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CRP13
1359 comments | 1513 total rating | 1.11 average rating
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CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 3

Since your entire rambling diatribe seems based on the idea that old players, far past their peak, can be expected to perform equivalently to last season, well...

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Great post. A quibble: The Astros drafted Freiman in the Rule 5 and then waived him after Spring Training, after which Oakland claimed him.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

One guy I've been keying on is Ozhaino Albies. Too far away to make the list? Or just no standout fantasy tools?

Feb 26, 2015 5:59 AM on Part 2: 1-50 (plus one)
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Not to mention the future value of Kyle Smith, for whom the Astros traded Maxwell. He's a real prospect with a ML future. This stuff is more complicated than my High School quantum mechanics class!

Feb 19, 2015 10:25 AM on The Last Shall Be First
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

The only fiasco was Aiken's elbow.

Feb 19, 2015 10:22 AM on The Last Shall Be First
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Worth noting that the book isn't written on a lot of these guys, particularly Pearce and McHugh, who can continue to rack up WARP for their claiming team. Also, the Cubs traded Valbuena to the Astros, so how does one account for the added value in WARP of Dexter Fowler that the Cubs gained by trading Valbuena, who they had claimed? Good post.

Feb 19, 2015 10:22 AM on The Last Shall Be First
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

wtfzorz where is Japhet Amador???

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

"FIRST," yelled every fan of every team who thinks that all prospects are can't-miss and that their GM should sign Moncada or immediately be lit on fire.

Feb 05, 2015 6:01 AM on Top 50 Shortstops
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Yeah, I need to clarify, because my sentence structure sucked. Rasmus has played CF his whole career, and I'm pretty darn sure he's being considered for that role. All the LF stuff was my own speculation. Marisnick is a fantastic CF defensively, so i'd love to see him there for that reason alone. But there's a lot of moving parts, and Rasmus needs to be in the discussion. That was the only reason I brought it up.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

@Because college players still use aluminum bats?@

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Great list, as usual. One note on your 25-and-under. The Astros have indicated that Colby Rasmus will play CF, with Springer in RF, leaving some combination of Marisnick, Robbie Grossman, and/or Gattis in LF. So either Singleton or Marisnick is likely to start in AAA, perhaps even for the full season, and there's a solid argument that both should be there.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 8

It always makes me a little bummed to see somebody my height and 20 lbs lighter called as "burly". I guess I'll go eat some kale.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

"The ship hasn’t quite sailed on Folty’s chances of starting, but Ponce de Leon has loaded most of his cargo and rum, and his crew is pulling up the anchor." Excellent! Nicely done.

Jan 15, 2015 10:50 AM on Astros Get Evan
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

No Jon Singleton? No nod at all to the fact he was the top 1B prospect a year ago?

Jan 13, 2015 5:31 AM on First Basemen
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

Can somebody please explain Tyler Flowers to me, and how he's not a terrible fantasy option? I mean this with no snark - I keep seeing his name pop up. But he can't hit. He doesn't walk. He trips into a few home runs, but he's 28 years old and has been pretty abysmal for four seasons.

Jan 08, 2015 5:35 AM on The Top 50 Catchers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

By what stats? Standard 5x5? If so, then that makes perfect sense. In an OBP league, he's probably more valuable.

Jan 06, 2015 12:50 PM on Catchers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -2

Interesting. He was approximately average for the position last season (300+ PA cutoff) is a double-digit homer guy even in "down" years, is only 27 years old, and if he can get his batting average up even 10 points he'd be a good on-base guy (which matters in OBP leagues). Since catchers rarely matter much in counting stats in terms of impacting fantasy teams making the playoffs (at least compared to all other batting positions), I would think that one of the better OBP catchers, especially given his age and the playing time he's received during the past few years, would rank higher. I'd not have him high on the list. But bottom of the two-star or top of the one-star seems appropriate. I'm not invested in Avila, I'm just surprised that a catcher who's averaged over 400 PA/season and has a career line of .247/.345/.407 would be ranked on this list somewhere.

Jan 06, 2015 8:58 AM on Catchers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

Alex Avila?

Jan 06, 2015 7:32 AM on Catchers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

J.D. Davis? The track record for college bats is good, comparatively, and the Astros seem to think he'll stick at 3B.

Jan 06, 2015 7:13 AM on 2014 Draft Class
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 7

I don't understand any argument in which people think Craig Biggio isn't a hall of famer, but Derek Jeter is. Both were "compilers", but Biggo wasn't a Yankee.

Jan 04, 2015 7:16 AM on The 2015 Results
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Right. Can you think of any way to tell from the data? Otherwise, it becomes a circular problem. Great post, btw.

Nov 18, 2014 3:33 PM on Against the Grind
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Russell, could this be affected by pitchers "settling down" over the course of the season and making it tougher on the hitters? As in, their muscle memory through repetition improves their command slightly, enough to cause this effect? Worth noting that there are some impressive names on those clubs at the time, including Wainwright, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Latos, Richard, Halladay, Romero (when he didn't suck), Carpenter, Lohse, Westbrook, Garcia.... Take 2014, League ERA by month: Mar/Apr: 3.92 May: 3.78 Jun: 3.77 Jul: 3.77 Aug: 3.71 Sep/Oct: 3.60 Just curious if that might be an alternate explanation for the increased difficulty for hitters as they experience the grind. Of course, it could be a chicken/egg thing where the batters exhaustion is affecting pitcher ERA...

Nov 18, 2014 6:44 AM on Against the Grind
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I struggle to understand how Dallas Keuchel only has 1.1 PWARP. Particularly considering how, by rival measures, he was the 10th-most valuable pitcher in the American League in 2014.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

Thanks for the article on behalf of Astros fans everywhere (yes, we exist). On McHugh, I'll disagree pretty strongly. His stuff plays up because the pitching coach is a disciple of using effective velocity. He's not as good as he was last year (BABIP), but his CB/SL work well when he elevates his fastball. He's also completely ditched his sinker, which makes him a totally different pitcher than the guy who came up through the minors and played with Rockies & Mets. Not being an apologist. He's a strong mid-rotation pitcher right now, and was consistent as heck.

Nov 01, 2014 6:02 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

And I'm not talking about Twitter, FWIW

Aug 03, 2014 5:04 PM on Mike Foltynewicz
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

You must be getting makeup reports from different sources than a lot of other people are.

Aug 03, 2014 5:04 PM on Mike Foltynewicz
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Chronicle reports he hit 97 last night. Potato Potahto. In a couple comments you've indicated that you've only seen two of his starts. I find it surprising that just two looks would prompt this statement: "I find it hard to even project him to become a major-league starter at this point." Especially when you preface it by describing his "impressive raw stuff", three noteworthy injuries, and dominant performances prior to this year. Just seems reactionary and dramatic based on a very small sample, and I think that's why some of the comments are pushing back against this article.

Jul 25, 2014 9:48 AM on What's Wrong With Appel
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 3

I dunno. I don't like turning to speculation to conclude that a pitcher's ceiling has dropped after a small nagging-injury-riddled sample in the CAL league. In the most annoying of ironic coincidences (from the standpoint of a writer), Appel pitched his best start last night against a good offense, hitting 96 in his final fastball (pitch 73), earning 7 K's and 0 BB's. The Houston Chronicle reports (and as much as we miss Zachary Levine, Evan Drellich was a strong add to balance the inanity of the rest of their sports staff) that the team has been working on Appel's mechanics during his skipped start last week, and that sounds like it had an impact. It's no secret around here that prospects aren't finished products. Appel is still a prospect, and thus requires development, or else he'd be in the bigs already. He's still got TOR stuff and a history of using it successfully. He was dominant last season in Quad Cities; outside of one stinker start, his ERA was 2.34, and so I don't see reason to pound a nail into his front line ceiling's coffin after fewer than 80 professional innings pitched. Appel's need for development is no different than with any other prospect - even Kris Bryant currently has a 'needing development' issue: a 67% contact rate this season and 30% whiff/swing rate, which is even worse than Brandon Wood's, George Springer's, and a host of other players who have seen their ceilings questioned because of those issues. Appel's situation is highlighted by his pitiful run prevention counting stats and smaller sample of appearances, which try to give lie to his decent peripherals. Note that I'm typing this without my Homer Hat on. It's just too soon to draw any conclusions other than that Appel needs more development than national prognosticators predicted.

Jul 25, 2014 5:52 AM on What's Wrong With Appel
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Fun list, but a lot of this doesn't jive with your scouting reports. Take Appel, for example. His "latest report" lists two separate max fastball velocities (94 and 97) and lists him as a probable 4th-starter. A ranking of 34 seems VERY high to me, if you truly consider him to be a back-end starter at best.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

I'm intentionally trolling here, but "his early solid exploits at the plate"? There is no way to positively spin his offensive performance from AAA on up.

Jun 17, 2014 1:41 PM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -2

Understood. Like I said, fun exercise. But that pick...I just don't get it, no matter how it's explained.

Jun 17, 2014 9:40 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

And yet... Zunino: "...he's the Mariners’ no. 1 catcher. We've discovered that Zunino has special framing and blocking abilities...If his on-base skills develop, he could be one of the hidden elite players in baseball." Correa: "Correa is a face-of-the-franchise shortstop...that’s why he has such a strong case for the current no. 1 overall prospect ranking." Buxton: "...he’s still the premier talent from the 2012 draft...has a chance to be the best player in the game at his peak." It doesn't sound like this redraft took the top talent #1 overall. Ultimately, it doesn't matter...this is no more than a fun thought exercise. But the Astros' selection doesn't jive with either the club's needs or your own descriptions of the players. "#1 catcher for the Mariners" is not the same thing as "strong case for #1 overall prospect" and "best player in the game at his peak"

Jun 17, 2014 7:55 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 5

I'm a pitch framing guy, big time (especially since Mike Fast joined the Astros and brought his emphasis on that with him...there's been a noticeable improvement by both catchers and all of the farm in this area). But respectfully, I can't wrap my brain around the idea that Zunino's pitch framing and the promise of MAYBE some plate discipline are so much more valuable than Castro's that they negate the loss in offense AND the eventual production provided by a Correa, Buxton, or even Gausman.

Jun 17, 2014 7:01 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 6

Not to chew too hard, but you lost me with the very first pick. The Astros already had Jason Castro, a fine catcher who is also a good pitch framer, and who was a legitimate All-Star in 2013, not just a courtesy token write-in for the Astros. Even despite this year's slump, Castro has also been a superior batter than Zunino for every year of their overlapping careers. I don't see how Zunino makes sense for the Astros either at the time OR in retrospect. So once I was baffled by the first pick, it threw me off for the rest of your redraft.

Jun 17, 2014 6:27 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

FWIW, I had him at 7 and was overruled by my compatriots.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Crawfish Boxes had him at 14 going into this season. We've been incredibly high on him since he was drafted. Most of us think he'll be the long-term DH or LF, starting in mid-2015.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Zachary, there have been other reports of Norris being difficult when he was in Houston, and recently the Chronicle quoted him being a sourpuss towards the Astros again (pretty well-covered story nationally, actually). Can you shed some light on if Norris was particularly cantankerous when you covered the Astros?

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

"If they'd called him up when he was ready". This is the implication I keep seeing that I disagree with. A player coming out of rehab and suspension, who was a disaster on the field last year? He wasn't ready earlier in the year, and there's a good argument to be made that he could still be in the minors now, with very little rationalization. So the monkeying with the clock/leverage argument is based on shaky ground in the first place, in my opinion.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

Rodon looks like he's using his arm muscles to fling the ball more than the other two. Aiken looks like his arm and the ball are just going for a ride, with his body doing all the work.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

That's quite an UPSIDE score for Altuve. 265.7 Greatest-all-time? Or typo? :)

May 16, 2014 10:24 AM on UPSIDE at Second Base
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

DeShields is not a 2B anymore. I know you're just looking at last year's stats, but he's an OF now.

May 16, 2014 10:24 AM on UPSIDE at Second Base
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I know this is totally based on "upside", but is age per level factored in at all? Bird and Vogelbach have been great, but Singleton is putting up similar numbers, but is only one year older yet three levels higher than those two guys.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Only one of which was solid contact, his double against a mop-up reliever when the Astros were 9 runs behind.

May 07, 2014 8:58 AM on Rites of Springer
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

Watching Springer swing is painful. Every swing looks like he's trying to shatter the bat with sheer momentum, regardless of contact made. At least once a game, he appears to lose his balance from over-swinging. His contact rate is similar to Carter's, yes, but there the similarities end. Carter appears to just have poor hand-eye coordination - his swing is controlled; it looks more like a wrist flick than a true baseball swing. Springer looks more like he's trying to get candy out of a Kevlar pinata. Some of us expected this type of struggle when he was in the minors, but witnessing it is cringe-worthy.

May 07, 2014 8:57 AM on Rites of Springer
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

One tool? C'mon, I've heard that he's a very nice guy.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Telvin Nash, #100. Sure, he's probably got 40+ HR power. But that 40% strikeout rate below AA...yikes. I love this list because it's so different.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

You should. Great prospects. Martin = highly-touted HS CF that was drafted in 2013, and Smith is a #1-#2 ceiling SP that was traded from KC last year for Justin Maxwell, I believe.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 8

"I know there is more to scouting than stats" There's your answer right there!

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

At some point, longevity has to matter. If you go down the list of all-time traditional stat records by right-handed hitters, you don't have to go very far on any of them (except HR) to find Craig Biggio. We all love love love advanced stats around here, but by the traditional measures by which every player in the hall of fame was elected, (which do matter, despite what we'd like to pretend), Biggio's exclusion makes as much sense as a banana peel on a rhinoceros.

Jan 04, 2013 1:48 PM on The Hall of Fame Ballot
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

Biggio: Shouldn't longevity and sustained excellence over a career be a consideration for a HOF vote? 61.2 career WARP? (how many players can boast an average WARP of over 3.0 for 20 seasons??) Seven all-star selections (at different positions, no less)? I don't get the ambiguity on his case.

Jan 03, 2013 6:13 AM on The Hall of Fame Ballot
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Ken Rosenthal reported today that Veras will close for the Astros. I won't claim to be prophetic, but....

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

Such as who?

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

So wrong. There is a great excuse for it. The previous ownership destroyed the ML club and minor league farm system in some deluded opinion that numbers don't matter at all, and only aging veterans could create a championship. If the Astros spent $100 million on the available free agents this offseason, it still wouldn't make them a playoff team. Robbing Peter to pay Drayton is what got them into this mess, and spending now is not the answer. Building a foundation to allow spending later is.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 10

The Astros took two unnamed receivers, turned them into guys who earned saves, and maximized their returns. Melancon and Lopez yielded Lowrie, Weiland, White, and Gillingham. My guess is the plan is the same with Veras, and some old-school GM will bite and further stock the farm system - which is very much in the Astros' plan, and is probably why they signed him in the first place. Pena is most likely a clubhouse signing. Reportedly, everybody in the majors loves the guy, he's well-spoken and a great influence on the younger guys. As numbers-people (as most of us are who frequent this site), it's really easy to dismiss or overlook the influence a positive, mature, and professional person can have on impressionable (and or downtrodden) young men trying to figure out what it means to be a major league ball player. Neither of these signings were about adding wins, in my opinion.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

That's a stretch, but just in my opinion. From reading the scouting info above, it looks very top-heavy.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

See below, hindsight counts to the average fan and media member. I don't disagree with what you're saying, but none of that counts to the uninformed masses.

Dec 13, 2012 11:12 AM on Moore Problems
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I think you misunderstood me. I'm not saying Moore was wrong in all of his decisions. I'm just saying that the average fan and KC media member aren't out of line by being down on him all the time. Hindsight counts to the average fan, and in hindsight, a large number of his high-profile decisions were a disaster.

Dec 13, 2012 11:11 AM on Moore Problems
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

I think that's a pretty unfair assessment of Royals fans and media by the rival GM (I say this as having absolutely no ties to KC). As an outsider, I would be livid if my GM made such horrendous moves as he has. $16 million to Jeff Francoeur? $36 million to Jose Guillen? $55 million to Gil Meche? And then there are the trades. Minor League player of the year PLUS others for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30? How about Melky Cabrera for Jon Sanchez? Even the small ones - how did Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois contribute last season? From my perspective, why shouldn't the media and fans pile on? What has he done except continually lay speed bumps in front of the team?

Dec 13, 2012 5:52 AM on Moore Problems
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Dang that's a long list of players who should have been good, but really weren't.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

"You know how they told you if you didn’t get off your ass and do something in life you’d be a loser?" Now there's a sentence your editors at the Chronicle probably wouldn't have let you pen. So glad to have a local guy writing for my favorite baseball website.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Because he was only $1.2M and a reliever of his quality as a Free Agent would command $5 million per year for multiple years or more. That's my guess.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 4

" He has struck out 11 and walked 10" THAT'S the Daniel Cabrera we all know and loved.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 4

To apply a hometown perspective, which trade had a higher cost/benefit? Johnson, Reyes, Buehrle, Buck, and Bonifacio for Escobar and the prospects mentioned above? or Hunter Pence for Singleton, Cosart, Santana, and Zeid? Anybody else here feel like the Marlins should have gotten more in return? Early rumors had them getting Arencibia, but they wind up with...Jeff Mathis. Honestly...

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Jeffrey Loria has an island for sale in New York for the low price of $24 dollars.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

And they're, you know, ranked one to ten.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

How awesome is it that Ronald Reagan has a PECOTA card?

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 6

I DON'T MISS THE STARS

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 6

Thanks guys, it's obvious to me that the "team effort" approach to this article has paid off in spades. That all three of you answered my questions with real observations and data makes BP even more credible as a source of prospect knowledge because it's not just a "one guy" take. Well-done.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Question: Is there such thing as a "low risk" prospect? Any recent examples?

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 4

Thumbs up for "no stars". They are an arbitrary judgement call anyway. Add your own stars!

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

Seriously? If Nash were ranked as high as #30 in this system, I'd be surprised.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Nice work on this guys. I'm solidly anti-Villar, but other than that I agree with the rankings (not that my opinion matters). For what it's worth, what's your take on Preston Tucker? Was projected to go in rounds 2-4, fell to 7. Raked in college, raked in pro ball so far, but scouts don't seem to like him because of his body. Any thoughts?

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Quick follow-up. Though Houston has an improved farm system, they're crazy-thin at the upper levels in starting pitchers. I could very easily see them paying two or three free agent starters. They can afford it and it's the quickest path back to .500. They need that if for no other reason than to get fans into the ballpark. I'm particularly thinking they could offer attractive contracts to guys like Marcum or Villanueva who still have something to prove.

Nov 04, 2012 6:10 PM on The 50 Best Free Agents
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Sorry, it wasn't supposed to sound like I was implying an attack on Houston. I'm no homer. I was just surprised because they probably have the least committed payroll of all the MLB teams and they have the most incentive to grab some players and flip them either at the deadline or in the next off-season.

Nov 04, 2012 6:08 PM on The 50 Best Free Agents
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

OK 15 million. Big spenders. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tmxTtDiWidNuZUZLxaZIu5Q&output=html My point is still valid.

Nov 04, 2012 11:26 AM on The 50 Best Free Agents
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

The Astros now have 31 players on their 40-man, and a committed payroll of about $3 million. No prediction of their signing ANY of the top 50 free agents? Really?

Nov 04, 2012 9:10 AM on The 50 Best Free Agents
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

"It's lololololol but whatever." That needs to be your new catchphrase.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I did too. Sorry, I meant I agreed with Peter's second paragraph.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I agree with this, but I also wish more writers and editors were concerned with readability of the prose itself. Why not ask for the moon? (NO reflection on this article...just a general gripe that the skill of editing does not seem to be as important as it used to be)

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

I didn't read your post as if you were attacking anybody. I know you're aware of some recent firebombings of ideas and personal character within the sabermetric community. As an interested but uninvolved party, I appreciate that in this post you treated Passan's approach with respect even while pointing out the potential pitfalls of such an approach.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

This is a fantastic article, but I'm not sure I understand your overall point. I do have a few thoughts though. First, I agree with the statement that narratives are critical for explaining complex ideas to the masses. As fascinated as I am by the theory behind sabermetrics, the narrative aspect is why I read Baseball Prospectus every day but struggle to make myself an avid reader of The Book Blog. To me, The Blog is like an academic journal while Baseball Prospectus is more like Popular Mechanics. In both pubs, the authors clearly understand the deepest details of subject, but in only one do they try to relate those details in a way that is palatable for interested parties who don't have Masters Degrees. It's hard to overlook how important Narrative is to baseball and baseball writers, because baseball is a game that even the most dim-witted fellows in America can enjoy. Thus, a discussion of baseball stats without narrative becomes unreadable for 99.9% of the audience (full disclosure: that's a made-up stat). It's really easy to point out that Yankee-Bashing, umpire praising, and Anibal-loving is oversimplifying something that can be described as a complex system, but the truth is that if professional writers (those guys who do nothing but cover the sport on a superficial level) tried to include all narrative aspects of an event in their stories, they'd completely lose their short-attention audiences. Your article is 4,020 words, but you probably couldn't have gotten away with such a digression-laden story (albeit very pointed and entertaining digressions) when writing for a newspaper or major media outlet like Yahoo. So, while I agree with what you say in this article and am no fan of Passan's passive-aggression towards anybody who disagrees with him, I personally feel that narrative is critical if sabermetricians want to achieve their real goal, which is widespread adoption of statistics that MEAN something. (By the length of this comment, it's pretty obvious I would make a terrible newspaper columnist because I tried to cover all my points rather than focusing on one zinger like Passan did in his article.)

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Why would anybody be any kind of fit? The whole premise of trading A-Rod is silly, because it presumes that the rest of the league is New York's bitch.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I agree with this completely, and I am what you would probably call "a person of faith." But I wouldn't shove it down your throat and wouldn't you to do it to me. So no particular instances of Hamilton being overbearing prompted the description; just more of a general feeling that the guys around him weary of it after a while?

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Explain "alienating faith," please. I've been around people who obnoxiously throw their particular brand of religiousness in my face and demand I agree with them or perish in a cloud of flaming sulfur. I've also been around extremely faithful people who are willing to live and let live. Is Hamilton's faith alienating just because you disagree with the intensity of it? Or is he one of those pushy, noisy types that demands validation and conversion? Just curious.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Oh yes, Altuve actually blows into his gloves as part of his adjustment routine between pitches.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

I've been watching the Astros all year (I know, I know). Stephani and Russell, you really ought to take a hard look at Jose Altuve's between-pitch routine. I love the lil' guy but he adjusts his hat more than a milliner. And he does the batting glove thing. Unvelcro left, tighten, velcro. Unvelcro right, tighten, velcro. Adjust hat again. It's interminable. Sadly, in the only videos I can find, the camera operators get bored halfway through his routine (you only get to see the first set of batting glove and helmet adjustments) and pan away to look at birds or something for a few moments before returning to the AB. Video here.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0
 
CRP13
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This is exactly right. If you go to Astros-centric sites like crawfishboxes or astroscounty, you'll see general agreement that indiscriminate spending on the Jayson Werths and Barry Zitos of the world is not a good idea in the near future. But if you go to the Houston Chronicle site or to astros.com...wooo. You'd learn that bringing back Berkman, Oswalt, and Pence would turn the Astros into a World Series shoe-in. Because, goodness knows, those three guys are more talented than anybody in the AL West.

 
CRP13
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It's true too. My poor wife followed a great salmon recipe the other night, and followed it well. The fish was well cooked except there was apparently something wrong with the pre-cooked specimen. It came out covered and run-through with some sort of gelatinous slime that reminded us of the library scene from Ghostbusters, and turned an otherwise collection of nice flavors into an addition to our trash bin. It was like this particular specimen had already spawned up the river and was half-decomposed when it was caught. Salmon are fraught with peril, and a lot of people just don't like the way they taste anyway. A risky move to impress a female.

 
CRP13
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Talk about Pandora's box. I'm interested to see if you can make something of this.

 
CRP13
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One last Haiku for the road?

Sep 05, 2012 7:35 PM on Changing of the Guard
 
CRP13
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Steve's analogy of comparing #want to Batman was one of the funniest things I've heard in a while. Going to miss the podcast and those moments of having to cover my mouth in my office at work to keep from busting out laughing. Nice work guys on all the podcasting.

 
CRP13
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I've never been more disappointed when a writer left than I was when Kevin left. Oddly though, I've never been more excited/interested to see what BP does about it. So I'm game to experience whatever you guys come up with, and am looking forward to it.

