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jwaldhoff
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/43783
jwaldhoff
(43783)
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Pardon me if you've posted this elsewhere, but what is your analysis of the closer situation in Toronto? Other than "ridiculous," that is. I'm betting on Kevin Gregg (just picked him up in my 12-team league, cutting Eric Young, Jr.) though I think Toronto (and I) will probably regret it. I selected Gregg to make up for an early-season loss of Huston Street. Smart move?

 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

Nah. Take it easy on yourself. Easy thing to overlook.

Mar 10, 2010 12:20 PM on NL Starting Pitchers
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

He's an AL-pitcher. This is an NL ranking.

Mar 10, 2010 9:11 AM on NL Starting Pitchers
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 1

I think the tiers work very well for pitchers. Yes, the guys at the top/bottom of each tier are arguably just a step away from their adjacent tier, but it seems to me that, to the extent anyone (or anyalgorithm) can predict a pitching performance, these tiers show real divisions between likely pitching performance. This seems true, even if "risk" is a bigger part of these tier rankings, rather than purely skill.

Mar 10, 2010 6:54 AM on NL Starting Pitchers
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

oops -- Ubaldo Jimenez, obviously.

Mar 09, 2010 8:08 PM on NL Starting Pitchers
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

Cole Hamels v. Ubaldo Jimenz Who gives the most value in 5x5 categories (with IP replacing saves) over the next 4 years? Assume the ballpark stays the same.

Mar 09, 2010 8:07 PM on NL Starting Pitchers
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

I should note that I've looked at Desmond Jenning's PECOTA card, but it doesn't look like it was adjusted based on his 2009 minor-league season. Hardball Times lists Jennings as the #4 prospect in the entire minors for 2010; his PECOTA profile doesn't give him that kind of respect. So I guess I'm wondering how much PECOTA has changed its tune -- or how much you question PECOTA -- based on Jenning's 2009 performance.

 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

So much thanks for your work. Totally worth the price of admission. Although this is the "final word," I feel like I have to ask -- any thoughts on how Desmond Jennings might fit into these rankings? I'm particularly interested in how he might look 2-3 years down the road compared to, say, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Dexter Fowler, and the Big FraGu. Appreciate any input you can give me.

 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for the heads up; I knew it was on the site somewhere. I should think -- and link -- before I post. Thanks, -JW

 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

I guess I should chalk up Nate McLouth's "contact lens" story with all the other "best shape of my life" and "tweaked my swing" stories that come out of spring training. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/best-shape-of-my-life-a-retrospective That said, I cannot help but be a bit excited. Nate McLouth's K% increased from about 15.5% in 2008 (when he put up an .853 OPS) to about 19.5% in 2009 (when his OPS dropped below .790). If his vision really has improved a reasonable degree with these new contacts contacts, isn't there a good chance he could take a pretty big step forward? Whatever the knocks on him for being a little overhyped (defensive metrics saying he didn't deserve his GG, etc.), he is a fun player to watch with balanced skills and decent athleticism -- good speed, pretty decent power bat, and he seems like a good guy. I enjoyed watching him play on television and had him in my fantasy outfield until recently. I happened to be in Atlanta watching the Cubs/Braves game the day in 2009 he got traded from Pittsburgh. They flashed his name and picture up on the jumbotron, and the crowd seemed a bit indifferent. I had a brief conversation with a jaded Braves fan sitting nearby who complained that adding McLouth was more like adding one of his little-league players than a real major-leaguer. I figured he hadn't followed McLouth much (as most Braves fans probably don't watch the last-place NL-Central teams regularly) and disagreed. I thought that Braves fans (I am not one) could look forward to having a balanced, productive player who is a lot of fun to watch in their outfield. I know what PECOTA thinks -- any other thoughts on McLouth's overall outlook for 2010 and beyond?

Mar 05, 2010 2:17 PM on Braves-Pirates, 3/3
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

Are you all coming to Chicago or to downstate Illinois -- like, say, Champaign -- during the tour?

 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 1

I'll try to check the site later, but how much did Lind go for, if at all? I like Snider's career ceiling more than Lind's (if for no other reason than Snider has had a hotter cup of coffee at a younger age than Lind did), but I think they may make similar contributions this season, at least against RHP. Any thoughts?

Mar 30, 2009 8:22 AM on Assigned the Impossible
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: -1

That should say "Crushin' Russian," not "Crusin'" -- that would be a very different kind of nickname. Thanks. What I was curious about is why a 3B is ranked on this outfield list.

