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It is clear that when it comes to the Royals saber analysis has failed. The sum of their parts seems to add up to more than the whole. They have had a lot of things go wrong this year (<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31640">Alex Rios</a></span> is awful, Infante is worse, Gordon missed two months, Cueto has been a bust, Perez continues to decline at the plate, etc.) and have prevailed.
The bullpen thing should not have been missed. Madsen, Hochevar, and Young clearly added significant depth to the pen and added it right where the Royals needed it in the middle innings. I think this is the case of BP relying on a platitude ("Bullpen regress") rather than analysis.
Volquez may be nothing more than good scouting. Maybe a scout saw something that could be fixed. Who knows but we should just accept that humans are hard to predict.
Maybe the much vilified <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ned+Yost">Ned Yost</a></span> figured something out. If you notice that in most losses he tends to use his weaker bullpen pieces saving his studs for games they can win.
There was one guy who did predict this: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17960">Rick Sutcliffe</a></span>. From Day One he predicted the Royals would win the AL Central.
Using Zobrist in the OF is most likely what will happen. Ol' Ned isn't clever enough to figure out that Rios and Infante are killing us. He will bench the speed merchants (Dyson & Orlando) who at least offer us some quality defense. Cain is going to think he is all alone in the OF.
Has <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103721">Sean Manaea</a></span> done anything of note??
Wow, another MLU with a Yankee player in it.
This specious reasoning seems to apply to team side of the equation. When a team sends out a player so the service time clock doesn't start they are greedy, manipulative, and being totally unfair to a deserving young man. All this rhetoric over something the MLBPA agreed to in collective bargaining. If the player doesn't like it he should take it up with the MLBPA.
The clubs have a right to run they club the way they see fit provided it is within the law and the CBA, if any. It's called business. And they don't have to listen to the whinings of a bunch of people who have no skin in the game.
If you hate this "service clock" thing then advocate the MLBPA to give up something else that the teams would rather have.
Duffy has started 56 of the 62 games he has appeared in so I don't think mentioning him is relevant.
The Cubs are counting on a bunch of real young guys to deliver and that is a crap shoot today. Analysts no longer can project guys in the high minors with particular accuracy. Even the best young AAA hitters just flame out in the bigs anymore. Hitters with proven minor league plate discipline seem to consistently fail against the major league uber-strike zone.
The odds are too many of the young Cubs pieces will fail this year to let them be a real contender.
This club will have serious problems fielding batted balls. If the Padres didn't win the off-season then the White Sox did.
It sure seemed like the Padres picked up a ton of talent without paying a real price for it.
Not as confident as you are about the Royals farm system. They just keep misfiring on their #1's. All we have to show for them under GMDM is a singles hitting 1B (Hosmer), a 3B (Moose) who can't hit, a utility guy (Colon, a wasted 4th overall), a pitcher (Zimmer) who has never been healthy, another pitcher (Finnegan) who we were told would be a starter and was immediately used as a reliever. I guess that leaves it up to Manaea and Dozier to do something.
Nor does the system offer much of anything for the Royals this year. A reliever or two and a utility guy is hardly upping the quality of the big club.
Seriously? Even at BP you had one guy who didn't vote for Randy Johnson? Or Pedro?? Hopefully it was a strategic reason like trying to save a vote for a qualified guy who might not get elected if he "wasted" his vote on two guys who were sure to get in.
Highly humorous. I knew that there had to be guidance from a "Higher Entity" for what is going on in KC.
The Royals analytics department is a joke. They hired these extremely bright guys only to lock them in the basement. They trot them out once a year when BP come to town. You will notice that even in the dead of summer none of those guys has a tan.
There is no such thing as someone from the Braves organization being a viable GM candidate. Be afraid. Very afraid.
A Royal finally makes this update and it is basically to say his prospect status is just about over.
Considering the Royals under Dayton Moore have never had a #1 pick develop into an impact player or a starting pitcher what makes you think they are lying about Zimmer. My money is he never sees the majors in a Royals uniform.
The Royals must have the most blah minor league system in the majors. They have very little really good days or really bad days so they are rarely on this report.
This was a great throw from distance point of view but it pales in comparison to the Great Bo Jackson throw from the left field corner of Royals stadium to get a much superior runner in Harold Reynolds by an eye lash.
Cespedes kicked the ball around, missed the cut off man by a wide margin, and made a high arching through rather than a straight one.
I don't know who has the most accurate arm in the bigs but I would put my money on Alex Gordon.
Dozier is so screwed. He projects as a second division guy and the Royals aren't done "developing" him yet.
Good show. I had almost given up on this series. As much as I always enjoyed the typical 2+ hours shows maybe we could get more of then if they were just 45-60 minutes and somewhat mote focused as this one was.
And it is time for Jason to fess up that Hosmer is never going to be anything special.
Tell the batter to stay in the batter's box and to be ready within 5 seconds of the last pitch (barring injury). Tell pitchers to get in gear. Do not permit throws to bases when the runner is within ten feet of it.
