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Hey Paul, care to throw some advice to me for my starting rotation for our league world series in week 25 (I have a pretty big lead this week and should make it)?
I have two start pitchers in Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir and I think I will start them over Zimmerman at Miami and Liriano against Cincinatti. Do you agree with this? I am a little worried about not starting Zim with that match up.
I also can't decide if I should sit Uehara in the relief slot (he has six games at home), for Shelby Miller who starts at Milwaukee.
Thanks for any input!
Awesome! We are in Austin now and will head there for lunch on our way out of town! Thanks!
Jason, completely unrelated to the podcast or baseball and probably overstepping the bounds of what should be asked in this comment section, but what the hell.
I am a Canadian road tripping through the southern us and we are about to hit Texas. Can you recommend anything to do off the beaten path, beyond the standard visitor to dos? And if you can recommend any BBQ places that would also be really cool.
Again, sorry if this seems out of line to ask, just sort of grasping at straws here trying to plan this on the fly.
Thanks for all the great content!
Mike, I have three third basemen on my team in a standard CBS head to head league (Middlebrooks, Lawerie and Sandoval). I also have Konerko as my utility player (at least while Lawerie is on the DL).
Pagan just got dropped in my league and Chris Davis is also available. I have pretty low expectations for Middlebrooks, who would you drop him for? Or would you keep him? I have also thought of dropping him and adding another pitcher (my strategy is to just run out a bunch of league average guys with two starts every week). But, my bench only consists of Lawerie and Middlebrooks now, so that may be a little risky.
Sorry for the long winded fantasy question, but I probably over manage and I need some advice!
Hey SB, just want to say thanks for posting these comments. Sometimes I have trouble explaining to people why Yankees fans are the worst. This will be a big help!
Chapman may have additional value due to having RP eligibility (depending on league). Getting another starter in your lineup can be pretty valuable over a reliever that isn't going to earn a lot of saves.
Take into account Morrow being a little injury prone and it makes them a lot closer in value.
I'd probably still take the proven thing in Morrow though.
So, can someone explain to me why they want Wahoo to stay?
I really haven't heard a good explanation, beyond the reflexive "you must be insert political group you disagree with here" argument.
The image was born out of a bad place. It was a caricature of a race of people that comes from a time when those in a position of power believed that race of people to be lesser than them. It's cartoonish depiction of features of that race seemed okay at the time, because society didn't really view that race as equals or "civilized people".
Why do we wish to celebrate that ignorance today? Because our Grandparents cheered for a team with that logo?
What bothers me most isn't that some Native American may see the logo and be offended. But, that so many people see the logo and aren't upset. Upset about the way we used to treat people with different genes as a society (we're far from perfect today, but we are better). Why do you want a relic from that era displayed proudly on a major league baseball team's hats?
Yes! It meets the "tradition" standard and the "it's a damn awesome name" standard!
It's settled. I am becoming a billionaire, buying this franchise and renaming them the Spiders!
I will give you one ticket in return for the inspiration jssharo, but you'll have to pay for your own parking.
Really? Baseball Leftist? Come on man, Baseball Pro-Leftist flows so much better and was the low hanging fruit you could have so easily grabbed! I am disappointed.
But, onto the rest of your comment, it was just all kinds of crazy. Not sure how you get from this mascot is an insensitive and a relic of an era of racial intolerance to homeless vets and how Ben should just help them already. But, I think you're letting a perceived difference in ideology colour your opinion of this article.
Then again, I am Canadian, so I am probably just an elitist leftist bastard :)
"It's a baseball team that nobody really cares about."
I didn't know Chris Perez had a BP account...
Well, if insulting you drives you cancel your subscription and out of the comment section I'll buy two subscriptions next year to make up for the lost revenues.
I'm not even joking. Bill my credit card twice B-pro, you have my permission. Just drive him away.
I think you're vastly underrating Aviles and overrating Carpenter. Carpenter wasn't even going to make the Jays 40-man roster (or so the media has been told). So, they really didn't give up anything. Although starting Aviles would not be ideal, he is close to a league average player and that has a lot of value. They got this for a manager who told them he wanted to work for Boston. It's not earth shattering, but pretty good.
