CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
Seems like a bit of an optimistic take. Braun, Davis and Fiers projected WARP is a bit too high.
I would love to see what the numbers would be for Pedro Martinez, even though he is pretty modern, but maybe a generation too late.
His actual salary was about $145 million, but in looking at Koufax above, and the fact that he had a career nearly twice as long, I would assume he has to be in the $700 million range.
I JUST read the Michael Lorenzen report in my BA Prospect Handbook and noticed he is having a very good year in AA right now. You can imagine my joy this AM finding a scouting report on him here.
I would have to assume a graduation to AAA at some point this season with a call up in '15 with a firm spot in the rotation in 2 years. Even quicker if they needed a more reliable 8th inning option.
I was thinking either Wong or Piscotty if you are only trying to get Price, but Wong for Zobrist straight up works probably even if you dont get Price.
Cardinals deal should be Martinez, Piscotty and Cooney.
Machado...I see nothing wrong with what he did. A family member of mine, who has been in the game at many different levels for over 40 years used to say that pitchers can throw ab batters but he batter response is to throw the bat right back. He was thrown at, and he responded accordingly.
normalized on account of PED use.
I just don't get how it is possible to do that. When you have 50 or so umpires out there who can make a call a certain way one day, and then a completely different way the next.
And then, if you are able to predict it somehow, I just don't see how it can translate into as much value as they claim it does.
BTW, love the trade calculator, I still love using it.
I'm sorry but the whole pitch framing adding value argument is like adjusting your personal financial budget on the likelihood of a cashier giving you the wrong change, or your employer incorrectly paying you the wrong amount.
I am not discounting the fact that pitch framing is a valuable skill for catchers to have but its based on the subjective error of an umpire.
He might get it next year when he is in a different line of work.
I have no axe to grind at all, but I used to work in a scouting capacity with the Phillies and simply makes me sad how he drove that part of the organization into the ground.
Doesn't matter too much, because you said "mattered most"
It would only matter at all if this were the Phillies of 5 years ago with younger Howard, Utley and Rollins.
I would really love to see the Padres drop a mid range salary on Jimenez and turn themselves into real contenders this year.
What an awful system. Hopefully the FO is getting ready for a massive rebuild. Hangier and Nelson are the only guys on the list with any realistic hope of being contributors in the future.
Loved Swihart at the time of his draft and still do. Will always feel that the Brewers made a tremendous mistake with that draft and their two picks and the two guys the Sox took were the guys they (Brewers) should have taken that year.
What does Pecota think if Shelby Miller is the starting pitcher?
Bet the Brewers are thrilled that they passed him over for Jed Bradley.
Ugh, pitch framing. I know this is the new darling stat for Stat geeks, but its just not a reliable method to project value onto a catcher. Unless you are inside of the head of the umpire, who makes a judgement call on a subjective basis on an objective strike zone.
You would need to create an "umpire" factor to somehow quantify this subjective call, much like park factors. At least with park factors, the wall distance doesnt change from day to day. An umpires strike zone may.
Add to it that you are trying to add value to something in which a subjective judgement call was made in error. Just toooooooo noisy of a data set to make any sort of conclusion. There is also the part where a catcher can get penalized simply because he is catching a pitcher with bad command/control....its a lot like the old CERA stat that was tried.
Jonathan Lucroy is good at framing pitches, but he is a below average catcher. His arm isnt very good, and his footwork behind home plate is sub par. This is why Catcher defense is so difficult to address because a big part of what goes into the position defensively is his ability to move smoothly to get pitches, get into position to make throws and catch, calling a game, etc.
There isnt a catcher in the world that was drafted or developed because of his pitch framing ability.
The keys to Milwaukee's Sudden success? A lot of luck, unforced errors by their opponents, and an unsustainable run of success in extra inning games, one run games, and games won in their last at bat. not to mention the fact that their last 4 have come against the Cubs and Padres.
This is still a .500 team at best.
