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Lindor's success this season mostly happened over a few fluky weeks early on in the season. He has been quite bad with the bat outside of a few weeks. The frustrating thing is that he clearly has brought this on himself. He traded elite batting average for moderate power.
Lindor needs to revert back to what he is good at. Hopefully he will fail enough to make that decision. He is definitely worse at hitting today than he was last year. I have watched his at bats as opposed to cherry picking through stats. Watch him, it is not real prett - lots of bad swings at hittable pitches.
WAR is a poor way to compare Pujols to the other players in that list. Most of those other guys derived a bunch of value from their defense, whereas Pujols was primarily a 1B. A good 1B earns a fraction of the value that a good CF does. Those historic WAR values are even less legitimate when you consider the lack of data behind the defense - historic defense is nothing more than a crude approximation. The accurate way to compare him to those guys is to isolate the offense. Pujols is good enough that his stats speak for themselves. In fact, they are probably more impressive in raw form. He doesn't need qualifiers like most "stars". He is not the _____est _____ ever to _____ since _____ - he is an all-time great on his own merits.
He is getting old. It happens to us all... case solved.
That is an awfully big mistake!
Moncada will not play 3B this year, correct? Why not rank him at 2B?
I would never have guessed <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70917">Trea Turner</a></span> as #1!
Where is Baez?
Are you sure that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104794">Monte Harrison</a></span> is still a toolsy guy? I am aware of his prep background, but he doesn't seem like he runs much anymore.
After an actual, read... my gosh, you are a hack. How is there no mention of <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/nate_silver">Nate Silver</a>'s work? BP didn't unearth the increased <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> rate. Also dismissing contrary ideas as "conspiracy theories" - well that is a pretty hacky way to spin things as well, but at least you are consistent. One could call this a conspiracy theory as well, but why would I do that? Implying that one theory is scientific and the other is witchcraft is, for lack of a better term hacky - commonplace in the media, but you don't have to sink to those levels. Media does it because they know they are appealing to a very specific audience and their viewers/listeners want to hear it. If you are attempting to present scientific information, you are discrediting yourself by chalking up the other side of the argument as a conspiracy theory - but that is the easy thing to do!
This article was even more interesting when I read it at FanGraphs last week.
No catching prospect is a good bet to stick. It would be foolish to hand the job to a guy that has not proven that he can handle the MLB workload. If he ever contributes anything, then Cardinals will be fortunate.
I think he is safer than people want him to be. He hasn't been bad this year and he has built a bit of a track record. In any case, you don't want the Twins closer.
Kintzler had one walk last week. I agree that he is not an exciting option, but I can't imagine Belisle stealing any opportunities - he has worse control and all of the K issues of his counterpart, not to mention that he is nearly 37. Unless the Twins go with a hard-throwing type, Kintzler should be safe.
That is a stretch to praise the Braves for their scouting on the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104814">Alex Jackson</a></span> conversion. I don't know if anyone in baseball doesn't know that he was drafted as a catcher.
Re: Rubby DLR - I don't think that PRP (Platelet Rich Plasma or stem cells)has ever led to a successful outcome on a pitcher's UCL, which is the route that Rubby went. I am sure some average Joe might be able to get results from PRP, but I am very skeptical that his elbow will hold up. If he would have just underwent TJ, he would be nearing rehab at this point as well and would have a much brighter outlook.
I wonder if there is much significance to this. You hear it all the time and I am just not sure that it adds up to anything. I do not recall that being the common thread that ties together the elite starting pitchers.
I can't imagine Bellinger getting any time in CF. If the Dodgers are going to put a non-CF in CF, I think that Toles or Puig would be a better fit... or just Kike every day.
That guaranteed start against the Marlins today belongs to VV.
Impressive "not great" list!
Reasonable for you, not the other guy though!
More bad - he has shown flashes of figuring it out several times before... yet, he always reverts back to a pumpkin.
Early season trading is potentially the best time for a trade. If there is a new, or just bad owner in the league, then they are going to make some bad deals about now. If that owner does exist in your league, then you need to act before they have already melted down their team.
They are just K surgers...
Interesting contrast on the Abreu scouting reports. One has the CU as a 35 and the other a 60.
I don't see any ads
and a lot older and without the talent... but yes, he did hit a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>.
Above them - maybe on par with Reynaldo. Berrios is the only one of that group with much likelihood to contribute value to a fantasy team.
Thanks for confirming. I was hoping to use him myself... but not in Colorado!
I think this is likely. Didn't he end last year with some issues? I find young closers to be a very shaky commodity - it is not a particularly sustainable role for anyone.
I think McCarthy is slated for SD in LA. That is a far stretch from @ COL.
Nice research. I think your assumptions about how things "could" be are not worth much. For example, if Machado could be a great SS, then he would be... but he is not. Similar to how Correa will get moved off the position sooner than later. Putting a guy there is one thing, production is another. If a guy is not an anchor at SS for several seasons, then I would call him "not a shortstop". For me, the takeaway is not to get too excited about a prospect's defensive value unless that player appears to be a Lindor, Andrelton, etc.
