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Edit: *not the son of Gregg Jefferies
So Daulton Jefferies, born in 1995 - one of two years that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17205">Gregg Jefferies</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=16936">Darren Daulton</a></span> were Phillies teammates - is apparently /not/ the son Gregg Jefferies?
What a bizarre world we live in.
Fortunately this year's games will be played by the 2016 Mets.
So Touki Toussaint is basically Dontrelle Willis?
Kim Ng and I are getting old
And we still haven't walked in the glow
Of each other's majestic presence.
(Not the answer you were looking for?)
Well, we've quantified how amazing it was in absolute terms, but not relatively. How can we know how hard it was for Cespedes to do that - either compared to other players or compared to his own prior performance? (Not that it wasn't completely amazing... I'm just curious how difficult it was, the opportunity for any OF to do this is extraordinarily rare, and in many cases - since it means airmailing the cut-off man - discouraged.)
Is Spangenberg more likely than Forsythe or Amarista to get the utility guy job this year?
...so, we'll be getting the rest of the Top 10 prospect lists around May, then?
Lagares is way too high unless and until he shows that he can get on base. He's our #7 or #8 hitter on Opening Day.
Also, the best way for this team to succeed is to keep Murphy and Young and Flores on board and platoon creatively, Tampa Bay/Oakland-style.
So vs. LHP, you might have:
And Duda can play 1B some, with Flores moving to 2B and Young to the OF and Granderson sitting against tough LHP (unless he puts up his 2012 platoon splits).
And vs. RHP:
It would be nice to bring a platoon-mate (Stephen Drew, as mentioned above) on board for Tejada. That's not a WS caliber team but it's better than running the same 8 guys out there every day irrespective of the opposition.
Thanks for the reply, I think.
Obviously the points you make are true. An elaborated version of my point would be: The fact that they "aren't for everybody" is disappointing to me as a long-time subscriber and fan of the site - i.e., that you've decided to launch your merch store (the idea of which I fully support) with products that appeal to the most insular of demographics and which, frankly, are sort of ridiculous. I'm an adult, a Mets fan, and a BPro fan. You think I'm going to buy a shirt that says "#wet" in large font, with a tiny BaseballProspectus logo, and no indication that it's a Mets shirt other than the color scheme?
What do you need a glossary for? Instead, you can have a t-shirt! #don'twantnotevenalittle
If you have the roster space to keep him and only play splits (and think he'll keep this pattern up), Porcello has been vastly better in his 9 night starts (3.00/1.09) this year than his 11 day starts (5.43/1.40).
If Hamilton is playing a good CF, shouldn't the Reds just call him up and use him liberally as a pinch-runner and defensive sub, rather than waiting for his bat to come around (which may never happen) while the last spot on the roster goes to Xavier Paul or their 8th RP or someone similarly useless?
My guess it's exactly like being a Mariners' fan in 1990, when they had Randy Johnson - the proto-Chris Sale - and absolutely no offense.
Seriously though, a baseball decathalon (or even heptathalon), with one representative sent from each team, would be an amazing all-star week event. So much better than what we have now.
Alternatively, they could all compete in the Modern Pentathalon. Now that would be a sight to see.
Would it be an insult, a compliment, or just right to call Byron Buxton a right-handed Kenny Lofton? It was the first thing I thought of watching him in CF make that catch wearing #7 on his back.
I say Clay!
You guys are too kind. I may never comment again.
Not sure I'm buying it. Rand was loved by 17 year-olds, dismissed once they matured. Tate was loved as a 17 year-old, has been dismissed now that he's matured.
What's the significance of makeup, though? Is it about allowing a player to reach his top potential? Mitigating the likelihood of drop-offs in performance due to behavioral issues/apathy/being out of shape? Improving his teammates around him? Likelihood of doing "the little things" (backing up throws, etc.)? All of the other skills have much more direct correlation to on-field performance, whereas it's not obvious what the point of scouting/grading makeup even is (not that I doubt that there is one).
No love for the knuckler?
God, how did we ever manage to write and convey our thoughts to one another without #hashtags?
This is one of those articles that highlight the difference between fantasy baseball and Scoresheet, let alone real-life MLB. The blow-up start guys might be undervalued in game-by-game formats, since their disastrous outings at maximum can cost their team only one loss in the standings, while they can sabotage your entire season or week in a H2H/roto league. (Yes, I know, disaster starts tire out bullpens, but that's a small factor.)
The confusingly worded Pete Beiden inscription makes me wish for a compendium of poorly worded statue inscriptions. As a serious Yankee-hater, I got a great dose of schadenfreude when Steinbrenner's plaque in Monument Park included this doozy:
"A great philanthropist whose charitable efforts were mostly performed without fanfare, he followed a personal motto of the greatest form of charity is anonymity."
Got it. Wasn't sure exactly how much of the slow progress to allocate to "injury resume" vs. "late bloomer" or some such.
[Oops - responded to wrong post - sorry.]
So they signed Ramirez as a 17-year old in 2007; he's been in their system ever since but hasn't progressed past high-A. Is there an injury history there, or is he just slow-moving - and if so, is that cause for concern?
"Typewriter" isn't a bad nickname, but he should've gone with "Van Lungle".
Are you using the British "quite", as in "not really"?
You've forgotten King Kong.
As a Mets fan, I'd love to be that optimistic about Tejada, but the numbers are misleading you into optimism. The BB% was highly inflated in 2011 by his batting 8th in front of the pitcher, and regressed predictably once he moved to the #1/2 spot last year and demonstrated that he has very little natural patience at the plate. I can see him sustaining a .275 average, but it'll be devoid of power and he won't supplement it with walks. I think his glove plays, but he's not a cornerstone, he's a spare part.
To be precise - and it matters - the "wording isn't very different". They've just removed the reference altogether, and you're inferring that they did that because they wanted the ambiguous situation to be interpreted in the manner opposite the way it would be interpreted with the old, unambiguous language in place. There's no evidence at all that the removal was for the purpose of changing course on how to resolve that situation, no more so than that it was simply an error by the lawyers involved (for example).