I was at a Royals game with Paul Bird and Mark Buerhle pitching that had a final score of 5-3 on a walk off homer in the bottom of the ninth. Time elapsed: 2 hours 5 minutes. The key was the pitchers were ready to pitch as soon as they got the ball back and they were throwing strikes.
GMDM's great off-season was built squarely on the shoulders of sticking with Francouer and Getz for an absurdly long time. In fact you can seriously argue they should never have been acquired. Yes GMDM greatly inmproved the team with Aoki and Infante, but is the one who got us in that mess.
If we could have gotten Cano for 7/$210M then maybe you do it. To outbid Seattle at 10/$240 IS insane.
Oh, and PECOTA has jumped the shark. Time to retire that bad boy. It just keeps all teams toward the mean.
I see where Jason had identified the next John Lamb. Royals pitcher development is brutal.
Oh, pshaw. To say "the Royals reinforced their rotation this offseason by adding Jason Vargas ...." is absurd. "Undermined their rotation" would be a better choice of words.
I really dislike the idea of the 37 year old soft tossing righthander (Arroyo) in the AL. The Royals already have Vargas lined up as the lamb to the slaughter.
If this takes the Yanks back over the luxury tax thresh hold they will be kicking themselves for not re-signing Cano.
"He did the little things."
"He was better than (name of incredibly weak HoF VC selectee) so he should be in also."
"He had that one great game."
A good podcast but not one of their best. Always worth while to listen.
I prefer the crudity be lessened/toned down/eliminated but will not engage in a drive by to have my way. We are being given fair notice of what to expect so no complaints on that score.
Not my cup of teas, but no harm done.
I enjoy seeing who voted for whom and why. I can understand what some writers might not want to publish their ballot. Considering the brutalization that Gurnick received I will be surprised if more voters done keep their ballot to themselves.
I am really opposed to giving voters more slots on their ballot. What we need is an electorate that understands they need to identify the qualified candidates on the ballot and to vote for them in the descending sequence of their qualification.
The HoF needs to get over this strictly BBWAA thing anyway. They need to get rid of the dead wood in that group (yes, Murray Chass I am talking about you) and replace them with guys who know the game (Bill James, Rob Neyer, etc.)
The ten vote limit worked well. It may have seemed like you had to cut off limbs but look at the result. You "elected" seven guys of whom 4 are holdovers from last year. If this was the real election then next year you would be confronted with a much easier group to chose from even though you will be adding 3 top tier guys to the ballot.
One more election like this and your perceived problem goes away.
All the electorate has to do is pick the ten best qualified guys and this problem goes away in short order.
The problem with the process is not the ten-player limit per ballot. The problem is that the BBWAA is not a very qualified electorate. We either need to upgrade their knowledge or replace a lot of them with people who know the game. The average BBWAA guy looking at the current ballot with 15 or so qualified candidates is only using 6-7 of his slots. This means they, as a group, have difficulty in identifying the deserving other than the obvious "dominant" players.
Modify the 5% rule to give a guy at least three years on the ballot before dropping him.
While the masses cry for an expansion of the 10 player limit I say leave it a lone, particularly with an electorate like BP's panel here. When you have a group that feels compelled to use every slot on the ballot the risk is way too high that candidates with marginal cases will get in.
If the BBWAA let the voters have extra slots Jack Morris would be in the HoF. It is the Law of Unintended Consequences rearing its ugly head (again).
I agree we have more than ten fully qualified candidates this year, but if we miraculously elected the top ten our logjam goes away. A better rule change would be to get rid of the 5% rule and let every player eligible have at least three years on the ballot. If they don't get to 5% by then then drop them.
This ballot is a monster. There are as many as 15 guys with cases to be elected. Too many, in fact. I can easily see where only Maddux gets elected.
This would be easy if we had a separate election for the juicers. This would limit the number of qualified guys in the different elections and give us hope of getting these guys in.
Or, if you prefer something more politely stated, just split the candidates into two somewhat balanced groups and vore on each group.
You would be wrong, of course. Firing an arbitrator has nothing to do with how you treat him while he is part of the arbitration process. Either of the two other sides can terminate an arbitrator after any ruling. And no reason is required. This is not exactly a rare occurrence. In fact it is fairly common.
Each of the two interested parties always treat the arbitrator with respect and courtesy. This done out of professional civility and the knowledge that they may work on future cases together. Even when serving a termination notice it will usually be served with respect. Arbitrators, like managers, are hired to be fired.
What Arod and his team are doing is snubbing the arbitrator during the process. So Arod has made a fool of himself (again) and alienated the one person in the world who could really help him. Arbitrators are very professional people who try to make their decisions based on the evidence (not the personalities)but they are human.
And woe betide the fool who heads to court to counter something that is covered by a CBA. You will get your ass handed to you. It has nothing to do with what's fair and right. It has everything with the law and established precedent.
These reports are amazing in there detail and thoroughness. The problem is they just all run together in one big blur. We are going to end up with 30 reports and just no easy way to compare one system to another. I know Jason wanted to get away from the star rating system but it had its uses.
Cogratulations to a group of guys who have worked hard (often in the wilderness) to create such a great product and who are coming to see the fruits of their labors.
Nothing but the best to the BP Staff!!
