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Thoughts on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59021">Hernan Perez</a></span>?
Wow, crazy! <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108855">Bobby Dalbec</a></span> fell to the fourth round. About 8 months ago he looked like a top ten/15 pick.
No Bobby Dalbec?
Ben Gamel related to Matt Gamel?
I have Machado in a yahoo keeper league where he has SS eligibility.
It's good to own land.
Just traded <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45536">Felix Hernandez</a></span> for Quintana and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31724">Hanley Ramirez</a></span> in my AL only league.
What about Petit on <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SF" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SF'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SF</span></a>?
I hope Bonds takes at least 50 million from MLB.
Thing of note in last night's Seattle game. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a></span> who is usually pitched earlier in games was saved until the end in a close game. While Farquar also gave up runs.
Any chance we could get an early release of this article on Sunday when it seems to be most free agent bids are due?
If Rusney Castillo starts in the minors, who is a better minor league draft choice between him and Moncada?
You seem very high on Blackmon in mixed leagues.
Pomeranz has no comparison! He is one of a kind!
I thought Rodon if he gets called up in September, but they keep him down till mid next year they don't lose the extra year?
trade probability: Vogelbach+Almora+ minor pieces for good pitcher enough? better or worse package than the samardja deal
Better question: who is most likely going to be left out of the Cubs starting lineup in a year or two that will likely be traded?
With regard to no waivers, how do no trade clauses work? Can you place someone on unrevocable waiver if they have a no trade clause?
I completely agree with this article's premise that Amaro is awful, but not a=in any way with the Lee, Halladay, & Hamels signings. They are all special kind of pitchers so it is ok to bend the rules. I mean when you get way below market value on signing ace pitchers it would be stupid if you he didn't make those deals.
I agree that the Papelbon signing was really bad, but wasn't there something about how the owner really wanted Papelbon and went against Amaro's wishes? Don't get me wrong, I think Amaro is a horrible GM, but you can't fault the man for moves anyone else in the league would/should have done and arguably worked out on all of them.
I'd like to know more about your thoughts on Liriano.
With all cantata playing well at the major league level, you would have thought the cubs might move Baez to third to move up to the spot Plt is holding down with his .140 average.
WHat about Tapia who wasn't even a top 100 prospect
I have to say you guys did great in your preseason fantasy prospects giving Raimel Tapia one of the largest upsides while not including him in the top 100 list. Drafted him with the last pick in the minor league draft.
Where would Tapia rank on prospect lists now?
Does this make sense for the other person who needs hitting also?
Would like to hear your thoughts on a trade. In a keeper league 12 team NL only I am at near the cap and would have Josh Rutledge on my bench so I trade him @ $18 to someone for $1 Broxton. Both teams going for it. The other team has plenty of cap room.
Would like to hear your thoughts on a trade. In a keeper league I am at near the cap and would have Josh Rutledge on my bench so I trade him @ $18 to someone for $1 Broxton. Thoughts?
mixed league, 12 teams only 9 hitters.
Should I offer Adam Jones for prince fielder?
Should I keep Corey Dickerson in a 12 team NL only at $13 with a decent amount of inflation?
Think you are very low on Medlen. Would rather have a guy that has posted some terrific numbers and is relatively still pretty young than some of the prospects you have above him.
Over an eight-year period, the Mariners led all of baseball in TV ratings every year
This is very misleading isn't it? Didn't they have this because of Ichiro & all the people watching Seattle from Japan?
Would you rather sign a guy to 2 years 12 million or 3 years 15?
He is just saying how can he be left out of the top 5, not saying he should be #1.
is mondesi a top 10 prospect now?
Fastest man North of Havana.
What about The Hawk's TWTW, Can't measure that with your sabermatronics! The will to win is what every ball club needs!
what about raul mondesi V?
Papelbon to detroit?
Olt has some eye problems and might get lasik or new contacts, kind of like freeman last year
No Dan Hudson?
Thoughts on the Astros manager benching JD Martinez for swining at a high 80s fastball the other day?
kelly Johnson or Omar infante?
No nod to Desheilds in speed?
Wow! That's harsh on Medlen.
We are talking about a pitcher who might not even have a spot to start for a guy who hit over 30 home runs last year. Don't see that as being that bad for the Tigers. Obviously near all his salary would need to be picked up, but Soriano's can still hit and is a large improvement over Dirks.
I feel like Porcello would be a great target for the Cubs, giving up Soriano+ lots of salary.
I hear that the reason you don't see younger knuckle ballers is because it takes so long to build up the muscles to throw an effective Knuckle ball.
I have him as a minor leaguer from 2011, and would be so happy if he makes the team, but god are the Rockies really that stupid?!?!?! They are trading one month for one year & it is not even like they don't have decent alternatives.
