CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
Anybody else get a pop-up ad for Target? I'm all for keeping costs down with ad revenue, but when they start popping up in my face or playing videos, that's where my bandwidth drags down and I get annoyed. Customer feedback delivered, now to read article
That possibility never crossed my mind. Thanks
They've got plenty of time to figure out the infield.
Hmm, I don't follow the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=GB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('GB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">GB</span></a> and FB numbers.
He's more than twice as likely to post a monthly <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> under .700 as he is to post one over .800. To me that's a frustrating guy to have on the field, more often a slap happy out maker in a critical lineup slot than anything else. Two full months over 1.2 OPS, two months in .800 range. That's it so far for his career. I think he has a nice swing and want him to be a star, but for me that means consistent OPS .775-.850 without quite so deep or frequent slump potential.
I think my point is rooted in your opening statement about the hot hand fallacy. It's tempting to say look at how great he is now and project fantastic things. Right or wrong, we've seen this before, but we've seen a lot more of .600 OPS Kipnis than star Kipnis.
"Horrible" from a fantasy perspective. He spent the latter 1/3 of the year on the waiver wire after cratering from June. If you take April/May average <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a>+ = 98. July/August = 100. Not very exciting. September was too late to matter and he finished hot, going 7 for 13. I want to believe in Kipnis, but he has a history of being all or nothing. IMO, there are rare players who make a career out the annual torrid streak. Kipnis, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47142">Jay Bruce</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=353">Shawn Green</a></span>.
Okay, so it was June 2013. Close enough. Point is, we've seen this before.
See Kipnis, Jason. Year 2013. Stellar May, beyond awesome. Horrible the rest of the year. There are players with incredible talent, but can't put it together consistently (I says). You heard it first from this layman, he will be his pedestrian self the rest of the year and finish with a good line, because it's what he does.
I lump prime <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=353">Shawn Green</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47142">Jay Bruce</a></span> into this category of players who manage to have one ferocious hot streak every season that skews our perception of them as players.
Along these lines, what if you had a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1499">David Ortiz</a></span> or other stud type that you only used as a pinch hitter for whomever whatsoever at the most critical junctures of the game? Bases loaded, here comes Ortiz. Need a run? Here comes Ortiz.
If Joey Bats and E5 are any indication, Dayan will have a catchy nickname soon and hit a lot of home runs in Toronto
What about Derek Norris getting two bases loaded walks in the same game? That's gotta be pretty rare, right?
Kipnis had stretch last year- 5-6 weeks of utter dominance. But the rest of the time, he was putrid. I have to disagree about buying.
Hinger, ginger, finger, einger.... nope
One interesting thing to note is the quality of the hitters in each sample. The disparity is pretty amazing:
Beneficiaries- Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Votto, Desmond, R. Tejada
Victims- LaStella, Choice, Dyson, Weeks, S. Rodriguez
You mean former top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall? Mentioned in the same breath as Jason Kipnis Lonnie Chisenhall?
Astros! Yes, shuffle pitchers around the diamond to maintain platoon advantage! Why not, I say. Why not. There's an edge to be exploited here
Kipnis was a beast last year for a few weeks, then tailed off so much after June that he wound up on the waiver wire with no takers.
He started the year with an elbow injury, got scorching hot, then evaporated. Was there an injury? What can be said of his true talent level?
The erratic production scares me away from an early round selection, even with the dearth of standout keystoners
Who wouldn't rather have a mug than a dollar? At least you weren't studying the Kitty Genovese effect. There must be a baseball corollary. The Marlins maybe
I miss Fire Joe Morgan. That is all
What about Jason "insane for one month and a black hole for the other five" Kipnis?
I love the charts. Very utile
7101 PA that year must have been exhausting
Is Kipnis really all that? Feast or famine type with more famine than feast
All right, so that's once per inning. I could work with that. That's still an extra platoon advantage or two every inning, depending on lineup structure
Along these lines, my fantasy vision, what if instead of a first baseman, a team used a tandem LHP and RHP? That is, either the lefty on the mound and the righty at first or vice versa to achieve a platoon advantage over the batter at all times?
It would make an interesting study, hint, hint.
Tonight's out at the plate sponsored by not running all out from second to third. Don't take anything for granted, kids
Okay. Yahoo fantasy has him going on Monday. Wish things were more consistent/predictable this time of year
Do the Sox have a 6 man rotation again or something?
Like the 4 minute mile or 10 second 100-yard dash, perhaps 115 pitches is just plain pushing the limits of human endurance. I doubt it's been tried, but what if we took 100 guys and had them throw 125 pitches in a simulated game setting. Every 15 pitches, the subject would receive an MRI or FMRI or whatever on his arm. This assumes the medical testing wouldn't take much longer than an average half-inning.
Now I know what valuable knowledge I can leave as my legacy after I win the lottery.
When I was catching, I wore jingle bells, spurs, dangly-jangly earrings, and hung wind chimes from my back pocket. I also coughed and swore a lot when not busy spitting on the batter's shoes
At some point you have to figure the body fatigues and you start using muscles differently. Bumming around in the weight room I've learned that one false move when tired can leave my back angry for days. Logical to contend that at some point the will to continue passes the body's ability to continue IN SAFE FORM. Results may not be measurably different, but the process ends up wrecking the arm.
Is "forearm tightness" ever NOT actually an undiagnosed an elbow injury?
I'd be proud to make these lists. A who's who of declining stars and Jason Bartlett
His breaking ball windup is perceptibly faster, in this sample anyway.
Can you reverse engineer it? What minor league stats would project to .360/450/600 or whatever Miggy is at?
I envision this translated into Swing situation tables similar to blackjack tables. Stay on 3-ball count with pitcher 3.2 BB/9 and batter OPS under .342, e.g.
Hamilton needs to start chewing again
Two Brewers and two Braves in the leaders. Three straight Mariners in the trailers. Interesting.
