CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
No Trumbo love?
I realize he has no place in this list according to the way it was written. However, should I be aroused by Severino Gonzalez? Thanks.
You just proved his point here. Why would they try to quickly lump something together now when they could have teams throwing them packages for months during the off-season?
Right, thanks for the clarification, I was digging deeper. Thank you.
If someone has a link to that Josh Bell story, could you please post it? It's going to drive me nuts and work is always getting in the way.
This wasn't about anything you mentioned up top. Payback for moving, etc..., all that mumbo jumbo.
This was in tribute to Up and In. Jason's team vs. Kevin's team. Nothing more or less.
Yeah I can't get on that train.
Can you write 20 more of these between now and Saturday night? This is perfect for my league type, which is extremely rare.
They didn't make it through the casting process. 1/2 star, but seriously, I like Masterson in later rounds this year. We carry at least 8 SP a piece so Ubaldo Jiminez will also grace someone's roster this year as well.
Sounds like there were times when Brown didn't have great access to the club house.
Is that why it's called a "Sleeper"?
"I have played the “Would you rather?” game with Dickey"
All trades are salary dumps, correct. This one happens to be prettier than most. So many angles you could approach it from.
Sure say arsenal a lot for a coys fellow.
Jason....."So Kevin, who's your guy?"
Kevin......"I like Hanson, the little guy who can hit."
Also, is Tony Sanchez worthless at this point?
I think both writers really summarized both positions of the deal with precision.
Whether the Royals should have made this trade is debatable, but do not confuse that argument by making Shields and Davis into punch lines. They’re better than that. —R.J. Anderson
A Shields and a Davis do not just grow on trees no matter what weenie numbers are thrown out there. Is it Kershaw and Broxton (circa Cy young)? No, but that doesn't mean they suck.
This is why depth is so vital to the overall process, because even if this trade explodes in the Royals’ faces, they still have a healthy crop of talent growing towards the major league sun. —Jason Parks
Again, if someone who works in this avenue says the Royals can afford the deal, who cares? They are dealing from a position of depth and other teams are not simple because they do not have the embarrassment of riches.
In the grand scheme, the Royals are taking on roughly $9 million for a front line starter and a solid RP who might be more than that. That increases to roughly $16 next year. In what universe is that a rip off? Any team with a decent operating revenue would take that in a second.
Finally, as a fan of the game, I would like to say that I'll take this deal, any day of the week, over the "salary dump".
None of the players on their roster are true CF so I believe that his acquisition is the attempt to fill the gap.
I also agree with you that the deal is bad.
You are the weakest link. Good bye.
Agreed, well done.
Not to say I disagree with KG, but to put things into perspective. Juan Pierre, Michael Martinez, John Mayberry Jr., and Lance Nix all showcased in the outer part of the field yesterday. Really hard to not get excited about false pretenses.
Master baited by his out pitch, Tribe score one in the win column.
Going to have to read this again tomorrow, without a drink in my system. Looks fascinating, but the scotch prevents absorption.
Can you do this every day one of them pitches?
I just got off of [redacted].com. It said, "Don't tell a good looking young lady of your impending divorce within the first hour of conversation." You slice into your writing like false 11, every time, all the time. Well done.
I am glad that you like to look at spreadsheets. Well done.
I would pay to hear that conversation.
His team was losing. If they were winning he would have jumped up and did the dry air hump.
Free lead-based paint chips with the seats.
I enjoyed the article, as always. However, I am chiming in on the Zooperstars. It's everything that is great about America and proves that you can make money no matter how insane the idea is. They have a website as well as a contact us. Naturally, special guest time.
McCourt should be subjected to the same statutes that criminalize Ponzi schemes. For the record, I don't even like the Dodgers.
I would prefer Dominic Brown, however, I am just happier than horse shit that you have stopped saying you can't write. Well done, that was Vertonghen shutting down Silva at White Hart.
The Julian Assange of BP.
What's up with all the lines? Just curious, I wondered it the entire read, which I enjoyed thanks.
Did you have money on the game?
Excellente! Did you get any fielding film? Also, his gait is that of a Westminster champion. Just effortless and silky smooth.
Also, what does his ability to switch hit mean? Will he be able to maintain that through his progression and do you know what's been thrown on the hit tool?
That was excellent. You are like the google of strange baseball statistical scat. Well done.
I was looking forward to a curse. However, I will surely root for Jake or Jason this evening.
SEA OBP. Insane.
I always wonder how long it takes to create those.
Morality Minus Police got you!!!!!
I agree with you, but then again I like anything that Kevin writes because he can always inject nuggets of information that I would never know otherwise. It's why I pay for the site. I thought your tone was fine, but apparently you require sensitivity training.
I will not miss Monday's matchup. Based on your record, and I would never disagree with you, that's going to look like a High Desert game by 3:35.
I am currently sharing the 56k modem line with 1000's of people.
Listened for the first time today. It's good, really good, not normal fantasy bullshit which I greatly appreciate. Just to let you know the podcast is actually listed differently now, in itunes, than when I initially downloaded it. The only reason I didn't listen sooner was because off the second episode I didn't see any new material. Thankfully the doldrums of travel allowed me to listen to episode two today. Highly recommend for any fellow fantasy pricks.
Second that, really look forward to reading this every day. Especially when I am on the road and out of touch.
I really enjoy how you curse at least one of the two pitchers in the best slated pitching match up.
Thanks, that would be awesome.
Is there any chance that BP will have an app that would allow a user to just read the articles?
He is locked in.
Dale Thayer, closer mentality since 2003.
Not trying to sell Nick, but he had surgery over the offseason which could have sapped his power last season. I certainly do not think he is going to go Hamiltinion on us, but him hitting 20 homers is not unfathomable to me.
No off days. Great way to start the day.
Just curious, what are your thoughts on Dirks?
Is there video of that KGJ shot?
How in the world did you come across this fact? Second, I would not bet on Ron Gant, however, I would say they have a ton of the misprinted world series champs shirts.
Will you be at the event amazin?
Colonel, going to be a long season. Regardless of numbers and hindsight being 20/20, I still do not understand how they have not let Dom Brown get up and get some ABs this season. I don't care about his defence at this point. We have worked through Raul and Pat, he will do.
Shocking that you would like a 2B that can really hit. Good info. Thanks.
Haha, I literally forgot, since last night. I reread the entire article and wondered what the hell you were talking about. That only compounded the funny! Thanks.
I did not know this. Thank you.
That was a good one. Also, I did not know about Becks. Not touching Cook though.
Your brain is disturbed and that's why I enjoyed it. Thank you.
Not sure why, but I picture Quentin Tarantino sitting there punching away at the keyboard. For your next installment, could you please invert the days a la Pulp? Reader request.
By the way, the ump was the best.
The answer is in your question. Click on Ben Sheets and read the annual comments. That page will also take you vastly more in depth if your curiosity gets the better of you, especially at work.
I really hate the minus police on here. I mean, those are automatically the first comments I read. Ben, you are quite disturbing, I really really really enjoyed that article. Thank you.
Excellent, thank you.
Are you not Jim Tracy?
I am personally glad that it's not a million miles away that we are talking about.
Could not make the last two years because of just horrible timing. Looking forward to this year. Thanks.
I agree, I think it's ridiculous. And his comment is absolutely accurate considering the way in which our political system works.
That would be a great excuse to bail on an unwanted event. Sorry, wife is on the 60 day DL, hairline.
What exactly is Homer coming back for? Doesn't a player need to get there before they can come back? Not to discredit his skill-set, but he hasn't put together a full season yet. Maybe the out of options player of the year?
Couple that with their offense which has taken a steady decline. I agree.
Good old Nolasco and Morrow. Dual Breakout, Season III.
Also, I must have missed this. Do we have any indication how the Miami Aquarium will rank in parkish factors?
The minus police got you! Apparently you need to treat the questions as if this was Jeopardy. Kevin answers the statement with a question.
Ditto on Cuddyer for me.
LOL. Yeah that would be a real value pick.
Also, I feel like I have read this article on here before? Am I completely insane?
I like the Jaime suggestion. Sort of like a poor man's Latos.
Sounds like someone has 50 grade hand strength. I thought most Texans were born at least plus?
Sorry but the only thing I am touching in this group is the only untainted quantity in Cozart. All those other guys are classically over valued by PECOTA in my estimation. Not that I am saying PECOTA is useless, because I love it like the brother I never had. However, in my league format, when you don't show up for months on end, it kills you. Just looking through their splits over the last few years, all three of those guys are simply not worth owning for three months out of the year, even in deep leagues.
Add EE to that list as well, but you don't cover third.
Are you kidding me? He just said he would buy him for a dollar. How in the world could you spin that as being anything but a low risk?
I have no agenda, just some simple question. Why is it that we always ask the question on the makeup of a player heading to NY? Can they handle the spotlight of the media, fans and still produce at their career average? Then, the player fails for a specified amount of time in NY and we suddenly forget that he could be headed back to his comfort zone. Pavano and Vazquez are just two that quickly come to mind but they also exist in the prospect world.
The only thing I am saying is that he is an extremely advantageous value pick. The ROI on him this year could be insane. While I don't think he will be top 25 or anything, it would not remotely shock me if he has production in the top 50 arena, potentially higher if you are in a league where W/L are not categories.
"I feel like your growing fanbase is based on legit insight but still is yet to translate into you being any better than Blog Writer X in picking stars."
Please let me know when you find Blog Writer X that provides more information than Country Mouse.
Mr. Kennedy, if you feel like you can do a better job why don't you go for it? You seem to think you have a vast knowledge and great understanding of the job at hand.
Chris Sale is coming up for me as pitching 168 innings and striking out 198. Strasburg is projected to throw the same amount of innings with 184.
I don't hate the peak 27 year old as much as I hate the "Contract Year" fallacy.
I like that he called his Jewish friend.
Kevin, could you please poll these same people on a very important question? Would they post a link to an article on social networking site that was ultimately behind a pay wall? A yes vote goes to KG and no vote goes to Cespedes.
Great stuff, and I always like how people inside the game quantify defense. However, regardless of defense, seems like the votes always go to the hit tool. Which really is the order in which this turned out. Kudos KG.
Anyhow, I would love to see the other end of the spectrum. Who kills Strong pitchers? The players who make me think are Stanton and Arencibia. They are still under 1000 career plate appearances which means they have some time to adjust before they are the player they are. What that means, I don't know, but it makes me wonder if it could be a good thing?
Also, I am assuming someone else selected the picture for the front page other than Jason? If the body and athleticism are project-able, with a better picture, ZDAR and fZDAR could easily lock it up for Taijuan.
Guillermo Pimentel 80 Name and Power.
Sheeeet. Good old Snider and Rasmus are still under 25.
Also, KG, if you were to extend the three stars players into the remaining "Nine More", where is the line demarcation?
Gooden and Strawberry? Great question.
The only thing I could never get from the team page at BP was the schedule. Not that it's crucial, but there are many times where I would go to Yahoo by default for schedules.
Jason, you are a psychological mess. Reminds me of all my friends. Well done.
Not sure if I missed this somewhere along the line but how did you determine which random players to select for these articles?
Lost LF eligibility. Game over.
Do you have a link to the entire mock?
CRP12, not sure if you will check this but, I NEVER include bags using PECOTA. Wayyyyyyyyyy overvalued. Better off getting rid of them and then adjusting ranks yourself based on who you like. That's just what I do, bags burnt me horribly one year.
I am thinking special sausage made guest appearance. Similar to annual project, I am always interested in hearing how that operates. My profession in no way correlates which is why it's interesting to me.
It's always the porn stache. You are overvaluing the tie.
You forgot to put Ichiro in the rotation......
I am sensitive to sensitive people.
I would make him take a UA and Blood Test before I signed him. Also, I don't think there is any inherent value in leg pressing 1300 pounds, unless you want to competitively body build. He keeps that up and he will age like who he reminds me of, Vlad.
It just starts off bad, before you even click play, it appears at face value that I am going to get a virus.
Haha, Howard is actually his middle name and they probably have about the same mobility at this point.
That's like asking a weather man to predict the stock market accurately. You want him to clean your house as well?