***Also Is there a possible trade of Nelson or Pacheco to the dodgers for one of their extra starters?
Odds Arenado makes the team with them keeping him in camp this long?
You think the Rockies front office is stupid enough to let Arenado make the team like with Belt and the Giants two years ago?
Not for now, but during the season I think the best would be by level then alphabetical within. Also any chance D'arnud could make the team?
Thanks for the response. The depth of the league is 14 playable hitter per team. Not sure if that was deep enough. But in terms of total dollar value, it is within a few dollars per your valuation & HQs valuations also.
What do you think of this proposal. 12 team mixed league and i have 5 good corner infielders so i'm looking to trade one. He has Alvarez at third and said he was looking to upgrade
Thought this was an incredibly fair offer, but he thought it was ridiculous.
I'm not saying $10-12 yet, because even with a suspension it might only knock Braun down 11-14. But maybe a few bucks lower to be risk averse. I understand the skepticism, but the guy was right before & should be given at least a little notice. At worst I think that it should at least get a mention on the possibility, give people the info, & let them decide if they will let it affect their bids.
Have you heard the PED rumor going around out there by the guy who broke the Melky Cabrera suspension? Would this uncertainty affect your bids?
And now he will end up on every one of my fantasy teams.
It's more of a mental thing. I remember reading something about the new dimensions & it would of caused like less than 20 more home runs in a whole season.
Who the hell is Erasmo Ramirez?
Bret just saw your reply above where you did this on your blog and completely agree with your assessment of Brown. He had a really bad two months, but rebounded very nicely the rest of the way. Is it possible that he had a hidden injury. Also I feel that the second half should be given even more weight. "If" they figured him out in the first two months, it shows he was able adjust which the inability to adjust is maybe the biggest reason why most prospects don't make it in the majors.
What about Gary Brown? Know you guys were down on him for top 100 prospects, but seems he has clear & quick path to majors. Has speed at least some avg and maybe will even hit a few dingers.
How far off is Kaleb Cowart?
Now do you consider defense in terms of how much it could accelerate their path to the majors/help them keep their jobs? Because I feel that would have fantasy relevance. Like Gary Brown's defense could expedite his path especially bc of the lack of depth in left field for the giants.
I didn't realize Marlon Byrd was catcher eligible in NL Only leagues?!?! lol
Yea, but relative to talent they may never have been made it to the major leagues. That might have been the boost they needed.
No more Brett Jackson? lol
There is even evidence that steroids can help improve your eyesight which might be even more valuable than the added strength.
Well you sir are an idiot if you believe PEDs don't help performance.
Really? you think that was market rate? I would put him in the same class as a guy like Joe Saunders. Or maybe sign a cheaper more upside guy in Scott Baker or many of the pitchers listed above. Would much rather have a guy like Brandon McCarthy who is much better and cheaper. The guys competing for the 4th/5th slots are prob very similar pitchers, but are cheaper, younger, and have more upside. I would not be surprised if Guthrie does not have a single season below a 4.00 era.
Or the Royals trading for and paying Ervin Santana 11 million.
What about the Royals signing Guthrie for 25 million?
What about Brett Jackson?
21. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins
Scouting Report (most recent): Link
2012 Ranking: 12
22. Addison Russell, SS, Athletics
Scouting Report (most recent): Link
2012 Ranking: N/A
4X4 so a lot of value taken out of him not being able to provide good value in runs, but I def agree with you in a 5X5. *Also keeper/dump league
I forgot I had looked at this before. lol Bradley might be closer, but he doesn't have any great or even pretty good skills fantasy wise. In the top 10 it says about Bradley,"most likely a single-digit home run threat" & "could steal some bases despite average speed" Seems very little upside so I'm inclined to pick Cowart.
Thanks for the replies! Not trying to argue, but really enjoy the discussion because, I was thinking about trading for the pick behind me in my minor league draft.
Hmm really?! I was thinking it was almost the exact opposite because of the lack of third base presence in LAA so if Cowart plays well he could push himself up there this year. Where in BOS it feels like there are so many OFs, he would not only have to play really well, but also hope for an opening. Is Bradley a good reason not to sign Ellsbury long term?
And there are a million catchers to draft this year.
Fantasy AL only keeper league
Who do you take:
Yea, people were saying he might be an absolute stud. What I don't understand is that after the increase in level he struggled a lot the first couple of months, but then played really well the rest of the year. It feels like his first month or two should be discounted a little because he was able to make the adjustments. Seems a little much to go from #18 to off the list for a decent overall season.
No Brett Jackson?
How much does this change in 4x4 leagues?
