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The G's offseason was pretty boring, but that's because the needs were fairly simple. My one disappointment is signing Tejada. I thought it was an unfortunate but excusable reaction to a thin market. But Hardy and Ryan were traded for essentially nothing. I would much rather have either of those guys than Tejada. Miggy doesn't have a lot left in his bat, and both those guys play a much better shortstop than Tejada does.
Other than that, I really have nothing to say. I would have loved for us to snag Werth, but not at the price he commanded.
What's the rationale for moving DeShields to 2nd, if he's projected as a good CFer? Seems like his offensive skill set would play at either position, and if you can 'bank' on him being a plus defender in CF why mess with that?
Crawford scares me. He doesn't have a ton of power, nor does he walk much. So much of his value lies in his legs, I'd be nervous about locking him up for 5+ years beginning with his age 30 season. The 4-7th years of his deal could end up looking ugly for whatever team signs him. Given that Werth will probably sign a shorter contract and has better 'old player' skills, I think I'd rather sign him if we are making a big splash with an OFer. Werth has power, walks twice as much as Crawford, and plays decent OF defense.
If Huff would take a One year deal with a one year option, I'd jump on that. Try and get one more usable year out of the guy, and if he isn't performing, plug in Belt. If he won't come back on a one year deal, then it's Panda or Belt.
Sounds like the Giants are taking a hard line with Pablo's conditioning, and I think it's the right approach. Tell him that if he gets fit-ish and plays okay in ST the job is his, with DeRosa in a super utility role. If he comes into ST out of shape, start the year with DeRosa at the hot corner.
I would love to see Rowand gone, but how are they going to move him to a team in Philly that already seems to be near it's payroll max?
I think you're selling short on Belt's OBP abilities. The guy drew 93 walks in 595 PA's. Frankly, I'm more confident he'll post a .400 OBP than a .500 slugging in the majors. I think Belt is more likely to be a .300/.400/.450 guy than a .300/.350/.500.
But me, I'm hoping for that magic .300/.400/.500...
Am I crazy for wanting to squeeze one more season out of Huff at 1B with Belt in LF? Of the potential returning Giants OFers, who is there to be excited about besides Torres? Burrel will probably want to get paid and Rowand and Schierholtz are PH/defensive replacements only. Which leaves an OF of Ross and Torres next year. Seems like Belt could slot in at LF and we could maybe get a few more productive PAs out of Huff.
And as a Giants fan, I'll pass on Moyer, thanks. Much respect to the guy, though. What a beast.
It's odd what a few years will do for your perception of a manager. I've been a Giants fan since ever since, and in 2008/early 2009 was no fan of Bochy at all. It seemed that he made the wrong decision with his relievers every time out, and made some odd lineups. I still second guess some of his lineup decisions, but he's been miles better with the bullpen this year. So much so that I wonder if his problem in 2008 was having too many Jack Taschner, Vinnie Chulk, and Tyler Walker's rostered. I guess it's easy to look good when Guillermo Mota is the worst option in your pen.
So what's the current thinking on Culberson's ceiling? This year was certainly something of a breakout season for him, and he's looking even better (albeit in a ridiculously SSS) in the AFL. And how is his defense at the Keystone?
Lincecum wasn't at his best, but two hits off the legs is a bit fluky.
That's a really interesting idea. Might be hard for the fan base to stomach, though...?
Awesome. As a Giants fan, watching Huff this year has been an extremely pleasant surprise. I really wondered whether we'd get his 2009, his 2008, or something near his career line.
I didn't think he'd be this good, but he's been a ton of fun to watch.
As a Giants fan, I can't help but be a bit more optimistic about Bowker than you are. (And just a tiny bit sorry to see him go.)
His first stint in the majors was underwhelming. But his tryout this season, after his hot 2009 in the minors was....82 AB's. I don't know if he is a AAAA guy destined for a career as a AAA slugger or if he could be Nelson Cruz or Jorge Cantu or something. But I'm pretty sure it takes more than 82 AB's to tell. At least we'll get a chance to see, with him playing for the Pirates.
The second chart lists the Giants as the second biggest loser behind the Rockies. Since they appear in the 'biggest gainer' section, shouldn't this be the Tigers, the team you talk about in the 'biggest losers' portion of the text?
This was my reaction, almost exactly. I looked at the names the Dbacks were getting back and said....'who?' As a Giants fan, it's nice to know that there will be at least one punching bag in the NLW. But man, I think Arizona got completely fleeced.
Interesting. I hadn't paid much attention to Jaso, aside from thinking 'where did this guy come from?' when looking at box scores.
He sounds like a good guy, though. I like what he said about a person's decisions in life, rather than play, earning them his respect. Good stuff. Best of luck to the guy.
And I forgot to add that the Dodgers have outperformed their pythagorean...I'm not a believer, yet.
Maybe my memory is off, but I seem to remember most of the preseason projections pegging the Dodgers to win the West.
But frankly, I don't think their run prevention is good enough to win the NLW. I think the Padres, Rockies, and Giants (who are underperforming their pythagorean record by a bunch) are all better teams. LA's rotation and bullpen are so shaky right now-they need at least one starter and two relievers to start pitching more consistently for me to think they have a chance.
Back to Belt for a moment-how is his defense at first? Because if he is an excellent defender on top of his hitting/OBP skills, I think I could live without much power...
Charlie Culberson. Former sandwich pick is putting up an impressive season at A+. BABIP is a bit high, but LD rate is improved, and he has already hit more homers this season than his entire minors career before this year...Should I believe?
Not to nitpick, but...wasn't last night's homer Brandon Belt's second in the Eastern League?