Matt Adams = Jason Kubel, right? I'm not asking for a comp - I'm just saying that it's pretty clear that they're the same person. Has anyone stopped to figure out what will happen when ARZ and STL play this year? This could be the greatest scandal since the Mark Reynolds blindness saga.
Then you probably don't listen (or read) enough.
So is it okay if Bonds gets in on the second ballot?
That they did. Shame that they never won it all with that core in the 90s - always needed one more pitcher. And a shame that Lofton's reputation suffered in later years when he bounced from one team to another - the DHL commercial was the crushing blow to his HOF candidacy (or so I'd like to believe).
Also for Russell: I feel like you and I might be the same child. I fell in love with Lofton as a 12-year old at Spring Training 1992 in Arizona. Lofton was a crowd favorite in Tuscon, having played the year before for the Tuscon Toros, the Astros affiliate, prior to being traded to Cleveland for Eddie Taubensee. (The things we remember.) Somehow this led to my amassing a collection of hundreds of unique Kenny Lofton baseball cards - not to mention magazine covers, autographed balls, news clippings, etc. It culminated in 2008 (in a sense) when my best friend as a 12-year old, now a groomsman for my wedding, gave a toast exploring the unbelievable affinity that some 12-year Jewish boy in the New York suburbs had for this far-away idol. I'll probably have to stop wishing that Lofton be a HOFer after today, but it's been a nice 21 years with him.
We were already in the tank for 2013, even with Dickey. This just pushes the due date back from 2014 to 2015.
Dickey's breakout season was 2010, just no one noticed. He's been one of the 3-5 best SPs in the National League over the last three years.
Translation: "You can't always get what you want."
By implication, are you saying that you think Sano sticks at 3B? Or where?
That's too bad. I'd love to see the look on Bud's face when he realized the flaw in his master plan. Thanks for the info, though.
Maybe this is a stupid question: one-game playoffs technically count as regular season games, no? Stats go towards regular season, records end up with 163 games played, etc.
So say Chicago wins the central and Texas wins the west, and NYY, BAL, DET, and OAK all end up with the same record, e.g. 92-70. Now NYY and BAL have to play a one-game playoff for the east. Doesn't the loser technically finish with a record of 92-71 for the season - 1/2 game out of the wild cards, which would go to DET and OAK by default?
Is the overly simplified takeaway of this article that it's really hard to succeed as a one-pitch starting pitcher in the major leagues?
"Wow, you were gone a long time" is one of the best throwaway lines I've read in ages. Well done.
Okay. Just curious. I found it visually distracting when I was reading through - figured others might have, too.
Is there a (good) reason why you're using "SO" instead of "K"?
Exactly. Trout's amazing, but replace (e.g.) Listach with Kenny Lofton and you knock him down a notch.
Just to add another data point to your "more raw athlete than instinctual defensive player" assessment on Nimmo - the night before when the two teams played in Coney Island, he made a beautiful, leaping, twisting athletic catch on a drive over his head to center... but only after having been twice turned the wrong way and losing track of the ball due to a severe wind blowing in off the ocean.
I think this commentary is outdated by a year or two. Minnesota's lineup this year is totally passable, if not world-beating: OBP guys in Span/Revere, four good bats in Mauer/Morneau/Willingham/Doumit, and a surprising power source from the left side of the infield in Plouffe. Sure, Carroll/Dozier/Casilla stink, but that's 2/9 of the lineup, even if it could stand to be improved one way or another. Hell, the team scored more runs than anyone in July, iirc.
The pitching, on the other hand, is a total disaster, and the better question is whether the obsession with pitch-to-contact, low-strikeout righties is Gardenhire's fault or the management.
Aaron Cook is wearing number 6? For the love of god. Pitchers don't wear single digits. Alex White is wearing #6, too, but at least he has the excuse of being young and naive and pitching for the Rockies, where it's a good idea for pitchers to try to blend in. But Aaron Cook?
Was this an article about Memorable Late-Season Yankee Call-Ups?
The only thing I don't follow here is the comment about Zunino "solving Seattle's long-standing catching issues." They've got one guy (Jaso) with a 900 OPS and a career OBP around .370 (and more BBs than Ks), plus Montero. Are they ready to relegate Montero to Edgar Martinez-land for the rest of his career already, and let Jaso walk? Maybe 2014 is more likely for Zunino, or maybe I'm overly sanguine about Jaso.
Cohen is a great play-by-play guy. Lewin is still finding his footing but is oh-so-much-better than Wayne Hagin, who couldn't string together enough words at once to form a cogent sentence or narrate the play as it was happening, rather than after the fact. Yeah, he puns too much, but he and Cohen have a good rapport developing. The only faults I find with Cohen are his resistance to advanced statistics and his moralizing regarding players' off-field behavior.
Oh, come on. For whom, exactly, is the Mariners fan base going to abandon them? There isn't another major league team in a thousand miles. Are they worried about losing southern Oregon to the Giants/A's? Eastern Idaho to the Rockies?
Or Benny Agbayani.
Congratulations. This is in the running for the most-negatived comment in BP history. You must be quite proud.
And I still go to games at Shea Stadium.
Also, as for destroying baseball traditions without a good reason, have you met my friend Bud Selig?
Speaking of seconds, it takes approximately 2.9 to click on the players name and then press a button to get back to the page you were on - much less than it would take for Kevin to provide this information for you.
Can there be a field for the date information was updated, to sort by that? If I'm coming every day, what I want to know is what you've added/changed since the last time I was there.
what about Travis Hafner? he has a track record of success, unlike some of the quick starters. do you think he can sustain a 380-400 OBP and a 500ish SLG? he's younger than I'd realized (34) by 3 or 4 years.
Any way of knowing whether Hamilton's "doubles" are a result of added power or of him using his speed to turn tweeners into XBHs? I'd imagine major-league level defenders would cut down on some of those, whereas actual power would be harder to defend.
Thanks, didn't know that.
Are the infinitely repeating GIFs necessary because MLB won't allow you to embed video content? They're unbelievably distracting and make it impossible for me to actually read any of your content.
At least on Firefox, I'm finding that the "recent articles" sidebar is intruding onto the right-hand half of the draft aid page.
Also, for reasons of both wit and brevity, that group is often referred to as the Contra Band.