Daric Barton is pretty much a discipline only guy these days. Probably too much ISO for this list.
A day with a Dusty Baker joke is a good day indeed. Where have you gone Fire Joe Dimorgio
On a scale of Gookie Dawkins to Pokey Reese,where does Scooter Gennett fall?
Teixeira has 8 career grand slams off Masterson!! I only make comments that make me look like a prick. Brought to you by Commas for America Super PAC
In an FJM-less world, there was this piece, and it gave them hope
As opposed to all the times when he said, "take me out coach. This guy's got my number and my wet noodle arm is about to go all Dave Dravecky on me. I suck and I'm tired and my lady parts hurt."
The Hamilton. Thank you
I recall Matt Cain was for many years the sabermetric whipping boy, compiling improbably low BABIP rates. Are there any similarities with the Zim?
You guys got me addicted to Billy Hamilton stats last year and, darn it, I want my BH update
It could have been a really long game
Love the reference to bizarre triples leaders. So true
Good point. Truly, "people" are not known or great feats of rationality.
I logged onto BP hoping to see a blog post or something on this topic. This surpassed my expectations.
Oh man, Paste was a beast. And with Bay batting behind him? Unstoppable.
I swear they should piggyback starters in the bigs. Get rid of the third time through the lineup meltdown and you have a larger talent pool to choose from
I noticed at 30 my body starting to break down. Sore joints. Pulled muscles. Slow recovery from physical exertion. They say the brain is still maturing to age 25, perhaps there's a full body peak in the late 20's, followed by a slow-rapid tail off of functioning, different for everyone. Because baseball is taxing on so many levels, the mind-body connection can be easily thrown just enough out of whack to trash a career.
Does it let you:
A. pinch hit with pitchers
B. use a pitcher as a position player
C. use a position player as a pitcher
D. move a pitcher from the mound to a position
If this is finally a game that allows full flexibility in accordance with MLB rules, you will have sold me on this enterprise, sir.
I don't recall him as a 40 win player... Without fact checking, I'll bet Bonds + Clemens + PEDs = 12 applicable WARP in one of those years
Loving the word cloud. Just loving it
You rated Cron as a 2 for running. That makes me giggle.
What would happen if you just related player weight ( adjusted for era of course) and tried to correlate that with Pythagorean record, speed score, etc? We already believe that fat guys are slower.
Yuni as an insurance policy is like when you die and the insurance company can't find your beneficiaries so they start taking your monthly premiums out of your payout until it's drained
No mention of Jupton's yawn inducing road stats? How does Turner stack up against Chase?
I heard he starts every season with a frozen chicken in his locker. At first it's a tad eccentric, but later, as the seasons turn, this superstition gets ugly.
Howard a better hitter than Dunn?
Thanks for inspiring me to visit firejoemorgan..com. Those guys loved Verducci
You're only capturing about 50% of Mark Kotsay's last 4 years on the bigs with your sample. Any methodology should start with him and work backwards to define the set
Umm, *without him.
Wine is no Internet chat room PED. I swear
It was actually Clemens's blood that Barry, et. al. was injected with. With him there was no PED era.
Do we know it's not one and the same Miho? Koji could be the Japanese Wade Boggs
And the elephant in the room is a certain free agent and former Red, who happens to play center. Tommy Hambone? Jack Houlihan? What is that guy's name
A savant who says that he needs more high-OBP guys to bat in the bottom part of his lineup... Methinks keep this man plied with a healthy stock of pitchers
I agree. I am unable to see the appeal in Passan's work it usually leaves me banging my head against nearby surfaces. So much so that I refuse to read any of it. He is the anti-oonboon
I dunno, Marty Multiplying has a nice ring to.
That young man is soooo handsome (and good with his calculator, too)
Why no just go 3-2 instead? If the favorites can't win in three, let them face death on the road.
I completely agree. Kozma doesn't look in Holliday's direction. Holliday looks bewildered, as if he had no intention of calling Kozma off. It was dropped because of the ump's late, late call. The call I say was right, the timing not so much, and it was the Cardinals who got the worst of it.
Why do the A's open on the road a a 2 seed?
Ironic that Balfour is way better than Outman
Thanks for the update on the bizarre Bernie dance trend. I had no idea my favorite team was so into the movie I loved so much in fifth grade.
This is something I'd like to see more of- in depth scouting of big leaguers
What's up with the helmet chewing?
The German subtitles make that H2m2 scene.
Huh, a talented young arm burning up under Dusty Baker's watch. Who would have thought?
Only if he "tried" to get out of the way
HA! I may have to pay attention to Twitter now.
Have to wonder about brain damage or other cognitive factors resulting from the incident propelled him down this disturbing new path. Truly tragic for all involved.
Which one of these is not like the others? Or: Girardi, you Goonie!
Strasburg didn't bat in college or the minors and then was able to produce that batting line over any sample size? That's amazing
Good theories. Maybe these guys are outliers in their ability to detect pain. Hurts less to get beaned, don't feel that hammy tighten up until it rips, etc.
The real question is did you have to rewatch that Naked Gun bit or are you my new best friend?
You know who else scavenges other people's ideas? Damon Lindelof. Not an appropriate place to vent about disappointing movies, you say? Too bad. Prometheus could have been so much more. Super 8 could have been actually super. Props to Clapton for being a man about things.
Surely (Shirley), some out of contention clubs could spare players. Are Braun, Mauer, Butler, Gordon, Morneau, Crawford, or BJ Upton doing anything meaningful right now? Loria would be stoked to send his MLB roster abroad if MLB picked up the tab. Oh Selig, when will you retire?
Chavez probably just isn't as clutchy as A-Rod
I used tobacco in one form or another for 10 years. Chewing tobacco is the form I miss. 5 years since my last dip, I have recurring dreams about having a mouth full of Copenhagen. Good luck to you, Josh
I misread Quincy Latimore as Queen Latifah. Same difference, it seems, which appears to be your point.