Why is Leonys Martin not considered a prospect?
"Bonds is the easiest person to pitch to. You just walk him"- Greg Maddux
Marco Estrada, $10 12 team NL only. Keeper? Moderate inflation.
My thing against Dunn is that there really isn't too much value in him at $4. He was only worth $11 last year and the power could easily dip again. While his perceived value may be higher bc of his homers he really isn't worth all that much with the low average and lack of steals and could very well hurt your team & that was why my position on a decently priced Miggy, especially in keeper leagues, could be a better keeper. But you would be able to trade Dunn for a bunch to those power gobblers out.
Only problem with Sale is he might get hurt, but the upside is huge & he won't hurt you.
But with that same inflation Sale goes for $25+, so the extra money You save on Sale offsets the pay increase you have to pay for Verlander.
Clearly Sale at $5.
Prob Dunn at $4
Thanks for the input. Also have Kimbrel at $15 and Parnell at $1 option year, so had a lot of saves already.
Do you think its worth bumping Parnell to $6 for the extra year? Pretty good inflation in the league and heard that this offseason the Mets were not willing to part with him because they like him so much now. Also dump league so if he is closer midseason could prob get something good for him.
What about Starlin Castro?
In a 12 team NL only keeper league, I just traded a $9 2014 Sergio Romo for a $20 L2014 Starlin Castro. Thoughts?
I like betting team over/under s the best. Think there is a lot of edge if you find the right teams & dont bet every team.
They would be my second guess, but Tampa has too many great proven arms that they could trade away to a team with no pitching.
Giants would do that trade in a heartbeat, getting rid of Lincecum at 1 year $20 million, a Belt who doesnt look spectacular, Brian Wilson who will be getting a ton of money or be a free agent, 1 year of an average/underachieving Hunter Pence.
Giants instantly get better and even if Lincecum is great for the one year and Pence is good, the Giants come out way ahead in their future and dont lose that much on the season.
Yea I actually really like Ogando, and thought he should have started last year.
Fine Matt Moore instead of Hellickson,and I wouldnt call Hellickson bland, a kid who put up a 2.95 & 3.1 ERAs his first two years in the league in the AL East. Much rather have him than a Taijuan Walker who is only in double A and has never proven anything in the majors. The other three all look to be decent 2 if w/ downsides of being decent 3/4 pitchers. Wade Davis looked fantastic in the bullpen this year, and might become a lock down closer.
I would much rather this package than any mentioned above except for the maybe the Rangers, but the Angels would be giving up a ton for a reliever.
Think the Rays would be the clear favorite with all their MLB ready pitching. They could put together a package of Hellickson, (Cobb, Archer, or Neiman), & Wade Davis. Rays would do this in a second for a per Arb Stanton and their rotation doesn't even take a hit. Can't see Marlins getting this good of pitching from anyone else. Also makes Marlins immediately much better and looking much better for the future.
Who is Tatman?
It happens a lot where these guys blow through their ceiling and the opposite is true too. What do you think Maddux's ceiling was? Probably the smartest pitcher ever, not to mention one of the hardest working.
Almost all pitchers in the top 100 have the skills to become great, but the ones who seem to actually make it are the guys who are smart and know how to switch up location and types of pitches, and the guys who work hard, have watched tape on every batter they pitch against knowing the exact pitch they will throw a guy before he even comes to the plate. Will you base your rankings taking into affect the individuals brains & work ethic. Unless you have those two things it seems near impossible to succeed w/o an epic amount of talent.
I'm not sure if you we're trying to infer this, but Adam Dunn doesn't hit into double plays because he usually only does one of three things which wouldn't lead to a double play.
How could he be most overrated?
Michael, if Cabrera not sticking at third was your worst prediction, you must of had a great year in fantasy.
No Kris Medlen love?
I'm guessing this is a stupid debate. There is no way he is not first ballot. Let alone if he wants to play 2 maybe three more sub par years then he will have 3000 easy.
I would have included Sergio Romo. He's just been so good that with Wilson's option probably not getting picked up has a good shot at having the role.
Nolan Arenado could win 3b job in spring training, look for the comeback year in Coors if he makes the team.
It seems almost impossible that Bud Selig didn't tell the clubs that if they signed Bonds he was going to screw them over. The Rangers owner even made comments at the beginning of free agency how he would love to have Bonds then got shut the hell up real fast. I would like to know more of others opinions on this.
I'm just thinking of NFL replay. People still cheer whenever a a catch ortouchdown is ruled. Replay doesn't take away from the cheering, sometimes it will even create an extra cheer when you know it's official. If in baseball they use replay with 2 outs or bases empty then umps can make the more impact full ruling knowing they can overturn it like how refs in football are calling more touchdowns because they all get reviewed.