The first time my now-wife went with me to a game, my dad and I took her to Shea Stadium and the Mets won 1-0 in 13 innings, after an amazing pitching duel between Pedro Martinez and Brandon Webb. http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2006/B05310NYN2006.htm
We spent most of the game trying to explain to her how, all appearances to the contrary, there wasn't "nothing happening," but that it was one of the most exciting games we'd ever been to. She tolerated this when we went to a diner for dessert after the game, and even married me a couple years later, but I still don't think she's persuaded that anything exciting happened that night.
What does "text-to-text speak" mean? And whatever it means, I'm astonished that you're so willing to concede so easily that using the word "dearth" conveys anything more malign than a high school education.
Just because one idiot used "dearth" wrong doesn't make it archaic.
Your "closer examination" of PECOTA took all of three minutes?
The interesting question to me is how much the "win-now" signings of Jackson and Lidge, and the trade of prospects for Gio, speeds up Harper's timetable. You've got Jackson on a one-year deal; that's not really compatible with keeping Harper down in AAA for service-clock reasons until June. (If they think he needs more minor league at-bats, that's another story, but it doesn't sound like Davey thinks so.)
...after which Hanley's performance dropped off sharply in 2010, and even further in 2011. Nice work, Albert!
Yeah, that "de jour" citation is just plain wrong. "De jour" would mean "of day," not "of the day". "Jour" is masculine, which means it's "le jour" ("the day"), and then to make it "of the day", you combine "de" ("of") with the definite article ("le") and, because the French are strange, instead of getting "de le" you actually get "du". (If it's feminine, you combine "de" with "la" and get "de la", as you might expect.)
Nitpicking French spelling/grammar error: "du" jour.
One thing about the "Brewster's Millions" write up (a movie I love, though I would never think of it as a baseball movie): I don't know much about Bradford Doolittle, but I would really hope that he has more points of reference on Jerry Orbach than that he's both Brewster's manager and "Baby's father from Dirty Dancing".
Adam Dunn, Frank Howard, Tony Clark...
Juan Pierre was an extremely valuable offensive player in three of his first four big league years, when he ran OBPs around .370. It's easy to forget that now. If Hamilton can do that consistently -- or even for 3 or 4 years -- he's a clear 5-star talent, and I think KG was looking at his "improved approach" and .380 OBP after the all-star break as a hint that he might be able to do just that. That's more Kenny Lofton than Juan Pierre.
The Farsi one is also notable for its inclusion of a photo of the half-Japanese, half-Iranian Yu Darvish.
This feature is great. One suggestion might be to include, on the team pages, entries for when a team lost a player to another team via free agency -- something akin to what Christina used to do in her TA columns, which was to say (e.g.) "12/6/11: Mets noted the loss of SS Jose Reyes." This would provide a more comprehensive chronology, looking at one team, of how different moves fit into a bigger picture of player loss/acquisition.
Maybe we should start calling them the "World Champions of American Baseball," just to confuse matters further. Then when the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim win the World Series each of the next ten years, we can have a heavy qualified mess on our hands.
Most Mets fans are aware that letting Reyes go was the right decision. It's the decision not to have traded him in July that kills us, since this turn of events was so obviously foreseeable.
Derek, If they sign Pujols, how do you figure that he, Stanton, Morrison, and Sanchez are all going to be in the starting lineup? I can't imagine any of them in CF. Or was that a typo?
Perhaps this is more a comment on my beloved Mets being bush-league than about Star Wars Night itself, but they did Star Wars Night at CitiField this year, too
And I may not agree with your consistent misspelling of "asinine," but I'll defend to the death your right to continue misspelling it, and I'll continue to judge you harshly for doing so.
Or the four head-to-head victories against Lincecum, with no more than 2 runs of support per game. That sort of stuff impresses itself on the consciousness, and I don't think it's at all wrong for voters to take it into account. It's not as though it runs contra to the advanced stats; it just amplifies them.
I agree. If there's any effort at all going into this that would otherwise be directed at something more substantive, then there's too much. Fast guy = could help in SBs? Power hitter = could be good at HRs? It's all pretty self-evident.
I'm not sure they can "make do" with that production from Prado in left field. They rode some unsustainable pitching performances (e.g. Jurrjens) to a big wild card lead, and then collapsed in large part because they never had the offense to support their record. Prado was a part of it, as was Infante, as was the jerking around of Heyward (not that he was great when left alone to play), &c.
At any rate, perhaps he should've dove. :)
Here's a better one: http://bit.ly/nZXsv2
I think the angle of that photo creates an illusion that he's closer to the ball than he actually was. His glove was around his knee when the ball hit his foot. I can't find a good photo of it but even this one -- http://wapo.st/pVND2c -- shows it being fractionally further away than the one you link to, and one at a different angle would show it even more.
Yeah, the point about Cruz is an important one. I'd go so far as to criticize him for not diving for that ball -- it's pretty key to make the catch with two outs, and he didn't come within a foot of getting his glove on it with that slide he tried.
Sorry - I didn't mean that to be snarky or minus-worthy. All I meant is that projecting 30+ HR per year is a little bit much for almost any prospect in baseball (as you note). I'm a huge fan of Duda; if he can go .275/.360/.475 or something for us, I'd take it in a heartbeat even if he's standing like a statue in right field. In fact, his (and Bay's) defense are better reason to bring the outfield walls in than anything having to do with adding more offense (which benefits our opponents equally).
Another point is that at the trade deadline, no one was calling for them to be buyers -- the most persistent rumor I was reading was moving Shields to Cincinnati for some combination of their blocked prospects (Grandal, Alonso, etc.).
Your fellow Mets fans appreciate your irrational exuberance for The Duda.
It's hard for me to imagine how this article could be written without mention of Daniel Murphy and only the scarcest mention of Lucas Duda. Any plausible scenario for next season has both of them rostered and likely getting a good number of starts, unless a significant FA signing comes in. Even if Bay is allowed to open the season as an every day LF, then Duda starts in RF and Murphy at 2B against RHPs - i.e., most of the time. Turner and Evans would be the short-side of the platoon at 1B, 2B, and RF, giving days off to Davis, Murphy, and Duda.