Snider will be out of options after this season. If they waited until the offseason and Snider had struggled, they would have to expose him to waivers to send him back to Triple A. That would cost the Jays a lot of leverage in any trade negotiations.
This was just fantastic. I have very high expectations whenever I read one of your articles Sam and yet you keep living up to them.
I know you want to keep the pit pure, but ma I suggest throwing a Rancor in there for the all star game?
Does anyone here know what degree Appel is getting at Stanford? People seem to assume that he will be a financial success just because he has a Stanford degree (a sentiment held outside these comments as well). A degree from Stanford does not guarantee financial success. Sure his degree will compare favorably to those earned from a lesser school, but it still matters what he studied. I really doubt everyone with a four-year degree in art history from Stanford is a millionaire.
I have yet to listen to the podcast (I am sure it is great as always), but thank-you for reminding me to buy the new Screaming Females album! This show introduced me to them and since then I have bought everything they have released.
Don Giovanni is basically the Moneyball record label right now. Exploiting the market inefficiency that is the Up and In musical guest.
On Larry's April 8th column you wrote this:
"you,ve got to be kiddin me? i'm tryin to win a fbb championship and i get tator trot charts? wow!"
So, you knew what this post was going to consist of when you clicked that little blue title and arrived here. If this truly is the stupidest column of all time, does this make you the stupidest commenter of all time? Clearly you dislike this stupid article, but yet you decide to expose yourself to it anyways?
I fear what would happen if you were ever left near an open flame unattended. Stick your hand in, get burned, stick hand in the flame again, get burned, curse the cruel god who put his flame in front of you, stick hand in again and start the whole cycle over.
Please, sir (or ma'am), do not procreate. It would be an unforgivable sin to knowingly pass on such stupidity to a child.
Ok, I know that in all likelihood this is just some douchey troll and they should not be fed. But, Larry is so awesome I had to respond to this jerk.
"That dead bear haunted me, because I kept his corpse. I let him rest, in the toy box among the Pound Puppies and the Glo Worm, hoping he would miraculously recover."
I originally was going to skip over this article, because I hadn't read you before.
Those two sentences alone made this article worth the read. Looking forward to reading more.
As an avid Star Wars fan, I feel it is important that "The Catina Band" gets it's full name out there: Figrin D'an and the Modal Nodes.
This comment may be the most perfect example of why I don't have a girlfriend.
I love this thing.
I love their new logo.
I have come to accept I love things that are tacky and colorful.
I blame it on growing up in the 90s.
Okay, let's say you are right, Trout would love to sign for $50M.
So a team A offers him $50M for 8 years, even if they value his expected production at $100M over the next 8 years. However, you seem to be forgetting about teams B-Z, who for simplicity sake, we will say also value Trout at $100M over 8 years.
Trout would love to have $50M in assured money, but he would probably love $60M even more, and one of the other teams will offer him that, because they would still expect to get $40M in surplus value out of that deal. In fact teams will keep offering him more until he reaches that $100M that they all believe him to really be worth and thus have no incentive to bid over that amount.
In actuality, teams would probably value Trout differently with ranges of $70M-$120M over eight years (numbers made up of course), meaning one team will likely keep upping their offer until no other team still expects to extract value out of that contract.
Even if Trout would love to get a guaranteed $50M, there is no reason he would have to accept that offer and no real reason he would accept it, without at least talking to other teams (some of which would gladly offer him more money).
Jason, I have to ask what the opinion of Rolling Rock is in the US of A. It has recently started popping up around Calgary in bars marketed as a premium beer. I have avoided it, as I smelled BS and I already have a long list of preferred beers, so no need to try a bland over priced new one. Are they trying to pull a fast one on us Canadians?
Also, thanks for turning me onto the Pennant Ale on the podcast. I see it occasionally in my local wine store. It is pricey out here, but worth it, when available. The Brooklyn Ale is also starting to pop up at bars here, a little more pricey than rolling rock, but far more delicious (I assume).
Well, I can't say I didn't see this coming. Every time I read one of your articles I had a feeling in the pit of my stomach it could be your last.
Congrats Mike and good luck (not that you will need it)!