Is there any minor league player you would rather have over Billy Hamilton for fantasy keeper purposes? If the guy can come up and have a mediocre average he is going to be worth 40+ dollars.
Really??? Why is Millwood a sit?
They didn't want to start Rizzo's service time or make home a super two.
You also don't get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to run a Subway, and also get all winter off.
What do you think about a Grienke trade if the BrewCrew are out of it? For keeper leagues also, it feels like he would sign in the NL next year both because of the pressure seems less and he seems to really like batting. Opinions?
I love Longo in the second round, hat Phillips 4th round, mixed on Ellsbury but his downside is probably limited. Overall I think you drafted a nice team.
P.S. Drop The old guy who has thrown 500 innings the past two years. Even if he comes back his arm is going to fall off.
You are so wrong about Luebke!!!!!!!
Just kidding, but I do think he will be very good.
Also with a yeast that is that high. There would be noticeable physical changes to Braun & the fact that the commissioners office would not let him test the DNA. He argued the chain of custody because he can't win in an argument saying he didn't take it or that it wasn't his. This is how he had to argue to win & that is what he did.
The guy did have 103 stolen bases. Even as a pinch runner the guy might steal 40+ a year in the majors.
Michael Inoa still has unreal talent, but has been hurt. He's still incredibly young and still could potentially be a monster.
Shouldn't he be on here if only due to his upside of being an Ace?
I was all over saying Arenado was going to be a stud last year. Drafted him with the 5th pick of my minor league draft with many top 50 ranked players available.
So at what price would you consider him a keeper in an NL only league.
Also in a NL league with a lot of inflation?
That's true, but you will also have the PetCo effect that even with some regression should still make him a fairly valuable commodity even in NL only leagues.
Very interesting on Luebke, but weren't all his peripherals great last year to go along with his great stats. I also believe that his PetCo ERA was 4.04 which shows he wasn't a PetCo product. This might be the biggest difference I have seen between prospectus and HQ on a player. They have him as a $20 NL only player.
What about a $10 Bud Norris or
A $3 Charlie Morton in a 12 team NL only league with decent inflation?
What about Torres?
Will he be the starting CF?
Can someone explain to me why Wil Myers was a top prospect? He is a guy who wasn't going to end up as a catcher in the majors and he didn't seem to have a fantastic bat. Certainly not much power.
Nolan Arenado Baby!!!!!!!!! He is going to be great. Is he top 25 prospect going into the season next year?
Mitch Moreland $11 w/ OF eligibility
AL only $260 draft day
14 hitters 9 P
Is he a keeper at this price? How good of a keeper?
I have Tyler Colvin at $2 NL only 12 team league, any chance he is a keeper?
In the sense for this kind of article any chance we could get an article before the season next year called something like for 2013.
Some sort of article that points out players who are good targets in a keeper league for 2013.
Guys like Lucas Duda or Bonifacio, who have good ower and speed skills and if they get playing time could be worth a lot, along with preseason future closer picks.
This would be a great article to read and would help so much with drafting $1 guys in the end game.
I agree, forgot him.
If one of these guys gets two it will likely be more than Stras:
Carlos Zambrano (jk, but he is 10 time winner of the Carlos Zambrano award)
Even though they are old I would bet these guys still have a better chance at more Cy Youngs in the next 10 years than Stras:
And young guys?:
I know it was an exaggeration, but I feel like this is an interesting discussion/ranking.
Who is your biggest upside prospect given where he is rated in top prospect lists?
Michael Ynoa, any updates on his recovery, and since he is so young could you see him jump up and be a top prospect with one healthy season?
These myths may be more of myths at the college level, but at the high school level 1 & 3 are absolutely true. I have friends one who was a much better hitter and all state and hit homers off of guys who were drafted and got absolutley no interest drawn because he was 5'10 where my other friend who was an average hitter and built like a tank was told he could get drafted if he wanted to instead of playing college football. Scouts feel that taller guys can put on more muscle as they mature so to get noticed you need to not be just as good as the competition, but must leave no doubt in their production. This is the same with pitchers. Also with pitchers the radar gun is huge. This is proven in the fact that there are tons of position players that get drafted and immediately changed into pitchers because they can throw in the 90s.
Think you killed on trades 1 & 2. Really like trade 4, and don't really like 3, but since you need the steals it makes sense. Kind of hard to believe that people made these trades with you. They must be really bad.
But it is a comment used for guys who have not been able to do it in the majors. If he never had a chance to do it in the majors then he should be able to avoid that label.
how can you call him a AAAA when he has never recieved the chance?
