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Shyam Das served as an arbitrator for MLB for 13 years until the Braun decision...that length of service would indicate that firing an arbitrator is fairly uncommon, not a regular occurrence.
I would imagine Selig has little or nothing to gain from testifying (setting a precedent might be the least of his downsides...going on the record about the manner in which the Biogensis material was obtained might open him to liability).
I disagree with the statement the the participants show deference to the arbitrator and the process. Perhaps outside the MLB world. MLB's recent history has been the opposite...MLB fired the previous arbitrator for having an opinion with which it disagreed. That's the very opposite of respecting the process.
I'm neither an attorney nor did I spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express, but I wouldn't be surprised if a civil court wouldn't at least entertain the notion that MLB firing the previous arbitrator created an environment in which a high-profile player couldn't reasonably expect a subsequent arbitrator to rule in a player's favor. This saga has had so many sad and bizarre turns I wouldn't rule out the idea that it has a subsequent Act in the courts.
Are there rules limiting how many minor league teams at any levels a franchise can have? Would "have two AA, three high A and four low A teams" be an option for a next-gen moneyball approach of exploring/exploiting a market ineffeciency?
A baseball season is a zero-sum game. If chemistry is a factor in the outcome of games, then let's not just praise the Molinas of the world, but identify and call out the teams that fall short on chemistry grounds.
While we're on the topic, what is Molina's WARC (Wins Above Replacement Chemist)?
Good points on the arbitrators doing the right thing the right way for their own reasons - in the business for the long term, even if current clients fire them. Makes sense.
I still wouldn't want to be the next guy into the process after the last arbitrator got fired. MLB can't seem to get out of its own way. Nothing new about that I suppose.
What impact (if any) does MLB's firing of Shyam Das have over either this arbitration process or aroid's lawsuit?
I'd hate to be the next guy into the arbitration process after the previous arbitrator was fired for, you know, actually looking at the evidence presented (and to be clear, I'm not defending Braun at all - he was a complete jerk-bully throughout his process. But the test wasn't handled per protocol. Technicality, yes. But such details matter in any fair process).
There seems to be some basis for MLB's argument that the lawsuit is preempted by the CBA. Does MLB's firing of the previous arbitrator somehow taint the CBA process? And if so, does that create any appeal right for aroid if he doesn't like the arbitrator's decision?
For luxury tax purposes do the Yanx get hit with the face value of Soriano's contract, or just the net portion they pay? How does this fit in with their stated goal of getting below the threshold for a season to hit the "reset" button?
The closing two sentences hold the key here. Players promoted up are, in the eyes of their teams, ready for that next level. There is a big enough sample size of players promoted level to level to establish the translations for, say, first 100 ABs, or first 250 ABs, or some such indicative stretch. Figure the adjustments for players coming up a level, and apply in reverse to translate big league stats down a level (or two, or three).
There's also a natural ceiling in play. BABIP might go up at lower levels due to lower fielder quality, but it won't exceed some natural limit. It's hard to see any professional baseball defensive group giving up a .700 average on balls in play, for instance. .500 maybe feels like a realistic upper limit. So even if Cabrera never struck out there's some cap to the stats he could accumulate.
I take it the winner of this bracket faces Manny Machado in the Finals?
Any answer coming on the question? HLF doesn't seem to be the average of any of the other win%s. How is it calculated?
I agree. If Harper we're still catching that would be one thing, but even as elite as his power is, he (and now Trout) are corner outfielders. Very, very good corner outfielders. But still, not a premium defensive position.
Machado looked like a good-or-better defensive SS coming up, and has adapted smoothly to third (two minor league games there - he's learned the position at the MLB level). He plays the position with a SS's feet, hands and arm...and as the Rays can attest, a veteran's head.
Finally this may just be an outdated cannard, but aren't doubles predictive of future power for young players? Machado is your league leader in 2Bs...
There's got to be some objective way to measure FOT contributions. Having players with the right skill-sets (i.e., able to provide something greater than simply "replacement level" contributions at a certain specific position) available in-season would seem like a skill if repeated over a long run. Gotta be measurable somehow.