Also, the silver lining will be having Max Marchi writing pieces here... although both of you would be better.
Another terrific piece Jason. I hope you are doing well and I am very sorry for your loss.
I think the playing in the National League will prevent Beltran from being a productive DH.
I think the actual intent of the draft was to reduce the cost of signing amateur talent that had been rapidly escalating. So, in that sense this new deal does better serve the original intent I guess.
I am loving this squabbling of Dodgers and Giants fans... please continue to make my day!
Kevin, on the idea that a guy "could be" hot. Is the small chance that a guy could be hot, worth the risk of allowing a sub-par player to take the field? I know that wasn't your point, just curious at what point you would actually bench a more talented player in favour of a perceived hot streak.
Thanks for the great article Colin! This was fantastic.
@R.A. Wagman: I read your blog on occasion (being a Jays Fan) I did not know you served, thank-you for your service.
"The hope and expectation is that this year, we win, and get trans people treated the same as everyone else."
That just makes me mad. That THIS is the year that you win, and winning is just equal treatment. That is so ridiculous and unfair.
If you need help from a Canadian, I'll gladly do what I can. I'm probably not very useful in Illinois though.
I've searched for over 20 years, but I finally found you Goldman! My revenge will be worth the subscription price!
Yes and the Bills also use it a few times a year, for Buffalo in Toronto games. With the idea that the Bills may one day move to Toronto (or at least that is the perception here in Canada).
Also, no one really cares about the Argonauts in Toronto, so maybe Billy doesn't count them.
I cannot judge an Orioles fan. Only pity them. I am so sorry.
Don't leave us hanging like that! What are the three teams (I'll go out on a limb here and assume one is the Brewers)?
We need to know so we can judge you!
It should be noted that the Jays have traded and then resigned McDonald before. So, this could happen again and McDonald hinted as much in his statements to the media after the trade (just to sooth those who are heartbroken over his loss).
I think you need a caveat for the Raiders hate. You should be allowed to root for the Raiders no matter what city you live in/lived in, if you happen to be a member of a violent (this is key) gang. Without this you may limit the fan base to single digits.
Jason, I know your long-term goal is to end up working for a team. But, I hope you realize how popular your articles are and how hey affect the readers here and consider that when evaluating where you want to be in the long-term.
As someone who hates crowds and has to deal with large groups on a regular basis (and has suffered panic attacks on multiple occasions because of this), I love reading your articles. Either they are great scouting reports, or they are something that I can relate to and identify with. Or, like today, they are both.
And yeah, there is something wrong with me (clearly the panic attacks for one thing) and I am an original 0.9er.
I dread the day we see article wishing you your best in your new scouting position. I hope for your sake it comes quickly, but for baseball fans everywhere I hope that day never comes...but it will.
Drank a half dozen beer at my slow pitch game. Posting this to keep my average up.
No drinking and posting? At least 25% of things I have posted on here probably involved me drinking in some level.
After typing that out I think I may need to re-examine how I live my life.
"Very few people in life are true self-motivators, and without any MLB mechanism of firing or demoting an umpire(let alone bonuses for good work), why assume that ALL umpires continue to train/focus/workhard at 100% of their ability?"
What makes you think they do not have these systems? Umpires are graded are they not? I assume their wages are tied to this?
Nice article Dustin. Good to see you posting at BP. Hope to see more.
Just out of curiosity, with Matt Swartz bringing Siera over to Fangraphs and presenting new updates to the stat over there, will BP be incorporating these updates? Or, has other staff taken up providing tweaks to Siera? Is the Siera presented here going to diverge from the Fangraphs Siera?
First we get a Sherilyn Fenn reference in Jason's article and now Mark Frost? This is a a good week to be a Twin Peaks geek!
Jason, thanks for another great article. I'm visiting New York right now and sipping a Brooklyn Summer Ale. It seems fitting that I'd read your article while drinking this beer. Now, off to the bar drink to much and awkwardly stare at pretty women!
Also, this beer is deicious, thanks for the reccomendation on the podcast!