This is a great column. Zach did a great job with it. Read it every day and will miss it.
Some of you you are not recalling the absolute disaster that first the iteration of the NFL's replay procedure was which permitted lots of replay reviews. Goodness gracious, games went on forever and you had no idea whether to cheer or wait until 1) you realized there wasn't going to be a replay review or 2) the replay came back in your favor.
I know we can all come up with live action conundrums for any baseball review procedure. Expect lots of talking head criticism of the system when they implement it.
Just hard to get excited about Zimmer. A Top 5 pick who is struggling overall in High A ball isn't likely to do much as he progresses.
Brutal article, but sometimes you have to call them like you see them.
If you are one of these guys you want to be picked 1-7 so that the Royals have no chance to ruin your pro career.
When will the Kauffman Stadium tickets be made available??
I was watching the game and it was clear that Quinton didn't hardly move to get out of the way of the ball. I mean the guy stands right on the plate, he's huge, and he expects not to be hit? The pitch Greinke threw could not have been 4 inches inside. No sympathy for him from me. He really should be suspended as long as Greinke is out.
The reason Quinton got a major suspension are because he caused the whole event: 1) Standing right on top of the plate, 2) didn't make any effort to get out of the way of the pitch, and 3) charged the mound without much provocation.
Umpires need to be trained to not give hitters an HBP when they are camped on top of the plate and make no move to get out of the way.
This really sounds apochryphal. Rules come and go, but unless the rule the catcher has to remain in the catcher's box until the ball is thrown didn't exist then, there is no way this play would be legal.
Great picture of Stengel and Mack.
Lohse is a career average pitcher that is very dependent on his defense for success. He's also going to be 34 this year. His problem wasn't the loss of a draft pick but that teams are getting smarter about spending their money on pitchers his age who don't miss bats.
I should also note that Lohse is a member of one of the two groups that negotiated this CBA. In a fairly negotiated contract you don't get to cherry pick the provisions you want to apply to yourself.
Maybe, Lohse came out on the short end of the stick here but $33M is a nice consolation gift.
The next writer at BP that remotely takes MLB's side in a dispute will be the first. They make the ACLU look like a right-wing organization.
This action by MLB is much more likely a "message pitch". Maybe they can't win this case, but they are sending notice that they take the PED's issue very seriously and will press hard to find the proof they need to prosecute anyone.
I have no idea if MLB is our "to get" Arod and Braun, but seriously, does any one have any doubt they are using??
At times you would think that BP should rename itself the Baseball Leftist. In stead of mounting a soapbox and sermonizing about something as trivial as this how about doing some positive actual work for a those in need?
I would rather listen to you tell me how you helped disabled vets or the homeless over the weekend than read one of these holier than thou screeds.
It's a dark time for St. Louis and all baseball fans.
Just no love for Joakim Soria.
Of course, I am serious. This article was presented as a serious commentary on certain players and yet by its own standards didn't identify the most likely nominees for these "awards".
Enjoyment has nothing to do with validity.
Yeah, to omit Francoeur and Young lays waste to the validity of this article.
I have never been big on owners, executives or unionists being in the HoF. Not a one of them gives a hoot in hell about the fan.
Bowie Kuhn was a bumbling stooge when measured against any competent being let alone someone as talented as Miller. Kuhn's election was an embarrassment to baseball and doubly so because of Miller's exclusion.
You are being way too kind to the Royals.
You have to be happy for people who work hard and move up the ranks in their profession. Congratulations to both Kevin and Jason.
OTOH, it is apparent that BP is devolving into a farm system for the Big Boys to pouch upon whenever they have a need to fill. This constant churning of talent is really getting tiring. As we continually lose top talent so do the odds go up that long-time readers will not like the replacements.
The best thing Colon has going for him is that the front office of the Royals has no confidence in Giavotella.
You guys must all be rather new to the game. "Back in the Day" non-fraternization was the absolute standard of conduct with only minor relaxations of the code during all-star games. Guys were dead serious about wanting to beat the other guy and they didn't see how being friendly with their opponents furthered that goal.
Anymore with guaranteed contracts and the general weakening of social standards the old "non-fraternization" mentality is all but gone. Heck you watch games today and you see base runners yucking it up with the infielders.
Don't know which approach is the right way, but as is often the case a BP writer mocks someone for a standard of conduct they either disagree with or doesn't understand.
Bobby Lowe and Ed Delahanty are probably wondering where's the love.
As Dale Mitchell can tell on a 3-2 count for the final out of a perfect game you had better be hacking.
Man, I am ready for this. The one we did in KC last year was fabulous.
I guess it is surprising that Manny is willing to risk delaying the start of his HoF countdown just to get a few at bats for chump change.
Why is it so difficult for people to understand that not all countries work under the same laws as we do? It doesn't make them wrong, simply different.
Sadly, Kim may be the only real loser here. The O's can probably get off the hook by paying the KBA some kind of fine and agreeing not to use Kim in any capacity. And the KBA may simply then leave Kim on the blacklist even if he gives the money back. And they might do that to send a strong message to other Korean youngsters. That would be a real hardball move.