This .265 career hitter in the minors can flat-out hit!
Nothing is as powerful a catalyst to a lack of understanding as a bad analogy. Chess can be analyzed as a decision tree - a series of moves. It is finite in that sense.
Baseball is not a series of moves and cannot be represented as a decision tree at all. The data is an approximation of what actually happens on the field. The computer analysis is completely different as will be the outcomes - which will not be nearly as significant. Don't oversell it...
Celebrate the fact that he has had a hell of career!
Glasnow's K-ceiling certainly surpasses Giolito's. The question is whether he will ever be able to throw strikes.
I thought that your take on Acuna was right on.
For sure it hurt him! I think the eventual distance between him and the position players above him could be enormous. He is a 40/40 ceiling guy vs some high-floor guys deriving half their value from defense.
I am ashamed of myself for nitpicking anything, because I always enjoy a good prospect list, but I think Moncada at #5 is really low. It could look really bad within a year.
You have my blessing to still be high on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52260">David Peralta</a></span>. He was awfully unhealthy last year and I am sure it impacted his production. A bad wrist and back sound terrible for hitting. I have zero certainty that he will be healthy this year, but the skill-set could be in tact...
You literally wrote a paragraph about yourself for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108012">Wander Javier</a></span>. I know that some flack has already been dispersed above, but... yeah.
That is what filler looks like I guess.
Wouldn't it be nice to see where Machado ranked among his peers at 3B? My three year projection is that Machado won't be a SS in three years.
Not a fan of the strike-throughs. Moncada has not been in the Red Sox organization for a while now. In a non-Sox-centric universe, this is just sloppy and hard to read.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67049">Manny Machado</a></span> certainly belongs in this group. I can understand the rationale for not having him in the re-draft rankings for 3B, but not in the long-term rankings.
Yes, I saw the sentence about it...
Thanks for the rational reply. I get that!
Well, I guess I am questioning the process then. Does that make a difference?
Exercising judgment is a far better idea than applying an arbitrary process.
I don't click on the links or subscribe to the content to read the intros. More often than not they are painful and tedious... It doesn't make me an idiot or wrong. We both know that Machado doesn't belong in the SS rankings.
Why? He is not slated to start at SS this year right? The only time he ever played SS was due to injury. There is a reason that people are mentioning it multiple times.
Kinsler is hard guy to pin down. Just when it looks like the power is trending towards 10, he hits 28 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>. Several years ago, he was settling is as a .260-ish hitter, but now he is in the .300 ballpark. Once know for his fragility, he now plays a full year regularly. Kinsler is sneakily at his three-year peak right now.
Are there any ground for the assertion that skinny players aren't durable? In fact, the Stanton, Calvin Johnson type of build seems far less durable.
Marte is pretty unique. It is not wise to compare anyone to him really. Marte is a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> monster, you can't project anyone to replicate that. Marte without the BABIP is not all that exciting.
I now see... I was not aware of the context which is clear below...
How does this get downvotes?
That makes sense. Thanks.
Why would you compare two guys with such a great discrepancy in relative value?
I think you are chasing your tail a bit here. There are three people involved in the transaction of taking a pitch, not just the hitter. The umpire and the count defines the actual strike zone on a given pitch, not Pitch/Fx. The most important part of a borderline pitch is the pitcher. You can't compare a Sale slider on the black to a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49127">Jered Weaver</a></span> fastball on the edge. The data is just not going to be real useful to you.
Of course plate discipline helps tremendously, you just don't have the numbers to support it... but that is OK! There are many observations which cannot be proven with a limited set of data.
Come on, man! No comment on Thames? You could have quadrupled your clicks...
You got Tucker's slash lines backwards.
He was supposed to be great with the glove in his Cuban life...
It seems odd to not mention any concerns about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108097">Kyle Lewis</a></span> hitting mechanics. It seems that all pre-injury information was centered around that.
I don't understand Puk's ceiling as a #3. That sounds like a TOR ceiling to me. What am I missing? I get the health, command and makeup concerns but those don't take his ceiling down that far do they? Everyone has risks...
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=109149">Daulton Jefferies</a></span> with the 80 smile, really not sure how you missed that.
This is a strangely dismissive staff considering the content is a subscription model. I am simply saying that I don't know why you keep repeating how bad the system is. Why not just write up the players? You already get an intro and a conclusion for narratives.
It is bad, but the write-up makes it seem even worse. It was anything but objective. Half of the profiles reference how bad the system is as well as the lead and the conclusion.
It is a poor choice to attempt to characterize A-Gon by his age 34 season. The actual <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31485">Adrian Gonzalez</a></span> averages .290/28 per season in a non-juiced ball era, which makes for quite the different comp. Gonzalez was regularly a legitimate MVP candidate over his excellent career.