Maybe I misunderstood him, but wasn't he speaking in terms of how to convey to a player the importance of saving his bonus money, when he made that comment? It seems like a reasonable thing to explain to a kid that his bonus money may need to last 30 years, as he will earn less money than if he had gotten an education. Maybe I misunderstood the education comment, but that is how I heard it. Not sure why that would cause annoyance other than he is Scott Boras.
Were the Jays in perpetual rebuilding when they were fourth best team in the league (by BP standards) in 2008? With a little less bad luck, they would have been in the playoffs in 2008. Ben, I have read the articles you have posted here and it appears that you are an expert in the Sox and Yanks, but not much more. I know the criticism you've received here is harsh, but to me it is warranted. I know you're not going to be doing in depth stats analysis, but this piece (and some others) have just come off as lazy.
Great article yet again Jason, are you sure you want to work for a team when you are putting out 80 grade articles and podcasts every week?
"I can't stand people, I don't want them anywhere near me"
Now I realize why I love Jason, I say that daily. Well, that and the amazing articles.
Agreed, it was a travesty how he stole all that money. If only he had signed some sort of contract that provided him that payment for some sort of services he rendered. Like, maybe some team signed him based on unreasonable expectations for his talent level. And then he failed to live up to those unreasonable expectations. Then he would have earned his money! But no, D-train had to go in to front offices with a gun and steal all that money! What a terrible person.
Great article Jason. I'm sure it will have it's detractors, but it was an interesting way of presenting Teheran's story and I like it.
I think the issue here is you are comparing new and old WARP. BP has changed the replacement level for WARP and also made other changes to how it is calculated (and current player cards have not been updated with new WARP, so past seasons are listed in with old WARP). I am pretty sure all those WARP totals you listed will decrease with updated player cards. This doesn't change anything about the players performance, just changes the baseline players are being measured on. So, I think the best way to look at the projections is to compare players to their positions. This way you are comparing like metrics and seeing how much PECOTA really likes a player.
Crawford is projected to be the 3rd most valuable left fielder. Behind Holliday and Braun. That seems fair to me.
Votto, Cabrera and Gonzalez are in a dead heat for second best 1st baseman (also known as best non-robot 1st baseman).
I think PECOTA is fine, it's just confusion with the new WARP. I know Collin has written about it before, but I hope when they expand it to everywhere on the site BP runs another article explain the basic differences.
Also, all of my above comments were based on the weighted means spreadsheet as it was easier to grab data from there than going to the depth charts. I assume there are minimal differences.
I would think that most pitchers who put an ERA under 3, have luck on their side. So, PECOTA won't predict that. Rather it will project around true talent level and then some pitchers will end up above and below based on luck. Then again, I could be wrong, I just wouldn't expect PECOTA to predict a lot of ERAs under 3.
For my earlier typo
Please see correction:
My fellow canucks
My copy arrived last Thursday
All move to Calgary
My fellow canucks
My copy arrived last Thursday
I should be working
Lots to get done not much time
This site will end career
Those are the top 7 RFs in baseball according to the weighted means spreadsheet (I didn't want to dig through all the charts, I assume they are similar enough). Why do you think PECOTA is underrating Heyward and Stanton? They are projected to both be worth about 3 wins, which based on the new WARP seems pretty solid to me.
Can you give a few more examples that you believe are abnormally low other than Longoria? I've seen that name thrown around a lot and I think you need to give more examples if you're going to say we can't take PECOTA seriously. I'm not saying your wrong, but I would like to hear which players you think are being under valued in particular.
Apparently FRAA disagrees with your defensive rankings. PECOTA (according to the weighted means spreadsheet) has Pedroia at -4 and Swisher at +5 (in right). That's about 1 win difference right there.
I didn't realize how irrational saber minded readers could be. Anyone saying they have to fear the new authors or the content from BP after reading this article is making a huge leap in logic. Do you really think the content of the site is going to radically shift towards fan fiction or pornography? This was one article. About one sub set of fans that have a bizarre way of expressing themselves. If you're too irrational to realize that, maybe you should wander over to an ESPN article and discuss how awesome Ryan Howard's RBI totals are.
Emma, this was excellent and I am looking forward to reading more of your work.