Mar 23, 2009 10:00 AM on Post-Mortem
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: -1

Interesting to see Adam Lind ahead of the rest of the (fairly) talented Toronto outfield -- including Rios, a very promising Snider, and a pretty good (but oft-injured) Vernon Wells. I read the Lind snippets before, but I'd like to hear more about this . . . also because he was my next-to-last pick in my draft this past weekend. Thanks! PS - I'm also curious about Kevin Kouzmanoff, who shouldn't be called the Crusin' Russian -- perhaps the Mashing Macedonian? Thanks!

Mar 23, 2009 9:59 AM on Post-Mortem
 
jwaldhoff
(43783)
Comment rating: 0

As stated above, you left Alfonso Soriano out of your 40/40 list. I am curious if there are any other lessons we can glean by looking at the members the 30/30 or 40/40 club: Canseco, Bonds, Ramirez, and Soriano are the only 40/40 clubbers. At least 2 of those players are pretty definitively part of the PED club as well. Is 40/40 an outer limit of physical ability given the current games parameters? For additional reference, Wikipedia (among others) has a list of 30/30 or better players -- most these were after the (at least anecdotal) arrival of PEDs: Ken Williams St. Louis Browns 1922 39 37 Willie Mays New York Giants 1956 36 40 Willie Mays (2) New York Giants 1957 35 38 Hank Aaron Milwaukee Braves 1963 44 31 Bobby Bonds San Francisco Giants 1969 32 45 Tommy Harper Milwaukee Brewers 1970 31 38 Bobby Bonds (2) San Francisco Giants 1973 39 43 Bobby Bonds (3) New York Yankees 1975 32 30 Bobby Bonds (4) California Angels 1977 37 41 Bobby Bonds (5) Chicago White Sox/Texas Rangers 1978 31 43 Dale Murphy Atlanta Braves 1983 36 30 Joe Carter Cleveland Indians 1987 32 31 Eric Davis Cincinnati Reds 1987 37 50 Howard Johnson New York Mets 1987 36 32 Darryl Strawberry New York Mets 1987 39 36 JosĂ© Canseco Oakland Athletics 1988 42 40 Howard Johnson (2) New York Mets 1989 36 41 Barry Bonds Pittsburgh Pirates 1990 33 52 Ron Gant Atlanta Braves 1990 32 33 Ron Gant (2) Atlanta Braves 1991 32 34 Howard Johnson (3) New York Mets 1991 38 30 Barry Bonds (2) Pittsburgh Pirates 1992 34 39 Sammy Sosa Chicago Cubs 1993 33 36 Barry Bonds (3) San Francisco Giants 1995 33 31 Sammy Sosa (2) Chicago Cubs 1995 36 34 Dante Bichette Colorado Rockies 1996 31 31 Barry Bonds (4) San Francisco Giants 1996 42 40 Ellis Burks Colorado Rockies 1996 40 32 Barry Larkin Cincinnati Reds 1996 33 36 Jeff Bagwell Houston Astros 1997 43 31 Barry Bonds (5) San Francisco Giants 1997 40 37 RaĂșl MondesĂ­ Los Angeles Dodgers 1997 30 32 Larry Walker Colorado Rockies 1997 49 33 Shawn Green Toronto Blue Jays 1998 35 35 Alex Rodriguez Seattle Mariners 1998 42 46 Jeff Bagwell (2)Houston Astros 1999 42 30 RaĂșl MondesĂ­ (2)Los Angeles Dodgers 1999 33 36 Preston Wilson Florida Marlins 2000 31 36 Bobby Abreu Philadelphia Phillies 2001 31 36 Jose Cruz, Jr. Toronto Blue Jays 2001 34 32 Vladimir Guerrero Montreal Expos 2001 34 37 Vladimir Guerrero (2) Montreal Expos 2002 39 40 Alfonso Soriano New York Yankees 2002 39 41 Alfonso Soriano (2) New York Yankees 2003 38 35 Bobby Abreu (2) Philadelphia Phillies 2004 30 40 Carlos Beltran KC Royals/Houston Astros 2004 38 42 Alfonso Soriano (3) Texas Rangers 2005 36 30 Alfonso Soriano (4) Washington Nationals2006 46 41 David Wright New York Mets 2007 30 34 Jimmy Rollins Philadelphia Phillies 2007 30 41 Brandon Phillips Cincinnati Reds 2007 30 32 Grady Sizemore Cleveland Indians 2008 33 38 Hanley RamĂ­rez Florida Marlins 2008 33 35

Mar 11, 2009 11:15 AM on Spring Dust-Up