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I remember eagerly awaiting the first start of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=61056">Stephen Strasburg</a></span> in 2010, having drafted him in 2009 while still at S.D> State (a 3-year keeper league, NOT a dynasty). He struck out 14 and kept striking out more guys until his arm finally blew up. Still, it was a lot of fun while it lasted.
For pitchers you started using this year's PFM numbers. Is there going to be something using those numbers for the hitters' tiers that were done or are they going to remain on separate projections?
Too much content - you're going to get me fired.
I was driving my toddler daughters to a swim class early on a Friday evening in July 2004 when I nearly drove off Route 684 and crashed the car killing us all. Over the radio it was announced that the Mets gave away coveted top-prospect Scott Kazmir for perennial walk machine, Victor Zambrano. Called my other die-hard Mets fan friend Dave bewildered and searching for answers. Still have not gotten a good one a decade later.
Runner-up Mets head scratcher (ala Phillies 2 for none deal) Mets clear up CF logjam of Mookie and Dykstra by getting rid of both and ending up with Juan Samuel. Good times...
How about catching (or perhaps throwing) a knuckleball?
Thanks for another year of excellent writing and fantasy advice. I look forward to this column every week to help with my 20-team keeper league.
The Grand Slam Single game was the greatest game I ever attended. Each of the extra innings was a heart attack wrapped in a minor stroke. One small favorite moment was the "2nd 7th inning stretch" in the 14th inning. As I and everyone else crowded in the bathroom to hurriedly relieve the other pressure that had grew unbearable, a young kid was heard to loudly complain to his father, "But Dad, I don't want to go home now" to which the father replied "Sorry son, it is a school night." Flummoxed that a father and Mets fan could deny his son the experience of this game after 14 innings, I immediately started the "C'mon, let the kid stay!" chant. I only hope that the kid got to stick around for the next inning that I will remember forever.
Agree. With the pitchers you know that you are buying the front end of the deals and hopefully get some value for the last year or two (not saying it is a good or bad thing). But Howard was an insane deal that did not need to be made based on his then-contract and for a player with a horrible age curve/body type staring you in the face. As a Mets fan, I hope they extend Amaro's contract for 5 years because he is the "right person."
The reallocation of draft money from pitching to hitting does not necessarily mean having to overpay for all your top hitters. You can reallocate simply by foregoing a number one pitcher in favor of adding a second round-type hitter. Sometimes it just works out that way organically if you think the bargains are falling on one side of the hitting/pitching ledger or the other.
Welcome to the deep end of the pool.
I hate the acronym, so I will just write that I legitimately laughed out loud through the whole piece. Looking forward to the rest of the series significantly more than I am the 2014 Mets season (did not intend this as a backhanded compliment as that is not a high hurdle to clear).
Laughed out loud when I read that joke and heard it in Ralph's voice in my head. RIP - you will be missed by this life-long Mets fan.
Always enjoyed the Turk Wendell rosin bag slam into the back of the mound.
Just curious, do you check to see if there are any severe splits vs. LHP/RHP that would be exacerbated if given more PAs?
Solid piece, Jason. As a fellow labor lawyer (management side) I agree with your take on this. As for a class action or defense, I think Braun, who is claiming contact via attorneys for expert witness purposes, would never let himself get lumped in with players who lack that defense. It will be interesting to watch who goes first in the arbitrations since Bosch's credibility is key to everything and he already made public statements backing up Braun's version. If MLB loses the Braun case, their prime witness is tainted. If they win cases before Braun goes, Bosch gains credibility (especially if the same neutral is used). Looking forward to the show as it gets leaked out.
Likelihood Buxton sees the bigs in 2014 or just too soon for a 19 y.o.?
Appreciate the article. Wish my league was not so deep (20 teams ML) since there is only one guy mentioned that is not already rostered.
What happened to the NL starters and relievers? I thought those were to be out today?