No, I disagree about Arizona. They have a major problem with illegal immigration and to toss it off with a backhanded reference to their attitude is very simplistic view from 2500 miles away. I don't have problem understanding why these people are coming here. They want to make a living to support their families and they are willing to work hard to do it. But today is not the social structure of long ago when someone who wanted to come here had to earn everything they got. Today's governments (that's us) are being required to provide free medical care, educations, etc., to too many people. It is a real tough nut to solve, but too many people seem to think that once someone crosses our borders we owe that a life style commensurate with a citizen of this country.
Latinos in the game have done nothing but improve the game because they got into it on merit. Remove them and you lower the overall quality of play. Yes, we have had problems with Latinos lying about their age, but the oppressing poverty that a great many of these players grow up in makes these acts understandable. Generally speaking they simply trying to make a living.
One other thought. I don't mean this to sound harsh, but when dealing with addicts you must never, ever believe them. Do not care one whit about what they say. It is all about what they do. Addicts are the most accomplished liars on the planet.
When a addict says he's clean, do not believe him. Merely judge him by his actions. Help him as much as you can, but never lose sight of the fact he is an addict.
To call Joan Croc an idiot based here reaction to Alan Wiggins relapse with cocaine is Monday morning quarterbacking of the saddest order. Thirty years we were not near as well informed on drug addiction as we are today. Her reaction is very consistent with what most adults attitude at that time. That was a day and age (which ended shortly thereafter) when most of us expected other people to be accountable for their actions.
And then Goldman writes "...Wiggins certainly bears some of the responsibility for his fate....". Bears some of the responsibilty. Tell me you jest. Surely you didn't mean that. He bears virtually all the responsibility for his fate.
In light of what we know today about addiction the article is spot on. Hamilton will be an addict all his remaining life and it is incumbent upon us to help him fight his demons. However, should he lose his fight the fault is not ours, but his.
Being somewhat paranoid about the ages of Latin American players is there any concern that Cuthbert is older than we have been led to believe??
Seriously?? Blaming the team for the negotiations going down to the wire?? You're kidding right. So when the agent come sin with a preposterous demand just cave and give it to him??
In baseball it takes two to procrastinate and the player's agent is every much to blame as the team. And if the agent is Scott Boras it is always the agents fault.
The things Selig gets blamed for at times are simply laughable.
1) He did not cancel a season and/or series. The owners were dead set on a confrontation and the Union was deadset on punishing as many people as possible. Once the Union walked Jesus Christ couldn't have saved the season.
2) The tied all-star game was a direct result of mismanagement by by the two managers.
3) Get over the contraction thing. It was just a ploy to put some pressure on the Union.
4)Dithered on PED's?? Pray tell how? The Union leadership wasn't going to permit any changes in the system. It was a strike issue to them. They didn't cave until Congress put the heat on them.
It's like some of you think the Commissioner has god-like powers and can do whatever he wants. He doesn't. We need to be grateful that Selig has kept the 30 loons who own ball clubs from wanting to fire up the "lock out express" for 17+ years.
Half of the author's stuff is things that should be done (A's stadium, killing blackouts, and training a successor. The rest is just the desire to say "I knew you were lying!". Why should Bud saying anything about PED's while Fehr gets a free pass.
And don't write a book. Any body who has done any serious study of history knows that the worst histories are of the autobiographical nature. They are not objective.
Another argument the Morris Crowd uses is he was the Ace of the three different WS champions. The cold truth is he was not the best pitcher on any of those teams.
Morris had a wonderful career, but the "specialness" of it is all driven by the great teammates he had.
Selig manages to infuriate most fans and gets no respect from most pundits (yeah, you Sheehan), but all he has done is give us twenty years of labor peace. For those of you who missed the twenty prior years that is a miraculous accomplishment.
Morris's entire claim to the HoF rests on the quality of his teammates.
I have to say that the new version of WARP just doesn't pass my sniff test. It is now telling us that really good HoF players are on average worth maybe three games a year versus Joe "4A" Dokes.
If anybody in this group is to be elected soon they better do it now because the upcoming freshman classes are monsters.
If we voted earlier how do flag our ballot as public??
Rob Dibble?? For crying out loud the guy is all talk and no substance. He makes Mitch Williams look competent.
This is just a tremendous addition to BP's product offerings. Kudos, Jeff!!
There are a heck of a lot guys in their 50's with former major league manager on their resume than there are jobs available. These guys are almost indistinguishable from one another. As BP used to say they are "fungible". $600K might be low compared to his peers but it is way above what he is going to get elsewhere.
And the thing is Riggleman had to know this. If Rizzo wishes to be intractable on the option year he rides out the season and becomes a free agent with something to talk about (assuming the Nats finish around .500). Now nobody will touch him because he walked off the job in mid-season. He will be lucky to be making $100K next year.
Yes, we have seen this article before with Joe Sheehan being one of the foremost proponents. The problem is we don't in a perfect world. A manager is more likely to get fired because of what the fans think of him and the media says about him than anything else.
If Fredi doesn't follow the current book of not using your closer on the road in a tie game the second guessers have a field day. If it fails he gets criticized for being a boob. If it works he was "lucky". And when this happens you had best be winning a lot of ballgames (see Torre, Joe).
