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Brilliant piece Ryan! For a modern player, scouts have suggested Mike Trout's swing is almost "slump proof" due to it's simplicity. (I think I read that here on BP).
I know you're not taking requests, but I'd love this type of analysis to continue. Maybe even a Trout breakdown at some point?
Thanks Ryan, again, well done.
Thank you Josh and best of luck in your surgery. I trust you are in great hands with your surgical team. Looking forward to your next column. Chris
Managers who veto are often on a quest for perfect 50/50 value switching sides in the deal. No winners, no losers. Of course this quest is doomed and flawed. As Mike writes, interpretations of value and upside differ.
Agreed QS is a category more indicative of Starter performance. However, it also has its flaws, including the 1 run, 5 and 2/3 inning, 10+ strikeout performances not being deemed "quality".
A glove first shortstop is something Boston has in Jose Iglesias. Any rumors on this Daniel?
So BP as the thinking man's website? And with all due respect, the author asks the following question of Bobby Valentine: "do you think David Ortiz would help?".
I get initiating conversation but I would also respond with a one word answer. Or, perhaps an inappropriate, two word answer.
Good piece Russell. Easy to forget about the human element. I'd still have taken Pedro out :-)
Haha... Exact same thought process ran through my head!
I'll assume the Yankee reference is in relation to Loria pocketing Yankee tax dollars.
Your point is that FRAA isn't consistent in it's evaluations?
Any chance the exorbitant cost of trials is partly driven by the cost of you trial lawyers? How about you reduce your 500 dollar per hour fee to, oh, a measly 250 per hour? That should help reduce the trial cost.
Ok, so we stop pursuing criminals because it's expensive?
I think lying under oath makes one a "real" crook.
Great work Max. Very interesting. Agreed completely with your request to the networks as well.
For those of you who use PFM in your pre-draft prep, how do you account for bench spots? I've just added the bench spot to either the Util or P spots on the roster, generally split by my budget allocation. So, if 66% for hitting and 33 for pitching, for my 3 bench spots I'd allocate 2 to hitting an 1 to pitching.
I suppose the optimal budget allocation is also a function of positional depth, and needs to account for the keepers announced by managers within a league (if you play in a keeper format.)
I'd be interested in how other Managers out there account for bench spots. Also, for keeper leagues, I've been a believer in the SGP feature, with the understanding that this feature helps account for inflation, positional depth and my team's positional need, given available budget. Is this generally the understanding of others?
I'm all for due process. But this is a loophole?
Not sure if this is the forum for a PFM issue, but I continue to see Kevin Youkilis listed as a 1B and not a 3B... either Gonzo was traded, my system is acting up... or PFM is off?
I'm seeing Youkilis as a 1B in the PFM. Am I somehow getting an old version?
Early pecota observation: Youkilis is listed at 1b; assuming this is an oversight. Thanks!
I'm thinking Brad has a creative accountant to figure this out. Plenty of "professional expenses" to write off.
Also the currency implications if he is paid in Yen, not that the US peso, I mean, Dollar is all that strong these days.
8-.315-500 club... Excellent. The new 40/40 club.
What kind of defensive production could we expect from Iglesias should he make the Show? I get the lack of offensive readiness, but how much would be offset by his stellar defensive chops?
Something tells me Jose heads north out of spring with the job. Depending on who you believe, Iglesias ranges from possibly a top 5 glove man right now to the best defensive prospect we've seen. Yes, I have read his .550 ops in Pawtucket.
Agreed Richard. My take on their not working through the Jeremy Brown, Nick Swisher draft was that they replaced it with the free agent selection process.
Sorry for the negative comment, just thought For The Love Of The Game was dismal.
Pardon me: Enrico Polazzo.
"HEY! IT'S ENRIQUE POLLAZZO!"
"Candlesticks always make a nice gift."
Even now, anytime I see any player other than the pitching coach and catcher visit the mound, I'm thinking the above quote, followed by, "OK, LET'S GET TWO!"
Declaring yourself World Champion if there was actually a World Tournament to play in, when you actually didn't win the tournament... that's not arrogant, it's just stupid, right? The US, DR, and Korea cannot claim to be a baseball World Champion. Japan can. Twice over.
To clarify, based on your first statement: Therefore, since there is not a World Baseball Club Championship available, it is not arrogant to declare yourself World Champion when you win the MLB Championship? I gather this is the general consensus and, again, I obviously disagree. I believe it's arrogant and presumptuous.
I'm not sure I understand your follow on question: Yes, the winners of the World Baseball Classic and the Olympics (in all sports), similar to the World Cup of Soccer, are justified in declaring themselves World Champions.
If your question is whether I think the WBC or the Olympics are the best forum to decide the World Champion (picking between the two), if every player agreed to make themselves available, I think the WBC would be the right forum. A spectacular event.
I love the WBC and wish everyone did play, so as to crown a true World Champion with no asterisks (like the "well, the best US players chose not to play" argument that is put forward.)
