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mmontice
36 comments | 12 total rating | 0.33 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/39994
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

This writeup makes a few of the others look like the Cliff Notes versions.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 3

And this is exactly why trading Castro is so difficult. Somehow his real value continues to be artificially dampened. The guy is only 24, a real good player with an established track record, and is signed to a super reasonable long-term contract.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 1

I was just throwing a fun elbow. I understand the rules. They are fair. Good stuff nevertheless.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 1

Boo, now I'll always wonder who BP thinks the Cubs will take.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 1

With Hoffman busto for the year, this would have been a perfect opportunity to redo the top 10. Fedde certainly has been passed, where he wouldn't have before.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Are pictures 9 and 10 artist renditions of those players? They don't look real.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

At 19, it's easy to forget just how young Candelario is for the Midwest League. He could repeat it for 2 more years and still be young. He's not setting anything on fire, but he has a really nice approach at the plate (12% BB rate and 15% K rate), the power is starting to develop (especially as the year has worn on) and from I've read, his defense at 3B is at least going in the right direction.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 3

Sounds like Walding actually needs to make adjustments going backward (I'll be here all week).

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: -2

Big markets are going to get more coverage, especially by ESPN, and especially 100x for LA, NY and BOS by ESPN. It sucks, but it's just the way it is. Being a Cubs fan, I have noticed that there are long stretches where Cubs prospects don't appear on minor league updates (the past week or so not withstanding). Could be coincidence, could be circumstantial, could be an error in my judgement (I am not running a statistical analysis here). I wouldn't find this odd if the Cubs had a poor farm system, however, given that the Cubs have a top 5 farm system in the vast majority of (if not all) major publications, I do find it surprising that sometimes long stretches pass (I think I counted over a week recently) with no Cubs making the good parts of these lists (when Baez has a high K game, he usually gets a crap call out). Again, this is just me using the eye test, and I have not kept an eye out for other teams. On a side not, as for Arrieta, I believe this is a minor league update used to report the happenings across the minor leagues, not necessarily a "prospect" update. I think the moniker "Pitching Prospect of the Day" is just being used for simplicity. It could just as easily read "Minor League Pitching Performance of the Day". Then again, I could be wrong about this whole paragraph.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Your man crush on Sano is utterly unparalleled. I'm not sure more than 1-2 days go by without you doting on him. If trapper keepers were still popular, you'd have his name written all over it with many hearts around it. You really should have a separate daily post, where you can talk about all things Miguel Sano, including his personal life. I kid, the dude is a stud. Wish he was in the Cubs farm system.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: -15

Then I guess we should assume he's not going to sign. Sucks. Ha!

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

"Only Billy Butler logged more than 500 PAs (591) this year as a DH." While true, if not for injury, David Ortiz would have fit that bill. Doesn't mean you're not right, but Ortiz is another true DH. Also, not saying Vogelbach can become Ortiz. Just pointing out that he's a true DH.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Regarding Concepcion, a few reports have stated that he's apparently not working with his full arsenal (focusing on developing his fastball), and that if he was, he'd be performing much better. Feel free to judge the validity of that statement.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

It feels like the Diamondbacks have more young, high-end pitching prospects than other whole divisions put together.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Many are willing to cut him some age slack due to his "late" start in baseball.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 2

It's more about how impressive and extensive his body of work -- verbally, socially, artistically, etc -- was in such a short amount of time, rather than actually liking the material itself. He accomplished pretty much everything in a span of about 6 years. I am also extremely impressed by how well he understood how the world worked and the motivations behind people at such a young age. Most notably the fashion with which he interacted with and manipulated large audiences at such a young age still perplexes me. I also don't know anyone that was taking in and understanding the literature he did at such a young age. His self-made style and personality were also quite profound and continue to influence and resonate very strongly in modern times. All that said, his flaws (and there were lots of them) help people forget or miss just how impressive of a force he was over such a short period of time. And the Doors as a bnad are incredible. Always happy to find another member of that club.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Jim Morrison was undoubtedly brilliant.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: -1

Interesting that you think Lindor is that much better than Javier Baez, especially considering neither have really had any professional experience thus far, and were back-to-back picks in a draft. Guess the Indians really lucked out here.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: -2

Just because you don't take home the 9 at the bar (Epstein), doesn't mean you aren't happy taking home the 8 or 8.5 at the bar (other candidates). I get what the Red Sox are doing, and appreciate the tactic. It's called anchoring, which means you ask for the moon knowing that it can lead you to get more than you would expect if you had initially asked for something reasonable. It can also ruin negotiations by pissing off the other party into walking away. Its a bit of a gamble. Either way, it doesn't mean you are negotiating from a point of leverage.

Oct 17, 2011 11:39 AM on The Epstein Holdup
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: -3

Yep, for sure. If one side was calling all the shots, I would venture to guess a deal would have been made much sooner.

Oct 17, 2011 11:20 AM on The Epstein Holdup
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: -3

Not true. Please see above It will be very hard for a company to ask for a premium price on an asset that it can no longer use. Sure, you can always be a hero and ask for the moon, but you run the risk of getting nothing and having to continue to pay for an asset that is now worthless and unusable to you. The Cubs also run the risk of not getting what they want, and having to move to the next best alternative. Not ideal for them either. So what you have, at least in my opinion, is a pretty even situation.

Oct 17, 2011 11:12 AM on The Epstein Holdup
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 4

Doesn't an asset lose value value for the owner when it is no longer useful? So let's say I retool a factory and have a piece of equipment that while now useless to me, can be very useful in another factory, so I put it on the market for sale. Can I really try to charge a steep price for it if that asset will otherwise remain unused and take up valuable space in my factory (eg Epstein's salary that can be used elsewhere)? I guess that's how I see it.

