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Lagares was hurt a lot last year, but when he's been healthy, he's hit adequately for a center fielder. I think he deserves a shot at the Mets' CF job.
This is a good question. I'd be interested to know this as well.
Say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
So what do you see happening to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Ramirez">Jose Ramirez</a></span> when Lindor arrives? A position change? A trade? A move to the bench, into a utility role?
Okay, but if you were to run those numbers with a staff full of worm killers - like, say, 5 starters who each have a GB rate of 50% or higher. This would lead to more balls being hit to the shortstop, more double play opportunities, and greater value for Ryan, yes?
Oh my bad.
Okay they're not hitting any better, but they'd have to be in the lineup more, and consequently able to contribute to the offense more often.
At this point, who even knows if Montero will hit enough to stick at first base.
I agree with your take on the Young signing, but don't you think Sandy could have had him for less?
I can't believe that Reynolds is washed up. He's just too young.
Well you told Behemoth that differing training methods are a part of why starters, as recently as the 70s & 80s, handled workloads we now would consider abusive. Now I know that nobody's going to revive those methods so as to get 40 starts or 300 innings out of a starting pitcher - there's too much money to be lost by risking him that way over a 162 game season.
But a team that's in a tight pennant race might be tempted to do it over the closing weeks of the season, if it means their ace is going every 4th day and throwing 140 pitches, whereas their rivals are only able to run their ace out there every 5th day, for 100-110 pitches.
So would that mean that a team could revive old timey training methods and get more starts and longer outings from their starters? Seems like an advantage to whichever team can make such an idea work.
Well that's clearly not the case. I mean seriously, what color is the sky on Planet Hutton? As a matter of fact, I'd argue that the opposite is true; rising home run totals led more batters to swing for the fences more often, which, in turn, has led to an increase in strikeouts that has benefited pitchers to the detriment of hitters. The numbers do seem to bare me out, don't they?
Of course there's no evidence. How WOULD you prove a thing like that? But the fact remains that Jose had a career year when he stood to profit from it the most, and once the money was made, his performance regressed to career norms. Is it possible for that to be coincidental? Sure it is. Likely? Well as a Mets fan who watched Jose play for 9 years, I'll go on record that it's improbable.
Apples and oranges. Reyes isn't and never was the player Wright is. I think every intelligent Mets fan knew that Reyes turned it on and had a career year in his walk year, and that he'd regress to career norms once he had a long term contract somewhere, and that's exactly what happened. Wright, otoh, improved this year, but has had better years, and has always been a better all around player than Reyes. Plus he brings leadership to the team. So if Alderson's going to open up and spend money on only one of them, Wright's significantly more worth it than is Reyes.
Noe looking at Dickey - well that's a totally different deal. Dicky's older and there's just no way we can expect him to still be getting it done when Alderson's rebuilt this club. He has trade value, though - I'll bet there are numerous contenders who are looking to win now, and who'll deal some prospects for a starter like him.
Meh. Not a big deal. All the complaining about Iglesias’ psyche is much ado about nothing. If a 2-for-28 player gets butthurt that his team takes the bat out of his hands with a game on the line, then he's obviously too delicate to handle the psychological rigors of MLB.
What the Mets need most is help in the bullpen.
Well come on, we all know that Beane has pursued power bats relentlessly the past two offseasons, and has found that major leaguers who have other options really don't want to play for the Oakland A's. And being that Yoennis Céspedes isn't a major leaguer and Manny has no other options, that's who he signed.
I don't even get how they can know so little. I mean the players were all fans, as kids, and most fans I know know something of the game's history. So how do they not know?
I've thought about it. I think Bay would hit better in the Bronx, and Burnett would pitch better in Flushing.
I agree. And you know what, while I'm at it, I looked up his Tigers teammate Lance Parrish's career numbers and found that they're pretty comparable to those of Ted Simmons, with, if memory serves, superior defense.
What about Lou Whitaker? I'd say that he's a widely overlooked HoF candidate.
But are they really rebuilding? After the extension with Danks?
I met Bobby Valentine during his time with the Mets. It was Sept 2001. The Towers had gone down, my Mets were wearing police & fireman ballcapsb in game, and I was looking for something useful that I could do, in the wake of such an incomprehensible tragedy. I heard on the radio that the Shea Stadium parking lot was being used as a loading dock for crates of food going into lower Manhattan to feed the workers digging through the wreckage at Ground Zero. So I went and volunteered to load and unload crates. Spent an afternoon there, working up a sweat.
And Bobby V. was the foreman of the work crew. When I finished for the day, he slapped me on the shoulder and thanked me for coming down.
Okay, Gossage should shut up about Rivera already, now that he's in the Hall. I will grant you that. But having said that, I'm just not seeing how a comparison of Gossage's and Rivera's numbers that places Mo's numbers above Goose's can not be taken with a grain of salt.
However much Gossage belabors the point, the fact remains that he really DID have pitch with more pressure and really DID have to get more outs, and any statistical comparison between them ought to take that into account.
I wonder if Brandon Inge or Kevin Kevin Kouzmanoff would benefit from a change of scenery. And even if they don't hit, they can only improve the Brewers' infield defense.