I have always loved the top ten under 25. Absolutely amazing how "old" the team got in just two years. Must have been nice to compile that list!
If everyone liked you, something is wrong. Thanks for bringing some humor here. It had a country club atmosphere here previously.
So I was waiting on the Bison reference but I guess that would be too obvious.
Do you really think that Guzman is 16 and were you able to have him Carbon dated on your trip?
I would not consider the season series to be of value. Phils had clinched when they played a four game series a few weeks ago and I would not say their were managed to win every game. I guess it just adds another talking point.
Why are the Cards not getting Jaime Garcia in there with the Phillies lineup? It makes no sense to me at all. All he has ever done is owned the Phils, much line many quality and sub par LHP do. Any ideas?
CRP, I don't have the link off hand, but there is a page that exists with all the episodes, their length, and a DL button. I would guess it took him less than 5 minutes.
James Paxton was Pato Barca. Brilliant, thanks for sharing.
Great breakdown. Kershaw is having quite a season which makes me wonder about another question.
For pitchers with such success at a younger age, obviously their burnout rate is going to be high, just because they are good at a young age and it's harder to maintain consistency through 15 years vs. say 7. Where as it took Lee until he was 29 to really stabilize.
Without considering cost, is it better to have a guy who has great success when he is younger or older?
That video is great.
I often thought about the same thing. My guess is that it has to do with their internal calculations. It's just my thought, but I would assume that they all have different calculations on defining what a "dead" league is. I think that's what always makes the numbers disparate.
Then you have Kotchman and Guzman, and their numbers make no sense whatsoever. I always read these articles for just this exercise, glad you mentioned it.
That's not to say I don't enjoy the content because the streaks of Carps and Guzmans are always interesting.
Professor questions his arm. Not sure how CF will help with that one? They should have read his SS write up prior to the move.
I think that before the end of the season Ellis will be on this list twice more. I am in a deep mixed league where he is always on the cusp of being picked up, and provided an injury, he is. He is always the most productive 2B on the wire, not that it means anything with you are talking about an offensive crater of a position. Coors field will make him like the stock market and you will play the Federal Reserve. Enjoy Henry.
Hahaha! There's the mental....if he can only stay healthy.
98? Velowhoredom! That's just insane Kevin.
Great write up. I really enjoyed that article.
Proper name to start off on.
Is there an ability to record shows on SiriusXM? Obviously I know it's possible through a number of means, but is it inherent in their technology?
I wish I could nominate you for an award of some sorts. Brilliant, this is Van der Vaart, 90th minute ftw, Old Trafford, 2nd Leg following a draw, Champions League Semis.
Just based on this, does this justify the Pirates taking Cole at one? I know it was not the "wrong pick" per se, but is the ceiling the reason he went one, more than likely?
I think I saw Altuve at Wawa this morning while I was getting my daily cup of Joe. He was two people in front of me in line and on his cell phone, which is why I did not want to interrupt him. He paid with a CC, so when I got up to the register I asked the clerk if that was in fact Altuve. Unfortunately she could not disclose that confidential information, she gave me a funny look, and I rode into work dreaming that I may have had my brush with the legend. I am glowing.
I LaPortaled three weeks ago and I am happy I did. Certainly more potential than any of the other slop out there that has proven futile many times over. I just wish he would get more consistent PT and moved up in the order a bit, but that will come if he hits more consistently.
Since I can't plus you, here it is.
Rating: 1 (+/-)
Porcello could either be more readily available after tonight or he could graduate your list.
SHUT THE FRONT DOOR! Why? I had to get on twitter to follow Will, so now onto you. I always enjoyed what you did here and will continue to do so via twitter. I was planning on giving you slack for not taking the next in line in the Bautista positions.
Don't know if you saw the Howard AB, but Cordero knew that was gone before it left the infield. May not be that surprising in Philly, but it was to CF, which are slightly harder to hit there.
Melancon FTW last night as well.
I don't know, I am asking. Are we talking capacity % or total attendance? They had one of those cookie cutters that left you a mile away from the game in the expensive seats.
Provided they keep their youth, I see only one reason to keep a player who has a higher salary and not give another young guy a shot. At some point they are going to need to sign Free Agents and no one will want to go there for a long term deal with the idea that they may be traded in 7 months. That's really the only reason I can see them wanting to hang onto the older guys.
I always ask myself what I read when I finish reading. In this instance, what I read was really baseless and without merit but I wanted to read more and I was sorry that it was over. That's talent and I would read about your visit to the grocery store.
With that being said, there were a few authors lost here in the last year which made me question my subscription. No longer. You had me at adventure got legs. That's some real morale especially when you know you are going into a large rolling petri dish for ten hours. As a wise man once said, "I'm alone, she's alone, why not bug the living sh!t out of her?" Next time sit next to the girl.
I always enjoyed these as well. I have read some classic stuff in the QAs here. Just happy I can follow it along.
Pretty soon all my favorite writers are going to be free content.
What's your take on Juan Rivera?
My theory is that they will be in deep dung here shortly. They really need to get Shane out of CF before he hurts himself. Unfortunately, they will not and he will miss time within the next month or two. Then they basically have no established production across the board.
They should shift Shane to right, get Ben or Brown in CF, and then piece meal and play the arm in LF.
I think the other nice thing about the Wolf man is that he is not facing the opposition's best this year either. Not that it always lines up that way, but when reshuffle the cards after AS break he will be the 4. Last year he was expected to the the anchor of that rotation with the contract and after Gallardo could not sustain health. I'm sure that mentally it plays a part in his brain after that big contract. Who knows, I own him in everything and banking on some 2009 numbers.
While it may have been dumb, I just dumped Esmil for Javier in my league. I have read nothing positive about Javier, but if he can get it remotely going, the NL East maybe the worst offensive division in baseball from top to bottom. At least that's what I tried to tell myself.
Good info. I referred back to this article this morning when I got to work.
It was great foreshadowing.
Well, for the Dodger's fans sake, hopefully Selig reads this.
Went to three stadiums last year for games and basically sat in the same general location. I personally wanted to sit in the OF at all three games, close to the wall.
Seattle- RF, three seats behind Ichiro against KC. $20/per.
Texas, left center bleachers next to the visiting pen against Tor in April. 6 rows off the field $10/per.
Philadelphia- 13 rows off LF behind Raul, $85. I guess that helped sign Cliff Lee?
Well one would hope and I agree. Werth had similar issues before he went full time.
Also, there is no way Ibanez is in the lineup all year and Victorino will take a tour or two. I think he can get the ABs.
So quick question for you. Does the story change on Francisco if he gets 550 ABs? I'm not implying that he will be a juggernaut, just asking if he will be worth more than about the median owned fantasy OFer?
It's officially unofficial. Charlie always gives him first dibs at the position but he usually fails in that role. You can definitely bet on him getting the first crack. Usually he presses out there and his fastball becomes a rope.
Vlad was also added to the O's roster. For some reason his player card still reads Rangers........
Always interesting, just good to see some fresh numbers, even if they are a facade.
He made 92 million in 16 seasons, from just team salary. Not sure what is left to itch and not going to win a WS there.
Only you can write that much about Jason Grilli. It's a gift.
What fitting book ends
Sultans of pork smoke and brew
Hamrahi can smile
Great idea, one quick question and something I always struggle with. Where did you come up with the arbitrary number to make the demarcation per category? How did you determine that? I normally sort the entire PFM dump and always struggle with where my green and red start.
I want to say that when I originally read this, there was no chart? I love the chart and my PFM looks very similar to this, but per my stat categories. I did not think to isolate by position to kind of dig for gold, which is really easy to do in one fell swoop of selecting categories. Needless to say, I love the idea because the color just makes the PFM look all the more interesting and it's nothing more than sorting and shading. Hopefully I can employ this to find some random gems at other positions. Also, the other thing I do is mark people yellow, for injury risks, and or pitchers who have any sort of discomfort at the end of last year or during Spring Training. Thank you MLB_ID.
Great idea, one quick question and something I always struggle with. Where did you come up with the arbitrary number to make the demarcation per category? How did you determine that? I normally sort the entire PFM dump and always struggle with where my green and red start.
Another one that I saw just on Saturday was now playing for the Phils. Josh Barfield. I am no maven, just thought it was interesting to see his name again.
fflakes, this is also a popular conversation in our league as well. We own almost all fourth starters and maybe about half of the fifth starters in the league.
I don't know that there is a correct answer to your question, but there are two major factor involved in my opinion. First, what are your categories? For us, we use Wins and Losses, which kind of offset each other. Needless to say, it influences the quality over quantity. Many times managers in my league have deployed that strategy and there are weeks where they get killed in Losses, ERA, and WHIP. So really it just depends on the categories.
Second are the values of players relative to draft position. I know that auction is more authentic and accurate in terms of player values, but in a straight draft, the bat talent disappears quickly. Needless to say, there are some excellent pitchers available pretty late in drafts.
Once I determine who I would like to target, I am pretty diligent in looking through split stats for both bats and pitchers for two reasons. Of course it's a long season, so there will be struggles. But, what I look for are huge deltas between peaks and valleys. Troy Tulowitzki is the easy example just because he had one of the best months of the year in 2010. Then there is the issue of how long and wide that valley is. And finally, for pitchers, I especially look at playoff time. Have they been strong in September traditionally? It also helps me with my unhealthy addiction to younger pitchers with high K rates.
I just completely ignore SB in PFM and rely on my PECOTA spreadsheet for bags, generally later in the draft. As for your RBI issue, personally, I would run the numbers with and without RBIs and see what happens. It may pop up a few names that surprise you and from there you will know what expect in terms of their RBI production.
My league roster is 29 mixed league, but it's a head to head and insanely pitcher heavy. If there was a cap on innings like a standard league, we would all exceed it before the all star break. Just preference really.
In terms of his analysis, keep in mind that he has to appeal to everyone who is playing fantasy. I know quite a few people who play in the standard roto format, referred to above, but they are NL or AL only leagues. When you have 10 teams with 5 OF per team, pickings get slim.
I don't see Polanco on here either?
We use them and actually everyone is universal in that they like it, because it's generally easy to find.
Is it to late to ask for rate stat columns to be included in the future rankings?
Looks good and I am really glad that you have Ka'aihue ranked properly.
Are you setting your dollar values to the negative? In the past, when I had issues with my parameters, I just decreased the dollar amount. If I was at -$5, I went to -$10 and it did the trick.
Lefty as ever with Werth gone.
No complaints from me, just ironic when that is the conclusion. As I sit here working with the press conference on MLB.................
So read an article about nothing. This is like Buddhism.
If you need any beta help.....
How endearing, "Think of him as a slightly better version of Kyle Kendrick."
Also, another quick question. What exactly can the mini browser tell me? Sometimes they make sense or look comparable and other times they appear to be reaches. Like Harden and Garcia, I know they share the common ground of rehab, but beyond that..... Is that the point on the mini or is it something else?
Agreed and this is something additional to chew on until we plug in our league data. Bats look really ugly this year and pitching is in abundance which is great because a guy like Max is huge value relatively speaking.
Depends on whether or not you trust their company above. I would say that the Reds are about the only members who could potentially be on this list if it was accurate.
Great question. It would be really cool if it compared to the exact season. Like Jamie Moyer, '89. Not a necessity, but it would be cool to get lost in baseball seasons. I know I would go from comp to comp to comp to comp with no real purpose or care really. Just interesting reading.
I don't need this right now, but it's a good read. Thanks.
Sweet and thanks!
Workload and the AL East. Pitching is just so deep this year, these are all great points. At relative value, if you are in a mixed league, no reason not to get a safer pitcher.
Any faith in Harang this year?
Maybe I didn't have enough coffee yet today..... "we'll be providing uniform ID codes with all of our projection materials"
What does that mean?
Oh boy, Bavasi. He never stops.
I don't disagree.
Very nice read, again. I know I said it before twelve times but I really appreciate these.
So are you going to give Bruce the death blow and throw him in 5 star?
Not that I disagree, because they were disgustingly close.....
PECOTA absolutely loves the stolen base. I think it's so skewed that I actually leave it out of my stats when using the forecast manager. But even looking at last year's percentiles, they are still insanely close, even with the bag projections. It's a great question.
