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Surely there were bad baseball movies made before 1993--has the world forgotten the great Joe E. Brown?
What many BP subscribers may be wondering is how all these human prognosticators fared against the PFM projections (standard leagues, most typical hitter/pitcher split, positional adjustment and and sgp level on, as of the Friday before opening day).
Seems like the Cards are setting up Martinez to follow the career path of Joba Chamberlain and/or Jenrry Mejia.
You describe Marco Estrada as "tatterific". Did you mean "taterific"? Sometimes spellcheck is no help at all. (btw, my spellcheck doesn't like "spellcheck".)
What has become of the graphic that used to accompany this column?
The chances of Detroit making the playoffs went down, but their chances of making the World Series actually went up. That demonstrates the importance during the playoffs of a team's top three starters.
Was this the last update, or will there be one more post-Opening Day?
With 46 games to go, the Brewers are projected to win 20 more games, but Henderson, the closer, is projected to save zero, and Axford, the set-up guy, three. That means 85% of Brewers wins will not come with saves, and that all wins that are saves will not be saved by the closer. Highly unlikely.
Why is this article not linked to Jeff Francoeur's card? I didn't find it until I looked up Ken Tanaka.
This is not the first time I've been frustrated by BP's search function. There are Top Ten prospects who are not linked to their team's Top Ten list, and some rather important players with links to no articles later than 2009.
Interesting read, but none of these guys are still available in my AL-only and NL-only leagues. Rogers was taken last week and Iwakuma has been on my roster since the All-Star break, where he's finally beginning to repay me for my patience.
Turned out Ryan Braun couldn't stick at 3B either. Wonder what became of that guy?
(Just kidding, really. One counter-example does not an argument make, and Bogaerts doesn't have Braun's speed, for one thing. But you never know.)
"Likely chosen largely on the basis of his impressive 1942 season, '43 was Siebert's lone All-Star appearance and came while Jimmie Foxx missed the season."
For a long time I've been wondering why statistically savvy baseball writers, who continually warn us about the pitfalls of small sample sizes, all insist on using less than three months of statistics to determine All-Star selection, thus guaranteeing that nothing a player does between late June and the end of the season will ever have any effect on his qualification for the All-Star game.
I've never settled on a consistent method for filling a ballot myself, but my first impulse is too combine statistics from both the current and previous seasons.
One lazy man's system to determine the most competitive starting lineups would be to go through BP's depth charts and choose the players with the highest projected WAR for the balance of the season. As of a few weeks ago, this would have given us Carlos Santana (less than 500 career AB and currently hitting .226/.356/.409) as the AL's starting catcher. I might vote him (that OPS shows he's a damn good hitter for a catcher even in an off year), but I'd have a hard time convincing fellow fans to follow suit.
Of course, I don't really care which team wins this exhibition game, so there are other legitimate reasons for voting for starters than simply who has the best chance to play well. But that's a whole other topic.
If Kendrys Morales is going to miss the rest of the season, why is he still projected to get 75% of the Angels' 1B plate appearances?
With all the media distractions available, it's a wonder there ARE any kids born after 2000!
What's a "book"?
Last year, Pedroia's strikeout rate and home runs per fly ball were almost twice their historical averages. As these ratios return to normal, and Pedroia works his way back from his foot injury (any lingering effects of which may cause him to alter his swing), it is not inconceivable that his power production will suffer.
If he gets off to a slow start, look for him to make a conscious effort to reverse last year's free-swinging trend.
As a possible answer to my own question; I assume that the sort function was removed in order to make the program work faster (especially during auctions with the inflation calculator is in use, necessitating constant refreshment).
It occurred to me as soon as I posted my query that I could sort the CSV file alphabetically, enter salaries in an adjacent Excel column, resort by dollar value, and copy the salaries into the PFM: a slightly annoying extra step, but not too terribly time-consuming.
Last year I was able to sort PFM output by player name; this made plugging in keeper salaries much easier. I can't seem to find this capability on this year's version. Am I missing something?
I didn't read the report to which you're referring, but it seems that a large number of analysts are predicting that the Red Sox, with all their big off-season acquisitions (Gonzalez, Crawford, Jenks) should win their division by one of the biggest margins in the majors.
Is PECOTA just inherently conservative, or does Boston have some Achilles heel (inconsistent starting pitching, perhaps) that has gone underreported this winter?
The last couple of comments seem to be discussing the PFM as if it's up and running, but I still get the "Under construction" message. Am I missing something?
The fact that a player nicknamed after a "Toy Story" character is now eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot makes me feel really, really old.
I'll second that. I'm 46, and not in the decline phase of anything. Then again, I never had much of an ascent!
You mean that now I have to compete with YOU in the job market? That's not fair!
No saves allocated anywhere.
Whether or not the bribes affected Jackson's play is immaterial. The fact is, he took bribes, and what's more important, he was aware that his teammates were taking bribes, so in essence he was conspiring to throw the series, whether he intentionally played badly or not. In fact, by playing as well as he did, he had to worry not only about the law, but also about the Mob. If the White Sox had won the 1919 World Series, chances are Joe Jackson would not have lived to see the 1920 season.
(Or maybe I've seen to many Hollywood boxing movies.)
If you are simply comparing the skills of one pitcher to those of another, the fact that their QERAs are artificially low shouldn't matter. If you are trying predict a single pitcher's balance-of-year ERA, you might try computing the difference between league-average QERA(bb) and league-average QERA(ubb), and adjusting individual projected ERAs accordingly.
My guess is that over time the percentage of fly balls that become home runs (like the percentage of ground balls that become base hits) is pretty much the same for all pitchers.
There may be slight adjustments that can be made for park effects, infield vs. outfield fly balls, etc., but they may not be significant.
Sean Gallagher's counting stats don't seem to jibe with his historic ratios. 98 strikeouts in 75 innings? 127 hits in 75 innings? 16 homers?
Either IP should be 125, not 75, or the rest of the stats should be divided by 1.67.
Aww, ten minutes later and I'm already embarrassed by the snarkiness of my last post. It's late, and I've been trying to gather a lot of info in a little span of time. I have been more than pleased with what I've found here since I subscribed.
More politely put (I hope), can we expect, if not this season, then sometime in the future, more in-season updates to BP's projections? Or is there someplace else on the website that would be more helpful to me?
Scott Podsednik, who is now starting in CF for the White Sox, is still slated for 10% of the playing time in the Rockies outfield. Is BP still in business, or is this just a zombie site, staffed by folks who took our money and then packed it in after opening day?
I don't think I understand the concept of "user centric inflation." From the instructions, I assumed that this feature adjusted the values based on which players were frozen, on my team and on others. So, if I were to change the setting from 0 to 5 without entering any freezes, it should not yet have any effect on dollar values.
Of course, this is not the way it works. Changing the user-centric setting has a marked effect on valuation (particularly of closers), even if "use inflation" is turned off. Consequently, I am befuddled.
No, Mr. nschaef was not serious. He was being ironic.