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Russell left Miggy off his ballot completely? Wowsers!
My guesses as to which were hits: left, left, left, left, left, right, right, right, left.
1) left - Looks like the batter was squaring it up
2) left - Pic on right looks like probably infield ground ball
3) left - Both look like the hitter took the other way. The one on the right had more movement.
4) left - It looks like the one on the right got popped up
5) left - Just looks easier to square up.
Minor Player Card error: If you look at the "2012 Forecast" section for pitchers, the hits allowed column is showing HRs allowed. Brandon Morrow and Josh Beckett are the two I looked at.
I'm a little surprised Tyler Austin didn't make your top 20. Any insight? Thanks for the list
Not really a problem, but, in the interest of maybe spurring conversation or improvement, I see Corey Dickerson of the Rockies is projected for 14 HRs and a .487 slg (which ranks 21st above Youkilis and Pablo Sandoval) in 250 PA. I believe his big power numbers this season were inflated by his playing in Ashville in the minors. Does Pecota look at minor league park factors? I found this at BA: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/08/daily-dish-the-curious-case-of-ashevilles-corey-dickerson/
Dumb question: Where is the extra 4M in the Pujols deal coming from? You point out he's getting 240M plus 10M for the personal services contract, but show 254M as the total value.
Maybe it is just me, but the idea of the best hitter of my generation playing his age 31+ years for the Miami Marlins has a silly feel to it. I mean, really? Do we have a historical example of a player widely-considered the best in his sport signing with a franchise that to that point had been considered less than first-rate? Would this be like if Ted Williams left the Red Sox and signed with the St. Louis Browns in 1950 or something?
Context alert. He was demanding a trade that offseason, iirc. I got the impression they put him on unconditional waivers to show him he really had no grounds for his belly-aching. This wasn't as much a case of the Red Sox trying to get rid of him as it was trying to put an employee in his place. Delusions of grandeur come with the narcissist package, yeah?
That is true, but we were debating his value "even if he can still hit" as was posed in the article.
There are a lot of narcissists out there. If they can hit, I want them on my team. They win. Manny's got his foibles, but, don't we all work with at least one guy like Manny? Aren't we able to just deal with that guy since he so frequently produces at a stellar rate?
Fantasy baseball question: What do the Diamondbacks do with Collin Cowgill? I see he's playing the AFL. Is he a future 4th-OF or injury replacement? Or does anyone think he'll have a starting role in 2012?
Love these. Thoughts on Felipe Paulino?
Russ Canzler of the Rays? I remember last year Dan Johnson came up late and contributed some before being let go this year. Is Canzler the same kind of guy, or does he have a chance at sticking around?
This is the first I've heard of Russ Canzler. I hate to hijack a comments section, but, since there aren't any other comments, why not - is Canzler a good prospect? Would the Rays really bring him up and give him some ABs?
Thoughts on Taylor Pastornicky?
I finished 196th. Out of 197. Ouch.
Do you know if BP will be ranking the top July 2 prospects? Can we expect more of these scouting reports? I love these.
Who is a better quick add in a deep NL-only league? Lyon or Padilla? Only have room for 1. Saves and Holds both scored.
Didn't Pearce just hit the DL? Probably should avoid him for now in NL-only leagues.
What? No more Prospectus Q&A? I'm crushed. I loved these. Seriously. David, thanks for these.
Is Goldschmidt strong defensively? How bad does his right-handedness hurt his long-term ability to play first base in the majors?
Didn't (don't?) most Yankee fans think the same regarding the Red Sox? "We've been playing these guys for 80 years. They're never gonna beat us." - Yogi Berra. I hated the common Yankee fan dismissiveness until 2004. Now I think it is hilarious.
You just convinced me: Mark Twain would be the world's greatest tweeter.
And an OBP under .300. Ouch. Guess I can drop him in my dynasty AL-only league...
Already ordered! Been playing OOTP since 2002 or 2003 and it gets better every year.