This is ridiculous. Slippery slope arguments in general don't have much of a leg to stand on, but what does the slope lead to in this case - more thoughtful commemorations? God forbid.
How is Koji Uehara "semi-effective"? He's struggled in Texas, but with Baltimore he was utterly dominant this year - 62:8 K:BB in 47 IP, 1.72 ERA, 0.70 WHIP - and nearly as good last year, and better than Johnson in both cases.
Now imagine if they still had Dan Haren...
This is at least the second time you've asked this. Do you have a bet going or something?
Carlos Beltran, I believe. Around 88%.
How good is Addison Reed?
Is there an obvious ranking/gradation of the following four guys, who share nothing in common other than (a) being minor league pitchers and (b) being on one of my keeper teams: AJ Cole, Keyvius Sampson, Allen Webster, Brody Colvin?
I love Nate Silver, but as a Mets' fan, I've never really forgiven him for this article. Thanks a ton for reprinting it, guys. :)
What evidence was there that he was a headcase? He always seemed like an intelligent, happy-go-lucky kind of guy, who totally lost his ability to pitch.
Almost all freelance journalists (and other freelancers) have websites to gather and showcase their work, and almost all of their URLs are their names. What would you expect them to be?
Thanks for the answer.
Is TOS a traumatic injury? It seems strange that if the injury has to do with the structure of the body (i.e. not enough space for the veins/nerves), it wouldn't have shown up earlier in his life/career, no?
Except that this article is in fact about the perception gap between Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, while the SI article that you linked to mentions Hanley Ramirez's name exactly zero times.
Playwright22 is gonna kill you for that dangling modifier.
He's caught 34 out of the 70 games that he's played. (Incidentally, it took 8 seconds to find this information.)
Nowhere? It's looking more and more likely that Brett Wallace is among the 99.9% of people who lack the necessary set of skills to be a major league baseball player. He doesn't have to play anywhere.
That would defeat the purpose of its being a top 50, no?
Betances has been wild, but he hasn't been inconsistent. His most recent start was the first time all year he didn't last five innings, and before it he hadn't allowed more than three runs (and had only allowed three once).
Thoughts on Chun-Hsiu Chen (CLE)?
I think it's worth keeping in mind that Harper isn't the only young adult/teenager involved. It's not like the pitcher is 35 years old and coming at it from the same perspective as some of the commenters here. It's also not like Harper put his hand to his mouth and blew a kiss at the guy; that puckering gesture is a pretty common one on basketball courts, soccer fields, etc. these days -- which isn't to say it isn't rude, just not atypical, and probably not as offensive to the pitcher as one might be imagining.
Quick question about concussions. I got knocked in the head playing basketball the other week and when I asked two doctor friends whether my lingering headaches a few days later were because I'd gotten a mild concussion, they both said "It's not a concussion if you didn't lose consciousness." Are they wrong, or is there a semantic/diagnostic point in there that someone is eliding?
Almost certainly, since one (the righty) was a starter and the other (the lefty) was primarily a reliever.
Thanks for the clarification. (And for the -1, whomever that was...)
Ramon Hernandez is on the injured list?
Wild guess... he got on base via one of his three outs, probably a fielder's choice. Ok -- not that wild at all.
I would love for you to identify the place(s) in this article where Larry tried to tell you that you should do anything.
Pee Wee Reese isn't a small guy?
The use of the term "retouch" may be complicating matters some, but I think you've answered a longstanding question of mine, which is: Tie game, man on third, one out, fly ball deep enough that the OF can't throw the runner out at home. Am I right that the OF can't intentionally bobble the ball so as to delay the runner on third from breaking for home (or deceive him into breaking and having to then go back once the "catch" is actually made)?
There is absolutely ZERO way that having or not having Manny Ramirez could possibly be of that great importance to any fantasy team this year.
Why is the answer to this question never to hit the guy 2nd? When was it decided that only slap-hitting second basemen are eligible to bat 2nd? Put a decent OBP with no power (e.g. Tabata) ahead of him, put a solid bat (e.g. Alvarez) behind him. Best of both worlds.
Excellent. I wasn't expecting to be motivated to pull out my copy of "Art in Theory" today, but that just changed.
Plus, I learned that Matt Lawson and Matt Lawton = two different people.
Wow... so much for my plan to grab Smith in R14. You sure you want to keep him, Carl? :)
Is there really a lot of overlap between people who read BPro and people who use Holds as a fantasy category? If so, why?
Listen, Span, nice column and all, but here's what I want to know: You play a fine center field, but is your OBP going to rebound this year? Or was 2009 just a BABIP-driven fluke?
(Can't believe no one else has asked this yet, btw. What were the first 275 comments about?)
+1 for a Brooklyn event
This is basically the idea of the HACKING MASS contest -- wouldn't want to give away the answers before the season even starts.
I'm pretty sure the only thing Josh Thole and Jerry Grote have in common is a long E.
it's sort of like the NL Central is the Delaware republican primary. If "electability" were a concern, the Cards would be a better division-winning representative than the Reds any day.
How would you feel about adding 2 teams, going to 4 divisions of 8, no wild cards? Would the league be willing to sacrifice the wild card revenue for the two-extra-teams revenue, i.e. making the revenue sharing pie larger?
(I know it would dilute talent even further, but as the league expands and picks up more and more players from the international market -- and population grows in general -- this might be minimized somewhat, no?)
In the same vein, the team success bonus might work better if the team is unexpectedly successful, or if the player comprises a certain percentage of his team's overall value (WARP or what-have-you). Cano seems unlikely to get any love from the voters because (a) everyone expected the Yanks to win and (b) they have half a dozen HOFers on that team. Hamilton, Votto... less so.
(or 28, or whatever)
Something's wrong with one of your charts -- Kane Davis never (fortunately, for everyone's benefit) made 31 starts for anyone.
True - last year there was a piece about Mauer (I think) which actually went into the percentage likelihood of his coming out on top in each of the three categories, based on to-date and projected performances for him and his various rivals.
Not really that "gutsy". It makes perfect sense. First of all, he's not pitching well, and hasn't been since June or so. Second of all, the pennant race began April 1, and Leake clearly contributed a ton to it in the first two months of the season. No point running him out there now just because the games seem more dramatic than the equally-as-meaningful ones in April and May did.