Sep 04, 2012 6:48 AM on Changing of the Guard
 
CRP13
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Thank you for breaking the internet

Sep 01, 2012 7:35 AM on Goodbye to the Internet
 
CRP13
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This is the most amazing and bittersweet news ever. The baseball junkie in me is going to sorely miss your work here. The Astros fan in me is over the moon. --Conflicted in Houston

Aug 31, 2012 7:56 PM on Goodbye to the Internet
 
CRP13
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Sam, you've quickly risen to my "top two" list of favorite writers at this site.

Aug 29, 2012 7:13 AM on Measuring Hustle
 
CRP13
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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus comment-hood.

 
CRP13
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Some day, I want a copy of your collected works, so I can put the 20-teens into perspective; the decade is wonderfully summed up by your brand of fatalistic cynicism. If you haven't been exposed to the newspaper comic strip Pearls Before Swine, you should check it out. It's the only example of writing besides yours that I think captures modern American apathy-born-of-abjection quite the same way you do. As usual, I enjoyed your post.

 
CRP13
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Good lord.

 
CRP13
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I think DeShields was actually promoted to AA Corpus, not Lancaster.

 
CRP13
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What, no Astros? They made a zillion moves, surely their playoff odds went from zero to negative something

 
CRP13
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The only untouchable major leaguer, for sure. I'm dying to know who the PTBNL is. The last two PTBNL acquired by the Astros turned out to be dynamite.

Jul 23, 2012 6:53 AM on Myers to Chicago
 
CRP13
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Two Astros in one Ten Pack. When's the last time that happened??

Jul 23, 2012 6:48 AM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
CRP13
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More likely Myers gets flipped. Makes more money and is pitching far better. I can hear the conversation between JL and AA: "Ok, Jeff you can have these 5 prospects and Francisco. But the only way I'll let this deal work is if you take on Cordero as well." "Damn it, Alex! Well, if that's the way it has to be..."

 
CRP13
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"organizational depth" in Houston has only applied to how deep the franchise could sink before McLane was able to sell it.

 
CRP13
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Besides, there's no doubt that the other clubs are jealous that the Astros now have a Wojciechowski, a Keuchel, a Kvasnicka, and a Foltynewicz.

 
CRP13
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Least exciting for you. As an Astros fan, any time they give up nothing and get youngsters with even a shot at a future in return is a great day.

 
CRP13
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6'1", 220# is short and squat? We must be using a different yardstick and balance pan.

Jul 18, 2012 12:27 PM on Top False Trade Values
 
CRP13
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neither are middle infielders.

 
CRP13
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lol

Jul 05, 2012 7:57 AM on Offensive Fireworks
 
CRP13
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Dominguez plays better D, Paredes has more speed. Neither can hit the barn side of a broad. Six in one hand...

 
CRP13
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Astros fan here. I can't help but wonder if if Rasmussen was the cornerstone of the deal. If he turns into a late-inning reliever, it's a good deal for the Astros (something for not much). It smells like Dominguez is a throw in. The Astros are offensively incompetent and Dominguez adds nothing they don't already have in the high minors (Jimmy Paredes, another no-hit, good-D 3B). It seems the Astros consider Rio Ruiz their 3B of the future, as they should. Irritating me that Astros fans have been screaming about the team's offense for weeks but are excited to get Dominguez.

 
CRP13
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Bradford, I hate the Cubs, don't care about Rizzo, and don't know you from Adam, but this is one of the best pieces I've read here all year. A really great work.

 
CRP13
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McCarthy, Parker, and Cook with less than 80 IP this year and Milone with his 4.44 FIP to go with his 3.81 ERA? Are you serious?

Jun 28, 2012 8:59 AM on Picking the All-Stars
 
CRP13
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Like this: See?

 
CRP13
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I swear, there's somebody around here that just likes to minus everything I comment. Good to have hobbies.

Jun 27, 2012 2:31 PM on NL West
 
CRP13
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For the record, I'm A-OK with speculation. Just was wondering if there was substance to the rumor.

Jun 27, 2012 10:14 AM on NL West
 
CRP13
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Just curious, but are you hearing anything that Jed Lowrie might be made available? I've read that in several places, but nothing more than complete speculation. Is it just the fact that the Astros stink that makes people think Lowrie would be made available? Because Lowrie seems to me like the type of guy they'd hang on to until he approaches free agency because they have no other option and he's yet to distance himself from the "injury prone" label. Methinks if they wait on him for another season (or so), his value will be even higher.

Jun 27, 2012 6:19 AM on NL West
 
CRP13
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Kevin, do scouts still like DeShields after his somewhat lukewarm career beginning (last year)? How do you see his floor/ceiling?

 
CRP13
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Hey, man, good for you for spending time out of your busy day so post something so thoughtful, constructive, and polite. You ought to be proud, as should your mother.

Jun 26, 2012 6:09 AM on The Hate List, Part III
 
CRP13
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Seems kind of like what the Astros are going to go through next offseason.

 
CRP13
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Half of writing is 90% mental. Perhaps forcing a positive approach (Prospects That Will Cheer You Up? What Could Go Right?) would be a small step towards helping lift you out of your funk. You're too talented to let yourself get sucked this low, and sometimes intellectually (meaning: purposefully, even if you don't feel like it) forcing your work into a different perspective can help improve the grander scheme as well. I'm just saying. Good article, by the by.

 
CRP13
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Um...Just a reminder to Mr. Bates...the Astros are moving to the AL West next season.

 
CRP13
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I'm an LSU grad and something of a nut about them. That said, if Miles "nouned" a verb, it was unintentional. People shouldn't get credit for being bumblingly incompetent at the English language. At least Jason does it on purpose.

 
CRP13
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That said, it's a valid point. :)

 
CRP13
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My eyes just glassed over. That kind of nitpicking is usually what gives saber guys a bad name in the baseball world.

 
CRP13
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Lunhow: Also got two breathing specimens wearing baseball uniforms in return for Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois. That alone makes the Astros better than they were last season.

 
CRP13
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Not done reading yet, but one point that has been made to me about Lowrie that made me eat crow after pointing out his MLB splits: He always performed well against both-handed pitchers in the minors. But his wrist injury sapped his strength against RHP's in particular in the majors and he's since been on the long road to recovering his timing. I cited his terrible platoon numbers at first too, but the reality of his true history (looking beyond the majors) show that it's very possible that his MLB splits are indeed the aberration, caused by injury and small sample, and not that his current success is outside of his skill set. He will not hit .300/.380/.580 all season (almost definitely!) but there's no tangible reason to think he should suck against RHP's. I know you didn't say he would, but it was an interesting point that I hadn't read before...so I decided to share!

 
CRP13
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Nice. Well-played.

Jun 08, 2012 1:27 PM on Friday Power Rankings
 
CRP13
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I can tell you even the attitude around Astros fans has changed. Comment boards on Astros websites shattered previous high marks during the draft, and Lunhow has already achieved sainthood status in their minds. I'll reserve final judgement, but everything from the team on the field to the people running concessions stands feels different about this club. It's a neat thing to witness.

Jun 07, 2012 8:57 AM on Astros Find New Orbit
 
CRP13
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Why? That ignores the point that maybe these teams weren't as high on Appel as the media was? There certainly were beaucoup conflicting scouting reports and opinions on him. One guy loves the velocity of his fastball, another guy hates that it comes in flat. One guy loves his breaking pitches, another guy wants to know why he doesn't generate more swinging strikes. I can't remember another (arguable) first overall pick that opinions were more varied on than Appel. To my unconnected-from-MLB eyes, Appel has more bust risk attached to him than any of the other college pitchers he's been compared to, and less upside than the hitters who were taken in front of him. This wasn't done TO Appel. This was a business, and for financial AND talent reasons, seven teams decided to let him be somebody else's gamble. Let's not turn him into a victim.

Jun 06, 2012 8:55 AM on First Round Recap
 
CRP13
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Thing is, by being a college senior, Appel will lose all leverage. So does he take the $2MM now and risk being drafted by some team next year that says, "I'm only paying you $1.5MM. Take it, or go play in the independent leagues." Appel appears screwed (comparatively speaking), and from the rumor mills, one can blame his agent.

Jun 06, 2012 8:50 AM on First Round Recap
 
CRP13
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I hope you're right. I'm so tired of the Astros passing on high upside players for signability and quickness-to-majors.

Jun 01, 2012 11:26 AM on Mocking, Teasing
 
CRP13
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I like how the Advice for all players is "Hold." I know when I'm held during an injury, it always makes me feel better.

May 08, 2012 11:47 AM on Tuesday, May 8
 
CRP13
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Are the playoff odds updated daily? It doesn't pass the smell test that the Astros are at 0% and the Brewers are at 52% after one month of play. Nobody thinks the Astros are going to make the playoffs, but at this point their odds gotta be better than 0%.

May 08, 2012 11:45 AM on Tuesday, May 8
 
CRP13
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That may be the worst last name in baseball right now.

 
CRP13
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The Pirates make me happy that the Astros are moving to the AL. Well, that's not true at all, but I would not relish facing the Pirates rotation in about two years.

 
CRP13
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CRP13
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What annoys me about this whole situation is that if you watch the video http://deadspin.com/5905512/do-you-deserve-that-foul-ball-consult-this-handy-chart you see that the child is clearly crying before the couple even picks up the ball. The child is crying before his own father ducks to try to get the ball. For anybody that knows anything about kids this age, he was probably already irritable and fussy after sitting through EIGHT INNINGS of a baseball game, and then a round object that he is probably too young to identify as something cool comes buzzing about six inches from his face. So he reacted like a 2-3 year old and started crying. This is internet sensationalism of the worst kind by overreacting to a TV announcer who overreacted to something he probably couldn't see very well on a nine inch monitor while he was supposed to be watching what was going on in the field anyway. Just ridiculous (not your post, the whole situation)

 
CRP13
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Yeah. No Jeff Bagwell on this list? Seriously?

 
CRP13
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I tried to find an adjective to describe that structure, but my Thesaurus imploded.

 
CRP13
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You really should try fish tacos. They're much better than being beaned during a baseball game. At least, that's my opinion, although I have once been beaned during a baseball game.

 
CRP13
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Did you buy her any books?

 
CRP13
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No criticism implied. Maybe I just really didn't get the music in this week's podcast and it stuck out to me and reminded me of some others I wasn't fond of. I'm a classic rock / jazz / classical guy, so I'm definitely not the best judge of the bands you usually play. Keep up the great work.

 
CRP13
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I guess I just have different tastes, but it seems like a majority of musical guests involve somebody intoning vibrato-less whole notes on top of a guitar that repeats the same note and rhythm over and over.

 
CRP13
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Doubtless the first time those three names have ever been mentioned together.

 
CRP13
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It's just like every other business in the world. If you distinguish yourself, somebody else will try to pry you away. It's not a problem with Baseball Prospectus, it's a measurement of their high standards.

 
CRP13
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Dunno what you're on, but I wouldn't plan on winning the appeal, if I were you.

Feb 24, 2012 7:06 AM on Say It Ain't So, Braun!
 
CRP13
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Who said anything about insulting to me? I said it's one-sided and unnecessarily snide. Statements like this should not be published at Baseball Prospectus: "He’s also a fan favorite out of necessity, because Ed Wade traded all the other ones for junk" Considering Singleton and Cosart appear on the top 50 of almost every published Top-100 list, and the Pence trade was just about universally praised, it makes the statement above sound like a needlessly-inflammatory piece of history revision in the interest of making the article as biting as possible. There's just very little substance here - all show. Nothing wrong with the writing; I just don't like reading fluff without substance. I pay for the privilege of reading, so I'm allowed to be disappointed with content.

 
CRP13
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Sorry, I'm with Frazier above, who says this seems like piling on. I just wish you had given a new perspective in this article instead of just trashing the teams. It just didn't come across very well.

 
CRP13
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This is pretty weak. How easy is it to just write an article that slams a couple of franchises without providing any numerical analysis, reasons for struggle, or possible solutions? It's really easy to mock guys like Happ, Quintero, and Wallace, and it's also really easy to find guys exactly like that on some of the best teams. Or are you going to try and tell me that Francisco Cervelli or Jose Lobaton are that much better than Quintero as a backup catcher? Is it so difficult to not acknowledge that Happ only pitched 87 innings in 2010, and that may have affected his performance in 2011? Would it be criminal to point out that Wallace has had 475 plate appearances in the major league before you tear him apart as an abject failure? Honestly, if you were trying to present half of a story in the interest of a pointless stinging commentary on two franchises that are struggling right now, you succeeded. But if you were actually trying to make a POINT, that didn't come across at all. Very disappointed with this one. A rare miss from Baseball Prospectus lately.

 
CRP13
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Yes, this.

 
CRP13
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Kevin's answered most of these questions already in the podcast and in previous articles. If I remember correctly, Rendon's concerns are injury-related and Cosart is still seen by many as a late-inning reliever (which pains me, as an Astros fan, but doesn't change the accuracy of the opinion). Rendon's 30 SB's actually were 21 SB's and were accompanied with 12 CS. That doesn't scream anything that indicates a guy with elite baserunning tools. He struggled towards the end of the season, also, if I remember the podcast, Wheeler is a guy who has good-not-great tools across the board. A solid producer but not a likely superstar.

Feb 13, 2012 9:15 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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With 20-grade writing tools.

Feb 13, 2012 9:07 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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Freedom of the press protects your right to say asinine things and it protects my right to call you a fool for saying them.

Feb 13, 2012 8:04 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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If KG is your inspiration, maybe you should go back and re-read his work and observe that he doesn't insult people with sarcastic back-handed comments, he doesn't make snarky rearview-mirror judgments over articles that he wrote two years ago, and he doesn't get defensive when other people point out illogical points that they think he made. Seriously dude, no class.

Feb 13, 2012 8:02 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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You seem to be backpedaling over the fact that your other posts above sounded A) hopelessly ignorant, B) overly aggressive, and C) hilariously condescending. Don't throw your own complete failure to come across like a reasonable person into the faces of the people who pointed out how ridiculous you sound right now.

Feb 13, 2012 7:58 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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You are terrible.

Feb 13, 2012 7:56 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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Usually I try to stay polite, but this is the dumbest comment I've read at Baseball Prospectus in a long time.

Feb 13, 2012 7:54 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
CRP13
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But honestly, if you're right, Jason's lack of #want to sort through the pile of refuse that is the White Sox farm system is understandable. I even feel a sort of commiseration that he felt the obligation to write something about the White Sox at all.

 
CRP13
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Am I allowed to think that this is terrible and hilarious all at the same time? Hilariously terrible, I guess.

 
CRP13
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Very deep, but I think I'm missing what your point is.

 
CRP13
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Awesome column, Steven. I had a similar experience as you describe up top, and it's good to know that I'm not the only one on earth that gets looked askance at for never having been drunk, despite no moral protest against alcohol. Again, the whole article is very thoughtful.

 
CRP13
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There was an article a while back that I read...I think it was here, actually...saying that he takes minor league innings into consideration, but sometimes not winter leagues, spring training innings, or warm-up/bullpen pitches. To disregard such a large number of between-real-season pitches probably really screws with any credibility the method could have had.

 
CRP13
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I wholeheartedly agree with your method, analysis, results, and overall point. Are you resigned to being ignored on this topic, just like everybody else who has done a similar study? Face it. When you're cool, people listen to you - even when you say stuff that doesn't pass the smell test. My advice: Get really, really cool (and good hair, if you don't already have it), then republish this. Good article.

 
CRP13
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80 episodes. Damn! Congratulations!

 
CRP13
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Excellent! Looking forward to reading your work.

Jan 27, 2012 1:45 PM on Marking My Debut
 
CRP13
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Awesome move for the Astros. Finally, no more "gut feeling" decisions that lead to overpaying middle relievers.

 
CRP13
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When does the book come out?

Jan 25, 2012 10:58 AM on Ramirez and Rameau
 
CRP13
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Shocked and disappointed are two different things. I was disappointed to find out that Clemens and Pettite were mentioned on the Mitchell report. But I wasn't shocked. Naivete has nothing to do with disappointment. One can hope for the best without expecting the best, and can be disappointed in the worst without being surprised by it. I'm repeatedly disappointed when generalizations are made.

Jan 25, 2012 10:57 AM on Ramirez and Rameau
 
CRP13
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Good for you Mike! Awesome. As an Astros fan, I'm still amazed that Houston is finally getting some statistical firepower.

Jan 25, 2012 10:23 AM on Last Pitch
 
CRP13
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Bo knows Capitol Hill. Vote Jackson in 2012.

 
CRP13
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My thought is, the Astros signed Cust to teach the hitting coaches how to teach the other hitters how to take a walk.

 
CRP13
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I'm glad I read this.

 
CRP13
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The one thing I will say in McLane's favor about his food policy was that it attracted some really top-knotch food vendors in the park. Even a chef who was featured on a Food Network series has opened stands in MMP. I love this policy change, but at the same time hope it doesn't affect the top-quality food selections there.

Jan 24, 2012 5:47 AM on Tuesday, January 24
 
CRP13
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Nice work, as usual. Umm...as the lone voice of Astros fandom that reads this site, could we please get a write-up of the exciting, exciting signings of Jack Cust and Chris Snyder? I know that's not as interesting as the A's signing Johnny Gomes, but I still would like to read BP's take.

 
CRP13
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Forgive me for ending a sentence with a preposition.

 
CRP13
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At the top of the article you have Hamilton listed at SS, but the write-up has him at 2B. Which do you think he'll ultimately end up at?

 
CRP13
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They don't count. The fans pay their salary.

Jan 16, 2012 2:05 PM on Bud Selig's To-Do List
 
CRP13
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Also worth pointing out that Kershaw is only 23, so it's not like Pineda is doing this at an age that those guys didn't.

Jan 16, 2012 1:55 PM on Monday, January 16
 
CRP13
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Sample size. I don't think 19 appearances is enough to draw any conclusion whatsoever.

Jan 16, 2012 9:45 AM on Can Anyone Close?
 
CRP13
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Put the Astros back in the NL. Nobody wants this move, not even the AL.

Jan 16, 2012 6:23 AM on Bud Selig's To-Do List
 
CRP13
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Finally, being an Astros fan is good by comparison.

 
CRP13
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From Farsi: Who are Babe Roth, Mark Mkvayr, and Sosa Toxic?

 
CRP13
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I'll say it again. If you write a book, I will buy it. And read it. And hide it from my wife, who might think I'm crazy if she reads over my shoulder. But I'm okay with that, and so am I.

 
CRP13
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That's three more than I thought he'd get.

 
CRP13
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Maybe it wasn't covered by his HMO?

 
CRP13
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"...it is your duty to obtain as much understanding as possible on who cheated how significantly and vote accordingly." You're making an assumption that he hasn't. I'm probably safer in assuming that he HAS obtained as much understanding as he could and has decided that the whole thing was a big stinking mess, that he would rather purposefully vote for somebody that he knows used PED's and use the same criteria across the board for everybody than NOT vote for those people, but instead accidentally vote in a PED user who just hasn't gotten caught yet. Whether you know the guy is a user or not, if you exclude the guys you know about, it's still a double standard if an uncaught PED user gets into the hall.

 
CRP13
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And by the way, I wasn't the person who minused you. I like a good debate and I don't mind people disagreeing with me.

Jan 09, 2012 1:40 PM on Suspicious Minds
 
CRP13
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Secondly, I take issue with this: "Bagwell (or Martinez or Jeter) cannot generate that kind of evidence of non-steroid use." I disagree with your implication that it is beholden on Bagwell, Martinez, or Jeter to prove their own innocence in the face of accusations that are based only on suspicion. I'll even call it ridiculous. If you and others think Bagwell was a steroid user, then prove it. It is not his responsibility, it's yours. Particularly if you happen to wield the ability to keep him out of the Hall of Fame, a decision that will impact the life of a real man in a very large way. From the5th Amendment of the US Constitution (sorry if you're Canadian...I'm going to use this source because Bagwell is a US Citizen): "No person...shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law..." This isn't a criminal charge, but by assuming guilt based on circumstantial evidence and putting the onus on Bagwell and others to prove their own innocence, writers with HOF votes are denying Bagwell the benefits, prestige, and historical context that will benefit him and his family for generations. I don't think I'm being dramatic either, as HOF'ers are given increased career opportunities post-baseball compared to other retired players. In legal contexts, the 5th amendment was written to prevent just this sort of thing. Just because this isn't legal (and therefore doesn't violate the 5th Amendment), doesn't mean that such an accusation and expectation doesn't violate the moral spirit of the rule. I think the whole concept of putting the burden on those guys to prove their innocence against suspicion is reprehensible, when their future is what's at stake, not the futures of writers hiding behind a keyboard without fear of reproach.

Jan 09, 2012 1:37 PM on Suspicious Minds
 
CRP13
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I understand your argument, I just completely disagree with it. In my eyes (and obviously not in yours, but I can only speak for myself), this is the statement I have a problem with: "The net evidence for Bagwell being on steroids is much greater (and less susceptible to proof otherwise) than the totality of the evidence that Obama is not a natural-born citizen." I don't believe there's very much evidence re Obama. But I believe the evidence against Bagwell is just as, if not more circumstantial. The difference between what I said and what you said is the "I believe" that I added. You are starting from an assumption of fact, one that I happen to not agree with, and it flaws your point. I am presenting an opinion of mine as an opinion, and my conclusions are drawn from that. I'm not claiming that what I say IS true, I am saying that I believe it to be true. lmarighi says this in his/her comment as well, and it's a valid point that presenting opinion as fact is not helping me agree with you. Glad to read you would vote for Bagwell, but the same argument you presented above is the one being used by sportswriters who say they WON'T vote for Bagwell, and that's where I have problems. Guilt by association is not guilt, it's just a cliché. Three hundred years ago, some white dudes lynched some black dudes, and were bastards for doing so. I am white, but that does not mean that I am a murderous racist, nor does it increase the likelihood that I am. Bagwell was a home run hitter during the so-called "steroid era" of baseball. Others can claim that increases his likelihood of having used steroids, but that can never be used to definitely say one way or the other without some tangible evidence, as each individual is an individual. Just because there were more individuals who chose to use PED's during that time period, it does not imply one way or another whether Jeff Bagwell or any other individual is more or less likely to be one of those people. Arbitrarily, people seem to have decided Bagwell was a user, and that Roberto Alomar was not. Why? Getting back to the point, my whole problem with the concept of "low-value evidence" as you presented it is that it seems completely arbitrary and assignable based on the whims, opinions, and suspicions of people that have no factual or tangible evidence otherwise. Just as such nonsensical sixth-sense claptrap would be inadmissible in a court, it seems absurd to apply it to something that will affect Bagwell's life in a very real way. I will save my second point for another post...this one's too long as is.

Jan 09, 2012 1:25 PM on Suspicious Minds
 
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Somebody will have to let me know. I'm certainly not checking it while at work. Actually, I wonder if it's a bad idea to be reading this article at all. Will let you know next week if I got fired.

 
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Fascinating, but I can't seem to get past the fact that there actually is a website called "aidmygroin.com".

 
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Last year I wrote an article showing that there is at least as much circumstantial evidence that Roberto Alomar used PEDs as their is for Jeff Bagwell. Alomar is in the hall. I think the point Neyer is sort of making is that perception is hurting Bagwell more than anything else. Nobody thinks of shorstops as sluggers, and slugging in the 90's is associated with PEDs, therefore somebody is more likely to think a slugger used than a shortstop. I don't agree with the conclusion that such a factually baseless perspective is good reason to keep Bagwell out of the hall while players such as Alomar (who had a huge spike in Home Runs in the middle of the steroid era) make it in.

Jan 09, 2012 10:04 AM on Suspicious Minds
 
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By your argument, Obama should not be president (yes I'm going somewhere with this). Without getting into a political debate, the cases are very similar, using your definition of what is evidence and what isn't. If general suspicion that Bagwell took steroids based on some thoughtless comments that he made and the fact he was a big dude that hit home runs is enough to keep him out of the hall of fame, then by your argument, general suspicion that Barack Obama was not actually born in America based on the fact that he took years to produce a birth certificate, changed his name, and had a Kenyan non-national father should be enough to keep him out of office. By your definition, both of their cases are rife with what you call "low-value evidence". Note: I am not a "birther", I'm just saying it's the same argument. Obviously, by fact that Obama is president, the general public has discarded that "low-value evidence" as value-less or at least inconclusive, and decided it wasn't enough of a concern to deter electing him. By the same token, using the "low-value evidence" of Bagwell's PED usage (which amounts to speculation only), to keep him out of the hall of fame is hypocritical and pretty silly to boot.

Jan 09, 2012 9:59 AM on Suspicious Minds
 
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Hilarious!

Jan 09, 2012 7:32 AM on The Battered Batter
 
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John, I've been enjoying your articles all along and look forward to continuing. Thanks for the high standards.

 
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I hope Jason or Sam is my grandpa. Kidding aside, I'm looking forward to 2012.