Love it. Great write up.
Thanks and yes, I wanted to know where I can get that stat.
I am going to guess that it was because he was 2/7 in that range last year.
Nice write up. Morrow also owned an absurdly large BABIP of .348.
Anyhow, where can I isolate FIP at?
Yeah, looks great. I like this write up more than the first. Pun intended. Also, I know it's premature, thoughts on Walker? Better off staying away or should produce relative to value or draft position?
Agreed. Liked that.
Also, again, thanks for being the only accountable fantasy projection person on the planet.
Like the content and really enjoy how you review your rankings from the prior year.
Please keep the positions together in one article per.....
Splitting of the OF per position is extremely helpful.
To piggyback what a few other people said, if you are targeting certain players who may be a great value in the draft, can you please tell us how you are isolating those metrics?
Do not draft, I know last year you hated Cueto, which I think is great and I stayed away from him. Other than burying those guys on the list, can you just provide us a list of who you are staying away from?
Thank you. I spend a lot of time telling my friends that Blanton does not suck. Apparently he sucks but it's easy to forget Moyer had an 6.5 ERA going into July. That and his company is pretty wealthy.
I really hope they don't eat anything.
Considering that there is not a huge reaction when they clinch a playoff berth, I am going to assume Pena's not reaction worthy.
I would have to agree.
Insider Story. I was trying to find the connection, ESPN, there it is.
May be a stupid question but, how did you arrive with the NY vs. NY numbers?
Harper won't talk to the media by age 23. Maybe sooner.
My guess is that the managers would argue the 20 second infractions enough times to recoup that 3-4 minute time span.
Good read, and I agree it needs to be sped up. Lest not forget, the quicker the game, the less time McCarver and Buck get to talk.
Agreed with the groinal reply. Also, I really think that had Halladay hauled it to first, Posey could have made a cleaner play to third. While I realize he is not nimble, Panda may have instantly went back to the bag as opposed to standing on the line and looking like he was waiting for his bundle of bamboo.
Everyone knows the NL is the minor leagues of baseball. All good FA's end up in NY, BOS, or Anaheim.
Well considering that no one replied to this, I am going to have to assume that the Commissioner's Office called and BP got muscled. No big deal, I just find it odd that this, as well as the original Quotes article, is extremely ambiguous. This post makes zero sense. Let's go through this, and by all mean, I am open to criticism, that's why we are here.
"Mr. Selig has long been an advocate of baseball journalism"
Right, he is fabulous.
"Thus, the last thing we would want to do is damage the media's relationship with him."
So, are you worried about your quote or Sherman's quote?
"In the story, we quoted Selig as telling the New York Post's Joel Sherman that he was ordering Mets owner Fred Wilpon to hire Sandy Alderson, currently working as Major League Baseball's point man on corruption in the Dominican Republic baseball system, as the franchise's next general manager. However, that was not the case."
Operative words are "ordering" and "not the case".
So, what is the case?
"This what Selig actually told Sherman: 'He would bring the Mets an intellect they have been missing plus instant organization, credibility and the perception throughout the game that the general manager—and not ownership—is running the baseball operations. None of the other candidates can do this. So if the Wilpons do not pick Alderson now they should know the first reaction is going to be that they will be giving their fans more of the same."
Ok, sounds good.
This is what your line originally said.
—Commissioner Bud Selig, advocating the Mets hire Sandy Alderson. (Joel Sherman, New York Post)
Please let me know, if Selig is not advocating Alderson, what is he doing? Mind you, all of this could have been perceived as nothing, had Selig not stated, "None of the other candidates can do this". You guys are smart, part genius in my opinion, and I think my membership is worth every penny that I pay. Why was this clarified? Are we missing something?
Alright, this isn't getting much play. Why did BP apologize? Did MLB Corporate offices call this morning or something?
That was the quote that was in there this morning. Verbatim, I saved it.
Again, I still don't think this is appropriate for him to comment on, especially in this manner. I really have no idea what the apology is for. I do not see this in a different light and I certainly don't think that BP is in any way at fault.
Look at unfiltered.
Should Selig be allowed to say that? I know he can, but I just think that is way out of line. Am I wrong?
I am kind of shocked to see Bell and Wilson on that list. Bell more so, and not that I look at the numbers every day, but I just would not put him in any kind of conversation for improvement. Considering his 4 from last year is higher than a lot of pitchers in the list, I guess it just reinforces how dominant he was this year. Interesting.
I echo the disagreements here, but at least there is a logic behind the madness. Maybe and adjusted weight scale per division record might make more sense. Couple that with the uneven figurative "baseball rivalries" and some teams definitely have tougher draws. Obviously any teams that have to play the better AL teams every year should get some points knocked off or added if you will. And I may be reading this wrong, but it just not make sense to me for the top NL teams to be punished for having the Pirates, Nationals, D Backs, and Cubs.
Will, how can follow you moving forward?
In terms of my membership, I appreciated your columns the most. That's not to say I don't enjoy other facets of the site, I just enjoyed your insight the most. With that came years of knowledge, research, and hard work.
I would follow your work any place you decide to go. What's the manner in which I can follow you or figure out where you will be spending your time?
I am sure the middle relievers that Wade will pick up this off-season will be enough to push the Strohs to the promise land next year. Because really, that's all they need.
Great read, if nothing else he has an interesting mind and ability to convey his thoughts.
Guys, I can see both of your points on that front. I do not use dollar amounts. Based on playing the system to come up with the calculations I need for my drafts, I could definitely see that as being an issue with the system.
Another item, and I know this will fall on deaf ears, because no one ever really responds. A forum where people who use the software could talk would do wonders for both the system, and the customers. It might put PECOTA into the proactive category as opposed to the reactive category. I understand it's complex, I read the article.
Couple of PECOTA experiences.....
While I know it's not perfect, I nailed it this year. First off, pitchers have been stellar for my entire duration of using the software. I never once had an issue and we run 12 teams, 10 starters per. Some teams slightly more, some less.
Bats, I have had issues with this before. I flat out ignore any PECOTA SB projection. Way over valued in my opinion. I just think there is way too much weight put on SB, and especially as categories increase. The more you have, the more they should dilute, and they do not. But again, I worked around that and just ignore them. I learned my lesson last year on that one.
Other than that, you are going to have injuries and bad luck in baseball. For the most part I think the projections were decent. The system allows you to identify value through the later rounds, which is generally what you need to win leagues.
I was brought to BP through PECOTA, via the fantasy baseball side of the house. Through a couple of years worth of data and working with the numbers provided here I have come to a few conclusions.
First off, anyone who has abandoned PECOTA, I think you have put too much faith in the system in the first place. If this was an exact science, every member of the staff would have retired by now.
Finally, from all of my preparation, I don't think any one person or site has nailed fantasy coverage or projections. Ultimately, I just don't see how people can put blind faith into anything, be it PECOTA, CHONE, ZIP, or any other flavor of the month.
I would get out of the Ravine and head to the other LA of Anaheim or SD. Great article.
Thank you for the articles all year. I always enjoy reading them despite the fact that I need to stand pat 97% of the time. Next year, it may not be a bad idea to include a jump ship section, which would be equally as interesting as the antithesis of these articles. Be it injury, fatigue, horrible protection, or maybe a platoon situation, could be interesting.
I have a tough time not taking the Royals or the M's.
I am not asking for fun, we use this many pitchers. By the time you write your piece, a guy was already owned 2-3 starts prior. Also, useful nuggets though, so thank you.
Again, just by me mentioning him means that if he is adequate, he is ownable. Masterson and Parra are my two weak pitchers at the moment.
Sorry for attaching to this. I saw Vedder and must have lost my mind.
Yellow Led was the first think that came to mind when I read that.
"so as with many injuries at this time of year, getting a pure injury read is very difficult and the timelines really can't be trusted"
For a team like the Brewers, why?
Worst pain, two part. Kidney stones and two broken ribs, one on the side and the other on my back. Different kinds, but I would not recommend either.
Hellickson, wow did he look good. I was able to catch the game at my friend's house.
Interesting article. Could you expand upon this to include the playoffs?
Think of it this way. Lee for one season and no Halladay.
You can get Halladay for 3 at a great rate, but there is no extra money to spend. Aka, you need to dish Lee or Blanton on short notice.
Now, from a layman's perspective this is an easy choice. When you factor in the return on investment of Haren, Oswalt, and Lee this year, you see how difficult it is to get ROI. Let alone on short notice when everyone in the world knows you are gearing to rip them off.
I am simply trying to state this. We all know that hindsight is 20/20. What's the differentiation in what you get in return for what you are dealing? I think that this season has proved multiple conclusions. Varying lengths of contracts and the SP market are not quantified.
I am merely stating that with the Phils operational budget, I think that he made the right moves. I will take Halladay at three over Lee at nine plus unknown. I also think that is what Amaro was presented with. I could be horribly wrong and I realize this. Just my opinion.
I was in the army and there was always talk about what you would do in this situation or that situation. 97 percent of the time it was life or death. Kill or be killed. Every time we were asked what we would do and everyone had an answer. Ultimately, we can all talk circles, some of us just sound more intelligent than others. The bottom line is that you never know until you are in the situation. I could be insane, but my entire issue with the situation is that I don't know the position Amaro was in. And I will never know, I realize this.
I am not talking other deals either. Because if you want to get into bats, I think he made some horrible decisions. I am merely talking the Lee/Halladay situation. I am not bringing in the other folks to the conversation. Certainly not retreading how Ibanez and Polanco play into this because it's all a giant bucket. I am just trying to speak from a pitching perspective.
Greg, you can call me wrong all you would like, I only care enough to tell you that you are wrong. Cost certainty may be easy for the layman to comprehend, but to think short-sighted could be detrimental in the business world. It's easy to throw around hypotheticals with a concrete house of cards.
Thank you for entertaining my thoughts CK.
When you starting look at this more and more, I think that Amaro was pressured to get rid of Lee because of team dollars. When you look at it from another perspective, your choice is to do the following.
Sign Halladay for three years at a reasonable rate. In the meantime, you have to either get rid of Blanton, who is arb eligible, or Lee since you already know his price point is in the Halladay range.
Or forget Halladay and lock up Lee.
If ownership was forcing his hand, he certainly made the right decision. When you look at the team budget, this makes even more sense. At this point, they are clearly over their threshold for payroll in terms of their baseball operating budget. Amaro maybe be a lot of things, but he certainly is not in charge of the US Mint in Center City Philadelphia.
While I realize last offseason is relevant, when you get Oswalt for this deal, it's good business. Say what you want about Lee not being in Philly and how they are not good enough.
Last time I checked, Lee didn't pitch until May 5th. Also, the Phils have not had their starting 8 since the first week of the season. Last night the team was without Utley, Rollins, and Victorino. They are not good enough because of injuries, not because Lee is gone.
Ditto as a Phil's fan. Of course we are both morons. Very happy about this.
In terms of the Werth backlash, I would say a vast majority of the city thought the guy in the stands was wrong. I will say that after the inning was over, I kind of expected Werth to head over and say something to the guy. Werth did light him up.
A couple suggestions and things I would greatly appreciate.
1. Forum. I really think this would be a positive thing for the site. If you had a message board where other could discuss articles, continue to dive further into topics, and your readers could prove to provide some pretty valuable content as well. Just look at the articles that get a lot of comments. They would be very frequently traveled sections of the forum and it's not technically challenging to support it. It would also be a great asset to contributions to the cards with lineups, playing times, rotations, and general team discussion. Game threads, prospect information, team pages, it would develop into a community and communities in a community. Ultimately any information you have can be linked to the message boards and vice versa.
I just think you are missing a large market out there and if managed properly it can be a huge asset.
2. Numbers explanations. I read all these articles on numbers, new calculations, and just isolating numbers on a specific person for comparative purposes. Numerous times I have gone to the numbers via to stat page and I feel like I am trying to learn a new command line. Some type of tutorial on how to isolate data or information pieces would be great. I know it's not the most interesting thing in the world to write about, but I would really appreciate it.
Not quite sure why you want to see Torres strike out but I like some pretty strange things myself.
