CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57712">Matt Wieters</a></span> is as much of a disappointment as Delmon or Jeffries, isn't he?
"can march confidently into the postseason" they have a 30% chance of missing altogether?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49769">Billy Rowell</a></span> should have created a bias against lazy entitled dbags, not NJ hitters. Oh well.
It wouldn't surprise me if Pearce starts against righties some. He's been as good as Pedro vs. righties - more <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>, less <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a>, but perhaps a little more valuable, all in.
I don't think I've ever liked a manager as much as I like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17635">Buck Showalter</a></span>. He also had great comments last year, when there was so much chaos around the stadium following the protests, and the rioting that followed.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=27600">Boog Powell</a></span>, by comparison, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ROE" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ROE'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ROE</span></a>'d 60 times in his career, in about 3/4 the at bats of Brock. So, he ROE's at about half of Brock's rate.
Just for kicks - Lou Brock <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ROE" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ROE'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ROE</span></a>'d 163 times in his career, including 19 times in 1974, the same year he stole 118 bases.
So his "new" <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> would be .395 vs .368 that year.
Career OBP goes from .343 to .359, with lgAvg going from .330 to ??? over his career.
Tillman has also seen much better fastball results this year. I wonder whether there's a story there?
I agree wholeheartedly. I guess the O's look at him and see a reliable ground ball guy, and want to put him in front of their great IF defense. But, that's a bargain hunting strategy and while Gallardo may be OK (probably not) he's definitely not a bargain. I hate these kinds of contracts, where everything has to go right for them to make sense.
It's possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was another offer out there in the ballpark of this one. We'll never know for sure.
well, Schoop doesn't run well, he's more of a fireplug that happened to grow over six feet. He looks more like a linebacker than a 2B, but he's got good instincts and a great arm. As he gets older, I wonder if he wouldn't be the optimal 3B, with Manny moving to SS. Depends on what you can get at 2B/3B I guess.
I saw him live a few times, hard to believe he was a rookie, really. So many deep counts, so much power, so many walks...and so many strikeouts.
I think you might need to era-adjust the K rate, don't you think? K+ ? I mean, the league strikes out at about a 20% rate now. Reggie's rookie year 1968, year of the pitcher, he struck out at a 28% rate, but league average was 16%. In 1982, Reggie led the league again with 156Ks (25%) but the league rate had fallen down to 12.5%.
Well, exactly. And, it's a similar story - the Cubs let him go back to his old delivery, more or less.
The bullish case for the Orioles is that they've won the lawsuits around MASN and Angelos will now loosen the purse strings, because he has more certainty about what his revenues will look like.
But, probably not.
Is there a single Orioles pitcher who has exceeded expectations over the past four seasons (Peterson's tenure). It's been disastrous, and though Peterson can't be solely blamed, it's hard to see how he can still be employed.
(fingers in ears) NANANANANANA I CAN'T HEAR YOU
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70753">Dylan Bundy</a></span> is going to start for the Orioles this year, and he's going to be good. SHUT UP
any hope of Difo coming up and pushing Desmond's collapse to the bench?
It's just like the guys who try to do too much, except the complete opposite, but with the exact same results.
could be Baltimore, too. Old school scouting & development organization.
I am also the proud owner of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104180">Gleyber Torres</a></span> in my keeper league. I can only laugh and blame myself, though.
I know he's only in High-A, but what is a reasonable timeline for Giolito? September 2016? sooner?
that's a GREAT Jeter line.
As the Orioles have shown, there's big team upside to average players replacing sub-replacement-level dreck.
I want a Yahtzee in the box score: 5AB, 5H, 5R, 5RBI and not one of those fancy new-fangled boxscores with LOB in it, because that doesn't work.
There are only five of these, and they all happen to be from really good players -
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=27200">Larry Parrish</a></span> (with 3HR)
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=22323">Steve Garvey</a></span> 2 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Al+Simmons">Al Simmons</a></span> 2 HR
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=28806">Earl Sheely</a></span> a 20-15 game, so every run counted
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=21751">Bibb Falk</a></span> (also a walk, so his 6PA is a little off-putting.)
There are 158 "3" yahtzees (mostly with a few walks added in), also 28 "4" yahtzees, and no 6 yahtzees.
I got a foul groundball once, as a kid at the railing down the 3B line at Yankee Stadium post-rain delay. Sweet memory.
More recently, I was in the top row of the lower section behind home plate with my wife. We'd gotten a babysitter and this was to be the beginning of our night out, just us.
Someone nicked a pitch just enough for the ball to get over the screen and topspin down toward us, the seams hissing as it came. I manfully put my bare hands in front of this missile, but it ticked off of the hands of the person in the row in front of us. I overreacted and whiffed completely and it struck my wife flush on the knee THWACK like in a comic book. End of date. The people at the park were very nice and gave us all the icepacks we could ask for. Didn't get the ball, though.
wow, I never wanted to be a Congressman so badly.
any thoughts on stashing Orlando Arcia SS, <span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=MIL" target="blank">Milwaukee Brewers</a></span>.
Well, in fairness, if the Orioles kept Eddie Rodriguez, he'd suck and be hurt.
yeah, think about how much more they'd be the best front office story in the AL if he'd made better/luckier choices with those picks!
Could the Orioles' minor league system get any more dismal?
though, you know LeMahieu just had a hot April (.968 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a>) and a terrible May (.536 OPS) and has a lousy track record at the plate. So, he's not the future.
eh, because I'm an idiot.
thanks. I own Story...any thought on when he might see the majors? Any chance they use him to fill their dismal 2B spot, or am I waiting on something to happen with Tulo?
Oh, I see! He's hitting .500 (14/28) and slugging infinity against the Red Sox this year. And 5-27 with a HR and 2B otherwise.
Jimmy Paredes hit .309 over that stretch, and slugged ~.640. and collected his one walk! Stop h8ing! :)
Looks like great work, I'm excited to dig in. I'm not thrilled with the choice of name here, we've got enough moralizing. And besides, like Clint Eastwood told us in Unforgiven, "Deserve's got nothing to do with it."
Jimmy Paredes is a better hitter than you seem to think! He's just a bit of a tweener - not enough power to be a DH, or even a corner OF, and seems to be a terrible defender. But he can hit, he's hit everywhere except his two atrocious partial major league seasons in Houston.
well, I think part of the reason it doesn't feel like there's a 7/11 chance of recovering his past glory is that a bat-first corner OF with an OPS + of ~110 is not a very good player. It's Brett Gardner without the speed or defense. So I see only 4/11 as positive outcomes.
It's all the same thing - the projection, median, upside & downside - and it's all mind-blowingly impressive.
wow, big news! Congratulations!
BTW, the Jim Walsh link just leads back to the BP front page. Was there something else you wanted to put there?
The Orioles didn't win the division in 2012.
So, you're on BP for fantasy content? Not all of us are, you know.
wow, that is not what I expected for Josh Hart, given the constant refrain of him being a terrific athlete with a long way to go on the skills side.
e.g., "The former first-round pick’s first full season of pro ball was fairly underwhelming and received mixed reviews, with the raw athleticism still having a ways to go to translate into polished baseball skills."
The Orioles are used to having steady white old shortstops (Bordick, Ripken - both of whom are still frequently around the team). I am not mocking them, but they probably are more comfortable signing Hardy through age 35 than other teams might be, and probably more comfortable than they should be given that Hardy's never been durable, unlike those other two.
As an O's fan, I have been afraid of this matchup all through the second half of the season. The O's strikeout a ton and hit HRs, not putting pressure on a poor defense. The Tigers' bullpen is bad, but starters rarely have pitch count problems against the free-swinging Orioles.
I'm psyched to see them overcome these issues!
why do you hate ice cream?
Nihilists! F*** me. I mean, say what you want about the tenets of Joe Morganism, therealn0d, at least it's an ethos.
This will not stand, ya know, this aggression will not stand, man.
It is so odd...PECOTA had them at 78 wins, pretty much par for the course from the good preseason analyses, and the team has mostly lost talent since then.
Is the entire analytic community just going to shrug, for the third year in a row? It seems that it is.
haha, awesome, I look forward to seeing it. I wonder how much of a head start I'd have to get on Billy Hamilton to beat him to home plate....
very interesting, thanks. I see that these are all white players - was that self selection? i.e., did the other players decline to talk about it?
I wonder whether you'd see a broader set of values in a more diverse sample of players...what do you think?
The Orioles minor league development of pitchers has to be called into question.
They've really only got Tillman to point to as a success. Gausman upon arriving in the bigs didn't seem to be any better than they day they drafted him, but he's finding his way at the big league level. Everyone else in the majors (Gonzalez, Norris, Ubaldo, Chen) was acquired major-league ready.
The list of failures is pretty long, even accounting for TINSTAAP: Matusz, Britton, Arrietta, Bridwell, Hobgood, Erbe (who probably shouldn't have been drafted).
In what way did he seem to be "...disinterested in participating in the actual contest?"
or, "Why we love the Giants' broadcasters, and some others."
Something weird in that play, Norris' single. The SS gets a terrible break on the ball, and Balfour is pissed. Maybe pissed about the shift that has the SS so far over than the 8-hopper makes it through, or maybe unhappy with the SS's play?
pretty remarkable to see the Blue Jays WS probabilities fall by 25% for standing still.
1.8 is (was) the median case, right? Maybe not median, I'm not sure the distribution of outcomes. But anyway, there's a significant chance he exceeds that 1.8 and a small chance he exceeds it by a lot. Equally, there's a significant chance he underperforms it (like he is now).
assumes you're going to replay the game. Or that you have non-economic motivations, which is fine.
I don't think it's accurate to say that Howard is a zero and getting even a nickel of help paying his contract is a positive outcome. There's a chance - 10%? 20%? - that he posts a positive WAR over the remaining 2.5 years (assuming buyout instead of year 3).
Nothing could make the extension a good one, but that doesn't mean that trading him for a million dollars is a good idea.
"Sometimes we need to overlook the tools...," who are you and what have you done with the BP prospect team?
Bundy, the description of the changeup doesn't seem to justify a 50 grade, does it? Not that I care about his grades, I just want to understand - are you not as negative on the current CH as I thought reading the report?
Trading Troy Tulowitzki to the Twins Triggers Total Triumph
wait, why are the bushes fecally-encrusted?
this thing is all over the internets, but it's not so much a good fake as a terrible baserunning play.
It seemed to me that Arrieta's mechanical problems were worse from the stretch, which helped create those awful strand rates. OPS with men on base in 2012 is was 150 points worse than with the bases empty, and in his Orioles portion of 2013, it was 200 points worse.