"Harris won a World Series in his first year at the helm of the Washington Senators in 1927." No, the Yankees won the AL pennant and the WS in '27. The 1927 Yankees are widely regarded as the best team in MLB history, in fact.
God said "Let there be light." Kirk Gibson said "say please."
More importantly to my way of looking at it, they've long had better luck with inhouse solutions than with pricey free agents. So Scutaro means SS is not an area of need for next year, and with Iglesias it can be covered for years to come.
I'm not. The Astros made it to the Series with Adam Everett at SS, after all.
Why in the name of Sweet Fanny Adams would the Redsox go after Jose Reyes?? They've got Marco Scutaro keeping the seat warm for Jose Iglesias, ferchrissake.
Ahh yes, 2002 - when we were young and innocent and only just beginning to realize what an idiot Joe Morgan is.
Yes, but shouldn't he have given some indication of who the Rockies offer the Astros to get the deal done?
If their second half swoon was caused by a rise in BABIP and ERA, then it would seem to me that improving the defense is the most important thing this team can do. Or am I missing something?
You know I always kind of suspected that the Yankees might have rushed him, and that he may turn out to have more game than he'd shown. So I'm not totally surprised that he's begun hitting, but who saw all this power coming?
That's fine. But I maintain that his numbers this year, combined with what he did in the minors give me basis for an educated guess as to what he'll do if he gets the ABs, and 30+ with an average of .280+ looks about right. And I find it highly likely that he'll get the ABs, because clearly Terry Collins wants him in the lineup.
Irrational? Well let's see - crunching the numbers since 07/23, I find that since that date he's given the Mets a slash line of .284/.342/.497, in a park that plays against his strengths, and might I add that this is in line with his minor league numbers. Maybe projecting 30+ HRs EVERY year was pushing it, but that figures to be a typical Lucas Duda year, given the ABs.
But the proof is in the pudding - he'll start, if for no other reason, because Collins likes him as much as I do.
Duda is certainly going to start for the Mets next year. There's no doubt about that, and he can hit. And bear in mind the park that Citifield is - which means that he can hit more than he looks like he can.
Also worth noting is that Duda hit his first HR of the year on July 23, and has hit 9 since then. What this tells me is that he'll be good for 30+ HRs every year with adequate playing time.
Sign Fielder? Why? The O's already hits home runs in bunches. No, what this team needs to do is upgrade the defense. Shoddy defense is the reason why the young pitchers on this team are all struggling. Moving Reynolds to DH will help in that regard. Then give Davis a shot at an infield corner (I know, he has the rep as a quad A guy, but after they traded for him, they have to at least give him a chance at some playing time or write the deal off as a waste).
Anyway if this team wants to make a splash in the free agent market, Jose Reyes is a guy who has more to offer them then Fielder - on base ability (something they lack) and passable middle infield defense.
Last year Omar almost swung a deal to send Castillo to the Cubs. I believe the Mets were to get Milton Bradley. I don't remember what happened to prevent it.
My understanding is that Maicer Izturis, Alberto Callaspo and Brandon Wood are fighting over the third base job with the Angels. Izturis was favored coming into camp, but he hasn't hit enough to lock up the job. Any info on that situation?
He's all that stopped the Yankees from trading away a truckload of young talent for Johann Santana.
I was actually thinking of suggesting something similar; specifically, an effort by sabermetricians from across the industry to work together at taking apart each of their defensive metrics, analyze them unflinchingly and impartially, and determine which ones are more accurate than which others.
They each, presumably, take the same data and try to produce accurate information for us in response to the same question. But looking at the wide divergence in the conclusions reached, we can only conclude that someone is doing better than someone else. I think we need, once and for all, to know who.
It'll probably never happen, but it's a nice idea, innit?
Lee to the Yankees is the deal that absolutely MUSN'T get done. I mean sure, let them go on signing the biggest free agent every offseason, and eventually they'll be the Rock or Hulk Hogan, and every other team will be the Iron Sheik or George "the Animal" Steele. So yeah, I honestly believe that it's for the good of the game that he sign elsewhere.
I'm intrigued by the idea of bringing back Johnson, but what's the matter with Henry Blanco as a backup catcher? He has arguably the best arm against the running game in the NL, gunning down base runners at or close to 50% year after year, and has torn up lefty pitching before, though I'll admit he didn't hit much last season. In fact, he could even work in a platoon with the left handed Josh Thole.
I agree. I mean Ben Molina? Why, with Kendall due back early next year and this season almost over?
Okay that all makes sense as reasons why he's no longer a Dodger, but I still don't understand why they didn't get anything for him. Looking at what he'll bring to the Chisox, wouldn't they have given up something of value, had the Dodgers asked?
I'm probably going to get flamed for this, but when I see people fall all over themselves praising Mariano Rivera, I always wonder how the closers I watched play when I was a kid would have fared if bullpen usage was handled in their day the way it is now.