Also, are scouts still projecting Tommy Joseph as a first baseman, rather than a Catcher?
Crawford was the first guy who popped into my mind as well. He had a BABIP-inflated stat line at High A, so the Giants moved him to AA pretty early in the year, where he crashed and burned pretty spectacularly. He's doing better there this year, but still not looking great.
The plate discipline and walk rate is a big difference between Belt and Crawford however; this gives me some hope that Belt can hold his own better once he's promoted.
Looking forward to the draft and joining you in the live chat. If the Giants are focused on college bats, what is the chance that they nab Colon if he falls that far? Just curious. I'm hoping they grab Colon, Brentz, or Gyorko; I haven't made up my mind which of them I like best. They seem like very different versions of the 'polished college position player'.
In an milb.com interview with Bumgarner, he said he'd been working on a cutter, and has thrown it in the last two games.
"The SF domination is flukey, but I do feel at this point SD and SF are nearly identical teams, though SD plays better defense."
As a Giants homer, I'm not quite ready to believe that the Padres have starters to match the Giants. Leblanc is better than Wellemeyer, but I think the Giants front four is better. Latos is a stud, though.
I think your team D makes your pitching look a bit better than it is.
Hey Kevin-what in particular makes you think Surkamp could be a back end rotation piece, rather than say Kevin Pucetas take 2?
Could Belt turn into a Michael Taylor type, with 20 homer potential by virtue of size and strength alone? Or is even that hoping for too much?
Because if he is a .300/.400 guy year in year out, 20 homers at 1st would be plenty...
I also really like that 10:20 K:BB ratio.
Any thoughts on Brandon Belt? He's putting up silly numbers for the SJ Giants (.443/.532/.705). He has a .440 BABIP, but when you assume a BABIP regression to reasonable levels his numbers will still be good. Also, 21% line drive rate and...get this...4:12 K:BB ratio in 77 PA's.
Not much hype about the kid before the season, but is it safe to think of Belt as at least some kind of prospect?
I could be wrong, but I would have sworn that Jacob Turner went about, or, 260 picks higher than 269th?
I was hoping that Posey would get the starting job next year too.
"Even if Buster isn't ready hitting-wise, his OPS would likely be at or close to Bengie Molina's from this season."
I agree, and you have to think that (even in his first season) Buster could put up a league average OBP. Which would be pretty awesome, after this season.
Velez is an odd one. He's looked mostly lost in his prior go-rounds in the majors, but since being recalled from his recent stint at AAA, he's looked downright...competent. He hasn't made any really boneheaded plays in the field, and he's putting together AB's where doesn't close his eyes and hack, but actually takes a few pitches.
He may never be a started, but he's almost starting to look like a decent OF option off the bench.
That's what it's like being a Giants fan, btw. You get excited when your org develops a position player who can 'almost' play.
I'm a Giants fan. I don't mind getting Freddy Sanchez, but I hate how badly we overpaid for him. Hopefully, Sabean isn't re-signed at the end of the year. Get someone young, numerical, and comitted to building a championship franchise.
I'm convinced that this is Sabean trying to make a playoff run to save his job.
Thanks much for the reply!
I agree that the three run difference projected between the Giants and Dodgers is a push. But i have to admit I thought the Dodgers would lag significantly behind both the Giants and Dbacks.
Looking at the Pitchers another way, the total VORP of the 5 Rotation guys, spot starters, and closers+Set-up+mid-relief is: 221.4 for the Dbacks, 192.1 for the Giants, and 179.5 Dodgers. (I didn't think the Dbacks would be so far ahead of the Giants-interesting.) Given that the Dodgers have the better relief crew, I'll grant that they may outperform their pythagorean expectation, but having the best (or near best) run prevention in the division still seems unlikely-is their defense really that far ahead of the Giants and Diamondbacks?
I don't mind the projection of the Dodgers winning the West, I just think it will be on the strength of their offense.
Again, thanks so much for the interesting discussion.
Pleasantly surprised to see that my Giants aren't in the bottom ten.
My main quibble would be in the NL West. I don't understand how the Dodgers are projected to have the fewest RA in the division. Both the Giants AND Dbacks have a much better rotation than the Dodgers, who I admit have the superior bullpen. In terms of Park effects, AT&T is at least as bad as, if not worse than Chavez LAtrine in terms of run suppression.
So is LA's defense that much better than the DBacks or Giants? I can think of several defensive liabilities on both the Dodgers and Giants squad, and I don't know the snakes as well.
Any idea where the Dodgers' impressively low RA is coming from?
I have to admit, I\'m not a huge fan or Reyes second. Here\'s why: In the mock drafts I\'ve done, HanRam, Reyes, and Rollins go in the first round. But Stephen Drew and JJ Hardy fall a long way, and can usually be had between rounds 7-10.
So if you spend the second pick on Pujols, you could have an infield of: Pujols, Aramis Ramirez (3rd round, usually) and JJ Hardy.
Or you could have David Wright, Berkman/Morneau/Adrian Gonzalez, Stephen Drew.
To my mind, once HanRam is gone, SS isn\'t worth a first round pick.
I was going to say the same thing. Schierholtz is one of the few ML ready prospects that SF fans like myself are crossing our fingers about-most of our \'blue chips\' are in the low minors. In his two AAA years, Nate\'s OPS has been well over .900, and he has a bunch of assists from RF.
Frankly, I wish someone would save us from Rowand. Trade him, slide Winn over to CF, leave Lewis in LF, and let Schierholtz start in RF.
What do you have against Nate, Joe?