MacPhail laid a nice groundwork of starting caliber MLB players, but Duquette has pulled one >replacement rabbit out of his hat after another. At some point that stops being luck.
I hesitate to read logic into the Brewers' previous form, but might "Bull Dog-to-Quits" be a continuous scale of competitiveness?
PECOTA has passed through the "sample size", "variance" and "regression" stages of grief. Now we're in the "radio silence" phase.
At this point I'm just waiting for the "oops, we found the coding error" phase.
By analyzing whether the roster moves made by FOTs exhibit skill to any statistically significant degree. And then applying that correction to teams in a position to churn certain rsoter spots (for instance, a team with borderline replacement level players at one or more positions, with demonstrated ability to find above replacement level players, may benefit from cycling new players into the roster spot).
Last year Duquette reworked the O's pitching staff several times over, and ended up with a rotation and bullpen that took the Yanx to the 5th game of the ALDS. Was his FOT work luck or skill? I dunno...might be something interesting for BP to look at.
Presuming a MLB could find a way to *ahem* discover a medical issue with a player or two at a convenient time, wouldn't playing nearly all a team's inter-league games in a continuous stretch make things easier?
In other words, the Mets and Phillies are pretty much out of luck when it comes to remaking their roster each time they start an inter-league games, but the Orioles could conceivably see Steve Pearce come down with a hurt somethingorother in the Seattle game on August 4th, replace him with a player more suited to a pinch-hitting / utility fielding role, and be able to reverse the move on...wait for it...August 19th, the next date when they face an AL team.
The most amazing thing about the Giants-Pirates game is the six pinch hitters and a pinch runner. Were the Giants using a two-man rotation? That might explain the ten-run deficit...
It's getting late early for arod to approach Chris Davis' value. Davis has opened the season en fuego (just hit his third HR) and arod, well, arod has almost no value anymore. I think the idea of trading arod anywhere is pretty much DOA.
Does adjusting for age help? Any metric aiming to find a breakout player ought to ignore guys much older than 27 or 28. That much seems logical. Maybe more of a stretch to adjust for only home ST games...the idea being primarily home ST players are somewhat more "established". Again, that second one is a real stretch.
I agree - this is about the only O's preview that is willing to even consider that PECOTA's reversion-to-mean oriented approach should at a minimum consider which 2012 mean to revert to.
The O's changed all their non-core players weekly last season, but, importantly, we're generally fast learners. When a change didn't work, they kept changing. Once it did, they focused on the next issue. That may very well be pure luck and in no way a repeatable skill. Or it may reflect FOT skill. But PECOTA viewing the last season in its entirety misses the seemingly real change that took effect after roughly the All Star break. From that point on the O's record footed to the Pythag and 2nd / 3rd order stats very closely.
They almost certainly give back all the "extra" wins in one run game and extra innings. There's no reason to expect anything other than a .500 record there. That takes them to 83 wins. Over 162 games does the roster that was the best in baseball for the last 60 games of last season sink further to 74 wins, or does it take a small step forward from a "fair" starting assumption of last years actual minus one run luck?
No one has that answer today. But Mike Ferron does us the courtesy of being willing to consider the question.
PECOTA picks the Yanx to finish 13.5 games ahead of the O's. Even taking into account PECOTA's central tendancy I'll still happily take the "under" on the Yanx finishing that far ahead of Balmer.
The Yanx have very few players even at the plateau stage of their aging curve, let alone on the front end. I wouldn't anticipate a free fall, but I don't see how they avoid a slow decline.
The Rays look like the clear class of the AL East. The Jays took a big step forward...if you figure bringing over the right half of the '12 Marlins is a big step forward. The Sawx and O's look to have every bit the chance as the Yanx to finish third.
In reflecting that teams use different rosters as the season progresses how do you model the "survivor bias" for teams that have more candidates than roster spots, and/or are agrressively turning over the roster?
The 2012 (and possibly '13) Orioles as an example. Last season they were basically in extended tryout mode thought the first half. They had guys that turned out the be well below Replacement Level, who disappeared from the roster, and ended the season with roster comprised of guys at or well above RL. They set at least a team if not a league record for players used in a season. Not expecting that level of churn again, but does Pecota include any measure of roster turnover that would expect lesser players to receive less playing time as season progresses, and better players to receive more?
