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As a person without a cable subscription, and living in a state that blacks me out of about 30% of games (so no MLB.tv for me), I find this daily article worth the price of subscription alone. Thanks for the great work.
Lovejoy: Homer, I'd like you to remember Matthew 7:26. "The foolish man who built his house upon the sand."
Homer: And you remember...Matthew... 21:17.
Lovejoy: "And he left them and went out of the city, into Bethany, and he lodged there?"
Homer: Yeah. Think about it.
I would love to see an analysis of Heyward's 2014 power outage. Is it due to his different swing? It seems like someone that large with that much raw power would be able to manage more than 11 homeruns and 26 doubles.
If the Blue Jays are down to Don Johnson, they're really in trouble.
Gallo's strikeout rate is huge, despite better pitch recognition (possibly small sample size issue?). How much does his strikeout rate limit his potential?
Baseball-reference's WAR double counts the positional adjustment when you split out the oWAR and dWar. So combining the two numbers together won't give you bWAR.
Hamilton's jump looks like it's on fast forward. Incredible.
I assume his request was denied because he weighs too much to use a Segway, right?
Funny, just the other day I saw Josh Reddick with a Chinese menu in his hand.
It's the oldest city because its citizens live forever.
It's sad to think that if you combined the Astros hitting and the Marlins pitching, the team would be no more than mediocre.
Say hello to your 2014 Houami Marstros.
Love the batboy coming in from the left on the 1982 clip. Bounces right off the horde.
Last night I watched the 30 for 30 documentary on Jordan's season in Double-A. It's streaming on Netflix currently. There is sound for at least one of the other homeruns, and I think there was video for him hitting one of the others, but not the whole trot. Jordan actually received a lot of praise from the Double-A hitting coach - by the end of the season he was a completely different hitter and was making a lot of progress. They speculated on whether he would have stayed in baseball or not if the strike hadn't happened.
"We've never elected a pitcher who spent his entire career in the American League during the DH era."
This quote is also some dubious cherry picking. In the free agent area, how many pitchers spend their entire career in one league?
Baseball Reference has "clutch" stats if you dig into the splits. In his career, LaRoche has hit better in games with a margin of 4+ runs than in all other situations. However, I don't know if that's statistically significant or not - it could be that all players hit better in that scenario because 1) If their team is up big, there's a higher chance the player has had a better game, and 2) if the team is down big, there could be some scrub pitchers filling in and eating innings.
Is there any concern about the lack of hitting talent in the top 10?
I think I echo many of the other people in the comments when I say there is a fine line between quirky/goofy and annoying. Many of the "weird" beloved players fall in the the quirky/goofy category (Turk Wendell?), while Brian Wilson falls squarely in the annoying category. It may be that Wilson seems to be "pushing" his weirdness on us rather than letting us accept that he is weird. When my parents tried to force me to eat broccoli, I hated it. When I got older and tried it on my own, I loved it.
Food metaphors? Firejoemorgan.com (RIP) approves.
Yeah, MLB.tv is tough in Iowa. We can't get White Sox, Cubs, Twins, Indians, Tigers, Cardinals, Royals, or Brewers (maybe the reds, too?). I assume other parts of the country are similar, but not being able to see more than 1/4th of baseball teams is frustrating.
In his career, Buehrle's been great against the Orioles, okay against the Red Sox and Rays (including a perfect game), and terrible against the Yankees. His main advantage is he is a strike thrower, and the AL East is notoriously patient. If he can do his usual thing and get ahead in counts, he may be okay. He does risk becoming homer-prone, though.
Hey! Don't knock "Land of Hope and Dreams."
1995 for me. I first started following baseball in 1993, but only followed one team and nothing else. Then, in '94 the strike happened. So, the 1995 one is the first I remember clearly. I'll never forget Tom Glavine's near no hitter and David Justice's homerun being the lone score of the game.
I am fascinated by the old men bending over to pick something up in the GIF. What is he picking up? Why isn't he cheering?