In 2011 it wasn't as bad, and in 2010 he actually pitched much better with men on. So, probably I'm making something out of nothing. But it did seem like his work from the stretch was particularly bad, I wonder how one separates that from just pitching badly when things are going badly (which puts you in the stretch more often.)
I always liked him; it is bittersweet to see him succeed elsewhere.
The Orioles should trade for Headley or Seth Smith....someone who takes a pitch every now and again.
It does seem like it would be nuts to tinker with a guy you draft in Round 1.
Do guys who get drafted in lower rounds ever get re-engineered completely? Do teams ever draft a pitcher thinking "he's a smart kid and a great athlete, but I want to change every single thing about his delivery."
I don't think so. He was pissed and tore off his helmet and threw it to the ground before his butt hit the turf. I don't know what he was pissed about, but it wasn't the falling that set him off, it was the tag or something that happened right at that moment.
You'd think they'd at least promote Bryant to AAA ball. Same with Butler, if they're not going to take him to Colorado. It becomes a farce otherwise.
sort of odd that "No player has made fewer Likely (60 to 90 percent) plays than Hill." Does that suggest that plays that might belong in this category are misclassified into one of the other categories?
What's the point of leaving a guy like Kris Bryant (or Eddie Butler, or a number of others) at AA, when they're demolishing the level? If they don't want to put them in the majors now, why wouldn't they promote to AAA at least?
what, no Brien Taylor?
This is great back & forth, thanks.
It will be interesting to see how much HH improves. He's quite advanced for his age, obviously, but does that just mean he's already close to getting the most out of his talent? Or that he'll continue to develop and end up even further ahead of same-age players. As an O's fan, it will be fun to watch.
please oh please let Joc get traded soon, but inside the NL.
What do you think an average MLB's hitter's vision is? Probably better than 20/20 I imagine?
No chance that Kris Bryant gets a call before September, huh?
that is an amazing Mike Trout stat. Just incredible.
"It takes sack to throw an 85 mph fastball to Barry Bonds.”
That's absolutely right. I love seeing these guys who aren't afraid to throw two or three changeups in a row to great hitters. Talk about trusting your stuff...
20, 10, 27
It'll be very hard to account for the effects on the defense, whether occasionally bunting (even foul!) "keeps them honest," or keeps them from using the most extreme shifts.
right. I think the claim is that readers shouldn't ignore stats, not that you guys are ignoring them.
Very interesting. I wonder what the change in FB whiff ratio was for Chris Davis, who made such a striking change in letting the ball travel, staying back, staying balanced...and is plenty big enough to hit the ball out of the park with this approach.
I don't know if Y/Y is the right way to measure it, since he really succeeded with this starting in August 2012, I think. But still would be neat to see.
PECOTA never fully believes the breakout season. The projection looks a lot more like his career averages than his career season.
well, like I said, he's a HOF'er. I would vote for him too.
I'm just correcting the comment I corrected.
I love this piece. #HASHTAG
In the second to last paragraph, "lead" should be "led."
It's not true that we don't have evidence that Bonds used PEDs, is it? He said that he didn't realize the details of the stuff he was using ("the cream" and "the clear"), but he admitted using them.
He's still a HOF'er, though.
It's more complicated than that. States & cities collect income taxes on both teams for games in their stadia. So, the pure benefit only comes through for the home games. And even then, residency matters and plenty of other stuff matters, too. Taxes are complicated.
It's kind of hard to find out which of your 4 DHs is going to hit best.
you might be underrating Maddux's peak, or not taking Koufax's short window of dominance into account.
Personally, I think Maddux is a whole lot better, and that it's not very close.
there is a mistake - a word or two missing, perhaps? - in the last line of Gausman's "The Year Ahead" section.
Would you (or Chris) have put Urrutia on the list, if he was still 25?
Flaherty was used as a platoon player (only 25PA last year vs L), so that extrapolation is even more misleading than most. :)
I like him a lot, it was sad to see him lose his spot to Brian Roberts, just when Flaherty had completed his first good major league month (June). He only got 10 PA in July.
well, Belanger hit .170 that year with, of course, no power. And he was 35, probably not as great a defender as he had been.
He played on some great teams, though, won a ring and two pennants. His teams were 1203-813 in his appearances. So, you can win with great D and no O at SS, too.
with what degree of certainty should they be able to do that? That's the rub.
Chris Davis's hit tool came around finally, which is why he's now really good. He used to not be very good, remember? It was, like, 18 months ago.
Another assumption, which is hard to quantify I think, is that it's equally easy to turn hits into outs in the pull field and the opposite field. I suspect that it's harder in the pull field, and that might be another increment in favor of this strategy.
was it in the fryer? Please say yes.
wow. Congrats to Jason and Mort. And congrats to you, Jason P. A heckuva validation of your hirings.
Urrutia's brief appearance in the majors was utterly disappointing. He showed good ball-to-bat-handle skills and not much else. It would be a big lift to the club if he were to emerge as a plus hitter.
I imagine his upside is Mark Grace-like?
hey, go do the work. If a guy has a 2-hit shutout through 18 batters, how does the third time through the lineup go?
He addresses this rather specifically in the text.
In any case, Verlander's career splits (all this data are easily available on bbref):
1st time through the order: .629 OPS
2nd time through the order: .638
3rd time through the order: .706
4th time through the order: .666, in 1/5th the sample size
This is really clearly presented and interesting, thanks. I commented on your wordpress about the Lester decision, and I'm happy to see your work here as well.
Bogaerts is the first Aruban to make MLB, excluding those signed by the Orioles in the 90s (Sidney Ponson and three guys you've never heard of.)
In the 5th paragraph, you subbed "Cardinals" for "Dodgers"
"The Cardinals scored their third run in the eighth when second-base sub Wong retrieved a bloop single by Hanley Ramirez and threw it to Pete Kozma at the second-base bag, where runner Mark Ellis had already arrived."
Jack McDowell, not Smoltz. But, yeah, Showalter did lots of dumb things with his bullpen all series, leaving poor Wetteland crying in the dugout in, I think, game 5.
I hope you have a sturdy couch.
the camera stops panning, that's why the angle of descent appears to change. I think.
game plan: hope he keeps it in the park and try to throw him out at second base. Got it. :)
long ago and brief were the days when there were good things to say about Billy Rowell. :(
there are also unmeasurable side-effects, like when Petey Prospect takes to Twitter to bitch about his steamed vegetables This causes Sergio Superprospect, who was a year behind at the same HS, to take a harder line in his bonus negotiations.
Now the program costs $3 million!
exuent is third person plural: "they exit."
At some point, they're going to have to successfully take a pitcher from draft through development, and major-league success. For now, not a single starter was drafted by the O's, and only Tillman spent any time in the O's minor league system. They've got Gausman, Bundy and Harvey in there now, and I hope they make it out alive.
Whether he's functionally a #1 or #2 or #3 starter will depend on what team he lands on, right? You can't grade up the Royals' or Orioles' present #1 starter to 70 just because he's the #1. Similarly, a 70 pitcher isn't an "ace." Call him a #2 or a weak #1 if you like.
Hopefully he reaches his full potential and he's still the third or fourth best starter on the Orioles, because Gausman, Bundy and someone else are all so incredibly good.
One other thing to note: he makes the sound fake when Hamels checks the runner. I assume it's opportunistic and that he might not do it when the pitcher is trying to concentrate. Pretty neat.
Zach, thanks for writing these, I've enjoyed it.
guys, if the numbers in the original article are incorrect, then so is the conclusion that they're " stripping assets, reducing costs and applying operating profit to pay down debt (or increase their equity) at a pace which is unusual for a sport franchise."
it's fun. Shows that it only takes one overpay to get the high side of value on a player. Huntington probably would have been murdered by his staff before the physicals if he made that deal.
It might be interesting. It probably ends any improvement in his fielding, however.
good thing the Orioles need a DH, like right now.
Glad to see you back...no apologies necessary to me - I love this piece and would hate to see it go. Thanks!
as a fellow O's fan, I am also interested in the answer! If it was a straight average of the actual wins and the H123 things, the O's would be 6th, I think?
The Angels ranking looks like a bug.
Yes, Minor League Update. Despite not knowing the name and not realizing that there were a bunch of AS Breaks going on, I love these articles. And that guy. Plus the other guys. And I liked the old guy too, who left to go work for that team.
This may not be the place to ask, but...what happened to the Minor League Games of ____ notes that used to appear daily?
which explains why he's still in that league...
But really, why is he still in that league?
Some pretty astonishing Orioles fail:
1998: 0 WAR, only two draftees signed and made the majors.
1999: about 50 WAR, mostly Bedard and Roberts
2000: pretty astonishing - none of their picks in rounds 1-31 made an appearance in MLB. The Round 32-33 picks did, and combined for a -1.2 WAR.
2001: 17 (Jim Johnson headlines)
2002: 0.6 (Adam Loewen, sadly, headlines the list)
2003: 24 (100% Markakis, the others net to zero)
2004: 3.5 (drafted Will Vanable and Jaime Garcia, but couldn't/didn't sign them)
2005: 7.0 (only two players remain in the majors, Reimold and David Hernandez)
2006: 0.0 (Zach Britton may some day put this one into positive territory)
I would guess that the reason there's a correlation is simpler - that batters are more likely to chase when they're behind in the count, and they're more likely to be behind in the count when good framers are catching.
Orioles comment leaves out Adam Jones somehow; I guess those guys are 3rd-5th among Orioles in VORP, not 2nd-4th. But, cool factoid anyway.
What is it that caps the upside of 20 yo Eduardo Rodriguez?
Urrutia, Puig, Cespedes....did any other Cuban emigres have 2 HR games yesterday?
I noticed that Delmonico's been in and out of the lineup - lingering concussion issues? Or something else?
Obviously, he mistook him for the _other_ Andrew Aplin (http://www.jefferson.edu/jmc/departments/cancer-biology/faculty_staff/faculty/aplin.html) who has written extensively about the cancer-causing rays that emanate from Diogenes' lamp.
Don't fear the reaper.
My son, a t-ball player, yesterday came out with this exchange:
"Foul Ball! Foul....Ball?"
"Yeah, He hit it, but it went backward. You have to the ball forward."
"Baseball is complicated."
(an hour later, mommy is home.)
"Mommy, baseball is complicated. You have to hit the ball when it's moving, and you have to hit it FORWARD!"
awesome stuff, kudos!
didn't realize he doesn't profile as an every day player, though it makes sense.
Thanks for the bit on Urrutia.
Does "may get time at 1B" mean that he's a terrible defensive OF, and he'll have to shift to 1B?
OK, I'm on board.
Is the last word of that header quote supposed to be "ballish?"