In short, how does Pecota reflect that teams turn over their rosters?
It's not post hoc when you make the observation in real time. I enjoyed their first half success, but had no faith it was sustainable. But very early into the second half it was apparent that there we a number of different players on the field...it was a different team. Literally, a different team.
Yes, bullpen success has a "lightning in a bottle" quality.
What I take issue with is Pecota seemed to make no adjustments for roster turnover. That continues to strike me as short sighted.
They lost blow outs early in the season started by pitchers that were gone by mid season. They won close games on the strength of a bullpen that performed among the best in the game. The weak starters were replaced by mid season, the bullpen continued to excel, and in the second half their W/L performance footed to their run differential. The "outperform" notion is a fair, to an extent, explanation of their April-June last year.
Given that they have close to a dozen starter candidates in camp, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a directionally similar result this season. Early results may be all over the map as they sort through who starts, who moves to the bullpen and who moves to Bowie. With the likely arrival of Bundy and/or Gausman by mid-season, and a survivor bias among the other pitchers, it would be perfectly reasonable for their real W/L record to be "inexplicable" to Pecota.
I'll take the "over", in other words.
They were a team that won close games and lost blowouts in the first half as they sorted through their roster. From roughly the All Star break on they were one of the top 5 teams in MLB, with a win% and run differential that correlated "properly".
They didn't do much this winter...but with Bundy and Gausmann close, Machado already there and returning defensive plus strength up the middle in Weiter, Hardy and Jones, there wasn't that much to do, was there?
Last season Pecota never adjusted for the fact that the O's roster turned over more than any other, that they had a very different team on the field by mid season from the one that broke camp. That was short-sighted, and explains why it missed so badly in helping fans understand how the season unfolded down the stretch.
He'd have to score more than four TDs in the City Championship to surpass Al...
This is a great point, and perhaps even a true Simpson's Paradox. The O's really did have a tale of two halves. They were inexplicably lucky in the first half (closest I can come to an explanation is they lost blowouts started by guys that they ended up getting rid of, and won close games by guys that remained part of the core...but even that doesn't fully explain their first half record). But in the second half they out scored their opponents and produced a record roughly in line with their second-half-only peripheral stats.
BP kept running the playoff odds based on full season stats, and commentators kept being surprised by the O's continued success, but the second half wasn't nearly as fluky as it was made out to be.
The emergence of Machado, the solidification of the bullpen and starting rotation by ditching the poor performers, the solidification of the defense by moving Reynolds away from the hot corner and having him stand on his head at first...lotta things changed by the all star break. I wouldn't expect all of them to regress in 2013.
17 whatifs and the Orioles don't make the 2012 playoffs? Thank God the Mets signed Bay.
0.04 percent huh? so you're saying there's a chance.
Speaking of future bad contracts to avoid...
I doubt many GMs would prefer an increasingly consistently injured 37 y.o. coming off six-straight years of declining OPS / TAV over a 26 y.o. with better overall #s, albeit in his first full season.
Between the two, batting average was same, Davis had nearly 2x as many HRs, leading to the correspondingly higher slugging, OPS and TAV #s. I suppose Davis' #s *could* be just a one-year fluke, but it would be an odd career trajectory to have a 33 HR age-26 season be a player's career peak.
Why would Baltimore be any kind of a fit?
Put aside the difficulty of any inter-divison trade, let alone one this difficult.
Machado was more or less an equivalent player at the hot corner (0.5 WARP in 202 PAs vs 1.2 in 529), lower OBP than arod, better defense, otherwise comparable average and power.
Chris Davis was clearly a better hitter than arod; why take a step back at DH?
Baltimore can best improve it's chances of getting past the Yanx by leaving arod on the Yanx, not by taking him off their hands.
As a life-long O's fan I'm all for Angelos bashing. But ripping him because the Sun ran a story about him staying out of the spotlight? There are so many other, better (fairer) things to rip the guy over.
He didn't write the story or ironically ask for a cover story about his spotlight avoidance. Got to give him that much credit.