I am guessing that is why he referenced the difference between the warm up mound and the actual game mound. I would assume almost all visitors mounds are off a bit.
I had Parra since that 10 K performance, but it's a tremendously deep pitching league.
Anyhow, this quote got me thinking.
Chacin did not allow a run to the Sox but his lack of control has become a prevalent issue. Still, he supplements it with a well above-average strikeout rate, making his control problems passable.
This is more a numbers junkie question. This type of pitcher seems fairly common. Middle of the road guy, lots of K's, control issues. Do you think they are more effective in the K department because a batter is more leery of their control?
That Bob Ford really follows the Phils closely.
I think there is a HUGE ELEPHANT in the room.
There is no manager in the history of earth that could put this team at .500.
Blanton's ERA is sitting at a pretty cool 7.28. Outside of that, Moyer and Kendrick get torched for about 6 ERs every third game.
In summary, he won't end up in the pen upon his immediate return. The Phils always take their time on injuries. Also, it would not shock me if they put Blanton on the shelf for some ailment, basically for him to condition and then work back through some rehab starts to get some confidence.
I know this isn't a huge sample size and he won't ever overthrow Wilson, but.....
Santiago Casilla. Looking mighty good right now. Worth a flier in a Holds league? Ride the hot hand? They don't seem to be over using him yet.
I am pretty sure you are dead on. Great name and after reading that, if I ever have a son, I am pretty sure his name will be Guillotine. Why not?
Thanks, I would like my cooler head to prevail, but the schedule is just brutal. And their inter-league schedule is enough to anger George, thanks for pointing that out. It's just a tough choice and I don't tend to believe that Stubbs is just a fluke considering his age and pedigree. I will wait for tonight before pulling the trigger.
Here is my dilema at this point. 14 team, H2H, non keeper.
R, HR, RBI, SB, K's against, AVG, SLG, OBP
Do I drop Adam Jones for Stubbs?
From what I am looking at, Stubbs certainly whiffs only a bit more than Jones but the bags seem to negate that. Baltimore smells like a pile of trash washed up on the inner harbor on a 95 degree day.
Should I exercise patience or good old American ADHD?
Wow, I enjoyed that. Great questions and great answers. This guy sounds like he is great, and he is. I hope they put something around him or that he can get out, to some place other than....................
Hahaha, that was a beautiful quote.
Former Mets general manager Steve Philips.
I think we have all known for some time now that he has more than a few loose screws. What amazes me is how the guy had a job in the first place. How does someone that out of touch with reality obtain a GM position, broadcasting, and then finally, analyst? It's remarkable.
LOL. Not after Randall? Sausage race incident? No?
What is your dog's name? Did you name him after a famous surgeon, medical procedure, or ball player?
Is SIERRA really biased when it comes to walks?
Yeah I really enjoy this as well. I am usually doing this while at work so I open up the articles of interest and go about my day, reading while I can. I usually don't have the chance to get back to this and say nice job. It's nice.
It's absolutely amazing that the Cubs even enter this conversation.
Ozzie should just quit the game and start a random quote generator website. He would make a killing.
Jacob's Ladder link is broken. Lost watcher here, seems like my entire morning has been one reference or another. Regardless of the outcome, it's better than another cop or hospital show.
Nothing to be embarrassed about. I think I know about three people who genuinely enjoy their jobs.
Once again, I really yearn for a message board on BP. It absolutely amazes me just how close minded people are when talking about the most general of subjects. It's basically the antithesis of this site.
As people in the "free" world, we are all entitled to our own opinions and the Constitution supports that all the time. Why some random reply off an article infuriates some people, I will never know.
Stop being sheep and think for yourselves for once. Understand the judicial system.
After paying my...................?
Good article, always interesting stuff.
The Week In Ozzie Guillen was great once again. Anyone other than A.J. Pierzynski would have done ARod some better justice.
Dude, could not agree more, had them as well. Not only the passing of it, but it's immense pain when you know it's coming.
LOL, that is classic.
I move to rename this The Week in Ozzie Guillen.
"The Red Sox are scouring the market for a catching solution, as Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek have combined to throw out just two of 38 basestealers. "
What's the worst rate of all time? They have to be leading the pack.
Players who had the number prior to league retiring the number can still retain it. Mariano Rivera is one of them, not sure who the others are if any. Also, you will notice a lot of players wear the number 24. Again, I know of two players who stated that they inverted the number but I am sure there are more.
I know there was a ton of backlash on the naming rights of their home that coincided with the bailout packages. In conjunction with the manner in which they financed the new stadium, obviously in the same market, it would not surprise me if they had to adjust some of the financial calculations. Ultimately, I am going to assume that they adjusted them so that profitability would not become a PR nightmare. Just a guess, but without the default loan swapping, I would say these numbers look more in line with what you are thinking they should be.
While I understand what you are saying, the only reason I disagree is that they are the second highest payroll in the league. Please don't misinterpret, because the players are worth what they are generally paid, but just from a media standpoint, the union won't have a leg to stand on if they bring that up. The fact of the matter is that the Red Sox are cost conscious, but they are a huge factor at determining market value in the league. Their influence on market value cannot be denied. Also, you kind of argue your own point when you mention that they sign someone to a massive contract, when he is coming off two consecutive seasons on the DL.
Finally, although this is debatable, some of Boston's tactics may be a bit shady, but ultimately they are dealing with agents. I don't want to lump all agents together, but I think we can all agree that some of them do not have the best character in the world. It's business.
"Mets first baseman Mike Jacobs has put on the catcher's gear for the first time since 2005 in an attempt to help his chances of winning a bench job."
Seriously, do they not have 4 catchers on their roster already?
I remember last year that you wrote a sort of how to article, and isolated BABIP with associated links. I loved that, because it really helps to differentiate regardless of where you are looking at a free agent pick up. It also now significantly helps me determine if I should hang onto a player or drop them. I really can't see that sort of thing becoming a weekly column, but if you could throw something like that out there once a month, that would be great.
LOL at Reyes.
Here is what it boils down to Chris and I agree with you. .
As a community and subset of another community, the premise is that there is infinitely more information at our disposal than what has been traditionally used to measure baseball. So in a sense, the community finds something, defines it, and then asks the baseball world to accept it. These are people who think outside the box to create this material.
For just general opinions on a piece we are talking about, it astounds me that we have such a close minded crowd. I personally find it pretty amazing.
This place needs a forum.
I don't think the term racism should have been used at all without any evidence. I don't care if you are even using it in a speculative context. Even if it was, the clarification behind that speculation was basically pleaded ignorance. Above all, I don't think it's right to mention that for either Dukes or the Nationals organization.
With that being said, it's similar to linking names to steroids this day in age. Heaven forbid we claim Ortiz took steroids because he seems like a good guy; before Congress leaks names. It's not alright to do that but we can speculate racism?
I usually like to read these pieces because I can open up my Websters and try to follow along, while staying current. There is usually a bizarre angle or something I would not think of, which ultimately makes me think as the reader. Provided the criteria on this one....Golden Sombrero. I am sure you will hit for the cycle soon again.
Interesting story. It's sort of like a name dropping, moral of the story, and self promoting experience. I liked it.
I never knew that either. The work instructions for that tool are horrible. I realize that those items can be helpful, but the tool burnt me as much as it saved me, two years in a row. I think it's more me sorting through PECOTA's biases than anything else.
I think they should have a forum. I am not talking about a place that's the wild wild west where every Tom, Dick, and Harry can post, I am talking a place that can link to articles and spur some more discussion. Blogs could link to them as well and we could comment there.
It would make this more of a community that could be segregated into sub sections where everyone is happy. It would turn this place from sweet to killer in no time flat if it's implemented correctly.
Thankfully, I do not have ATT coverage at my house. If I did, I would own the iphone and could be rendered useless at work during day games.
Last year I bought the package online, but for some strange reason I still found myself watching box scores update, pitch by pitch, to watch my guys. It doesn't even make sense to me.
Why the pessimism for Cueto? Not really a Reds fan, just curious.
Even though it's not medically fascinating like the top section, it's still relevant. The reason you do this is because of the complete disconnect with injuries and how they are relayed to the fan.
I enjoy the condensed format. There is no other place on the internet where I can read that Evan Meek could be the man, Slowey needs to be watched because of his wrist, and Jurrjens is back. I don't have time to hit the news wire for all three teams. It's priceless.
I could read this sort of thing for days. I wonder how the young kid with an insane bonus fits in with the team and a guy like that? I realize they aren't usually around too long, but some guys stick around.
Did you read this part?
"If all it is for Nathan is some scar breaking loose, this green should hold. If it's more, well, few closers last even this long."
I hope that clears things up for you like Brian McCann's Laser surgery.
I actually think RF is the strongest of the bunch. Very deep and the second tier over there just makes me feel more comfortable. I think it's more of a health issue for me. It just seems like 3-4 quality CF go down every year or have their season significantly marginalized.
Terribly insightful. Thank you.
You should try it, it's definitely a lot more fun this way IMO.
That would be very interesting. There are so many players, I wouldn't mind that being broken up by division or even league. It's like a kid at a candy store. Obviously by division 101 wouldn't be feasible, but you could rank to irrelevancy. It would be interesting to see where the most young talent is versus what we know to be quality divisions.
Pence and Ethier both intrigue me. I am just curious why Ethier is projected to lose power, where as Pence is going to gain power. Just an open discussion, not an indictment on any player, team, or application.
29 doubles and no triples last year. He is build for the dingo, not stretching things out on the base paths. I agree that it's low, but maybe with his height, weight, and age it projects a regress? Just a thought.
Adam, no I think you are missing the sarcasm. Just to catch you up a bit because this is not listed in the BP Glossary.
Sarcasm is the rhetorical device of using a characterization of something or someone in order to express contempt. It is closely connected with irony, in that the two are often combined in the same statement. Thanks.
The Sandoval and Reynolds paragraph was pure hilarity for me! Thank you, and thankfully for me we have K's against, so I really don't need to get over my bias.
Just an FYI for those of you who have yet to participate in a mock draft or a real one for that matter.
I have not seen Tulo go before pick 15. I may be drafting with imbeciles, but there is no denying that there is a significant drop off. Personally, I am by no means reaching for him. I am looking for Cabrera or Alexei Ramirez (Still a SS on Yahoo) after 10.
Looks like Ervin is going to be a Verducci candidate in 2011.
I would personally say that it would put him on the high side of 3 for me. He still isn't getting a ton of runs, no bags, and his average is not above average. That's not to say I don't like him, it's just really relative to where you can snag him in the draft.
I think that you specific rankings within tiers is what most people would like. I know that I would prefer that.
Also, the thing that I really appreciate is that you have your rankings and you can't run. You stand behind them, conclude with your support, and then you are here for the season. Beyond that, you stand by your picks and painfully rehash your rankings after the season. That's not a bad thing, I personally love it.
A magazine is just a one night stand where as you are a full fledged marriage with associated divorce proceedings.
I like the tiers as well, and I will use this a guideline to more or less break a tie between two players during the draft.
The only other piece that I think people would find of value is the actual value of players relative to draft position or dollar amount.
As an example, Morneau and Berkman are certainly going to go lower than their what their predictive performance will indicate, if you are in agreement with the numbers PECOTA is spitting out.
Will, the testing program can only be considered as *worked* in a clearly defined and narrowed scope. Don't be so narrow minded in thinking that all steroids are injected or some form of HGH.
For someone who really understands and has an interest in the medical world, I cannot possibly comprehend how you can think this is non consequential. The thorn in our collective baseball sides, is one that was first developed about 25 years ago. Just think about the surgical and medical improvements over the course of that time and it is naive to think that the steroid world has regressed. Couple that with the society in which we live, where medicine is highly profitable and we are the most medicated society of all time, it just doesn't add up.
With that being said, the only truly viable fix is blood testing that can be archived for years. Even with that sort of granular testing, I can only assume that there are legal ramifications, especially when you are dealing with wealthy people backed by tremendous amounts of money. When you are talking about technology catching up to more technology, in some cases it could be a decade before the proper checks and balances are in place to properly identify a positive test for a specific substance.