I admire this article, hope it gets widely read.
I love this bit (and I like Reynolds). I do wonder whether some middle school teacher somewhere will get an essay about the inspirational story of the blind guy in MLB.
does he use batting gloves?
the first and third SSC gifs are the same.
Thanks for this, cool article.
vs Seattle: 4-2
vs LAA 1-2
vs CLE 1-2
every other game has been vs a first or second place team: BOS (0-4), NYY (1-2), DET (0-4), TEX (1-2), OAK (0-6), Adds up to 2-18.
Thanks for these, always a fun read.
Has anyone on the BP team put eyes on Henry Urrutia? Just 12 games, but...so far so good. Curious what the scouting take is.
Ross Youngs is overshadowed by some great teammates on the 1920s Giants, but he was a terrific player - a 130 OPS+ and viewed as a plus defensive OF, he led the league in assists several times (errors too). He played in the Polo Grounds, which surely confuses the defensive metrics.
At some point near the end of his age 27 season or perhaps the next year, he got sick. For a partial season, the Giants employed a full time nurse to help him through the season. He was done in baseball at 29 and dead at age 30, of kidney disease.
He was added to the HOF by the notorious Frisch-led veterans committee, but don't hold that against him...he was a helluva player.
I guess there are a lot of bunts on that spray chart. Until I thought of that, I was ready to take Davey at his word.
This series is really depressing. Can you put some cat memes in here or something?
and I guess you'd want to use a median pitcher BABIP rather than aggregate BABIP.
If we're to be as kind as possible to Mr. Ryan, that is.
a ten thousandth, meaning a tenth of a "point" of BABIP?
Might be different, I think. There are plenty of short pitcher careers happening all across the age spectrum.
Love this. Really happy you guys brought it back.
Looks like Dave Holgado and I think similarly. Some of these pairs are so different (like 4LR & 5LR), I'm going to have a hard time ascribing the outcome to the catcher, whatever the outcome.
This would be interesting to see in terms of service time, as well, since he puts that forward too.
re: Jack Cust's ridiculous baserunning, I always felt the Orioles overreacted to this and thought much less of him than they should. At this point (Aug 16), he was batting .214 / .371 /.607 and had appeared in all 11 games since he'd been promoted (8 starts and 3 PH appearances). He started the next two games but then was used sparingly the rest of the year.
He got 1 PA with the Orioles in April of the next year (2004), spent most of the year in AAA Ottowa and didn't make it back to the bigs until 2007, where he put up a 912 OPS for Oakland.
Your browser does not support iframes.
I would have gone with Cabreriffic.
Otherwise, well done!
First pitch in the second at bat was definitely a curve, not a change.
I love this post.
How has Wieters ranked in years past? I'm surprised that you find his name surprising.
Schoop: part 3? Or not even?
I'm glad Manny got your pep talk! Well done.
One thing about the Orioles last year is that they had a number of replacement-level (or nearly so) parts they could shift around, and those players had options remaining. I think it's easier said than done for most teams.
see how Holliday is out on his front foot a little, too? It's a change up, I think.
an 80 MPH sinker? I don't think so.
"typical" might not be the right word for Bradley's line, though I'd love to see a season where that was a player's typical day.
I love this piece, btw.
One bit of feedback: I find the twitter section hard to read. The way it's constructed, the last line of each entry is the furthest left, so it looks like a header. I've been reading these a while, and it still fools me from time to time even though I understand how it works.
I think people started saying command because control is generally used just to mean balls & strikes.
I agree the words don't really have an inherent difference, it's just usage.
yeah, so I'll be happy with SD of TAv
I guess I was asking about WARP, which is skewed because playing time scales with TAv for most players. But TAv + SD TAv would be nice to have.
thanks! Seems like it would be useful.
Glad to see these. Two questions for you - is there a simple variability measure you could give here that would be useful? e.g., 4.9 WARP with a 2WARP St Dev?
I'm sure it's not that simple, since the percentiles don't appear to be perfectly symmetrical...nevertheless, there is surely some number that can show that player A has a more volatile expected WARP than player B. It would be nice to get that, conceptually, without having to look at each player's percentiles.
hey, guess what? He's pretty good. Not nearly a big a miss as several of those on the list above.
no, that's why I said "ew."
An extraordinary July, if memory serves, where they played terribly and still put up a ~500 record. From the promotion of Machado to the end of the year, they were pretty close to their pythag.
I don't understand the "played above their heads" part of your comment. The 3rd order stuff, I do get. In what sense did they play over their heads?
I guess those peripherals were part of what I saw as weak - slow mechanics and poor decision-making on top of below-average arm strength. So, the 4 was playing down, I guess, in my view. Hopefully SSS or an area he can improve. I like his offensive skills and range.
Can you give some context for a "4?" Where did Johnny Damon's grade?
(i mean, off-topic to Playoff Odds Report, not PFM.)
It's interesting to think about what the narrative would be for the Orioles, if they hadn't been so lucky last year. This has nothing to do with PECOTA.
But if they were a team that finished ~.500, playing much better down the stretch than early in the year, with some young talent having made an impact and some more on the way, I somehow think expectations would be higher in the analytical community than they are in fact.
Again, PECOTA doesn't work that way, so this is off-topic to PFM, just an observation.
On Xavier Avery, one of the things that showed up in his ML time last year was a terrible throwing arm. SSS - I'm probably talking about 4 or 5 plays all together. Is this something people mentioned? How much do scouts really care about terrible throwing arms in LF or CF?
Roberts suffered a concussion in Sept 2010 and a second one in 2011; he's clearly not been a productive player since then in very limited time. However, it's not like most injuries, and it's difficult to know how he will come back, if he is indeed over the symptoms.
The argument that he should see time ahead of Flaherty is simply that his ceiling is much much higher. His old player skills - a very good batting eye and some pop - shouldn't have deteriorated much, all else equal.
also, what did go wrong for Eddie in Baltimore in the mid-80s?
google much? :)
That's a terrible argument.
Thanks for telling this story.
Loved this...thanks Tom, and thanks BP for linking up with Tom & deadspin.
I don't really have anything to say, but....first!
yeah, McLouth is a big if. It easy to like him at his current price, though.
I'm not sure the bullpen was as historic as you think, though.
Luis Ayala had a better season in 2011.
Darren O'Day had a better season in 2009 & 2010
Jim Johnson was just as effective in 2011, and pitched 30% more innings that year.
Lindstrom was about as useful as he'd been in Colorado.
Pedro Strop was the only guy whose performance established a new peak, and he'd been quite effective in limited action before that.
Now, nobody should count on these guys all having good years again, of course. But their collective performance wasn't a miracle, either.
I loved this post. Thanks.
In Baltimore's defense, they were much better (and less lucky) in the second half (well, the last third). If Tillman and McLouth's performances in August and September are indicative of their true talent level and Machado takes a step forward, there's some pretty significant improvement (improvement over the full year team stats).
Sure, they still need another young arm to step forward and deliver consistent performance, and none of the core hitters can backslide....but if you squint at it just right, this still looks like a contender.
My impression: his rep in Baltimore for being a bad defensive 1B is from a few errors of the sort that are hard to forget - the inexplicable clang of a couple of accurate throws that just bounced out of his glove. Quantitative defensive measures seem to suggest that he's about average.
I thought he was pretty good in limited time in the OF last year, but I may be alone in that view.
cool. Is Dylan Bundy no longer a prospect? Or do you think he'll start at AAA?
what? No Ryan Flaherty? :)
Thanks for the notes. I wonder if the Cards hold Taveras in reserve...it's gotta be tempting to try and get value for Holliday or Beltran and hand Taveras a spot.
The Orioles currently project to be starting Reimold or a rotating cast of AAA players in LF, Chris Davis at 1st and Betemit at DH. Those aren't holes?
fun article. 3-0 pitches shouldn't count (or should be measured on a different scale.)
Has a franchise ever peaked in its first year?
I wouldn't be sure - pitchers aren't always trying to hit the target, particularly with breaking balls.
I've had fun comparing the Giants' recent picks (and development of them) to my Orioles picks of the last several drafts. It's aggravating, to say the least:
2008 Matusz (4) Posey (5)
2007 Wieters (5) Bumgarner (10)
2006 Rowell (9) Lincecum (10)
Each of those picks made good sense at the time.
Thanks. I wonder if they'll still be willing to move Machado (or Schoop) back to SS after Hardy's contract is up (2 more years), or whether they'll do anything in the interim. I can't think of any precedent of a team starting a big prospect at one position, and then moving him leftward after more than 2 years at the initial position. Maybe 1B-OF, but other than that....
Thanks....Any opinion on whether Schoop could play 2B for the Orioles next year at some point?
The "character" narratives are terrible, but they're also low-hanging fruit.
I'd argue that statistical analysis of baseball wouldn't be the least bit interesting if it yielded no narratives. The best work of the stat community has been not only in exploding false narratives but in creating new ones that are supported by data. Is "narrative" really different from "conclusions?"
Without narratives, stats are just trivia.
The Orioles bullpen will almost certainly NOT be better next year. Same for the A's. But those young starters...wow!
I love the 162 game season as well, but the continual expansion of the playoffs is already ludicrous, with game 7 this year again scheduled for November.
"Prior to 1995, four of 30 teams made MLB’s playoffs."
There weren't 30 teams until 1998, and of course only two teams made the WS from 1903-1968.
Hardy has batted in the 2-hole all year despite his .282 OBP. Some day, perhaps the O's will return him to the bottom of the lineup. But for now, he's probably the worst 2-hitter in baseball.
WAR isn't looking at replacement value on each outcome or each skill. It's looking at the total number of runs the player produces or saves, and then comparing that number to what a replacement player produces or saves.
I can't decide if I'm happy or sad that this selection of the guys working in the business isn't any different on this stuff (awards) than a random collection of hardcore fans would be.
Each includes a positional adjustment, so adding them together is a double positional adjustment.
so, if my subscription increases in value, can I sell it for a profit?
again, we're not talking about PDA, but one player "thanking" another with a kiss. And the team saying "please don't" has literally nothing to do with PDA or what might happen between two men in a relationship.
Now, I'm not naive enough to think that they'd be excited about PDA between players, either. But I don't see this as having anything to do with that.
yes, but the comments weren't about a player kissing his boyfriend, they were about a player kissing his teammate.
How is it different from Escobar's eyeblack? Hard to believe this question is serious, but it's different because it's a response to an actual thing that an actual player actually said. Do you want one of your coworkers (male, female, hot or not) to kiss you after he/she does something well? Would a note in your workplace reminding you not to kiss coworkers on the mouth be amusing? Or intimidating?