Christopher, I'm not going to ridicule you, but I'll say this: This fiction exists, if the subject matter offends you that is fine. As you say it is your morality and you don't need to defend that. But, you shouldn't blame BP for bringing to light the fact that this stuff exists. Had Emma posted an entire graphic slash fiction story she wrote I would understand where you are coming from. But, all she did was bring to light a sub-culture that already existed. Would you really be better off pretending that this area of baseball fans did not exist? I understand you may not have wanted to know about it, but at that point you're just pulling the wool over your eyes regarding what really goes on in the world. You don't have to like it, but you have to accept that it exists.
Why compare this deal to Uggla at all? The Rangers didn't have the option of signing him.
I would be interested in knowing some of the ways teams account for things like player contracts, or other items unique to baseball/professional sports. Also, Paul Beeston has said: “Anyone who quotes profits of a baseball club is missing the point. Under generally accepted accounting principles, I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss, and I can get every national accounting firm to agree with me.” It would be interesting to know the types of policies teams use when preparing financial statements. Maybe a look at how the policies may obscure the teams actual financial health, or why income is not the proper measure of a team's financial health? But, that might not appeal to anyone but the accountants here.
Eric from one baseball-loving accountant to another: thank-you for writing an article mashing the two together! I am almost embarrassed to admit how excited I was when I saw the title.
Please stop it with the Baseball's integrity was destroyed! Baseball has never had an era of integrity, hell that would be a boring era! As Christina noted above there are several other injustices and scandals throughout all of baseball's history. Steroids may seem like the worst scandal, since it is happening now and not being remembered with the fondness we put on the past.
Why invent a reason for any player keeping quiet? You are a baseball fan, you know the culture around the clubhouses. Its a code of silence, what happens in the clubhouse or on the road stays there. No matter what. Sure a player aware of steroid use could go out and say something, but they would be ostracized by other players and quite possibly the media. The media would run with it, but players and commentators would say that they should have handled it internally etc. Now, maybe that isn't what would happen, but it would be a logical that any player who knew (or suspected) teammates of taking steroids that they would expect this reaction. Hell, they might just keep it to themselves because they believed that there was more honor in silence than in outing a cheater.
Basically, even if Bagwell knew and said nothing, it still takes a large leap on anyone's part to assume he kept silent for purely selfish reasons.
Wells and Batista did play over their heads, but if you expect them to fall down should you not also expect Hill and Lind to step up their game? Also, the Jays have a number of young pitchers to take over for Marcum and Morrow is a breakout candidate which will make up part of the difference. I am not saying the Jays will make the playoffs (in fact I think the best they can hope for would be a 3rd place finish in the East, if New York or Tampa get hit with some injuries). But thinking they cannot compete seems to be based more on the bias of what people think the Jays are and not actual facts.
Gonzalez will be worse than the .244 TAV he put up in Atlanta last year? THey didn't get the benefit of his hot start in Toronto.
It is a $27.5M option, with a guaranteed buy out of $12.5M. That $12.5M is included in Cristina's calculation of average value (as it should be since the money is guaranteed). So, even though the option is technically a $27.5M option, because the Phillies are required to pay Lee $12.5M it is really a $15M option (bringing down the AAV).
I take issue with calling these players over paid. Is it fair to say some players (Barry Zito, Vernon Wells, etc.) are earning more money than value they produce? Hell yes, but overall players are being compensated pretty fairly for the amount value they are producing for the owners (baseball is not bankrupt). People seem to get upset when they see the huge dollar figures players are paid, forgetting that they need to be taken in the overall context of the revenue generated by baseball. If you have a problem with how much money baseball is making, stop supporting the game. Support the independent leagues who have players who are playing purely for sake of getting to play baseball.
And yes, I understand the Padres lose talent to free agency and it is tough on fans. But, would you prefer it if the players were forced to play their entire careers for the Padres at a far below market price, while ownership raked in revenues? Could you defend that morally? That Adrian Gonzalez should earn a fraction of the value he creates for the Padres so their fans can watch his entire career?
"The Players' Union and escalating salaries have effectively priced me out of attending games."
That's right, because businesses set their prices based on their expenses not market demand.