And the 2% of us who know he did the right thing don't count. The talking heads on ESPN and MLBTV have vastly more influence than we do.
Very nice article, Steve.
Those of you who haven't read the Posnanski piece are missing out on a wonderful story. Everyone else who is writing about Feller today will fall well short of the standard set by Joe.
Miller should have been elected if anyone was but we sure didn't need his diatribe on his omission. It would be interesting to find out which non-owner didn't vote for him. Might be interesting to hear what Miller would have to say about that person.
And the NHoF didn't let him down unless you want to accuse them of failing to create a body whose only goal was to elect Miller. It was the VC. That's as useless an organization as mankind has ever devised. It doesn't matter what form or makeup they always screw the pooch.
As for Zito versus Glass, any rational thought process would easily yield Zito as the answer to who is the most overpaid.
Not a bad way to go. I don't even offer Greinke or the ESPN feeding frenzy begins and ends up in a deal happening when one shouldn't. I still cringe in horror about the Saberhagen trade. Only Bret's long term health kept that from being the unmitigated disaster that it was doomed to be.
I really don't want GMDM doing anything involving major leaguers. He will just screw it up. And let's pray that Kendall is out for all of 2011. His ability to bully his way into the line-up is simply unbelievable.
I have no problem in offering DeJesus, but I am not sure how much you would get considering his recent injury history.
Kila, Butler, Aviles, Betamit, Yuniesky (god he is awful), Pena, May, Gordon, DDJ, Maier (yeah, dyson is faster, but that's it), and three goobers and the position players are set. As soon as Moose is ready, cut a goober. No multi-year contracts to out-of-town veterans.
Another year of Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar and I will be suicidal, but what can you do. I like Bannister be has totally botched his chance. Hopefully, GMDM will realize that signing Chen to a two-year deal will place him squarely in the way in 2012. I's rather somewhat overpay him for one year than have return to being Bruce Chen and still under contract for 2012.
I am not opposed to trading Greinke, Butler, or Soria, but each deal must be heavily weighted in our favor. I wouldn't be surprised if several 2011 contending teams didn't push hard for Butler as we near the trading deadline. With 2+ years before he becomes an FA he might be very attractive to a contender.
Buddy you are in deep poop. This article is in direct contradiction to BP's longstanding informal editorial policy that any form of restriction of an athlete to enter the work force is an abomination. If Joe Sheehan was dead he would be rolling in his grave. "-))
The article thesis might have some value (Rose for the HoF) but the supporting evidence is lame and certainly not the kind of reasoning we expect from BP authors.
Look, the guy bet on baseball games of teams he managed. Do you understand how serious that is?? The guy had total influence who would play for his team in those games and the situations they would be used in. Unless you could show that once he bet on a game involving his team he always bet on them you are stuck with the rather obvious notion that he was doing less than his best to win the games he didn't bet on.
Do you recall Rose's conduct every year during HoF week?? Instead of laying or staying away he showed up every year to get his bonanza in autograph fees and distract from the inductees day of honor. You might recall he even allowed his tell-all book to be released immediately after the announcement of Molitor's and Eckersley's election to the HoF. He did this callously and without regret. He simply wanted to generated publicity for his book. In this case it backfired.
And for fourteen years he lied to us. Lied to us in a most relentless manner before finally fessing up. And for fourteen years his sycophants and toadies in the press told us what bastards we were for keeping him out of the HoF. Do these people have any pride??
The only argument that is left for Rose is the simple "is twenty years enough". No B.S., no half-truths, no whining and gnashing of teeth as if he is the offended party. That's it.
And we should answer this question before we put him into the ground. For myself, if it was decided that he could face election through the VC process and that all living HoF members would have a vote and that their vote would constitute half the electorate I could live with that.
The fans, generally dislike (hate?!) Selig but he has given them 16 years of labor peace. He has kept the owners in line and functioning as quasi-unified body. Failing to factor that into the "economic growth" formula is an omission of no small amount.
Likewise, the players are not fond of him either and all he has done is make them filthy rich (as a group).
The owners, rightly so, have great respect him as he has done for them what he did for the players.
Can you imagine the post-game news conference if Morneau bats and gets a big extra base hit?? When asked about letting Morneau hit had Manuel rolled out Matt's line of reasoning they would have had him tarred and feathered. The fans would have burned him in effigy.
Matt's reasoning might be right, but if it doesn't work it is the type of thing that gets a manager fired.
And the legendary comments like "Williams, if that bat comes down you are out of the game." and "Son, when you throw a strike Mr. Hornsby will let you know."
The word on the street here in KC is that the Royals have reached a pre-draft agreement with Yasmini Grandal, C, Miami, and will take him with the 4th pick.
I have it on Comcast 226 which is strictly High Def.
I don't know how this network wins awards; its flagship show is absolutely dreadful. Could they have come up with a worse crew of ex-jocks to discuss the game?? Mitch Williams has single-handedly dragged sports commentary to an abysmally low level.
Not a single one of them has a clue about the statistical revolution that has occurred.