Haha! Fireworks. Sure an explosive team this year.
With Lin out of the picture, New York needed a new Asian sensation. This decision came from way over Cashman's head.
Who cares about the guys in round 4-10? There's a 98% chance they amount to organizational filler with 4th outfielder upside. Pay Appel 5 slots worth of money and offer the rest a box of donuts.
Micah Owings has identified a key market inefficiency. I want to see tandem Loogy/Roogy at 1b & Sp. box score would look like
Prove to me that that arrangement would not be beneficial. Go.
And I was afraid you were actually going to say nice things about that terrible, terrible man. Looking forward to your first reexamination of the value of consistency as a hitter.
R, L, R, L, L, R, R, L, R
Why do I suspect Sam is setting us up? I'll bet the fat pitches were 75% outs.
Any prediction for Carlos Santana? I drafted him this spring. Then I watched an Indians preseason game and asked myself how a guy with such an ugly swing be such a good hitter. Should have trusted my eye or is there a rebound coming?
And with a diving stop, OonBoon from out of nowhere! A devastating blow to the title hopes of the heavily favored Bourgeoisie Prospectans
Catchy tune you got there
Bring Jamie Moyer back to throw him 500 off speed pitches a day
The Reds' lack of interest in promoting Hamilton is discouraging. Seems like the guy has been around forever, yet is still in high A. Someone in that org needs to make a decision about this guy
My favorite band (Meshuggah) and my home town (Walla Walla) all in one paragraph. Bravo to you, sir.
Maybe a comp to another Perez is more apt: Oliver
Did it say favourite or something?
This is close to how I would manage a bad club, but seems like it would wear down relievers. I would slash down to a 10 man bullpen and use my best 8 guys as tandem starters. Two times through the lineup, or 90 pitches, and here comes the hook.
NIck Swisher and Joe Mauer are banged up. How are they doing?
Thanks for the Eric O'Flaherty triva
-#dudes who live in Walla Walla, WA
Nice use of SI units
Two wise men once said, "SCHWING!"
Dana Eveland?? Every time I hear his name is in conjunction with giving up a ton of runs. I'd be interested in the Eveland All Stars: highst ratio of ER to HR or smething
For the love of Bonds, turn off the lights when you leave the room!
"We're not overusing our guys," Dusty Baker said, as he summoned to the mound his formerly sore shouldered and currently second most valuable player for the sixth time in eight days. "I mean, if we were overusing these guys, we'd like totally know it because they'd be like hurt and stuff. The important thing is uh innings count or something. If he pitches um an inning every game then that's let me see like 20 innings a year, or something. Not too sure but I think that's about it but I mean the calculus of the hypotenuse under the... minus the derivative... 25 innings and 45 pitches thrown! Good to see I still got the old magic in the noggin."
I've listened to many a ballgame voiced by Steve Stone, and I had absolutely no idea he had won a Cy Young award. Nor that he had played professionally.
Long live the anti-Joe Morgan!
I was waiting in line to buy a ticket once at old Busch Stadium. A scalper came up and just gave one to me.
They're not all bad, is the moral of the story.
What will happen next year when the Astros are in the AL West? Odd number of teams in each league = interleague play every single day?
They need to blow up the entire roster: those guys you say plus Halladay and Lee.
Maybe they got a pep talk from Brady Anderson
"Jered Weaver was walking off and singing along with the fans in Arlington. "
I expect the souvenirs are very much treasured. My friend's dad in the Peace Corps has been striking up games in a village in Moldova. He's become quite popular for having brought three new baseballs and a bat that's not taped together. I guess there was an ex-minor league guy that popped into the area five years ago, set up a field, donated some equipment, gave some lessons, and poof- fans were created.
Is there any rhyme or reason to how players are arranged on this list? I spend a lot of time scrolling around looking for the guys I want to find.
From the Dusty Baker Predicatron: (Lineup slot : times faced)
9: 6 (all pinch hitters)
Can anything be learned from this? Dusty avoids pitching Chapman to the 2-3 hitters?
Boy, I'll bet Seattle would like to have Bryan LaHair and Mike Morse back. Oops
“Taylor still lives with his parents, at the end of a street named after him.”-- priceless
I carried an extra 10 somehow. His bunch pace is actually 50/75 games, or only 108 hrs per year. Doesn't change the Pecota comp, though
Pujols 2011: hr/ games
3/31-4/13: 1/12 drought
4/14-4/23: 6/9 bunch
4/24-5/29: 1/33 drought
5/30-6/7: 6/8 bunch
6/8-8/21: 17/51 steady
8/22-8/30: 0/7 drought
8/31-9/1: 3/2 bunch
9/2-9/28: 3/25 drought
2010: hr/games (6 multihomer games)
4/5-4/12: 5/7 bunch
4/14-5/26: 3/39 drought
5/27-6/6: 6/10 bunch
6/7-6/26: 1/17 drought
6/27-7/3: 5/7 bunch
7/4-7/30: 3/22 drought
7/31-8/27: 12/23 bunch
8/28-9/7: 0/10 drought
9/8-9/12: 4/5 bunch
9/13-9/22: 0/9 drought
9/23-9/26: 3/4 bunch
9/27-10/3: 0/6 drought
bunch: 60 homers in 75 games (130 hrs per 162 games = God himself)
drought: 12 homers in 174 games (11 hrs per 162 games = Casey Kotchman)
steady: 17 homers in 51 games (54 hrs per 162 games = prime Pujols)
How does Billy Hamilton b. 1990 compare to Billy Hamilton b. 1866?