Oct 17, 2011 11:07 AM on The Epstein Holdup
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 2

I'll take a guy that can do 90-95% as good of a job and not give up top prospects to get him. That's my leverage if I'm the Cubs. Also, regardless of Red Sox riches, $8M is a lot to eat on a GM.

Oct 17, 2011 10:10 AM on The Epstein Holdup
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 12

I don't see how the Red Sox have leverage. What are they going to do, bring Epstein back, demote Cherrington and have a terribly awkward season with all parties acting like nothing happened, especially between Lucchino and Epstein? Or if the awkwardness is too much to bear, are the Red Sox going to pay Epstein $8M (or whatever it is) to hang out on a beach for the next year? There just seems to be too many bridges burned for the Red Sox to clearly have leverage.

Oct 17, 2011 9:24 AM on The Epstein Holdup
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Super Utility and injury filler in the mold of DeRosa when he was at this prime. He can get 400-450+ ABs in this scenario (Chipper alone will guarantee him about 30-40 starts at 3B). That's not too shabby at all, and provides huge roster flexibility value. Or trade him.

Sep 29, 2011 4:17 PM on Atlanta Braves
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 5

How do you pencil Minor over Beachy into the 2012 rotation? If anything Lowe has to be banished to a bullpen role (he's done it in the past)or traded away with some eaten salary.

Sep 29, 2011 12:35 PM on Atlanta Braves
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 2

I think your first problem is arguing with Cubs fans on Facebook. Your second problem is assuming the ones you do argue with on Facebook (most likely teenagers and college students) know what they are talking about. There are delusional and over-optimistic fans in every fanbase. The trick is to ignore them.

Sep 14, 2011 8:45 AM on Chicago Cubs
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 1

I know you are already pretty heavily down on Vitters, but seeing that he turned 22 three days ago, most people would say that he spent the majority of the season at 21. I'm not saying the guy has completely righted the ship, but its not inconceivable that he makes the majors next year while still 22. Easy to spin either way.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 1

If Vitters can end the year ~.300/.335/.450, not sure I would say its for sure "enough", but its a solid step in the right direction, and that I will take after last year's debacle. Another positive is that, even though he's now spent more than a full year at AA, he will have played the vast majority of this season as a 21 year old, so he's still pretty young. On the other hand, with the continued lack of walks, plate discipline still remains a serious red flag.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

Regarding Jackson: I'll take 20/20, solid defense in CF or LF, a .275 average and a .370-380 OBP all day. No issues there with me.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

The Cubs must have one of the most stale minor league systems. I don't think they have had a notable performance on this blog since early June. And to think, the major league team is most likely the worse team in baseball. Who has the worst combined overall system (majors and minors), the Cubs or the Astros?

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

It's not like that team is going anywhere this year, so even if they think he doesn't have what it takes to make it in the big leagues long term, why not call him up June 1st and keep your fingers crossed? As mentioned by Wade, its not like he can do any worse than Branyan and Miranda have so far this year. Also, if they are hoping Branyan can turn it around so they can trade him for 1-2 C-Level prospects and save some bread, his long history of up and (mostly) down years says that might never happen.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

If Brett Jackson even keeps up at 75% of his current pace, I have a feeling he will move quicker. Probably nothing before June, but I don't see the point in letting him marinate in AA more than a few months tops if this type of performance continues. Whether he gets moved to AAA or straight to the MLB (post May), largely depends on how the MLB club is performing and whether the OF is still too full to accommodate another body.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

This trade really only makes sense to me if Garza is extended a few extra years past arbitration at a team friendly deal, as after this year, his salary really won't be cheap enough to deem him more than slightly team friendly. After that year, he will be close to market rate. However, I see two problems I see with extending Garza: a) who knows how well he will pitch at Wrigley and overall given a few of his shaky peripheral stats and b) he looks like he throws very hard, which could take its toll over time and lead to a serious injury. Either way, both points make it more risky to give him that long term deal. Conclusion: I honestly don't know. Rickets have talked up big time the idea of building through the minor leagues, so while Garza is under team control for a few more years, and is therefore not a one year rental, this deal is very contradictory to that claim. So while Garza may do just fine for the Cubs and even thrive, the deal does reek of some deep-seeded desperation to increase revenue this year, yet is being spun by management as the best case scenario for the Cubs, both short-term and over the long-haul.

Jan 11, 2011 1:54 PM on An Honest Exchange?
 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

You listed Archer as 3rd or 4th starter in your perfect world projection this past offseason? Has that changed with this year's effort? Although his control still needs to improve, it seems like he is getting better as he moves through the system.

 
mmontice
(39994)
Comment rating: 0

The fact that Harden is projected to throw about 100 more innings than Gallardo ruins makes me hesitant to take any of the other projections on this post as seriously as I should. Harden is Mr. Glass, currenlty has a tear in his shoulder and the Cubs management has already made it public that they hope he can make 25 starts this year. At 6 innings a start, about average for Harden, that would total 150 IP. At 6 IP per start, the above IP estimate would suggest he makes 30 starts. A feat he has only accomplished once, in 2004. Additionally, although I am well aware of Gallardo's time missed last year, nothing was due to arm troubles. A knee scope forced him to miss most of April, and than Reed Johnson speared him in the other knee to effectively end the regular season for him. And after all that, he came back and pitched in the playoffs.