I've always been anti "we." I work for a large public University with well known sports teams, and the only way I would say "we" about them is if I actually worked in the athletics department. It would be like saying that because I drive a Ford, I am part of the company. "Yeah, we really had a great quarter. So much profit!"
In honor of Carlos Lee's homerun, I present his homerun totals by season:
16, 24, 24, 26, 31, 31, 32, 37, 32, 28, 26, 24, 18, 7
A consistent rise, and consistent fall. The perfect career arc?
Season 5 begins July 15th!
I think he did a charlie brown walk.
Looks like his bat broke.
Adam Dunn watch! 30 strikeouts in his last 64 plate appearances.
Thanks for the Adam Dunn nugget. I was hoping you would say something about his no strikeout game once it finally happened.
Adam Dunn has struck out at least once in every game he's played this year. How long will that continue?
I think Jim Creighton is supposed to be Mr. Burns right fielder - Smithers mentions that the right fielder on Burns' team had been dead from over 130 years, which would put the death of the player around 1862, which is when Creighton died.
One of my favorite episodes. Listening to the commentary for the episode is great, especially when they talk about Griffey's coaching him on his lines, and Griffey not understanding the line "It's like there's a party in my mouth and everyone is invited."
and by "see," I mean "read about."
This is strictly anecdotal, but I see a lot of ACL, MCL, and PCL injuries, but never any to the Lateral Collateral Ligament. Is there a reason for this?
I enjoy these articles, but I can't help but feel the ranking is skewed toward teams that weren't expected to have high WARP totals to begin with.
Would TAWL be more effective if it was compared to expected WARP? By that I mean, take TAWL as a percent of expected warp, and see what percent of value a team lost compared to the original expectation.
I was at comic-con in Chicago last year, and Avery Brooks (Sisko) was one of the guests. He was specifically asked about this episode, and what he did to prepare. Brooks said that he considers Dusty Baker to be a big inspiration, which could explain some of his decisions on the field.
Buehrle has given the impression for some time that he options are White Sox, Cardinals, or retire. It seems unlikely that he would go anywhere else. The money would have to be outrageous.
The early word is that Duncan will be around next year.
For those interested, David's interviews will now be on Fangraphs.
his also atrocious in the field and runs the bases like he's wearing lead boots. It's been painful to watch for the last couple of years.
This is why Gauntlett Eldemire was the first pick in my fantasy draft.
I'm also an accountant. Most states with major sports teams have something called the "jock tax." Basically, those states can collect income tax on any players that visit cities within the state to play a game.
Lee would not necessarily have no state income tax while playing for the Rangers. Since he would be living in Arkansas, Arkansas would be charging him state income tax even though Texas didn't. Many states have rules like that. For instance, I live in Iowa. If I crossed into Illinois to work, my income would be taxed at Illinois state rates, and be remitted to Illinois. Iowa would also go after me for Income tax, but I would get a credit for what I paid Illinois, so my Iowa liability would be little to none. If Illinois had no income tax, I would have to pay Iowa for the state tax that I didn't have to pay working in Illinois.
Agreed. Luke Scott is arguing a demonstrable fact. It's akin to saying "Robert DeNiro was not an actor in Raging Bull," or "gravity does not exist."
Not having seens all of the movies in your leadership question, can you give a brief description of the leadership style each one posesses?
I was just about to put this, too. Everyone must be getting their info from the same faulty source.
It seems like Major League umpires are a nacissitic bunch. Obviously that is a blanket statement, but because there are so few of them, umpires tend to believe that they are the best, and no one has the right question their judgement. In essence, umpires think they are infallible, and to have instant replay on any questionalbe call would damage their reputation.
Hopefully, sometime in the near future, the calls for instant replay will be loud enough for the commissioner and owners to ignore the feelings of the umpires. At that point, we will know that getting the call correct is more important than protecting umpires.