Whatever the reason for his absence, why would you prefer a "fresh voice" and/or new "shtick" to, you know, someone who actually knows what he's talking about? If you can point to anyone with as much knowledge and experience talking about baseball injuries as Will has -- even if he's occasionally wrong -- then that's a different story, but here's betting you can't.
There was a mention early on about the 2008 Annual comment that Papelbon needed to maintain his low walk rates. But if he's just going fastball/splitter -- and his walk rates have spiked -- is it accurate to say that he's no longer throwing strikes or is it just that he's doing what he always did and guys are laying off the splitters out of the zone now?
I ask (1) because it might be a generally interesting topic to investigate (i.e. different types of increased walk rates - the Papelbon type, the Steve Blass type); and (2) because it might say something about why Marc's references to Papelbon's SIERA/ERA gap seem to ring hollow to Jay, me, and the previous commenter.
Poets often have a hard time getting work.
Maybe you need other friends?
Fwiw, Lofton went (or didn't go) "gentle", not "quietly".
Don't mess with combination Dylan Thomas-Kenny Lofton fans... I imagine I'm not the only one out here.
Eric, I like the article. I'm not sure I agree with your decision to take as a given that pitchers couldn't be on both the 90s and 00s list. The 00s list seems weaker, but only because you've artificially excluded a bunch of guys who were easily among the best ten pitchers of both decades -- Pedro, Clemens, Randy, Maddux, etc. Imagine what the 90s list would look like if you decided to lump those guys together in the 00s and exclude them from the 90s -- Pat Hentgen? Charles Nagy? Doug Drabek?
1. More for those of us who are in Scoresheet and other leagues that put value on individual and rate stats rather than RBIs, runs scored, wins, saves.
2. Fantasy mailbags are useless. On all but the most obvious of questions (which aren't worth answering anyway), you can't possibly give an informed opinion without knowing full details about the league structure, standings, owners, entire rosters, etc. And even if you can, it's not applicable to the rest of us.
How does Norris compare now to other NL catching prospects like Mesoraco and Rosario?
Does this mean the AL gets home field advantage in the World Series?
Re: Beavan. What does it mean really that he'll be an innings eater in the big leagues? That he's a #3? That he is unlikely to get hurt? It seems to me like "innings eaters" are good but not great pitchers who have a knack for staying healthy. It seems like an odd thing to label someone before the fact.
Regarding the Josh Johnson streak of consecutive starts with fewer than 3 ER allowed -- any thoughts why 8 of the top 17 streaks on that list going back to 1920 have happened in the past 2 years?
Kazmir's still a 26-year old lefty with a track record of success in the not-too-distant past (2005-08, more or less). Milwaukee needs pitching. Even if Peterson weren't there, wouldn't Kazmir be an attractive/logical trade target for them? (Also, I can think of a 1B they could ship to Anaheim in return for a Kazmir-plus package.)
What does the first comment even mean?
You needed to pay for expert analysis to know that Omar Infante wasn't a deserving all-star?
I agree that FanGraphs is more user-friendly, and I also use it because I (for instance) can't find SIERA no matter how hard I try.
But as for "wading through" Courier New font, I disagree -- it (on the DT cards) was the most legible stat presentation BP has ever had, imo.
Will, any thoughts on the Isner-Mahut marathon at Wimbledon, re: injuries, recovery time, possible long-term effects, etc?
Merkle's Howler doesn't really have the same ring to it though, does it?
Thanks Tommy. Must've been a good celebration after the walk-off homer, unless they were unsure who to celebrate with (thinking of the Robin Ventura walk-off GS, where half the Mets mobbed him at first and half gathered at home plate). I also particularly like that after that game, PIT and HOU were in a virtual tie for first place in the NL Central... under .500, more than halfway through the season.
Has a "walk-off" no-hitter ever happened? I.e., scoreless tie through the top of the ninth, with the home team pitcher carrying a no-hitter, and then his team scores to win it in the bottom of the inning, giving him a no-hitter while he's (presumably) sitting in the dugout?
Out of curiosity, can you clarify why Hanigan's injury necessitated moving Dickerson to the 60? Did they need to add Miller to the 40-man roster; do guys on the 60-day not count against the 40?
I think Diane's point was about the sentence construction.
But as to your point, why should Melvin have had any reason to think that Hoffman's skills would decline in his age-42 season as against his age-41 season any more than they declined in his (stellar) age-41 season as against his age-40 season?
Speaking of Rolen, how are his HOF credentials looking?
Pagan's a much better hitter as a lefty, so I think the logical thing to do would be to go with Pagan in CF and Beltran in RF against RHPs (i.e., most of the time) and Beltran in CF and Francoeur in RF against LHPs. Of course, this being (imo) the logical thing means, almost certainly, that the Mets won't do it.
You would have to be driving at 4 a.m. with a speeding police escort to get from Yankee Stadium to the Hospital for Special Surgery in 13 minutes. Just sayin'.
Morganna the Kissing Bandit, to be precise.
Not true. He stabbed her while she was sitting in a chair during a change-over. He might not have crossed the in/out lines, but he wasn't in the stands.
Feliz as long-term closer might be a bad decision for Texas, but that doesn't mean Papelbon in the same role in Boston was a bad choice. Boston won a WS with him back there and has been a top-5 MLB every year of his tenure. And the economics are different -- Boston can bring in a Daisuke or Lackey to round out the rotation; maybe that's not true of Texas.
TV channel f/k/a Outdoor Life Network (OLN). Best known to Tour de France & hockey aficionados.
Do you just mean the platoon splits? Those are at: http://www.scoresheet.com/FOR_WWW/RL_diffs.txt, and if you haven't been using them, your league-mates probably thank you for it. The range ratings are, of course, on the Player Lists.
Alternately, you could be interested in baseball for baseball purposes... and I say that as someone with three fantasy teams, so I'm not dinging you for playing fantasy.
Wouldn't Murcer be an instructive/comparable case even with 5 years before the drop-off, since the last 4 of those 5 were a 4-year period?