Agreed the standard is higher top to bottom in MLB. Never was in dispute.
The issue is referring to yourself as World Champion when you didn't win a World Club tournament.
Calling yourself World Champion when you didn't earn that title is such an arrogant leap.
And in the NFL? It's just plain silly.
Wow, -10. A new record?
A -10 suggests others feel it is appropriate to refer to yourselves as World Champions when you played in a US Only club tournament.
Precisely. And on paper, the two strongest teams, the DR and the USA, haven't gotten a sniff of a World Title. I appreciate the format is less games/smaller sample sizes, and I trust that over 100 games, the US would still beat Japan, say, 65/35 (back of the envelope calc there.) The World Champs are the Japanese.
And the original point was that calling any MLB World Series winner the "World Champs" is a misnomer and, in my view, arrogant. Until there is a World Club championship, I think just calling themselves "Champions" is sufficient and appropriate.
That wasn't my comment.
And in football? Basketball? This is an American thing and I don't think it evolved from the World Series.
It's simply inaccurate, presumptuous, (and arrogant) to refer to yourself as world champion when you didn't win a world tournament.
On paper, davenport translated, whatever: the "best" team doesn't win, especially in baseball.
Until that world club tournament happens, which it won't, it's just silly to call yourself World Champion.
There absolutely is a chance the American team wouldn't win. The underdog sometimes wins.
I meant to say Barcelona don't refer to themselves as "World Champions" upon winning the Champions League.
On paper, St Louis would beat Chunichi in a 7 game series. But until they play off on the field, it seems more accurate to refer to refer to St Louis as North American club champions or MLB Champions. Still a massive accomplishment, right?
For crying out loud, even Barcelona (the club soccer team) don't refer to themselves upon winning the Champions League.
But I'm down with Ben's idea: "Milky Way Champions" it is...
It sounds arrogant. At least you admit guilt Kasgard.
And while I'm not losing sleep over it, as am American who lives overseas, I can tell you it is a common source of ribbing from my "mates.". "the Packers are world champions? Nice! They beat who again? Oh. Pittsburgh.".
America is number 1 as a nation? Really? At what? (please save the "patriotic" angle in any reply.). Because it's certainly not baseball. I'll concede Football. (American football, that is.)
Its worth clarifying: The Cardinals arent the World champions. They are the American Major League champions, still an awesome accomplishment.
Pass along the message to your colleagues please?
I'm positive that the Chunichi Dragons don't refer to themselves as World Champions, nor does County Dublin in Gaelic Football, or Panathinaikos in European basketball. Nor do the Green Bay Packers. Wait, scratch that, they claim World Domination as well.
Disappointing, and for the powers that be at Baseball Prospectus, please reconsider the decision to discontinue the Q&A. Really interesting stuff. I can say as a current player and coach, we regularly share and discuss the comments put forward by the players, coaches, and even front office types you interview. Besides being interesting, they are a great learning tool.
Thank you 10graham43. Agreed 100%. In the "safety" of my own clubhouse, I can be happy that a rival just got weaker. Surprised that the respected Hal would release this "story.".
Probably too early to say, but any initial thoughts on the Miggy Cabrera DUI/alcohol issue and impact on his 2011 season?
HRT is hormone replacement therapy. (hgh, test.). Thanks.
Apologies as I haven't read the bill James theory on modern players aging gracefully. Care to elaborate? I'm assuming HRT, but would rather not assume. Thanks.
Why now for this contract? Couldn't AA wait 3 months into 2011, observe, and still get this same deal done? It feels rushed. I get the data supporting this deal, and the lack of 3B depth. Still, why not wait for more positive data?
Or, this year's Matt Wieters.
Auction. It'll show the correct price for a bit, but as I continue to enter more keepers, it reverts to a dollar... I can then remove and re-add my keepers, but it inevitably reverts again.
When entering keepers, the players checked as mine keep reverting to a price of 1 dollar. Can this be reviewed please.
Fixed, thank you.
Nothing happening for me when I click on "Submit PFM Parameters." Odd.
Thankfully all those bugs were ironed out prior to release. Fortunately the perfectionists are all over it.
So T minus 3 hours and 19 minutes. Let's hope the perfectionists iron our all the bugs and data released is accurate.
Aussie Luke Hughes blasted a dong first AB last year for the Twins... and is now champion of the Perth Heat in the Australian Baseball League. Well done Hughesey!
Figuring out Fenway... do hitters "adapt" to their parks? Becoming pull happy for a short porch isn't necessarilly good hitting, and creates bad habits. You hit the ball where it's pitched, right?
Yes, waiting on a pitch as long as possible and driving it to the opposite field is good hitting... and will serve CC well as he bangs them off the Monster.
And pressure? Well, the weight of a 140+ million dollar contract carries weight too.
I'm comfortable with Pecota projections for CC, except the Run total feels low. 100+ runs feels right, whether he hits 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
And where he bats in the lineup is an important variable, one we must watch. Once settled, PECOTA adjustments will be forthcoming, correct? Higher runs scored and steals if he's hitting 1 or 2, higher RBI and less steals if he's hitting 3rd.