Also where would you rank that Royals 1B prospect who is mashing in AAA with nowhere to go?
What's your take on Arenado?
And is there any progress in Westmoreland?
Billy Hamilton = pinch basestealer?
Pinch base stealer with 50+ steals?
Josh Beckett being left off this list is a sin.
Pretty sure Cano should be the starting/deserving second baseman.
And Paul Konerko should absolutely be on the allstar team
What I am really interested in is if you would create a top 25 prospect list as of now with all the graduations to the majors and changes given the performances so far this season. I know Keith Law just did it on ESPN and I would like to know what your thoughts were since I value your judgement of minor leaguers the most. Even if you didn't write a full article could you make a short list. Thanks
I was also curious about this. Adams is old while Gregorson is young. And Adams only has one more year on his contract. Adams could have more trade value than Heath Bell being a better pitcher with an extra year, but if they try to make him a closer for next year and he can't handle it then he might lose all trade value. Gregorson is at least young and they will have him for the next four years. I'd like to know HQ's perspective on this.
Well this doesn't beat Dusty Baker's philosophy of not liking walks because, "they just clog up the bases" Now that is the dumbest thing ever.
Am I missing something with Wil Myers. It just does not seem like he is an awesome hitter and should not be a top prospect. Is it bc he hit 37 doubles with 14 playing in the single A that they project as he get older that he will grow into a huge power hitter?
Even with the arm problems his ceiling is still incredibly high right?
Is Michael Ynoa going to pitch this year?
Sorry I meant to say what were his lines against the AL east the past two years. Not in general. And was he hurt when he played them. I was looking for the context of your sample size.
Also using that stat to your defense is a little ridiculous unless you knew that before you didn't take him. Also as you said before it is a small sample size. It is also out of context. What was his lines the past two years. Was he partly injured. What was the league average against teams in the AL east that aren't Toronto the past two years. What were his stats against Toronto in the park he will be playing at most. Even with your arguments I still think Davis should clearly be taken over Abreu. And I don't even dislike Abreu that much.
Abreu has hit 15,20,15,20 Hrs his past four years. He is now 37 and it is hard to see him getting more SBs than last year at 24. If he loses 1 or 2 mph on his swing, which is completely reasonable for a 37 year old, he could easily only hit 10HRs and bat 255 again. What's your upside with him? Batting 280 20 HRs 20 SB with 90 runs if he is healthy and plays great. Where his downside is probably another 250 season 10 HRs and 10 SBs. I personably think he will do somewhere in the middle and think he is a decent value pick. You mention his LD% fell to 17% would this not be a factor of age and possibly continue to decrease?
First off on Rajai Davis:
Do you really think Davis will bat below 280 or 270?
Do you think that small sample size really justifies arguing that being in the AL east will hurt him more than being out of Oakland?
There is not much downside with Rajai Davis, so he hits 270 with 5 HRs and 30 SBs. You will still get a pretty good player.
His upside(on the low end of the spectrum) is .290, 10 HRs, 90 runs, 50SB. This upside is also more likely to occur than Abreu's given the ages.
I think that saying Rajai Davis will have a .268 average is pretty ridiculous. He might not bat .290, but he batted 284 last year and 305 the year before and that's in an awful hitting stadium in an awful lineup. I don't think moving to Toronto is going to hurt.
Instead you took Bobby Abreu, who is a 36 year old coming off a season where he did hit .255.
"guys who I don't like for their spots like Hamilton...."
I'd like to know if I'm the only one who feels this way about this draft or if other people feel the same way.
I'm not going to lie. I'm a little disgusted with this draft. I think it is just awful to pick Tulo second. He had an unbelievable last month, but if you take away that and apply what he had done the past 2 years to that month, he comes out with a season that is more a late second round pick at best. When you post a month that is better than some of Bonds' best months that is not going to continue. Carl Crawford not being a top 6 pick by a panel of experts. Matt Holliday not going higher. He puts up great and consistent numbers while being one of the most reliable players health wise. Another guy off the top of my head is Rajai Davis going so late. A guy who will hit 290, steal 50 bases, hit 10 HRs, and score 100 runs going 184!!!!!! And Roy Halladay being a mid third round pick!!! I know there is a bias against pitchers in the first few rounds, but this guy is a $40 pitcher.
This is just from looking at it a little bit. I understand Utley wasn't hurt before you picked and I'm not going to argue guys who I like like for their spots like Hamilton, Wright and others because guys like that I feel could go either way. I do like a decent amount of your picks so I am not trying to put the blame on you specifically, Jason. I would just like to know you opinion on a few of my thoughts about this draft.
