNEW something was amiss when he actually "paid" you face value for the tickets. I once bought a scalped ticket for a Cards game in St. Louis. The guy showed me the ticket- about $25 face value- before agreeing to take $20 for it. When I got to the turnstile, the ticket wouldn't scan. Upon closer inspection, I saw that it was for the game the NEXT DAY. I was annoyed, but I remembered that he had showed me the ticket before selling, so it was really on me for not checking the date. Sneaky dudes, they be.

 
gweedoh565
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WHY HASN'T ANYONE EVER THOUGHT OF USING DUCKS AS DH'S BEFORE THIS???

May 18, 2012 1:25 PM on Friday, May 18
 
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Kevin, have you seen/heard anything to explain Gary Brown's struggles so far this year?

 
gweedoh565
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If there is a corollary for pitchers (i.e., needing to learn the new league's batters), then we probably wouldn't see any noticeable difference in interleague play.

 
gweedoh565
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I agree that stating that Lawrie threw his helmet at Miller's foot is incorrect, BUT reread the sentence referencing DY's suspension- Daniel is not calling for a similar suspension, simply referencing it as something the league MIGHT compare the incident to.

May 16, 2012 6:30 AM on Wednesday, May 16
 
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I agree as well. As a few commenters have noted before, users can sort by any column they wish, but I agree that the default sort order would be better if it was by team/date on DL.

May 11, 2012 7:36 AM on Friday, May 11
 
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like

May 10, 2012 7:27 AM on Miguel Tejada Did It
 
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Wicked.

May 09, 2012 12:38 PM on In Bunches
 
gweedoh565
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I'm genuinely curious about this, as I have not followed Pujols closely: Is there actually any real reason/evidence to suggest that he is actually 2-4 years older than he is listed? I mean, aside from the fact that age-fixing was pretty common around the time he came up?

May 08, 2012 10:46 AM on Splat Albert
 
gweedoh565
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Jebus, Tim, you have 5 posts arguing against a position KG isn't even taking. You're saying he's probably not a star; KG is saying that he is interesting. That's all there is to see here. Rein it in.

May 07, 2012 2:11 PM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
gweedoh565
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Excellent thorough work as usual, Corey. How about organizing the Additions/Subtractions section by league, division, and/or team?

May 07, 2012 1:47 PM on Monday, May 7
 
gweedoh565
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Count this as a 1 for 1 in Adam's daily record.

 
gweedoh565
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gweedoh565
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I agree- some sort of organization would make it much more readable: perhaps keep separate the players whose statuses were updated in the last week or so?

 
gweedoh565
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That stuff's icing on the cake ;)

Apr 18, 2012 12:26 PM on Doing Lines
 
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I AM NOT KEVIN, but: I mean, it obviously all depends on where you draw the line. For instance, draw it at ~4 WARP per season, and only Verlander, Halladay, Lee, Kershaw, and Sabathia would qualify. Gallardo, Hamels, Cain, Price, and Felix have never exceeded that mark. Greinke, Lincecum, and Lester haven't done it since 2009.

Apr 18, 2012 12:10 PM on 2011 Draft Class
 
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Stuff like this is why I started loving baseball.

Apr 18, 2012 6:58 AM on Doing Lines
 
gweedoh565
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I enjoyed this- very interesting, even w/ nothing concrete to conclude! Do you know (or can someone do the research on) the extent to which a pitcher's rubber placement is variable? i.e., are there pitchers that move around a lot within one game or do they tend to stay consistent throughout a game/season?

Apr 17, 2012 2:06 PM on Occam's Rubber
 
gweedoh565
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In the last year of old Yankee stadium I was in the outfield bleachers for a game against the Reds, for whom Corey Patterson was then the CF. Patterson, being terrible, was the recipient of relentless hecklings. "Hey Corey, what are you hitting, 200?" At this, Patterson turned around, smiled, raised his hands, and flashed 1 finger, then 9, then another 9. The crowd cheered, and I've been a fan of his person (though not his playing ability) ever since.

Apr 09, 2012 12:47 PM on Monday, April 9
 
gweedoh565
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I would like to read a collection of Sam's made-up Robert Frost poetry.