With that being said, I agree with your point about Tiger Woods phenomenon and the media's obsession with feeding the hungry population with information. Brett Favre is another example of this obsession even though his generally do not carry a negative connotation. What is particularly disturbing is that steroids implications really only apply in American professional sports, to the public, in baseball. For some reason no one really cares about Jose Theodore in hockey, the Carolina Panthers offensive line, or an All Pro linebacker who dates reality TV stars.
In summary, baseball will forever be linked with steroids whether we like it or not. I would like to say that I really don't care, but for some reason I still read all the Tiger, Favre, and steroid allegations when they hit the headlines. Steroids being disassociated with baseball will stop right around the time the Met's fans let you bash their darling and not flame you.
I am here because of fantasy as well.
Will, I really think that you nailed it. I try to read every piece on here and stick with them but the number pieces escape me. I just lose interest and maybe because it's not paralleled to something that I maybe would understand.
The occasional pieces that I really enjoy are from Norm, who shows how to use the stat page and isolate some metrics. I wish there was more of that on this site, but I don't want to learn at the expense of losing the real stat heads.
I am in for Princeton.
Well played, anyone else who posts that gets a negative 30.
Regarding the Wang, very insightful and I love that information in a real time context. Does the sports injury book site cases like this or is it most medical mumbo jumbo?
Maybe bright and dark would be better? Or you can refer them back to your post that you thought no one would read to the end. My guess is that some people don't know about the numerical values which brings me to another point. I site index or tutorial would be great for this place. I still don't know why people love the cards so much. Again, this is similar to my Josh Johnson post in that I am not trying to be crafty or funny, I legitimately don't know what's going on.
I don't understand the Josh Johnson comment at all. I never considered him, let alone thought he would be good or bad.
Thank you for clearing up the insane Josh Lindblom and PECOTA love affair.
Philly in general is a pain in the arse and I feel like I can say that because I have lived there. Anyhow, if you try either Plymouth Meeting, King of Prussia, or maybe Cherry Hill, NJ, I am sure the experience would be much better. Free parking, more space, and more accessible to larger numbers of subscribers.
If you would like to stick to the University theme check out the following.
Villanova, Bryn Mawr, Temple (extension campus not main), West Chester, Arcadia. Jersey folks across the stream please chime in..... Princeton would even be better than Philly.
If you can get outside of the city limits, myself and at least four others that I know are there. Two of which live in Philly currently and would not attend UPENN.
Josh Lindblom? Can anyone tell me where this is coming from?
You read his book by any chance? Loved the last quote and his famous Jackie Robinson quote.
I really like the article as well and I am very much looking forward to the future installments. Good stuff.
Thank you for exorcising the Andrew Miller demons.
Personally, I enjoy the way that it's rolled out. This will be my third or fourth year at this and I run the numbers four different ways, export to excel, sort vigorously, and date accordingly. I personally like to see the numbers and how you folks behind the scenes adjust them. However, I do realize others like to see the team pages, cards, and develop projections accordingly.
In the AL East is most surprising. If he is going to be better than the others, they are going to have to get hurt or he will need to put up some all time new era numbers. Can't wait to get started.
Thanks alskor, those quite impressive numbers are well which leads to more questions. First off, are park considerations factors in this? Even if they are, those are still mighty good numbers.
Ira, I remember reading a piece on here last year about Kawakami, plus the guy on the O's, and I think they have it down to a pretty good science in terms of a Japanese pitcher coming to the MLB and how the numbers translate. I really hope they do a similar piece this year.
Josh Lindblom still has me curious.
Been at the PFM since 2PM. A few notes, other than me wishing that today was the day I didnt have a massive headache. Computer screens and spreadsheets don't help.
Matt Schwartz personally turned a screw for Mr. Hamels! Thanks buddy, from one Phil fan to another. (That sarcasm for those of you who treat this site as a holy non joking sanctuary)
Speaking of Holy......Kris Medlen!
Colby Lewis has to be wrong. Is that verifiable? I know there are recounts on PECOTA, can I request one?
Daniel Hudson, quite impressive.
Josh Lindblom, where did that come from? Is that what he is supposed to do in AAA? In A and AA he has a combined 34 innings pitched. For all you prospect heads, I apologize if he is some college pitcher that was out of this world. Just a shocker for me.
I am sorry, I was talking about Perez. I would imagine that he rates higher than Chapman, just based on the two write ups.
THECOTA (Team Health)
POOCOTA (Player Off field Obstinance)
Boy, it sure is shocking that this is a ESPN piece. Interesting none the less.
I think that a forum would make this place exponentially better. Have the articles link to a forum and from there discussion ensues. It would be a great way to develop ideas, have users post their work, or just discuss the day's events in baseball. It would really make this a community. In terms of price, I would pay more, but really it could be implemented for very cheap and advertising would offset any cost within 6 months.
I really don't think the A's need to concern themselves too much with pitching. In terms of their bats, that is where they have significant troubles in my opinion.
Also, as a side note, the last sentence of the A's portion reads, "Sheets, Duke, Anderson, and Braden are tasked with demonstrating health and readiness. "
Who the hell is Duke? Is that Justin Duchscherer?
Is that how you pronounce his name? To spare you the detail, my friends and I have been mispronouncing it for a long time.
He has two plus secondary pitches so I would imagine that he rates higher, for now.
I don't know how merkin was incorporated into the story at a later time. Oddly enough, I know what a merkin is, just didn't get the reference that you are alluding to. I happen to be one of the disappointed bunch, because I didnt see a correlation. Apparently, consider me stupid.
I really don't know what you are asking. What is your problem with the deal? Are you talking about others having an issue with the deal?
I think this is a great deal. In terms of prototypical closers, regardless of his stuff, he gets the job done. I had to do a double take on his career, because I cannot believe that he has been around now for five years. I think injuries would be the only reason anyone would hesitate on this deal, but that's always a concern. He just happened to have been shut down in '07.
Manprin, seriously? The man stated a fact, and you jumped on him in the same way that you are angry that people are jumping on your hero, Mark McGwire. Pot, meet kettle, fade to black.
Anyone who questions catcher rankings at all, please log as many expert opinions you may find for pre rankings and then grade them at the end of the season.
I think this is something that BP puts out there pretty often. Catcher is the most demanding position in the game, and as a result, these lists will fluctuate considerably. Hindsight is always 20/20.
I am not in a two catcher league, so I always take one in the very last round of my drafts. It has become tradition for me.
Buckley seemed very defensive in that series of questions. I wonder if he is an antsy guy or if he has been attacked previously?
I think everyone is way too fixated on the past and it's very near sighted. I have said this before and I will say it again. The technology exists to clone your dog or cat. Just think about that for a second. Olympic testing was rendered a joke well over a decade after it happened. The testing in place now is not half as thorough as something rendered useless almost 15 years ago.
Not everyone appreciates my stance, but I really have to say that I don't care at all. I am no one in the grand scheme of things, but what we are looking at is nothing but an aversion tactic. This isn't Lyle Alzado's cycle any longer folks. If you are concerned about the game and its integrity, the who, what, why, when, where, and how are irreverent. It is still the elephant in the room and everyone is going act shocked in another decade when this has not fixed itself.
I think what he is really implying is that if you respond to this personal ad, you will eventually contract Crabs. It won't matter if he brought them along from the Chesapeake, Detroit, or any other stop along his ML career. Do not pass go, he needs a new occupation.
Top 10? In what league? A 4 team AL only where he isn't owned? Not saying the guy is horrible but cmon.
People don't get jokes on here.
Another great article. Love this stuff.
Phenomenal article! I wish I knew how to search on this site with some relevancy.
Agreed on the bats but the pitching was another story from my point of view. I wish I knew why.
I never miss it. If I am traveling for business, on vacation, and just busy, it's always a column I circle back to read. Have a good one.
Excellent use of the work "buttock".
I wasn't talking about other fans. I made no reference to other fans at all. You surely prove my point but you are one of us buddy. Put on your helmet and retain your lifelong seat on the wagon. I embrace you with open arms.
Joe, dead on and it took me a while to come to this conclusion myself. There are so many facets to this deal, you can't just blindly sit down and have one conclusion and be done. The facts are as you presented them.
Halladay and Lee deals were both brilliant moves. You can't take away either move and especially at that cost certainty. We could sit here and come up with deals all day that were atrocious.
Lee was dealt way too quickly. I agree with you and I think the ownership forced the hand. There is absolutely no other logical reason not to pit the Angels and the Mariners against each other and watch the pot increase steadily over the course of the next few months.
A few other items that I find to be interesting.
I like to think that the ownership forced the hand of Rueben but there is a part of me that isn't so sure. He was extremely quick to pull the trigger on Ibanez, (which is still a bad contract) Polanco (no valuation on the market at this point), and signed Moyer to two years. He is a bit trigger happy to say the least.
This entire deal just smells of Pat Gillick. Anyone could say so what, but I just find it to be interesting. I am just surprised the Orioles weren't in on the action.
Last but not least. I see mentioning of Phils fans in the thread. As a Phils fan, I can say with conviction that we are, as a whole, retarded. Not all of us, but we certainly earn our perception in the sports world. I can't listen to the radio right now with all the slop people are throwing around. It's really a joke.
I took it as a nice way of saying the manager was conservative. Just how I took it, don't know if it's right or wrong.
I have not read about either but thanks for guessing. Like I said, I have only read about 20+ books on the low end. I really don't have a defined curriculum, it just needs to be baseball related. It's really all over the place, obscure stuff.
Thanks for posting this. If you could replicate this about ten times a week, I would say you could raise you rates ten fold.
And how long do you think Mitch Williams hangs on to his job? Wanna take a guess at what his pay stub says? Listen, I understand integrity, but I also understand that everyone has to make a living. Baseball has far worse issues than Williams ability to ask Selig a tough question.
In terms of this George Will fellow, I can proudly say that I never heard of him. I feel like I am pretty well read in the baseball arena and I can't say that I heard his name before today. I check into this site every day for the last few years, read 20+ books, and commit way too much time on other baseball related sources and sites. At this point I am going to figure out who he is. What I would really appreciate is that they made this public. We are all going to watch the game moving forward regardless of the outcome.
I don't think it's interesting because half the population is below average. This type of information just reaffirms that on a different level. I need to look no further than my job for validity.
I don't find that to be interesting at all. I really can't believe what people are paid to do. From a pitching stand point, other than maybe Billy Butler, I am sure the Royals lineup all looks the same?
Where is Wallace coming from?
This may be a question that was already answered some place else. Do we know how old this guy really is? If so, how?
I would think that Jeff Kent might be a good way to look at it, best case scenario. He was solid through his 37 year old season. I realize he isn't a HOF.
This is not a terribly complicated concept. Just dumb it down a bit to understand this if you are angry about player X.
Imagine that no one was on a team right now. Now, imagine you had to draft players for your team. What would your draft look like? This is what Kevin's looks like. Make your own draft.
Loved the article, but would have also loved to see the batters and pitchers split up. I understand why that didn't happen, I just think that would be interesting.
I just have to say thank you. In Philadelphia, most people I talked to absolutely hated Wade's middle reliever fetish. We knew what was coming every off season and at every trade deadline. He strikes again! My friends and I never read anywhere about Wade's fetish (love the adjective), until now. Also, I was not a member here while you were all joking about him as the Phils GM. Thank you.
So because you had no clue that Gammons read Hardball, Roto, or Musings, you draw the conclusion that we never know the assertions that the brains have already researched and excluded? That makes absolutely no sense at all. I don't even know what area code you are in. What does that mean? Everyone loves Gammons, now you are learning why.
On another note, Gammon's also writes/wrote for Baseball America. I usually pick those up in the off-season, but I am going to assume he still has a column in there. Regardless, it's always a great piece that I would consider to be timeless. Usually the article he writes is being read one to two weeks after the news occurs. He still has a way of telling you something you didnt know, or maybe imposing another point of view on the story or situation. Always enjoyed that column and I am headed to the bookstore tomorrow no less.
Not a real surprise in that he left. ESPN is pure garbage on numerous levels. ESPN no longer deserved him.
