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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106875">Max Schrock</a></span>? Future regular, future utility, or future blah? Thanks.
I really enjoy this expert's mock draft with comments. Thanks.
A couple of suggestions. Summarize each expert's picks. Next year, in addition to the combined NL/AL draft, do a 10 round AL and NL only experts mock draft. The AL/NL only draft would result in much deeper selections and I would be very interested in the insights that came with these less obvious choices.
Good article. I play in a keeper auction league where we keep up to half our roster each year. I decided long ago that having a draft plan or set player targets was a waste of time. That plan and those targets were only valid until the first player hit the bidding block. Once bidding starts it is all about the real time market forces of the draft and accurately assessing those forces as soon as possible. And the key as you point out, is to figure out where the bargains will likely result (or in a nod to Michael Lewis, find the undervalued commodity).
Too many team owners bidding practices are driven by the idea of need; I need a 3B so I must pay the going rate to get a good one. I see that all the time in my league and such a rigid approach results in too many at value or overvalued players and few relative bargains that you can carry over to the following year.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100628">Brett Phillips</a></span>? Thought he might make the list.
OK. I knew that. Not my finest moment. Better luck on my next comment.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100628">Brett Phillips</a></span>. Any consideration?
Now how about polling your crack fantasy subscribers on the same questions and doing an article on the consensus picks.
I see no respect for the rebuilt A's. Somehow I think that is just the way <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18911">Billy Beane</a></span> likes it.
This feature is just plain fun and a source of endless discussion as to the merits of the each pick at that slot. I do wish you would use the same parameters to do an AL only and NL only mock draft in addition to the combined league draft. I suspect the choices would be significantly different from the current combined order.
Regarding Wendle, "...the return is light on the upside."
Now read this quote from Ruben Amaro of the Phillies which was in today's Tyler Kepner NY Times column. The context is a discussion of the current trade market.
Per Amaro, "We're a lot more realistic than we were in July, because now you see a pretty great shift. Teams just don't want to give up the talent. They'd rather give up the money than the talent. So we have an understanding of that, and at the same time we have to identify the guys that are still pretty talented and not take a bath."
So RJ, Craig,and Mauricio, given Amaro's assessment, is it possible there is a misreading by many, myself included, on the state of trade market values and specifically on the expected return for Brandon Moss? Note also the rumors about the Samardjza return also seem light. But are they?
Gentlemen. what say you?
Now we need dueling evaluations of who had the best draft and why.
Next year consider doing separate AL/NL only drafts as a f/u to this article. I think it might be fascinating to see how such drafts would play out compared to the joint league draft.
"The A’s lead baseball in walks because they wrote Moneyball."
Harold Reynolds must have penned this comment.
Regarding holds and saves; my league switched to a combined holds and saves category in 2005. Our experience is that saves are a much more reliable outcome than holds. Thus while closers are still the preferred first choice, middle guys can no longer be ignored. Why bother to combine the categories? Two reasons; we wanted to give more value to middle guys and we wanted to rein in the price of closers (auction league) which had become ridiculous. The combined category met our objectives.
Thanks for the review. After checking out and dismissing Intentional Drivel (with Millar the drivelmaster), I wasn't inclined to give CC a shot. Your review changed that. And doesn't Harold Reynolds always say a lot of stupid things?
Why Brett Anderson as a 2012 starter? No way he will be ready to start the season after July 2011 TJ surgery. Isn't it more likely that starter slot will be filled by Outman or Braden? And Harden and McCarthy are both free agents and who knows if the A's will try and resign given their history of injuries.
Some perspective on the "Moneyball" draft; in that same year, 2002, the Cubs, using traditional scouting methods, had 6 picks in the first 62 (the A's had 7 out of the first 67). Their selections were 21 Bobbie Brownlee RHP(unsigned), 32 Luke Hagerty LHP ($1,150,000), 36 Chad Blasko RHP ($1,050,000), 38 Matt Clanton RHP ($875,000), 56 Brian Dopirak 1B ($740,000), and 62 Justin Jones LHP ($625,000).
Moral of the story; finding decent major leaguers, let alone stars, is an inexact science at best no matter what methodology you are using.
Fuentes only mistakes were poor performance and taking his complaint to the press. Bad moves but I doubt this is one guy spouting off. Fuentes has no history as a whiner that I can remember and I bet he said what a lot of others in the clubhouse are thinking or saying privately. It is the manager's job to communicate with his players so they are fully prepared mentally and thus able to maximize their talent. I now have my doubts Geren is doing this. As an A's fan, hopefully this episode improves things rather than makes it worse. In the meantime, Mr. Beane, get some hitters so the pitching staff isn't under the constant pressure of giving up one run and losing. Finally, please, please Andrew Bailey heal fast.
Regarding the star rankings, refine them by ranking as 5.0, 4.5, 4.0, 3.5 etc. Seems to me that would give you a bit more flexibility in distinguishing between talent levels.
James Simmons, A's. 1st rounder, seemed polished, awful 2009 line, no 2010 minor league play. Injured? Any hope he pans out? Thanks
Kevin, I am in a dynasty fantasy league where we draft and keep minor league talent in addition to our major league rosters. Two or three years ago I had the last pick in the first round of our minor league draft. I selected Neftali Feliz in large part based on your enthusiatic write ups. Thanks for the tip Kevin. Note this year I took Mike Trout!
Franklin definitely. How about Kyle Gibson? He seems like a perfect fit for the Twins and seemingly has the ability to make adjustments quickly.
I agree Silvio. I am a fan too. We have seen other teams seemingly come out of nowhere. Everything with the A's will depend on pitching, the great equalizer. Young pitching is very erratic but occasionally things jell. Sheets looks like a perfect fit as a veteran ace. Of course he is also a perfect gamble given his health concerns but I still like this signing better than a harden deal. Harden has always been the ace in waiting, never the ace.
Compliments for noticing and mentioning Rowland-Smith. The more I see of him, the more I like and at 25 he still is maturing as a pitcher. I am in a AL only fantasy dynasty league and Rowland-Smith has gone from a 2008 spec pick for me to a possible keeper for 2009.