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What about a meatball sandwich? Sandwich is right there in the name, but lord help your shirt if you eat one with more than one open side...
One thing I think I'm seeing, but can't quite tell from the camera angles - on the good frames of low pitches, the catchers start with their glove relatively close to their body, then reach out and down to catch it. On the last Doumit play, he starts with his arm out, then levers it down to catch it. From the POV of the ump, the former would look more like reaching forward into the zone, while the latter looks more like dropping out of it. Might have to take my kid out later and stand behind him to watch what both ways look like from the ump POV...
Maybe a dumb question, but if the problem with absolute runs is difference in playing time, what's the problem with absolute runs per plate appearance?
Wring. You wring out the washcloth, but if its overwrought, it's bad for the cloth. That's what I thought, anyway.
For fun, I switched the before and after columns in your chart to see if I could build a narrative around the opposite result. In that world, the first two innings are still a push. The 3rd and 4th are worse, since the starters are getting tired after the lost rest day. The 5th is better because they're bringing in a shiny new reliever, but then the 6th and 7th get worse because that reliever is getting overstretched. Then the 8th gets another new reliever, so improves again.
Is it a poor economic decision, though? We can't know. If Lucas Giolito and his popped elbow were picked eight picks later and signed for $4M - isn't that Appel's most likely downside? Because from this article (I haven't read much more), that's still better than the $3.8M he turned down. Especially since he's living and eating for free in beautiful Palo Alto for that extra year.
Sure we'd have all likely gone with the bird in the hand and $3.8M, but that's a personal, subjective risk appetite question. If anything, his choice implies a lower risk appetite over the long term: he has more confidence in his ability to pitch well for six more months than in his ability to reach free agency as a star in 2020-ish. That seems pretty rational to me.
He'll be proven right or wrong in hindsight and will live with the choice forever. But there's no objective evidence to say his decision was poor in the time he made it.
"Batters in the AL face tougher pitchers"
Is this true? I guess it may be, but I'd never thought of it this way. I'd always thought the AL/NL difference was that pitchers faced 12.5% more "real" batters due to the DH, plus the AL East spending machines consolidates some quality there overall, making winning harder for the rest of the AL. But in focusing just on pitchers, I'd have guessed that the Phillies, Braves, and Giants match up pretty well with any three in the AL, and the rest of the pack in either league doesn't strike me as that imbalanced.
Just caught my eye and made me wonder...
Thanks for all this, though.
Isn't your example of marginal revenue only adding the incremental revenue for those additional three games, though? Even if the owners lose money for those three games, the hope would be that more fans show up all through August and September because more teams are on the bubble. In that case, the three game playoff is a loss leader (loss trailer?) to get more sales during the regular season. The true marginal revenue starts showing up sometime in August, not on October 1.
Your piece in BP2002 on how to win at Coors Field, with an update/response to Rany Jazayerli's countering view later that year. Maybe the humidor renders it moot, but I enjoyed both pieces, and would like to hear more about who was "right", especially with the evidence of subsequent years.
I believe it has to do with where the player defected to and established residency; if they go to the DR, they're signable as a DR player, while if they defect to Florida, they're a US-based player subject to the draft. Could be wrong, though.