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Lock him there in 2014 and call his show Hearts of Darkness.
Would the #2 player in the Cubs 2010 system make their top 10 today?
Don't forget about Danny Duffy in deeper leagues.
Please cover Mike Moustakas in a future edition. The medium to fringe selections are more helpful.
Great news for a genuinely weird man. Hope Kevin left you his Rolodex.
Oops, tried to copy the answer link on my phone and accidentally flagged this question. Please disregard.
In Soriano's defense, his fielding is better this year: http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXsXXsoriaal01-field.shtml&t=all_advanced_fielding
Data from 200 keepers disappeared from the PFM with the update. Is there a way to get that information back without checkmarking all of them again?
Hold on, The Tree of Life is much better upon a 2nd viewing. Check out Valhalla Rising to cleanse your palate.
Who won the 2011 prediction contest?
The URL was http://www.firstgiving.com/fun-fraiser/Up-and-In-for-doctors-without-borders
The best projection systems are 70% accurate. Imagine having a time machine that was correct within 3 standard deviations. You would still be wrong on at least 5 major leaguers each year.
Will the Astros be the only team outside the White Sox with four two star players?
Would you rather keep Ackley or Jason Kipnis in a deep league?
What were the standings of the Doctors without Borders prediction contest?
-3 is not "like crazy". That's not even enough to hide your comment.
Try saying Derek Jeter is the best defensive SS then count your minuses.
My respect for Wilson skyrocketed (aside from the straight edge stuff). It's no secret the Cubs are targeting him over Pujols and Fielder. It's starting to look like a better investment.
Derek came in at 145th out of 197 people. That's roughly $725 that he has to give out not counting the $200 in prizes to entice people to join.
I signed up for a few more days so I imagine that Fanduel made their money back on this clever promotion.
I can't speak for everyone but I'm not quitting until I profit. Or lose my $10 outlay.
Wow, this is quite a bombshell to drop on Draft Day.
It's the equivalent to seeing a politician admit to lewd pictures before a holiday weekend.
Back to back references to Dazed and Confused and The Wire. Brilliant!
Not a buffalo?
Thanks. It was too early in the morning to sort a spreadsheet and perform my own analysis.
The maturity problems I noted are probably just a byproduct of remaining in the public eye. That's why Cal Ripken Jr. and Andre Dawson are such anomalies.
Is it a coincidence that the 3 superstars rushed to the majors all had maturity problems?
It's not a rhetorical moral judgment. Common sense says that younger players have deeper careers. Is there a study to determine if rookie teenagers have a higher disappointment rate?
In related news, the Brewers lost in the 10th.
Thanks for the remarkable opportunity to help a Nobel Peace Prize winning charity. There are tons of great prizes of every type.
The TAB export moves the file Notepad. This makes it much easier to copy and paste all the data in Excel.
The percentages do not show up on an iPhone for Starlin Castro.
Great article. True Cubs fans root for Mark Prior's resurgence.
The PECOTA weighted means aren't the final number either. This will become more obvious when the player cards come out. PECOTA lists a range and beta of provided outputs.
Let's say Player A and Player B both have a weighted mean of .300/.400/.500. Player A has done it 10 years in a row. Player B has a 50% chance of going .200/.300/.400 and 50% chance of going .400/.500/.600, MVP/Time's Man of the Year.
Who do you take? Probably Player 1 early and Player 2 later in the draft unless you can adopt more risk.
Don't focus on PECOTA's stat lines. Look at how players compare against each other.
Is there a way to remove a player that has been checked off as kept? Last year I accidentally marked Wesley Wright instead of David Wright and I had to input 199 players again.
Wow, how much nicer is it for the PFM to save your leagues instead of saving the bookmarks elsewhere? Great tweak!
Suggestion for 2012: Net saves = saves - blown saves
WGN stopped showing most Cubs night games after they purchases a large stake of the WB network. They needed the Chicago market to boost the ratings. That is how many people were stuck with The Jamie Kennedy Xperiment instead of baseball.
Now they show many games on the Comcast Sports Network. Thank goodness for MLB.TV, blackout dates notwithstanding.
I'm only commenting to see what my subscriber number is.
Thank you very much. Excel's VLOOKUP function will make organizing all this data much easier.
Breaking News: CDC to investigate emerging flu epidemic. Thousands of baseball fans simultaneously fall sick on Monday.
Welcome, Jason! I've lurked at your other forum for years. Glad to have you aboard.
The dollar figures provide a ton of context. Solid improvement.
Welcome aboard, Jason! You do Brooklyn proud!
Next time you're in London, check out the bar called The Texas Embassy.
I can't speak for Kevin but Brett Jackson has another season to go. That year of uncertainty may cost him a star.
Hee Seop Choi and Corey Patterson were probably five star prospects one day.
Is the Fox cable battle accounted for in the ratings?
That concussion didn't help matters either. Let's hope for an Aaron Hill style resurgence next year.
As a Cubs fan, I've seen the damage that hasty personality trades can inflict (Milton Bradley, soon to be Carlos Zambrano).
Steve's comment was a lot more subtle than people seem to think. Everyone should take a deep breath and quandary Radmus onto their favorite 25 man roster.
If anyone should be offended, it is the dwarf community.
I understand the printer will not allow current PECOTA comments. How about weekly (or real-time) projections?
That would BP at the forefront again.
Most painful moments:
3) Catheter removal after getting hit by an ambulance
2) Broken back several years later
1) Game 6, 2003 NLCS in Wrigley Field
@ NYYanks826: Too soon!
Does Strasburg's rainout push his MLB debut to June 5th?
