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Can we have a moment of silence for my fantasy team where I drafted Benoit and Mejia for saves and Quackenbush for holds?
Not even 2 days.
For a low-budget team, you’re down a million dollars on a payroll of 80 million while other teams are down a million on 200. Maybe it’s best not to start that arms race. For big-budget teams, why help the low-budget guys identify a cheap source of improving team-controlled talent, the kind of resource that they’ll need to compete with you, when you can just out-spend them?
Great article but both ends of this can't be true.
This is actually an interesting idea for big market teams - if the luxury tax functions as a cap on major league salaries you can still leverage your superior funds by trying out lots of pilot programs in the vein of "a win is worth $5 million". Some of them will succeed and your rivals will either be forced to copy them or will fall behind. Either outcome is good for you because you just leveraged your financial edge. Either you taxed your rivals where they can't afford it or you have an actual edge.
Everyone get working on those ideas - the Yankees need your help!
Thanks - dropped Fieres.
Ok, I'd love to make a move for Straily as he's freely available in my league (12 team mixed - weekly head to head) but would have to drop another starter to pick him up.
My schedule is pretty soft over the next few weeks so I'm not worried about the dead roster spot but which of my current crop of pitchers is worth dropping in favor of Straily:
Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Mike Fieres, Ricky Nolasco, Jamie Garcia, Matt Harvey, Brandon McCarthy, Dillon Gee, Ryan Dempster
We have a bunch of scoring categories for pitching but the bottom line is that if a guy is an actual good pitcher, he'll be good in our league.
Speaking of Beckett, he's now a 2 start starter for week 22 (@COL, ARI).
Where does he stand?
Time to panic on Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana?
How did Jose Bautista have a fly ball for a hit on the pitcher's mound?
"But my study reveals sort of the opposite"
Actually, it goes along with that result very well.
Your study shows that older players are playing at a higher level relative to their potential and are more likely to under perform their indicators if drafted.
The hockey player study shows that being older puts you over a threshold of performance for getting drafted.
Imagine that players have two scores: (1) current performance rating and (2) future performance potential. If you hold 2 constant, as you increase age 1 increases. When drafting teams use 1 to determine if a player is worth taking. In hockey there is a cutoff value for 1. In baseball the draft is larger and there is a lower cutoff value for 1 - large enough that over time the higher 2 value of a same 1 value in a baseball player makes a huge difference. Your study suggests that hockey teams are making the exact same mistake and that there are better hockey players that are undrafted.
No mention of Casey McGehee?
Thanks for the reply.
On the McGehee theme. I'm in a league that counts AVG, H, R, RBI, SB, HR, SLG, OBP, and Ks (head to head). I've got McGehee at 3B and Paul Konerko in my DH spot. Someone in my league has offered me Evan Longoria for Konerko.
Deep rosters (12 teams, 25 man rosters).
Trade worth it? I'd be substituting the best waiver wire hitter for Casey McGehee and trading the production of Konerko for Longoria.
With PitchFX data being available, isn't catcher framing actually quantifiable?
"The increased bullpen usage has also led to managers utilizing more advantageous lefty-vs-lefty and righty-vs-righty matchups as well as receiving the obvious benefit of using fresh arms who need only throw a few pitches."
I'd love to see this in graphic format.
There are 8 possible at bat types (combinations of RP/SP, Pitcher R/L, Batter R/L). It would be interesting to see how the percentage of each changes over time.
If there is a bias against short pitchers in that way you\'d see short pitchers outperforming taller pitchers on average (since the bias creates a stronger filter against the worst short pitchers). I think this actually accounts for why normal / thin is such a strong list: these guys don\'t get chances just because of their build but there\'s not a huge mechanical disadvantage to having the build they have.