Not in the depth my OCD requires
It's been said before, but I would love to see scouting reports on current big league players. So and so's bat speed has slowed, so and so has packed on the pounds, etc
Good point on the wrist injury. What if it hurts him to check his swing? I don't know what a typical rate of check swings would be, probably less than 7% of pitches, but maybe not. Maybe he has to take full hacks or risk shredding something internal.
The Oldland A's are out drawing the Seattle New
-Stadium-in-my-Lifetime-iners. That tickles this displaced fan to no end
Is MLB unusually short of LH power hitters these days? I blame Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Adam Lind for last year's data.
Bruce was wretched, save for a 6-week stretch early last year. He seems to be on the Alex Gordon career path.
Wow. I heart Strasburg
Ross has some interesting career splits. The dude is terrible in July, bad in August, and Pujolsian the rest of the year.
Quit yer bicheing
I saw Joe Mather play on WGN in a spring training game. I'm not necessarily a Cubs fan, but man did he look like a player that day against the Indians.
The only irk I have with the opening day shenanigans is that now my fantasy baseball lineup is due four days before rosters are set. Ouch.
Coach batted me third one day my last season of Little League ball. Only time in my career I went 0-3 with 3 K's. It's a real effect.
Three points for the obscure Cheers reference in the Millwood section.
How is Nick Johnson not in an Oakland uniform?
1B/DH type? Check
Really good at one thing? Check
I've always wondered if talent disparities such as this directly contribute to the perception of clutchiness. A guy that pounds the back end of the rotation and flails against the front end, will sure look like a winner with his overall season line, and draw the admiration fans, but watch him suck in the playoffs. The best playoff batters are the ones who can hit the best pitching. I'd like to see similar work done in search of an apparent clutchiness factor.
What's to stop a team from bidding $1,000,000,000 on a Japanese player who they have no intention of signing? Is there a good faith clause or are they afraid that a player would accept a 1 year minimum salary minor league contract with 9 club options at MLB minimum?
Clearly David Wright AKA "Jheurilys Encabronzalez" is much older than he claims.
Tuscon, where Anthony Rizzo becomes a great prospect and I become the next John Daly. Seriously, it's a great place to golf. If you want to see your 240 yard quacker morph into a 325 yard fairway splitter, then that is the next destination for you, my friend. I don't imagine the effect is any less radical no matter what ball you're hitting.
If he goes to the AL, kiss those extra homers goodbye
Look for Burrell to sign across the bay in Oakland. Billy Beane loves him some flawed and aging outfielders.
Glaus was amazing from May 1st to June 15th. The entire rest of the season he's been terrible.
How did Sheets not get dealt early, relative to the deadline, ala Hurtin' Rich Harden? We should probably blame the World Cup. Thanks for nothing, Billy Beane!
I hope you're right about Hughes... he's mediocre at best at home.
D'oh! NLCS, World Series same difference.
And Torre needs to go. He's turning into Joe Morgan in his old age. Of course, we all knew this the moment Russell Martin stepped to the plate with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 8th inning down by 5 in the last game of the World Series, with Hammerin' Jim Thome suckin on some chaw on the pine, playing tiddlywinks with Tommy Lasorda, or whatever guys with 564 homers do when they're sitting in the dugout.
The Pads should take a page out of Billy Beane's playbook and trade for right-handed dynamo Kevin Kouzmanoff. As miserable as he's been this year, his OPS is 75 points higher in the 2nd half. The A's and Pads have already demonstrated a willingness to trade guys back and forth to each other. Aaron Cunningham would be a good low cost guy to take over in LF for the A's.
How about a most disappointing team relative to draft position? I suspect that my few could top my Mauer, Aaron Hill, Pablo Sandoval, and Yunel Escobar debacle. Throw in drafting Berkman prior to the injury news and you have a lot of benchwarming done by guys I drafted in the first 10 rounds. Justin Slumpton hasn't done me much good either, other than jacking 3 homers the one week I benched him.
Stop the presses! The sky is falling!
Statistics only please. Preferably presented in binary code format or hexidecimal.
On that note, what on earth is wrong with Aaron Hill and Pablo Sandoval?
They called him too fat! He'll have a chip on his shoulder his whole life. He'll come back strong from his 2015 Tommy John surgery. This is not Pretty-Boy Prior we're talking about here.
Awesome history. None moreso than the idea of poor children dodging balls of stool.
Holy moley I didn't write that! Must be time to change my password?
Kaz Matsui needs to have his PR people contact Dunn's people. ANAL FISSURE will forever be associated in my mind with Kaz Matsui. It's like the ALS of fissures.
Perez will sign with STL next year for 1 year at $500k, strike out 176 guys with a 3.18 ERA, then sign a 3 year contract with CHI for $34MM and go back to being garbage.
What about this guy: Rojo Johnson
Isn't Zaun actually older than AJ Hinch?
This was supposed to have been a reply to tommybones
What's your solution then? Whack the kid over the head with a billy club? What if the officer had used a lasso?
What about the rights of the police officer and of the players themselves? The rights of the law abiding citizens and the enforcement officer are paramount to concerns for the CRIMINAL. Why should the police officer be forced to put his own physical well-being in jeopardy? The offender could have come out biting, scratching, pulled a knife, whatever.
'Some here are going to say, “Well, he could have been.” Sure. But by that standard, you have to suspect that everyone could pose a threat of bodily harm'
Let me be the first, but with one qualifier: You have to suspect that everyone - who intentionally and without authorization enters onto the field during a professional sporting event- could pose a threat of bodily harm.
Better to taze 600 goofy teenagers than let one more athlete get stabbed by a psycho. There's a large element of trust involved for a man to stand alone in a field of grass amongst 50,000 hostile humans, some drunk, some crazy, some impulsive. A zero tolerance policy with tazers on full is the only way to foster this complete trust, short of outfield fences topped with razor wire and snipers perched in the light towers.