Some guys I would like to hear about in the EL include Rafael Montero in Binghampton, Danny Santana at New Britain, And John Stilson and Marcus Stroman in New Hampshire. And then on the Western part of the league I would include these guys among "must sees": Joe Panik in Richmond, Tyler Collins in Erie, DEFINITELY Kevin Gausman, probably the highest ranked prospect in the league, in Bowie, another big name would be Anthony Rendon in Harrisburg, his teammates Brian Goodwin and Sammy Solis, and finally Ronny Rodriguez and Jesus Aguilar at Akron.
I think if I were going to rate the "must see" guys in the league, Bogaertz, Gausman and Rendon would top the list.
Surprisingly, DM's quote was a lie. Because according to Pecota, the Brewers are actually WORSE now than before they signed Lohse.
"We are better today than we were yesterday"...No Doug, you are exactly the same as you were yesterday, and you are $11 million poorer, and without a draft pick until the mid 50s this year. Time to start scouting for that retirement home in Arizona, because two more years of what you have on the field now will lead to your exit from Milwaukee.
I think the toughest bet here is on the Brewers. I would put them at 80 wins.
As for the White Sox, i do not see a dramatic drop off for them this year and if I were a betting man, personally would go with the over. i feel they may even be able to challenge the Tigers.
He was still on the juice.
Quite amazed you have Tyler Thornburg on the list. From initial impressions and impressions among scouts, he seems destined for the bullpen. I was not at all impressed with his debut last year, and felt he had a ton of work to do before proving he was bound for the rotation, or worthy of top prospect status.
They arent going to put up as many runs as they did last year. Braun is off of his cycle, Aoki, Ramirez and Hart will start to age, and Lucroy will regress. They are still projected as a top 10 team in offense.
The offense wont be the problem this year, and it wont be the bullpen, the starting pitching will make this a mediocre tema.
Agreed that this system is a bit odd for the Jays. If you look at ZIPS, the Jays are the clear run away favorite for the AL East with the Yankees in 3rd, Sox last.
This Blue Jay team is at least a 90 win team if not 100 with full health from everyone.
79 wins is right in ling with what I would expect from this team. Favorite time of year for projections! Can't wait for my BP annual to arrive to zero in on what I see for this team, and the league as whole.
Not as tarrible as it once was, but to call it average would be like putting lipstick on a pig.
See also: Josh Collmenter
Is it z snarky comment? Yes, but it is true.
As I note below, I think the cloud of suspicion with Braun wont weigh very heavily, but he did fail a drug test, and he did get off on a technicality. Some voters may not like that.
Injury will be the only thing that keeps him out. Even with the recent Hall vote excluding PED users, any bias voters have toward him due to his positive PED test will not be enough to keep him out (sans injury).
The Macomb daily? How in the heck do some of these windbags get to vote for the Hall of Fame? The standards for the BBWWAA are obviously infinitely lower than that which these guys are holding the players to for entrance to the Hall.
My whole take is that for Bonds/Clemens, they were HOF'ers before they allegedly starting using, so they are Hall worthy. Add to it that it wasnt against rhe rules, it should be a no brainer.
But for guys like Piazza, Sosa and McGwire, their entire careers are the benefit of using. No vote for any of them.
And for Biggio, why he didnt get in this year is beyond me. Its definitely time to Euthanize some of the people who have the ability to vote people into the Hall.
You forget to mention all of the games against the Pirates in that span. I wouldnt use this 2nd half surge as a reason for hope for 2013 for the Milwaukee Brewers. Fiers, Rogers and Estrada have all over performed excessively, Lucroy has turned into a nice little player but has been worshipping at the alter of BABIP all season, and Ramirez, Hart and Aoki wont be getting any younger. With no big names out there on the FA pitching market, the Brewers look a lot like a league average team to me for 2013. Lucky for them MLB is adopting the NHL playoff system, and they will always have a "chance".
Actually, the take away I get from this article, and it was a great one I might add, is that Ryan Braun* is over rated, and that any hardware that he has won he did not deserve.
VERY interesting study. But to claim that BJ Surhoff was a more valuable pick than Will Clark, from the same dradt class and only one pick apart, makes me a little weary of it.
I agree that Braun got off on the technicality. And there is a problem with the league.