I think it's also OK for a team to joke (or state) that a kiss on the lips would be unwelcome. Why wouldn't it be?
"After therefore because of" sounds much better in Latin.
Wieters more often bats 3rd or 4th vs. L, that's why his numbers look better in those spots.
I knew Dylan Bundy was talented, maybe too talented for his level. But I had not realized he started pitching lefty, just to even things out. Very impressive, eh?
Terrific. So, you'll have your top 100 out next week? :)
190 comments and not one chastising you for writing "lead" instead of "lede?" This really is the best place on the interwebs. :)
Good luck and thank you for the great columns!
#2 is probably also the splitter. It's very like #1, but Darvish misses his spot a bit. Soto sets up the same way in #1 and #2, different from #3.
I see what you're saying, thanks for taking the time.
But .278 is the new projection. A TAv of .271 was the preseason PECOTA. Ergo, he's shown PECOTA that he's somewhat better than it had thought. TAv of .278 was his ~65th%ile preseason projection, now it's the median for the remainder of the year.
Again, I'm not saying that we should bet on the breakout being the "new normal" for him. But neither was the breakout meaningless.
You know, a player who posts a .983 OPS for the first third of the season and a .785 OPS the rest of the season is not the same as a player who posts a .785 OPS for a whole season, right?
Sure, he's not a 1.000 OPS player, but it's entirely possible - even probable - that he's better than .785, and I would bet that PECOTA will agree (unless he falls apart the next five weeks).
"I want to flip on the animal brain, the one where I join the herd of yelling, chanting fans and leave behind the projections and The Sabermetrician's Cookbook. "
He looks good in the field and had two hits. Buck will play him until/unless he embarrasses himself.
o rly? You're GM #2...you're going to give up a top prospect and not get the best player (Hernandez) in the deal?
Teagarden only doubled home the GW run. But please don't change anything else about that comment.
I guess Machado picked a bad weekend to hit for the cycle, huh?
:) As always, I enjoyed your column.
Faulkner wishes he could write tick-tock like that. Especially now that he's dead.
on August 21, 1997 they appeared in the same game. Doug threw two scoreless, but Todd got the save.
Indeed, there is already a link below under "More Future Shock," although it doesn't lead anywhere.
Well, let's not ignore that Ondrusek is projected to be worth 0.1 WARP not just this year, but each year for the time that he's under team control. So, that totally changes things.
worst baseball video game everrrrr
The obvious answer is that the pit needs to appear suddenly and unexpectedly at random spots all over the field. It would be like whac-a-mole, except with baseball players (and, occasionally, umpires, bat boys, police officers and bullpen cars) falling down into pits instead of plastic gophers* popping out of holes.
* Don't even try. That's not a mole.
It's all there for Harrelson - he's loud, he's a huge homer, he's not perceptive, he doesn't tell entertaining stories, and he never shuts up. Other that that, he's fine.
Tillman had been on a nice run in the minors, but rarely went through 7 innings. In his first big-league start this year, Buck lets him try for a shutout and he throws 125 pitches.
Now he sucks again.
If not, this may be the first of many similar questions:
Where does your defensive work put Matt Wieters?
why smooth A-Rod's TAV curve? It may be the best fit, but it's not a very good one. He's almost off the chart at ages 29 & 31 and falling far more than is "typical" since then.
have you watched the last couple of WS?
They done good, that Chestertown college did.
Baltimore is more than 100 miles from the Atlantic Ocean. Due East of Baltimore you will find these places:
America's largest estuary, the Chesapeake Bay!
Sportsman's Paradise and birthplace of Jimmie Foxx, Maryland's Eastern Shore!
The State of Delaware!
But wait! You're only halfway there! Act now, and you'll find:
And that's not all! I'll throw in a 50 jaunt through South Jersey before you reach Atlantic City, where you can swim with the fishes!
not to mention the defecting.
question - maybe the good counts themselves are positively correlated with the higher variability of speed and movement. i.e., when he's got a good knuckler going, he's more likely to get into good counts.
Does that make sense? Can you test or control for that?
When DeLino DeShields was an Oriole, he DeFended his perceived lack of hustle afield in comparison to Jerry by saying that he (DeShields) has long legs, so it doesn't look like he's working hard, while Hairston has short legs, so it looks like he's trying very hard, but he's not actually getting anywhere.
Which is the best explanation I have heard about why he was mostly not especially good at running or fielding, and yet has a reputation for being good at those things.
The link from the home page took me to The Hit List for June 19th, by Wojo. Sadly, it was blank.
Dylan Bundy and Matt Wieters will unite to form VOLTRON and dominate the majors for years to come, guest starring Machado and Jones and a Lion to be named later.
who has the highest variance in his trot times? Given, say, 10 HR.
I mean WARP/$.
except you can get 0.5 WARP for pretty close to the ML minimum and no commitment.
This is where WARP/win breaks down.
and it could be 5 years, and it could be a lot more than $30 million, with the arb years.
bear in mind the slot for the #1 pick isn't a 9-year contract like Soler's.
nice to hear Prior's doing well. Thanks for including him.
I would have gone with the pointless all-out throw home. Good try, though.
er... something like that.
Better that Harper dive for the phone than play it like those George Bailey's dang kids.
The Orioles are not a small-revenue franchise. I agree with the rest of your comment.
a guy with a .300 OBP and bad defense has zero value. The 20 HR adds some. 20-25 doubles is nothing special. Plus he's 36 already, so it's more likely to get worse than to get better.
How do you pronounce Rougned?
Care to elaborate? I'm not doubting, just looking for the trivia tidbit.
Watching Chen has been great fun. Watching Chen and Matusz in the same rotation has been instructive. So far this year, Chen = Matusz + command. Chen hits his spots.
I assume he's talking about metal bats. The specs were changed before 2011, driven by fear of more awful pitcher injuries and the stats fell off dramatically.
Hey Sam, what's not to like about Jim Johnson?
But yeah, Scoreboard!
BTW, that's a great one to pull out in a poker game, when someone is pulling a Helmuth and criticizing your play after you've won a big pot.
very good. +1
Though the last pitch is borderline in the box, it's in an area that's rarely called a strike (doesn't brooks have that kind of data?).
And, framed or not, you rarely get the called strike three on a borderline pitch that misses the catcher's target so badly.
In the "Rain On My Parade" section, last sentence "...pre-May 13 sellouts..." should be "...rainouts," right?
Thanks for these updates. It will be interesting to see the CBA.
Cool article, thanks. The RBIP / SLGBIP numbers also include Hamilton in LF over Murphy (usually, since most of Gentry's innings come in games he starts). Since the RBIP shows a difference of .013, while the % of BIP caught shows a difference of .023, does that suggest that Murphy is a lot better than Hamilton in LF? Or that Moreland is much better than his platoon partner(s)? Any opinions on that?
I'm pretty sure an Oriole got caught this way last year, too....and I think those are the only two I've ever seen, in more than 30 years of watching baseball games.
here it is:
I'll never be able to look at the SS the same way again.
sidearmers seem to be over-represented here. I think the Orioles O'Day -0 another sidearmer - picked off Alexi Ramirez this way April 17th.
I can't find video, but I'm pretty sure that's how it went down. Ended the inning in a 1-run game...what an awful play by Ramirez.
It was a Rocky Colavito trivia double dip:
Not only was Colavito the last AL position player with a pitching win before Chris Davis did it, he was also the last player to hit 4HR against the Orioles.
I think the world would be making a much bigger deal about it if you were correct. It's not been done, yet.
You know what? Harper really is a hard-charging, arrogant SOB. You can't say much about it so long as he backs it up on the field.
Indeed, he led the AL in infield hit %
The three stills of one of his swings are great. You make the point about his hands, but note also how remarkably still his head is.
And if Corey Patterson hadn't any power and learned to hit the ball on the ground, who knows what would have become of him. He thought he was Willie Mays Hayes.
if you filter by AA, Simon Castro shows up on the IP & hits leaderboards twice...I guess because he was on two different teams' lists? Not a big deal, but not sure that's what you want.
This is very cool, terrific stuff.
Don Baylor. Upright stance, on top of home plate, with the elbow tucked in, just daring guys to throw inside.
Hyperactive Lenny Dykstra, with his fingers flying.
Guys like Mattingly and Markakis, who change(d) their stances somewhat every few weeks.
picture/video worth thousands of words...thanks.
It's like financial advice...you're right almost all the time, and then BAM! 2008 happens, and all the bug-eyed shit-smeared lunatics are right for the first time in your life...and then you have to listen to them for another two decades.
Interesting that the Orioles kept Schoop and Machado together. The same comments above could have been written for Schoop, except for the injury.
Jim Palmer said on the Orioles telecast on Saturday that he thought Bundy would be in the big leagues this year (for a cup of coffee).
What do you see as a best-case timetable for a talent like this, i.e., if he encounters no setbacks. 2 full years in the minors?
what's accounts for the difference between team WARP and team W/L?
For example, why do the Marlins and Braves have the same team WARP, but four games separate them in the projected W/L?
Fun stuff. My wife likes baseball on TV, in that she can read or knit while it's on.
It's a great topic. As a team assembles prospects, I've got to believe the high upside guys are the ones they should be targeting, assuming they can identify which path they're on before promoting them to the major leagues.
That should work out, because you only need so many guys out of your system...a 2WAR player isn't (of course) replacement level, but he's also not that hard to find.
Cespedes will get more than that, I think. You'll see the difference between a free agent makes and what a guy who was under team control for part of those five years makes.
Remember, it doesn't matter what the average of eight teams' thinking is....it only matters what the team that likes him the most is willing to offer.
Is there really room to build another stadium on the real estate near Dodger Stadium? It looks like you'd need to cut into parkland, too, and I imagine that would be tough to accomplish.
Funny, when I think of AAAA players, I think of the truly fungible replacement level ML player. Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos, Darnell McDonald, Tim Raines Jr., Chad Mottolo, Karim Garcia (all 2004 Orioles, incidentally)
Mostly, these are good (or even great) athletes, guys who can do everything (hit, run, field). They just couldn't hit enough or with enough power to hold down a major league job.
Fun stuff. I feel I must point out that a player could be both overrated and a clear HOF'er. Like Tony Gwynn, maybe.
If only Scott Boras had advised me, I would have passed my GED at 12. Of course, I would still have gone undrafted, not even Boras could have changed that....
At the risk of stating the obvious, it's a lot easier and cheaper to find 2-3 WAR guys than 6 WAR guys. You'd have to trade a whole lot of 2 WAR players to get one 6 WAR players, all else equal.
I would guess that will mean the #1 pick isn't going to get $10 million.