Jan 09, 2012 6:06 AM on What's to Come in 2012
 
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I can't say I disagree with your choices.

 
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I do a double-take every time I see the Marlins' goofy new logo in a BP article, and wonder when the MLB started allowing an Arena League football team join.

 
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yes.

Jan 03, 2012 12:48 PM on The Three We Missed
 
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How dare you take vacation time? :)

 
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Nice work. Easier access to this info will be great.

 
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Ben, great article. I can't speak for the other fans, but I think you may have misread the intent behind some of those quotes from TCB. Enlightened Astros fans have suffered for years by watching Ed Wade disregard any sort of statistical analysis in favor of behind-the-times scouting-only methods. We've watched bad contract after bad contract come through - usually for overrated middle relievers coming off of career seasons. We've seen star level players fall from their peak and screamed at our newspapers for Wade to trade them before their value sank too low to make any difference. Those quotes aren't hailing Lunhow in the sense that there's an expectation that he will immediately turn things around and start crushing opponents. They're exhalations of, "Finally! We don't have to scream and pull our hair out every time our GM does anything anymore." For us, we understand that the Lunhow hiring isn't going to put us ahead of the curve...it's going to help bring us BACK to the level of almost all the other teams in baseball. We know why the Astros were so horrible in 2011, and it wasn't (only) Carlos Lee's contract. This will right the ship, but it will take more than just a good GM to put the Astros ahead of the pack.

 
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I got what you're saying now. I guess I would just dispute that Lawrie is a borderline in medium keeper leagues and Wright is not. But it's be a pretty weak dispute...Wright really struggled last season.

 
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Somebody over at The Crawfish Boxes said it best: "What's that I feel? Satisfaction? In the Astros front office? I haven’t felt like this in nigh on six years now."

 
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My only real memories of that song are of Rowlf singing it during the first season of The Muppet Show.

Dec 14, 2011 11:23 AM on Cottleston Pirates
 
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And where does Kendrys Morales fit in when healthy? Let's not forget - that guy can really hit.

Dec 14, 2011 11:20 AM on Win Some, Lose Some
 
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What makes it confusing is the whole David Wright thing. Wright will only be 29 years old this coming season, meaning he will likely have at least 5 more seasons of serviceable time as a Fantasy 3B. Sure he had a rotten year last season (for him) but in 2 of his last four seasons, he's been 4.5 WARP or better. I find it tough to believe that at any point during the next five seasons that Chisenhall has a better chance to post multiple seasons with that much production at a thin position. Sure, Chisenhall should be a decent option, maybe even good, but if we're talking probability, I'd take Wright 10 times out of 10. Chisenhall also is more likely to be draftable without overpaying. Somebody will pay big for Wright's name if he's a free agent. Lawrie might have a little better chance than Chisenhall, but I'd still take proven production (from a guy who is still young) than unproven guesswork. Wright is in a weak lineup in NY, but it's not arguably weaker than Cleveland, and his contract ends in 2012 anyway (assuming that the Mets might not pick up the $15M option for 2013 since they're basically rebuilding, though even if they do, Wright could be in a better situation by 2014. In 2014, Chisenhall and Lawrie still might not have found their legs in the major leagues.) So that's my confusion. I don't understand a situation in any keeper league where Wright is judged to be less valuable than Chisenhall and Lawrie.

 
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That's a little confusing. What matters to me is who you expect to put up better stats next season, and thus make my fantasy team better.

 
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Hilariously disturbing. The Evers and Tinker one made me cringe. Thanks, I'll never think of that old rhyme the same way ever again.

 
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I can now rest easy.

 
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I'm posting to add to the praise.

Dec 12, 2011 12:42 PM on These Pitches Three
 
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Minused for complimenting the author. ERRR???

 
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Be fair. It's not even a fine line (it's more like a gaping gulf) between androgynous hero-worship and descriptions of players fondling each other. So let's not even go there, shall we?

 
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I'm sad I was only allowed to + once.

 
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Jason, your writing boggles me. I can't think of any other adjective except "fascinating".

 
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Thanks for the ongoing updates, Jay. Nice work. It's possible that Braun's body naturally creates elevated levels of artificial testosterone...

 
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Sarcasm? Nice.

 
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Jason's articles always prompt these philosophical introspections. Don't shoot me for being intrigued enough to apply this taxonomy to my own life.

Dec 11, 2011 6:47 AM on Collection of Cool
 
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Now THAT is going to be worth reading. I wonder if at the climax you approach him and profess your undying adoration. If so, that would move you outside of the class system. There's not a class for cojones like that.

Dec 10, 2011 6:20 AM on Collection of Cool
 
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There's a team in Houston that would love to have him.

 
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They really don't need a 1B. They have this guy. Lance Berkman. He's pretty ok at that position.

 
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This indicates that Lonnie Chisenhall is as good a keeper as David Wright, and that Lawrie is better. Shocking!

 
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Gotcha. And again, I enjoyed the article. I've been a Wade apologist for a couple years now, though he was not anything to be excited about. He got a bum deal, was dealt a crappy hand by a misguided owner, and now is taking the fall for something he had little control over. Oh well, at least he gets a full paycheck through 2013 because of that evergreen clause in his contract!

 
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I think I'm something like a Second in Command in Training. Who knows if I'll ever get there. I'm like a floater with personal drive.

Dec 09, 2011 6:25 AM on Collection of Cool
 
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There are tons of quotes out there from people cringing about competing against him, including the Cardinals GM, who claims to be grateful now that the Astros are going to the AL. There's a great QA interview with him available here that gives people a sense of what he's about. There's a quote from George Postolos saying that after Lunhow's interview, Lunhow asked if he could send more info. Postolos expected a resume and cover letter but instead received a 25-page plan the next day on how to fix the Astros. Lunhow's the guy that (rumor has it) caused the cards owner to run off Jocketty for disagreeing with Lunhow's ideas. Lunhow brought the statistical revolution to the Cardinals. There are various stats showing that he's had more major leaguers and more successful players from the past three drafts than any other team in baseball. There is a wealth of information available on him, without even having an "inside presence" like Baseball Prospectus does. I'm not trying to needle Bradley here - this is a good article about Ed Wade, but this site sees Astros content (or any NL Central content aside from Cubs/Cards) about as often as the UN gets to see nuclear processing facilities in Iran. Personally, I would have thought BP would be all over this hiring, discussing the impact of hiring a business and stats guy for a franchise that has had an antiquated mode of operation for two decades. I'm disappointed.

 
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Congrats guys. Well done

 
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I am enjoying the daily mini podcasts. Lots of fun.

 
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I clicked the 20-team 10 keeper link (that's what my 2 leagues are). Um...I scoff at any ranking system that projects Michael Bourn to be the 5th best player in all of baseball. Methinks there's some tinkering that needs to be done with the calcs.

Dec 06, 2011 9:49 AM on Outfielders for 12/6/11
 
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Out of curiosity, are you hearing any noise about any of these guys at the Winter Meetings?

Dec 06, 2011 7:17 AM on Only the Good Buy Young
 
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Interesting personal perspective, Steven. Keep up the good work. Back-slapping and glad-handing is fleeting, but words are forever. Find joy in what you're good at, and screw the rest!

Dec 06, 2011 7:16 AM on Wallflower at the Prom
 
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Dunno why you got minused for that...(tangent: I love the comments section almost as much as the articles. Almost. But for the love of all that is holy [or unholy {I wouldn't want to offend anyone }] please get rid of the +/- junk)... ...but I loved BP Idol. It was kicked off right after I started seriously reading the site and aside from exposing some very good writers (Ken, Brian, etc), it was a really enjoyable format that gave me a reason to invest my time. It really is what kept me coming back as I became familiar with the everyday authors.

 
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I bring the curve down :

 
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There's probably already a "jugs" app, but I don't think that's what Adam had in mind.

Nov 30, 2011 9:41 AM on BP Holiday Gift Guide
 
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How about more original daily content from BP? Seems like we're only getting a couple articles a day and they're either Waybacks, conglomerations like this one, guest writers, and fantasy content. I'll get minused for this, but it's been bothering me lately. What am I paying for?

Nov 30, 2011 6:28 AM on BP Holiday Gift Guide
 
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Did you even read his blog post yesterday?

 
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"And can Jason Parks please stop contributing an unfunny, pointless entry in every collaborative article? We all love the humorous asides in Baseball Prospectus, but when a joke serves as the centerpiece of a piece, it comes across as self-indulgent and tiresome. You ain't "Fire Joe Morgan," guys. Leave the funny to the professionals." Are you serious? Are you also one of those guys who complains that the writing around here isn't interesting anymore? I didn't know the dude had 12 fingers. Now I do. I learned something today.

 
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Cool, sounds good

 
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How many scouts have you talked to? I'm willing to bet that KG maybe talked to at least one or two or a dozen about this list.

Nov 28, 2011 6:14 AM on Cubs Top 11 Prospects
 
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Nothing like shameless self-plugging right before Thanksgiving.

 
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Zoot is definitely on some of that Jordan Schafer special.

Nov 23, 2011 10:56 AM on The Muppet Show
 
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Having waded through the rest of your comments, I will addendum and say that the rest of your complaining is pretty pointless. But the first one above made me smirk.

Nov 23, 2011 10:54 AM on What Price Labor Peace?
 
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I think some of that was "herd mentality minusing." I thought the post hilarious and sarcastic, and I'm pretty sure that's what you were going for.

Nov 23, 2011 10:52 AM on What Price Labor Peace?
 
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Well that's the more obvious physical comparison. Or Bronson Arroyo. But I was going for the 2011 Phillies Rotation comparison, and I think it holds up pretty well. CAN YOU PICTURE THAT?

Nov 23, 2011 8:33 AM on The Muppet Show
 
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Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem: Dr. Teeth: Roy "Doc" Halladay Floyd Pepper: Cliff Lee (Floyd's the "1B" to Dr. Teeth's "1A".) Janice: Cole Hamels (it's the hair) Zoot: Roy Oswalt (Roy doesn't talk much) Lips: Whatever fifth starter that nobody ever remembers the name of.

Nov 23, 2011 7:22 AM on The Muppet Show
 
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Jeez, Jason, you're like the J.D. Salinger of baseball. I am impressed by your brilliance while at the same time depressed by the delivery and subject matter. Keep up the good work - it's a literary highlight of my week.

 
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Having a team comprised almost entirely of 21-year-olds will help a team's odds of being healthy all season.

 
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Great post Steven. Enjoyable as usual. Hoping for Ramos' safe return.

 
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Pieces like this come out at this time every year. I think this was my favorite.

 
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That is so messed up. Hoping for his safety.

 
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The first step to helping yourself is to admit you have a problem. Way to go, buddy! :) (just kidding, of course)

 
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I like eating pig.

 
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I can't watch the video because I'm afraid it will diminish the greatness of KG's writeup.

 
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Minused for that? All you have to do is look at Altuve's Pitch F/X data. He displayed no recognition of the strike zone in the majors last year, and his excellent hand eye coordination led to an increased number of groundball outs and bloop singles. He'll never show power in the majors unless he learns plate discipline.

Nov 03, 2011 7:46 AM on Astros Top 11 Prospects
 
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Yes, unless he learns not to swing at every pitch in a ten-mile radius.

Nov 02, 2011 6:27 AM on Astros Top 11 Prospects
 
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Easy answer? Drayton McLane for being the only owner to follow the slotting system, and Tim Purpura for signing Lee, Berkman, and Oswalt to team-crippling contracts.

Nov 01, 2011 7:34 AM on Astros Top 11 Prospects
 
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This article is like Christmas, with all the joy of anticipation, but then somebody gifted me a pack of underpants. I'm sad that I see nobody here to be excited about yet.

Nov 01, 2011 6:21 AM on Astros Top 11 Prospects
 
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The Bimbo bear got more play in this podcast than the farm systems of the Angels and Astros combined. Ouch.

 
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It's just killing me that all these quality GM's are moving around while the Astros have been lingering in Limbo since May. I cry foul, and no replay is needed.

 
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Keep Yunel. Position scarcity. Outfielders are a dime a dozen. Also, sounds like Bonifacio being supplanted at the top of the lineup by Juan Pierre is the rumor du jour.

 
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I thought he did that in 2011 already.

 
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I want to win now!

 
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Such a tease. I won't believe the Astros improved until I see it in their record. But YAY for the lists!

 
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I can't tell you how I've looked forward to Episode 69.

 
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Hilarious suggestion to trade for Jose Altuve. Really?

Oct 18, 2011 9:27 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
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Sweet, I can plan my 2011 Fantasy Baseball draft now.

 
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HAH. I caught you in a gross mistake. I think it's pretty clear the Astros are drafting for role players. So eat crow, Mr. Jazayerli. Great series, by the way. Am enjoying the read.

 
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Haha. Wow!

 
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Great article. I can see what will happen. Michael Lewis and Rany will write a book about young high schoolers being a draft inefficiency. All the major league clubs start reaching for young high schoolers. Older high schoolers soon become a draft inefficiency. I think in 50 years an interesting study would be to see if there's a cyclical nature to draft inefficiencies based on the results of sabermetric research.

 
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Deep only I mean. Always proofread, kids.

 
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Shallow Only No Yes all No

 
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Sigh. Though Houston fans seem to think Hinze is the next coming of Lance Berkman. I'm not buying it. Thanks for the reply though.

 
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I know nobody else in the world besides me cares, but do the Astros have anybody in Arizona this season? I hadn't read about any yet.

 
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Heck, they might as well throw money at Albert Pujols too. Even if he signs with the Cardinals.

Oct 07, 2011 2:00 PM on New York Yankees
 
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Oh my, I can't imagine a more vanilla signing for the star-studded Yankees than CJ Wilson, Mark Buehrle, or Edwin Jackson.

Oct 07, 2011 1:59 PM on New York Yankees
 
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That leads me to wonder how some of the WNBA players compare in attractiveness to John Kruk.

 
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Well yes, but that didn't mean it wouldn't work (and it did, apparently). I kinda thought that was the premise of your post. Yes, this looks odd in a vacuum, but how can we possibly judge it at this point?

 
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Agreed except, nobody could realistically call Oakland a place with growth potential, even in the late 60's.

Oct 07, 2011 10:28 AM on Moneyball and Money Men
 
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The book or the movie? I haven't seen the movie, but I would be surprised to learn they made that distinction in a hollywood film.

Oct 07, 2011 10:28 AM on Moneyball and Money Men
 
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Steven, this is one of your best. A really good read. I love the historical perspective.

 
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THIS POST IS OUTRAGEOUS! I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU POSTED THIS. NOBODY CAN BLAME ME FOR REACTING. :)

 
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keep. all leagues. buy him a steak if that will entice him to stay on your roster.

 
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Forrest Snow is a 70-grade baseball name.

 
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Hot dang, it's good to see Minor League Update again.

 
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Yes, top 200 plus the top 100 prospects every season, which can make a mess of draft strategies. Thanks for the reply.

 
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Dang, my league is so deep it isn't on your scale. 20 teams, 10 keepers, 5 prospects. Got anything planned for lunatics like the people who play in my league? All of these guys are no-brainers in my league except for Pennington and Buck.

 
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My reply was more of a sarcastic jab at the lack of acknowledgement of Colin's interesting article than a disagreement with you. If you think I was being serious, you missed my point. This article was a pretty good read. Hijacking the comments thread to complain about something unrelated just irritated me. But you made your point, and the powers that be responded, so now we can all go out for a beer.

Oct 04, 2011 3:15 PM on The O-Swing of Things
 
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you forget. There are fans of 22 other teams right now that would prefer to read Colin's article than yet another breakdown of the same Cardinals and Phillies teams that we've been reading about all year. Albert Pujols is a good hitter. Roy Halladay is a good pitcher. Really, is there more that hasn't already been said a few dozen times?

Oct 04, 2011 5:57 AM on The O-Swing of Things
 
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This explains so much.

 
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Bacon makes everything better.

 
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I don't think you can base an award on how a pitcher SHOULD have performed, if circumstances were completely different. BABIP and team defense is no way to judge a pitcher when you're considering who gets a trophy for the best ACTUAL statistical or contributional performance of the season. If that's the way life worked, Dewey would have defeated Truman.

 
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I guess you missed my sarcasm :)

 
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Great research, and outstanding presentation. Not a knock on anybody else, but there's a lot to be learned here about how to clearly present a complex idea to non-experts, and I hope others take note. I have a couple thoughts: First, it would be really fun to see graphics on TV showing "Mistake Pitch", "Sucker Pitch", and "Pitcher's Pitch", regardless of the pitch outcome. Big splash graphics reading SUCKER PITCH flashing with video game intensity. Awesome... Second, I think the case of Chris Ianetta and the presentation of the hitter plated discipline graph above is interesting. The distinction between this graph and what actually makes a good hitter is important, and I don't think the graph actually shows true plate disclipline. Ianetta has a 75% contact rate, which isn't very good, and his contact rate on pitches "in the zone" (by the old definition) is a low 81%. In addition, he oddly only swings at pitches in the "zone" 70% of the time (compared to Vlad's 80.5%, for fun). His ability to recognize True Strikes plus what I just mentioned tells me that Iannetta is just awful at dealing or recognizing Borderline Pitches (Borderline pitches aren't shown by the chart, which is why it could be misleading when valuing a player's plate discipline). So, Iannetta has outstanding plate discipline when the pitch is either A) right down the middle, or B) way outside, but struggles to do anything with borderline stuff, which is probably what he's thrown most of the time. All this explains why scouts loved him enough to give him top prospect status, and also why he hasn't lived up to their expectations in six seasons in the majors. Very interesting stuff, and like you said, I think there is a lot you can do with this information.

 
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"Heck, swap Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista for just about any average player at their position, and their teams finish in the exact same place." *** Which means nobody on a 1st place team should ever be considered for MVP.

Sep 30, 2011 12:24 PM on Handing out the Hardware
 
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If you're basing an MVP vote based on BABIP, that's a tough sell. BABIP doesn't preclude the fact that Verlander had a better performance this season. That would be taking statistics too far.

Sep 30, 2011 12:21 PM on Handing out the Hardware
 
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Care to expand on your thoughts? Because "no way in hell" isn't a very convincing argument without something to back it up.

 
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Damn fantastic article Colin. Very well done, I felt like I was there with you. ...and I hate the Cubs. So again, well done.

Sep 29, 2011 12:40 PM on The Problem of Pain
 
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Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. The Sox just didn't have any of that this year. Turns out, it's important.

 
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Shocking that Ozzie is that sought after. As a small-ball advocate, how's he going to get along with Mike Stanton? How will he have the patience/restraint to deal with Hanley Ramirez' shenanigans? Will he put up with sharing the loony limelight with Morrison? This seems more like a PR move, because of the media noise he generates, and because--dare I say it?--he will appeal to Miami's Cuban population. Not bad reasons in themselves, but if they think this makes them a better ballclub, I say they're crazy.

Sep 28, 2011 1:56 PM on Ozzieball Does Miami
 
CRP13
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Pitt's face on the 20-80? I'm disappointed you didn't go there. Your prose has slipped to a 75.

Sep 28, 2011 1:48 PM on Moneyball: The Poster
 
CRP13
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Netflix is probably going to write me an email explaining why they decided not to offer it on-demand, but that they're renaming it to Quikball. Sigh. I'll probably wait for the DVD regardless. Redbox is cheap.

Sep 28, 2011 1:42 PM on Moneyball for All
 
CRP13
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Yes, but then he wouldn't be the problem of MY hometown team. I wasn't pushing for the Indians to go get him. I was pushing for the Astros to give him away.

Sep 26, 2011 12:30 PM on Cleveland Indians
 
CRP13
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Please...yes, please. Take Brett Wallace.

Sep 26, 2011 10:07 AM on Cleveland Indians
 
CRP13
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Some of them. I agree with this one. Guillen's act has become ineffective, and I think it's pretty clear by now.

Sep 26, 2011 10:04 AM on Chicago White Sox
 
CRP13
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How much time did you spend on this?

 
CRP13
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First Bowden suggestion I've read that made me say, "Hmm...that makes sense...and it's possible."

Sep 22, 2011 7:07 AM on Colorado Rockies
 
CRP13
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I applaud the effort to bring the "baseball stat" community together by adopting usage of stats found elsewhere that you agree with. I think it's a good step in making advanced statistics in baseball more widely-accepted by normal people.

Sep 22, 2011 6:20 AM on Addition by Addition
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Oh lord. The Marlin doesn't bother me. But that "M"....and what's up with the "high school letterman jacket" font of the Marlins team name?

Sep 21, 2011 9:02 AM on Comic Stylings
 
CRP13
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Apparently, somebody thinks I shouldn't go back and read them, since I got minused for this comment. I hope somebody replies and explains what's so awful about the previous articles that I shouldn't read them.

 
CRP13
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Ohhh...I didn't know that, because it immediately precedes your blurb and there's no name attached. Sorry.

Sep 20, 2011 1:16 PM on Toronto Blue Jays
 
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Nice work if you can get it.

Sep 20, 2011 1:13 PM on Cincinnati Reds
 
CRP13
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re-reading my post, I want to clarify. I never considered you particularly yankees-centric. Just so we're clear.

 
CRP13
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If I may, it's probably not worth your time to respond. Who cares, even if you do write Yankees-centrically (and I don't really care enough to research past articles anyway)? This is a baseball site, and the Yankees are a baseball team. If they're your favorite, you should write about them. Joe Posnanski writes about the Royals all the time; it doesn't make him a bad writer. No pleasing some people, I thought the article was a nice retrospective on a historically great player.

 
CRP13
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Ben, with the crummy way Rasmus hit all year and the nice showing of Lawrie and Encarnacion at the end of the year, what's your reasoning for projecting him to bat cleanup? I would think he'll probably start 6th or lower, just based on 2011 performance. Heck, Arencibia had a lot better season than Rasmus.

Sep 20, 2011 10:27 AM on Toronto Blue Jays
 
CRP13
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Here is a fine article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuation

Sep 20, 2011 10:16 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
CRP13
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Formula: 1) Pick random sucky team 2) Say they should trade one of their best players for a bunch of "guys", regardless of position and need. 3) Present proposal on reputable website. Honestly...I could have come up with a more likely, but equally useless, trade scenario.

Sep 20, 2011 10:14 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
CRP13
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This was fascinating. I need to go back and read your previous writing on the subject. Shame on me for missing them.

 
CRP13
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Where, on the 20-80 Scale?

 
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"...except in literary depictions of alienated romance" Rivera and Hoffman. That's a match made in hell. Thanks for the vivid mental image.

 
CRP13
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I want more articles exactly like this one. Only with less Aaron Cook. #14 made me think.

 
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Dang, that's a steal. Wish I could come, I could easily drink $20 bucks of beer and come out ahead.

 
CRP13
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Chiming in: I'm no Padres fan, but it seems to me also that Blanks has never really gotten a legitimate shot at steady playing time, and there isn't an obvious reason why not.

Sep 19, 2011 12:58 PM on San Diego Padres
 
CRP13
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I like that you're trying to improve Baseball Prospectus' foundation. Good move.

 
CRP13
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It is a necessary equalizer for teams of differing skills. Explain?

Sep 16, 2011 7:15 AM on Commissioner for a Day
 
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I'm flattered that my humble comment has sparked such in-depth research. :)

Sep 16, 2011 7:14 AM on Commissioner for a Day
 
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Posting my agreement because "+" just didn't do enough.

 
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P.S. That's my last post on the subject. I can tell when the argument is getting ridiculous.

 
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I think I can summarize what you're saying. "Baseball Prospectus readers are smarter than average baseball fans. Liberals are smarter than average people. Therefore, most Baseball Prospectus readers are liberals." I'm glad you cited the "thumbs-up, thumbs-down" rating system, because we all know that to be an infallible system of public perception. Excuse my sarcasm, but I found your first paragraph to be hopelessly ignorant and self-aggrandizing. For your second paragraph, I'm going to break my cardinal rule of posting here and be blunt with my criticism: That's just stupid. Equating intelligence with a particular political leaning and backing that up with an asinine +/- ranking system on a comment board. Are you serious?

 
CRP13
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This type of writing will keep me renewing my subscription.

Sep 15, 2011 9:26 AM on Ghosts of MVPs Past
 
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"a deceitful regime interested in extracting every last bit of capital from a national tragedy." This is a perfect example of what I have a problem with. A gross exaggeration of opinion does not tie in well with an article about sports. An author of a site that revolves around a non-political topic needs to recognize that a sentence like the one I just quoted is going to piss off half of his readership. How is that in the best interest of anybody around here?