But the thing that gets fans upset is the fact that Braun is guilty of this baseball sin, and he got away with it. These leaks are the sort of thing which lead to justice being done in the future in the game, and although it sort of stinks for Braun (his own fault really), the fans and the game need to keep an accounting of people who break its rules.
The outrage fans will feel towards Braun will be because he cheated (perhaps unknowingly) and they wont really care about the confidentiality issue.
Axford has historically high walk rates during his career. Dont forget his very bad injury history to go along with his horrible mechanics. His season last year was a perfect case scenario for him
To Joe: I orded my annual today from Amazon and the expected ship date was in the middle of March. I have received it the past three years in late February.
Good to know.
Any reason why the annual is coming so late this year? Is the Excel spreadsheet for PECOTA coming soon?
You can get it on explorer but it doesnt allow you to do certain things.
The thing I found most interesting is that if Fielder was a Cub last year, he would have hit 7 more HR.
Another interesting point was that in the Kemp vs Braun debate (on which I was of the side that felt Kemp more deserved the MVP than Braun), Braun would have hit 7 fewer HR if he were a Dodger, and Kemp would have hit 3 more HR as a Brewer. Kemp was the better player.
Selig is such a buffoon. How he feels the draft reshaping gives small market teams an advantage only proves how out of touch he really is. He was only annoyed to the point that his former team doesnt overspend in the draft as a small market team and felt that this was a key point to address.
Welcome to the Roman Colesium, or Baseball at Miller Park.
The article mentions in a couple of places "contenders for years to come"....this is not really true, since both Greinke and Marcum are Free Agents after 2012. At best they will contend next year before having a pretty dramatic fall off.
They'll need Adam Lind on hand to include in a package for Joey Votto (sic).
You might be confusing bad defense with BABIP. Not one of those 4 plays you mention would be one I would characterize as "bad defense".
The Morgan and Hart slides are just plays they couldnt get to after long runs, it happens. Hairston's play was the result of the hit and run, and the Morgan Splat was a ball hit about 800 mph.
Nor really anything that could have been done to change the fortunes on those plays for the Brewers.
Not really commenting on the personal issues being the same, but the intensity displayed by both, in that they have both been at times, percieved as underachievers, or lacked enthusiasm.
The words "flexibility" and "Bud Selig" dont really know how to exist in the same sentence.
The fact that his league is trying to capitalize on the 9/11 date with an official cap for $40 a pop shouldnt surprise anyone coming from the most successful used car salesman in history.
The thing I would worry about with Upton, although not to the same extent, could be a repeat of the Elijah Dukes situation. Whatever happened to that guy?
According to Rick Schlesinger, the COO of the team:
Well, you have to realize the story is written by someone from deadspin first off. And your last statement doesnt really hold true at all. Look at the Brewers....3 million fans this year, a certain playoff spot, and they will probably lose money this year.
I do not agree with the "sarcastic" premise of the story, but he makes a great point about Selig and cheap (two words that should be mutually inclusive), and how in the end it pays off.
Great piece of work.
I dont think any evaluation of this hot Milwaukee Brewer team would be complete without looking at luck. BABIP, xFIP and 1st 2nd and 3rd Pythagorean W-L all show a tremendous amoutn of luck in the past 5 weeks.
Good team, but also very lucky.
Nice work on the Brewers. I'd love to see some work on the luck that they have been the benefactors of during the last month. Really bad opponents, High FIP - ERA and low BABIP against for the pitching staff.
Its not so hard to "lose" talent, when you never really had any to begin with.
Although I agree that there is a perception difference betwen the NL Central and the rest of the league, the one about bad defense isnt very accurate (not slamming article here Larry, just stating general perception problem).
If you look at the last 3 years for defensive statistics for individuals, there is a group of about 3 who could be considered elite in Utley, Zimmerman and Bourn, when you go one level down, to "very good" there are just as many NL Central guys over that time as NL East players....Bourn, Pence, Phillips, Soriano.