The suggestion that Duquette is the fool means that, maybe, he shouldn't have taken the job, doesn't it?
Wow, Rany...wow! This is great stuff, and the effect is so large that these are likely to be merely quibbles. You've got the interns, though, so I'll ask you:
Risk - Overall, it seems to me that you're lacking a risk measurement (variance comes to mind). Are the younger players more varied in their output? It doesn't seem so, but this would be important.
Cost - Does it cost more to sign & develop these guys? Do fewer of them sign?
Draft position as a measure of consensus value estimate - We all know that some kids fall in the draft because their demands are known to be extravagant, or whatever. Possibly the young sample is over-weight on guys who fall due to signability and/or get way above-slot bonuses? I guess that ties back into the cost question, above. And maybe I should read your 2005 article.
Is capping the downside at zero unrealistic? Probably, but given the scant data you'd have to work with in terms of the resources spent on a player before he's out of baseball, I don't know what else you'd do here, exactly...but the absence of any cost/risk in the calculation could be distorting.
Discount rate...I think 8 is probably too high, but on the other hand you should probably cut the analysis off before year 15, when player salaries are set at market rates after 8-10? years. There may be great production in year 12, but you're likely to have paid through the nose for it.
He only played 400 innings in the OF this year, about 100 total chances, and made some memorably bad plays (including one that was the proximate cause of his demotion). I'd guess it's small sample size, but perhaps inattention.
Luke Scott got a lot of credit for getting Pie to relax and enjoy baseball, and the hitting coach also got a lot of kudos for rescuing Pie, who was clearly about to be out of baseball when he joined the O's.
Of course, all that resulted in him being a replacement-level player, so it can't be surprising that he collapsed.
Three words: Chan Ho Park. The Rangers signed him to a contract that made him one of the ten best-paid players in baseball and were rewarded with ERAs near 6 and injuries (for which they may have been thankful). Some powerful fielding and luck adjustments bring his WARP total to 1.7 for the first three years, and (really?) another 3.4 for his half season in '05.
David Hernandez says you can't apply Reynolds (paltry) WARP to the Bedard trade, Mickolio's 6 innings pitched notwithstanding.
typo in Kevin's paragraph - I wish Baker was playing in triple-A.
This blog post is from MLB.com and who gives a sh*t!
Not offensive, but Kevin's comment wasn't defensive, so I assume people gave you a minus for calling him out unnecessarily. I gave you a plus to help out.
Cool...where does the Rule of 17 come from?
I know Schoop went blow-for-blow with Machado while they were teammates at Delmarva, but I'm shocked (happily!) to see him on this list. I guess I can put you down on the "not worried" list, as it applies to his month of lackluster performance in Frederick?
Schoop was 6th among your Orioles top 11 before this year, the lowest of the O's 3-star prospects. Has anyone else in your top 50 made a similar leap this year? I hope you'll forgive me for not knowing the answer already. :)
I think you're right, so far: Wieters has underperformed expectations by a mile. His defensive prowess (which is real) can't make up for the lousy offense, and lord knows he hasn't made the pitching good (not that any catcher would).
I still think
1) your tone is poorly thought out - remember the vocal minority that's getting to you on this issue may deserve it, but you're posting this for all of us. I would think this would be old hat for all of you at BP, or any internet venture, by now.
2) you should at least acknowledge the possibility that PECOTA, which at one time not so long ago produced the most aggressive predictions of any reputable source, is now under-predicting his future line. Right?
3) you should (as others have said) acknowledge his youth and, you know, the possibility that you will be proven wrong in time. (the term "so far" probably should figure prominently here.
all FWIW, which is not much.
They should trade one, I suppose. I'd guess they're not looking to add veterans this year, however, so it's hard to see who'd parter with them. Maybe they can get what they need in a 3-way deal.
I was at Hagerstown last night....Harper also got picked off twice and didn't get much of a jump on a couple of plays in the OF (in my not-as-humble-as-it-oughtta-be opinion).
But, yeah, the bat is miles beyond the Sally League.
I went out to Hagerstown yesterday, and Mr. Harper got picked off, twice. Maybe you got him too excited, Kevin!
He did, of course, have three singles, a walk and a 10th inning come-from-behind walk-off homer. So, he's got that going for him.
How soon before they move him to High A, I wonder?
Orioles 1st & Supplemental Round draft picks:
2006s Pedro Beato
2005 Brandon Snyder
2005s Garret Olson
2002 Adam Loewen (injured & out of baseball)
2001 Smith (see above)
2001 Mike Fontenot
2001s Bryan Bass
2000 Beau Hale
2000s Tripper Johnson
1999 Mike Paradis
1999 Rich Stahl
1999 Larry Bigbie
1999 Keith Reed
1999s Josh Cenate
1999s Scott Rice
1999s Brian Roberts
1998 Rick Elder
1998s Mamon tucker
1997 Jayson Werth
1997 Darnell McDonald
1997s Ntema Ndungi
The only good thing to say about all that is that Hobgood is the exception in recent drafts - Wieters, Machado, Matusz are all strong choices.
The period from 1998-2002 might be record-breaking futility. Add in that they threw away Jayson Werth when they decided he couldn't stick at catcher, you can go all the way back to 1992 (Hammonds) or 1990 (Mussina) before you find a good 1st round pick that they developed successfully. This was a problem for a long time - it was often said that the team didn't draft & develop a position player successfully between Ripken and Hammonds. Signing FAs was the preferred method of bringing talent on board, and reportedly they didn't invest in scouting or development.
1999 did bring Roberts, and Bedard in the 6th round. Surely there are other 2nd+ round players I'm missing, but I oughtta get to work.
Meanwhile, in Tampa, Toronto and Baltimore....
Kevin might want to read some better scripts....
Over the last couple of years, local jerkoffs were calling him Fat Albers after poor performances.
You have to adjust for the different eras of prospect hype. Using raw "data," I'd say that nobody from the 80s was hyped as much as anyone on this year's top 100 lists.
Ruben Rivera was called up when Bernie Williams went on the DL, with the public statement that he would return to the minors no matter what. He started 15 games and hit well, and was demoted anyway. He had a .317/.455/.488 line at the time and didn't have time to slump. I'm not sure what the left fielders have to do with anything.
Back in Columbus, he reportedly bitched about the demotion. He definitely didn't hit, and and one point Reggie Jackson was dispatched to talk some sense into him (this might have been before or after this point in his career, I forget.) Late in the season, he hurt his arm making two Bo Jacksonesque throws from the outfield in a 14-1 game. For whatever reason, he never again produced at the plate.
In looking this up, I see that he's been DESTROYING the Mexican League, along with some other MLB washouts like Geronimo Gil and Roberto Petaigne...just a reminder of how skilled MLB players are.
Ty Wigginton gives his all and I love him, but he doesn't have the range to play first base, let alone right field. Good gravy!
I found a number of articles mentioning Zach's brother Buck, who's also at AAA for the Orioles, as a utility guy. I assume one of these would have mentioned the connection to Drake, so he's probably not related.
If he hits like Pujols or Cabrera, he's a HOF'er. That's not good enough for #3 on your list?
It'll be interesting to see how Nick does with a better lineup all around. Call it "protection" or reduced pressure or the fun of batting second with Brian Roberts on first base, and someone who can hit a bit behind you...I think he'll be a very valuable guy for the O's this year, again.
I think you'll find that Brady was thought to be a juicer because his HR total went
50 fifty 50
Foster's 52HR was odd, but not that odd, and Banks and Soriano don't fit that kind of pattern at all.
exactly this. Tough words from a man with 50-year-old knees who somehow got St.Louis to pay him a bunch of money to play the outfield.
oh, sorry to post a quick negative...I do like the article & find it thought-provoking. The chart is hardly central to your work here...all the more reason for me to wonder why it's there.
Does the second chart say anything of value? The incidence of one-run leads looks to be correlated to the overall run-scoring environment.
If the option is not exercised, he's entitled to the buyout money regardless of what contract he signs for 2012.
Yeah, I think it's become an excuse for some really bad decisions, like trading away some pretty good talent for a pretty good pitcher to move yourself from 5th place to 3rd place in the NL's worst division.
"Hey, look at what the Giants accomplished last year with a bunch of cast-offs and re-treads and great starting pitching! We've got some cast-offs and re-treads, let's go get some starters!
I think it's a pretty interesting quote, I wonder whether Shilling's trying to figure out if he disliked the guy because he is gay, or because he was "such a pain in the ass," or whether, as you suggest, Shilling thinks he a pain in the ass as a reaction to the tough environment.
"When the time comes I know that, if I wind up with the privilege, I'll be voting for a few flawed heroes from a flawed period."
I thought that was pretty clear.
"...we're pretty comfortable with where we're at:" last place.
Questioning whether Barack Obama was born in the US isn't a political position. It's a falsifyable allegation - indeed, a falsified allegation.
It's a stupid position to hold.
If I ask really nicely, will you trade Alonso to the orioles for Luke Scott, um, some relievers who might get cut anyway?
I'm all for fathers spending more time with their families, but really, Andy, are there years where it's not important to be around?
Thanks for the article. Here's hoping that Brad continues to evolve; I don't think I've ever seen quite as significant a change in a pitcher's arsenal as I saw in his during 2010.
I guess that makes Evans the all-time leader in marginal rings over Lee May (MROLM).
Thanks for pointing out Wigginton's mediocre season. It's only the overall ineptitude of the Orioles offense that makes people think Ty's done something special. Of course, when comparing him to the astonishingly awful performance of the Oriole formerly known as Garret Atkins, he does look quite good!
Good question, addressed by KG some months ago:
Aha! Thanks very much.
I think they should offer him arbitration and hope he declines. He probably should decline arbitration, since I'm sure he can get at least $30/3 yrs, which has to be better than $12/1 yr. Probably he can do far better than $30/3, and I assume the value of having Paps for one more year isn't that significant for the Sox given the likely available options and the draft pick compensation.
No worries, clearly. Thanks for fixing it so I can re-read the bit on Britton another dozen times and dream on that 2012 Orioles rotation some more (which, I suppose, will look a lot like the 2011 rotation, only more experienced).
The 1st paragraph somehow got inserted into the middle of the second paragraph.
Thanks for the info, as always. This is one thing I read all the time.
Even if you can save $30M/6 years in concessions, there are likely to be costs in fan satisfaction, and you can't repeat that very often.
I, too, would love to hear more about Tillman. I know he was working on a cutter and possibly the change, amybe that explains the lower K/9 in AAA...but, check the major-league numbers, he wasn't striking out ANYBODY in the majors. This was true even when he had good starts, BTW.
