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Excellent analysis. My thoughts exactly. Those who don't wish to select Trout within the first couple of picks or spend high $$ on him are missing the point in my opinion; Trout will most likely regress, but his floor is higher than almost any other player in the league due to his speed.
I'd rather have Trout's 20HR and 45SB with a good possibility for more than, say, Votto's 30HR and 100RBI.
Wow- after looking at Kershaw's pitch percentages over the years these are great points.
Thanks for the feedback and aces on the rankings this year.
I wonder though if the same thing could have been said about Kershaw when he first broke into the league. He sported a 4.79BB/9 rate in his first full season and has dropped it to under 2.5 that past two years. It would seem Moore still has the potential to be an ace, although I understand the higher probability is that he settles in as a 2/3.
"It's likely that Santana could pitch the opener (assuming that there are no setbacks), if they can keep him on a hard innings limit and curtail his use of the slider. Whether he could still be effective remains to be seen."
Do you mean effective for the opener or effective for the length of the season?
Based off of his 2008 numbers of .176 BAA, 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 12K in 14 innings, I think it will be pretty hard for him to improve upon those numbers.