So if MLB had suspicion that a player bet $100 on a baseball game at a Las Vegas casino, would the casino be civilly liable to MLB because the player breached his contract with the league? The attack against an allegedly disreputable supplier of PEDs is a novel approach, but I don't see this a viable theory of liability. It's just too attenuated, but makes for a good 1L Torts class discussion.
If MLB puts in play a broad claim of financial damages, the other side has the right to receive information about their finances to see if there is legitimacy to the claim or to support alternate theories for whatever b.s. losses they claim are related to the contractual interference.
It is my understanding that MLB and its teams have always been very reluctant to open up their books and disclose their finances. If I were defending this case, the first phone call I make is to tell MLB that, if they persist with this farcical lawsuit, I would be serving demands for the books and ledgers for all 30 teams and MLB, from concessions, tv revenues, parking and public stadium financing. In their haste I am not sure if they wanted to open Pandora's box in this way, but when you throw out nebullous claims for damages, you permit the opposing party to discover quite a bit.
Glad you are doing them after all. Look forward to the rest and obviously time is of the essence. Thanks again.
Great, now I have that song stuck in my head all day.
Enjoyed the article very much. Wondering if there is past data on this that could be analyzed to see what predictive value comes from velocity loss? As a fantasy player, I presume this may increase the likelihood of loss of effectiveness or injury, I am just wondering how seriously I should hold back on some of these guys. It would be interesting to at least see anecdotally how similar losses of velocity affected pitchers in the past few years, or perhaps did not, and why.
Sounds good. Anxiously looking forward to it now that the noise of football has abated and drafts are looming large and no longer a distant concept. Thanks.
That's disappointing to hear. The tiers (which still appear as links in this year's PFM) were some of the best fantasy draft tools available. While this format is interesting, 15 is not deep enough for most leagues.
Just for some clarification - are these top 15 ranking lists taking the place of the fantasy tiers that Derek did last year? I like the analysis here, but hope it does not supplant what was an invaluable tool last year...
Loved it. Please let us know if someone sends him this article and he has any reaction. I hope whoever reads it to him can describe the humor effectively. Keep up the good work Mark, you are an inspiration to the disabled community.
With the new compensation rules, there may be added value to a team getting Dickey now rather than mid-year when they get no added draft pick (assuming he warrants a $13.3M offer). There is utility in signing both, riding it out and then trading later if there is a market and a belief that the maturing prospects are too far off. I still have a hard time forgiving Alderson for not dealing Reyes and getting back a haul similar to that received with Beltran when it was a stone-cold fact the team decided it was not going to re-sign him before the season started.
I fear we have a new entrant in the Chuck Norris/Martin Kove pantheon.
Colon's thighs are about 220 ea., so what was the problem?
19 team AL/NL, keeper (3 yr contracts), $260 draft and $100 FAAB. We have an in-season $315 cap, July 31 limited trading deadline after which teams can deal w/ those 4 up or down from them or w/in 15 points. Full trade deadline August 31. It is a good balance of free market while forcing some decisions regarding deals and curtailing some blatant stupidity that is, as others have said, the biggest source of league angst. League has been around 14 years so this is the result of a lot of fine-tuning and seems to work as well as any.
What are your thoughts on Adam Eaton in AZ? Is he likely to be a call-up and have any lasting ability?
Sorry, I see more pterodactyl than spider.
How fun is this. Incredible timing. As a Mets fan, I appreciate your mixed feelings about it actually happening, but I will take that no-hitter any day.
So, when do you write the article about the Cubs winning the Series?
So does Walker get a cup of coffee this year?
Any chance Hamilton gets called up this year?
I'd be interested to see an article (particularly for keeper leagues) that looks at the relative value for dollars spent at various points in a draft with the influence of inflation and position scarcity. For many years it has been a combination of "feel" and knowing who remains in the different tiers when deciding if it was smart to buy at/over/under the projected value or to wait. Just curious if there is any mathematical way to gauge those things to help get optimal results? Also any way to provide that information so that my leaguemates don't read it? :)
Gaudy, garish, tasteless - I kind of like it.
And what, no Miami Vice theme?