In the majors, his velocity was never as good as advertised, either - he sat 89-91, not 92-94, and the fastball was pretty straight. Frankly, I don't know how that kind of stuff could have generated those minor league numbers, so I have to wonder whether he's hurt, or his mechanics are off, or what.
I don't know whether "pitch-type values" are a valid stat, but they correctly diagnose that Tillman's fastball has not been a major-league-level pitch.
So, any comments here, Kevin? I know it sometimes just all comes together for a guy, and it can be a mysterious process...but do scouts see anything wrong with Tillman (other than the results).
O's fans everywhere
post-trading deadline, Houston is clearly the worst team in baseball, and probably will hold that title for a while.
It's only application that I am aware of is an attempt to separate luck and maybe park effects from "true skill." If a guy hits many home runs just over the fence, some of that is simply luck. If a guy hits most of his home runs 400 feet...not so much.
It's certainly not perfect.
It's not a game that contains all the stars, it's a game comprised entirely of stars. Isn't it?
Is there a world outside of fantasy baseball where Markakis's season defined by HR and, god help me, SB?
I'm not sure how the plan for 2012 "has not worked out. " Was the plan in 2012 to compete in 2010? I'm confused.
The Orioles would give you Atkins and, um....Wigginton? Would that get it done for ya?
LOL @ Maytag repairman line.
The reason that one talks about putting Bergesen in Tillman's spot is that major league Tillman does not resemble minor league Tillman circa '09 or prior. He now tops out 90-91 with the arrow-straight fastball and one wonders whether he blew a gasket at some point.
/end third person singular neuter phase
This analysis is completely confirmed by watching him hit every day. He takes fastball strikes early in the count (presumably in an effort to be more patient) and hacks at balls out of the zone in deep counts (including rare hitters counts).
I think what has changed recently is that he's been going after those first-pitch fastballs. Hopefully that triggers a reaction where pitchers get a bit more cautious with the first pitch, and he gets in better counts.
This has been the most frustrating nearly half-season of baseball I've ever watched.
Guthrie isn't farm grown, and is probably as likely to be traded as Milwood, don't you think?
I kinda hope they take Taillon, so my Orioles can get some hitting help in the door. But Taillon looks like the real deal, so I guess I'll be happy either way.
How is Britton's hitting? :)
The Orioles runs are going to be buttressed, one hopes, by whatever they can get for Milwood, Guthrie, Ohman, Atkins (ha!), et al, at the deadline.
I wish you and your father all the best. You obviously feel strongly about thsi - you should file a complaint regarding the facility.
Thanks for the notes on Lumbago Bill - hard to imagine something like that, these days!
That's not the Rich Hill you're looking for.
Matusz is very impressive on the mound and seems like he's reasonably smart, too.
Sunpaper folks think it's going to be Bergesen. He's "earned it."
I couildn't believe it when Paps threw him a splitter. I think Palmer had just finished saying that Hughes could sit dead red, there was no way Papelbon would throw another splitter on 3-2.
I was always amazed watching Willie Randolph draw walks. He'd bend away from anything on the inner half of the plate, or lean way out with his eye on the outside pitch. It was as if he was saying "yes, I considered swinging at it...but it's not a strike."
The umpires seemed to agree with Willie a bit more often than they should have.
like shares of company stock? Seems unlikely, doesn't it?
That would be an awfully valuable conversion option! And fair valuations of ballclubs are not easy to come by.
They might not be equal, because the value ascribed to an at bat is not constant. It would seem that you're not very likely to get the hitter to freeze and watch a third strike in a must-not-strike out situation (runner on third, less than two out, tie game late.)
SCRUBS START, ANGRY MOB CLEANS UP
something like that.
Who're called politicians? That line makes no sense.
Otherwise - thanks for a thoughtful article. I wish I had had better executive function back when I played the game!
Interesting stuff, but couldn't BP do Mr. Kusnick the favor of copy editing the article before posting it?
Actually, I was not entertained. Baseball games took longer, the strike zone was ludicrously small, the wide variety of offensive skills usually highlighted in baseball were diminished in favor of just two - patience and HR power (always the most important, granted). Baseball sucked in the HR Derby era.
"I believe that this is the result of a selection effect - that pitchers who do better than their true expectation are the ones who actually pitch in the majors; any slippage quickly results in reduced playing time or demotion to the minors (except for teams with no reserves, like last year’s Brewer rotation). "
This brought a couple of things to mind.
1) It should be pretty easy to test, if I understand the thesis: pitchers with high expectations (aces) would presumably be allowed to continute to pitch even if they were merely mortal and thus would not suffer from this selection effect as much as pitchers with lower expectations.
2) The other way that pitcher innings get limited is by injury - if some bad pitcher performance in the comps is just pitcher injury (surely some is), then the selection bias would come from this, too. I would guess (though it really is a WAG) that this would be a sort of fat tail in a probability distribution in a pitcher's comps - most of the good pitchers stay at a similar level of performance, some fail modestly and some fall apart due to injury. I guess this would imply that the weighted mean is less useful, since the distribution is less normal (if the WAG is correct.)
Where do you think analytical work comes from? There has to be a theoretical framework first, otherwise you're just cherrypicking backtested data.
Odd to pick on the Miguel Tejada contract - he did post 3 good seasons (WARP of 8.2, 5.1, 5.0, though they're outside the window of your analysis). Sadly, this was among their poorer decisions. Gibbons, and the bullpen triumvirate of Walker, Baez and Bradford - now that's some wasted money!
One thing that changed in 2009 was that he faced more lefties than usual, and his performance against lefties declined even more than his performance against righties, I believe. I'm not sure why one would expect this to change.
Once this is perfected, we'll need to somehow distinguish positioning vs. range. Note to MLB: put RFID chips in the uniforms and the baseballs, so we can solve this problem ASAP!
Very nice article, Steven - thanks.
I do wonder about the description - both by you and by Terry - that the '33 Giants didn't hit much. As you say, they were 4th in runs (of 8) and nearly average in slash lines. They led the league in homers, no doubt aided by some pull hitters at home able to take advantage of the short foul lines. They led the league by a lot, too:
NL Average (ex-Giants): 54.
And 1 demerit to you for not working in the wonderful Lefty O'Doul!
Whether they have such budgets or not today, they should consider it for the reasons Deadheadbrewer mentions. It's clearly superior in terms of having a chance at a flag to fly forever. It may be worse in terms of business performance, I don't know. But it's not like these are publicly traded companies that need to meet quarterly earnings targets or face the wrath of an impatient public. If the business case is there for lumpier spending plans, they shouldn't have any trouble implementing them.
Having said that, I would point out that this is not, in fact, where the Orioles are now. But for three months in 2004, they have not been an "interesting" team since 1998 or so. They are still building a competitive core, the pitchers are still likely too green to form a useful core of a contender - PECOTA, for instance, has both Tillman and Matusz with below league average ERAs. So, Christina's right: they're marking time.
I'd guess the lineup would start out like this:
With Scott batting lower or dropping out altogether vs. L.
Tejada doesn't belong there, but as long as he hits 280+, they won't care that he never walks. Anyway, 6th, 7th...something like that for Wieters at the start. Roberts, Atkins and Izturis are pretty much certain (assuming Atkins doesn't struggle in ST...Lord only knows what they might do if one of the older guys stinks in Florida.) They really liked Jones in the 2 hole, even though he seems to be more of a 5 hitter to me - good power and relatively few walks. PECOTA says he and Reimold are practically interchangeable at the plate.
They're very focused on breaking up the lefties, after 2008's run where Roberts/Markakis/Huff/Scott were their only threats (although Mora came around in the 2H). This helps explain why they went out and got Atkins and, I suppose, Tejada. You'd think Jones, Reimold and Wieters (who was great against lefties in the minors) would be enough. Heck, even Izturis is a credible hitter against lefies.
One thing strikes me as very strange, in fact, it almost seems impossible: there's no improvement at all on the runs allowed line vs 2009. This team gave 75 starts to the following last year (with ERA, just 'cuz I can get it all on one page at BBREF): Berken (6.54), Hernandez (5.42), Hill (7.80), Eaton (8.56), and Hendrickson (5.40 as a starter), and the bullpen was mostly awful. PECOTA has a huge reversion improvement for Guthrie, some improvement for Tillman..reversion for Bergesen. I suppose the math is right, it just seems odd that they would do worse next year in this area. I would have guessed that the pitching / defense would be the more likely area for improvement.
The +100 runs of offense seems unlikely, too, especially since it seems to mostly come from higher batting averages.
I fully agree with the evaluation of Huff. I do think the market has him pretty well figured out, though. So I think this is just plain wrong:
"But he'll probably demand the sort of money that a team wouldn't justify spending on a bench player with no defensive value and probably would be a little rich for a rebuilding team. "
If he wants to play, he'll take an incentivized 1 yr deal. Heck, he might have to take a minor league deal.
I don't agree that "the $6.35 million/win rate using Smith's stat casts low-risk signings in a less friendly light: now they border on inefficient."
They appear to be efficient, in the aggregate, given your comment that "free agents are signing for $6-7 million per win measured by rWAR."
Or am I missing your point here?
(repeat comment - was mis-placed under another, hidden, comment before.)
hmmm...was meant to be under the article, not under this comment, which is now hidden! ack!
I don't agree that "the $6.35 million/win rate using Smith’s stat casts low-risk signings in a less friendly light: now they border on inefficient."
They appear to be efficient, in the aggregate, given your comment that "free agents are signing for $6-7 million per win measured by rWAR."
Or am I missing your point here?
Thanks for the reply. Interesting stuff.
I like the article, I was one of those who commented on this possibility. You're probably right, even 40 wins is probably enough to avoid any true conditioning. If there is a conditioning effect, I might hypothesize that there is probably a higher threshhold in markets where players are getting negatively-skewed feedback, where they're punished for losses far more than they are praised for victories. And one could argue that closer-blown games deliver the most skewed feedback.
And, as you say, direction first, but weren't there some players who fit the first part of the sample and didn't make it to "peak" seasons? I guess I'm asking - does your mini-study have survivorship bias?
Thanks & I look forward to reading more of your work.
Few owners are 100% owners, so it's wrong to think about them as a part of an identifyable conglomerate (e.g., Stein brenner, Inc.)
As with any PV calc, we should be comparing it to the most likely alternate uses of the money: other player contracts, investments in scouting and development, investments in the parks, marketing, etc...
It's also worth thinking about what the goals of ownership are. If they're in win-now-at-all-costs mode, the only meaningful comp is other player contracts. If they're squeezing as much cash flow out of the franchise as possible in the near-term, this would increase the discount rate (since they value the present dollar out of the franchise more than the future dollar).