I can think of three offhand who I'm pretty sure could have posted comparable career numbers - specifically Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers & Bruce Sutter. They (like all the closers back then) routinely pitched two or even three innings for a save, and seldom were called into a game unless the opposition was threatening to score. Imagine them each being called in to get three outs with no one on base.
My point is that if you say that Rivera is on a par with guys like that, I'll go along with you. But I often hear Rivera held up as the greatest relief pitcher ever, standing head and shoulders above guys like those I just named, and I'm not so sure about that.
Well I'm not a fan of the team, so I'm not going to pretend to know more than you do, but I do seem to remember that the last few Baseball Prospectuses indicated that the Astros were trying to contend with a team that was due for an overhaul.
You're right in that Wade assembled many of the pieces of the current Phillies team, but at the same time, the Astros have been due to rebuild for a number of years, and Wade's ignored that.
I'm bothered by the whitewashing of Steinbrenner's image. During the 70's through the 90's, everyone knew him for what he was - a cruel. capricious bully, one whose financial resources and will to win far exceeded his knowledge of the game. At best, Yankee fans regarded him as a necessary evil (I'm a Mets fan, so he wasn't even that to me). But it was over the past decade, as he entered his doddering old age that the media began to treat all that awful behavior as though it had never happened. And now we have a mean spirited, bullying tyrant who is remembered as having been a far better man than he ever was, and credited with work he never did (we all know that Gene Michael had a lot more to do with building those 90's Yankee teams than did Steinbrenner, don't we?).
Exactly. Torre's history of picking a reliever he likes and overusing him is well known (why do you think the Yankees put the Joba Rules in place?), and he's now doing the same thing to his catcher (Russel Martin has played in 66 games, starting 64 out of 76, and remember he was hurt early, which means thast he has rested almost not at all since returning to the team). Does anyone else remember when Martin was thought of as a perennial All Star? This is something any manager ought to know better than to do, but the fact that Torre was a catcher himself makes it even more inexcusable.
But you don't have to believe me. Look at Willie Randolph for a glimpse at how learning to manage on Torre's coaching staff preps a guy.
Well this is true as far as it goes. But let's imagine Mariano Rivera starting his career in 1975. He's competing against athletes who are less conditioned than is the case now, and who are drawn from a smaller pool, but every player against whom he'd compete would be in the same position. And he'd have had to routinely enter games in the 8th, if not earlier, with runners in scoring position.
You said he'd have held his own under those conditions, and I agree. But I don't think that anyone would be arguing that that Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer ever, as they now do.
No it shouldn't, but I've been flamed by Yankee fans for not genuflecting sufficiently at the altar of St. Mo, so ya never know.
Now re the numbers concerning saves of more than an inning: That is interesting. It's information like that that makes the BP as useful as it is. But he still doesn't work as hard for his saves, or under as arduous conditions, as Gossage, Fingers & Sutter did.
Now on the one hand, you're right, he probably would have held his own in the 70's & 80's. But on the other, holding his own among Gossage and Fingers is only so impressive, and the the fact that I'm less impressed by that than Yankee fans are is why I get flamed.
"superior to the five enshrined relievers (Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, and Goose Gossage)" - I don't know about this. I keep wondering what Fingers, Sutter & Gossage would have done had they spent their entire careers coming in to get three outs in the 9th with no one on base, and collect a save. I'm also pretty sure that Rivera's numbers would have suffered had he regularly entered games in the 8th or even the 7th, with runners on base. Of course I'll probably be flamed for saying this, and get the minus sign clicked many times, but that's just my opinion.
Cook isn't the Rockies' 5th starter. He lost starts due to injury issues.
Hopefully he'll get traded someplace where he'll be appreciated. And you know what, he would have been a much better for for the Mets than Matthews, as starved for a lefty bat as they are.
The A's front office is delusional if the think Chavez will be good for as many as 200 ABs anywhere on the field. He can be injured by a dirty look at this point in his career (though they might have had a better chance had they left DH open for him).
Injuries were a big part of the problem for the Mets last year, but injuries aren't why Pelfrey regressed, and I don't buy that a bad knee is what went wrong with Perez (did anyone else notice that he didn't complain about pain until after he'd demonstrated his inability to find home plate with a road map? Yeah right).
No, I think the biggest problem with the Mets pitching staff last season was that they were badly coached. Why else does a team playing in a big roomy park like Citifield lead the league in walks? The staff was much better when they were coached by Rick Peterson.
btw, while we're looking at free agents, I think the Mets missed out by not signing Greg Zaun when he was available. I also think that Russell Branyan can give them a boost to the offense at either 1B or LF, and will hold his own defensively at either of those positions. If he can hit 31 HRs in Safeco, then he should be able to handle Citifield. He also draws a ton of walks (all hail the Three True Outcomes).
Interesting that Delgado managed to get in 538 ABs in '07 & 598 in '08 while being injured consistently for three years. How much do you figure he'd have played those two years without the owies?
Well okay, maybe it's not as entertaining as talking baseball, but if SC's point is valid (and it is) then you're doing your decade retrospective a year early, which does sound like a big deal to me.
I'd settle for a slugging SS.
Yes, but he left out Rudolph Giuliani.