I don't give a rat's patootie that the O's aren't *supposed* to win; I'm enjoying September baseball for the first time in a decade-and-a-half. I'll take it.
Hey - easy with the "lowly" description of Lehigh. I went there, and as any Engineer can tell you 15 > 2.
Otherwise a great article. ;-)
Orange/O's, Red/sox, Blue/jays isn't difficult. Black is close enough to the Yanx' midnight blue. And the Rays have that yellow star thingy in their logo...go with yellow. There, that was easy.
Any reason to go with orange for the Yanks line, brown for the *red* sox, and red for the *blue* jays?
I agree that doctoring a baseball or a bat adds to the color of the game. I don't applaud it, per se, but enjoy the game of baseball all the more for doctoring being part of it.
I don't see "doctoring" the players in the same way. Don't think we need to spend tens of millions of taxpayers' dollars prosecuting them, but I don't see that as an admirable part of the game.
Did Gausman switch handedness after the draft? And if so, did the Orioles know he had this in him? If so, THAT is some seriously good scouting work.
I loved the pick as a RHP...as a LHP it's even better.
Or it could be a typo ;-)
It was an almost Jeterian attempt at chicanery.
How does the pick forfeiture rule work? You give up same-round pick following year for going above formula $, or you give up first round pick? i.e., say a Giolito falls to the second round...I can't see the Astros or O's taking him in the first, but if the Rangers, Yanks and Sox pass on a player like that at the bottom of R1, and the over-slot cost is just a R2 pick the following year, I don't see him falling very far at all in the second round.
It's always nice to get the win in your MLB (pitching) debut. Hats off to Chris Davis.
To also record six Ks is even more impressive. Never mind that five of those came as a batter...
Probably just as well the O's don't pick first next year...Duquette would just end up getting them kicked out of another country.
The '66 champs wore cartoon caps...the line drawing caps were changed after the '65 season.
Small sample size, but with Eminem and Ice Cube I think the Tigers' cap has more of a rapper following than does the O's cap.
I agree completely. I like the retro uniforms; I'd *love* to see a retro Orioles team. Bring back the Oriole Way.
An article of top baseball meltdowns of all-time and no Earl Weaver? For shame. The Earl of Baltimore has to win the Lifetime Achievement Award for meltdowns.
:sigh: it's not always good to see Orioles coverage on BP.
Does CHIPPER differentiate by prior injury type? Broken bones would seem (to this layman) poor predictors, whereas muscle, ligament and tendon strains and tears would seem to have better predictive value.
Baseball desperately needs a salary cap and floor.
The annual rising of one not-predetermined team that happens to have a modest payroll, but - importantly - has had good luck and good prospects all align in one given year is the smoke that obscures the fact that spending determines the playoff possibles in baseball.
The Yankees and Red Sox have an annual near-certain probability of being in the playoff hunt to the end. The other 12 AL teams have far, far lower chances of being in the mix.
The fact that one lower payroll team happens to pop up out of the mix each season (only, inevitably, to regress w/in a year or two) proves the rule.
Cap and floor - tighten the spending band from both the top *and* the bottom.
I expect Uehara to be a very effective bullpen arm this year, but I'd take the "under" on 27 saves for him, and the "over" on both Gregg and Gonzo at 4 and 3 respectively.
Uehara is the favorite for the role right now.
Working backwards the early order is Uehara, Gregg then Gonzalez. But all three have closer experience, and Uehara and Gonzo have recent health issues, so don't go writing anything down in pen.
No pun intended.
I agree. Whether its Tillman, Hendrickson or the Duke, I see Britton getting a dozen starts over the second half.
Grow the arms, buy the bats. AMac is working the plan.
Interesting study. I remember reading years ago that Cal Ripken would position himself a couple steps either way based on the pitch and count...in motion not with the crack of the bat, but even before the pitch was thrown.
He compared how helpful this was coming up in the "Oriole Way", and how frustrating it was mid-career when the O's trotted out a staff of younger pitchers that couldn't hit their targets. Not much use in setting up in the "right" place if the pitch goes to the wrong one.
But still, consistent with playing defense based on pitch location.