 
CRP13
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For the record, I have no issue with the idea of Steven or anybody else pushing their political agenda in their articles. But please...please...tie it into the subject in a way that makes sense, even if some of us disagree. I'm just not sure the comparison between "hatgate" and the widely-debated cause of the Iraq War was in good taste, nor was it sufficiently explained to make the point. Call me simple, but I read the last few paragraphs several times and still don't see the connection. The connection between "hatgate" and the cost of a war Steven obviously disagrees with was not made either. No matter the presentation format, complaints about the cost of a 10-year war fall on deaf ears for me when more has been spent in the past 2 years on an ineffectual government "bailout" of the banks that caused this economic mess and a health-care plan that has already had a major component ruled unconstitutional. Just saying...the article would have been more effective without three of the last four paragraphs.

 
CRP13
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You mean, he's NOT??????? wtf.

 
CRP13
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Hah. Why am I not surprised I'm getting minused like crazy. Never go against the popular opinion, folks.

 
CRP13
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I probably should have phrased that differently.

 
CRP13
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Damn. And here we thought you were clinging to the dingleberries of perfection.

 
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I think some of your tangents into political opinion are irrelevant. The article would be more credible without them, despite your appropriate disclaimer at the top. Meanwhile, I agree with your stance on Selig and the stupidity and arrogance in the handling of the situation.

 
CRP13
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Ties should end with a fight between team mascots. It makes as much sense as how Soccer ends their ties.

Sep 14, 2011 8:41 AM on Commissioner for a Day
 
CRP13
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These days, Val is closer to 4'10" horizontally...

Sep 14, 2011 8:39 AM on Commissioner for a Day
 
CRP13
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Great stuff. Though I hate that the only mention an Astros prospect gets is to head the "biggest disappointment" category. Ouch. Also, is Scheppers a position player now?

 
CRP13
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Darn.

Sep 14, 2011 6:22 AM on Washington Nationals
 
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The Nationals should probably move Morse to LF and overpay for Prince Fielder. I haven't actually read the article yet. I just wanted to post that and see if Bowden suggested adding Fielder for this team as well. :)

Sep 14, 2011 6:21 AM on Washington Nationals
 
CRP13
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Jason.....how tall are you? And does this cause you to have a not-so-hidden agenda? :P

Sep 14, 2011 6:16 AM on Commissioner for a Day
 
CRP13
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For a 20-year old on a god awful team, the fact that Lyles hasn't completely broken down in the face of guys like Pujols, Votto, and Fielder needs to be classified as a win. The numbers aren't there - but this season, it was never about that.

Sep 09, 2011 9:54 AM on The Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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I think they partnered with the Rockets to form the network, so that's definitely one thing. Of course, the NBA may never play again...

 
CRP13
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Possibly even....Sacramento?

 
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As the token Astros fan on Baseball Prospectus, I feel obligated to ask the following question: Is Mark Buehrle really a better left-handed pitching option than Wandy Rodriguez? Their stats of the past 5 years would beg to differ. With Buehrle currently making $14M, there's not a real strong argument that he will be significantly cheaper next season, either.

Sep 08, 2011 10:14 AM on The Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Shouldn't this have been posted in May?

Sep 08, 2011 9:22 AM on The Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Because that wouldn't take ANY time at all to compile, and Kevin because isn't busy with, you know, other stuff.

 
CRP13
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That always confuses me. Isn't he in Central America now? :)

 
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I think students in the other 49 states should be required to take Texas history like we were in the TX public school system. A fascinating subject with lessons that apply to, apparently, everything from baseball to airport etiquette. Another really fun read.

 
CRP13
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On second glance, I just noticed "The Oracle" at the top. Bringing anything Neverending Story into baseball is golden.

 
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This makes me happy.

 
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Where have you been John?

 
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Go ahead, minus me. You know you don't have a good reason.

Aug 31, 2011 1:13 PM on "Well played, Mauer"
 
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Career 300/400/500. His hitting is not up to my hair standards. Good question, though.

Aug 31, 2011 11:32 AM on "Well played, Mauer"
 
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While I wouldn't blame the commercials for his performance or durability, I will say that as a baseball fan, I roll my eyes every time I see his mug in a commercial. A little voice in my mind says, "Overrated, Overpaid, Injury-Prone baseball celebrity thinks you should use this shampoo." I find it a little sad that only a couple of his eight major league seasons have truly had noticeable impact, but he's treated as a superstar by the media and fans. Them's fightin' words, and I'm sure some people will have a problem with them.

Aug 31, 2011 9:31 AM on "Well played, Mauer"
 
CRP13
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I don't understand. He's not good. What's the appeal? Dang, now I'm heretical.

 
CRP13
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Something else you might enjoy. This was the featured photo on Wikipedia today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1909_Pittsburgh_Pirates_on_a_boat_FINAL.jpg

Aug 29, 2011 10:40 AM on Trot Times for August 26
 
CRP13
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I'm sorry, I can't help commenting. Did the announcer really say, "A 3-run Jimmy Jack for Russell Branyon?" Is that actual baseball slang, or just nonsense made up spur of the moment? Is it his usual shtick? Because it just sounded ridiculous.

 
CRP13
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Why should he, when another team would likely overpay just to have him at all?

Aug 29, 2011 8:16 AM on The September Stretch
 
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Three Astros prospects in one Future Shock? My heart just stopped. Incidentally, Oberholtzer is an Astros prospect, not Braves.

 
CRP13
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Surprised to see no Carlos Silva or Barry Zito mention.

 
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Wow. I used to think that Dontrelle Willis was a headcase who built an undeserved reputation on a couple good seasons. His quote above shows he's a pretty mature dude with a good sense of perspective. I guess it's easy to think the worst of players who don't perform to expectations, but this just shows the dangers of stereotyping and jumping to conclusions. My bad, Dontrelle.

 
CRP13
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"See the second rule?" I don't understand. How does not talking about Fight Club apply?

Aug 23, 2011 6:36 AM on The Best of the Best
 
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just to clarify, I meant mlb.com's depth chart, not BP's. BP auto-added the link. Whatev.

 
CRP13
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Vogelsong listed #4 on Giants' depth chart too.

 
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That solves MY ethical quandry.

 
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Oh yes, I forgot. Weirdos! :)

 
CRP13
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That's a Freudian slip if I ever saw one...

 
CRP13
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I thought you said you grew up in New York. Only Europeans say, "I went to university there." You went to college, dude. This is America for Pete's sake.

 
CRP13
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Or to paraphrase, your team is the one whose lineup you know the best, except the Yankees.

 
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Depends on how old you are now. There's a mathematical formula to determine this. Alternate method: My mom lived in Cincinnati for the first 35 years of her life, then moved to Houston. She maintained she was a Reds fan until I said "Name the Reds' starting lineup." She said "Griffey...uh....". Then I said "Name the Astros starting lineup." I believe she named six or seven of them. If you can't name your old team's entire starting lineup, you root for the new one.

 
CRP13
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This sadly isn't an option for Astros fans. All of their minor league affiliates have a winning percentage of .170

 
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It's conceivable that there are better pitchers in AAA and AA than there are in High-A. Just saying.

 
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Nothing like overpaying for a veteran after a career year. Brett Myers smiles knowingly.

Aug 18, 2011 2:34 PM on Royals Extend Francoeur
 
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Dante Bichette. Now why couldn't my parents have named me something like that?

 
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Seeing Santana's name here begs an off-topic question: Are all four of the prospects received for Hunter Pence better than the three received for Michael Bourn?

 
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Looks like the jury is in. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, & Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie? Ouch. Rays win again.

Aug 15, 2011 1:26 PM on Delmon Dealt UPDATED
 
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Too many tweets from people saying, "WHY HASNT MY PLAYER SIGNED YET WTFZ0RZ" or something equally intelligent?

 
CRP13
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Also, he's an outfielder, right?

 
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If Springer doesn't sign, I'm going to make my family really happy and revert to being a Reds fan.

 
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Right. Nobody's disputing the fact that Helms' performance has been pretty terrible.

Aug 15, 2011 11:26 AM on Morrison Demoted
 
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Instructed by Wes Helms, his union rep. Who was released at the same time as Morrison's demotion. Hmm...

Aug 15, 2011 8:07 AM on Morrison Demoted
 
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This is a pretty interesting take on Morrison's demotion. Sounds like there's a possibility of good old-fashioned company-versus-union going on here.

Aug 14, 2011 6:14 PM on Morrison Demoted
 
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CRP13
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Hi. This is a good article, and I'm going to get minused for this comment--probably a lot. But it's disappointing to me that BP came out with this article about Uggla's BABIP being the driving factor behind his struggles AND his streak two full days after Sports Illustrated published an almost identical one. I used to see more cutting-edge or new ideas here with more frequency than I have been in the last several months. It's been a while since I've seen anything genuinely groundbreaking here. Regardless, the article was good and I enjoy reading BP's content.

 
CRP13
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Wow what a great article concept. Jose Altuve?

Aug 11, 2011 7:55 AM on Middle-Infield Mayhem
 
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R.J., I am sick enough of Strasburgmania that I almost didn't click this article. Just wanted to let you know I really enjoyed it. Nice piece.

 
CRP13
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What the hell is your point and what does it have to do with this article?

 
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That's what she said. Sorry, I couldn't help myself. I'm a bad person.

 
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This is the quietest "BP Podcast" EVER.

 
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Trust me, I'm not excited. Sadly though, it is more fun watching crappy rookies play than it was to watch crappy veterans. These are dark days in Houston.

Aug 10, 2011 8:10 AM on Anonymastros
 
CRP13
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And for the record, I'm giddy as a schoolboy that BP has published an Astros article two days in a row.

Aug 10, 2011 7:10 AM on Anonymastros
 
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Tommy, while I agree that the Astros (to put it nicely) will suck pretty hard, I disagree with some of your reasoning. Citing KG's preseason top-11 prospects list is not really a concrete argument. I seem to remember KG and others saying of particularly Altuve and Martinez that they confounded scouts. By their bodies and personal histories, they don't LOOK like they're going to be good players. On the other hand, they said, both players continued to hit and play exceptionally well coming into the season. The prevailing thought was "let's see what they do in 2011 before deciding if they're for real." Martinez was actually listed on one source's top 100 lists. The biggest question about Altuve at the time (aside from his size) was if he was a Lancaster fiction. He proved that he wasn't once he reached AA, and then again in a small sample size in the majors. Martinez never played in Lancaster, so his even more impressive statistics are no more inflated than most minor leaguers. Cumulative minor league slash lines of 342/407/551 for Martinez and 327/386/481 for Altuve were "skeptical eyebrow raising" last season, but became "impressive eyebrow raising" during the course of 2011. I am not the type of Astros fan that thinks Altuve is the next Craig Biggio or that Martinez is a future MVP candidate. But I think that using a preseason prospect list to prove your point is pretty shaky ground, particularly when talking about a couple guys who have done nothing but prove the scouts wrong their whole careers, and do not shown signs of regression now that they're in the majors.

Aug 10, 2011 7:07 AM on Anonymastros
 
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CRP13
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Giavotella or Altuve?

 
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I want to see statistics on word output per week. I suspect KG and John Perroto rank #1 and #2. When you're basically churning out 10+ posts a week, it's really asinine to point out minor grammatical flaws.

 
CRP13
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This is why I read Baseball Prospectus. Manager-wise: Isn't CB a pretty good manager? He seems to try his best to have his team in position to win, but is constantly stymied by Snoopy's indifference and Lucy's attention span. His managing style is pretty good, I think, as he seems infinitely patient with a team that has inferior talent. The fact that he's held the managerial position for 50 years alone has to put him above Mills.

 
CRP13
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I think it's a little early to presume the Astros are giving up on Wallace. I suspect it's more to clear his head and to free up AB in the outfield for JD Martinez and Jason Bourgeois.

 
CRP13
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Wallace was getting shredded. I suspect the move was to A) shake him up a little bit because his media comments lately have been complacent, and B) let him work on his swing with less pressure.

 
CRP13
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Very, very, very, very arguably.

Aug 01, 2011 12:57 PM on Trade Deadline Winners
 
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At first thought, I thought so. I don't agree anymore. 4 prospects who almost certainly will make the major leagues for an average center fielder? Yes please. Schafer was a top prospect only two years ago, remember. He didn't get fleeced.

Aug 01, 2011 12:57 PM on Trade Deadline Winners
 
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And I would call those people crazy, and I'm an Astros fan. Pence and Bourn aren't superstars, and the Astros got seven future major leaguers and a PTNL for them. Honestly, expectations were too high.

Aug 01, 2011 10:04 AM on Trade Deadline Winners
 
CRP13
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Thanks for this. I totally disagreed with Jayson Stark's article today that called the Astros a "loser" at the deadline. How do these trades NOT help their long-term plans?

Aug 01, 2011 8:20 AM on Trade Deadline Winners
 
CRP13
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Agreed. I wouldn't compare him to Figgins, though. Defensive metrics rate Bourn as excellent and Figgins as terrible. As similar as their hitting is, Bourn is a slightly better baserunner and definitely more valuable on defense. By a lot. But I agree it seems Astros fans' expectations about what they should get back for Bourn were a little out of whack.

 
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Not likely. Doubtful that Andrew Freidman or whoever the GM will be next season would do that. Besides...it's easy to slam Wade for trading with the Phillies often, but this is a pretty good return for an outfielder who looks to be limited at 20 HR and 15 SB.

 
CRP13
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It does seem a lot kinder than I expected. It feels like Kevin has taken pity on Astros fans and given us an "all hope is not lost, yet" article. It's appreciated, but you can't blame a downtrodden Houstonian for being a little jaded at this point.

 
CRP13
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2 middling starter prospects, a middling reliever prospect, and Jordan Schafer.

 
CRP13
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Where did you dig up that old photo of Pence?

 
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Jason's writing is like poetry, only it doesn't have a meter, doesn't suck, and often has a point.

 
CRP13
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I snatched up Kendrys Morales in a keeper league for next year. I like that bet, considering he cost me almost nothing.

Jul 29, 2011 8:44 AM on A Market Inefficiency
 
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Years from now, a textbook collection of your BP articles will be used as a baseball-rooted platform to study the inner workings of the human psyche. Good stuff.

 
CRP13
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P.S. Drinking a Shiner Kosmos as I type. Self-proclaimed hypocrite.

Jul 28, 2011 4:08 PM on Beltran by the Bay
 
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OK OK OK guys. "No drinking and typing with the Caps Lock on." Sheesh.

Jul 28, 2011 4:07 PM on Beltran by the Bay
 
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Only 11 prospects today? OH MY GOSH you are getting sooooooo lazy. Seriously, these updates are a high point of my work day.

 
CRP13
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Can your Astro Physicist calculate the number of years before Houston regains relevance?

 
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There's a strict "Don't drink and type" rule around here. Somebody fine this guy.

Jul 28, 2011 10:14 AM on Beltran by the Bay
 
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That reads a lot like rationalization to me. Bottom line is, the Cardinals gave up the best player in the deal, who is under team control for, like, forever, and in return got a starting pitcher they can't afford to keep after this year. They have $75 million next season tied up in Holliday, Carpenter, Lohse, Wainwright, Molina, and Westbrook. Then they have to pay the OTHER guys on the roster. THEN they are going to try to sign Pujols, and Berkman will walk. They should be building around cheap young talents like Rasmus, not trading them away for guys that will yield a draft pick in the mid-50's, at best. Big mistake.

 
CRP13
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I just want to point out how awesome you are for getting this TA out so quickly. All the "turnover" at BP aside and what that implies, we used to have to wait a day or two for BP's thoughts on big trades.

 
CRP13
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I wouldn't be a major league umpire for all the tea in China. Maybe all the MONEY in China. But not the tea.

Jul 27, 2011 1:13 PM on Meals Money
 
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You got committed this morning? Thanks for the post.

 
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Warms my heart to see the 2010 Astros at #4.

 
CRP13
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haha I was reading the comments as I watched the video, and couldn't figure out what you were talking about. Then...sure enough! A Denny's Grand Slam. Classic.

 
CRP13
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EXACTLY my point below. Forest through the trees, and all that.

Jul 25, 2011 11:22 AM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
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I've never found strikeout-to-Win ratio to be particularly useful, myself.

Jul 25, 2011 10:56 AM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
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"I think in the long run, the decision to retire SIERA in favor of FIP ends up accentuating commonality, not difference, in the sabermetric community." I agree, and that's what I'm applauding. At the same time, I see Richard's point about the tone and timing. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't. I have no beef with this decision.

Jul 25, 2011 6:32 AM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

You missed my point. If people thought the world was flat, and somebody said, "no it's round" and presented evidence, but then somebody else said, "it's egg-shaped," then presented different evidence, then they both started flinging mud to discredit the other....why should I, as someone who has thought the world was flat all my life, give either of you the time of day?

Jul 24, 2011 6:29 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Rather than minusing me, I would have preferred whoever you are to reply and let me know what you disagree with.

Jul 24, 2011 6:24 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

Might have been more politic to say "We're retiring SIERA because we decided it's too complicated for any gain that it gives, please email us privately if you want more information," but I really don't think the crowd that comes around here would have stood for that. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. In a few weeks, this article will drop off the home page and we'll all move on with life.

Jul 24, 2011 6:19 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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^^ This, though my perspective (as a non-statistician who just has a weird fetish for spreadsheets) is a lot more big-picture than even what you're talking about. Above, I mentioned axiom's I don't like; another one is, "Good enough is the enemy of great." That one's crap because, look, it's nice if we can gain a hundredth of a decimal point of "accuracy" in projecting a stat for a game of sports, but not if it takes utilizing differential equations and 10th-order polynomials. Especially when compared to (for example) FIP, which is a plain ol' 7th-grade pre-algebra formula that gets us 90% of the way there. I don't see complexity for minimal gain as progress in the war against outdated statistics like Wins, Saves, and "scrappiness". In this particular case, unless there's a compelling argument why we need to add complexity, good enough truly is good enough. I think that's the layman's terms of what you guys are trying to say, right Mike? It's not that you DON'T want to improve, it's just that you want to use a little bit of common sense in how you go about it. Those of us who don't sleep with a copy of "Applied Regression Analysis and Generalized Linear Models" thank you.

Jul 24, 2011 6:16 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

He's my new favorite person then. I always come here first, but often throw my hands up and go to Baseball Reference or Fangraphs to finish my work. Thanks for the info!

Jul 24, 2011 1:07 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

This article and all the comments are a perfect "Exhibit A" of why mainstream media and regular baseball folks can't take sabermetrics seriously. We bitch and whine about how Joe Morgan talks about clubhouse chemistry, the value of pitcher Wins, and batting average, but when two different sites (with familiar authors, I might add) disagree about what is fundamentally a few hundredths of a decimal point, the proverbial poo hits the proverbial fan. I love the topic and the conversation. But it's pretty hypocritical (of all of us) to stand on our high horses and decry that the "world is flat" mentality of those like Murray Chass is ridiculous, yet we are completely unable to present a unified alternative. It's the same problem I see at work. More people like to yell and holler about the problems, but nobody really talks about a solution. P.S., this wasn't directed at Colin or BP, it was just a general bitch session.

Jul 24, 2011 1:06 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

I know it's there, I've used it before. But it's not easily find-able. I've harped on this for a while, and suggested it during the last regime change, when suggestions were asked for: The glossary is atrocious, full of circular references, partial explanations that are barely in english, and no easy-to-find formulae (usually buried in some link to some other article). Maybe it's because I'm married to a graphic designer and have a picky view of presentation now, but the stats and glossary pages are the least usable parts of this site. No I'm not cancelling my subscription over it. Kevin and Jason make it money well spent.

Jul 24, 2011 12:52 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 7

Not that it necessarily applies to the conversation, but I never liked that quote. Every person I've run into whose said "it's not personal, it's business," seems to be hiding behind that quote in order to do something that's personally tasteless. Completely irrelevant thought. I just don't like that axiom.

Jul 24, 2011 12:49 PM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

If I may, part of the problem with SIERA was that the calculations were not easily accessible. I can find the calculation for FIP in any number of places and apply them to the posts I write. I tried on numerous occasions to use SIERA because I felt that it had strong theory behind it, but actually locating the formula to calculate it was next to impossible. As is wading through BP's not-very-user-friendly statistics page. Without really understanding 75% of what you wrote in this article (I'm no statistician), it seems to me that the problem could have been solved with a little added accessibility and usability for commoners like myself.

Jul 23, 2011 6:11 AM on Lost in the SIERA Madre
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

You guys are damn good at this. One request: A short (maybe one sentence) reminder of what AGL and ATD are would be great at the top of these. Just for those of us that have trouble with acronyms.

Jul 22, 2011 12:08 PM on Sticks and Stones
 
CRP13
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"I don’t mention this because I enjoy being a wet blanket, draining my boils over every parade I come across." I want to congratulate your imagery. I loved this sentence.

 
CRP13
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CRP13
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Oh god, I hope I never read the phrase, "massive amounts of jockflesh will be migrating around" ever again. Ever. Please. Yikes.

 
CRP13
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ouch

 
CRP13
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Then you should'a! My perspective is different, but that's part of the fun.

 
CRP13
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If you read the article that is linked in the first paragraph, it actually does. I'm not trying to raise a stink. I just don't think alienating half your readership is necessary.

 
CRP13
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Dang, that's what I get for going home sick today. Had I been slacking off at work, I would have caught this!

 
CRP13
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I asked when he was in High A, and your answer was "when he does it in Double-A". Are we allowed to get excited about Altuve yet?

 
CRP13
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One of the priests at my church sometimes uses politics to make a point in his homilies, and it always drives me crazy. I eventually realized that he doesn't believe that his particular slant, even if inferred from context clues, colors the opinions of his congregation about what he's trying to say, even when the overall point is valid. Especially when it's valid. Sometimes it makes the listeners want to examine all of his words under a finer microscope than they probably should, just because of a fundamental difference of opinion on a totally unrelated subject. That's my way of saying this is a really good article that draws conclusions I agree with, but my life would be much happier if my baseball were not colored by politics.

 
CRP13
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65 grade now, 80 future.

 
CRP13
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You claim to not be a professional writer. Are you sure?

 
CRP13
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But see, the thing is, who on the Pirates is exciting enough to watch on a regular basis? Andrew McCutchen, and............? Even the Astros (Sadly) have more interesting players. Great that the Pirates are doing well, but they're pretty dull.

Jul 18, 2011 9:07 AM on Excitement Central
 
CRP13
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When I glanced at the headline on the home page, I thought it read "Excrement Central". Given the pretty terrible play in the NL Central this season, maybe my title would have been more appropriate.

Jul 18, 2011 6:32 AM on Excitement Central
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 11

I have no requests to change the format of this list, move a prospect up, or add 100 more spots. Just wanted to say thanks, its always fun when we get to see a list. P.S. could you move Altuve up, please?

 
CRP13
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At least we can agree on that.

 
CRP13
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Good point, I missed the "contending" thing. Still, I don't see any purpose in him being in AAA...doesn't he have enough MLB service time that his arb clock is ticking?

 
CRP13
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Kevin, I have not found a Leinenkugel beer that I enjoy here in Houston, though their varieties are readily available. I will say that my wife has never met a Leinenkugel that she doesn't like, and her favorite is the BerryWeiss. I won't draw conclusions on your beer tastes based on those facts, but you might want to rethink your life.

 
CRP13
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Kyle Blanks is farting in the air conditioning in AAA while the Padres have no offense.

Jul 15, 2011 10:17 AM on Five Non-Trade Solutions
 
CRP13
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Colon did a bang-up job of it last night. 8 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Yowch. Everybody had to know that was coming at some point.

 
CRP13
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I feel old now.

Jul 15, 2011 7:14 AM on Clean Clemens?
 
CRP13
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Thanks for this. Some of us actually are Astros fans (yes, we do exist), and articles like this are like popcorn thrown to a starving squirrel.

Jul 15, 2011 7:09 AM on Astros Appreciation
 
CRP13
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Yep. I just thought the slip (pre-correction) was amusing.

 
CRP13
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You know, dependent on whether that's Arlington, TX or Arlington Heights, IL. Always read carefully, boys and girls.

 
CRP13
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Dang, that might have been worth a drive up from Houston, had I known.

 
CRP13
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Saying your podcast is different from broadcast radio is kind of like saying some of your musical guests are different from Gregorian Chant. It's just not something that can be adequately explained using words.

 
CRP13
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This is the truth. You've really filled a void, Jason, and I don't mean that as a slight on BP or any other authors either.

 
CRP13
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"a lamented all-access credential"? If you feel that way...want to change jobs? Fantastic article

 
CRP13
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Honestly, I have trouble bothering to read arguments when somebody leans on a childish moniker like "A-Roid" and thinks it's a solid point.

Jul 11, 2011 2:23 PM on Heroes and Villains
 
CRP13
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Pirates? Royals? Are those Major League Soccer teams?