Seidnotes Idea 1: is it better to give your regulars a day off all at once, or staggered throughout the week? That is, would a team with a lineup of 8 regulars and 1 replacement player 7 days a week out-perform a team of 9 regulars 6 days a week with a lineup of 9 scrubs on the 7th day?
Seidnotes Idea 2: Could a team maximize its performance by micro-managing starting pitching matchups? Which is to say, if your ace is better than my ace, but my second tier starters are better than yours, should I punt the matchup against the ace, by trotting out my 5th starter? The idea is similar to a pinochle type strategy where I would throw my junk out there for you to waste your trump cards on and then slaughter you with the superior strength of my other cards.
Ah, Ben Grieve, the human DP, as I liked to call him. Whither hast thou gone?
How perfect a name is Douthit to hold such a record? How can you not pronounce it Da Out Hit.
"was living up to all expectations by whiffing 19 over two innings"
Two one-liners come to mind:
Now THAT is some filthy stuff
Wow, who was catching, Thurmon Munson?
Adrian Gonzalez comes to mind as well.
What's with Billy Beane and outfielders? There must be 70 4A outfielders in the organization by now.
This is also a test
this is a test
Is the contract insured against injury?
In one of the stranger incidences in baseball history, on April 1st, 2010, Colema... whooops Wells was horribly injured in a tarp machine mishap. Before Game 1 of the Season, Wells was on the field when the decision was made to cover the field because of a light rain somehow leaking through the dome roof. Wells failed to notice that 12 mechanical tarp rollers approaching him from every direction had come onto the field to "keep the infield dry." Tarp machines rolled over Wells' legs, arms, toes, chest, ears, nose, and hair, crushing every bone in his body beyond repair and ending his season. Seven years later he re-emerged from Bill Gates' secret lair as MSWells, Seattle bio-slugger.
This reminds of the cultural assumption I questioned the other day- why do fill our toilets with clean treated drinking water? Why not fill our tanks with waste run off from the shower or wash basin? And I'm not trying to make commentary on this article, jsut bandying about the possibility that there's a better way to pee.
Wow, lucky for Philly fans that Torre let Martin bat over Thome and his 9th ranking in WRC
Would it be possible to start Ray Halladay in RF and Cole Hamels at P, and then swap them after each batter? This is what I want to do, but haven't found a game in years that would allow even to bring in a position player to pitch, much less the other way around, or bring a current fielder up to pitch.
"I'm starting to think that pitch counts are the global warming of baseball. No matter how much evidence there is, faith trumps science until the tides come in."
Are there any front offices in baseball doing progressive things to limit the environmental impacts of their club? I can't help but wonder what it would do for the cause if the Yankees loudly and publicly went green.
Is this not a perfect allegorical discussion of climate change? Picture BP as Gore, the Reds pitching staff playing the role of Earth, and Dusty as the cigar smoking, H4 driving gasoline lobbyist. Assume dependent variables B and C strongly correlates with independent variable A.
B is awful, miserable, career destroying, earth-shatteringly terrible, and C is trying to squeeze out a win on a team with no chance of making the playoffs, drowning islanders and polar bears.
Isn't the rational response action to decrease A, pitches thrown (fossil fuels consumed), until such time as we are smart enough to fully understand the effects, such that we learn how to milk the last PAP out of young guns without breaking them (climatic calamity)? If the GMs aren't aware enough to can DB, Reds fans have a responsibility to railroad Baker out of town.
Am eagerly anticipating the release of Rafael Rodriguez's first album, "Gigantico Galactico."
One would think that after spending 1,061 years as a running back, Lars would have scored more than 17 touchdowns. If he rushed for 1,000 yards in only 1,000 of those seasons, he would reach 1,000,000 yards. How come I've never heard of this guy?
Oh ho, so you're the one that killed Chipper's 2009! Chipper pre-8/4/09: 92/322 = 0.285
post(and including)-8/4/09: 37/166 = 0.223
And yes I am willfully ignoring the fact that Chipper went on a tear, hitting 16/27 immediately after you made your observation.
I don't know... an infield with two third basemen sounds pretty solid to me, even if they are Uggla and Cantu :)
At first glance I thought you said Vince Coleman performed the procedure
My experience to a tee, less one comforting stuffed frog that, had it been a live organism, would have had its innards bursting from the weakest biological seam. Yes, I was a 24 year old man with a 300 lb bench press clutching a stuffed animal in terror as my vision went black, while the stinking, clicking laser worked its magic. Yes, I am man enough to admit this anonymously. That said, this is the greatest gift a person could give one's self, IMHO.
Which is to say that repetition is the mother of learning.
How I envision stepping up to the plate while playing for Ozzie: "Wait for your pitch, now, wait for it, wait for your pitch... Hey now why the *** did you swing at that ****'s **** garbage ****, you dumb *** **** ****!?! I tell you every **** practice to wait for your **** pitch and you **** swing when I tell you not to ***** swing!!! You're gonna run tonight until your **** turns into a **** ***** ****!!!!"
As an atheist, much closer to an A's-theist than any other theism, this news is a painful blow. I hope he gets struck by a lightning bolt.
Say it ain't so!! WHY God, why did you lure Grant from us A's fans?!? This is the worst possible news for atheists, such as me, who have to face the prospect of one of our top prospects whiling away the hours teaching people about the Easter Bunny's best friend. At least the Easter Bunny brings candy.
I don't know the rules, but... what's to stop any major league team from signing any free agent to a minor league deal, just to avoid losing the draft pick? Why not sign Jason Bay to a $60 million, 4 year "minor league" deal?
This is an easy fix: expand rosters to 27 players and schedule each team for 8 double headers. Everybody wins.
Catcher in the spy?
The real victims of this crime are the fans, who have to hear about such issues ad nauseum.
