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OnTilt
15 comments | 7 total rating | 0.47 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/42149
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

The counting stats for Russell may be a top for him, but you've got to think that there is a lot more potential for a much higher batting average than .238. As you said, this all occured during his age 22 season. First of all, the K rate dropping from 28.5% to 22.6% from age 21 to 22 is very good, showing improvement. Also the batted ball profile, specifically hard hit and power should increase in his 20's. I don't think he'll ever have a BA-BIP as low as last season's .277 again. He was .324 a year before and he increased his hard hit % and line drive % while having slightly better plate discipline accross the board. So while he may have had about as much of an outlier in RB-I as he ever will last year, the batting average increase should increase the run total while the RB-I total may not regress as much as you'd think, and mid-20s H-Rs sounds entirely reasonable too. I'd definitely take him over Arcia. That one's not even close given the production in both the minors and majors is way better for Russell at each relative point in their careers, plus the scouting projection on both and the future lineup for both. I'd take him over Segura's BA-BIP fueled line from last year, and even though the potential for Anderson and Baez are higher, they are way riskier profiles.

Feb 08, 2017 7:10 AM on Shortstop
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

Grandal for MVP? Maybe when the broaded community recognizes the value of pitch framing.

 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks, glad I could help. I understand that he had some poor fielding numbers in the minors and, even though his fielding seemed to be very good now that he's worked at it, it will take some time for that to flow through to a quantitative method like this since it needs to show up in the data. When you said it added 13 runs to his FR-AA did you mean it went up from -21 to -8? Or is it going up from -8 to +5? His player card still shows -8 for his 2017 projection.

Feb 07, 2017 8:57 AM on October 13-19
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 2

Well that was obnoxious with your site attempting to embed links. Here it without those keywords. One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 FR-AA? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field? I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 On Base and .440 Slugging in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher WA-RP with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow. *I have since looked it up on his player card. Contreras with a -9 FR-AA? So he'll be one of the worst defensive catchers in the league? Your own metric had him at +3.6 last year in half the time. That doesn't pass the smell test. *Regression for Russell and Baez as well in FR-AA? Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 7:03 AM on October 13-19
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field? I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and .440 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow. Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 6:39 AM on October 13-19
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

I've been wondering this as well. He clearly has power and speed. His strikeout rates will keep his batting average low, but he is a SS or 2B that will play half his games in Colorado. He's a 22 year old at AAA after putting up very good numbers as a 22 year old at AA and should reach the majors much sooner than most the guys on this list.

Jul 10, 2015 6:26 AM on Midseason Update
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

Will there be the Under 25 organizational rankings coming out this year?

 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 1

Why is Kuroda's salary listed as $7.3 million when he signed for $35.3 million?

 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

Is anyone else concerned that the average team is now four games over .500?

Mar 12, 2010 10:18 PM on
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

I'd like to see the original tables fixed with the correct xFIP numbers

Feb 23, 2010 2:30 PM on Barry's World
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 2

Yes, it should. Right now, the team RS/RA allowed totals are quite high, average of 812 per team. That's far higher than what we've observed the past few seasons, and also higher than one would expect given the team OBP/SLG forecasts. I think the run environment is too high on the team standings page. Given a normal 1.08 multiplier, the average team is allowing 770 runs, which looks much more reasonable.

 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 2

Currently that ratio is 1.14 for the league as a whole, so the Yankees number is not that far off the league average.

 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

Has anyone ever studied the correlation in third-order overperformance by the same team in consecutive years? How about first half/second half splits or something similar? Obviously this isn't perfect since player personnel will change, but the coaching staff and most of the roster should stay consistent.

Sep 19, 2009 5:36 PM on Overachieving Yet Again
 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

I think two things are clear for any large sample of pitchers: - For the same group, the standard deviation of ERA will be substantially higher than the standard deviation of FIP when their repsective averages are 4.60 and 4.65 - The standard deviation of a group of pitchers with a 3.34 collective ERA will be lower than that of a group with a 4.60 collective ERA Am I missing anything? I don't think we can conclude anything by comparing the standard deviations here.

 
OnTilt
(42149)
Comment rating: 0

The Dominican Republic made the semifinals in 2006.

Mar 16, 2009 10:05 AM on Fairness