The Royals already have 5 starters better than Perez so why would they take him??
I have a math degree, but have to tell you Will is spot on here. The increasing sophistication of the statistics that bring very little improvement in our understanding of what happened is appalling. Many of the articles now being written are incredibly boring with their dense layers of statistical explanations which befuddle all but a few and bore the hell out of all of us.
Take your SIERA (to pick one) and put it where the sun don't shine.
This is something MLB Network should be doing rather than rolling their seemingly endless supply of has-been players who are absolutely clueless when it comes to evaluating players using modern tools.
You can compare Thomas and Martinez if you want but you are going to have to be pretty tricky with the numbers to say Martinez is a match for Thomas. Even using win shares Thomas is well ahead in career, best ten consecutive years, or ten best years (not necessarily consecutive).
I like Martinez a lot but he isn't Frank Thomas.
Glavine's 300 wins and winning percentage (.600) just overpower any real objection to his candidacy. I prefer Blyleven to him, but that's how it goes.
I've only been watching baseball for 55 years, but I will say that if Frank Thomas isn't a HoFer then I have never seen one.
I've ordered mine through Amazon. They still have the ship date listed as 02-26-2010.
Hmm, no reference to who did the foreword. I thought it was George Will's year. :-))
So if the Yanks got less from the players with less than 6 six of service time than anyone and more from the players they purchased you can say they bought the pennant.
The Yanks do have to be credited with overspending to be sure their home grown core (Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Williams, etc) didn't go to free agency during their primes.
The signing of Kendall is beyond dumb. Well, actually it isn't. Just another bad move by GMDM. I wish Atlanta would take this goober back.
Kila may be on the Royals 40-man roster but to actually bring him to KC just be more evidence of GMDM's folly in signing Jacobs last year.
BTW, Jacobs is really a good guy and very positive influence in the clubhouse. He just can't hit LHers, nor field, nor run the bases, nor get on base, etc.
Gammons is simply wonderful to read and listen to. Wish him nothing but the best in his future endeavors. You just have to wonder if Tim Kirkjian won't be the next guy out the door.
MLB Network needs all the help it can get. Good grief those guys aren't any better than Eric Young on a bad day. You have to wonder if they could have found a poorer collection of ex-players who know virtually nothing about the game they played.
One BP writer rates Moustakis as the Royals best prospect and another says he has gotten fat.
Arod will take the "no clutch" to his grave. Statheads can rant all they want but he has been branded. Just like Jeter will be "Mr. Clutch" forever. It is one of those goofy times when perception is reality.
Any system that purports there are six teams worse defensively than the Royals is immediately suspect.
Any ranking system that contends there are ten front offices worse than the Royals is seriously flawed.
Bradley hasn't produced as expected but the Cubs got one heck of a lot more our of him than they got out of Soriano and for less money.
Hendry is the guy that screwed the pooch here. To think the volatile Bradley was going to produce at last year's level while playing everyday was just insane. The guy's age and injury history had to be major red flags.
I rarely side with the MLBPA, but I can't believe that if they file a grievous this suspension will voided in a hurry. They won't have to play him but they will have to pay him.
BTW, if you want to unload Bradley ship him to the Royals for Jose Guillen. We will even throw in Kyle Fransworth.
Gordon was not rushed to the bigs. He destroyed AA pitching and was minor league player of the year. Only an organization with a stone-cold stud in place at 3B would have kept him in the minors. Besides Omaha is an old Indian worder for "the place where careers die".
Brett is pretty much on record as describing Gordon as someone who won't listen. If a left-handed hitting 3B won't take instruction from Brett you know the kid is stubborn.
However, if the kid thinks Hillman is lame he isn't wrong about everything.
Steve Goldman and a "Defense of the Yankees" article. Who would have thought it?
I guess this explains why Fox's baseball telecasts, as announced by Buck and McCarver, are so god-awful.
What Zimmerman did was no worse than what the author did, only Zimmerman was more tactful. Unlike the author Zimmerman has "skin in the game". His livelihood will be directly effected by these negotiations. The author?? Not so much.
If Strasburg doesn't want to sign for the dough offered that's fine, but let's not sit on a holier-than-thou platform and whine because someone directly effected by Strasburg's decision is not happy about it.
You have to give credit to Joe for watching the game and given a reasonable report of it. The Buffoons at ESPN "reported" it as if it was the return of the Prodigal Son. If Eric Young simply has no clue how to evaluate what happens right in front of him. I am surprised he didn't bring out the old chest nut "he pitched to the score".
And the Marlins are going to move where??
The worse part of the Betancourt deal was that GMDM paid way more than Seattle would have settled for to get him out of town. And there is no way to sugar coat that by saying Moore values different things. He spent $10 when the seller would gladly have taken $5. Or even $1.
It really grates my hide that the folks in Seattle are just laughing their butts off at us.
This confusing article (what were you really arguing??) tactfully goes right by the point of Royals fans anger with GMDM. The guy has had three years to do something and has failed miserably. He continues to bring in slow, non-OBP hackers, who can't run or defend. And he pays a premium to do it.
He hires a manager who simply has no idea what to do with a pitching staff or younger players. Buddy Bell redux, if you will.