Also, there is absolutely no respect in which PECOTA's doubts about the Mets are "ironic", irrespective of where Bill Pecota finished his career.
1. Read the rules closely. There are loopholes to be exploited and factors to account for that you otherwise won't know about.
2. Don't forget about defense.
3. OBP, OBP, OBP (plus SLG).
4. Draft more pitchers than you think you need. You'll need them.
Matt and Eric figured out the factors that are most relevant to predicting future ERA, and SIERA takes all those factors and predicts future ERA more accurately than any other system.
That's really all you need to know.
What fun would it be if he did all the work for you? Don't you want some sense of ownership over your team & the decisions that go in to selecting it?
To nit-pick on the above point, perhaps it's my smallish laptop, but the rollover for SIERA (and QERA, and I think EQA, too) are all too long for one page, and can't be scrolled through. Maybe your rollover pop-up should be wider? Or am I the only one who hasn't figured out a work-around for this?
Out of idle curiosity (and this is mostly a rant, though if anyone has the stats, I'd be happy to see them), how many balls hit the straight-away centerfield fence at CitiField last year between the old 16 foot height and the new eight foot height? None? Five, at most?
This is a ridiculous solution to a non-problem, especially given that the proposed solution -- drawing a line across the fence, rather than cutting it to size -- will just make Citi look even gimmickier than it already is, with the contrived cut out in right field, among other things. In the meantime, the fans still won't be able to see the bullpens, the training staff still won't be able to keep the team healthy, and the Citi Field Jinx (i.e. the fate of the Mets since they started construction in 2007) will continue.
Bring back Shea! (end of rant)
I think that what you're missing is that VORP is calibrated against a replacement player at the same position, so Rollins is better vs. other shortstops than Howard is against other first basemen, even if Howard's raw stats appear better.
I've only ever heard DUKE-sher for a long time now, too, but seriously, where does he get away with just abridging an entire syllable of his own last name? Who's ever heard of a silent "-er"?
Especially since you put in all the effort to spell Rzepczynski right...
Thanks for the link. (Sorry for my laziness in not finding it to begin with.)
Anyway, as a Mets fan, any mention of Oliver Perez comps has me shuddering. I'll take Sheets or Lackey or, hell, even Pineiro.
Out of curiosity, I've read a lot of excited hype about Chapman based mostly on "scouting reports," but didn't Clay do some performance analysis (i.e. translations) a few months ago that had much, much less enthusiastic results?
Given the article a month or two back about how Chapman figures to translate as an MLB pitcher (more or less: not so hot), why would you shoot him to the top of so many teams' top prospect lists?
Seriously? It's Game 6 of the WS between the defending champions and the sport's greatest franchise. The best pitcher of the last 20 years is starting, and Pettitte ain't half-bad, either. There are all-stars and HOFers everywhere you look. And you were bored? You're obviously a baseball fan if you're reading and posting here... what else did you want?
I think we had this debate a few months ago and I came down strongly on the "human element" side, so the point I'll make here is that I think Joe is unfairly setting up a straw man. Yes, I'm writing on the internet, with my microwave and iPhone and rocket jetpack close at hand, but there's a difference between inventions and developments that are improvements and those that are mere progress. I write to you via internet because it's convenient -- in fact, it's the only way I could participate in this discussion. Just because we have technology doesn't mean that using it is an improvement.
Gomez came on for defense. Check, you know, any boxscore online.
One thing that you might need to account for (suggested by the thread about the Orioles, above) is how this fluctuates over the course of a season. Say there was a season in which, hypothetically, Baltimore started out, say, 0-21, and went .500 the rest of the way and finished with 70-75 wins. I'm going to assume that their marginal revenues would be lower than in a season where they started out 30-15, drew fans to the stadium through the all-star break hoping that the early season showing wasn't a mirage, and then faded down the stretch.
I don't think anyone laughs at clutch hitting, just at the notion that it's a repeatable or predictable skill once you decouple it from generally being a good or bad hitter in all situations.
Matt - Very interesting stuff. But it seems like a lot of this can be attributed to guys hitting the ball "hard" when they hit it on the ground (or hitting more line drives), which will hopefully be borne out more by HitFX. Seeing as hitting the ball hard is a prime objective of hitting well, how much is this list bound to be, year in and year out, just a catalogue of the "best" hitters by other metrics, too? These 10 aren't replacement level guys, but mostly all-stars - not just "BABIP All-Stars". Did you predict - successfully or otherwise - high BABIPs for more average (or even mediocre) players? If not, does that suggest a lessened usefulness of BABIP?
Sad to see the Mets' transaction this week mentioned without comment. This is the first time there's been a Stoner in the bullpen since Grant Roberts and Mark Corey left town.
As a follow-up... Will, isn't it just possible that the instinct of [some writer who isn't an expert in injuries] was to ask whether Beltran would be wearing a brace, since that's what some knee-injury-returns require, and that that's how the info that he "won't be wearing" one made it into an article? It might not actually be a signifier of anything much at all.
Antando Gwrbznk? (Just a guess)
Watching the 9th inning on MLB.com, I was struck by how quickly Buehrle was working. Does he always, or was that nerves?
More to the point... I would love to know if there's a correlation between time between pitches and pitcher performance. I don't think that's a data point in MLB Gameday or pitchFX yet. Anyone know if the data exist?
The difference between that one Mets consonant is, at a minimum, two whole syllables. Minaya is believed to have secret data showing that each syllable is worth roughly 5 games in the standings.
A terribly important question: Does Pena have his father's distinctive catching stance, with one leg splayed out to the side?
I don't want to see balls and strikes called by computer. Frankly, if you step back from the trees to see the forest that is the game that (I imagine) you care for a great deal, you probably don't either. There's a great deal lost when humanity, including its imperfections, are removed from human pursuits. (cf. Walter Benjamin -- "That which withers in the age of mechanical reproduction is the aura of the work of art.")
People already object to the length of the delay for TV review of home runs -- and that's peanuts compared to the NFL-style replays we've grown accustomed to. Sure, balls and strikes could be called instantaneously, but what's the use? Why not just replace the players themselves with PECOTA-programmed automatons who are guaranteed to perform to their weighted means?