The Brewer defense will be horrendous this year, and my suspicion is that its going to make those two big pitching acquisitions look a little less shiny by years end as a result. Add to it that that will probably be the thing that keeps that team out of the playoffs. My suspicion is that the whole package will be the thing that wins the Central (i.e. Reds).
I agree with Jay Taylors comment above. A win in April is just as valuable as a win in September, isnt it?
The way I see it, the Brewers need every win possible this year to have a shot, any DL time or 1 run losses, or bullpen blow ups is magnified by the fact that its going to be a very close race this year in the NL Central.
And with Greinke, its not just 3 starts, lets not forget the 5 or 6 weeks of preparation time he is missing in Spring Training. I would say Mid May is when he is up to par, so its more like 5 or 6 starts that the Brewers are effected.
Even if Weeks performs at the bottom of his projections during the life of the contact the Brewers will get their money's worth, and thats a good deal if you ask me.
If Weeks does start to regress this year as PECOTA projects though, this contract could start to look very bad very fast.
Nice article. From what PECOTA is saying, I've got them in line for about 99 wins this year, given the across the board above average pitching staff.
I dont think Baker will take any of your recommendations to heart, and I wouldnt be shocked to see Renteria playing 120 games and hitting 2nd all year.
Was shocked when I saw what Pecota had in store for Weeks....but the article makes sense. If Weeks truly regresses as you guys think (heck even if its only half as bad) the Brewers have a hard time making the playoffs given what Pecota has projected for the Reds and Cardinals.
I wouldnt be shocked at all to see him drop from his 6 WAR number or whatever it was to below 2. That was a HUGE overperformance.
Same goes for Huff, although not to the same extent.
And I am somewhat of a Giants fan.
Dratted content filter at work!!!!
Cant wait for my book to arrive next week so that I can finally pin down my prediction for the '11 Brewers.
If Edmonds takes time away from Colby Rasmus, Cardinal fans should revolt and run Tony LaRussa out of town on a rail.
I have a suspicion that Lawrie will crack the top 20 in BA's top 100 prospects list. Highest Gamel ever got was 38, so there is a bit of a difference.
With Gamel though, the organization pretty much screwed him, Macha was never very fond of him, and made him ride the bench for 3 months in 2009, wasting valuable MiLB at bats and development time.
And with both players, I believe that the bat will carry their value. They probably both wind up as corner OF, so even if Lawrie isnt a 2B, I would put his value as high as $25 mil.
Lawrie is a RF.
Love the comment from Anthopolous regarding the Marcum for Lawrie trade...its a smart approach for a small market team, and the right one. In direct contrast to the comment from Melvin/Attanasio....
The Brewers are on the quick path to very bad records for a long time with the approach they use of "going all in" so often. No small market team has been successful with this strategy and they probably wont be the first.
Just some hair splitting here, but I put an extra win at 4.5 mil and the only way this deal works out in favor for the Brewers, is if he repeats his 3.5 numbers for 2 straight years, which I dont think he will.
I like Marcum. I think he is a nice pitcher, but hes a solid #3 at best, and it doesnt really drastically improve the Brewers playoff chances.
If the Brewers were so willing to unload Lawrie, and do it with Toronto, the better player to pick up would have been Brandon Morrow. You get him for a year longer than Marcum, and he is more likely to repeat his numbers from 2010.
What the Brewers, its GM and owner particularly, did here was give up the best trading chip in the organization for a #3 starter. Thats not very good. It improves the team by 3 wins, big deal. Now they are a .500 team, and for what? Your top prospect gone, and money out of your pocket, and less leverage down the road when trading Lawrie may actually ahve brought you something significant back in return.
The Brewers dont need to "win now", they need to develop a long term strategy of developing in house, premium talent. That's never going to happen with Doug Melvin in charge, and unless someone hits Mark Attanasio over the head with a hard bound copy of Moneyball, while he is the owner it proably wont happen either.
Marcum is a nice player. Id put him up at 2.5 WAR for his 2 years with the Brewers each, and maybe worth another $2.5 mil for draft picks. He's going to probably be paid somewhere around $10 mil in salary over those 2 years, so he's worth about $13 million.