I always find it amusing that the early Spring Training reports of "_______ is in the best shape of his life" are closely followed with "_______ is out indefinitely from swinging a bat/bending over/etc."
Quick question - Is PECOTA going to have the percentiles again? I have not seen them yet this year.
amazin is is right. If the Mets had ownership properly committed to a rebuild they would have dealt Reyes last summer when they knew he was not coming back and invested in, or at tried to land, some of the recent international prospects (Soler, Cespedes, etc.) that could help revive the team. But I do not see (and the article does not point to) some bright light at the end of the tunnel when the Wilpons will be financially viable again and pumping money back into the team. They own a mansion but can't afford the upkeep and taxes so it is falling into disrepair and getting mortgaged to the hilt. Sell the house, Fred.
Lastly, 2018 is 6 years away - how about 2014-5? Very sad to say I would take the Royals, probably for both periods barring ownership change.
I would say well below 2M. I'll make Opening Day because I have for all but one year in the past 15 or so, but that will be it for me. Ridiculously disappointed in this ownership and that they screwed Einhorn from entering the mix (not the least of which is because he is a friend). Sad to say, but I am hoping for the worst case scenario described above so that we can rise from the ashes like a phoenix.
Had a funny conversation with the arbitrator who was to hear Lincecum's case a year or two ago. They settled at the last minute but Lincecum's representative was kind enough to show him what would have been Exhibits A and B - Linc's 2 Cy Young awards. That is what I call persuasive evidence...
Mets fans have tolerated many years (Omar, Duquette, Phillips) of mismanagement and kept coming. But from my personal experience and anecdotal knowledge from many other fans, the one thing we will not abide is the Wilpons trying to run this franchise on the cheap. Even a rebuilding effort would have some traction with knowledgeable fans, but letting Reyes walk rather than suffer the bad PR last season of dealing him for some value was patently stupid. I will go to Opening Day as I always do, but there is very little likelihood I will pay to see this team in 2012. Death spiral it is...
For someone who is somewhat "stats challenged," given the amount of data now available wouldn't it be possible to reverse engineer a predictive model to find the optimal blend of prior stats that would result in the best predictions? Couldn't you look over the known results for the last decade relative to the data for each of the preceding 3-4 years and tinker with a weighting system (or other model) to see which one produces the closest results? Perhaps this is what you do with PECOTA and I would be interested to know, but with modern computing ability it seems like a reasonable and testable, albeit backwards, way to get the best results.
Funny, one of the two movie scenes that always make me mist up is in "Field of Dreams" but it is when Moonlight Graham steps off the field to save Costner's daughter knowing that he can never go back. For the sake of completeness, the other is in "Miracle on 34th Street" when Santa speaks Dutch to the little orphan girl. Gonna go lift some weights now and spit so I feel a bit more manly...
Any idea who the Rays were set to take if the Rockies had grabbed Longoria? It would be interesting to speculate how they would have fared assuming it is not Reynolds.
That is not a tight shirt, I believe it is body paint.
Dude, take your meds...
How funny is it that the page dedicated to the Thome Family on the Peoria Sports Hall of Fame website did not see fit to mention that, oh yeah, Jim Thome is a major league player with over 600 HRs and likely to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame?
Thanks, Rob - great analysis!
Fanstasy value for Reddick in 2012-13?
Kevin - I'm in a very deep fantasy league (AL & NL) and am looking for your ranking for the rest of this year and next year of the following:
Cowgill, Giavotella, Pena and Robinson.
Any other lesser touted gems that might be available in my ridiculously deep league?
Profit/loss = $0 - What about the imaginary vig?
Thanks, Mike. that was kind of how I was seeing it. His other option is Lyon, but I do not have a great deal of faith in him. Do think his mediocrity is worth the risk?
And further clarification, this is pre-draft keeper trade, Putz is my only reliever, hitter may be a $13 Alexei Ramirez with another year left.
Sorry, I was unclear. I meant Andrew Bailey. By way of background it is a 4x4 18-team mixed keeper league, 9 keepers (up to 3 yrs).
