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Since when does Bengie Molina hit like an MVP?
So if Bengie Molina has a lifetime .295 average against LHP, and a Home average that's 6 points higher than his away average, (.292 & .298, presumably), how does he have a projected .301 average against CC (.247 lifetime against RHB)? Also consider CC is probably closer to his prime than Bengie.
Is this all Park Factor?
Agreed. Order doesn't matter when calculating probabilities. If the Yankees win 4 of the first 6, it doesn't matter what Cliff Lee would have done in the last game.
The place that it might matter is in having Lee unavailable in the bullpen in the 7th game. Because he's not going to come out of the bullpen in the 1st game.
That is, he could go (G1 Start, G5 Start, G7 Relief), but he wouldn't go (G1 Relief, G3 Start, G7 Start). This is the real place where you lose marginal Lee innings.
In Game One the Rays were favored 54/46. This time the Rangers are favored 57/43. Could you let us know what caused this big swing?
I would LOVE if you made one of your spreadsheets available to look at. Absolutely freaking love it.
Doesn't it strike you as odd to have this story filed and published on ESPN on-time, only to have it arrive here out of date?
I find when reading this that I have to flip back and forth between the updated Postseason Odds to see if the analysis is still correct, as one day can have a big impact.
Yesterday the Red Sox lost 7% off their playoff odds. The Cardinals lost 9(!)% off theirs!
I know that exclusivity for the first 24 hours is probably part of the bargain that you struck with ESPN, but jeeze.
"And it’s much more likely that the probabilities vary wildly from inning to inning. Why? Because managers lump their best hitters together in the lineup, meaning that one third of the lineup is the thumping heart of perfect-game murders, just waiting to destroy today’s bid for unlikelihood. And the more the probability varies from one inning to the next, the less likely perfect games get, even if we keep the average probabilities the same."
In our mythical world, the order of the lineup should have no impact on the probability of a perfect game. If you shuffle the best hitters together, it will change the average probability. That is, putting your best hitters together increases the average probability of a perfect inning.
Please write out why you're against corporations. It would be a fascinating read, and certainly a lot better than snide comments which some of your readers disagree with. Try to ground your opposition in something called "economics".
I think that there is a premium placed on higher win players. That said, there is also a large benefit to diversifying your assets, and lowering your risk portfolio is something that is probably about as valuable as the first effect.
Think about it this way -- the top-heavy Mets fell apart last year when injuries hit. However, the Red Sox were also hit by the injury bug and they were better able to compensate for the loss of lower-WARP players.
Thus, while I agree with your conclusion (MORP should be linear), I disagree with how you got there.
You are nuts Farber. Completely, totally, bonkers. Just because the Yankees are the #1 team in NYC, doesn't make them beloved everywhere else.
Are you really making the claim that the Yankees are more universally-loved, or whatever, than the Cubs? Honestly?
He doesn't want the BP subscribers to mess up the odds in Vegas for him.
4 K's for CC? Who says his strikeout rate is down and he has lost his stuff. Purely a function of playing in the AL East instead of the NL Central.
Why does Jason Churchill suppose that every team passed on all these amazing catchers? Does he have anything to say in the "Miss" section other than that these teams skipped on the catchers? Please!