The solution to EVERYTHING in this entire debate is contained on this very page. Clearly we must clone 3000 McGwires, 3000 Clemenses, and 3000 Bondses. 1000 of each subject shall be brought up with a strictly controlled doping regimen, 1000 of each shall be force fed cocaine and greenies, and the other 1000 shall proceed cleanly forward. The winner will be the line of descendants with the largest aggregate salary.
Modern ethics and morality are too far behind scientific advancement to save us from repetitive BS and the general stupidity of HOF voters.
I think an inning is too long to use as the independent variable. If you're controlling for the effect of the pitcher being winded after running around all over the place, it would make sense to see how many hitters it takes for him to catch his breath. It seems reasonable to suggest that the first hitter Zambrano faced in your example would be the one most likely to benefit from any significant fatigue effects.
"I'm starting to think that the new market inefficiency is having the phone numbers of general managers in the NL East."
This is my new all-time favorite quote
What would happen if a player's contract expired, but he never filed for free agency?
I'd rather have 7 WARP in one season from one player versus the same WARP from two players over two seasons.
This is a test of my profile settings. Apologies.
Somebody needs to re-revive the spare reliever in the outfield ploy. However, I'd think 1B would be a better position to swap the spare reliever into. How awesome could it be to go LOOGY-ROOGY-LOOGY-ROOGY and only burn through two pitchers? No one thinks outside the box anymore.
And as a fan of the game it's impossible not to feel absolutely cheated out of a potentially epic at bat.
You have to pinch hit Thome for Martin in that situation. Absolutely have to. You can't wait for Blade because you can't take the chance that your soft hitting catcher hits into a double play, which he did more than all but 29 other players this season. If Thome is not on the roster for this exact situation, then why roster him at all for the postseason? He's weak for his career against lefties, but at least put him in and force Manuel to burn Eyre, and possibly Lidge, early. He's an HOF against righties, and better against lefties than Martin is against righties, so put the man in!
2009 Contact % = 72.5% ? Or did hitters really swing at 24% fewer pitches?
Hopefully they can rely on Verlander next year. The dude threw 498 pitches more than the #2 and racked up nearly 3x as many pitcher abuse points as #2. I believe Timmy the Freak Linceum was #2 on both.
How significant is a 0.7% walk rate differential? Assuming 40 PA/G (my est.) with a 33% chance of a runner scoring (my est., but seems high), this rough math works out to 15 runs a year, or 1.5 wins. Is that an accurate assessment?
I look at those numbers and see a guy who is refining his stroke at the MLB level. Check his K/BB rate this year. He's gone from 85/45 to 43/45. For me, just as my own rule of thumb, this is exactly the type of performance that I look for to indicate that a player has started to "get it." I've never been a fan of Loney, and the lack of power is troubling, but I could see the guy turning into a solid .310/.380/.485 type of guy for the next few years, with a peak of maybe 28 HR at age 29.
"Nothing is posted until three... sometimes." Right. One day all season, and yesterday maybe nothing until 1:00. That's definitely worth getting up in arms about.
The last time I checked, chum was a term of endearment, akin to "friend" or "buddy," so I really don't know why you're offended. The next time that I find a question that I am qualified to answer, and which has been summarily ignored for nigh on 5 hours, I shall refrain from mollifying the espied ignorance. Good day to you, gender non-specific and emotively neutral humanoid.
Content shows up after 8 a.m. AKDT (12 pm EDT) every day except Sat. Today it seemed a bit delayed, but I believe our hostess with the mostest here plays a rather significant role in that regard, and being as she was laid by a food allergy (couldn't resist given the comments below. my apologies) and whatnot, a tad bit of slack is perhaps warranted there, chum.
I get paid WHILE compiling mounds of information of interest to myself. Not FOR.
It's too awesome that you get paid to do this. I too get paid for compiling all sorts of mounds of worthless information, but you actually get paid for it. Sweet.
The last thing the Giants need is a starting pitcher, yet they have an RH factor over 2? Was this chart based on the average 5th starter's stat line, or on precisely who Halladay would replace? Clearly either the comment is wrong, or this chart is way too loosey goosey for anything more than the most casual of uses.
Matt Holliday would have been a great candidate for this article.
Ummm, how is Jim Fregosi circa 1967 Hanley's #1 Pecota comparable? Angel Berroa circa 2003 seems like a better fit, LOL!!!!
-Yes, Ollie. He hasn't done well anywhere this year, but his contract is shorter and for less $. Throwing him in would deduct (prorated) about $29MM from the expected $40MM loss. Can the Mets afford to eat $12MM? Me thinks yes. Of course, this assumes that Ollie continues his precipitous decline and becomes entirely worthless/detrimental to his team's performance.
-Or swap him for Juan Pierre. Manny won't be around forever.
-Or swap him to Citi Group for naming rights to Rogers Centre. Canada Sucks Field, anyone?
How about dealing Wells and Halladay to the Amazin's for Perez and Martinez? The Jays still see a significant reduction in expenditures and get two players with upside, and the Mets get to replace a train wreck with the 2nd best pitcher in baseball and a serviceable outfielder. Much has been made in the past of Wells' home/road splits, but he has actually been better on the road the last two years. This year he's batting .172 at home and .330 on the road. The guy, I think, needs a change of scenery and can still be a solid $10MM a year outfielder. Is an offense depressing field the best place for Wells to land? Probably not. He strikes me as exactly the type of player who should be playing in Denver. Wells for Helton anyone?
Wasn't 2007 the year when Pujols hurt himself? He was on pace for 70 jacks, then missed some time. Point being, his short term performance was phenomenal, but his health was given priority over Gymfest.
Why isn't the fact that the NL has 4 1B-man getting more attention? How is it that you select three subs for Pujols? Tell me they're playing in an AL park this year and at least can rotate these guys into the DH slot.
A Dominican SS, asking for about $1.2MM, age concerns... hmm, how many prospects fit the bill...