Also until the last month of the season he was losing his speed, but changed hi motion and started throwing much harder the last month of the season/playoffs. He is my pick to move up to be a 4 star pitcher.
What do you guy think of Bonderman? And have you heard where he might sign?
I think Lester will be a top 2 pitcher at the end of the year. Think he should be listed as the second 5 star pitcher.
Could Henry Rodriguez become the Nat's closer?
Also is there anyway to set up something so you know if someone replies to one of your comments so you don't have to go back to articles just to check to see if there is a response?
I read that Jenks knew he wasn't going to close when he signed the contract and saw a quote from him stating the same thing about not trying to step on anyones toes and knows he is not the closer guy and was good with that.
Not trying to be obnoxious, just curious whether this was something you inferred from the contract or if you have any evidence to show that Boston intends for him to close over Bard.
Why do you say Bard isn't in line. I know Jenks has previous experience as a closer, but Bard is one of the best relievers in baseball.
How close is Kenley Jansen to being the closer if Broxton falters?
What I read on HQ has him with an unlucky fly ball to HR ratio which is what I believe you are talking about him being unlucky. But also over the past two years he has had a very lucky H% (Hits allowed per balls in play) of 27% in 09 and 24% in 10. And given that he is not a dominant pitcher like Mo I would assume these would go way up to where they were the previous two years at around 35%. Now he probably is a better pitcher than he was, but I wouldn't ever say he has dominant stuff.
Another stat HQ generates is called BPV, base performance value, has him at 69 & 52.
Below is from Baseball HQ on how BPV is derived.
Pitching BPV: ((Dominance Rate - 5.0) x 18) + ((4.0 - Walk rate) x 27) + (Ground ball rate as whole number - 40)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success. The elite of the bullpen aces will have BPV's in excess of 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.
Also is Frank Francisco the clear favorite to be the closer in Toronto?
I'd also like to know what people's opinion are on who will be the closer for the Angels & Orioles. I think Downs bc he is the best reliever in the bullpen and they have shown to willing to use a lefty to close.
Wow this is the first article I have ever seen talk up Aardsma. Al most every other thing I read talks about is luckiness and that 2009 was a complete fluke, not 2010.
Also that might be a really interesting articles about young guys with shit loads of double and not many HRs in the minor leagues and seeing if it developed into true power as they got older?
I understand that, but if you go back and check many guys who have done this many doubles at age 19 you will see a lot of superstars. In my fantasy league there is a minor league draft and over the past 20 years, I have consistently drafted future superstars who were not the highest touted prospects, and this was the biggest thing ive noticed. Now I am not trying to say that what I'm saying is absolutely right. But from my experience a guy like this with these indicators,(also read somewhere else that he has a strong work ethic) will turn out to be a great hitter.
Also those are good reasons maybe from keeping him to be a 5 star prospect, but how close was he to being a 4 star prospect?
Sorry Cabrera batted .274 not .268. He batted .268 the year previous.
I dont understand why Arrenado is only a three star prospect.
He batted .308 with 41 doubles and 12 HRs and he is only 19!!!
It reminds me of one of the best hitters in the league who was not ranked high a a prospect. At age 19 in high A Miguel Cabrera hit 43 doubles and 9 HRs batting .268. These super young guys who hit a million doubles and only a few HRs seem to get under rated. As they develop these guys seem to usually turn into awesome hitters because these doubles turn into HRs.
Let me know what people think.
Why is Jared Clark not on this list. He seemed to do better than Arenado?
I read in one of the new baseball books that came out that Wrigley not during about two months in the summer is actually a good pitcher's park. B/c usually the wind is blowing in except for like June/July and some of August.
Football is also run by very smart people where even though steroid use has to be at least just as big as in baseball, nobody knows or cares. There is no scandal.
Don't you realize that if someone has a different opinion then they have to minus a post.
No, Bonds went from a Hall of Fame caliber player to the best hitter ever. Bagwell on/not on steroids was not as good as Bonds before steroid use.
Baseball was complicit in players taking steroids. About seven years ago I discussed steroids with a doctor on the Pirates. He said that at one of MLB doctors meeting where they passed out a list of what to test players for that one of the doctors asked why a bunch of other things were not being tested for and the head doctor said, "Don't shine bright lights in dark places."
I feel that since it was not against the rules of baseball at the time and that baseball allowed it to happen, they can not go back and condemn them now.
Also I was not trying to insult BP. I think BP has great ways to measure performance. Just insulting people who follow BP blindly.
Yes both Pujols and Votto had similar stats, but Adrien Gonzalez had just as good a year as Pujols, and got no consideration. When it was close to the point of both them being equally valuable to their teams then their is a clear winner if one guy helped get his team at least close to the playoffs because he has one more extra thing that goes to the word Valuable.