He has not brought in a single player that has reached AA ball with any kind of prospect status.
What kind of GM would trade a high quality reliever for a starting CF and then replace the the reliever with an expensive low quality reliever?? basically GMDM thought that he would rather have Crisp and Farsworth when most of us would have kept Ramirez and $11M.
He's supposed to be the smart guy in the organization but let last year's record delude him into thinking we were just a player away. He didn't bother to look that last year's record was fueled by three things you can't count on: The Tigers collapse, domination of the NL in interleague play, and most of our September games being against teams more worried about their tee times than game times.
I grew up in the 50's and in those days and for years to come the ASG was played for blood. It was fabulous. This farce of expanded rosters and getting everybody in the game has just ruined this event. Change the roster back to 25 guys (16 position players and 9 pitchers) and let's get on with it. Keep the 3-inning limit on pitchers until you are down to your last pitcher.
That's two players per position and enough pitchers to last 18 innings. Oh, and get rid of "the every team gets a rep" rule except for the host team. Thanks to Joe Torre we might have to put a limit on the number of players taken from one team. I know it was really Selig's fault for letting Joe do it, but we need to stop that.
And, finally, get rid of the inane home-field advantage thing.
Fehr has a record to be proud of, but it is not this impeccable resume Sheehan speaks of while mentioning some venial missteps. Fehr deserves every bit of credit for the lost season of 1994 as the owners. He had the players strike then, not because of leverage, but simply to show the owners he could punish them at any time.
Fehr has made it abundantly clear, as did Marvin Miller, that they do not give a damn about the fans or the game. And this is the sad thing about sites like BP and writers like Joe Sheehan. By rolling over for the Union in the way they accuse other writers of doing for the owners they leave the voiceless fan without any representation.
Most of the selection are very defensible, other than Ramirez. Even if you wish to turn a blind eye to PEDs and naively take Manny's excuse at face value, you still have to keep him off this year's team. The guy is going to miss 1/3rd of the season, got caught red-handed cheating (whether you accept it or not) and you are going to reward him with an all-star berth??
I'd prefer Beltran, Braun, Dunn, or Ibanez. And, yes, I agree Manny is superior to all of them, but sometimes you have to make adult decisions.
Hillman in his stubborn stupidity just lost what's left of the Royals fan base and no telling what it did to his fragile hold on the players. You simply can't make decisions this stupid and expect to survive.
The guy had two chances to get this right and he botched both of them.
This is very sad news. RIP.
German's problem is that he can't field at any position.
Arbitration is what it is. Teams have an enormous investment in players; many who are never productive. Teams use the suppressed wages of the first two years to help cover the overall cost of player development. The arbitration process sucks, but is there a better way?? Don\'t know.
And Bud takes another between the eyes.
Jay, I think you are under the delusion that the Yankees owe you something. The Yanks just signed up for $425M to three guys this off-season. They intend to pay those guys and still make a serious profit. They believe they can make more money at the new prices than the old. If that involves you not being at the stadium then so be it.
As is custom at BP it\'s all about blaming Selig. God forbid we shine the light of truth on Donald Fehr and Gene Orza. Nothing wrong with ripping Selig on the steroid issue if it trips your trigger but to do so without calling out his very active co-conspirators is a sure sign of a personal vendetta.
This whole PED\'s thing gives me heartburn. Every article, including this one, has a sanctimonious \"holier-than-thou\" tone to it. And from the prima facie evidence PED\'s didn\'t seem to help most of the players who used the stuff. Only Barry Bonds\'s late age performance is beyond all reckoning.
This has gotten surreal. We have the Media (see article above) calling out the Media. We have the Union members calling out the Union leadership. We have Federal Prosecutors spending tens of millions of dollar to prosecute a man (Bonds) who is no danger to society. We have a man (Orza) who helped negotiate the confidentiality of the 2003 tests being almost the first to violate its principles.
Maybe we should all come to our senses and reach some moral compromise on this issue. I think we should use 2003 as a moral dividing line. Any PED\'s usage that happened before that date is to be ignored. No going back prior to that date and conducting a witch hunt. That\'s when MLB and MLBPA established there was a problem and began to seriously test for it.
Otherwise for the sake of records and HoF balloting we may just as well write off the 1990\'s as if they didn\'t happen. No matter who you are or what you assert any and all performance in the 1990\'s will be ignored. Sure some guys were clean, but who were they and can you prove it??
The crime is Kent being in the HoF and Lou Whitaker not even on the ballot.
We certainly appreciate you sharing your stereotypical politic views. I am sure the conservatives in the crowd will appreciate you saying they see \"the big picture\" while you are mired in the details.
All that was objected to here was the selection of a highly partisan political person. I don\'t care whether it was him or his conservative twin brother. Neither would have been a good choice.
And calling Olberman a baseball analyst is incorrect. He has never done that. He was a sportscaster on a nightly show that reported the scores and news. In no meaningful way did he provide analysis.
Frankly, I don\'t care. I registered a mild approbation on the editor\'s choice for the writer of the foreword and got censored. If you will look you will see that only people who objected to Olberman\'s selection were treated similarly. Whether it was the editor\'s directly or not it still indicates a clear case sense of editorial intent.