Jul 11, 2011 2:22 PM on Heroes and Villains
 
CRP13
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Have you ever, you know, talked to somebody from New England who's not the type of stats junkie that frequents this site?

Jul 11, 2011 2:20 PM on Heroes and Villains
 
CRP13
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Hah! Well played. Here is another.

Jul 11, 2011 10:31 AM on Surprise, Surprise
 
CRP13
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P.S. Still trying to get the nerve.

Jul 11, 2011 10:01 AM on Surprise, Surprise
 
CRP13
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My first thought was, "What a useless addition." Then I clicked, and got sucked into an article from back when I was still trying to get the nerve to talk to a girl my age. Then I got sucked into another. There goes my free time.

Jul 11, 2011 10:00 AM on Surprise, Surprise
 
CRP13
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Eating BBQ nachos without making a huge mess is probably harder than throwing a gyroball, so I'm not sure that's an apt comparison. :)

Jul 11, 2011 8:29 AM on Futures Game Stars
 
CRP13
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Hilariously impossible. I love it. Except I've been in Houston 20+ years and I've never seen a prairie here. But that's totally nitpicking. Let's get this change done.

 
CRP13
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Has Michael Kvasnicka already gone from first-rounder to never-will-be? His numbers aren't very impressive, but surely there's something there to warrant his draft position...

 
CRP13
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Ovando, not Ogando. Sorry, I get my G's and V's confused sometimes.

Jul 06, 2011 11:53 AM on The Brad and the Ugly
 
CRP13
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I do follow Houston, and I've maintained that Wade isn't the biggest problem of the past six years. He's not a good GM (so I wouldn't complain about a change), but he is not responsible for the current disaster that the franchise is facing. They've improved in the draft (Wade hired Bobby Heck), they've improved in the international market (after Purpura let it go to hell in a handbasket...Ogando and Altuve look like pretty nice pieces), and none of their trades have caused short- or long-term suffering to the team. How's Oswalt doing right now? How are Jason Hirsch and Willy Taveras doing? Felipe Paulino? Wade has never had the flexibility to spend on big-budget free agents, was never allowed to trade his biggest pieces until it was too late. Berkman was in the midst of a 2-year career worst slump when traded (due to Berkman's own admitted slacking). Wade is not nearly as bad as the blame he's getting right now. No, hard-core Houston fans know the blame lies on a bullheaded ownership group and a team president that has his head fixed squarely in the seventies.

Jul 06, 2011 11:51 AM on The Brad and the Ugly
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Jimmy Wynn was signing autographs at Minute Maid on Saturday when I was there. I was sad. He had crutches, and nobody was at the table waiting for an autograph. But yeah, the list at Minute Maid should be Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell. You could make a pretty convincing argument for Joe Niekro as well, yet his name isn't on the wall. Why is Jim Umbricht retired? What happened to him really sucked, but he pitched 3 full seasons, was a reliever, and was a member of the Colt 45's for only 2 seasons. Am I heartless?

 
CRP13
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Did you really come on here and quote ERA and Wins as stats by which to judge a pitcher? For shame. This isn't ESPN.

Jul 04, 2011 3:49 PM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
CRP13
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Hard to say that Holliday has a definitive statistical edge over Braun, Kemp, Berkman, McCutchen, Upton, or even Pence, who isn't shown any love either. Maybe in some of the stats you mentioned, but clearly not in others.

Jul 02, 2011 2:15 PM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
CRP13
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Fun feature, but I'd also like to see a list of numbers that ARE retired, but SHOULDN'T be. Half the numbers that grace the walls of Minute Maid Park, for example. Dierker, Wynn, Cruz Jr, Umbricht, Wilson. Yawn.

 
CRP13
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I was looking forward to Jason Parks' vote for R.A. Dickey. I guess he didn't get a ballot this year.

Jul 01, 2011 8:06 AM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
CRP13
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You guys are behind the times. According to the New York media, Derek Jeter ascended to the highest plane years ago.

 
CRP13
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This question indicates to me that it's probably happened before.

 
CRP13
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CRP13
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I agree with every word of this. The problem is, this is a situation where nobody is right. But Riggleman definitively loses in this case, and Rizzo isn't harmed, and Johnson wins. All Riggleman really did was stiff himself out of about $300K and minimized the possibility of future major league jobs. So yeah, I agree, but the only person harmed here is Riggleman.

Jun 27, 2011 2:22 PM on The Hubris of Riggleman
 
CRP13
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what?

Jun 27, 2011 6:37 AM on The Hubris of Riggleman
 
CRP13
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Oh sure. I really don't know how I feel. If I was in his position, I'd at least consider doing the exact same thing. But you can't deny the implications on the rest of his career.

Jun 27, 2011 6:37 AM on The Hubris of Riggleman
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

That's kind of like saying that back in the mid-90's, Creed's stock had never been higher, when compared to other bands. A very brief period of semi-fame cannot hide the suck that lies beneath.

Jun 24, 2011 12:37 PM on The Hubris of Riggleman
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

Compared to new Astros owner Jim Crane (link to Forbes.com), Cuban sounds like a Boy Scout. All this nonsense about about being gentlemanly, playing by the rules, and respect is hypocritical babble, considering the newest MLB owner has had serious allegations of racial and sex discrimination, war profiteering, and a history of sketchy dealings with MLB. My point is not to bash Crane, as none of that has much to do with the Astros, but rather to point out that the ONLY reason MLB doesn't like Cuban is because he's an outspoken pain in the ass who is more popular than some of his players. That's a dangerous thing to have nearby for a noted control freak like Selig. All their stated reasons against him are just noise.

Jun 24, 2011 8:12 AM on Dodging Cuban
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

We miss you.

Jun 24, 2011 7:54 AM on Minnesota Miscasts
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

I agree with what you're saying. However, with all respect, there is a gulf of a difference between being a contractor and being a major league baseball manager. He was getting an annual salary that, while low for baseball standards, is more than 99% of this site's readership. In a job that only 30 men out of the world's six-plus billion people can hold. I think it's pretty slimy that Rizzo held him on one year contracts for so long, but the reality is, he just walked away from most fans' dream job. Talk about cutting off his nose to spite his face.

Jun 24, 2011 6:46 AM on The Hubris of Riggleman
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 4

Brilliant.

Jun 24, 2011 6:35 AM on Los Angeles' Ashes
 
CRP13
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The problem is, how do you quantify the cost of failure for a GM in the bronx? It pains me to say it, but reality is if a prospect gets called up and he costs the Yankees a few games, that could mean Cashman's job. Meanwhile, I don't see anybody firing him for sticking with fan favs Posada and Jeter. It's a classic Catch-22 situation. Cashman wants his prospects and he wants them to play, but the low chances of those prospects having star-power on par with their replacements' heydays is enough to get him run out of town on a rail. If I were Cashman, I'd be hesitant too, even knowing the possible benefits.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

I saw BP Podcast in the article heading on the main page and got excited. Such a tease.

 
CRP13
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And this is the first and last time one sees Albert Pujols and J.R. Towles mentioned in the same headline.

Jun 22, 2011 6:37 AM on Hasta Luego, Albert
 
CRP13
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I wasn't being sarcastic. I know Kevin would report something if it were worth reporting. I was just wondering if there were any other legitimate prospects of interest, even way down in Rookie ball.

 
CRP13
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Are there any other Astros prospect that you at least glance at in your daily checks, besides Altuve? Keep in mind, "No" is a perfectly acceptable answer.

 
CRP13
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CRP13
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I heard on the radio that along with Altuve's promotion to AA, he also gained 2 inches and 20 pounds in the team's promo guides. Not a bad day.

 
CRP13
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And also, I haven't heard that he was a bad catcher, just that since he had a bat, they wanted to save his knees. Seemed to work out.

 
CRP13
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Honest mistake about Span, no harm, no foul. I hope you understand the points I was making anyway.

May 31, 2011 2:24 PM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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Oh, and for the "Zenith", older folks would call the Casey Stengel Yankees of the 50's the "Zenith" of the New York Yankees. Older folks and historians might say the "Zenith" would be the late-20's Babe Ruth Yankees. Baby Boomers may even say it's the 1977-78 Yankees, while Gen-X'ers will insist the Torre Yankees were the most successful group, and therefore the "Zenith". It's not that you're wrong, it's just that it's a matter of perspective. I didn't have the privilege of reading Silver, Huckaby, et al, but I did get to read some of the other BP-Alum greats. The fact that there was great work done here in the past does not mean that BP has peaked, or that they're incapable of reaching such heights again, because to do so would be to unfairly discount the great work being done right now on PECOTA, the until recently ignored Fantasy crowd, injury databases, and the creative outlets offered by Granillo and Funck.

May 31, 2011 12:31 PM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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I understand, and I have been around long enough to read all of those you named (except Nate, alas). I count Christina and Will among the best baseball reads I've encountered, but MY point is their departure does not lessen the quality of the individual "new" writers. Same as you, some of the new writers have really grown on me. Some others, I don't read so much. But the clamor by many indicating the end of the world because some writers are moving on to bigger opportunities is tiresome. Again, to summarize: It sucks that they left, but that does not lead to the conclusion that the replacements are no good. It's the old square/rectangle logic. As to your own comment above, my ONLY beef was the "Span = 3" part. I was one of the fiercest objectioneers to her inaugural article about baseball fanfic, but I've found her subsequent articles to be entertaining at the least. I just thought your allusion that she wasn't good enough to hack it was tasteless and lowbrow.

May 31, 2011 12:21 PM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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To AA I mean, not the majors.

 
CRP13
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Any noise about an Altuve promotion? Or are the Astros taking the "we really suck, so why rush things" approach?

 
CRP13
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Easy to say, hard to do, but brush it off. The only statistical certainty in life is that there will always be grumpy complainy people around.

May 31, 2011 11:24 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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Steven, thanks for this article. Even though everything you said is completely logical and as somebody pointed out, should be obvious to a mature adult, it's nice to see in print. Subscribers are kind of like investors, and we like to see some behind-the-scenes sometimes to have confidence in throwing our money at you. There's a lot of negativity here that I can't figure out, because I think all of the new writers in the past year have been stellar.

May 31, 2011 10:05 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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You must not listen to the podcast. Kevin's on top of his game.

May 31, 2011 10:03 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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Well played, schoolboy.

May 31, 2011 10:01 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Don't know about that, but what I do know is that in the 24+ months I've been a subscriber, amazin_mess has had nothing positive to say. About anybody.

May 31, 2011 10:01 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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Weak.

May 31, 2011 9:59 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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Disagreeing with rudeness isn't the hallmark of a fanboy. It's an indicator of a decent human being.

May 31, 2011 9:58 AM on The Evolving Prospectus
 
CRP13
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When are Astros fans allowed to get excited about Altuve?

 
CRP13
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P.P.S. I've lived in Houston for 20 years. And my family hates me for it, but I much prefer southern chili to the Cincinnati version. Both good, but the Cincinnati verision IS a glorified (but tasty) meat-based condiment.

 
CRP13
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Oh Yes... Crumble raw meat in water (meat can be frozen). Add ingredients, simmer w/lid on, about 3 hours, stirring occasionally. Serve over spaghetti, topped with cheese (3-way); add chopped onions (4-way); add red (kidney) beans (5-way). Don't forget the oyster crackers. Also good on hot dogs, bratwurst, etc.

 
CRP13
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Jason: here is my family's Cincinnati (Empress) Chile recipe. We probably jacked it from somewhere, but my family is from Cincinnati all the way back to Cincinnatus himself, and this is what they cook. 1 qt. water 2-lbs ground beef, browned and drained 1/2 tsp cumin 1 tsp cinnamon 2 large onions 2 dashes Worcestershire sauce 1 clove garlic, chopped (or 1/8 tsp garlic powder) 1 Tbsp chili powder 1/2 Tbsp black pepper 1/2 Tbsp salt 1/2 tsp cayenne pepper (2) 6-1/2 oz cans tomato paste ** 1 Tbsp vinegar 1/2 Tbsp allspice 3 Bay leaves Cook all 2-3 hours in a big pot. Real easy. **May substitute either: 1 can tomato paste & 1 can tomato sauce or: 2 cans tomato sauce (use less water!)

 
CRP13
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"If Jim Crane is approved as the Astros owner, as expected, he will likely ask general manager Ed Wade to hire a statistical analyst to help in player evaluations." I can't decide. Am I happy about this, or am I angry that this wasn't done a decade ago?!?!?!?!?

May 27, 2011 7:37 AM on Can the Braves Contend?
 
CRP13
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Reading between the ellipses, I will translate. Carlos Gonzalez >>>>> Tim Wheeler. Wheeler hit 249/341/348 in High A last season (510 AB). Maybe he figured something out, but still...comparing him to CarGo? For the record, in his last stop at High A (though it WAS Lancaster...), Gonzalez hit 300/356/563 in 2006.

 
CRP13
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So...this Mantle guy was a good player, huh?

 
CRP13
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Kevin, any insight into what the heck happened to Kazmir? Talk about a guy who looked like he had a great career ahead of him...

 
CRP13
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I used a boatload of fuzzy math and did some questionable conclusion-jumping, but my resulting spreadsheet tells me that A and B are pretty darn close to equal. I'm sure I made a mess of it, so I'll be interested to know the result and the best way to reach it.

May 24, 2011 10:27 AM on A Batted Ball Puzzler
 
CRP13
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Geez, then drop it in excel and run text-to-columns using commas as the delimiter.

May 24, 2011 9:57 AM on A Batted Ball Puzzler
 
CRP13
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Fascinating stuff, Tom. I hope we get to read more of this "soundbyte" analysis.

 
CRP13
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I'm never sure if I learn anything or not reading Jason's articles. I kind of like that.

 
CRP13
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Just reading the blurb of this article on the home page, my first thought was, "again?"

 
CRP13
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Me and the other members of the "46,000" club want you to know that we do not approve, condone, or support his post.

 
CRP13
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Oh my gosh, I'm so excited to listen to this episode that I just dribbled like a puppy

 
CRP13
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Taking the over. Looking forward to this podcast a lot.

 
CRP13
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Nah. Air conditioning. I'm telling you, it's the wave of the future.

May 12, 2011 2:07 PM on Wrigley Field Forever?
 
CRP13
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May be a park for true baseball fans, but my hometeam's park is air-conditioned, which more than makes up for the difference.

May 12, 2011 2:05 PM on Wrigley Field Forever?
 
CRP13
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I doubt those panels are structural, but I sure wouldn't want to be a passer-by during high winds.

May 12, 2011 2:03 PM on Wrigley Field Forever?
 
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An episode that features the Astros? Kevin your gift to our sad city is much appreciated.

 
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Such a tease.

 
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Knowing the Astros, they'd probably throw money extending the time machine to a 6 year contract, despite the fact that it has "made in China" stamped on the side and Consumer Reports gives it a "bad" mark for reliability. 2 years into that contract, the time machine takes them back to 1961 before the team was formed and the current players go "poof" and cease to exist. To add insult to injury, this will be right about the same time that financial freedom and the farm system yield the type of players that can get them back to the playoffs. When the Astros cease to exist, Bud "Methuselah" Selig, in his final act as commissioner of baseball at age 973, creates an expansion team in his favorite city of Milwaukee, cross town from the Brewers, where he can enjoy baseball in cold weather until he dies at the ripe age of 2,541. As an Astros fan, that's pretty much what I expect anyway.

May 09, 2011 2:20 PM on Why Would They Do That?
 
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I find myself in the position of having Gaby Sanchez, Justin Smoak, and Eric Hosmer in my 18-team keeper league. What to do?

 
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Chris Johnson is still the best 3B the Astros have. Take that for what it's worth.

 
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That is kinda crazy...How did that happen?

 
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Whoever does the 1-paragraph blurb for each article on the home page has the best job on this site. April showers bring Jesus Flores? Pure poetry.

Apr 19, 2011 8:47 AM on A Farewell to Arms
 
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Last season, I remember (at MLB.com boards) the venom spewed on people who lauded Grant Desme for retiring and entering the priesthood. It doesn't matter if the person does something generally considered "good" or "bad", in the eyes of some fans. If it messes with their team, their grasp on reason completely eludes them and they become quick to throw around absurd claims of unfairness, racism, misplaced religious belief, or stereotyping. My gut feeling says the people who get offended by what you wrote above are the same people that jump on the bandwagon to blast players on other teams who have problems. Prime example in my own hometown was Miguel Tejada. Houston media and fans hated him when there were suspicions of PED's prior to the Mitchell Report. But when he signed with the Astros, suddenly he became "misunderstood" and Houston's favorite prodigal son. It's that kind of hypocrisy that makes fandom great and incredibly annoying all at the same time. Leuke doesn't deserve the opportunity he's been given, and Seattle fans would agree 100% with that statement...back when he played for the Rangers.

Apr 18, 2011 6:45 AM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
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I think in this past week you've had more mention of Astros' prospects than all of 2010 combined. Woohoo!

 
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Sorry if that sounded overly-snide. It wasn't meant to.

 
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No easy task to pick between Haren and Lee? I'll take the younger guy who was in a hitters park, yet gave up fewer hits and walks in more innings pitched, while striking out 200 more batters, with a lower ERA. Wasn't so hard for me.

 
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wtf is the minus for?

Apr 13, 2011 1:26 PM on Under Pressure
 
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I've been nothing but picky today, but Brandon Wood is not a pitcher for the Reds.

Apr 13, 2011 9:14 AM on For Amusement Only 4/13
 
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Adam Zimmerman?

Apr 13, 2011 9:11 AM on Under Pressure
 
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"...showed that humeral torque is at its maximum right at the end of the cocking phase. (That's what she said.) " So refreshing to have good baseball analysis that doesn't need to sound stuffy and serious. Thanks.

 
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I wasn't gonna go there because it's not relevant to the content, but I struggled through this one too. Editing was suspect in places.

 
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Great article by Lind. I wonder if he can turn his career around after his horrible 2010 season with Toronto?

Apr 12, 2011 10:45 AM on The Paper Trail 4/12
 
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What's Jarrod Parker's effective velocity and spin rate? Just when we thought we knew it all...

 
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John, just wanted to reiterate that these On the Beat articles have become one of my favorite features at BP. Thanks.

Apr 11, 2011 11:48 AM on The Heart of the Rockies
 
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I coulda sworn I read it a few times. Was it edited? Oh well.

 
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So Jeff Francoeur now weighs 35 pounds? I wonder what bat weight he uses now?

 
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+1 for "Whiny Douchebaggery", though I'm indifferent to everything else you wrote.

 
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Cool, thanks for sharing this.

 
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My brain just exploded.

 
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RE Bedard: Maybe I'm in a deeper league than most, but there's no way I'm sitting Bedard tonight. He's playing the INDIANS. I'd start my senile grandmother versus Cleveland this season.

Apr 04, 2011 9:43 AM on Weekly Planner #1
 
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Pfft, the whole concept of "closer" leaves me rolling my eyes these days. It's hard to take the top money guys like Lyon seriously when teams like the Rays and Marlins plop different guys into the role every season with no real noticeable changes. You'd think more GMs would realize that overpaying for a position that volatile and ultimately replaceable is a waste of resources that only serves to give unsophisticated reporters (read: NOT you Larry, but the stereotypical beat writers at mlb.com) something to write about on a regular basis that really isn't as interesting as they pretend.

Apr 04, 2011 9:32 AM on Closer Carousel
 
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Jesus, did somebody even read what I wrote before minusing me? I wrote a compliment? And apparently that's inappropriate/wrong? THAT'S the feature of BP that needs to be done away with.

Apr 03, 2011 7:34 AM on A New Delivery
 
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Dang. Good points, Richard. I hope you're wrong, and that ESPN is recognizing that there is a larger audience for just Christina's type of writing than they used to think there was. As an optimist, I am going to hope that hiring the sort of writers like CK will be the first effort at turning that battleship. Either way, BP's sort-of-loss is ESPN's gain, and their readers probably don't know what's about to hit them.

Apr 01, 2011 12:17 PM on A New Delivery
 
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Congrats, you've worked for it. For the record, I won't be canceling my subscription.

Apr 01, 2011 9:51 AM on A New Delivery
 
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I think he's making an obscure philosophical point that at this point in the season, the awards are more random than anything else. Only two things are certain in this world: Death, and the fact that Albert Pujols is older than he says he is.

Mar 31, 2011 10:01 AM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
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Makes sense. But not all players coming out of Salt Lake are zeroes. He certainly has a shot at the most PA's for AL rookies, and don't forget who gets to vote for this thing.

Mar 31, 2011 9:59 AM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
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A lot of people are picking Mark Trumbo as AL ROY (specially over at SI)...I'm surprised to not even see his name here, even as a token mention.

Mar 31, 2011 7:11 AM on Staff Picks for 2011
 
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RE: Granderson....how can you look past his horrendous career numbers vs. lefties? I don't believe the reports coming out that he's retooled his approach. The guy shouldn't be in the lineup against a left-hander...ever. 215/274/346 against lefties over 7 seasons. That's not just awful, that's a cut-able player.

 
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Seriously? That's brutal. Perpetual losing is a way of life? They need to drink summa that tiger blood.

Mar 28, 2011 7:38 PM on NL Pre-Season Hit List
 
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The A's are always at the top of BP's preseason hit lists. Didn't you know?

Mar 28, 2011 12:44 PM on AL Pre-Season Hit List
 
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"If you have suck, you gotta have luck." That really should be their 2011 slogan, instead of their current nonsense of "These are YOUR Astros."

Mar 28, 2011 12:43 PM on NL Pre-Season Hit List
 
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The only thing that makes me feel better about the Astros is that BP consistently under-projects their W/L record. I just don't see them finishing any worse than 15th. :P

Mar 28, 2011 6:47 AM on NL Pre-Season Hit List
 
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Are Zach and Drake related?

 
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Love that strip. It's inclusion on BP only heightens my respect.

 
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Better than screaming futilely at the sky, like Jenkins and Chass.

 
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I'm not used to reading 100% seriousness in your writing, Ken. It makes me uncomfortable. But I think you're right.

 
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McDonalds?

 
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Wouldn't it be great if there were a place on BP.com that displayed exactly what that fictitious, zero-warp, league-average player looks like in terms of everyday baseball statistics? If Chass' ilk could come to a web page and see .264-65-10-65-4 or 8W-4.20 ERA-6.50 K/9 actually defined as BP's league average player, perhaps it would put it in understandable context. As is, we have to take it on blind faith that such a fictional person exists (or doesn't, actually) but most of us don't know what his stats would be. The only argument against the hypothetical player right now is that he's transient or under-defined. www.homestarrunner.com has a link up front "click here if this is your first time!" BP could use something like that. "Click Here to Meet our League Average Players!". Perhaps some dynamic website whiz could even have it update based on the newest available historical stats every season, and identify the closest equivalent real-life player. That would be sweet. Great article, Steven.

 
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I wish I had dreams like this :(

 
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WAIT! Breaking news! This from Alden Gonzalez at mlb.com today: "Wallace, in case you haven't noticed, seems to be rounding into form at Osceola County Stadium, where he came into camp in the best shape of his life and in competition for a starting first-base job in the Major Leagues." See Jay, if you had known that Wallace was in the best shape of his life, you probably would have a little more faith. *rolling eyes*

Mar 18, 2011 8:28 AM on DisAstros in the Making
 
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Fun article.

Mar 18, 2011 7:58 AM on The Rule X Draft
 
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I guess I'll just have to cling to the dingleberry of a fact that the Astros have outperformed their win/loss projections every year for the last 3 or 4.

Mar 18, 2011 7:04 AM on DisAstros in the Making
 
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Thanks for destroying my only glimmer of hope that there will be something worth watching this season. Kidding. Thanks for the detailed reply.

Mar 18, 2011 5:35 AM on DisAstros in the Making
 
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I really got minused for this? Jeez.

Mar 17, 2011 10:27 AM on Manny Banuelos' Close-Up
 
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Somebody had to guess I'd weigh in on this. Before I jump in on what I disagree with and why, I'll say that I do agree with most of what's here, so I don't sound like a negative person. :) Moving on, I have a problem with statements like, "Wallace...confirm[ed] fears that the selectivity he showed at Arizona State had abandoned him." Wallace has 144 AB in the majors, all coming immediately after he was traded to his third organization in a one-year span. Baseball Prospectus writers are usually the first to warn against assumptions based on sample size and situation. Do his minor-league numbers (even with a generous discount for playing in the PCL) of 304/375/487 count for nothing? Pundits rated him a 5-star prospect for a reason, even while hedging over his below-average power for the position. KG in 2010: "Wallace is an offensive powerhouse with a quick, compact swing that should lead to .300 batting averages in the big leagues and the strength to hit 40 doubles annually with 20-25 home runs." So what's changed that everybody thinks he'll be a complete zero in the majors? It seems like perception of him did a 180 when he joined the Astros. Not his fault his new team sucks. Questions: Any insight on why JR Towles is lighting up AAA and Spring ball for the third year in a row, but seems to fall apart in the majors? Do the arrival of Lyles and the addition of Barmes' underrated defense at short impact the pitching projections much? My God, does Ed Wade understand the concept of OBP?