Cool stuff. I'd like to see this as a percentage of possible and actual team wins, blown game percentage. The Nationals at 13 wins, would have a 5/18 or BG of 0.278, while the Brews would be at 5/36 or 0.139. Rates float my boat but bulk makes me sulk. Obviously I spent about 30 seconds assembling my numbers and assumed all blown games were losses, but you get the idea.
Matt Stairs spent his age 24 and 25 seasons slugging about 0.420 for AAA. He didn't really put anything together until the following year, after a trip to Japan, change of organizations, and a trip back to AA. This is a guy who has 69 homers in 2767 minor at bats. his career arc suddenly reminds me of two other Phils- Utley and Howard, HOF talents who took just a bit too long putting things together, or were otherwise condemned to MiLB drudgery.
What is the 100% difference he is talking about? The approximate shift in OBP between the two stat lines? For one, percent difference is not a good number to use, as it could have two different connotations. For another, Brian never seems to commit to writing a serious numbers piece versus a more casual editorial piece. Overall it is fair, but could stand to be considerably tightened up.
And these guys clearly haven't been facing my Liriano-Kazmir-Nolasco-Randy Johnson rotation.
How many of these guys are hitting with the wonky new maple bats?
All you need is a tandem tag team where you start a reliever on 1B and whenever a guy gets on base you send Javy to 1st and let the other guy get out of the jam.
Attempting to limit the flexibilty of teams to dispose of their roster slots as they please would be futile. No team would agree to a forced distribution of rostered players.
I do like where JDseal is going, though. My thought is have your relief guys practice with a first baseman's glove. Bring in the LOOGY and shift your ROOGY over to 1B to cover for your lead gloved masher, swap back and forth as the matchups indicate, then swing in your 1B defensive specialist after you're done micro managing.
I expect most teams would be well served to drop a marginal pitcher or two in favor of runs prevented/ runs scored via glove man or masher. Do you think all those old guys out there waiting for a phone call- Piazza, Thomas, Bonds, etc.- wouldn't be a better pinch hitter than your backup catcher? I sure as shooting say they would be better.
Okay, so what's the longest streak without allowing an earned run? Surely the "scoreless innings" mark has no relevance in this era of sabermetrics. Much like a pitcher has no control over his offense or his bullpen when striving for a W, a pitcher should not be dinged for a bad defense as well.
I gots to know: How many players have 132 victories and 66 or fewer losses?
Give the man an IQ test! No, but seriously, is one massive part of intelligence not the ability to learn from one's mistakes? The man must certainly have been told of the potential for serious damage he creates with his old school methods.
Pitcher abuse is like global warming. Yes, there are pitchers you can point to whose arms can withstand any demand placed upon them, but an examination of the trend clearly shows the consequences to those whose minds are open.
I like how you refer to Dusty's answer (re: Harang and 114 pitches)as "thoughtful" rather than rational or intelligent. Classy. I can't wait to get home and listen to the conversation. Dusty inspires curiosity, in the way that car accidents and burning buildings do. The danger is titillating.
One imagines rescuing the Reds' pitchers from DB. As I charged into the bullpen with my lasso, six-shooter, and garlic necklace, would I be eaten? Would my arm fall off? Would I be slapped to death by Corey Patterson, Willy Taveras, and Juan Pierre?
Is the stat line from Nick Johnson accurate? 0.220 avg with 0.415 OBP is just sick.
Don't forget about the juice
Oh man does this float my boat. So many theories can be explored through this blooming flower of a database.
Does BP have the capability to reprogram the Google satellite network to record play by play for college games?
I was just a bit off. Here is an interesting read on the subject of lineup importance. I'm sure BP has done the same work, but Google found this one first:
Lineup order does have an effect, albeit a smaller one than might be imagined. Basically you want Rickey Henderson batting leadoff and Albert Pujols batting second. The effect is to generate a few more at bats for your studs over the course of the season, putting a few more runners on, and consequently scoring and winning more often.
I'd like to see MLB change the rules for the DH so that it would be possible to DH for anyone you pleased. Got a great fielding/ salami bat shortstop and a slugging pitcher with a mean sinkerball? Let the pitcher hit and keep Bocock away from the plate.
Could there be a more perfect backup for Chavez, Crosby, and maybe Ellis than Nomar? Imagine the four playing together, with Nomar at 1B. What\'s the over-under on balls in play before one of them went down with an injury? 5? 7? That would easily be the most brittle infield of all time.
We have evidence that at one time dinosaurs walked the earth, but there is no evidence that dinosaurs are walking the earth today.
Does a Mission have to be completed by a certain age? Surely \"God\" would understand if a fella wanted to postpone two years of knocking on people\'s doors in favor of a legitimate shot at a big league career. Whatever \"Word\" Iorg was trying to spread could have been as effectively transmitted by sportscasters for 20 years, mentioning three times a game his looming post-retirement gray-hair tromp through the Sudan, but what do I know.
If Dusty Baker is my manager and I have an ounce of VORP, I\'m demanding a trade. You\'ve got to wonder if a collective shiver went through the locker room at the advent of Dusty in Cincy.
Is Roger Kieschnick related to Brooks Kieschnick?
Better to get them to move while they\'re young and pliable, rather than old and curmudgeonly (I\'m looking at you, Michael Young, with my self-righteous stinkeye).
The Crime Dog to the HOF? At first blush he appears better than Cepeda, Perez, and Murray, while roughly equivalent to Harmon Killebrew with less HR pop, but far more 2Bs and a better (as in lined with somewhat less lead) glove. My vote is for first ballot. The Crime Dog took a bite out of a lot pitcher\'s ERAs while anchoring some great teams throughout the \'90s.
Bring on the detailed Michael Young Player Profile/ Analysis article!!! Please oh please oh please
And here I was hoping Dusty Baker had returned to Wrigley in a gallant effort to save Rich Harden from salvaging any sort of career.