Wow, I can\'t believe this. I voice my objection to Olberman and I get censored??
Ah well, all is not lost. I just cancelled my order for the BP Annual.
Olberman has left his baseball cred at the altar of distorted political commentary.
One has to wonder just how long the internet can remain \"free\". Not everything can be paid for by advertising. ESPN, BP, BA, etc., all charge fees if you want to see the good stuff. And why not. They have worked hard to create a product and you should be willing to pay for it if you desire it.
As a newspaper subscriber for the last 40 years I will greatly miss them when they go. Nothing beats sitting down in the evening with my pipe and reading the paper.
I have been very disappointed in Hot Stove myself. Any show that purports that Mitch Williams and Joe Magrane know bupkus about anything is highly suspect. And their insiders don\'t seem to have the inside skinny on anything. Granted once the teams and players get more comfortable with them that could change. Reynolds does have a better style of palaver than the others, but he is the most experienced of the group. He is also a big fan of \"locker room chemistry\" over performance analysis.
Considering the MLB network is created by MLB itself why would you expect then you bare their dirty laundry on air?? However, consistent with BP\'s non-stop \"Go Union\" attitude, I guess someone had to bring it up.
I am not sure what the future holds for the MLB Network. It has the possibility of being a viable alternative BB2N which is desperately needed. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because of the resounding success MLB has had with its MLBAM offerings.
This is exciting news for all of us. My congratulations to Will and Christina. Hopefully more BP writers will be admitted.
I don\'t think there will be a lot of quarreling about these choices.
I was glad to see the voters recognized how well Aviles performed this year.
The reason none of the participants had ever heard of such a rule is that technically it doesn\'t exist. Also, this situation has never occurred. As not their has never been a WS game that didn\'t go at least 9 innings. But, do any of you seriously doubt the reasonableness of what Selig said he would have done?? Are you so mired in the hatred of all things Bud that you can\'t see that you have to play a full game to decide a WS championship??
You can argue about the wisdom of playing the game, but not the idea that it has to be a regulation length game. At the time they decided they to play the game the weather forecast for Tuesday was even worse than what they were dealing with.
I suppose you could argue that the WS should be played in neutral site domed venues.
I really liked the fact that the umpires let the Dodgers get there retaliation in before issuing the warning. This is how it should be done. And to encourage this umpires should give a team a chance to retaliate. And MLB should encourage it by only suspending players who charge the mound. Leave the pitcher in the game.
I know Martin has no complaint about the pitch that hit him last night nor the \"chin music\" he got in his next at bat. He didn\'t move an inch on the breaking ball that hit him. And he moved into the high-and-tight pitch.
Victorino should \"man up\", too. All he had to do was get back in the batter\'s box and everything blows over. But, no, he has to make a federal production of it.
So, Manny hit well during the two months prior to being dumped is the rationale we are using here to say he didn\'t quit on the team?? Well, heck, we best usher Joe Jackson into the HoF because he sure hit well during the 1919 World Series.
Joe may be fine with having a player on his team whose best effort to get to first base on ground balls could be best described as a \"slow mosey\" and who offers all the defensive interest of a rhododendron, but I am not.
Manny wanted out of Boston so he could get out of his option years and get a contract that will pay him more total money. And he did what it took to get it done. Let\'s not sugar coat this. He willingly signed a contract with Boston and when it became in his best financial interest to get that contract he took the low road. Do you think he would have offered the Red Sox an out if his performance had sucked??
To paraphrase the musical \"Evita\", \"Don\'t cry for me Bostonians\" and they haven\'t. The lack of defense of Manny by his former teammates is damnation by silence. And it is of the highest order.
The only thing Joe has right is that Tim McCarver may be the worst baseball announcer/interviewer/analyst in the history of the game.
\"Protection\" is so intuitively sensible that it is hard to believe otherwise. It simply makes sense that pitchers would go to extra effort to be sure they didn\'t walk a hitter who has a great hitter behind them. Particularly with two out and men already on base.
It could be worse. Keith \"Lefty\" Olberman could be writing here.
You hate to see any dead tree outfit bite the dust. I swear to God if I couldn\'t sit down and unwind by reading the paper every night I would just chuck all. Even if it is getting harder and harder to find a paper that isn\'t written by the \"Blame America First\" crowd or the \"Neanderthals\".
Nice to see Aviles get some love. I\'ll be shocked if the BBWAA even knows he is a live.
The season\'s not even over yet and we are already worrying about the lowly Yankees. Sheesh.
I think we all know that BP never heard of a Union grievance they didn\'t think came from On High Itself. This grievance has nothing to do with draft. It is all about power. They got their noses rubbed in the dirt over the PED\'s thing and are simply looking for some payback.
How about a simple solution like:
1) Pedro either signs the contract or goes back into the 2009 pool. All other contracts are considered as acceptable.
2) MLB pays $2M into a charity of the Union\'s choosing.
3) Change the reporting procedure to include notification of MLBPA of an agreed upon contract. They can then be the monitors of the deadline.