Arbitrary: "existing or coming about seemingly at random or by chance or as a capricious and unreasonable act of will"
Steroids might be illegal for any number of reasons that you don't think should be the justification for making something illegal -- paternalism (i.e. saving people from themselves); wanting to keep kids from using them; economic reasons (e.g. wanting to dry up grey/black market demand, or wanting to save society the medical costs of dealing with steroid abusers) -- but none of those reasons are "arbitrary."
(If you want to say that the people who enacted the laws making steroids illegal didn't have one of those particularly in mind, fine. That still doesn't make it "random" or "capricious," just poorly thought out.)
Yeah, I think the steroid:multi-vitamin analogy is probably inapt. I'm guessing that Richard was using vitamins as an example of the many, many, many legal methods through which players can boost strength, improve stamina/focus, speed up injury recovery, etc.
I mean, who was it that is having plasma cleaned out and reinjected into his elbow? All good, and all in the name of speeding up recovery time so that he doesn't have to have surgery. I hear the arguments for why steroids are that much worse; I just think most of them (however well-intentioned) are predicated on the idea that steroids are "drugs" and some of these other substances (caffeine, e.g.) and techniques (see above; see also laser-eye surgery and many others) are not.
I agree that some BP authors, and the commentariat, and people elsewhere go too far in apologizing. I'm willing to grant them the benefit of the doubt that, at base, they're making the argument that (1) we can't isolate the effects of PEDs; (2) we can't really draw good lines between "bad" PEDs and neutral-to-good other things; and (3) they'd rather that they, as writers, and we, as readers/peanut-gallerists, could just get back to talking about the game on the field.
I don't know if I'm a steroid apologist, and I can't speak for Richard, but if he (or I) were as hell-bent as you suggest on making this argument go away, I can think of a perfectly good reason that isn't based on defending PED users:
(1) I love baseball;
(2) PEDs suck, but don't tarnish the game enough for me not to love it;
(3) I wish people who talk too much about steroids because it sells (papers/books/ad revenue) would either (a) shut up about it and watch the game, if they actually care about baseball, or (b) just shut up and go away, if they don't.
Really like this piece. Out of curiosity, can we get a link to the "Bill James study of 96 different types of players"? Or is that only available in print?
I don't understand "Gold Glove, whether you agree with the voters or not." Do you think they actually awarded him a golden glove that is going to magically improve his defense this year?
Not to be too critical, but I googled "Khalil Greene" and found all I could possibly have needed to know in 0.12 seconds. BP folks do an awful lot for readers; they shouldn't have to do everything.
It's also worth pointing out, at some level, that Ibanez is only disqualified from consideration through a combination of the "career all-star" and the "advanced statistical metrics" criteria. The guy has averaged 26 HR and 112 RBI the last 3 years, and while this is far from a defense of RBI as a stat, it's obviously one used by the MSM and, thus, by most all-star voters, whether in direct analysis of a player or just in terms of coming to a vague idea of who is/isn't having a good season. So Joe's criteria may be right for his purposes (maybe mine, too), but there are two fronts on which Ibanez has a strong all-star case, if not a compelling one.
Seems to me like this isn't really the point. The point is (1) this DQs Howard from all-star consideration under Joe's metrics, which isn't unreasonable; and/or (2) what you need is someone who can put up better than a 770 OPS against LHP, not against everyone, which would be the point of a platoon. Whether that's worth devoting a roster spot to is colorably debatable.
Not sure if you've been watching Mets games, but that's not an accurate statement. Rodriguez, Stokes, and Parnell have been basically lights-out solid. Putz has been very shaky; Green has been terrible. Omar's big investments in JJ and KRod obscured the fact that Feliciano is the only LHP out there, and with Manuel's horrible lineup/bullpen management, multiple games have already been lost/endangered as a result. Unexpectedly, the potential of getting Wagner back in August or September might mean as much to this bullpen as the off-season signings did. We could use a non-gimmicky (i.e. hard-throwing) LHP out there.
I don't actually think it's reductio ad absurdam, but kudos for spelling it right.
I had the fries last night too, and I generally don't think the prices are unreasonable. That said, the food court is as far as possible from the stadium entrance, at least from the subway/Rotunda side. It took a good 10-15 minutes to get from there, through the crowds, to my seats in the Promenade (upper deck) Level behind home plate on the third base side. Add that to the long, long lines (I only had fries because all the other lines were way too long to bother with, even pre-game), and I can't imagine returning to that part of the ballpark very often at all. Also, did anyone else find it strange that the entirety of left and left-center field was shrouded with smoke from Blue Smoke BBQ by the middle of the game? If that's going to happen every night, well... I'm glad my seats aren't in the left field bleachers.
It's a big over-reaction, but you can't say it's entirely surprising, given that the decision to go with a Dukes-less starting OF to open the season was also based on small sample size, and spring training stats, at that.
On this topic, did the Mets really spend tens of millions of dollars this off-season on Rodriguez so that Bobby Parnell, Darren O'Day, and Pedro Feliciano could be used in the highest leverage situations in last night's game? Don't even get me started on "don't use your closer in a tie game on the road," that basest of canards. For $36 million, couldn't they have spent $39 and gotten Jerry Manuel a subscription to BP?
For what it's worth, Thome's OPS last season was identical vs. LHP and RHP, though it's true that he had some large platoon splits prior to that.
Damn - was hoping to be the first to seize on that Kettle Chips comment. The honey dijon ones taste like over-flavored crap to me personally, but I'm still seething about the discontinuation of Cheddar & Beer, which was clearly the best variety. Sigh...
It seems as though maybe guys on the DL aren't in there at the moment? I noticed Mauer and Smoltz were missing. Great to have Team Tracker available as a resource though, thanks!
According to most of today's reports, Murphy batting second means Castillo is down to 8th, not 7th, with Schneider/Castro moving up a spot.
What, you want it to draft for you? If you use Yahoo or whatever as a starting point, then use this to build on top of that. You're still going to intersperse your own judgment, right? If not, why do you even bother playing?