Finally, in addition to some of moscow25's points below, there is also the portfolio effect to consider - the Mets have many contracts outstanding, and may be simply unable to afford a level-payment market rate contract. In other words, as above, their discount rate is high because, in 2010, for the Mets, money is scarce.
Check the Orioles' attendance vs. wins over the past 12 years. There may be marginal value in not being truly awful.
this. Does the skill exist, can it be "taught?"
Do we know if there is development value in winning 70 games vs. 50 games?
One thing that bugs me about the process is that you "lose" a type A player to whom you've offered arbitration, and you sign a different type A, you net a sandwich pick. That makes no sense at all.
Now we introduce marketing department bias to the equation...why can't the Mets market Beltran's silky smooth outfield play?
I think he ought to be available for something like JJ Hardy, but I think the Orioles actually want to keep Pie, and might have asked for more than Hardy.
Bear in mind, Kevin's description of league average still would have made Bergesen the best starter on the team last year. League-average pitching at league-minimum salary is something the Orioles could use plenty of.
how far do you think this analysis goes? What if Utley had batted 1.000?
This was true...once. YES changed all that. The Yankees and YES have made the Steinbrenners very wealthy.
Seems like Erbe is not throwing as hard as mentioned in previous years (the notes on his PECOTA card mention "97-mph fastball" and "fastball still reaching the upper 90s."
I have also noticed that he threw a lot fewer HR this year, albeit in limited action.
Has he started to throw more of a 2-seamer or something?
Did Erbe make a big change in approach? I think 92-93 is lower velo than he was showing before, isn't it? And I also see the HR/9 were way down '09vs '08.
Has he switched to a 2-seamer or something?
The scouts comments on Tillman are spot on...he's worn out. I wish they'd shut him down.
Smoltz's stats in St. Louis are as freakish, in their way, as his stats in Boston. He's posted the best strikeout and walk rates of his career!
He's had 4 starts for the Cardinals, first vs. San Diego and Washington (11 innings, 1 run) and 2 vs. Milwaukee (11 innings, 7 runs.)
He's still D-U-N done.
The rule that a team must offer at least 80% of the prior-year's salary in arbitration only applies to players still under team control. Players eligible for free agency, like Billy Wagner, are not covered by this rule.
that's what the article says, isn't it?
If a GB happens, avoiding the GIDP is a major victory, a full +1 run in a simple matrix, and I'm sure the P(2 runs) is significantly higher for _23 and 1 out vs. __3 and 2 outs. And P(2 or more runs) is all that matters, really.
Along the same lines, the difference between 1_3 and 1 out and 12_ and 1 out is probably significant, if you're trailing by one run.
Is BP's baserunning metric (ex-stolen base runs) good enough to add into the mix? It seems a natural addition to figure second-order W%...hits, walks, total bases, steals, and bases advanced / outs avoided. Or is that part of "etc."?
I'm surprised at all the folks who never wore 'em. Maybe the fielding was better in your towns. But I distinctly remember hearing the sound of a hard grounder hitting an infielder's cup at least once a year. Reason enough for me to wear one.
a PR guru names "Hack"-ash? wow.
this is the question for me...acknowledging that the .266 EqA is 25th %ile, and then treating it like it's his actual worth is odd.
I really like these Q&A articles. Thank you, David.
Well, I don't think Encarnacion brought much value in this trade, do you? So they might have been better off just DFA'ing Encarnacion, or trading him for an A-ball reliever.
I'd assume potential aquirers talk about Sherrill as a set-up guy because that impies a lower price to get him.
The insinuation was that Rubin was a hell-hath-no-fury scorned applicant, not that he thought he could maneuver himself into Bernazard's seat.
Speaking of the steppes, can you suggest one or more books to read on the panorama of Central Asian empires? That isn't about how they impacted China or the West?
Well, I'd guess the answer is that Jeter shaking his hand in pain was the far bigger story than whether it was a foul strike or a HBP, given that it's an exhibition game.
Thanks for the comics link...much better to rip these things on an ongoing basis, mirroring the soul-crushing constancy of their suckitude. Visit the comics curmudgeon if you're interested.
good point. J.P. would probably have to include himself in the deal.
Has anyone with $50 million or so in lifetime earnings come back to coach? Mo will have earned ~$100 million.
Hmm.. I liked the setup and reference to your earlier work. I liked the article OK - seems the BP staff has some experience with articles like this one that may be coloring their views.
In a continuation from my comments last week about Babe Ruth's luck/ability to prevent hits, let me ask you this: Why would you take hits against Brett Cecil as confirmation of his fatigue? Aren't they just random events uninfluenced by pitchers?
It would be interesting to know this stuff, but it's of questionable utility - the baserunner or manager can't possibly determine whether there is an 80% chance of success vs. a 65% chance of success.
thanks for the fun article, Kevin.
We can't just stipulate that preventing hits in the deadball era was all luck and defense. The fact that Ruth delivered hit rates 10-22% lower than his teammates for each of the 4 years (1034 innings) suggests that it was neither luck nor defense.
Year - Innings - H/9 - team H/9 ex-Ruth - % below team ex-Ruth
1915 - 217.2 - 6.9 - 7.6 - 10%
1916 - 323.2 - 6.4 - 8.2 - 22%
1917 - 326.1 - 6.7 - 7.8 - 14%
1918 - 166.1 - 6.8 - 7.6 - 11% (1918 was a 124-game season)
4 sea - 1034 - 6.66 - 7.82 - 15%
In 1919, he started 15 games, and simply didn't have it - he gave up 10 hits/9 with the highest BB/9 and lowest K/9 rates of his career. Maybe because he got 500+ ABs. Or maybe Ruth had peaked as a pitcher in 1916 - his K/9 and K/BB rates were falling fast from that peak. But it's generally attributed to him not dedicating himself to pitching - he got PH ABs in 1916-1917, but didn't appear in the field until 1918, when he started 19 games on the mound and played in 72 in the field (and got his second ring in three seasons).
Anyway, I would suggest that the burden of proof is on those of you who say that Ruth's low H/9 rates are luck and defense. You both seem to have it as an article of faith.
Interesting topic, provocative analysis, clearly written. I don't think you proved the point, but I liked the piece. Thumbs up.
I like it more on rereading. Nice work.
Thanks for clarifying - I had forgotten about the zero-sum game of Win Shars.
I apologize for the harsh tone of my last note.
I don't get your response on H/9. I can't see how it would be explained by team defense given his huge margin of outperformance of his teammates. But my main point - maybe the only point that's really fair, given the time constraints you had - is that you can't just ignore this thing that happened.
On the translation - thanks for clarifying...I had assumed that the DT was done using straight league averages.
On the HR/9, you could do the DT with 1 HR vs his actual 0 HR in 1916, just as an exercise to measure the sensitivity. Since the league average is so low, each HR has a disproportionate effect on his translated stats and translated ERA. It really does call into question the whole thing, in a 'why bother' kind of way.
The subprime analogy is apt (you could use any bubble for your analogy.)
IMO, it was a cute joke...until you had to explain it. And if you didn't explain it, I suppose most readers wouldn't have known what you meant. Probably should have found a more accessible analogy or left it out. 162-word explanations of jokes are no fun.
To add to Christina's comment - reducing everything to % may obscure some of these trends. Maybe the bigger change over the past 20 years is that teams have started to take 1B and corner OF defense more seriously, so the % of fielding runs from SS has dropped while the absolute level has held steady. Or not - can't tell.
And what's with the arbitrary decade stuff? Why not give us a moving average? Or break it into periods that purport to define these "eras" of shortstopness.
I really like the article, in all. A solid jumping off point.
Fun, but undermined by the totally arbitrary height cutoff, absence of any park adjustments and the walks thing. (Mel Ott is not the droid you're looking for).
The links...I've never been so glad to see Hitler's picture, as I wasn't sure which theater Yogi had served in.
In a low-HR, low-K, are H/9 really an ignorable statistic, entirely defense dependent? Is it OK for the article to make that implicit assumption without discussion?
I don't think it is OK, given that the Babe finished 2, 1, 3, 4 in H/9 in his four full seasons of pitching. He's much better than teammates at preventing hits in '16-'18 (15-20% better than the rest of the team, and none of the other starters were bad pitchers). So, the more I look at it, the more I have to question that it's not at least addressed that his record is built by avoiding hits, whether by luck or skill. I mean, how else does a pitcher with average HR, BB and K rates get so much better results than the other pitchers on the staff?
I don't understand the shift from league averages (via DT) to a sample that only includes 150+ innings hurlers...that's definitely not kosher. Maybe there's no difference between this 150+ IP sample and league average, but you don't say that.
And it has to be worth a word on the HR translation being is a bit silly because we're talking about 8 homers in 1200 innings. And 0 HR in 1916 translates into 0.72HR/9 somehow...I understand the idea, but a few caveats seem in order...obviously these translations break down at certain extremes, and HR rates from the deadball era is one of them. For example, if he'd allowed 1 HR that year, he would have had a MUCH higher translated ERA for you, right?
The writing is clear and concise, though more slangy than I like it. I certainly never doubt what you're trying to say, which is a solid plus.
I don't think you've proved your point, and I get the feeling that the stuff you've left out was left out because it doesn't fit your conclusion...and that's no good.
Good work, overall. I have a couple of comments.
1. No conclusions drawn. Sure, we numbers people are fans, too, but I would like some analysis, not just a numbers-assisted trip down memory lane. Some suggestions made by other posters above (it's all about the outs, or the missed opportunities). Or at least discussion of what CE adds to our understanding of the game.
2. I'm sure many will disagree, but - Too linear. Maybe I'm too accustomed to reading Christina, but there were a thousand interesting side trips to take here. Obviously you can't take 'em all, but I'd have a better idea of how you write and think if you took one or two of them: it's not a term paper. You mention that you're going to use a 50% WE for each following game, and your comments here show you're aware of the benefits and drawbacks of doing that...isn't that worth a few words? And, again, maybe I'm addicted to snark, but are you really going to leave Fay Vincent's quote unsmirked upon? It's core to BP (in my view) that such meaningless marketing drivel isn't taken at face value. Or was the smirk implicit?
3. I agree with an above commenter - you could have used twice the words to address this fully. Which suggests you might have bitten off more than you should have for this assignment.
Summary - I enjoyed it a ton, but so many questions are raised that I want more. So, pretty good.
I'm pretty sure the Astros were aware of both issues at the time of the trade. Certainly they were aware of his presence in the Mitchell Report.