What is the outlook for Bailey? I have Putz at $1 w/ another year left in my league and may be able to deal him for Bailey ($1, no years) and a hitter, but I do not want to go from the frying pan into the fire.
You have learned well, Grasshopper...
Beltran's called third strike
It's all been downhill since then.
Damn you, Ponzi scheme!!!
[sorry, forgot the "then"]
Beltran's called third strike
It's all been downhill since.
Damn you, Ponzi scheme!!!
I always remember seeing Karim Garcia's name being touted and he just fizzled into nothing.
Saw the show and enjoyed it. I think the Reyes situation, assuming he is not asking for the moon, will be a real bellweather to see how bad off the Wilpons are and what to expect from this franchise going forward.
I hate to ask, but what is Replacement Value going to be set at? Is PECOTA set for comps? Personally, I would love for my top 3 to be Milton Berle, John Holmes and Nick "the Dick" from "Bachelor Party" (dating myself with that reference). Dare to dream...
By the way, there are just a treasure troves of untapped jokes here, but I am not going go there. Like wanting to lead the league in DP's. Whoops, I went and did it.
I don't think Kinsler found salty tasteless, but then again I didn't click on the link...
Shocker - MLB pulled the McCarver video. I remember when he was with the Mets and still a good announcer. What happened to him?
Wouldn't dollar amounts (based on some standard league measurement) be as good or better than tiers for comparative purposes? Include counting stats too, as they are generally what roto leagues are based upon. Also, as someone mentioned in the LF comments, since most leagues mix OF's, why not just the top 100 or so. And yes, many of us are in leagues that deep, especially when considering players with multiple eligibility.
But again, excellent work. Thanks.
Not to create more work for you, but 20 at each position is not enough if you are in a deep league. Moreover, while your expert opinion is valued regarding the better players, it may be even more valuable for the players on the margin who can make or break a fantasy season. Getting a decent return on a $1-3 player is often where a season is won.
A very interesting topic of discussion. Being a New Yorker, I can only imagine what it would have been like had the Yankees ended up losing by a run after Jeter's stupid decision. And if it had been A-Rod, forget it.
I'm gonna guess that it was a typo for Univ. of California - Long Beach (UCLB).
I wonder further if the handedness of the batter coupled with the throwing arm of the catcher would be a factor? Would a right-handed catcher be more impeded or reticent to jump up and throw if a left-handed hitter is swinging the lumber in his arm path?
I assume the answer is yes, but do the opponents stats include those given up by the pitcher in question?
Am I dating myself by saying that I finished the article and in my head I heard that old lady from the Wendy's ad (Clara Peller?) saying "Where's the beef"?
Okay on style, but lacking on substance. I often read articles about grabbing high K/BB and K/IP relievers, but most do not discuss the variance you see from year to year. Sure, Marmol has been consistently good for the past year and a half, but for every Marmol there are a half dozen flameouts that can only be culled from the mix by virtue of hindsight. And almost none of these fantasy pieces discuss competetive leagues where the free agent bidding in-season is fierce for any RP with even a glimmer of a chance to close and put up solid peripherals. In keeper leagues, the choices are even more limited. The piece was more of a primer for fantasy beginners than one that would inform BP readers. Again, good on style, but "eh" otherwise.
An auction is more about money management and knowing when to act. If you want one of the top 3 SS, for instance, try to grab the first one (Hanley or Reyes), since the second and then last one in that tier tend to go for more without the added value. It is okay to let some top players go, but remember, when everybody is targeting the "bargain/value guys," their numbers start to become less of a bargain.
Lastly, and save this for a moment that really counts, if you want to cap off the bidding on an important player, signal Jenn to do an exaggerated, sexy yawn just before the bids close. Roto-fantasy geeks will be flumoxed and your will get your player. Good luck.
Ah, Turk. The slamming of the rosin bag after his warm-up pitches still makes me smile. Yes, he insisted on #99 and I believe also made sure his contract ended in $X,999,999.99. Baseball needs characters like him...