LOL. Anything good? Did they know he needed surgery? Not the the Phils pen was stellar, but he did cost them a WS game. Sour grapes I know, but still interesting.
Did you ask Scott what the hell happened with Lidge?
He managed to not hurt himself bouncing off of CF walls?
Great article! That's definitely some interesting stuff.
Johnson killed me this year. Unfortunately, two things happened to me. First off, I was higher on him than the original column. It wasn't so much that I thought he would produce like a top tier 2B as it was the value on the return for where he was going in drafts. He was one of the biggest "bargains" in snake full player drafts without money.
Enter draft night. Yahoo once again decided to make their draft window look "Flashier" and it does look that way, but didnt work. I made my first round pick, and I am going through and pulling all of the players I am targeting out of the queue per position. Tex was my first pick at 11, so naturally, I started at 2B for my "value" picks. Johnson was the first player I slid into my queue and I am trying to sort through SS and 3B when my pick arrives. I am on the clock and my java interface fails, locks up for about 30 seconds and I finally I am back with a real time clock for the draft. The only issue is that it's no longer my pick and the interface selected Kelly Johnson for me as my second pick in the draft. It took me about four rounds to calm down after that which also resulted in me taking Atkins with my six pick to make up in offensive production.
I have, and will, hate Kelly Johnson for the rest of my life. As I was waiting for him to "wake up", all the other options were getting snagged off the WW. Went to the finals in my league and just laid an offensive egg.
Where is Polanco if he is a 3B on this list?
Because there is always a "market", for anything. You can assume that if they don't want a 3B, OF, or RP, their budget will be pretty close to zero. I am not disputing what a team needs or does not need, but the owner has the pocket book and the ability to analyze, rationally or irrationally, where his money goes into the market.
And cmon, seriously, when you have Dusty Baker as a manager, that's easily 8 to 9 wins right there.
Well here is the interesting part Rich. Charlie and Amaro have both been asked about 10 different ways and 100 different times why this happened. They were both on record saying that if they knew that he had that injury, they would have been more than happy to shut him down for the year. I have a terribly hard time not believing either of them knew anything because I think we all read that his season was one of the worst EVER. I know closing isn't easy, but when you are replacing the worst ever (on a season), there is no place to move but up. They also both stated that they would have been happy to know this before the deadline as well. Of course the next logical question is.....Why wait for him to divulge an injury when he is clearly horrible, injury or not, before making a move? So there is the counter argument. Either way, they are either pleading ignorance in attempts to absolve themselves from looking bad or they are rubbing salt into a wound. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe this is something a player can't feel or within the lines of another typical ailment? I don't know, but that's why I always read this column.
In terms of the award, I don't see how it could change. We can't erase Lidge's innings as much as some of us would like to.
Everyone can say what they want to say about those two players. The only difference between the two of them is that one got caught lying. That's pretty much it in a nut shell. I know I will get a -15 rating or whatever, don't really care. There was a reason Griffey broke down, and it certainly wasn't bad luck.
Interesting. If you can get Sheridan to do a post award interview, I would be interested in what went on with Lidge. Besides sucking, he all of the sudden needed elbow surgery? We never did hear details on that injury so I don't know if it's something that was more or less exploratory or "routine". Regardless, that atrocity sort of all added up with that news.
Thanks for the information. Going to check it out now.
Thanks for that Mr. Douglass. Again, I have no idea where to find these numbers, but I would still be curious how that plays out for other top starters.
Any advice on how to look this stuff up? Admittedly, I don't have a clue.
In thinking about it more and more, and I am admittedly lost in some of the number minutia, wouldn't you think that there is something not jiving here? Sure the numbers correlate and I am not debating your findings at all. But other than saying, good luck/bad luck, can we examine other great pitchers on a year to year basis? What I mean is that we know that CC has been pretty consistent from a year to year, but how much does he deviate in pitch selection and velocity? Is he infusing something else on a yearly basis that keeps him fresh so to speak? I don't want to ask if Cole is too predictable, because that's a bad question. I don't disagree with the luck factor at all, I am just wondering if he was too consistent. Do other pitchers who continually put together consecutive dominant seasons all achieve the same quantifiable differences on a year to year basis? I would assume once he settled in after the elbow woes, that his release point was pretty consistent. The numbers you put out there would seem to indicate to me that isn't an issue.
Thought he would be traded for a pitcher? LOL.
Also, I love that Hermida was "one of the older" guys in Florida, at 26. How the hell do they do it?
FRANK TANANA, is his number one comp.
Just send that as your response to the lazy writers, aka, the Philadelphia media.
Interesting Factoid: Did you know, more than half of the Inquirer reporters move onto writing for daytime soap operas?
The last time Pettitte was pitching on three days rest he was also hanging out with his friend Roger down in Texas. We all know how that one ends..... I wonder if that was his "first and only time"? And please don't get me wrong, I love the player Andy Pettitte, I hate the guy Andy Pettitte. If I could have watched him pitch without seeing one of his interviews, he would be one of my favorite players of all time. Just throwing it out there. Hypocrite to the core.
Agreed. Old baseball guys are hilarious and fascinating at the same time.
"If they were in a gutter, I'd kick them."
That is an absolute disservice to Mr. Utley. I know you said "reminds me" but two entirely different players for a number of reasons. In fact, there could be an article written discussing at length, just how different these two players are.
What I find to be amazing about Chutley.
First off, look at his numbers in the second half of last year, with that hip injury. Plus, he played in an additional 12 games during the playoffs.
Second, and this kind of feeds off of the first. I have seen Chase get drilled by a number of pitches in numerous places. I don't think that I have ever once seen the man do more than squint his eyes while running to first. The guy is a machine and has the pain tolerance of the Terminator.
I never considered him to be underrated, but we have loved him for the last five years here locally. I guess nationally could be a different story.
Sheehan, without is a great way to go, but kill the American. Go with the Wiz or Provolone.
Second guessing = what makes baseball fun.
Anyhow, was that not the worst implementation of a strike zone that you have ever seen in your life? Anyone? I read seven Arod articles and six Damon articles, none of which mentioned the zone. I think that it was consistently horrid for both teams, but I was just amazed at how bad the zone was.
Thank you for touching on the Rivera piece. I had that argument twice in the last two weeks.
I will tell you what Stejskal's issue is. Money talks. When you have enough money to delay anything, it screws them all up. How long has Bonds case been going now? Guess how much tax payer money that is costing.
I can respect that McGwire isn't a media whore like Canseco and I am no fan of his in any capacity.
I enjoyed the Howard love as a Phils fan and lover of the color red. Last year, he certainly didn't deserve it. It's one of the few times I will ever say the words I hate the most in life..... small sample size. While it is true, I just hate that term. It's almost like arguing with a religious person. Whatever we can't quantify, we just chalk up as divine intervention and that's the gospel. End of debate.
I am not pointing fingers either, just stating that I hate the close minded approach.
Just throwing this out there and I have no clue what the answer is.
What about weather? I know you mentioned warm vs. cold. Then there is humidity as well. Maybe barometric pressure? Surely the rain has some impact.
I was joking because I had no clue what he was talking about. It's a prediction.
Because he hates LA, but only the Anaheim portion, which isn't really LA per se. It get's complicated, trust me, I went through it earlier in the week with the Dodgers and Phils. I think it basically boils down to the authors of BP hating the color Red when you really break it down. I know, I know, small sample size, but trust me on this one. Think about it, the Cards, Twins, and RED (could it be any clearer) Sox already lost and they all have some fashion of red in their uniforms. Then you have the purple Rockies, which come on, Red beats purple any day of the week. Just let the record state that the authors are not color blind like myself.
They hate red, and if you really want to break it down, I think it stems from grammar school. How is punctuation corrected? Red pen! They hate red.
Hahaha. I love Freddy Guzman's Eqa and Vorp! Classic.
Wow, thanks. Look at Atlanta up there! Guess it's no real surprise that we are looking at the four playoff teams with the other being eliminated the last week of the season. Thanks again.
By chance, would you happen to have any run differential splits? The Dodgers certainly were not the same team we saw in the first half of the year. I am by no means saying they are a bad team, just that like all other numbers we look at, things normalize if you will. And I will be the first to admit that I like the numbers, but certainly do not discredit them or claim them to be gospel. Also, I do understand the concept of run differential, just wondering if pre/post all star are drastically different.
Santa Claus was drunk. McNabb was alcohol and wrong but what are you going to do?
Rolen was complaining in the media as was Schilling. And so was Schmidt for that matter. Rolen still gets booed here. Schilling still has really strong ties to the area. Schmidt lives in Florida but loves the fans and the feeling is mutual. I don't think I heard a negative thing about him in the last 10-15 years other than the fact that I think he is baseball's version of Namath. The man likes to throw them down.
Most definitely, great news.
If you equate booing to douchery, then yes, we are douches. Just out of curiosity, how does Philadelphia booing Schilling make you feel or how does it effect you?
Actually, I like Joe, and that comment made me like him even more. I appreciate that he took the time to write that out and put some effort into it. BP is the place where baseball humor goes to die. Some people take this way too seriously and I am not talking about the staff. It's their job.
I just wonder why Joe dislikes the Phils, that's all. I am a fan of his and that won't change. I guess the moral of the story for me is this. Who cares? To me, the answer to that question would just make my reading more enjoyable because there are emotions invested in everything that you do in life. It's one more angle to look at something and that's why I am here in the first place.
Cheers, and we have at least 12 games left this year fellas!
I would have to agree with that. The problem is, no one talks about it when you are that fan because you get lumped into a category. It's the same reason the media talks about Philly fans in the same manner that they pile on A Rod in the playoffs. It's just too easy.
Generally, you will notice that the level of douche is directly proportional to the winning percentage of said douches team. It's not a difficult equation because when someone isn't winning, they aren't talking.
Kind of relates to my point above and the use of the word "legend". Even without the aide of knowing that he has been in that same position before, and failed, or knowing that he has been on the featured stage many nights, I still go with Mo. His splits are nice regardless of all the intangibles and prior experience factor. You know he can make his pitch.
You can't take Mo out and for a number of reasons. First and foremost, self preservation. You take out a "still great" legend and lose the game, he would never live that down and lose his job. I would imagine a fair share of fans in the greater NY area would literally like his head on a platter as well. If your ship sinks and Rivera is the Captain, the people are more understanding. Gaudin, Marte, and Coke would all need new cities next year.
Well, there are many different ways to look through the glass. One of them is this. You know you are good when someone hates you.
And there is a gross, deep seeded hatred for the Phils from one Mr. Sheehan. Why that is, I don't know, but I am curious. Here are some of my theories but I must state that this is only conjecture and I am still sifting through the pile for some truth. Maybe some fellow readers can help me out?
1. Mets fan?
2. He has a great friend who is a complete ahole Philly fan?
3. He wore another team's jersey to Vets stadium one time?
Those would be my three guesses as to why he dislikes the Phils and all of them are justifiable reasons. That is where I would like to start. Also, I just want everyone to know that I fully support his dislike for the Phillies, because if we all liked the same team, this would ESPN.go.com and not Baseball Prospectus. But seriously, I am more curious than anything else and not trying to be a jerk. I always enjoy reading his pieces, Phil bashing or no Phil bashing.
How about some Behind the Story, Baseball Prospectus biographies? You know, some of the authors favorite teams, general hatred, greatest moments stuff? You are all great writers and I am sure it would be entertaining.
Finally, I am very happy to see that all the Round Table members chose the Dodgers for two reasons. It helps to preserve my expectation levels much like insulin keeps diabetes in check. Being an all Philadelphia fan for 30 years kills the sports psyche and it's a painful burden. With that burden, in lies a false confidence called superstition. You picked the Dodgers last year and I like the consistency. Surely if they make it past this round they won't be favored against either AL team... again.
Great write up.
On the initial series analysis earlier in the week, in the comments I mentioned that this game could literally have a book written on it. The number of events to analyze and look at are staggering. Instant classic for sure and it's really too bad that most of the country did not see that game.
I personally think that Tracy's biggest mistake was batting Torrealba 5th. It still makes zero sense to me and I don't care how great a series he had at the plate.