Mar 17, 2011 10:17 AM on DisAstros in the Making
 
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Kevin, is this guy REALLY as good as the Yankees faithful would have us believe? I've read so much similar stuff about guys named Chamberlain, Melky, Arodys, and others that I take all articles about Yankees prospects not named Jesus with a grain of salt. With the Banuelos hype machine in full swing, it begs the question...why hasn't this guy been named among those like Pineda, Scheppers, Feliz, Hellickson, Chapman, and Drabek? Color me skeptical at this point.

Mar 16, 2011 10:01 AM on Manny Banuelos' Close-Up
 
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I have SO missed the podcast this week.

 
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For the astute fan, the message being sent is, "We know these guys won't reach the peak of their skill until a few years down the road, so we want to be sure we own these guys for as long as possible during their prime." Everybody likes to see guys like Jason Heyward breaking camp, but does anybody really think it would have happened if Cox hadn't been in his last season and management wanted to reward him by giving him the best chance possible to make the playoffs? Chisenhall and Ackley won't give those two teams a realistic shot at the playoffs this season, so giving up a valuable season of arbitration eligibility in their prime at the expense of a few months in their rookie season doesn't really make sense on any level.

Mar 14, 2011 10:53 AM on Reds Plot a Repeat
 
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Mudslingers and propagandists like Chass deserve to have their bones picked. The assertion that modern metrics have no validity when compared with archaic ideas is as old and just as pointless as protestations in the 15th century that the world is indeed flat, no matter what evidence indicates.

 
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*who, not "how". Parents, teach your kids to proofread. Mine didn't, and look how I turned out. :(

Mar 10, 2011 12:31 PM on Premature Harpergasm
 
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My wife doesn't like watching baseball. She knows nothing about baseball. She can barely name a player on our hometown team (actually, she may not be able to do that). But she knows how Bryce Harper is. That alone tells me that this kid is WAY too media-over-saturated, and I'm sick of him already. Good article though.

Mar 10, 2011 12:29 PM on Premature Harpergasm
 
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Love the graphics. Adds a lot to an already useful premise.

Mar 10, 2011 8:53 AM on New York Yankees
 
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Seriously? If my parents named me Covelli Crisp, I'd STILL blame them.

Mar 10, 2011 6:16 AM on What's In A Name?
 
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Kila's a guy I've got pegged to reach at least 8 rounds on, considering where he's ranked. Can't risk him winding up on somebody else's roster.

Mar 09, 2011 6:01 AM on Draft Day Favorites
 
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Except that the movie actually had a somewhat linear plot, which just confused me.

Mar 09, 2011 5:55 AM on Vogon Poetry
 
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Damn it, Larry. Vogon poetry always makes me scream aloud and writhe in pain. And since I was at work when I read this, I hold Baseball Prospectus responsible for finding me a new career.

Mar 08, 2011 11:45 AM on Vogon Poetry
 
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And yet the Red Sox finished 3rd last season and only have 2 world series wins in the last 90 years. And yet the Yankees have won 1 world series in the past 11 years and 5 in the past 30. And 4 of those were with majority home-grown players, not high-dollar signees. The facts argue your point. In that same 30 years, we've seen champions from Oakland, Kansas City, Arizona, Minnesota, Florida, Cincinnati, Toronto, etc with appearances by Tampa, Cleveland and so on. Player salaries aren't preventing small markets from competing. Mismanagement is.

 
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I'd make a special list for guys like Coco Crisp and Milton Bradley. I would title that category, "What Were Their Parents Thinking?"

Mar 08, 2011 6:10 AM on What's In A Name?
 
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Why not just sign Bengie Molina to a 1-year contract? He's available, has a better bat than Flores OR Towles, and won't cost them a small part of their futre.

 
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Yes, but for what price? Decent-hitting, decent-fielding catchers still under club control don't come at a zero price. Would the Astros be willing to even give up an average low-A pitcher at this point? Can they afford it, since contention at the big league level is a pipe dream anyway? Can I ask another rhetorical question? Yes.

 
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"Further, he was the sole slugging righty in a lineup so dominated by lefties that if they won the World Series, Fox news wouldn’t cover them." LOL. I'm a self-proclaimed right-wing nutjob, and even I found that hilarious.

 
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This is a great feature. Finally - a quantitative way to view injuries! One suggestion/favor to ask: Could the formatting of these articles be changed to help the eye jump around easier? It's pretty linear...perhaps more emphasis on subheadings? Serious nitpick, because I enjoyed the article.

Mar 07, 2011 1:43 PM on Boston Red Sox
 
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Colvin was beyond awful after the break last season, posting 246/318/469. That's even bad enough to play middle infield for the Astros. Colvin's a career 277/316/465 hitter in the minor leagues (4 seasons). The idea that Colvin is a good hitter is a fiction created by desperate Cubs fans unfairly wowed by his hot start in the first two months of 2010. As is so often the case, once the league adjusted, there's nothing special about him except as a more-or-less useful fourth outfielder on a second division club.

Mar 07, 2011 12:36 PM on Wait Till This Year?
 
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Do me a favor and forward this to Ed Wade. Please?

 
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In the style of the Dog Owner's User Manual & Troubleshooting Guide, preferably.

Mar 04, 2011 1:48 PM on Missing the Meniscus
 
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First the Haikus, and now this. These days, Baseball Prospectus is channeling genius.

Mar 03, 2011 1:20 PM on Finding Julio Teheran
 
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Everything I could do to not bust out laughing in my cubicle over Adam's email.

 
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Don't swear.

 
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New Podcast should be In Haiku format as well. Oh yes, how unique! After ten minutes, It would get extremely old. My brain would 'asplode.

 
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http://www.ehow.com/how_3336_write-haiku.html There was no dang way I could fit that link into five-seven-five form

 
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Astros make me cry With yearly futility OBP still sucks.

 
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All in fun fun fun fun fun fun fun fun fun fun don't be sensitive :)

 
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Haikus do not rhyme K G's finest work ever Uncultured dumb butt

 
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"For me, though, they’ve always complemented each other:" And yes to this as well. Your last paragraph pretty much sums up my feelings about what I like to read.

Mar 01, 2011 1:06 PM on It Happens Every Spring
 
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"There are fewer people writing about a given subject, and much less repetition." And THAT is why I get my good baseball writing from BP, and my headline stories from Sports Illustrated, and completely ignore everything else. Kids being born after 2000 are going to be known as the "Oversaturation Generation."

Mar 01, 2011 1:05 PM on It Happens Every Spring
 
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Can we have your top 700? I don't think you're putting in enough work on this already.

 
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Chris Burke. 10th pick, $2.25MM signing bonus in 2001, yeesh.

 
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You think that based on what?

 
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Somebody should tell Ed Wade that this isn't golf. Low score doesn't win.

Feb 28, 2011 8:35 AM on Adaptation and Reaction
 
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"Last year, the Astros ranked 85th all time out of more than 1400 teams in the Retroshheet database in OBP" I railed against this in detail back in December, when I was decrying the signings of Barmes and Hall. Is it me, or could the Astros be a better club if they'd quit compounding their biggest deficiencies?

Feb 27, 2011 3:38 PM on Adaptation and Reaction
 
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Glad you're back John, I really like your writing. I need to take exception with one statement: "In fact, a case can be made that the Red Sox are the only team in the major leagues who have a better club than the Phillies." I just don't see that the case is there at all C: PHI = BOS 1B: PHI = BOS (until proven otherwise) 2B: PHI > BOS SS: PHI > BOS 3B: PHI < BOS LF: PHI < BOS CF: PHI > BOS RF: PHI < BOS (unless Drew gets hurt and Brown is a whiz) Rotation: PHI > BOS if you compare 1 to 1 and 2 to 2 and so on. Bullpen: PHI = BOS So counting the Bullpen as "one guy", that's 14 positions, and the Phillies have the superior player at 8-10 of them, including all 5 starters. I just don't think the comparison is even close. Sure the Sox gained A-Gonz and Crawford. But they also lost V-Mart and Beltre. That's not a giant leap forward, it's a tiptoe.

 
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Fond memories of the guy who suffered through my first attempts at mismanaging a Fantasy Baseball team. I didn't trade him after winning my first championship and held him for years. We go way back.

 
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Dang, I need to print this and put it on the wall of my cubicle, to help me remember that there are things worth putting up with work for.

 
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The interview with Emma was really interesting...it seemed more a look at a bizarre baseball subculture than the article did, and cleared up some of my misgivings. I'm still not thrilled the content was included on Baseball Prospectus, but this interview comes across a lot more clearly than the article did.

 
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There was recently an article here about how Brett Gardner's 2010 is unsustainable based on his ratios, career info, etc. Talk about a player who will break your heart. Gardner overplayed his abilities last season.

Feb 17, 2011 1:19 PM on A Dee Gordon PSA
 
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This is a very cool article. Well done.

 
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So Longoria is going this way? 2008: 5.0 WARP 2009: 7.7 WARP 2010: 8.2 WARP 2011: 4.6 WARP ??? So he's going to have the worst year of his career during his age 24 season, and about half what he posted last year?

 
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Yes. But they were worse offensively last year, and they won way more games than is projected here. That and BP's annual under-projecting their W/L record are my points.

Feb 17, 2011 9:05 AM on October 20-November 2
 
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On an unrelated note, those are really ugly OBP projections. Dang guys, take a walk once in a while!

Feb 17, 2011 7:07 AM on October 20-November 2
 
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Oh man, my brain just doesn't agree with this record at all. Sure they can't hit, but they probably CAN hit better than 2010. And last I checked, the pitching staff was one of the best (maybe it was the best, though I'm too lazy to look it up) after the All-Star Break last season. I can see them finishing fourth or fifth, but with the Pirate's embarrassing joke of a pitching staff, I don't see any scenario in which the Astros finish sixth. I take comfort in the fact that BP has under-projected the Astros for several years running now.

Feb 17, 2011 7:06 AM on October 20-November 2
 
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I really liked your last question. It's exactly the type of question some snotty person was likely to ask in the Comments section. Good article.

Feb 17, 2011 7:03 AM on A Dee Gordon PSA
 
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What? No Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles? Yeah, I know. :(

 
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Aim to please, and sometimes you shit your mark.

 
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Agreed. I'm accused of making "straw man" arguments. Well, I say that labeling dissenters as homphobes is a "cowardly lion" argument. They don't use logic to defend their position. They just insult people and try to put them on the defensive by giving them an unearned label that carries extreme negative connotations. You see this a lot on political talk shows, and it's so obvious when you look for it. Well, I won't play that game.

Feb 16, 2011 3:50 PM on Slash Lines
 
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Wow, you totally misunderstood me, so I'll chose not to be annoyed. I wasn't contradicting you, I was building on what you said (though I agree with ostrojw1....my first read-through of your post led me to believe you were making EXACTLY that claim). Read through the comments, the term homophobe appears at least 20 times, and in most cases it's somebody insisting that those of us who object to this article are homophobic. I certainly never said in my post that YOU were the one doing the name-calling, if you reread what I wrote. So...yeah.

Feb 16, 2011 3:45 PM on Slash Lines
 
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Good grief, that was supposed to be "hit". Spelling fail.

 
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Trying to figure out the math on this. In 314 AB, Teahen hits 7 HR with a .406 SLG% In 317 AB, Morel hits 14 HR with a .391 SLG% Insert Scooby Doo 'confused question' sound: Arooow? Does Teahen shit so many double and triples that it boosts his SLG% beyond Morel's twice as many homers, plus whatever XBH he gets besides? Am I reading the chart wrong?

 
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So what's your take? How are they going to do? I have them predicted at 5th in the division, and have angered a Cubs fan cousin of mine in the process.

 
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This is a really great article, and the useful images add so much more to the analysis than can be done with words. Nice work, Mike.

Feb 16, 2011 9:25 AM on The Real Strike Zone
 
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It's so easy to forget that Young is as young as he is. Seems like he's been around a long time.

 
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One can protest an article containing references to sex (gay or not) without being a homophobe. "Homophobe" is a word that is thrown around almost as irresponsibly as "racist". From an online dictionary, homophobe is defined as, "a person who fears or hates homosexuals and homosexuality." One can object to reading about this type of material without fearing or hating homosexuals. There are plenty of people (most people, I would think, though you wouldn't know it by reading internet message boards) who are disapproving of or disgusted by heterosexual content and pornography who are not "heterophobes." The use of the term homophobe in this context is extremely misplaced and irresponsible, and it's unfair to those of us object to this article.

Feb 16, 2011 6:46 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Yes! Go Astros! :P

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

They added the disclaimers way after it was posted.

Feb 15, 2011 9:02 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

PS I meant to say I enjoyed this exercise.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Jay, has anyone written about the collected WARP difference of Adrian Gonzalez+Carl Crawford over Adrian Beltre+Victor Martinez? I suspect it's not as big an upgrade as the media would have us believe. That said, I'm not sure anybody except the Jays had a truly spectacular offseason in the AL, though I would argue for the White Sox to be 3rd. Did they lose anything of value?

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

If you wanted to stretch the bounds of "player", you could include Bartman. After all, he did catch a fly ball in the majors once...

Feb 14, 2011 7:31 AM on Baseball's Superheroes
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 6

Tell yourself whatever you want, you're still wrong.

Feb 14, 2011 6:33 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Holy dang...it took 300ish comments. But this is the best one in the thread. Well-played.

Feb 13, 2011 3:36 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 6

This--along with all the other "homophobe suspicions" like it--is the most cop-out response in this thread. Don't like what somebody is saying? Attack them! Attack! No evidence here backs up your statement except A) there is some homosexual innuendos in the article, and B) people don't like it. Is it possible that MAYBE those of us that dislike this article AREN'T homophobes? Maybe we either don't like the article itself? Maybe we think this adds no value? Maybe we think the risk factor of publishing it puts BP in a bad light? Maybe we just think it sucks (I don't)? Give me a break. Stop applying labels, or at least provide some evidence for your default gut-reaction response. Buncha close-minded...label-applying...adjective-defying..... I just don't have the words for how ridiculous it sounds to make a sweeping claim that everybody opposed to this article is a homophobe. I didn't vote for Obama. I guess I'm a racist too. Charged, tried, GUILTY. Jeez.

Feb 13, 2011 3:34 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 7

I'm disappointed that some of the pages appear to be pink and some appear to be orange. I will be cancelling my subscription over this all-important faux pas, then spend the rest of my life protesting the advertisement of books with multi-colored pages.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Please exclude me from those types. It hurts my feelings.

Feb 12, 2011 2:30 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 2

Gotcha. Know what's funny? Since I answered you last, someone has gone back and "minused" every single one of my posts in this thread. I think you have some good points, and I agree (as I did above) that some people posting here are going way overboard or crossing the line even more than I feel the article did. So, I've made my points and don't really have more to add. This is my last post unless somebody has something new/interesting to offer.

Feb 12, 2011 2:28 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

All very good points, and if you graze my comments you'll see that none of my objections were over the homosexual innuendos in the article. So I really can't answer that part. "beyond telling the BP denizens that the current plus/minus system is poorly thought out/executed" Yes. I will say that there is (in my mind) a huge chasm of difference between interviewing a knowledgeable person about the subject of sexuality in the clubhouse and exploring smutty homosexual fanfic by nobodies on the internet. The two have absolutely nothing to do with each other, because it becomes a question of context. The former adds an insight into the workings of a baseball clubhouse. The latter provides what value? I can't see any.

Feb 12, 2011 2:12 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Jay, I don't agree, though I wish I did. I try to keep a rational tone when I disagree with an article (or somebody posting), yet whenever I go against the prevailing wind, I invariably get slammed. I do regret the "trash" remark in my very first post up top and would take it back if I could. With that in mind almost since I clicked submit, I've paid attention to my tone since. But I don't normally throw verbiage that harsh around, and I've noticed that tone doesn't matter - if you aren't in the majority you usually get panned. That's just the nature of message boards and +/- systems, I think. Long and short, what you describe has just not been my experience here for the past 2+ years.

Feb 12, 2011 2:05 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -2

R.A., you're only seeing what you want to see. If it were a vocal minority, then my comments above would all be so "minused" that they'd never see the light of day. As it is, most are approaching double digit "pluses". I know from experience (as do you) that all it takes is to say one thing slightly against the author to get the hell "minused" out of you. Since that didn't happen, I think it's pretty clear evidence that a large portion of BP's readership found issues with this article, one way or another.

Feb 12, 2011 12:31 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

"Honestly, I doubt this would have caused this much controversy if it were about players having sex with women." For my part, you are utterly wrong.

Feb 12, 2011 12:28 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -4

Oh god, that's all this conversation needed...that reference. I found it interesting discussion, and now I want to throw up. Jerk.

Feb 12, 2011 6:11 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

YES. That's more like it.

Feb 11, 2011 4:23 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -2

THIS. Exactly my sentiments. I have as perverse a sense of humor as any, but this article was like my wife slapping me in the face with a wet trout as soon as I came home from work with flowers. If that made sense to you, you know what I mean.

Feb 11, 2011 3:13 PM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

I've noticed most people are black-or-white types. I'm a "gray area" guy. I appreciate what the article has to offer, while questioning the decision to publish it here. The "slay the dragon!" comments in this thread bother me more than anything you wrote in the article. Meanwhile, I am glad you're contributing to the site, and look forward to more.

Feb 11, 2011 10:14 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 6

Curious - which editor comments are you referring to? I think they've been pretty good about answering those of us that disagree with the decision, without being petty, aggressive, or defensive. We can disagree without it going beyond that. Just because you and I think this article crosses the line doesn't mean there's a systemic problem around here.

Feb 11, 2011 9:05 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

Logic prevails again!

Feb 11, 2011 8:56 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

That doesn't surprise me, and solidarity is to be applauded. I'm just surprised that the decision to publish was made at all. I hesitate to ask, but would this article have been even considered if it had been written by an unknown author? Unfair question, perhaps, but I can't help but wonder.

Feb 11, 2011 8:56 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I already said it doesn't offend me. What I said was it's tasteless and pointless. There's no basis for your speculation.

Feb 11, 2011 8:53 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

It's the thought that counts, man! I'm looking forward to reading more of Emma's work...on different subjects. :)

Feb 11, 2011 7:51 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

Jay, please see my reply to dianagram above. I'm no statistician, and most of Colin and Matt's stuff is way over my poor engineering head. One of my favorite writers is Ken, who brings a skewed angle to this site, and I'm excited about the Weizenball or wahtever it is, for the sheer fun-ness of it all. I just think this one completely crosses the line and I'm surprised the editorial staff doesn't recognize that a large portion of your readership will agree with me.

Feb 11, 2011 7:44 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 11

I don't see the point in "minusing" me for my opinion on this. The article doesn't OFFEND me from some moral standpoint, but I do find it completely tasteless, pointless, and completely out of character for this site. I also understand why some people think it's funny - I just don't agree that this is the place for it. To clarify, I have no objection with Emma's writing, but rather the fact that somebody felt the need to present this topic at all. Does it add any value? I say no. Does it run the risk of offending a significant portion of BP's readership? You can't honestly say that it doesn't, and the comments here bear that out (and probably will for the rest of today and parts of tomorrow). Given that risk, I don't understand why the editorial staff thought this article was worth it. I'm really disappointed that Emma's debut wasn't on a topic that most of us pay to read about, rather than a pop-cultury look at baseball smut.

Feb 11, 2011 7:41 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 9

South American mixed drink - guava juice mixed with fine-grit sand, with a touch of everclear and a twist of irony.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

Nothing before 1990 was worth remembering.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

This is complete trash. I expected better from a semi-well-known writer, and I really expected better from Baseball Prospectus. Publishing this was a complete lapse in judgment, and I'm really disappointed. What the HELL is the point of even researching this subject, much less thinking we want to read about it??

Feb 11, 2011 6:45 AM on Slash Lines
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I understand that part, but if players with extensive stats aren't being regressed somehow, and it's only the ones with little information to go on, how does one explain odd projections like Longoria, Zimmerman, Morales, etc? (I can't buy the fact that Morales' projection is due to his broken leg, because it doesn't make sense that that injury will impact future performance so much) Somehow, elite players are having their stats grabbed by the neck, throttled, then drug back to the pack. Similiarly, some crummy players are being given the ol' leg up to reach higher heights than they could with no assistance. I have no idea WHY this is happening...I'll leave that to smart guys like you and Colin. But my engineering brain would like it explained or corrected for the sake of sanity.

Feb 09, 2011 6:27 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Side note: If you could post those numbers as an Astros SS for the next 3 years, you're already an improvement on whatever they've had.

Feb 08, 2011 10:06 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I like the Duchscherer signing better.

Feb 08, 2011 9:56 AM on Vladimir Guerrero
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

"with Carlos Pena gone and Casey Kotchman as his main competition" helpful link

Feb 08, 2011 9:53 AM on The Next Jose Bautista
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Great article, but would have loved to see you explore the Brandon Wood possibility, if only because I've wasted so many draft picks and blew so many trades on him through the last few fantasy seasons.

Feb 08, 2011 9:52 AM on The Next Jose Bautista
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 2

Best post in this thread. Very true.

Feb 08, 2011 9:29 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

This is along the lines I was thinking too. My other general questions include: --Does PECOTA take into account why a player missed time? If guy misses for a 50-game PED or a freak home-run celebration leg fracture, that's not a "time missed" that will affect his projected production in real life, yet I suspect PECOTA looks at it as if all missed time were created equal. Thus, Morales' ridiculously low projection. Would that there was an injury database to quantify injury types and cross-reference them to PECOTA algorithms. --Is PECOTA giving TOO much weight to missed time? "Health is a skill" is a cliché, but injuries aren't predictable. Saying, "Hamilton/Weeks/Kinsler missed time for various (different) injuries over the past 3 seasons means the most likely outcome is that he will miss time for another injury in 2011" just doesn't make logical sense. If they had a weak joint and repeatedly suffer the same injury over and over, then fine. But that isn't too common a situation overall, and I don't think it's a very strong thing to base a projection on. --Is PECOTA regressing TOO far to the mean? Especially applies if you are using an MLB mean as tbwhite suggests, but also true if using a player mean. Longoria (example) historically is far better than his projection. Longoria is also entering his 'statistical prime' and has no history of significant injury. Nobody expects him to post career highs every year, but something is fishy about a projection that sees him only as an above-average 3B. --What's the deal with airline food and goofy WARP scores this year? I imagine this will be answered, so I'll leave it alone.

Feb 08, 2011 9:24 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

What I'd really like to see, and have no right to demand, is projections ONLY of major league stats, with projected playing time, etc. I know that's coming on the depth charts. It just looks like if I added all of those counting stats (MLB proj. only), they wouldn't even come close to the totals achieved by MLB overall last season. You and Joe are focusing on my speculation about Hamilton, but seem to be missing my larger point. Why do ALL of the numbers look so low across the board? Again, I really do appreciate the work that goes into this. I'm just trying to understand so that I don't unfairly criticize.

Feb 08, 2011 6:33 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I understand your argument, I just don't agree. His career stats indicate that given approximately 500 AB (not PA), he is a 30 home-run hitter. This also ignores the fact that he was good for 156 games just 2 seasons ago, so the injury angle is overplayed. If he's averaged 30/HR per 500 AB/PA over his career in the majors, why should his MEAN be 23? Shouldn't his mean be closer to 30, with a 90th percentile that reflects his talent level over 600/700 AB? 40? 45?

Feb 07, 2011 3:30 PM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I don't know about a reboot, but I think giving the most recent season/s the most weight makes sense.

Feb 07, 2011 2:32 PM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 5

Trying to post this without sounding critical...because I admire what you are able to accomplish with PECOTA. But...for the 3rd year running, these projections seem absurdly low and inconsistent. Some of them defy explanation. Example: Evan Longoria: 82/25/84 263/348/474 (2011 PECOTA) Evan Longoria: 88/27/101 283/361/507 (3-Year Average) Mike Stanton: 76/32/87 0.247/0.328/0.496 (2011 PECOTA) How can a guy with a 3-year track record of superstar stats be projected that low, while a sophomore with 1/2 of a MLB season and minor league translations be projected so well? I have no argument with Stanton's projection, but Longoria's looks ridiculous in comparison. A few more that jumped out at me: 85/23/79 for Zimmerman? 72/23/77 for Hamilton? 76/18/62 for K Morales? 62/17/58 for Weeks? I understand that PECOTA isn't a "prediction" system, it's a "projection" system, based on the probable result of a mathematical simulation. But this year, it just doesn't pass the smell test at all! I don't know the math, but is it possible PECOTA is forcing a regression to the mean TOO much?