Apr 06, 2012 1:09 PM on The Pacers
 
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I think "I don't like the Cubs, but..." could be the new "...although I have once been beaned during a baseball game." I don't like the Cubs, but Opening Day was glorious.

 
gweedoh565
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Seriously, though- solid analysis, Daniel. While Ludwick is in the Opening Day lineup, I do think it is inaccurate to say that is in the "regular" lineup. Dusty bases many of his lineup decisions on historic batter-v-pitcher match-ups, and this is reportedly another one of those cases, where he doesn't like Heisey vs. Buehrle: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/04/04/opening-day-lineup Here's hoping Heisey starts out strong enough to grab hold of the starting slot.

Apr 05, 2012 9:23 AM on Thursday, April 5
 
gweedoh565
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[INSERT SEVEN THOUSAND COMMENTS ABOUT DUSTY BAKER FAVORING VETERANS]

Apr 05, 2012 9:15 AM on Thursday, April 5
 
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Apr 05, 2012 9:14 AM on Thursday, April 5
 
gweedoh565
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oh yeah, "during the 1990s"... missed that part. Derp.

Apr 04, 2012 4:45 PM on The War on Opening Day
 
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Perhaps it was because of this transformation from Opening Day to Opening Week that, while you remember so well Tuffy Rhodes' achievement, you totally forgot about the illustrious Dmitri Young's 3-homerun Opening Day for the Tigers in 2005: http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Dmitri_Young_hits_three_home_runs_in_Tigers%27_opener

Apr 04, 2012 8:46 AM on The War on Opening Day
 
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From: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=432&position=1B Helton's value from 2002-2011: $132 million Helton's earnings from 2002-2011: $144 million That's not too shabby.

Apr 03, 2012 5:40 PM on 12 Years For Joey Votto
 
gweedoh565
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The Bachelor so needs to have Jason as The Bachelor.

 
gweedoh565
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Sigh, yeah, it's unfortunate, but it does actually make some sense in the short-term considering that (a) the rotation still has 5 serviceable arms and (b) the bullpen is hurting from injuries to Ryan Madson and Nick Masset. Dusty is at least still saying that he will be a starter, and I get the impression that Chapman is the first in line when the inevitable injury to one of the starting 5 occurs.

 
gweedoh565
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VERDUCCI EFFECT IT WAS THE VERDUCCI EFFECT

 
gweedoh565
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Fair enough. But I'd still argue that giving a veteran the Opening Day nod, then replacing him with a youngster within a week does not constitute an egregious favoring of a vet.

Mar 28, 2012 8:29 AM on Building Benches Faster
 
gweedoh565
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The Scott Hatteberg vs. Joey Votto argument doesn't hold up. Votto was a September call-up in 2007, and pretty much was instantly given the starting job. Hatteberg hung around on the bench in 2008 (61 PA), but was by zero means in consideration as the starter. Now Corey Patterson as RedsManRick mentions below, that's a great example that I had forgotten about. An rotten log would have played better than he did.

Mar 28, 2012 8:08 AM on Building Benches Faster
 
gweedoh565
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Also, check out this nice piece by John Perrotto in which Dusty explains his (over)use of veterans in SF/Chicago (the basic argument he makes is that there was lots of pressure to win immediately, which was not conducive to dealing with growing pains of youngsters: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8606

Mar 28, 2012 7:46 AM on Building Benches Faster
 
gweedoh565
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I see your point, but in reality there is no reason to think that the age of bench players has anything to do with the age of starters. That's kind of like saying: "Since all of the bench players are men, we'd expect all the starters to be women". As a Reds fan, I've never ever seen evidence of the Dusty-loves-veterans idea. He may have earned it in SF and Chicago, but I can't think of an instance in Cincinnati when he's egregiously favored a veteran over a promising younger player... although that would change if he favors Ryan Ludwick over Chris Heisey in battle for left field this year.

Mar 28, 2012 7:38 AM on Building Benches Faster
 
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They're all so great! I love the "Mad Men" - the contrast b/t the music and visual spectacle is marvelously bizarre... add in that's what would be seen/heard after a home run is hit and we're on the next level, friends.