I think last night was the last time the Phils get the fortunes of Torrealba hitting 5th in the lineup. IMO, that was a complete boneheaded move.
Also, Manuel bringing Madson in during the 7th was brilliant. It's easier to identify flaws in thinking and methodology, but this one was dead on. Now, if Eyre doesn't break his ankle on the previous play, I don't think we see Madson, but he got the punch out and the rest was history. Also, it was pretty funny when Madson got called into the game last night because he was not even warming up. Myers told him that he got the call and he didn't believe him at first. I am guessing the shock factor of him heading into the game was probably the best thing for him in terms of combating the Siberian temperatures.
My goodness does CarGo looked locked in! I know that it's not anything earth shattering if you are watching the games, but even as a Phil's fan I am enjoying watching this guy play. I think I am really enjoying it because he can't run full speed but I don't want to take anything away from the guy. I think you just have to appreciate when true hype is realized.
I think a book could be written on last night's game. There were so many sub plots, tactical moves, horrible broadcasting, blown umpire calls, bad managerial moves, key hits, great relief appearances, and nearly falling asleep every commercial. If there were 55000 there last night, at least 15000-20000 were standing near space heaters not near their seats.
Finally, kudos to Selig for screwing and skewing the weather once again. Miraculously, the thermometer at or near the stadium was a balmy 5-6 degrees warmer than the rest of the Denver area. How that happened, my guess is that only Buddy and TBS will know. And of course they never went back to the biggest outside influence of the game during the broadcast. Oh yeah, and NLCS starts Thursday so regardless of the team who faces the Dodgers, they could possibly get really jammed on rest. But nice job on canceling the game Bud, the conditions improved tenfold last night.
No wonder you knew about the Howard Hail Mary. Yup, that stutter step cost him that bag because it was the difference. If he would not have stolen the bag, it would have been chalked up as "one of those calls" that we saw in the first game.
Also, I am at work right now and I have this MLB package so I can see the game, but only from certain angles. In the first, I am going to assume that Howard again botched the throw to second. I know it didnt go into LF again, but I could not see it.
After his second AB, is there a wonder why?
Great analysis and you know the Phils. I missed out on all of the content yesterday but I almost lost my breath when I read this.
"He still struggles for whatever reason with making the throw to second base, but Howard has been a veritable vacuum at first base this season."
I am assuming you watched the game yesterday and there it went into left field.
I really cannot comprehend why he has such an issue with this. How long has he been throwing a baseball? He makes great catches at first and has improved that aspect of his game considerably. I would even argue that he seems to have improved his plate discipline, and while it may not show up in his numbers, he doesn't look lost out there anymore in a tight situation. I just think he presses.
So anyhow, it's not like the guy isn't athletic. Hell, I would rather he gun the ball into the runner's back. Obviously not on purpose, but if he has some control issues, just aim for the guy. I just do not get it.
All the comments are especially funny after last night's game where he gave up two runs off a misplayed ball.
I will third that. I love the scouts view as well.
Any information on Prado? I just find his situation interesting.
We can't even escape Favre on here. LOL.
So, has there ever been a team with this many LHP starts combined with LH plate appearances in their lineup? Trend setters, those stinking Phillies.
Mr. Carroll: How about Carlos Zambrano is becoming Bartolo Colon's equal? Chicago's Latin El Twinkees.
I think it builds character and teaches you to be a better fielder.
It means he is still on the 25 man roster and it's punishment for the team not enforcing equipment rules. I like it, but the only issue is that someone still needs to check.
I did see the show Ben referenced above, but assuming he is using an older cup, if you took a shot to the boys when I played, it still rocked the general region and I think all men can relate to that. So, bottom line is that someone would still "need to check."
I guess if Clemens could find someone to rub some Icy Hot on his balls, there are people out there who are willing to check.
Because baseball is the only sport that anyone cares about this sort of thing. The only people that give us baseball fans a run for our money are the crazy French doping czars. Seriously, we are on par with the French.
Hockey, baseball, football, no one cares. A few games here and there and they are back. Shawn Merriman put together one of the best defensive seasons ever for a LB all while on steroids. No on cared. The Carolina Panther's entire SB O-Line was was testosterone fueled and legally proven. No one cared. NHL had a few players piss fire at the Olympics, no one cared. NBA, do I need to elaborate?
Kevin, I really don't think how the sausage as made situation. I think what's more interesting is the day to day minutia of a player. What I think makes Halberstam excellent is his ability to make players seem "normal". We focus on nothing but production and the game, but frankly we know very little about the players. We have spent the last 5-7 years vilifying the horrible personalities in the majors and that's all we know. There are not many shows or pieces outlining players day to day or any sort of profile. Everything is fluffed up or "this is where I come from" crap. We know where everyone is from, but we don't know where they are outside of production.
Thinking about making a trek out there with my buddy, a Bucco fan. We are both in Philadelphia now, so obviously we need to make arrangements. Is there a maximum number of people you will take? Should we buy the tickets immediately is more or less what I am asking?
Agreed with all. Yeah, the psychological influences from outside the game are all very interesting.
Continually injuring it and not waiting the proper amount of time to go balls to the wall on it.
So then you absolve the abusers for what they have done. MLB doesn't test, so therefore we don't care. HGH isn't something we don't know about. I get your point but it's really invalid in this context.
I hear you but we all know it took government intervention just to get the testing in place. We also know that they cannot test for many components of steroids or related products because they are not required to supply blood samples. Years ago we were told the Olympics were the standard of all testing, only to realize years after that their system was exploited as well. It's still being exploited and the technology is driven by dollars. Testing is not.
With that being said, they can clone your family pet.
I first thought this may be a Carmona joke.
Why does ANYONE care about steroids? Seriously, who cares? I know I don't, I just flip off ESPN and then I don't hear about it 35 times a day. They are the only outlet that creates the tension and they feed into these reports in time lines. No one else runs with these stories like they are a revelation.
There was an article on Ortiz slumping a little while back and someone tried to tie him to his injury, protection, eyes, whatever.......... Come back to reality. I remember commenting on the story that Manny's dealer left with him to LA and it was quickly deemed an inappropriate comment. It was reality and I am not even close to Nostradamus. It's just common sense, but the more we keep feeding into this "non mystery" the more it feeds into the hype machine.
People, you love the greatest sport on earth. There is nothing we can do about the roids and there is nothing we will ever be able to do about the roids. It's part of the game. It's really not even worth the time that you think about it because no matter what, there isn't a safety net that can contain it.
Or they drop him. Not sure what I missed, but if you pro rate Adam Eaton's contract out, I am sure they will pay him more money than Pedro for the rest of the year. When you sign a guy for a million, I think it's pretty assumed that it's a gamble. It's only slightly more interesting because this was one of the best pitchers in baseball for an amount of time.
Well, IMO, you cannot possess top percentile HR and SB production in one body. I don't know why people don't realize that. We have all been waiting for years for Crawford, Reyes, now Upton to have this insane speed power combination. NOT GONNA HAPPEN! Your body is built one way or another and the players who really achieve the milestones markers need a variety of factors to go in their favor in order to accomplish something like this. Example, playing for the Washington Nationals doesn't hurt.
Haha, thanks guys. Of course I don't have 360. Oh well, I really need to invest in DVR.
Now I understand the American OF is deep, but no room for Taylor? Also, you mentioned you were part of the process to select the Futures Teams! Kid in a candy store! Or maybe not dependent on the other agendas in the room. Did you happen to write about this? Definitely an interesting article if you are up for it.
Anyone know if they will ever replay this game?
I was not implying that you did, I always like the content here because it's a fresh perspective. I don't go anywhere near ESPN's website so I didnt read anything there either. The only time I watch it is to fall asleep and I have seen the clip about 25 times in the past two days. If you have some sort of insomnia or apnea like myself, it's great because after you see a story on one incident three times in 15 minutes, it aides in the sleep process.
My claim may be Cohenesque, but I feel that if ESPN didnt blow everything out of proportion, this would have zero press. It is quite absurd though and I agree with you. If he wants his job, he just calls the game.
IMO, no positional prospect is going to "get it done" when talking about this deal. Wallace is a nice player, but when you are scoring runs at a nice clip without Wells or Rios producing at their capable levels, losing 200+ innings, in an already decimated rotation, would dictate the what they are looking for in return. Sure a positional player can be nice, but with the Jays may need three pitchers to just replace his innings. I'm not sure they have that in their system with all the youngsters they called up.
Why are we talking about Manny again? Is this ESPN? Seriously, the only thing that makes this an issue is the ridiculous machine that is ESPN. I know the site works with Insider, and I dont blame you, but this is not a story at all. This is an ESPN fabrication, because people like Manny.
On another note, this is also what makes MLB great. There is so much gray area in baseball, it leads to endless discussion over nothing. I love it.
Yeah I think this deal would be similar to what the Phils did a few years ago with Thome, although on a much grander scale. The Jays pay a portion of Wells' contract each year, say $5 mil a year, and then in turn ask for more on the prospect end. I don't think that anyone disagrees that Halladay is about as valuable as they come, regardless of how long his contract is.
And all the people who claim that this article is baseless because of Wells ability to improve, that was addressed. You have to remember that they are in the AL East and have a significantly smaller margin for error than any other division in baseball. If you could build a team with a Wells' type of contract, surely he isn't a top 5 pick if you are just pulling positional players from the AL East.
They also have to deal with their economy vs. the dollar. As if they need another reason to make life in the AL East more difficult.
Yeah he has to be talking about Pierre. They are of the same build and with the Ichiro reference, that makes three little guys, in terms of the power spectrum. I really don't know how 5 year contract and bench player correlates? He is most definitely a bench player with Manny back and his contract is looking pretty sweet in this economic climate.
On the Jason, yeah has to be Giambi. He had that tumor issue which kept him out for quite a stretch of time if I remember correctly.
Just remember that Utley may be hurt. The issue is that you will not know unless he gets shelved by the team. Even if they do put him on the DL, my guess is that they will not say that he is taking a break because of the hip. Don't forget he played through this last year for the better part of 3 months. He also has taken more fastballs to the leg, foot, torso, and arms, than I can count; without making so much as a face. They guy is tough. We just won't know unless his playing time is over.
I don't have the time to look it up, but I was just trying to memory jog the brain for BS at home. I can think of at least 4 in the last two weeks. Those are the real killers. Also, to add to Mountainhawk's point, there pitching has been significantly better. Most of the games that they are losing are absolute heart breakers. Of course, I think that is due to the fact that the opening portion of the season absolutely killed the pen.
Above all, sure they could use a nice ground ball pitcher. Who can't? In addition to that, they also need at least one more quality arm in the pen and I would argue that to be a more pressing issue than a SP at this point in time.
You had me at "clutch".
I am hitch hiking!
I loved the piece and I am hitch hiking.
Lose the "more on that later".
Well, one of the reasons I love baseball so much is because we as fans are the biggest whiner babies in all professional sports. No hardcore football, hockey, or basketball fan cries as much as even the moderate baseball fan. In baseball, everyone has their opinion and everyone chimes in to pile on. I don't get it, but I love it.
My three most memorable....
Millwood no hitter.
Yankee stadium, I saw the guy that jumped onto the foul ball net, when it happened.
Old Vet's stadium, I saw a Met fan pushed down the 700 level steps. Now, you may think, no big deal. But, those steps were pretty steep, pretty long, and he did not take anyone else out along the way.
Guilty pleasure and it's only because of my history of Braves hatred. Chipper Jones. When you can hate someone for as long as I have hated Chipper, for me to like him says something. One of his ABs when healthy, is maybe one of the single most enjoyable events of the year for me. Of course, liking him is sacrilege here in Philly.
Juan Pierre would have to be my next guilty pleasure that kind of fits the scheme of what you are looking for. I always enjoy watching him play.
Nice article, have my vote.
Not sure how we got from HS vs. college picks to deadline deals.
Good none the less.
Didn't really interest me at all. Sorry, no soup for you.
You are lucky that you are getting a vote from me. Let the story tell itself, no need for four dialects in the piece.
Your main theme
Too much, but very interesting topic. I learned something.
I don't get the argument. This is not, ESPN's Michele Wie, 1947, or soup worthy. No soup for you.