Feb 07, 2011 2:00 PM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Again....Berkman....always good for a non-cliché quote.

Feb 07, 2011 10:35 AM on January 31-February 6
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -9

Horribly hilarious. I don't know if I should "plus" or "minus".

Feb 07, 2011 9:03 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Or the brothers Upton. My fantasy outfield is screwed! :)

Feb 07, 2011 6:25 AM on They're Here!
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 4

This article makes me happy. Pointless frivolity adds much to a reputable research/media outlet.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Not me, I'm still betting on the guy.

Feb 05, 2011 3:01 PM on Dead to Me
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

You don't mention Buchholz' .266 BABIP (down from career .285) and his subsequent 4.29 SIERA. I'm not touching that either.

Feb 04, 2011 6:10 AM on Dead to Me
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Pat, oh Pat. I never draft him, am in a 10-player keeper league (even HE should be kept!), and yet somehow he has ended up on my team 5 years out of 6, and helped me limp into the playoffs on several occasions. Don't snub a useful piece when you really need it.

Feb 04, 2011 6:04 AM on Dead to Me
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Not that I think your premise is without merit, but how come every time the Yankees do something inexplicable that gets criticized by the media, people suggest that Cashman is being overruled or ignored? (I know you were postulating, not asserting, but I read that a lot.) It is entirely possible that Cashman really is no better than, say, Ed Wade (a favorite target of BP authors). So the guy can spend a half-billion dollars on superstars well...bully for him. I'm not sure any of his other moves beyond letting Cano develop have been any thing that proves him to be an excellent GM. Seems to me that his actions don't justify the hype. Unless he keeps getting overruled. :)

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

Glad I re-upped my subscriptions. Gawd, how am I going to get any work done during the day now?

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

"according to the soon-to-be-supplanted implementation of WARP available on our website" I must have missed an announcement somewhere.

Feb 01, 2011 11:39 AM on Springer Springs Eternal
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Theres a lot of people who wonder why one would date somebody west of the Bronx too. :)

Jan 31, 2011 4:56 PM on January 24-30
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I meant to say WHEN he retires. Dude can still hit, and he can probably run better than the Astros' current left fielder.

Jan 31, 2011 12:54 PM on January 24-30
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I like them until I compare their pitching to the other three teams in the division. Rangers come up 4th in that category. Should be an exciting division to watch.

Jan 31, 2011 10:28 AM on January 24-30
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

Berkman should retire and be an analyst. He's dead on about the Rangers and Beltre, but he's going to get shredded for saying it as a player.

Jan 31, 2011 6:56 AM on January 24-30
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 6

"Here's this column's proposition #1 for you: just when you believe it's safe to call someone a rubber arm is when you should book them a ticket to retirement." ... "And if you get fatigued from pulling, don't worry; I'll take over for you. It's not a problem for me. You see, I don't get tired--I have a rubber arm." Should we read between the lines? Are you trying to tell us something about your career?

Jan 31, 2011 6:47 AM on Shirley a New Beginning
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Well in that case, I'm glad they're not MY team.

Jan 28, 2011 12:21 PM on Insurance Policies
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

The Dodgers' left field mess makes me want to see some research on the subject of junky major-leaguers vs. AAA replacements. Is a Thames/Gibbons combo really better than a combination of "organizational soldiers" like Trent Oeltjan and Michael Restovich? The possible slight drop in production compared to "Thabbons" could be offset by the low cost of employing older AAA guys. There's always the unlikely chance that one of those guys steps up and provides better than expected production. But with MLB retreads you already know what flavor of mediocrity you're going to get. At the least, doesn't it make sense for a cash-strapped franchise like the Dodgers to play AAA minimum-wage guys who have at least proved themselves competent in the minors instead of expensive garbage that's been bouncing around the majors for years and serving only replacement-level value (or worse)? Gibbons and Thames had a combined WARP of 1.4 last season. Will the younger guys be so much worse as to make a big negative impact on the season compared to that? What's the worst that can happen? The AAAA guys become arb. eligible, get cut, and wind up as somebody else's Jay Gibbons? Meanwhile, the Dodgers will have restocked the minor leagues with cheap filler and the cycle can repeat until they can afford a real baseball player. Obviously, fans want superstars. But if a team is going to fill a position with Spackle, why not use the cheaper stuff?

Jan 28, 2011 10:34 AM on Insurance Policies
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 2

Wow

Jan 28, 2011 6:32 AM on National BPuzzle Day
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 2

Guys, it took me a couple years to "discover" your podcast. Now I feel like any of your subscribers that don't listen to it regularly are missing a really significant addition to what you offer. Nice job.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 2

Christina, another take on Wandy: If he comes close to repeating his 2009 and last half of 2010, his value in the market is (probably) higher than what they are paying him. They would be underpaying a high-K lefty who is under control for 4 years. If the Astros do the right thing and flip him for lots of 'something elses' in the relatively near future, this contract could increase his value to a trade partner far beyond what the Astros would get if they traded him as a nice rental starter for a half a season. In the meantime, they have one of the better lefty starters around that nobody is talking about, for as long as they want him. There's been little the Astros have done in the past five years to make me say, "Nice move," but I do like this contract.

Jan 27, 2011 6:49 AM on I Want Wandy
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

San Antonio/Austin

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 8

A format like this is the only case where "Best Prospect" and "Houston Astros" can show up together twice in the same lines.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Goodbye, Lastings Milledge's potential.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

"Holds" may be the dumbest stat in baseball.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Anybody else think it's funny that JJ Hardy is getting $6 million and Kendry Morales is getting $3 million? This system of compensation is screwy.

Jan 19, 2011 11:00 AM on Arbitration Avoidance
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 4

Mixed feelings here. A valid point, but I like to compare apples to apples. So if one author uses SIERA to make a point, and another uses FIP to make a different point, it's next to impossible for me to decide which is the stronger point because the metrics themselves don't agree. So I can see it both ways. It's not really a big issue. Perhaps a cursory mention of SIERA in a chart, even if FIP is being discussed, just to give a point of reference for those of us that are more familiar with BP metrics would be enough.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

No criticism intended. Good article. I had forgotten McGee existed.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Their loss. The team should be interesting to watch, and they might miss out on Jordan Zimmermann's breakthrough.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Has there been any mention by Rays insiders on who will have the job, or is this conjecture based numbers alone? Would be nice to see SIERA instead of FIP, and BP's prospect lists instead of BA's. But that's me splitting hairs.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Quality article, Craig. Thanks for the visuals...they add a lot to the content. Would love to see even more, site-wide.

Jan 18, 2011 10:07 AM on Shifting On Carlos Pena
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 3

Let's not act like the Cubs were brimming with elite prospects. Quite the opposite. KG's summary of their system says, "Impact talent? Not really. Depth? You betcha." This wasn't a package that could land a Halladay, and none of the players they gave up are likely to be more than solid-ish everyday players, if that....back of rotation, back of lineup type guys if they even make the show. This move for the Cubs was smart. They have depth of average talent in the minors, and so they dealt from that strength to acquire a quality starter under their control for several years. That the potential exists to turn that same starter into minor leaguers of better quality as he gets closer to Free Agency is only a bonus that helps their rotation in the short-term, and their farm system in the long-term (maybe). But let's not pretend that the Cubs gave away future All-Stars here, because they just didn't.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Christina, I cry every time the Astros are mentioned in one of your pieces.

Jan 12, 2011 6:18 AM on NL Central Roundup
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Hilariously, somebody minused me for the "failure of grammar" post. I think somebody doesn't like me.

Jan 06, 2011 2:19 PM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

I meant to say 90's and early 00's. Curse me for not proofreading.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Bill, I agree with your 2nd paragraph in principle, but how were the 80's and early 90's not an era where the first baseman's job was to hit the snot out of the ball, defense be darned? Arbitrarily looking at the 1994 season, prominent 1B's include Palmeiro, Cecil Fielder, Fred McGriff, Frank Thomas, Mo Vaughn, Tino Martines, and Andres Galarraga in addition to Bagwell. I don't have their defensive stats on hand, but that's not a list that passes the smell test as being known for defensive wizardry. Bagwell excelled at a skill (defense) that nobody even had metrics for at the time he played, and that's not something that can be discounted. Learning to play excellent defense is not something he needed to do to become a great ballplayer, but he did anyway and it should be recognized in this discussion.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 13

Are you not skeptical of the rotation at all? Beckett has only put up "ace" numbers for 2-3 seasons during his career, Lackey only once, and Buchholz's 4.29 SIERA and .265 BABIP (compared to career .292) indicate huge regression? Somebody in this week's podcast raises those flags. Behind Lester, there's a lot of finger crossing that will be going on to make all that potential pan out, I think.

Jan 06, 2011 11:09 AM on Red Sox Regnant?
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

That's nothing but a failure of grammar, not any insidious personal issue, I assure you.

Jan 06, 2011 10:22 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

That's a very good point. Here's the irony of all this. I personally WOULD vote for McGwire. I was trying to answer the original question about why some people don't think he makes the hall on merit, from what I've read. People act like I called the dude the antichrist or something.

Jan 06, 2011 9:47 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

THIS is the smartest comment in this thread. I don't think I said anything mean, spiteful, arrogant, or insulting in any of my comments. Yet my collective "rating" is somewhere around -1,928,149,871,982,759,898,175 just because people disagree with some points I'm trying to raise. "minusing" also encourages piling on...people who don't read the entire post think it's crap because others have disagreed. It's absurd. What's funny is somebody actually -1'd you for YOUR comment here before I read it.

Jan 06, 2011 9:40 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

"I'm not insinuating anything about Alomar, I'm just asking the question" - from my original post you replied to. I have no idea whether Alomar took PED's, nor do I care. I'm pointing out the double standard of accusing Bagwell (and others who have no evidence against them) while voting Alomar into the Hall in a landslide.

Jan 06, 2011 9:38 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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My God, Joe you just didn't read anything I've written. I DON"T think there's any evidence that Bagwell juiced. But that's the argument most people are making for keeping him out of the hall of fame. My POINT is that there's no evidence that Alomar juiced EITHER, but he played during the peak of the steroid era. So how is making assumptions about Bagwell solely on his production during the steroid era and association with Caminiti OK, while it's NOT okay to make the same assumptions about Alomar? That's the double-standard I'm talking about. Damn, read before replying! You and I are saying the same things!!!

Jan 06, 2011 8:42 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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Joe, I DO believe that PED's improve a player's performance in a number of ways, in power (hitting and pitching) but most appreciatively in healing recovery, physical health (not including aftereffects later in life), and strength and endurance. So really, your first paragraph has nothing to do with what I was saying at all. Not all the benefits of PED's will show up in home run or strikeout numbers (see Grimsley, Jeremy Giambi, Brian Roberts, etc). With the circumstantial "evidence" surrounding Bagwell just because he played with Caminiti, is it a stretch to say that Alomar, who played during the same period and had no more or less evidence against him than Bagwell does, and whose peak years coincided with the heyday of the steroid era, MAY have been a user as well? You're looking for an argument where I'm not making one. Steroids are bad. Steroids help players in various ways. My point is home runs don't indicate who took what, and Alomar's career was SMACK in the middle of the worst of the controversy, so whose to say he wasn't a user also? And nobody is mentioning it.

Jan 06, 2011 7:27 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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Here's something else for people to minus me for: How come NOBODY's talking about how Alomar played during the steroids era and had his best years between 1995 and 2001, same as Bagwell, McGwire, and Palmeiro? I'm not insinuating anything about Alomar, I'm just asking the question: Do huge home run numbers really indicate who was or who wasn't taking PED's when there's little evidence otherwise? It's not like Jason Grimsley was a flamethrowing 350-game winner, after all. This smells like a double-standard to me, or at least hypocrisy.

Jan 05, 2011 4:09 PM on One Man's Ballot
 
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I said nothing like that at all. I said I valued players like Palmiero and Bagwell who do everything well over players who do only one thing well. I never implied, suggested, or said that I value players who aren't any good. Minus away, you're reading only what you want to read instead of what I actually am saying.

Jan 05, 2011 3:53 PM on One Man's Ballot
 
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OPS, SLG, HR, HR/AB, BB - All stats associated with power hitters. You do not mention ONE stat in any other category, and Gold Glove is a joke and you know it. He's a one-trick pony, period.

Jan 05, 2011 2:02 PM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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Where are you GETTING this nonsense you keep spouting off? Are you trying to come up with unprovable and ridiculous statements just to get a reaction? Because, well...it's working.

Jan 05, 2011 10:00 AM on Bagging on Bagwell
 
CRP13
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All it does is prove my point that he was a one-trick pony. Where does he stand in the other stats? Not as high. One skill does not a hall-of-famer make.

Jan 05, 2011 8:00 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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"but if you're the very best ever at that one thing, that's Hall worthy." When has that ever been the case, if the player excels at nothing else? Does Kenny Lofton have a real HOF case, since he's 15th all-time on the stolen base list? People can't look past the homers.

Jan 05, 2011 6:30 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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other WAR stats just don't agree.

Jan 05, 2011 6:20 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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My argument was intentionally constructed like a typical HOF voter, not a BP reader. Sorry if I wasn't more clear on that. My point is that every year, the same arguments come up for various players: He wasn't good enough for long enough, hurt too often, too many bad seasons (McGwire had more "average" seasons than Palmeiro did), blah blah blah. You can throw WARP around all you want, and I'll agree with you, but unfortunately only a handful of actual voters give a rat's patootie, and so the argument is sadly irrelevant. By today's standards, with today's voters, with today's arguments, Palmeiro has a better HOF case than McGwire does. Incidentally, WAR (sorry to drag in a competitor, BP!) rates Palmeiro higher than McGwire, with a 66 WAR to Mac's 61. I'm ignoring walks because it's a direct function of his being an extreme power hitter (one tool). Adam Dunn gets a lot of walks for the same reasons, but that doesn't make him a Hall-of-Famer. Actually, to this point in his career (age 30), Dunn has a stronger HOF case than McGwire did by that age (go check his stats) yet who has mentioned Dunn in the same sentence with Cooperstown? Also, Palmiero's career contact rate is 85%, compared to McGwire's 71%, meaning he was apt to take less walks because he was more likely to put a pitch outside the zone into play and didn't NEED to watch them all go by waiting for that meatball he could knock out. It seems to me that you're giving Palmiero credit for his Hits, but not the rest of what he's done, while McGwire is getting credit for his homers, but people are ignoring the fact that the rest of his game was no better than above-average for his position.

Jan 05, 2011 6:19 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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McGwire was a better slugger, but Palmeiro was a better baseball player. I don't see the reasoning for awarding a one-tool player with the Hall of Fame, when his numbers (HR aside) are borderline at best.

Jan 04, 2011 10:42 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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Probably very true, however how good a player might have been had he been healthy figures into the vote. Mark Prior should have been amazing, if only.....doesn't make him a Hall of Famer. That all being said, I'd vote for Larkin in a heartbeat if I had a vote.

Jan 04, 2011 10:40 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
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McGwire: 16 seasons, 1626 Hits, 1167 Runs, 583 HR, 1414 RBI, 12 SB, 263/394/588 Palmiero: 20 seasons, 3020 Hits, 1663 Runs, 569 HR, 1835 RBI, 97 SB, 288/371/515 The answer is sustained excellence. Palmiero was steadily elite for over ten years, while McGwire had ups and downs over a shorter career. His traditional numbers make him a borderline candidate at best. He has just too many seasons where he was a merely above-average slugging 1B, and not a HOF-bound one. His career before age 30 has more in common with Jack Cust than it does with the HOF 1B's. The fun thing is comparing those two guys to Bagwell, who had only 15 seasons. Bagwell: 15 seasons, 2314 hits, 1517 Runs, 449 HR, 1529 RBI, 202 SB, 297/408/540 Crazy to think what HE could have done with 20 seasons.

Jan 04, 2011 10:37 AM on One Man's Ballot
 
CRP13
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I've never seen so many "minuses" in a BP article.

Jan 04, 2011 10:11 AM on Bagging on Bagwell
 
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only 355 projected AB? That seems low, considering Ed Wade is trying to trade away Keppinger.

 
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I used to feel that way, but as the year went on, I found myself looking forward to OtB more and more. I pay for the cutting edge research, insight, and statistical analysis, but there is definitely a place for good baseball prose, news, and tidbits. I now find OtB the part of the site that balances the complicated number-crunching, and I'm not sure I'd change anything. Sure do like those scout quick-takes though.

Jan 01, 2011 7:23 AM on How About Some Ideas?
 
CRP13
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You can post links here. Post a few linking Bagwell to steroids. Go ahead, we'll wait. While you're at it, post a few questioning his character. Happy hunting.

Dec 31, 2010 3:43 PM on Bagging on Bagwell
 
CRP13
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You have so clearly lost your mind that you might as well abdicate your right to continue breathing.

Dec 31, 2010 3:41 PM on Bagging on Bagwell
 
CRP13
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25000 hits is a lot.

 
CRP13
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You guys need to read what he wrote and then read between the lines. His value will be determined by where he lands on the field. If he stays a shortstop, his stock will no doubt increase. But as you said, he's only 19, and a lot of people get fatter between ages 19 and 25. If he gets fat like most of us do, then a switch to OF or 1B substantially decreases his value, likely to 2 stars. Lets see what he does in the high minors against truly better competition before we judge KG's assessment. I bet if you look at the pitchers he's faced in the Venezuelan league so far, you'll see he hasn't been facing many or any elite arms, since most elite arms don't go to the V league. The only names I even recognize are Yorman Bazardo and Yusmiero Petit, both of whom sucked in the majors. Far to early to anoint him as a can't-miss prospect.

 
CRP13
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Hmm, I simply plugged the formula from the glossary into my trusty spreadsheet, not reading that it was for 2007. But hey, I'm certainly no expert and I'll defer. Thanks for the clarification. P.S. I've harped on this before, but the glossary is terrible...lots of circular references and old info. An updated glossary would be a great Christmas present to your readers.

Dec 21, 2010 6:06 AM on A Pitch for Joe Blanton
 
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The issue I have with this is the actual results argue with the theoretical ones. Throwing away Blanton's BABIP-induced bad luck in 2010, he averaged a 2.47 WARP from 2007 to 2009, while maintaining a BABIP right at .300, which is near league average. Over that same three-year period, that puts him in dead last (by WARP) in the list of pitchers in the table, even behind (snooze) Scott Baker. A 2.47 WARP pitcher is worth almost exactly $5M per season by MORP, or $3.5M less per year than Blanton's average salary for 2011 and 2012. From the pitchers above, the closest pitcher to a MORP of $8.5M is a guy somewhere between Jered Weaver and James Shields or Cole Hamels. Acquiring that guy is a completely different conversation than trying to trade for Joe BLANDon. If I were a GM in serious discussions to acquire Blanton, even taking his 2010 BABIP into consideration (and why should I, since his ugly ERA is a great talking point for my part!), I would still require the Phillies to eat at least $3.5M/year of his salary just to balance out his actual production with his annual salary. Or give them crappier prospects. This is no knock on SIERA - I believe in it, and it's a really useful predictive tool. But like they say in the funny papers - results don't lie, and for a 3-year period, Blanton pitched with a .300 BABIP and pitched like a $5 million dollar pitcher, and no better.

Dec 20, 2010 1:24 PM on A Pitch for Joe Blanton
 
CRP13
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Awful lot of assumptions in your statement.

 
CRP13
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Where does Brian Dopirak slot, now that the Astros signed him as a free agent?

 
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Yes, those. 120 IP of garbage pitching does drag down a pitching staff. Not cataclysmally, if the rest of the pitchers are good, but there's no argument you can make to show that Santana was good, above-average, or average during those seasons. Point being: the Twins were willing to put up with those growing pains, and the Astros weren't. How would the pick have looked if Santana hadn't learned that changeup? It's not like the Astros left him unprotected in full knowledge that he would suddenly figure out something that he'd never done before.

Dec 15, 2010 6:08 AM on Monday Ten-Pack
 
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That's well-stated, I just don't agree.

Dec 15, 2010 6:05 AM on Marvin Miller
 
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Spitballing here: The Astros had no 2B prospects worth a darn at the time DeShields was signed. When Berkman was traded at the end of July and they acquired Paredes, they now had two 2B prospects worth the rough equivalent of a darn. My suspicion is that Paredes goes to High-A and DeShields stays at 2B at a lower level, with the understanding that if Paredes pans out over the next year+, then they can move DeShields back to center fairly painlessly and have two talented young guys hitting the majors at the same time in positions that are difficult to fill. But if Paredes doesn't pan out, DeShields with the higher upside could be a well-above-average solution to a position that they've had a problem with since Biggio's 2005.

 
CRP13
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I work for a very large private business. I get rewarded for its success. A salary, benefits including insurance, and a really nice bonus that is dependent on the company's profits. The only risk I shoulder is if I don't do my job to my utmost ability, I have a long-shot chance at losing my job. However, if I do my job excellently and show my abilities better than those of my peers, I get rewarded in the form of recognition, promotion, salary compensation, and nice pats on the back from rich folk. I consider myself "public." How am I bearing all the risks and none of the profit? And how am I different from a major league baseball player? Only that playing a physical sport at an elite level is a much rarer skill set than that of a good mechanical engineer, and so baseball players are accordingly paid more. DAra...love the sarcasm. Don't love the spelling. Therefore, I conclude that you are also an engineer.

Dec 14, 2010 1:59 PM on Marvin Miller
 
CRP13
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You guys are making an awful lot of assumptions about me based on nothing except your own suspicions. How is that worse than anything Scott said? For the record, I don't watch Fox. I get my news from the Onion.

Dec 14, 2010 9:44 AM on December 6-12
 
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Kevin, how do you determine your star ratings? I should probably know this, but it seems you put players with more upside lower on the list if the guys above are closer to the majors, ala having Lyles over Foltynewicz or the fact that it sounds like Ovando has 5-star potential. Do you have an uncertainty factor built in? Also...Foltynewicz, Bushue, Bogusevic, Melancon, Kvasnicka, Paredes, Altuve...does any farm system have more players with names guaranteed to trip up a TV color commentator?

 
CRP13
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Sigh. Where would Koby Clemens land on your list? I know he has no real future without something breaking his way, but one has to be curious.

 
CRP13
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this post is utterly and completely unnecessary.

Dec 13, 2010 11:58 AM on Marvin Miller
 
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The irony here is all the ballplayers blasting Jan Brewer and President Bush over their stances on illegal immigration. Nobody criticized them for expressing that opinion. But questioning this president is akin to blasphemy in the media, and Scott's reputation will now probably be ruined beyond what he deserves for one ill-advised answer. The political opinion of one dumb jock or hollywood partygoer makes no difference to me. He should be allowed to express it same as the ballplayers who lean to the left have been allowed.

Dec 13, 2010 11:57 AM on December 6-12
 
CRP13
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World War Eleven? Dang, I must have missed that one. Seriously good point with the 2nd sentence.

Dec 13, 2010 11:01 AM on Marvin Miller
 
CRP13
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Market Capitalism was inducted to the HoF in 1998.

Dec 13, 2010 11:00 AM on Marvin Miller
 
CRP13
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In his first four seasons in the minors, Santana racked up an ERA of 4.79 in 333 innings, without ever cracking High-A. Obviously people knew he had some potential, since the Marlins grabbed him with the first pick and the Twins immediately traded to get him. After watching Santana suck for four seasons, the Astros probably thought he didn't have what it took to realize his potential - and who could really blame them at the time? They knew the guy better than anybody. So regardless of how Santana actually turned out (after two terrible years dragging down the Twins' pitching staff in which he averaged around 5.00 ERA), the Astros move was defensible at the time. Bad luck, that's all, and I don't think there's a lesson to be learned there about which players turn out to be stars and which never make it out of the minors for good.

Dec 13, 2010 9:49 AM on Monday Ten-Pack
 
CRP13
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Agree, and (don't laugh) you could probably put the Astros up there as well. And before anybody minuses me, go look at their 2010 stats.

Dec 10, 2010 6:44 AM on Marcum Up
 
CRP13
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Congrats guys, well done.

Dec 09, 2010 9:41 AM on Joining the Club
 
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Pendleton is probably already one of the Astros' top 3 starter prospects.

Dec 09, 2010 9:34 AM on Rule Five Wrap-Up
 
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You sure? Most sources have him marked 2B. Sportsline, Wikipedia, Baseball Prospectus for examples.

Dec 07, 2010 12:46 PM on Refusing to Surrender
 
CRP13
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That warranted a minus? What about my post was inaccurate?