Neil, you mention that San Jose is "officially San Francisco Giants territory," and I think I understand the rules and history behind that, but is it not also technically Oakland Athletics territory? Say the Marlins wanted to move to San Jose -- would only the Giants have veto rights? And if it's the case that the A's have veto rights too, doesn't that imply that the A's are already existing within that zone -- wouldn't they be able to move without the Giants' blessing (akin to the Mets or Yankees building a new stadium down the block without getting the other's approval, which is clearly different than what would happen if someone else wanted to move to northern NJ, e.g.)?
Fair enough, but I think you're missing a point. With a stat like RBIs, there's likely to be regression, because there's more uncertainty as to the occurrence of the event itself -- that is, there could be fewer runs scored league-wide, or fewer RBI opportunities for top players, and naturally most projection systems (which, as you note, tend to be conservative) account for this.
But the hold statistic, by its nature, is something that should occur with much greater (and more regular) frequency. I'm not 100% sure how it's defined, but in almost any game -- unless the starter works up until the closer comes in, or pitches a complete game -- there is going to be at least one hold opportunity.
Whatever the case, I think the hold is a ridiculous stat, and using it for fantasy seems to me utterly pointless, but that's neither here nor there, really.
Just wondering... your argument that he's being "way too aggressive" is based on the fact that he's predicting a 1.9% increase in holds this year over last for the top 10 in the league?
Hopefully it means they'll keep the recently signed Ron Villone. Not that he's any great shakes, but the pen could use a second lefty.
I did forget Turk Wendell, that's true. I would also dispute whether So Taguchi is more famous than Turk Wendell, but that's not really a point worth arguing. That said, I think that maybe 99 is in a different category than other > 59 numbers; for one thing, there's the Gretzky precedent, and for another, it always seemed to me (especially when the wearer-in-question was the Turk) that it was more of a joke.
To be a bit more specific, numbers worn by legitimate, roster-bound major leaguers never exceeded 59, and rarely exceeded 55. This was at least true (more or less) when I grew up watching the game beginning around '85. Higher numbers were reserved for non-roster invitees, minor leaguers, etc. A few players bucked the trend, most notably Carlton Fisk, who changed from 27 to 72 at some point in his career. (I remember Rene Gonzales - I think - wearing 88 at one point?) Barry Zito was the first player I'm aware of to have begun his career with such a high number and to have stuck with it. Other guys do it now, but to my eye at least it always looks like they don't belong -- more to the point, like they're also unaware of the history/tradition of things. The only other uniform convention I can really think of is that you basically never see a pitcher with a single-digit number -- the only exceptions I can think of are Matt Moore (was that his name?) back in the late 80s or early 90s and Josh Towers, more recently. Look how well that worked out for him. :)
Or you could be patient. Or email Will directly.
Any thoughts or news on what happens to Nate Robertson if, in fact, he\'s not in the starting 5 come Opening Day? Trade? Bullpen? AAA? Release?
Also, the idea that it\'s \"unacceptable\" not to have Top 11 prospects reports by March is lunatic. Based on what standard? That they\'re not ready for your fantasy draft? If he published them in November you\'d object that they were too early, and didn\'t account for the possibility of off-season trades. Come on.
Booooo. (Hi Diane!)
Right, maybe... but who cares? You\'re coming here for good baseball analysis. You get it. If someone wants to throw in (what you believe to be) partisan hackery, too, and it doesn\'t detract from the baseball writing -- why would you care if it doesn\'t feature opposing viewpoints?
Granting you the point that there is occasionally politics thrown in, so what? Does it compromise the statistical analysis? And if you disagree with it, do you not think it is written well? Isn\'t that part of what you come to BP for? If not...
Really? Why would you need that reassurance? Why would the foreword possibly have political content, even if by Olbermann? Did you forget (or were you never aware) that he was first (and, to many of us, remains) an anchor of SportsCenter?
DCJ (and the commenters above),
Do you really think Olbermann was enlisted to write the foreword in order to provide trenchant sabermetric analysis? That\'s what the following 700 pages are for. Olbermann, for all his self-righteous vitriol, is still a smart and funny guy with a huge passion for sports. If his name on the front of BP2009 means it sells a few hundred or thousand more copies to passers-by in Barnes & Nobles around the country, be glad -- it\'ll only make BP better on the whole.
Shark jumped, but nevertheless outstanding. The bacon cheeseburger topped with a fried egg may be the world\'s greatest hangover remedy...
When\'s your birthday, Jay?
February 22 has the dubious honor of having 2 HOFers... neither of whom were players. We\'ve also got one ROY and two 2nd place ROY finishers -- all relief pitchers. Pretty strong bullpen; horrible lineup heavy on the current right side of the Braves infield. It certainly gives the other worst lineup days a run for their money.
With Sparky Anderson (2/22/1934) setting the lineup and Bill Klem (1874) calling the balls and strikes, we can field a team of:
Steve Barber (1960-74; 2-time AS)
Clarence Mitchell (1911-1932)
Tom Griffin (1969-82)
Karl Drews (1946-54)
John Halama (1998-2006)
George Washington \"Jumbo\" McGinnis (1882-1887) (Note: George Washington was wlso born on 2/22).
JJ Putz (2003-present; AS)
Kaz Sasaki (2000-03; AL ROY, 2000; 2-time AS)
Ryne Duren (1954-65; 3-time AS; 2nd in ROY, 1958)
Chet Nichols (1951-64; 2nd in ROY, 1951; led league in ERA, 1951)
Roy Spencer (1925-38)
Bill Baker (1940-49)
Casey Kotchman (2004-present)
Kelly Johnson (2005-present)
Johnny Lucadello (1938-47; played 12 games at SS)
Russ Johnson (1997-2005)
Joe LeFebvre (1980-86)
Mike Rogodzinski (1973-75)
Eric Yelding (1989-93)
DH (must we?)
Frankie Zak (1944-46)
Sorry - to clarify - links to all 30 lists on one page, not the lists themselves.
My only request would be an index page on the site of all 30 lists, once completed, for easier navigation access.
Have the Mets injury problems mostly been the result of having an old and injury-prone roster, or is there something sub-par about the medical/conditioning program? Guys like Maine, Pagan, Castro, Church aren\'t nearly as old as Hernandez, Easley, Alou, Pedro.