As in "solid...but not spectacular"? I agree up to a point. He's solidly better than average, even if he's not looking like a HOFer in waiting.
He's a five year starter heading into his age-27 season, having averaged a 4.1 WARP per year so far. A 1.7 WARP seems like a low-end projection.
On the other hand, after enduring multiples vortexes of suck all throughout the lineup last year, it's just nice to see black numbers for all 9 regulars, all 5 starters and half the bullpen.
Too bad Pitch/fx wasn't around in `97 for the NLCS. It'd be cool to look at just how far Gregg was stretching the K zone, and where the catcher's glove was set.
W.W.Keeler would be 139 this season. He might have been an upgrade at 3B last year, but he definitely would NOT be an upgrade over Markakis ;-D
Reimold's 2010 was basically an extneded recovery period from his '09 achilies injury. I don't think he's had any sort of "permanent" loss of power, so much as it took longer than he (and the O's) thought it would to get his legs back to 100% after the tendon surgery.
As of mid-Feb he looks like the 5th wheel in the OF, and with an option, a probable AAA candidate. That's as of mid-Feb. 162 game season have a funny way of unfolding...Reimold may yet make an impact in Balm'r this year.
As an O's fan I hope Cashman doesn't have a BP subscription.
BC: Please, please pay Jeter top dollar for his intangible value. Six years would be great; seven or eight even better.
Thank you for the C.Joseph update.
Seriously - another Scorpions update and still nothing on a single O's prospect? They did send nine players, including 3 of their top-10 prospects (as per Baseball America) in Adams, Pelzer and Avery.
Aren't *any* Orioles prospects playing in the AFL?
Steinbrenner gets a monument bigger than those of Ruth, Gherig, DiMaggio and Mantle...combined.
Vanity thy name is George.
I have no problem with someone advancing the discussion of Rose's HOF candidacy. As I said in my original post, Rose is a single stat accumulator...argue if that warrants HOF inclusion.
This article was a baseless attack on a commissioner who properly applied his responsibility to punish. It's horrible in any context. But it's also useless in advancing a discussion on Rose's credentials.
What a complete load of horse shit. This is nothing more than a borderline libelous attack on Giamatti.
Can you support the statement "certainly there is evidence that Giamatti had been out to get Rose"? What supports your notion that ABG had a purported vendetta?
ABG applied his powers to punish in a progressively strict manner in the hope of changing behavior. That Rose's psycopathy knew no bounds is not evidence of a "vendetta" on ABG's part.
Rose is a convicted felon. He has been and remains a pathological liar. He lied both to baseball and federal authorities, even in the face of incontrovertible evidence laying bare his lies.
Rose was unquestionably a driven accumulator of a single stat. Start a discussion about his relative greatness around the merits of his "rate vs total" accomplishments.
But save the "the bitch set me up" nonsense for a Queen City barroom.
I'm so tired of lake trout. Time for a trip to Faidley's.
This seems like it had a lot of potential to be an interesting story...if only it had been written well. It reads like a writer's notebook of ideas; Editor please.
Janet Murk's hitting was the lead topic, but never revisited. Her coaching apparently had the lasting impact.
You played for her as a 10-year old? Or played for her for three years? The piece implies both.
What does Scheinblum's age have to do with anything? It's interesting to know that birthday-shaving precedes Miguel Tejada and Danny Almonte...but was there a point to adding that, let alone ending on it?
This was the 1950s, not the 1890s...catchers wore masks. How did your nose get broken on a deflected pitch?
Reimold didn't just get Wally Pipp'd by Patterson. His achilies still isn't 100% and he's off to a freazing cold start...this is nothing more than a temporary shake-up move.
For the most part you can't fire the players, but in the case of Reimold (and Bergesen) you can send them to Tidewater to get their heads back on straight. Reimold will be back in Balmer w/in a month.
This hardly qualifies as organizational lurching. Patterson is hitting now, Reimold isn't. Their largely fungible LF at this point, why not swap `em out for a few weeks?
Para 2 edit: -w-o-r-l-d- national league
Are you #$%# kidding me?