Could be...but I don't see the point in diminishing your guy and bashing the other guy's agent. It's the inverse of that old, tired saying - you have to say something, so you need to say something nice. And saying that you think you got a good pick for the money just means you think there's a good chance the agent underpriced his player, doesn't it?
re: the Orioles, I understand that you're calling BS, and I think you're right. But you can't expect them to say that they drafted the fifth-best pitcher available to save $3MM, that's just silly.
His statement is pretty straightforwardly testable, eight
Man, it is POURING down rain in dowtown Baltimore right now. Maybe he starts with the light-tower destroying homer?
According to both your metrics and UZR, 2008 was a down year in the field last year as well, falling from an elite level to pedestrian...the data definitely looked worrisome. FWIW, UZR has him among the best in baseball at any position again this year.
He's fun to watch.
Just a weird choice. Bringing Gwynn home just drives home that this is a non-baseball decision.
Who's making the decisions in San Diego now, anyway?
I would imagine the Orioles would be hard pressed to pass on Grant Green. I know nobody wants to draft for need, but with a player of his talent available, I'd think you'd have to really fall in love with an arm to add another one to a system with three or four elite pitching prospects and no solution at either middle infield slot.
Or am I missing something...is he not going to stick at SS?
I'm looking forward to seeing Wieters, but if we're going to cherry-pick his May stats, you might also note that Greg Zaun's May line is .400/.455/.567 at, you know, the major league level. :)
Of course, the .400 OPS in April obscures this...
Thanks! I had no idea he was tiny.
that is interesting.
I wonder, though, why April should be predictive. If the fluctuations in the HR rate were truly random, in 12 seasons of data, you'd expect one or more false signals from the April data.
The absence of a false signal seems to suggest that, each season, there is something real that has changed - points of emphasis for the umpires on the strikezone, new park(s), or...the baseball itself.
great, thanks! Hope to see Erbe on tomorrow's report!
in the April vs the full season numbers, you should probably be looking at April vs. the rest of the year, not April vs. the full year, including April. If you assume that April = 1/6 of the season (it isn't, quite, but I don't want to crunch it...) you still get the result that the full season trends the same way as April (although less so...as you'd expect, 1 month is more volatile than 5 months).
Anyway, here's what I get...sorry for the lack of html skills:
Year April % changeSeason season ex-april
1996 1.150 1.094 1.083
1997 0.944 -18% 1.024 1.040 -4%
1998 0.976 3% 1.041 1.054 1%
1999 1.143 17% 1.138 1.137 8%
2000 1.281 12% 1.172 1.150 1%
2001 1.168 -9% 1.124 1.115 -3%
2002 0.953 -18% 1.043 1.061 -5%
2003 1.047 10% 1.071 1.076 1%
2004 1.087 4% 1.123 1.130 5%
2005 0.947 -13% 1.032 1.049 -7%
2006 1.154 22% 1.109 1.100 5%
2007 0.920 -20% 1.020 1.040 -5%
2008 0.896 -3% 1.005 1.027 -1%
2009 1.082 21% ??
Why would anyone talk about Riverfront or Three Rivers with such sentiment? Or Shea Stadium, for that matter? We're talking about the stadium that replaced The House That Ruth Built. The field that Gehrig and DiMaggio and Mantle played on.
There is no other park with the on-the-field history of the dear departed Yankee Stadium.
yes, you really should. Now.
....would make for part-timers working harder on game day. I imagine you'd want to have those writers produce an article for each team's fans. On its face, it seems like a good model for the employers and a lousy one for the writers.
Well, it's kind of funny to worry about what isn't being written in a medium that has collapsing readership. The gamer isn't reaching an audience, so it's disappearance isn't likely to be a seismic event for the public.
As the traditional beat writer disappears, the pro leagues and pro clubs will be well-served by working more closely with the bloggers...and the beat writers who become bloggers.
Ruben Rivera c. 1995 was the best ballplayer I'd ever seen. He could do anything, other than handle a demotion to AAA.
I like stories.
Yeah, I saw this discussion of balanced vs. unbalanced as a poor read of the data. A team that is 1st/ 4th reads as balanced and that\'s more likely to be successful than a team that is unbalanced, where they are in the bottom half in one of the categories. Well, sure 1/4 is better than 1/12. Would probably be more accurate to say that teams that are better at run prevention are more likely to play in October...one should at least compare that to the splits between QERA and DER.
Equally fishy is the discussion of whether to include \"balanced\" teams that were really bad. There\'s no meaningful reason to exclude them, except to polish up the conclusion you want to make.
But the article\'s discussion on the marginal value of runs prevented is solid. I\'m not sure I understand why the curves are so different at different RS levels...maybe we should be talking about runs prevented as a % of runs scored. Would that resolve the differences among the curves?
Thanks for a thought-provoking piece.
dangit...I know they were mentioned somewhere....
Adam Jones was on his way to an excellent rookie year when he was injured. Here\'s the monthly numbers, from BBREF:
April .700 OPS
May .585 OPS (ugh!)
June .804 OPS
July .780 OPS
Aug - 2 games played, irrelevant .909 OPS
Sep - .642
It sure seemed like he was progressing nicely, until he was injured. He still needs to show some plate discipline.
The Markakis comps were discussed briefly by KG, at the end of this piece:
Add Dave Trembley to the list. There\'s the expectation that the Orioles will stink somewhat less this year, and Trembley\'s so far been a poor in-game manager, IMO. I\'d say there\'s some risk there, if the O\'s end up taking a step backward rather than forward. I suppose it\'s not at the same level as the above, and the O\'s camp appears to be a big lovefest for now...but there\'s definitely a risk of missed expectations here.
Where would Aubrey Huff rank at 1B, since it looks like he\'ll mostly be playing there.
Really, he lost his speed because he\'s heavy-legged? I thought it was the 84 leg injuries.
Piazza wasn\'t as bad as people think or thought. Throwing is not the only thing a catcher does back there.
It would be a good thing, but bear in mind the regular scouts think he\'s a great player, too. There\'s no dissent that I\'ve seen.
Carlos Silva, maybe?
Age 20 A ball - 99K/164IP, 5.4 K/9
Age 21 A+ 82/176, 4.2
Age 22 AA 100/180, 5.0
Age 20 A 49/86 5.12
-Age 21 A 73/94 7.0
-Age 21 A+ 35/56 5.6
Age 22 AA 72/148 4.4 (ignoring 17 innings of A+ where he was close to 9 K/9)
In a quick look, Bergesen\'s minor-league record looks better on H/9 by a lot, and a little worse than Silva\'s freakishly good BB/9 numbers. Don\'t know if the H/9 is reflective of a big difference in parks or defenses, though.
The Orioles would welcome Pauley as a strike-throwing AAAA pitcher, since they have an abundance of AAAA pitchers who don\'t throw a lot of strikes. I gather it\'s a point of emphasis: Uehara, Hendrickson (except for last year)...along with the improved defense it makes sense in a let\'s-not-stink-so-unbearably-while-we-wait-for-the-talent kind of way.
The O\'s do have Quiroz in the system as the prototypical catch-and-throw backup. Of course, if the Orioles can\'t hold runners on a bit better, if doesn\'t matter much how good a guy\'s arm is...
/end Orioles OCD comments.
Perhaps he meant \"go the other way\" as toward zero (the mean) and not into negative territory.
Anyway, you\'re quite right of course.
\"Ozzie hopes for a fully functional Colon\"
That\'s funny...I thought the hard-hit balls comment is probably the most accurate thing that he said in the entire piece. Or course, Rice hit a lot of hard hit balls and a lot of softly-hit balls, and a lot in between. He put the ball in play. And what more can you ask, really, than that?
All snarkiness aside, a side point: I\'m not sure we want to live in a world where beat writers don\'t vote for their very very good hometown players for the HOF. There\'s nothing wrong with that.
too bad...the first sentence was the beginning of a really good satire.
I do agree with you, though I\'d rather have read the satire.
Actually, I think you can point to a shift in voter attitudes as the steroid scandal unfolded.
The counting stats had begun to seem much too low for a HOF player, but if you invalidate the steroid era, you might think that his counting stats are good enough.
If you were that kind of person.
I don\'t like the generational argument, much...do you have anything to support it? (I have nothing to support my counter-theory, mind you.)
I have an awfull collection of talent with me on 9/26. Bobby Shantz is the player I can safely call \"very good.\" Buechele, Gedman, Thurman Tucker and Dave Martinez are the best position players, and none of them managed an OPS+ of 100.
Brian Shouse and Doug Sisk complete the \"better than replacement value\" portion of the team, and I\'d still have 8 pitchers and 4 fielders to find, plus a bench. Yeesh.
Oh, it\'s just a regular business? I\'m going to go start a competitor in Fort Lauderdale! Oh, what\'s that? I\'m not allowed to do that? MLB is a consortium protected from competition by an exemption from the law that applies to businesses across the country? Wow, who knew...I guess that means it\'s not just a business like 7-11.
Joe is right...it\'s a blight.
Reportedly, the majority stake of Rogers Communications passes to a family trust, so the family will continue to control the Blue Jays (indirectly) for now.
Hicks and his brother both had radio companies, which became AMFM, which was bought by Clear Channel in 2000. TH was vice-chair of Clear Channel, but it was run the founding Mays family. Hicks was one of the potential buyers in the LBO of Clear Channel in 2006, but, err....someone else \"won\" that deal. I don\'t know if he\'s still involved now that it is going private.
Moores is currently Chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Carter Center, here\'s a full bio:
Has Rodriguez forgiven the Orioles (or vice versa) from the ugly breakdown in negotiations before 2004?
he was 41 years old! In his age 40 season, he posted a 141 OPS+...one of the 5 best age-40 seasons in MLB history. At age 39, he was hurt bit posted another of his usual excellent OPS+, 139, in 97 games. At age 38, he posted a 160 OPS+, another top 10 performance...
Hell, his meager 64 RC in 1004 is still among the top 10 among 41 year-olds. Manny\'s only 36!
oh, so in reply to my own question...the question I want to ask is, was it an unusual number of Type A/B FAs that were not offered arbitration this year? Or is this more or less par for the course?
Two points -
1) The economy is taking a much more serious toll than you seem to believe. Not only are revenues going to decline (or increase less than forecast, in the Yankees\' case), but the owners are all far less rich than they were 18 months ago, and will be unwilling or perhaps not liquid enough to carry a negative cash-flow operation for long.
2) You couldn\'t give us the complete list? Or a lik?
Is the Adam Loewen experiment officially over?
I would think that a better test of protection would focus on pitch-around or intentional walk situations. Hard to make the case for exactly what that is, but two outs / man on second and men on second and third would be a start.
The sample would be too small to address the Manny situation, but it would be interesting to see what the pitch f/x data says.