Furthermore, A replay system would, to an extent, quantify how accurate umpires are when they aren't behind the plate. That could be very important in determining whether some of the men in black should be in the major leagues, or at my nephew's little league game.
You missed the best name of them all... Gauntlett Eldemire.
Matt Holliday actually had 6.4 WARP last year - 3.1 with Oakland and 3.3 with St. Louis.
Will, your articles make me look like a genious when talking to friends and family about player injuries. I'm going to miss feeling so smart.
Thanks for everything.
#38 - I have thought about this. I think if I faced a major league pitcher with 4 at least average pitches, he would be impossible to hit. Sure, I might get a good cut and tip or foul some off, but actual, solid confident contact would be hard. And by confident I mean reading the pitch and swinging where I believe it will be, not guessing.
"Joe Sheehan's WARPed Mind"
Inception is great. I don't know exactly how it rates on my Nolan scale, but it is nearly a tie for me between The Dark Knight, Memento, and Inception. Batman Begins and The Prestige are quite a ways further down the list. I haven't seen the other 2 (or 3?), but I know one is on my Netflix instant watch queue.
Although it's too early to tell, if Grant Green's defense remain poor as a result of his arm, what is his best option? Second base, or a move to the outfield?
I am confused as to where you come up with the idea that starting pitching is not a predictor of success in the playoffs. In the "Secret Sauce" article, Nate Silver states that there are 3 predicotrs of success:
"A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
A good defense, as measured by FRAA"
Lee would classify as a power pitcher, with an above average strikout rate. He would certainly improve the Rangers chances come playoff time, because he is likely replacing a pitcher with a lower normalized strikout rate. The difference may be small, but there is still a difference.
I agree, and the first question can be "What about this guy?" with an explanation about how the question should never be asked.
"Deglan is a big, athletic catcher with a plus arm and surprisingly advanced receiving skills for a Canadian."
Are young Canadian catchers generally not known for their defense?
I have never been to Tropicana field, but have heard nothing except how terrible it is. Would a new stadium with a better location within St. Pete (or the surrounding area) increase attendance significantly? Or, are Florida teams cursed to have low attendances regardless of how good they are?
The 1955 Milwaukee team was the Braves, not Brewers. Fun article!
I think when Will says "perhaps much later," he may mean a hip replacement after Rodriguez's career is over. A-Rod will likely need some more work done by then, though; justnot a full out hip replacement. Would Bo Jackson be the only comparable? He did okay after his hip replacement, but he was never the same as before.
As I understand it, if ANI were to win, the NFL would not have the right to make exclusive agreements, unless it involves the promotion of games - because more than one team is involved.
Regarding the EA Sports exclusive agreement, the video game wouldn't be an NFL games without all 32 teams, jerseys, players, etc. Everything comes as a package, and dealing with individual teams would be very difficult. To me, it seems that the exclusive game agreement could be held up as valid.
RE: Need for Speed graph. It appears there is a lot of varianace early on, but a look at the y axis shows the speed of his fastball varied between 96 and 100 mph the whole night. Really not that much variance.
The Orioles free agent signings seems to show that the underlying issue with free agent compensation is how Type A and Type B players are determined. There has to be a better method.
I believe the problems lies in BABIP taking a very long time to stabilize as a statistic. Players can go a full year with an abnormally high or low BABIP, only to have it crater or rise in the following year - look at Jay Bruce or Chris Coghlan. With enough plate appearances, we can see that players like Ichiro and Derek Jeter just have a high BABIP as a result of their approach, while some players may stabilize around .280, when the league average is around .300. However, very high or low BABIP is an outlier- Ichiro and Jeter are exceptions to the rule, and most players with very high or low BABIP do return to a more "normal" range, but not necessarily the league average.
Christina, what are your thoughts of Adams Dunn's fielding abilities at first base after seeing two games?
Can't wait to hear your take on Ryan Howard's big ol' payday.
nice Lost reference for those of you who don't watch the show.