Mar 27, 2012 7:17 AM on Miami's Sound Test
 
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Team Bert may be better off playing Pujols at both 1B and 3B.

 
gweedoh565
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+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1

Mar 22, 2012 1:05 PM on Baseball Is My Stereo
 
gweedoh565
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Curious the Citizen's Bank Park had such a low HR factor last season. Maybe this is a stupid question, because I don't know how park factors are calculated, but could that have anything to do with the Phillies' insanely good starting rotation? i.e., good SPs = fewer homers allowed = makes the park look hard to hit a homerun in.

 
gweedoh565
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Good stuff, RJ.

 
gweedoh565
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Sounds like the perfect intern job, if you ask me. ;)

 
gweedoh565
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Hey Ben, are there any plans for the return of the "This Weeks in Quotes" column?

 
gweedoh565
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gweedoh565
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Hahaha, awesome. It would be a victory for mankind if the Rockies field that lineup.

 
gweedoh565
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Indeed, they have a 4-part series on the subject: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/search?q=%22Baseball+for+Dummies%22

 
gweedoh565
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Any plans for the return of the "This Week in Quotes" column with John Erhardt back in the fold? That was always one of my favorite features... even if only for the humorous category sub-headings...

 
gweedoh565
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I gotta say I'm really glad Steve Goldman did not take ALL of BP's knowledge of baseball history with him when he left. Love these pieces. Thanks, Larry!

 
gweedoh565
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"it's better to watch people do what they do best, than what they do worst" Fans of "The Room" will disagree.

 
gweedoh565
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Well said, Bill. I'll add that Jay says "Less of this, please", referring to poor pitchers-as-batters performance, but I ask: Why? How does it decrease the fun/enjoyment of a baseball game to watch someone be totally overmatched every ninth batter? It's a David-vs-Goliath story 4-5 times a game! And what's more exciting than a pitcher actually hitting a homerun in that situation? The most memorable part of a Mets game I saw in their last year at Shea was Felix Hernandez cranking a grand slam off of Johan Santana. If it weren't for that, I would have remember absolutely nothing about that game.

 
gweedoh565
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This is the last thing I expected out of a Yu Darvish review, which is partly why it is so great. It is also so great because it is great.

 
gweedoh565
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Thanks for the reply, Dave- I was asking for a friend ;) but I'll pass on the info!

 
gweedoh565
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What about for the millions of poor English majors who have graduated but still don't have jobs? Do you have any resume-padding opportunities for them?

 
gweedoh565
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Hey Mike- I read somewhere that Ryan Raburn may end up platooning (I forget with whom). Do you have any info about that? Thanks!

 
gweedoh565
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* "age 27"

 
gweedoh565
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To answer my own question, looking at BR's "Similar batters through age 17" scores: Tony Lazzeri had a similar peak ages 23-25 (~140 OPS+), dropped off two years (~119 OPS+), and came back nearly to his previous level (~130 OPS+) for a few years. Joe Torre, had a peak 23-25 (~145 OPS+), returned to earth for three years (~125 OPS+), and then had an insane 171 in his age 30 1971 season.

 
gweedoh565
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*unnecessary question mark

 
gweedoh565
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Hanley is a really interesting case- I'm curious if anyone can think of any historic comps for his recent performance. i.e., elite combination of power/speed/average for a string of 3-4 years followed by two consecutive years of performance drop-off (injury related or otherwise) DURING his theoretical prime. This would help to get an idea of the chances he ever returns to his age 23-25 performance levels?

 
gweedoh565
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gweedoh565
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Very interesting stuff! Nicely done, Eriq.

 
gweedoh565
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In this sense, it's very similar to the Chapman signing by the Reds. As a loyal Reds fan, I was approaching the 2010 season with a decades-worth of frustration and disillusionment, all of which was shattered when the Reds went out on a limb to get Chapman. When ownership shows they care, fans take notice.

 
gweedoh565
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Awesome.

 
gweedoh565
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haha, whoops... that should be: "little-things"

 
gweedoh565
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For whatever it's worth, Juan Castro stuck around not because he was a 'little-thing' or a 'clubhouse' guy, but because, according to those judging defense solely via the eye-ball test, he was as a defensive wizard. "Manos de oro" (hands of gold) was his nickname.

 
gweedoh565
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This gets me very curious about advanced scouting- it occurs to me that teams the 'overperform' may do so due to really good advance scouting reports and effective application of said reports(as opposed to, say, a really good coaching). KG, to your knowledge, how much variability is there in quality of advance scouting among different teams? And what goes into it? Do scouts look at how future opponents perform just in the few weeks preceding a series or further back in time? Might be a good podcast topic!