Just ran the PFM and see that QS and Holds have been added, which is awesome, but that the values for QS and Holds for all pitchers are zero.
Despite fearing ridicule and mocking, I'll propose - Michael Saunders?
I subconsciously use fantasy sports now to help me with terms like "ace". Basically, I want top-five position players at every position in fantasy baseball. When it comes to the pitching staff, because we use a lot more SPs than 2Bmen, that number jumps to fifteen. In other words, I want as many of the top-fifteen SPs in the game. A starter who is in the conversation for being a top-15 starter is an "ace" in my book*.
It passes the smell test. Each team in baseball has their own #1 starter. I think the term "ace" is more selective than #1 starter. We can say that maybe half of those #1 starters are "aces" and that teams can have more than one ace.
* note: this means there are possibly more than 15 of them. If your personal #15 and #16 guys are Haren and Carpenter, for example, and you think they are about equal, they can both be considered "aces".
Just my three cents.
I'm a type-1 and can't imagine being able to pitch like a first-round talent with an uncontrolled blood sugar. I'm sorry Mr. Covey has the disease, but I'm selfishly a little relieved to have another "diabetic brother" in the bigs. God forbid my kids are ever diagnosed, but if they are, it would be a wonderful thing to be able to point to Morrow and Covey as type-1 diabetics who could still succeed in my favorite sport. Thanks for this article.
I can't find it now, but if memory serves, there was a Prospectus Q&A with a minor league reliever who was asked what stats the coaching staff had them pay attention to. ERA was deemed useless, while K-rates and efficiency (I believe) were most important.
The point is, if a front office values certain advanced metrics over ERA, wins, and BA, players will perform to those preferred metrics in an effort to be promoted. I believe this will eventually make its way further into the MSM since so many announcers make their way to the booth.
Today's players are told to focus on specific statistics while coming up through the minors, and those stats are usually thinks like K/BB and FIP. The MSM will just be a generation or two behind - Zach Greinke famously said he follows his FIP. Well, when Zach takes over for Orel Hershiser in the booth, we'll get the new(er) perspective. Of course, by then, there will be a whole new slew of stats to follow...
Part of the cost of employing Wagner/Saito instead of Gonzalez/Soriano was the high draft pick (#20) they lost signing Wagner. For a guy I'd be confident saying will pitch, at most, 60 innings, was it worth losing that pick? That's debatable, I guess, but certainly another cost to consider when evaluating the risk in this exercise, I think.
Very cool. I especially love the "out of baseball" frowny face in the ten year forecast. Man, that cracks me up for some reason. I like.
I'd guess: "Before you ask if Miggy's overblown drinking episode last season should push him into the yellow or red, the answer is no"
I liked the article and am interested in hearing more on how agents affect baseball day-to-day. I do have one question. I'm not sure if its worth a whole article, but, it has been pointed out in several places that a certain super-agent seems to use a certain SI/MLBNetwork reporter to float stories that impact negotiations and in return gives that reporter first scoop info when a deal is done. Does the "scouting community" frown on a scout-reporter relationship that could be too close? Or is this the sort of thing that is just "part of the business"? I can't accept "insider info" from the reporter because I know he's a mouthpiece for the agent. This is probably a question best asked of a reporter instead of an agent, but I'm curious to hear more about the scout-reporter relationship.
Thanks again for the piece. I'm looking forward to more.
I love the logic. I wonder if we can take it farther - why leave this to just the 8th inning? Why couldn't the Mets, for example, have decided against giving K-Rod his big contract before last year, and instead use a ROOGY/LOOGY combo as their combination LF/RF/closer?
With a 9th-inning lead, they could have brought in Feliciano to pitch to lefties (career 214/279/302) and Putz to pitch against righties (career 221/290/296). I know Putz didn't fill expectations last year, but, going into the year, that system would have provided great savings employing two specialists over employing one closer.
Kevin, can we get your read on Austin Jackson? How many stars? And where would he have ranked on the Yankees and Tigers lists?