I know the O's have stunk on ice for a while now, but are things really so bad that BP is retroactively stripping them of their `83 title?
It's hard enough being a die-hard O's fan these days. Please don't take away the good old days.
I understand the Super Two designation, but how does the tie-breaker work? Was there actually a coin flip?
It's nice to see the O's climbing the standings before we even play a game...78 wins....79 wins...80 wins.
Keep up the good work PECOTA, we'll be above .500 yet.
Take your tiume and get it right before you release it. It's tough to put the toothpaste back in the tube once you put bad data out there.
I for one can live with the info 15 days before pitchers and catchers report instead of 18 days ahead. The world will keep turning if we have to wait a day or three for accurate data.
You compare Olbermann and Limbaugh saying one deals in reality and the other makes things up to fit his agenda. For the record, which is which?
There\'s a near-perfect positive correlation between the degree to which the comments above are in favor of KO\'s forward and the users\' collective rating of the comment itself. You don\'t need a WARP3 analysis to determine the ratings are based largely on the support or disdain expressed for KO.
My objection to Olbermann is not based on his politics, but rather on his style: for the last decade his profession has been to use rhetoric to present selected facts in his desired light; this is diametrically opposed to BP\'s approach, which is to take into account as many facts as possible, analyze them openly and honestly and find the underlying truth, irrespective of whether it supports or confronts a popular view.
Again, he seems an odd fit for BP\'s flagship publication, at least style-wise.
Makes sense. Nate\'s work on 538 is as analytically prepared as was his work here; I like the irony that his decidely southpaw site is labelled politics done right. ;-)
At least W\'d have the advantage of having a direct connection to baseball. Oh, wait, that\'s right, Olbermann really really liked collecting baseball cards.
Olbermann selective regard for facts and his overtly partisan approach are 180 degrees removed from the thoughtful, analytical \'consider everyting\' approach BP has taken. BP has made its name fighting through the rhetoric, taking into account all the data and discovering underlying truths. Olberman makes a living trumpeting partisan rhetoric at the expense of truth.
I don\'t see the fit.
I know when I think of cogent baseball analysis I think Olberman...after I\'ve thought of maybe six thousand other names. Could you have come up with a worse choice?
In Baltimore it\'s Faidley\'s for crab cakes (don\'t scrimp, get the jumbo lump). Old Bay on about anything. And then finish it off with a Berger cookie. You can find it all in Lexington Market, about seven blocks north of the inner harbour. Maybe a 15 minute walk back down to Camden Yards.
The O\'s may stink on ice, but at least the crab cakes can\'t be beat.
The should read \"game specific revenue\".
Expanded playoffs aren\'t so much an equalizer as they are a randomizer. An 83-win team can come out of either of the West divisions and run off three \"best of\" series in arow, true. But it took five near perfect drafts in a row for the Rays to become the \'equals\' of the Yanx and Sawx. Does anyone really think the O\'s and Jays can do merely a good job of drafting and player development and have a postseason possibility that is the \"equal\" of the Angels?
Why do we assume only national TV revenues should be shared? There\'s nothing sacrosanct about local TV.
I live in CT an none of my friends or neighbors would tune in to MSG to watch a Yanx intrasquad scrimmage. They tune in to watch the Yanx play the Rays, the Royals, the Indians and the Rangers.
It takes two to tango. The Yanx don\'t have a viable MSG network without legitimate teams coming into Yankee Stadium to play. The can\'t command $2,500 / seat without there being some other non-Yankees team on the field.
It strikes me as perfectly legitimate within the construct of a league for nearly all bame-specific revenue to be split evenly (this would be broadcast revenue, primarily).
I make the exception for attendence-specific revenue (tickets, parking, hot dogs, etc.). The home team should keep the bulk of this, as an incentive to maximize fannies in the seats.
With shared revenue comes shared responsibility...the Pirates et al would now have the means to pay a representative MLB payroll, and would have to do so.
Here\'s a great site with a bunch of sports logos: http://www.sportslogos.net/
O\'s: Extend Markakis / Roberts; finish a gentleman\'s second in FA bidding for Tex and AJB. But mostly just put \"Baltimore\" on the road jerseys.