Recently? The Dodgers and Reds (Dusty \"PAP\" Baker) are playing winter ball at Wrigley?
Funny that powerless, walk averse Juan Pierre is the most Rickey-esque guy in Rickey\'s eyes. I would have said Han-Ram, but if you\'re working for the Dodgers I guess you have to profess loyalty.
I really enjoyed the fact that you distinguished between \"insure\" and \"ensure.\" To me, to not make that distinction is lazy writing, even if there is some common perception that the two are interchangeable. Until I can buy ensurance for my automobele, I will not cease to attack this despicable lapse in modern grammatical diligence. The funny thing about this post it that I\'m not kidding, just really bored at work.
Give Loria a break, guys, Jeezum Cripes. Obviously he\'s scrimping and saving for his own stadium. If I can buy slightly irregular Hanes at TJ Maxx for $3.00, when Fruit of the Loom at Wal Mart is $4.50, I\'m driving that extra 60 miles to get to TJ Maxx every time.
Adopt firejoemorgan.com... still grieving over its demise.
That\'s the craziest thing I\'ve ever seen! I wouldn\'t let t-ballers play on that turf. I hope the fence is 60ft tall.
What\'s interesting to me is that Jeter\'s RAA is at -11 (heavily skewed by -18 in 2008) in the 4 years since A-Rod took over 3B. In the 4 years prior to A-Rod, Jeter\'s RAA was -82. So, using no analysis whatsoever, clearly A-Rod has saved the Yanks from yielding 71 runs in that span, or almost 18 runs a year. This is worth, what, roughly 4 wins anually?
Random question: if Jeter had stepped over to 3B when A-Rod arrived, allowing A-Rod to man SS, what benefit would defensive projections, by season, extrapolate to? That is, how many Earnies has Jeter cost the pitching staff over the years that might otherwise have been gobbled up by the superior performer that is and has always been A-Rod?
Thanks for bringing Brent Gates back to mind. Now I have visions of Steve Ontiveros, Eric Plunk, and Ozzie Canseco dancing in my head.
No kidding. Saying Bay didn\'t swing was a horrible call. Perhaps the call on Drew was payback for that one being missed.
That\'s strange... I seem to have merged in my memory the 7th inning of Game 2 and the 8th inning of game 5, 2000 playoffs. Apologies. Matt Stairs is still clutch after all these years.
Matt Stairs has that certain unquantifiable clutchness that A-Rod lacks. I\'ll always remember the Art Howe led A\'s v Torre Yanks playoff series when, bases loaded, no one out, Ben Grieve and then a righty due up. Stairs standing in the dugout, swinging his bat, ready to pinch hit.
Me: Please, Art, please pinch hit Stairs for the human double play (AKA Ben Grieve) and not for the guy after him.
Art: Book say lefty hit righty. Me reads book. Me follow book.
Grieve: Just gotta wait for my pitch to hit... there\'s one I can dribble to 2B... SWEET groundout BG! Biggity Bennzizzle!
Stairs cleans up the scraps with a double crushed to RF.
We have a vice presidential candidate who believes in creationism. 1000, 2000, and yes even 4000 year old beliefs and traditions permeate our society. Just think of it as stoning a sinner, rather than a crucifixion or a burning on the stake.
EE has been forecast for a breakout season how many years in a row? Seems like forever. I think he is more similar to Cain, in that you think he should be awesome, but he somehow never evades mediocrity. If you are going to deal a K-Master LHP, and a young one at that, you need something with more upside than an EE. Now, Cain for Encarnacion almost sounds fair. I\'m curious how BP metrics perceive the value of each.
Drew\'s throw was on target when it left his hand. The problem was the impressive screwball action on the thing. For all the talk of JD\'s poor setup and whatnot, Perez is out if that ball is just thrown straight. By the time it bounces next to Kotsay, the ball clearly does not have a chance. Perhaps a more experienced 1B than Kotsay would have cut that thing off and turned for a good solid chuck.
\"Hustle Trax\" should be the next FOX game enhancing innovation.
\"Manny only broke from the box at 6.7 m/s^2 on that one, Tim. He\'s consistently in the bottom 10% of the league in the Percentage of Plays Hustled Upon. The simulation shows he\'s capable of a ten step acceleration of at least 24.9 m/s^2. And just look at his Hustle Percentage Per Inning Per Contract Dollar. Pathetic! Sooner or later the Dodgers will realize they should have traded for real gritsters like Eckstein and Erstad instead of Ramirez and Blake.\"
Did anyone else feel, as I did, that Furcal\'s overthrow on the Victorino play was more about back pain than Victorino\'s speed? McCarver went on and on about SV\'s speed, but an accurate throw would have had him by about five steps. Same goes for the Ruiz play the next inning. Furcal, deep in the hole, a catcher running, misfired badly again, with a weak and inaccurate toss.
Speaking of LOOGYs, here\'s a random idea for optimal LOOGY usage: get your LOOGY some fielding practice at first base. In a lineup of LRL or LLRL or similar, start the inning with a LOOGY, drop him over to 1B and bring in a ROOGY. After the RHB, bring back the LOOGY and swap in your backup 1B. Ideally you could get your ROOGY some reps at 1B, too, for optimal flexibility. First base is often a black hole defensively, anyhow, and a pitcher won\'t stiffen up too badly in the span of a batter or two, so where does this plan fail?
It speaks to the sad state of baseball management that the five day rotation is considered innovative. I\'d be interested in learning the statistical benefit of such a rotation over the course of a season. How much benefit is derived from axing the fifth starter every other turn, as seems would be the outcome of that rotation? I would think 2-3 wins minimum, depending on the relative strength of the front end/weakness of the back end. I smell a fascinating BP article a-brewing!
Cheesy as yours, but I like to see my ID in print: Weaver gives a whole new meaning to getting benched.