Australia has it's advantages, most notably early evening release of pecota.
Let Rios go for 20k, not Wells. Sorry for the annoying edit.
Editing the original article works for me Mark. Thanks again, and enjoying your insight.
Mark, can you re-create the 1st base rankings using the revised format? (x dollars for mixed leagues, y dollars for AL/NL Only.) This is a useful addition to the position reviews.
Unfortunate to hear Grace, a stud hitter, speaking about winning World Championships. He did win a US championship, AKA the World Series, but never a World Championship. Being the US champion is pretty good, no?
It's worth considering how foolish it sounds for players (across most US sports, including the NFL, which only America plays) to spout off about being World Champions.
When Chelsea won the English Premiership, they didn't claim to be World Champions; just English champions.
Yes it does help to excuse his behavior. And anyone who cries "that McGwire cheated America, cheated Roger Maris, had the nerve to hug Maris's son after breaking the record, blah, blah, blah" (see: Jeremy Schapp), is being dismissive of the reasons that players use. Ironically, players get healthier (through recovery) using HGH and other steroids. It's part of athletics (and society) and always will be. Players will always use. The sooner we understand this, move to regulate usage and accept the benefits of using within moderation, the sooner this becomes a non story. It won't happen of course.
I'm not sure why players chose not to use. And it wasn't an "admission" when I said some players didn't use; it was an acknowledgement.
Why don't players use? Let's speculate: Maybe they had guilty consciences. Maybe they felt "their bodies were their temples" and refuse to put anything foreign into them, from cow's milk, to red meat, to, yes, pills and syringes. Maybe ill informed posters on their gym locker rooms telling them flatly that "steroids kill" scared them silly. Or maybe they just couldn't find a supplier.
My points are that I think it's naive to dismiss the temptation and decision to use, particularly when considering the benefits to the player's life (including success, riches, and chasing a dream) and/or pressure to keep up with the competition. My mother used to tell me to put myself into someone else's shoes before criticizing. That's what I'm doing.
I'm missing how this is the logical end game to my position TC. And no: Many players chose not to use steroids.
I am trying to say that the steroids issue is best looked at, honestly, from the players position, asking yourself, "what would I do?", considering what is at stake.
And I'm not sure that answering, "I'd say no" is the "best" or "morally correct" answer. And should a player who uses feel guilty? Again, I'm not so sure he should.
Agreed Oira61. And pardon the oversimplification, but players use because they accomplish several key goals (and it's likely most or all of us would do the same thing in the player's situation):
-Increased recovery time from both injury and workouts, plus a 162 game schedule
-Increase in muscle mass which, yes, helps you hit the ball harder and further OR throw harder and longer
-Helps increase feelings of well being and confidence (not to be underestimated)
All of which help you make a career (and potentially lucrative, life changing one, at that) out of playing a game.
Borrowing from Rob Neyer's article from today (and countless others who have made the point), if your career (or hitting the lottery) depended upon taking a pill 6 weeks on, 6 weeks off, for several years, with limited to no side effects, you would also do it.
Ethics and public debate aside (as this is worthy of a book in itself)... Is there a place in sports for medically supervised use of HGH, Platlet Rich Plasma (PRP), and other, more classic, anabolic steroids (Winstrol, Deca, etc)? Do these products actually help athletes heal? How?
Several other bullet points/themes:
-Can they be used safely, under a doctor’s care, for recovery from injury? If they can be used safely , are these “therapies” acceptable, medically?
-Do these “therapies” have a place alongside, say, cortisone shots? Instead of cortisone shots? Which is more effective? Do cortisone shots do less or more damage than anabolic steroid/HGH/PRP treatments?
If we accept that "PEDs" are here to stay, it seems a topic worthy of time in your book.
Over 17.5 mill
Looking forward to Thursday's analysis. Still thinking Strass signs.
Fair enough. But should a team not pay a player because he didn't stretch properly pre game, and proceeds to pull a hamstring? And NFL WRs and RBs often take out their thigh pads, the ones that normally sit above the knee. Why? Comfort. Fair to say the risk is higher in NFL.
Agreed that Beltre wearing a cup would have helped him here. But how often does this type of, ahem, injury occur?
IF we were to legislate this equipment requirement, I'd personally only require infielders, including catchers, excluding pitchers. No need for outfielders.
I'm not sure what the fuss is about re Beltre and his playing sans cup. If he's stupid enough to play 3B in the Bigs, with screaming liners (and more likely, awkward short hops, as those who have played 3b will attest) aiming directly for his junk, then, well, so be it.
This is far different than playing without a batting helmet. Personally, I'm fine with his junk being his business.
Also Clay: You mention the \"three decimal places... check.\" I\'m assuming you are suggesting this is fixed but I\'m still getting just two decimal places in stats like OBP, SLG, AVG...
Thanks for organizing, brilliant tool.