Dec 07, 2010 12:42 PM on Reynolds Wrap
 
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options, not offer. Wordsmithing fail.

Dec 07, 2010 10:50 AM on Refusing to Surrender
 
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Would be interested to hear analysis on Lawrie...obviously he won't play much with Aaron Hill sitting in front of him, and it's a big assumption that the Jays won't pick up Hill's relatively-market-reasonable '12 and '13 offer...

Dec 07, 2010 10:50 AM on Refusing to Surrender
 
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Dunn will hit a lot of home runs for Chicago and will walk a lot, but will be a butcher if playing in the field, and will strike out in bunches. Werth was a strange overpayment of an above-average outfielder on the wrong side of 30 who does everything well but nothing exceptionally. Done and Done.

Dec 07, 2010 10:24 AM on Reynolds Wrap
 
CRP13
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High, apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes?

 
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Not if the Tigers keep spending and spending and spending.

 
CRP13
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Maybe she's cleverly pointing out how arid and lifeless the market is for his services outside of the Bronx.

Nov 30, 2010 11:49 AM on Yankee Drama
 
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Just a hunch, but my thought is the Red Sox will look for something better than "probably wouldn't suck too much".

Nov 30, 2010 9:47 AM on Yankee Drama
 
CRP13
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Well, if Norris is a 5-Star and Zimmermann and Storen are ranked higher on the 25-and-under list, well then....

 
CRP13
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Nice article. Best one of these retrospectives yet.

Nov 23, 2010 9:25 AM on Dick Allen
 
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I would love to be GM of the Rays. What a treat it would be to deal with such a wealth of talent.

Nov 23, 2010 5:59 AM on Tampa Bay Rays
 
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I don't think you'll get Broxton, but Kemp is a better suggestion than Upton, for sure.

Nov 22, 2010 7:04 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
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In that case, I challenge you to tell me what Cecil Cooper did for the Astros ;)

 
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Trade speculation is fun! I'll answer your question: If I were Towers, I would listen, as is my sacred duty, but no I wouldn't take that trades. Here's why: 1) At worst, Upton = Bruce. And I'll take the risks I know over the ones I don't. 2) I don't like any of the other players the Reds are offering beyond Chapman, when I'm considering the long-term future of my club. As I stated above, I'm lukewarm on Leake. 3) At 25 and 28, neither Janish or Cozart excite me at all when I already have a young-ish power-hitting and defensive-wizardly shortstop on my roster. 4) I don't need a fourth outfielder like Heisey because I already have Gerardo Parra and Brandon Allen, and am not sure what to do with them aside from stick one at 1B and pray. 5) Juan Francisco similarly doesn't help me since I've acknowledged that my team's biggest trouble is that it strikes out too much and can't take a walk. That's Francisco's game and he'd be taking me in the wrong directon. 6) I'd make some halfhearted inquiries into having Alonzo thrown in with the group you mentioned, but I wouldn't be excited about it. 7) Financially it doesn't excite me. I'm only saving about $20 million over the next 5 years by trading that collection for Upton and Drew, and that money would barely buy me a replacement-level veteran over that time at the going market rate. It's an interesting offer but in the end, it would help the Reds immensely and the Dbacks very little. A MORE interesting trade would be the Dbacks sending Drew to Tampa for BJ Upton.... :)

Nov 18, 2010 10:20 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
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I don't disagree that Baker deserved recognition this year. It's just amusing after all the potshots people took at him for his leadoff hitter selection this season. But yeah, you play the hand you're dealt and sometimes you win.

 
CRP13
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That's a downgrade at RF and SS for the Diamondbacks, and I'm not sure they'd be upgrading anywhere in the rotation either. Chapman is too much an unknown to be seen as a sure-thing-ace. Don't forget, the Dbacks still have Hudson, Saunders, and Kennedy all of whom are under 30 and no worse than guys like Cueto, Leake, Wood, and Bailey. My Cincy relatives perpetually overrate the talent on their team, and I think some people in the city's media fall into the same trap leading to an unrealistic optimism among their fans. Chapman could be special, but the rest of the rotation has the opportunity to be above-average at best. In the preseason Top-10, KG said Wood's ceiling is likely a 4th starter and Leake's a 3rd. Heisey could be a "good 4th outfielder". Those aren't the kind of players that would pry a Justin Upton or Stephen Drew away, let alone both. You don't trade stars and add a handful of average talent. Unless you're the Twins trading away Santana. Ba-zing!

Nov 18, 2010 9:42 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
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It must burn your soul to vote for a manager who hit at least four players last year in the leadoff spot who held an OBP lower than 350.

 
CRP13
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I contend you'd need way more than an above average SS/pitcher combo plus a light-hitting 1B and a below-average 26-year old pitching prospect. WAY more to get Upton alone, without adding Drew into the mix.

Nov 18, 2010 6:54 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
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Steven, you forgot to mention that BJ Upton's low-OBP leadoff style meshes perfectly with Dusty Baker's. Corey Patterson...Willy Taveras....Orlando Cabrera....Drew Stubbs.....Brandon Phillips....not a one of them with an OBP any higher than 355. It's a match made in heaven for the Reds! (And maybe in that park in an easy division we'll finally start to see the power that BJ's pedigree promised us so many years ago.)

Nov 18, 2010 6:50 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
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There is absolutely no chance of this happening. None. Zero. Zilch. As a Reds fan, do you think there'd be a chance in Hades for the Reds to trade Votto for any combination of marginal upgrades in the rotation? No way, Jose and Upton has a higher ceiling than Votto does. It's nice to dream though, isn't it?

Nov 18, 2010 6:45 AM on Cincinnati Reds
 
CRP13
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Berry is delicious too. And better for you!

 
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It's easier for a team like the Giants, Mariners, Tigers, and Rockies to surprise, given their competition. Harder for the O's who have to go up against a meat grinder every season. The Rays' turnaround can not be a realistic expectation for any team in the AL East, as they had far superior talent (and still do!) in the minor leagues plus perfect and lucky timing. The O's definitely COULD do it in your time frame, but the Rays are still up, the Yankees & Sox are still spending, and the Jays are on their way up. A lot more would need to happen than a couple free agents in the next couple years.

 
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I won't pile on about the suggested trade that makes little sense for the Twins. I will say that it made me smile to see a decision based on intuition instead of stats (McLouth) being thrown into a BP article. Just goes to show how much difference a GM's perspective can have on a team.

Nov 17, 2010 6:27 AM on Atlanta Braves
 
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I would like clarification on this also. Milledge, Young, and LaRoche are still young and cheap enough to be contributors, even if from the bench. It's not like their post-arbitration salaries are even going to sniff the level of a veteran 1-year rental like Geoff Blum.

 
CRP13
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Nice. I think Kevin should get that quote put on a plaque and hung in his office.

 
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The BCS has nothing to do with the price of rice either. If a system is programmed to do a specific thing like the BCS, UZR, FRAA, or whatever, it can only show what it is programmed to show. So I stand by my statement. Fielding metrics might be as flawed as the BCS, but they're just a number. They don't represent any agenda on their own. The POINT is that in this case, the Gold Glove award has turned into a joke of a popularity contest. Even the BCS agrees that Jeter is an extremely below-average defensive shortstop. I suspect that if somebody else repeatedly won a GG award with similarly horrible numbers, a fuss would be made about that as well. Remember when Rafael Palmiero won the Gold Glove in 1999 despite playing only 28 games in the field for the season? Statisticians and reasonable people are annoyed that a fan-favorite who is demonstrably NOT GOOD keeps getting recognized with an award he does not deserve. Baseball fans WANT to believe in stats and awards. Getting this one right is as simple as looking at film and data.

 
CRP13
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Kevin, What do you think Upton's ultimate ceiling might be, now that we've seen him play in the majors for 3 years?

 
CRP13
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I think you just illustrated the point that player/personnel changes shouldn't just be swept under the rug. Any self-respecting Astros fan knew that Feliz and Manzella were experiments doomed to failure, and all untested prospects have huge uncertainty. There should be some way to use a player's liklihood of actually finishing where he started to adjust the team projections. For example: Feliz started 2010 as the 3B starter projected for 500+ PA, but most pundits would agree that if the Astros were to make a change at that base, the most likely outcome would be a small improvement in Runs Scored. Let's say a 60% chance that any change at 3B would mean more Runs Scored, based on his own projected VORP. His own history and projections should also imply that a change at that base during the course of 2010 would be more likely than not - let's say a 70% chance, whereas a player like Hunter Pence would have a 5% chance. Quantifying or projecting the likelihood of player and personnel changes would be an interesting experiment to see how it would affect the projections. 4th Order? P.S. You forgot that Kazuo Matsui started at 2nd base. That surely didn't help.

 
CRP13
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That helped, I got it now. Thanks.

 
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I'm not contributing anything towards the conversation with this post, but I wanted to say that the following sentence made my head explode: "Corelation doesn't care about units - it's normalized covariance, where you're looking at the magnitude of the common change measured in standard deviation, essentially."

 
CRP13
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Numbers aren't everything. But numbers don't lie or form opinions. Those numbers agree that Jeter is a very poor shortstop when measured by getting TO balls in play compared to an average shortstop. "Yankee-Hate" has nothing to do with this or the price of rice in China. The only thing on this page that comes across as if it has an agenda is your own post. My guess would be that if one took this article and replaced the name "Derek Jeter" with "Marco Scutaro", you would have no issue with it.

 
CRP13
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Course, that is over six years, which isn't so bad after all.

 
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Got any ideas for how to "fix" this? Those charts at the end have a huge variation. Looking at the absolute values of those charts shows that on average, the projections are off by 9.4 Wins, 52.1 runs allowed, and 45.2 runs scored. That's a pretty significant average difference between projected and actual.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 5

Colin, I had a grandiose idea yesterday and was wondering if it's been tried. In industry, there are international standards that tell us how to define and document things so that we can all speak a common language. So far, there are no real "standards" applied to sabermetrics, but a lot of the concepts are the same from site to site. Many of the defensive metrics are based on the same ideas even if they come from differing data sources and have slightly different calculations. Same with WARP, WAR, and other metrics from around the internet that essentially tell us the same thing in different ways. I think it's about time for the brains behind sabermetrics to have a summit to decide at LEAST a common numerical scale for each major metric type. So, for the defensive metrics you named above, if they're all based on similar concepts you can say, "We'll make the average score for this type of metric be 100, where 'good' players score above and 'bad' players score below." The benefit is if all metrics of a same type are reported on a same scale, the scores can be 'averaged' to find a happy medium between all the different sabermetric outlets. Everybody can continue using their own methods, and the combined score actually gives you something closer to the truth than just one metric alone. It's probably really ambitious and there may be reasons I'm not aware of why it could never work, but we would have a 'standard' set of advanced metrics that can be presented to the public and possibly give a solid data point for gold glove voters to use. These guys don't want to wade through 100 metrics looking for the one that makes sense to them when "errors" are so easy to understand. But if you give them just one that's on a sliding scale that makes sense....well, that would be nice. I thought about embarking on something similar myself, but I'm probably not the right guy to do it. If the idea has merit, I encourage anybody to run with it.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

Didn't you know he was the greatest fielding shortstop ever? Come on Diana, get with the times :)

 
CRP13
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I've been ostracized from my family because I don't root for the Reds. A prerequisite to existence in my extended family is to be able to name the entire starting lineup and pitching rotation for the 1975-1976 Reds. You must think that Pete Rose got a raw deal and that he really was an ok guy. To set the record straight - the relatives in question really do understand baseball. But something about the Reds clouds their grasp on reality. I received multiple phone calls from people bragging that the Reds would win the NL Central because they finally signed a "legitimate leadoff hitter" in Willy Taveras. The fact that I'm an Astros fan gave them particular glee at that time. I tried to warn them, but alas affiliation the mustached baseball in red stockings automatically elevated Taveras to "misunderstood superstar" status. I know me some Reds fans. They can't pronounce "Aroldis Chapman", but by God they know he throws 105.

 
CRP13
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For the people who just look for comments to destroy, yes I know that ESPN has Kaufmann and Great American ranked with the exact same 2010 park factor, but Kaufmann's is inflated by a ridiculous number of triples (2.6 x average, holy crap). Home Run rate there is depressed, walks were the lowest in the league, and everything else was average.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 2

I really like that all of these (sans the first one) are suggestions that I haven't read before. Thanks for bringing us something more outside-the-box than we can get on the regular internet rumor mill. Question: Couldn't putting him in that bandbox with habitual pitcher-abuser Dusty Baker lead to disappointing results? See "Peavy, Jake" in Chicago. On the other hand, Cincinnati fans hero-worship even their worst players, like when my family there called to brag that they signed Willy Taveras as a free agent. So perhaps the ego-boost of playing there would help offset park effects.

 
CRP13
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The amusing part of your post is that despite your obvious ire, you still shell out subscription money. And you call THEM the hypocrites. For shame!

Nov 08, 2010 10:39 AM on The BSAT Answer Key
 
CRP13
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This is Brandon Wood's year, I can smell it!

 
CRP13
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KG, so you don't see a move back to the rotation for Feliz?

Nov 04, 2010 8:09 AM on Texas Rangers
 
CRP13
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I was dying for the Astros to get in on that and trade for him to play SS...somehow.

 
CRP13
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"I don't think we need a do over CRP, cause your doing it yourself ;-)." Haha, good point. The Astros are about the only team I could talk about and not sound like I have my head in my butt. I'm almost done posting on this thread, I promise. From what I've heard, Wallace is a pretty bad defensive 3B and besides, Johnson was fine last year. BABIP isn't everything, he still had to make contact with the ball. They need to just leave Lee in left field. They have two of the best defensive CF and RF in baseball, let them shift and cover for him for another year and turn him loose when it won't cost the club a zillion smackers.

Nov 03, 2010 6:32 AM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

This.

Nov 03, 2010 6:29 AM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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They were pretty weak arguments for trading their three best hitters. Honestly, what purpose would trading two 26-year old All-Star/Gold Glove outfielders and a cheap 25 year old 3B with power? At their very worst, Pence and Bourn are above-average and they're still under team control. What will they do for a replacement? Sign Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen?

Nov 02, 2010 2:12 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

Well to be fair, an honest assessment of the 2009 Astros would have been "wait until the contracts are gone". Now, other than resident albatross Carlos Lee, the contracts are gone. And the Astros are recommended to sign Nick Punto.

Nov 02, 2010 1:54 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

To clarify, I didn't take it personally, I thought it was funny too. However, the suggestions amounted to cutting Carlos Lee and signing Nick Punto. I like to think that their options are slightly more varied than that.

Nov 02, 2010 1:36 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

He actually played a decent 1B for a few games, but now you're talking about stunting the growth of a five-star prospect, Brett Wallace. Sure, his star has dimmed but most still see him as becoming a decent major-league bat.

Nov 02, 2010 1:35 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 3

Official petition for a do-over on the Astros' GM for a Day: +1 here to sign.

Nov 02, 2010 1:25 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 3

I don't know if a blanket panning of BP is in order, but I do agree there's a pretty strong feeling of ill-will towards Wade around here. I know nothing of him before he was the Astros' GM, but I can't say that anything he's done since warrants such strong e-persecution.

Nov 02, 2010 12:24 PM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

Nobody cares, but I drafted Lewis in my H2H keeper league on PECOTA's forecast alone, and he carried my pitching staff to the championship. -1 me now.

Nov 02, 2010 11:38 AM on Colby Lewis
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 10

I'm really disappointed with this article. It's not trendy to be an Astros fan right now, but BP does have a few in their readership. None of the other GM-FAD articles have been treated as complete jokes except for this one. First off, unless I'm missing an obscure reference, I think you mean Jason Bourgeois, not Jeff. Second, there's not even a halfhearted suggestion for continued development of Bud Norris, Jason Castro and Brett Wallace, none of whom are poorly-thought-of prospects even if they aren't projected stars. Third, as for Chris Johnson, sometimes players take a while to develop, like Andres Torres and Jose Bautista. Your minor league numbers don't tell his whole story. From 2006 to 2008, Johnson hit 266/328/395 which is pretty terrible. But in 2009 and 2010 in the high minors (which are supposed to be more difficult, no?), Johnson hit 299/372/499. He doesn't project to be an All-Star but if he develops a little more, it's not a complete stretch to say he could produce like a slightly-above-average major league 3B. At his cost, it makes complete sense for the Astros to find out rather than trading him away for another A-ball project. Fourth, the starting pitching staff was NOT "merely subpar". Their collective starters had one of the lowest ERAs in the NL after the All Star Break, and even SIERA had no real beef with them. For the season, Rodriguez, Myers, and Norris all came in well under 4.00 while Paulino and Happ below 4.50. Since SIERA is notriously hard on "lucky" pitchers like Happ, is his SIERA of 4.35 over 72 IP really that bad, given by 2012 he chould easily be the #4 starter? Sure, the farm system is a mess and both the owner and GM don't have stellar reputations. I think you could have given us something a little more thought-through than a complete hazing of all things Astros. If they manage to trade or cut Lee (doubtful), there are a couple decent 2B's who could be available (Jose Lopez? Mark Ellis?) and plenty of starters to fill out a fourth or fifth spot in an underrated rotation without going completely broke. The owner's always been willing to spend, and now Berkman and Oswalt are off the books (not even mentioned in the article? For shame!). The NL Central is a slapstick comedy of a division and there's no realistic reason why the Astros can't try to improve their team in 2011 while setting their sights on 2012.

Nov 02, 2010 8:36 AM on Houston Astros
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

Wondering the same thing about the Astros, but since I was afraid of the answer, I didn't ask.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

"it's got passionate, supportive fans, a great manager, a great owner and upper management. And there are great place to live nearby, especially if you're carl crawford and can afford to live wherever you want." That's a good argument. But the same argument can be made about a lot of places. I'll grant you it's certainly possible that Crawford signs with Detroit, I just don't think it's likely. The other stuff - I never actually made my point, if I could delete that post that was cut off, I would. It still doesn't excuse the swearing or personal insults.

Oct 29, 2010 12:52 PM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -2

Nobody in this thread has given a convincing argument WHY Crawford would sign with Detroit if offered similar money by New York or Los Angeles. From John: "Everyone seems to automatically assume that Crawford is going to a large-market team and the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels are the three that always get mentioned as the left fielder's likely destination." ITS NOT ME MAKING THAT ASSUMPTION. I never said that ANYWHERE in ANY of my posts. Yet you all feel the need to call me an "idiot", "numbskull", and "ignorant". Nobody has replied with any valid arguments or suggestions whatsoever. Nothing but insults. If insulting somebody who disagrees with you is the way all you kids choose to go about trying to make a different point, I bet you piss off a lot of people in your life. Jesus Christ, grow up.

Oct 29, 2010 12:00 PM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -2

Tampa's pretty warm in the winter.

Oct 29, 2010 11:56 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: -1

You guys really need to read the part where I said my post was cut off. I never actually made my point.

Oct 29, 2010 11:56 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -3

Dang, formatting killed the radio star. The rest of my post got cut off and I'm too lazy to repost.

Oct 28, 2010 12:17 PM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -2

I shouldn't let you annoy me, but you did. So for some facts: Detroit Average Household Income: $28,730 % of residents living in poverty: 33.3% New York City Average Household Income: $51,116 % of residents living in poverty: 18.2%

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -1

I actually didn't say any of that, that's the irony here. Take off your Detroit-colored glasses and read what I actually wrote.

Oct 28, 2010 11:53 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -3

KC would be foolish to trade an ace pitcher within the division, and the argument for Lee signing in Detroit is no stronger than the argument for Crawford.

Oct 28, 2010 9:33 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -3

Uh...your disagreement with my point of view does not make it okay for you to be rude. My points are based on: 1) Crawford has grown up in and has lived in a warm, white-collar city his whole life. Detroit is neither of those things. 2) Detroit has less going for it than LA or NY from a city standpoint AND from a franchise standpoint. You're blinded by your Detroit homerism if you think otherwise. I live in neither city, so I'm trying to be objective. To your points - Cabrera was TRADED to Detroit and had experience there before he signed a long-term deal. Verlander was brought up through their minor league system. NEITHER of these things have jack or squat to do with Carl Crawford's impending free agency. My ONLY point was John needs a backup plan, and this article only addresses what he'd do IF Crawford signed with Detroit. No reason for you to get all huffy. Take a pill.

Oct 28, 2010 9:27 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

TD, 2-point conversion, and a Field goal. :)

Oct 28, 2010 8:14 AM on Game One Report
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: -2

Your whole plan seems built around wooing Carl Crawford to Detroit. Crawford grew up in Houston and has spent his professional career in Tampa - warm, white-collar, coastal-ish cities. Given the fact that other teams will almost certainly outbid or at least match whatever Detroit has to offer, why would he consider moving there? What's the appeal? I think it would be a good idea to have a backup plan, because I see a near-zero realistic chance of Crawford moving to Michigan.

Oct 28, 2010 6:34 AM on Detroit Tigers
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

My issue is less with the topic and more with the writing. I don't mind an article without a point if it relives a good moment in history or tells a good story. But from a readability standpoint, this one was brutal.

 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 3

My first instinct was to "minus" you for this comment. But to be perfectly honest, it was the very first thing I noticed as well. "If the 1979 World Series belonged to Willie Stargell, and there is not a soul on Earth who watched the man they affectionately called “Pops” will the championship to the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates in those seven games against the Baltimore Orioles who doesn't think otherwise, then the season belonged to manager Chuck Tanner." Is that even a sentence? Truly awful to try to wade through that. Please....please....tougher editing.

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 1

Success in baseball can be broken down to 4 things pretty easily: 1) Health 2) Smart in-season personnel moves 3) A certain base level of talent projected for success 4) Luck (how opponents fare with items 1-3) (no particular order) Too bad none of those things are easily quantifiable.

Oct 26, 2010 11:20 AM on Lessons from the Flags
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

Why not? It's not like Lowrie is a real star himself. D'Arnaud has a great future.

Oct 26, 2010 9:37 AM on Toronto Blue Jays
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

He's thanking opposing pitchers for coming after him with fastball and offspeed? Something about that whole quote just sounds weird. Did he think they were going to fake an injury and ask to be taken out rather than pitch to him? Pitch around him in the AFL? Does he really think he's on a pedestal, or is this just poor word choice that gives the reader a mental image of somebody patting their dog on the head and saying, "Good boy...you pitched to me! Now run along and play."

Oct 25, 2010 1:28 PM on October 18-24
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 5

Fantastic article Ken, I always look forward to these. Incidentally, please don't actually send this to real managers. I have a feeling the answers would depress the sabermetric community.

Oct 22, 2010 9:22 AM on The BSAT
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 0

I just have to disagree with everything you said. I don't see that Colvin developed - I see a kid who went gangbusters when he was brought up to the majors then came back down to an expected (below-average) level once the league adjusted. It's a story told a thousand times. He may turn out to be a late bloomer or a decent starter, but in no way has he earned the right to hit cleanup instead of guys like Ramirez, Soriano, or even Byrd. Dropping Ramirez and Soriano in the order serves no purpose except to give less at-bats to the most proven hitters in their lineup. I do appreciate the creativity of your solution though, I just think it would make the Cubs even worse than they already are.

Oct 21, 2010 7:44 PM on Chicago Cubs
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

"...including the Atlanta Braves, who may be able to offer a big-league ready first baseman in Freddie Freeman as part of a package deal." WHY? This makes no sense. The Braves have no first baseman at all, but already have two outfielders who should be serviceable in center (Ankiel and McLouth, despite their awful seasons). Upton in center would be an upgrade yes, but the Braves would be giving up a cheap well-thought-of prospect at the one position where they have the greatest off-season need. Besides, in the Atlanta Braves KeG article, ESPN suggested the Braves trade for Rasmus, another ridiculous idea in itself. So which is it?

Oct 21, 2010 8:42 AM on Tampa Bay Rays
 
CRP13
(46873)
Comment rating: 1

You would bat Colvin fourth? REALLY? That post-ASB 246/316/469 line doesn't bother you? How about the 277/316/465 line from 442 minor league games? You might wanna get yourself checked, you're showing all the symptoms of crazy!

Oct 21, 2010 8:17 AM on Chicago Cubs
 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

"Anybody else notice how this game doubled as a partial reunion of the 2005 White Sox? Uribe, Rowand, Gload, Jose Contreras—I half-expected Geoff Blum to pinch-hit." Not to mention Oswalt and Lidge, even if neither pitched...they were there!

 
CRP13
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Comment rating: 0

+1

Oct 20, 2010 2:10 PM on Chicago Cubs
 
CRP13
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Dunn is a great solution for any team in MLB looking for a power hitting 1B. So I'm not slamming your mention of him, just poking fun. Unfortunately for the other 5-6 clubs mention