That's a better refresher on binomial distributions than most stat textbooks.
Networks trying to sign him to be a broadcaster. Fox gave an All-Star Game inning to his dog swimming in the San Fran bay.
I'm curious to see how this shakes out. I'll take over a team but I'm dubious there will be a huge statistical difference.
This article isn't advocating for a trade or predicting one will happen. It is pointing out how much value his contract provides the Rays. Point well made.
Oklahoma City is starting Derek Holland instead of Chris Tillman. Still a great matchup.
Here's an article idea for the 2011 edition: How about a quick review of the 10% and 90% outliers from PECOTA?
I'd also love to see a couple pages about breakouts that PECOTA got right and reasons why players missed.
Starting in May, I'd love a weekly article about positive and negative outliers vs. their PECOTA projections.
Is Player X really enjoying a 90% season or is it an unsustainable fluke?
I volunteer for any Beta tester position!
I don't understand all the consternation over a Beta release. I'd rather rummage through all the cards then wait another week for tweaked 2018 projections.
I'd rather have these Beta projections than nothing at all. Projecting someone to get a 3.74 ERA instead of a 3.89 ERA isn't the important part. Projecting a 3.74 vs. someone else with a 4.09 is the important part.
Keep in mind that the marginal costs are much higher for the print edition. Wiley is still paying for a ton of sunk costs even if they sell less books because people purchase the data online.
PECOTA has always tempered projections on rookies. Take a look at Chris Coghlan's card from last year. They're almost never fully slated for greatness because there's too high a risk they'll flame out. Remember when Delmon Young used to get Ken Griffey Jr. comparisons?
Cheat sheet at the end, please.
Kevin could order them but that would add precision instead of accuracy. The #3 guy at a position could easily end up at #8 by the end of the year.
You can look at the tiers as well as the ADPs. If you see that Billy Butler is going 6 rounds later than Youkilis, then you know you can wait for a slight downgrade. I much prefer tiers.
MLB on the iPhone was good when they offered your favorite team and another game per day. They updated it around August and it became stellar. Every video feed was available and the picture went from granulated to HD. Yeah, you'll need a battery pack to finish a game but it's better than any podcast at the gym.
A PECOTA card viewer and/or a simple article RSS feed would be very valuable. Charge non-subscribers and make steady improvements over time. We all need as many BP streams as possible!
Prince Fielder was 22 when he hit 28 home runs and 23 years old when he hit 50.
Huzzah, the book is ready! Quick question, any ETA for the PECOTA cards? I guess it will be a moot point once I get the book.
Thanks. I'm looking for a way to spend my time during the impending Washington DC snowpocalypse!
Thank you for the upgrade. Do you have a target date for the PECOTA cards?
Interesting approach and it feels intuitive. I'm curious to see where this goes with more variables thrown in.
Would it be that surprising to see Shields make a Wainwright style leap? He's certainly one of the safest health options in the majors.
He might not be on the A's but he'll still be close to the Angels.
I've been a Cubs fan my whole life. This level off mediocrity is still an improvement over recent history. If you need me, I'll be in the corner rocking back and forth in the fetal position.
What happens next year? Josh Vitters to replace Lee at 1st? Jay Jackson and Andrew Cashner in the rotation? I assume the Cubs will trade Theriot next offseason to open up space for Starlin Castro.
Merry Christmas, Christina. As long as you're in the holiday spirit, why don't you present us some of the site improvements everyone has been alluding to?
Does this expanding database mean that daily PECOTA updates are coming? A boy can dream.
What are likely to be the next medical breakthroughs?
What current career-threatening injuries will become inconveniences in the near future?
I would love to see two 1999 lists: 20/20 hindsight and the conventional wisdom view.
Quick question: is there a place to find the ERC for pitchers? That's the only baseball stat I can't find on the site. Thanks for all the hard work.
Wow, he's clearly kidding. Perhaps he should have said Yogi Berra instead of Redmond.
How about "The Full Utley"?
Ex: Brett Myers felt a hip twinge and has to go the full Utley.
Someone mentioned in another thread the Wieters\' AA park was an extreme pitchers park. Imagine that he got traded from Oakland to Texas.
Thanks for the transparency on the updates. One quick question: when is Clay\'s next scheduled update?
You voiced your displeasure and the staff responded. You are growing on people\'s nerves because you posted the similar complaints over ten times throughout the thread.
Imagine that you are at the checkout line of a department store. You complain to the manager and some shoppers nod in agreement. The crowd will walk away after you come back waving your receipt for the 14th time.
My first fantasy draft occurs on Saturday afternoon. I am not concerned that the pitching data will contain enough value by then for trustworthy reference.
I\'d rather have 80% of the players early than wait a few extra days for 100% of them.
Nate worked on this site well before he dipped his feather in politics. Check out this awesome article from his alma mater: http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0878/features/nate_silver.shtml
Thanks Nate! Did you pick President\'s Day on purpose?
I\'m glad baseball is cleaning up its act. That said, why doesn\'t anyone raise a stink when a football gets busted using steroids then wins an official Defensive Player of the Year trophy? It was the same season he was suspended for 25% of it! How can you help your team if you\'re not on the field?
My God. That Wieters projection jumped out at me. Nate Silver is nowhere near as optimistic about Chris Davis as anyone else. Please post any other curiosities in this thread.
Yankees, 6/156, 12/31
Chicago Cubs: Less depth, higher PECOTA peak for the starting nine.
My keeper league selections are due November 1st. Please post as much preliminary 2009 content as possible. We get to keep 20 out of 52 players.