Jan 11, 2012 10:56 AM on Do Quad-A Players Exist?
 
gweedoh565
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BP: now for English majors! (math majors still welcome)

 
gweedoh565
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Amazing that anyone could overlook Bartolo Colon I CAN SEE HIM FROM HERE* *because he is fat lolololol

Jan 03, 2012 7:41 AM on The Three We Missed
 
gweedoh565
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This is just great.

 
gweedoh565
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Hahhahahahahahahaahha. Wonderful. I'd never heard of "Igor" as a nickname, but I'll always remember it now. Mission accomplished. HoF what?

 
gweedoh565
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Good point- I love Marty, but boy does he despise strikeouts. Stubbs now gets the same treatment, unfortunately.

 
gweedoh565
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BP staff, pls make WORP data available thx.

 
gweedoh565
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I posit that there's an error in the premise of this article: "fun to watch" and "fun to root for" are two very different and in some cases very opposite things. As a Reds fan, I (along with every single other person in Cincinnati) found Adam Dunn and Wily Mo (and I'd imagine any other three-true-outcome type) very very fun to root for, but usually very very painful to watch. Strikeouts for batters may be way overrated in terms of their statistical negative value, but they are still really painful to watch. Add to that piss-poor defense. By the time Dunn was traded, despite his incredible consistency and historic power, he was, ridiculously, reviled by Reds fans. I didn't share in the vitriol, but the strikeouts mostly definitely wore down the love.

 
gweedoh565
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Awesome stuff. I think it is important to make clear that what makes this phenomenon so striking is that it occurs among differently aged players at the SAME experience level (i.e., as high school seniors, with (almost) everyone having the same number of years of baseball experience under their belts). If, for instance, high school juniors were also eligible for the draft, then the best players would tend to get drafted in their junior years; thus we would of course expect the younger draftees to have more value over the course of their careers than the older draftees. However, only high school seniors are eligible, so the only players who would violate this assumption would be either older high schoolers who may have been held back (Rany cuts off at 21 and up, but maybe he should try cutting off at 20), and on the other end, someone like Bryce Harper who effectively jump-started his draft eligibility by a year.

 
gweedoh565
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Ah, Colin, so psyched to see "Right Field" on this list! I, too, repeatedly watched that TMNT VHS with the Pizza Hut commercial prelude and always loved the presentation of that song. Makes a grown man tear up.

 
gweedoh565
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And I should clarify as well- I certainly am not attempting to exonerate Cueto- I don't think the fine/suspension was undeserved at all. I just think Will was being a overly harsh in calling it "criminal" and looking at in a completely black-and-white manner ("There's just no way to make this right").

 
gweedoh565
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My point is that when someone is in what is perceived as a life-threatening situation, any sense of "knowlingly" doing anything goes out the window in favor of survival instincts. As someone who deals with panic attacks, I know that when one feels threatened, your mind/body can react in a way that completely defies logic/decorum. That said, I obviously don't know what was going on in Cueto's mind at the time, but his drastic actions certainly suggest he wasn't acting with a clear head.

 
gweedoh565
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Come on, Will, NO excuses for Cueto? The guy was backed up against a brick wall with a crowd surging on him. People do a lot of desperate things when cornered. No doubt it's incredibly unfortunate what happened to LaRue as a result, but I think it's more fair to chalk it up to a bizarre situation rather than one man's intent to harm.

 
gweedoh565
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Hahaha, this reads like an Onion article. Fantastic. BUT Bautista's premise is partially flawed: does he not recall the management's heroic move to acquire Matt Morris at the trade deadline? Alas, if there were only 4 other Matt Morrae available...

Aug 26, 2010 10:58 AM on Hindsight is 81-81
 
gweedoh565
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Does anyone else think that Bill James' uncharacteristically illogical comment re: the value of shifts was a ploy to help out his employer by convincing opposing teams NOT to put on the shift against Ortiz? It's clearly the only reasonable explanation.

Jun 23, 2010 5:49 AM on The Way They Drew It Up
 
gweedoh565
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Chapman's game was made a ton better by the free swinging Mud Hens: in the previous two games, Travis Wood struck out 9 in 4 innings and Matt Maloney struck out 8 in 5.2 innings. I was at Chapman's game and he may have only walked one, but he still threw a lot of balls that were WAY outside the strike zone.

Apr 13, 2010 7:30 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
gweedoh565
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Another thought: 20 starts by Volquez is probably unrealistic since he isn't expected to be back until August.

Jan 29, 2010 9:05 AM on November 7-13
 
gweedoh565
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Hilariously, Palmiero won the Edgar Martinez Outstanding DH Award the same year he won a Gold Glove.

 
gweedoh565
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The sub-title alone makes this article worth reading.

Jan 25, 2010 9:08 AM on Vortices of Suck