I really enjoy these articles, exepcially for "pre-game" analysis that CK gives us. Much better than TV analyst "keys to the game," which tend to be things like "throw strikes," "don't let Albert Pujols hit a home run," "don't fall behind early" and "John Smoltz's beard."
Slaughterhouse Five is among the greatest books ever written, let alone the best of 1969.
Can you please explain you present day value calculation for Holliday? Even without deferments, and using 3% inflation, I came up with a present day value of just under $109 million.
It makes sense to me that certain players would have different values at different positions. Think of it as opportunity cost. Martinez would rank among the most valuable catchers with his offense. If you drafted him with the intent of using him as a first baseman, he would be less valuable because the catcher you would end up with would not be as good on offense as Martinez. If you drafted Martinez with the intent of having him as a catcher, you could likely get a first baseman with more value that Martinez.
As stated in the Mariners' section, PECOTA doesn't like overachievers, and tends to have them under perform in the following year. The Angels won 97 games last year, which was about 10 games above their expected win-loss. So, they were actually a 87 win team, projected to have 76 wins. If they overachieve by ten games again, that would put them at about 86 wins.
He seems to be getting even less patient at the plate. Also, his BABIP was .336 with the Mets, against his career rate of .304, which inflates the numbers he had with the Mets. Maybe the change of scenery will work, but he will never be anything special.
I must be thinking of something else. Thank you
In reference to "suck green," doesn't the system also fall prey to "suck red," where a player sucked so badly in the prior year that the system thinks they were injured?
I, too would like to know Perrotto's reasons behind picking Mattingly, Dawson, and Parker over Raines. Raines was better than all three of those.
How much less money do players with a long injury history take vs. healthy players in free agent contracts?
Do any positions besides pitcher have a higher susceptibility to certain injuries?
Can players be too "fit?"
On short notice, the first thing I found was the Braves trading Marquis Grissom (coming off a career year) and David Justice to the Indians for Alan Embree and Kenny Lofton. This is obviously not the same, but it is a leadoff hitter for a power hitter. Lofton went on to file for free agency after one season with the braves, while Justice played 3.5 seasons with the Indians.
The difference here is that Lofton was a premier lead off hitter, and Justice was a proven slugger at that point. Grissom was okay, and Embree up to the point was a disappointing reliever.
Yes, CC may cost more, but he is established as an excellent baseball player. Cruz has had one pretty good year, and you don't know where he could go from here. He plays in a bandbox, so his numbers could crash going to many other ballparks. Just look at his home/ road splits: his OPS is 153 points higher at home vs on the road.
Giving up an top rated established player and a good arm for a player that is just a one year park affected wonder is not a good deal.
What do you consider the traditional view of player value?
It seemed like the Yankee's hitters knew they were going to be in for a long night very early in the game. The look on Jeter, Texiera, and Rodriguez's faces after they struck out was of utter bewilderment. It was like they were saying "this is going to be a looooong night."
Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but technically shouldn't 100% of pitches called within the standard strike zone be called strikes? Is this saying that umpires get about 25% of pitches within the strike zone wrong?
I would be interested to see a playoffs summary of pitch f/x vs umpire calls. How accurate were the home plate umps? Which team got more calls going their way? Was there a pattern to incorrectness? I felt like the home plate umpire in games 6 was blowing the inside strike, and that screwed Saunders over.
"In eighteendicketysix, a human being was state-of-the-art technology for making these decisions."
I really have nothing to add other than: thanks for the Simpsons reference.
"We had to say dickety because the Kaiser stole the word for twenty!"
Oh, and I agree with Joe. I like umpires and the human element, but either home plate umpires have to get some heavy training on the strike zone and only be home plate umpires, or we move to pitch f/x. Really, there just has to be more accountability. Umpires seem to hold grudges and make bad calls because of those grudges. Each year, umpires with an accuracy rate below a certain level (say, 98%) should be forced down to the minors or to another part of the diamond.