Which is exactly what I posted higher. which is why I say people who are upset about Pujols not winning should not be.
No the fact is ] that different people look at things different ways. BP might have had Pujols worth more, so obviously BP is all knowing and 100% right. Bill James has to be wrong because he hasn't been doing it for that long. So the fact that Bill James has Votto having better seasons than Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez doing better than Pujols doesn't matter. I love BP, but to think that they are best source and are never wrong is just stupid. The fact is that it was an incredibly close race and given that they gave it to a player who was absolutely deserving.
I personally think it depends on the situation. I think this year that Cano should have won the MVP. A very good defensive second baseman putting up great numbers. While also helping the Yankees get to the playoffs. I feel with an replacement second baseman they might not have made the playoffs. I'm not voting for him just because the Yankees made the playoffs. I think for the the position and defense and hitting and helping get his team to the playoffs is a combination of things that makes him the MVP. I think he was the Most Valuable Player in the league. I think the Rangers would have still made the playoffs w/o him and I think Cabrera's numbers as a first baseman weren't that much better even with his team being in the race he maybe shouldn't beat Cano.
If you want to go with the amount a person helped a team win, then check out the Bill James Handbook 2011. You will find that Bautista and Cano tied for the most win shares at 34 beating both Hamilton and Cabrera at 30 a piece.
Personally when it is close the guy on the playoff team/or in the race for the playoffs should win, but only when its close.
Oh yea also thought Adrian Gonzalez should have been at least second for the MVP, in the handbook it has him with more win shares than both Pujols and Votto. Adrian=35, Votto=33, Albert=32.
I'm not saying that team strength is a necessity. You do not have to be on a team that makes or is close to making the playoffs, but you better have a damn good year that is clearly better than everyone else. Also team strength can hurt a player too. A team that wins a division by 15 games probably would have won the division anyways without them. So then that would hurt the player. I do not think it is a popularity award but it absolutely is subjective to what someone considers more valuable.
P.S. I would like to know what the BP writers think on this issue.
P.S. Pujols defense was not great this year. He performed just average.
Well first off I'll start by saying that obviously the player that isn't considered to have the best season on a team will not win the MVP. (I'm not talking in cases where it's close. Like when personally I believe Maur should have beat morneau a few years ago) like what I said before the MVP award is more of a subjective award based on what you believe is more valuable. When there is not a significant difference in win shares between two players, the majority of writers & people consider the player's win shares that contribute to a team close to the playoffs as more valuable to the team than a guy who is on a team that has 72 wins instead of 69. Then there are also guys like adrian Gonzalez who only put up great numbers instead of monster numbers bc he plays for San Diego. Now he might be the nest case of a guy getting screwed over. Pujols and vottos numbers were better but Adrian still had great numbers/great defense in that stadium and was the sole source of runs on that team. Also no one has covered it because it hasn't happened this year but MVP candidates who are on the same team as each other because they obviously weren't that valuable to their team in comparison to another person who is the only MVP candidate on their team.
Back to my original point. It is a subjective award based on who you believe is most valuable. That could be to a certain team or for the whole league. Because it is not a strictly individual award your team and teammates do play a part. (also in rbis). Also I believe we can all agree that the most important thing in the regular season is to make the playoffs. So whatever player impacts that the most usually gets the award.
Also before I read Bill James handbook 2011 I thought Cano should have won the MVP. Now looking at it Cano tied for the most win shares with Bautista. 4 more than both Hamilton and Cabrera.
You talk about not having progress, but there is a big difference between the Cy Young award and the MVP. The Cy Young is suppose to be more of an objective award given to the best pitcher in the league. With Felix winning they ignored stats that are not in his control because he was the best pitcher. The MVP award is more of a subjective award. It is given to the most valuable player. Now it is up to the voters to decide what is more valuable. A guy who might be a little better, but whose team doesn't make the playoffs or the other guy who helped get his team there. There really is not a big difference between a team that's last or second to last. If the award was the best player in the league award it would be very different, but the point is that because it is a subjective award it is based on what someone thinks is more valuable, not who is better.
Do you not understand that there is a big difference between a guy that causes his team to be 84-78 and not make the playoffs instead of 80-82. and a person who causes his team to be 89-whatever and be close to making the playoffs than whatever87 wins??????and not making the playoffs is there not a big difference. A player that pushes a team into the playoffs is worth a lot!!!!
Votto did beat him in OBP and OPS. I understand that Warp and Vorp he didn't but the line needs to be drawn somewhere. Warp and Vorp are not prefect.
It's all relative to the season at the time. There is no definitive stats that says a person will win. The point is when its somewhat close, the edge will go to the guy who had a bigger impact on his team.