Yeah forced verbiage in here. That's the issue IMO. I am not looking for Thoreau, just some insight.
Is the park in Louisville a cavern?
No and I agree with you. If baseball dictated what we were allowed to talk about, this site would not exist. IMO, it's a slap in the face. If someone is continually offensive or malicious, they should relinquish their ability to post.
With that being said, I know there are issues with the technology. I really think a forum would be great for the site.
Yeah he will not be forgotten in Philly because of that monstrous pinch hit blast in their comeback against the Dodgers. It's really not uncommon to hear people mention instances from the '80 Championship team, which is what assures me that no one will forget the guy here.
I enjoy stories like this regardless of the team. Of course he fact that it involves a Phillie helps, but in general these are usually eye openers. It's kind of like looking through the stats before the start of the upcoming season and wondering how in the world Peralta had that many RBIs.
Well, you can't really analyze until a guy is slated to go some place. Like Peavy, there was a piece on how his numbers would be inclined in his new windy home. I enjoyed the piece and I think this is something the site does not cover.
Playing Devil's Advocate, the one piece that you missed Jeff..... If you would have just added some metrics for the players for this year and their career... you could have put some stats in this.
Example, Branyan's 2009 VORP along with his career VORP. That would at least tell some more of your story for someone who may have been looking at this from a fantasy perspective.
You have my vote. One of my two btw.
Hey Richard Bergstrom. Do you have a job?
I found zero of the articles interesting last week. Thank goodness for new topics. I am not voting for anyone, because nothing stood out, other than my realization that I am tired. I wish I could be more constructive and I am not saying I could do a better job. Sorry.
I really cannot even begin to understand how some people do not have any idea as to the effects of steroids on the human body. I really do not get it at all. Especially people who make a living off analyzing numbers. By no means am I saying all people, but some just choose to ignore it all together.
I just wish someone would write a piece on someone who takes a mid level steroid and how that effects their body physically. The amount of strength that can derive from one cycle of steroids is simply amazing. And, I might add, the average meat head at your local gym does not have access to the same quality of steroid millionaire baseball players do. Regardless, we are not talking about a one or two percent increase off a normal max potential here. Results are significant. So to say that an already large framed man would not benefit from steroids is absolutely ludicrous. This is not even touching on the injury recovery benefits of the cycles.
"I do not see any argument that steroids are the reason for his performance, this year or previously;"
You are right Joe, you don't because the raw data doesn't exist in numerical fashion. You have to create it or find it. Get out of the box that you are thinking in as it relates to this issue. I have a couple male friends who were prescribed female fertility drugs and we all think it's normal. *sarcasm*
In summary, I could care less if the entire league was on steroids. It really doesn't bother me. Maybe it is because I know the effects of steroids, maybe it's because I know that there is no way they can EVER be stopped. I have no problem with him playing in the all star game and he would get my vote as well. My biggest issue is that just throw his steroid usage out the window as if there is not compelling evidence that he takes them.
That's right! Because aces are so easy to come by and the market is never ever inflated.
Side note: When you are referring to the fact that there is a program that analyzes a player's efficiency and worth: Would that not indicate that there are tremendous inconsistencies in the market right now? Therefore, when you say that their tool claims he is making what he is worth, would that not be "perfect value" assuming you can't get him for cheaper? I think you disproved your own point.
Great article, makes you think. Sort of reminds me of the early 60's and the AL being dominant thus ignoring minority players. It wasn't league wide as far as the National League was concerned.
Also, yet another reason the MLB draft does not have the recognition that it should. There is absolutely no way the casual viewer could watch it with any sort of clue as to what was happening.
Far and away my favorite piece out of the bunch. I wish there would be four more pieces written off of this one piece. I would like to see this tore down and rebuilt because certain sections of this are fascinating to me, and I just enjoy thinking about it.
I got lost and glazed over. Started great and maybe I am a moron? Just being honest.
Yeah, I skipped through this article very quickly, simply because it was something I read about 20 times before the start of the season. I am a Phils fan, so I naturally gravitate to all news good or bad. I am interested in reading his piece next round.
The funniest part of the entire article..... RBIbanez was just named player of the week. Made me chuckle because Player C's, I mean Dunn's, spectacular defensive capabilities attributed to at least two additional RBI's over the weekend.
I enjoyed this article!
Agreed on that front. Glad you commented like you did. Not that I don't, or could not, find this interesting, but for me, I require more of a breakdown.
First, in order to do so, that would require three more articles of this size to get me where I need to be.
Second, it appears as if Brian knows what he is talking about, but that doesn't work if I, being the moronic reader, do not "get" the numbers.
Third, I would like be able to understand what he is trying to convey. I think your challenge is going to be breaking down your knowledge through words. You are a professor teaching in middle school at this point. For me at least, I still laugh at farts.
Great read, kept me interested.
I don't know why some people in here imply that sabermetrical information is rocket science. All the information at hand is at the writer's disposal and you have access to it as well as she does.
If you and I both understand what OPS is and have to explain it someone else, invariably, one of us will do a better job than the other.
This is not the creation of a new metric to track careers of minor league left fielders, who converted to third base, and subsequently can now hit sliders 50 points higher than previously.
Reynolds holds the record with 204. You do the math.
I wonder why he isn't recovering as quickly? Manny took his connections with him to LAX.
Wow, can't believe I didn't have to click to read the inappropriate! Good to see some humor!
Steven, I am convinced I am going to die every time I fly so I enjoyed that aspect of the article because I can relate. My friends and family all this it's hilarious as well, which I don't get, but I fly regardless without medication. Well, there is always the occasional stay up all night or have a drink or two, but that's not always feasible. I digress, but I really enjoyed the article.
So I was interested in the article for a few reasons, the first having to do with flying and the second with baseball history. I know very little about the history of baseball other than the books I have read and other programs I have watched. The same people who laugh about my flying, also think it's funny that I love baseball. So I received the token Christmas present; Sporting News page a day calendar (shaped like a baseball for irony) for my desk at work. I usually can nail all the rule questions and post 2000 questions, but when they ask a trivia question as it relates to old stats, usually I am in the dark and just guessing. Not today Steve, because I finished your article and the baseball said....................
Since 1900, who had the highest batting average among all catchers?
Oh the irony, it almost hurts. I learned something today and hopefully I won't get fired for my internet usage leaving this message.
Good luck with the anxiety in the future sir!
Norm, love the information but just one question. Did ESPN muscle you into writing this?
And of course it's back, he isn't hurt yet.
He looked good today. Not to worry too early, but what is up with Upton losing time to Brynes? Money?
But Will, they do have a staff to cover that divisional beats. The issue is that all of the writers work on the AL East. Two for the Yankees, two for the Sawx, one for the Rays, then the same guy covers the O's, Jays, and the rest of league if the Yanks or Sawx are playing one of the two. It's genius really.
I really hope the A's move to Portland. How about Nike's Bandbox for the park name?
I agree with you and I have been in a few. You just don't really feel like you are at the game. To me, if I am "not at the game" I dont want to sit in traffic before or after the game.
Mitch Williams wore that number as well so there is another to throw into the mix. He had his 15 minutes.
Hold on a second. Did ESPN purchase BP last night? Three articles with AROD as the focus? Can't wait to log in tomorrow. RED SOX!
Get a hold of yourself.
I wonder if there is a subliminal message in all of those names. Wait, wrong website. This isnt Dan Brown.
Yeah I was trying to figure the theme out but you posting this makes sense. I guess the point is, none of them look right.
The Portland Athletics. Philadelphia, Oakland, Portland. I guess it looks alright.
Chomsky, I was asking tdierkes because he claimed to figure it out. You and I replied at the same time. I am with you but Holliday still ranks top 5 in any combination of the peripherals when I use this tool.
Please share, I think he will be excellent this year but I also feel like his projections are too high.
This just in, Obama added stadium funding to the economic stimulus plan! He also gave the Royals 500 million to commit to FA\'s through 2012.
Steven, thank you for addressing the question and interesting read as always.
Bug, I hear you and another point I made in my request was that the media simply says that the lefty based lineup will hurt the Phils. I don\'t mind if anyone says that, but no one supports it. They just make the statement and move on.
Don\'t forget the invincible Preston Wilson!
Just a heads up, on the spreadsheet you have Lannan and Balester flipped.
I really did enjoy the article, not sarcasm. Hoping Cabrera gets another word or mention, not sarcasm. He is interesting without a doubt, but I think we all know that he will \"turn the corner\" when Joe Morgan becomes intelligent.
In all seriousness, I love the numbers and theories but to me it\'s simple. I really dont see him as someone who wants the game when he is out there. I know that is a broad statement without merit, but that is how I perceive him as a pitcher. If that is how I feel on my couch or in the stands, I can\'t imagine batters are not more or less aggressive as a result. He may want to consider Roger Clemens icy hot pre game to get fired up.
Great article! I will be disappointed if we dont see four more Cabrera related articles before the start of the season!
I think Manny might be able to be a good manager. I mean he knows what it takes to motivate people because he is complacent. He knows how to be a great teammate because he also knows how to be a horrible one. Plus when you get down to it, if morons like Francona and Manuel can win, Manny is not that dumb. The question is, does Manny want to do it?
I guess it would sort or parallel Mark Prior becoming a strength and conditioning coach for pitchers. He has seen every form of rehab there is to see.
The bottom left picture is certainly high hopes. We all know they wont draw that many fans.
Off the top of my head, I know at least 8 different leagues that are currently drafting, already finished, or to be finished before 2/15. While I agree that is way too early, ranking, sorting, and calculating is definitely the most wonderful time of the year. Thanks for this post though, I now know I don\'t have to log in every 15 minutes for at least another 10 days. I can only read so many political comments coming off an election year.
More fantasy coverage in general. I think you could easily add another writer.
Hey Philosopher. I have heard about their relationship through both the Philly media and the MLB reporter assigned to the Phils, Seth Everett (sp?). Most of the friction occurs through Amaro not having any interest in the scouting aspect of the job. Arbuckle said the only time he ever saw Amaro around those situations was when either Gillick or Montgomery were in the area, meaning he was only brown nosing and not actively interested or engaged in his side of the house. More or less, he felt slighted. The day of the parade, Arbuckle supposedly knew of the decision and packed up his belongings right after they finished the celebration.
Supposedly, Marti Wolever, the new director of scouting, is supposedly where the Phils fate lies at this moment. He was Arbuckle\'s right hand man and has as an intimate knowledge of the game. If they lose him, they are in trouble.
Considering this is for a K only, I dont think it means anything. And because of only looking for the result of K, you end up with Livian and Mr. Eaton on the top of the list. Hoffman\'s number supports his amazing career and is more than likely a reason in which he has pitched as long as he has.
I think if you used these numbers in relation to IP or K/9, we might have a significantly better stat to work with. Those would certainly wash out the top and bump up some notables on the bottom of the list. The toughest part would be coming up with a measurable that would not wash out the number of pitches on the delta.
I think the calls even out. Phils got the balk and Victorino pick off in Game 1. As a Phils fan, I am more annoyed at the lack of production with runners on.
For the record, the Umps were equally horrible for both teams.
Anderson, having watched the Phils all year, despite the lead, he is not coming out of the game under 100 pitches provided they have a huge lead. He has said numerous time that he is not messing with Hamels throughout the year. The one great thing about Charlie is, he does not over think things because he can\'t.
Hamels isn\'t out there on short rest at all this series. If he is, I am going to speculate as a relief performance in an elimination game. More than likely 7. Manuel has stood by his side all year in not moving him up or down and keeping him on a strict schedule. The only other way this might be possible is if they have this schedule worked out on the side and the media does not know of it.
Regardless, I think there are a few intangibles here that are not being considered as it pertains to the Phils. Mainly the bottom of their order in the playoffs as well as Myers and Blanton performance in the playoffs. I know I sound nuts, but I am a Phils fan through and through.
Also, getting significantly cooler up here now in Philadelphia. Any strange numbers out there as it pertains to temperature and the game?
Hey Jay, as a Phils fan, I am going to go out on a limb and say that I hope you jinxed your team.
I thought the squeeze was ridiculous at the moment.