Lawrie is a top 10 bat. He is most likely going to hit and there is a good chance he can be an all star RF. His value of $25 million was arrived at by someone a heck of a lot smarter than me (Victor Wong of The Hardball Times), and I think he is a safe "bet" that the Brewers lost big on, in pursuing this pipe dream of a 2011 playoff spot.
Although I agree with the point made regarding open market value for pitching, I feel that Doug Melvin (big surprise) got screwed in this deal. He gave up a $25 million bat for a $10 million arm.
Completely agree on all points...
Just like my pegs to fit into the appropriate holes.
I would think that with a 50 Change, albeit with plus command, that he profiles more as a #3 with upside of a #2, than an Ace? Much like a Matt Cain.
I like what the Brewers offered him. I have been quite critical of the Brewer scouting department over the years, but I liked them picking Covey, and I like that they gave him the opportunity to get himself in shape before reporting to Fall Workouts.
I have lived my entire life with diabetes and am a little bit surprised with what Covey did. He could have easily had himself in shape within 6 months and ready for Spring training. The money he was reportedly offered, or looking for before all of this came out ($2 million) is never going to be there again after the next cba. That money would have been a nice assurance no matter the outcome of his situation, more than enough to attend college later in life.
The "sign him to an extension" thought regarding a Fielder trade is a moot point. The question as to whether or not the receiving team can or will try to extend him, has nothing to do with what the Brewers should expect in return, or who they might deal with in this situation. Scott Boras isnt going to allow Fielder to sign an extension, no matter where he goes, so the point is worthless.
Fielder should have been traded to the Rays for Colome, Jake McGee, Nick Barnese and a PTBNL. Whether or not the Rays put forth an offer like this we cant know, but they could afford to do it, and would have loved to have Fielder in their lineup for this years playoffs. Doug Melvin would not have accepted the deal because he has the delusion, as does his owner, that they can win next year. But it would have been the right sort of move.
And I completely agree with the assessment made in the article regarding off season vs trade deadline deal. Any team that wants him for next year, would want him now. And a team like the Rays could use him until seasons end throught he playoffs, and then trade him again in the offseason for more prospects, and not have to worry about paying him his $16 million arb award.
Hellickson/Davis issue and Milwaukee for Fielder/Hart. I think the chance is there for the Rays to put Hellickson in the rotation and deal Davis to Milwauke for Hart straight up, or Davis and a guy like Colome for Fielder. On the Fielder end, they would probably just rent him for a playoff bid and then turn right around and trade him during the offseason for 3 prospects.
Ive seen Ranaudo, Harvey, Wimmers and Workman all linked to the Brewers in other places. Not one of these guys appeal to me at #14 for them. They definitely need pitching, but I feel their better play would be for Cole or Allie (if available). If one of those college arms does get picked by them, I will continue to be confounded by the philosophy in place in that organization, because from where I am sitting its not one to improve the team.
No but Doug Melvin should have been able to assume that Hoffman's skills might decline in his age 42 season, before offering him a new contract with an option and buyout for a 2nd year.
Also, John, whats the source that Attanasio "reportedly" wants to replace Macha with Randolph?
Pecota hates walks, and it puts a big emphasis on the 2nd half of the previous season.
I dont think Gallardo will drop off as much as they think, but if he doesnt clean up his walk rates, he's never going to be the ace everyone in Milwaukee hopes he will be.
All in all the projection is a bit pessimistic to me, but not completely out of the realm of possibility.
What is the JAWS score for Dale Murhpy, and any chance that it will be added as a column to the DT Cards?
If I take his peak x 2 that gives 84.8 plus his 46 WARP divided by 2 equals 65.4. Must be doing some math poorly here, or misunderstanding.
Personally I think that Murphys peak is as good as any HOFer, but the end of his career really hurts. Any thoughts on Murphy and why he hasnt gotten much love from the BBWAA, especially since he was always percieved as a nice guy (e.g. Puckett).
They could pursue Fielder too. And not have to give up Tillman or Matusz. I bet a deal of Arrieta, Mickolio, Snyder and Britton could get it done.