Tee time in the early afternoon Saturday? That or he has no concept how to manage a playoff game. As a Jays fan I hope it is the latter. As a fan of logic and reason.... well I guess I can't cheer for any manager at that point.
If Lee made the game one start he could pitch in three games. That assumes that he would be willing to pitch on short rest, or that he would be effective, neither of which are known. I think I have read somewhere he doesn't want to pitch on short rest, but I do not know if that is true or pure speculation.
On the Mexican coke: seeing as this is a Baseball Prospectus podcast; I think a study should be done on the site. Have Colin, Matt and Eric come up with a blinded taste test and analyze the results from all different statistical angles! You can determine once and for all if the great taste of Mexican coke is all in your head, or if there is a real difference in taste.
Tom, I love your work and appreciate your comments here (generally pointing out things that I didn't think of, but can pretend I did when talking with friends), but you can come off as being arrogant. I hate to say it, because I don't want you to change you comments, or style (they are useful to the discussion here). But, for people who just see you as a competitor (or even just a random guy) trying to nit pick I can understand why people can misunderstand you. I think the issue is you constantly prodding for proof or clarification, which is absolutely a necessary thing and people don't understand that. People see it as being annoying. I appreciate it (even if I don't always agree) and I hope you continue to annoy people here, to better advance our knowledge.
"Fine, but unless you think teams are horrible at putting the best players on the field, that should result in a upward sloping graph (fewest players in 0-10% and most in 90-100%) and not the U shape in TTango's graph or the downward slope in the graph in the article."
But, you are ignoring the fact that players that are proven "starters" will be given much more leeway, even when they are failing to put up replacement level offense (see: Aaron Hill and most of the Cardinals in 2010). So, we should expect a large cluster near the bottom while these players continue to get playing time.
Collin, I have always missed Nate's writing from this site (even while following his new venture). I never thought someone of his caliber would write for BP again. Well, all I can say is I was wrong and your name is the first I look for everyday when I come to BP. The columns you have been writing are spectacular. Keep it up!
Well, we don't know what happened and we don't know the legal issues surrounding anything that has happened. I assume they want to comment, but are being advised not to.
I think the fact that Kevin did not respond to the post, but did to others, suggests there is something going on.
Who would you sit this week: Strasburg at Philly, or Shields pitching to Texas at home? My other four pitchers are all two start guys, so I need to pick on of the two.
Not sure you mentioned this before, but is there a rough date you are hoping to transition to the new stat reports?
@ TheRealNeal (I can't reply to your comment for some reason). His slugging percentage may have dropped, but his Tav and WARP (assuming no injuries, or dramatic drop off in producion this year) have increased every year. I'd trade 30 points of slugging for that.
So, do you think it would be better for his long-term development if the Reds were not in contention and he could work on his control in the minors?
Great article Matt! The only downside is now I will have that song stuck in my head all day (although maybe that's not a downside).
Can you elaborate on why you don't think it is a new unique pitch? What makes the gyro and a knuckle curve so similar?
I can't imagine the "subsidy" being that great. Half the ticket isn't being paid for, but half of the effective tax rate on that expense is being "subsidized". So, if we assume a 30% tax rate, they are saving 15% off the ticket price. That is more than the average fan, but it doesn't seem nearly enough to drive a 265% increase.
I'm not familiar with the American tax system (I am an accountant, but Canadian), but I assume the expense also has to be for business purposes. At the very least the company would have to be bringing client's, or potential client's to the games on a regular basis. Anyways, if anyone has a little more insight on the American tax system, I would appreciate the feedback (ok, I am actually getting excited to discuss taxes).
Probably due to inter-league play?
It is right. Could care less is a common phrase meaning that someone doesn't care. It doesn't make sense literally, but I think the phrase's common usage will prevent anyone from misunderstanding.
Yeah, take that expert consensus of nuerology and psycology! Who needs your decades of studies and research establishing addictions as a disease? This guy had addictions!
That's true, if they were there would be no more leafs fans (one can only dream...).
I find it mind boggling that someone (well, multiple people) took the time to personally email you about this. And they emailed you with so much hate. Don't get me wrong I'm as hate filled as the next guy, but there are much better (and healthier) places to direct it.