Well Votto won, you can definitely make a case for Adrian Gonzalez playing in that ballpark(division of bat killing ballparks)and being the offense for a team that almost made the playoffs, Cargo was potentially a winner. And Halladay was the nuts the second half of the season to help jolt the Phillies into the playoffs.
Side Note I wonder if the guy that voted Pujols 5th also voted Cargo 6th, and Adrian Gonzo 7th, and the Ryan Howard 2nd. hahaha
No. If your team is in contention for a playoff spot you can also win it w/o having to outclass the field.
Look at it this way. W/o Pujols the Cardinals still are in the same position. W/o Votto the Reds do not make the playoffs. Votto's production while maybe not as good, but close, was much more valuable to his team. To win the MVP without your team being in contention, you need to have an amazing year. It's called the Most VALUABLE player not the best player. The The Cy Young has previously cared about individual wins and not the performance of the team.
How slow is he? Will he be able to steal 15-20 bases a year in the majors? Will he be able to steal against bad catchers and/or pitchers. Being a good baserunner and getting good jumps seems much more important than speed.
With gold glove defense and probably the most impact on is team Robinson Cano should get the MVP. Cabrera's was out of it and the Rangers could still have won that division with an average outfielder instead of Hamilton. The Yankees would not have been in the division race and may have been passed by the Red Sox had Cano not been so good.
Can't Hosmer run some too. He had 14 SBs in 16 attempts. That doesn't seem that bad.
Well then should the MVP also just go to the best hitter and we should disregard how the team ends up. RBIs definitely should not be accounted for when voting for the MVP. Should we disregard ERA because that isn't the best indicator of a pitchers skill. There are many pitchers who get lucky or unlucky in the coarse of a game. Should we not take into account pitchers playing in bad or good hitting stadiums. I think that Price, Sabathia and Buchholz all had amazing years too. They were players who pitched well in pressure situations on teams that had at least a chance of making the playoffs, and did not pitch in the pitcher friendly park.
The fact is these awards are given for the results players produce. Wins are the biggest impact a pitcher can have on their team and that is why it is coveted. I realize their is luck involved, but there also is a lot of luck in the game of baseball and many of the stats. There is a reason why there are some pitchers are awful consistently while their peripherals say they are much better.
I don't disagree that Felix is a great pitcher and one of the best in baseball, but the Cy Young is an award that relies heavily on win loss percentage of pitchers. This is not a solo driven stat, just like the MVP relies a lot on RBIs and how well your team does. I know Felix was great, but so were a lot of other pitchers who also pitched extremely well not in the one of the best pitchers parks in baseball.
I understand that wins are a stat in which luck/team performance also attributes. Both ERA and WHIP can also be attributed to luck.
Side question: Some pitchers pump up there team when they pitch through their charisma and enthusiasm. If a pitcher can generate more out of his team while he is pitching should that be contributed to him? and the reverse too, if a team hates the pitcher do they not want to win for him?
Also I would like to know if there has ever been an article on the physical presence of pitchers. Like if a teams continues to hit bad while a certain pitcher pitches or hit better. I understand that the Ace usually face another Ace so stats can be skewed but it feels possible that something could be there.
Those only go to the results of last year.
"but 13-12 is completely different than 15-8"
In 2008 Cliff Lee was 22-3 on the god awful Indians. Good pitchers win games. Also Felix stats are even better than what they should be because he pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball. Guys like Sabathia have to pitch in the the new Yankee Stadium where pop-flys become HRs.
How did Clay Buchholz not get more votes for Cy Young Award? His ERA was 2.33 barely above Felix's and his record was 17-7. I personally felt he should win, but know there are legitimate cases for the others too. What I don't understand is him not making the top 5. I understand that there is a big luck component to how many runs your teams scores in games you win, but 13-12???? I feel people voted for Felix so that they could denounce the "old way of thinking". Grienke deserved it last year at 15-8 because his team sucked, but 13-12 is completely different than 13-12. There are pitchers who know how to win games and bare down when a game is close. The same pitcher who is up 3 or 4 runs in a different game may not throw his best stuff because he doesn't want to tire his arm out and hopes to go nine innings. Felix had 12 losses, you need to put some of the blame on him. He was an amazing pitcher, but he lost those games not his bullpen.
What about a past projection statement. It always bothers me that a perfect world projection drastically changes for a guy who had a bad year. I f you look at Eric Hosmer's perfect world projection the past two years are drastically different. considering his talent is still the same his perfect world projection should be too. But it is also very interesting to know whether a guy used to be a top prospect or never was a top prospect.
I'd like to know what people think of this?
What about Votto?