.285/18 is more like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57988">Eric Hosmer</a></span> without the steals, which isn't anything to be excited about.
He is an easy keep in that format. At least he has an upside...
Nothing like a dick-high breaking ball! Sure, some might say thigh-high or belt-high, but I like it.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=29951">Cannonball Titcomb</a></span>!
It seems really weird that there is never any concrete discussion of tools. Personally, that is what I am most interested in hearing about.
Velocity usually comes back. Command is the thing that lags.
Well done write-up! Much better than the Braves piece.
Why are you using <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RS</span></a> instead of R?
I get that this is a safe space for praise, but do people actually think that I am wrong?
More objective analysis and less awkward humor would be better. I am certain that I am not alone in this, even if it is an unpopular comment.
This was a hard read. The ratio or rhetoric to content was very high.
Kind of silly to take a quick jab at stat-line scouters, then rattle off a couple more stats, no?
I approve of you your Tebow comment!
Based on what? A handful of at bats...
Nothing is a sure thing, but there is zero reason to be concerned. If anything, I am happy to see some initial struggles. At least he will have some motivation to improve.
Taillon seems like a notable omission.
Why include an 0-2? I get the humor of mentioning Smith (technically I get it), but there are players that actually earned it.
At least we got the Giolito update though!
Vlad Jr has to be the player of the day with 4 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a>!
The White Sox are giving their 1st round pick an aggressive assignment? Shocking!
The whole golden age of shortstops thing is overplayed. How many SS are legitimate MVP candidates? Bogaerts and Lindor maybe, but not really. They are young, but not exceptionally anything - especially when you consider the rate at which balls have been leaving the yard in 2016.
Just a few years ago, we had peak Hanley, Tulo and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Reyes">Jose Reyes</a></span> who were all monsters. We also had Jeter, good <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51421">Alexei Ramirez</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jimmy+Rollins">Jimmy Rollins</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45945">Ian Desmond</a></span>, good <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57278">Starlin Castro</a></span> and a bunch of other productive flukes and veterans. There was nothing special about that group, but it illustrates that SS was not previously some abyss.
You don't think that Lopez had some "struggles" against the Dodgers? He definitely had some "hiccups" - it wasn't all "smooth sailing", but there were some "positives".
That is great news for O'Neill. He was able to erase doubts about his hit tool from a single viewing. Well done, Tyler!
Goodwin is quite a bit toolsier.
Excellent piece. As some of the others stated, this was worth reading to completion.
That is poor analysis - don't put anything into it. The ceiling listed is an easy HOF guy if had a healthy career - still might be with all the injuries. The floor is a guy on a 40HR pace.
Please stop talking about yourself so much. This isn't the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Crawford">Chris Crawford</a></span> update.
I am guessing bullpen - would like to see him start, but hard to see it happening. They need help in the bullpen badly. Their rotation could be about 7 deep within a month when some guys start to return from the DL. Then you can also factor in that many have always pegged him as a bullpen arm in the first place.
If you weren't aware, R Lopez is a household name everywhere that there is prospect coverage.
Kind of weird that there is no down vote for moderator posts, no? I don't see how you can dismiss May when it is early June lol.
RE: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102578">Adam Engel</a></span> - sending him down immediately got his season on track, no? Hard to call that ridiculous.
That sounds perfectly believable. A 34 game hit streak in AA wouldn't be that impressive in it's own right.
Why not split the three start tier to crate a two star tier? There is a clear split between 5 and 6 IMO.
I don't claim to be a defensive metrics expert (or even an advocate), but I don't think Correa is a good SS by the data - just FYI.
Kind of interesting that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100631">Byron Buxton</a></span> had the non-pitching equivalent of this start to his own season.
The Twins seem to be good at drafting, but there may be some issues with development in the upper minors.
Bregman is not a standout SS prospect. There have always been whispers of him moving off the position.
New managers are probably afraid to make calls - they don't want to give the critics anything to talk about. Once these managers establish themselves (or not), their true colors will show.
The best explanation is #1 - Obviously the pop time is wrong. #3 is certainly not the answer. Do the math. You think 3 feet at 85 MPH makes the difference? It is much more likely that Statcast does a poor job of calculating pop times. Pop times have never been a science to calculate, there has always been estimation about where to stop and start.
These would be better without the condescending tone masked as humor.
I did not enjoy this advertisement. I guess the upside is that you can offer free membership if you run enough of this trash!
Personally, I would greatly appreciate less of the attempted humor. I know this isn't my personal article and I only get one vote but, I don't think it adds anything at all.
it is probably more like a 30X40
You don' need a lawsuit to do the right thing. The White Sox should just can Williams. At the point where you are creating an environment where people do not want to work for your organization, you are not doing your job as GM.
Fathers are not a protected class, but if Williams shot off his mouth like that at a different demographic he would already be gone.
The readers here and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31351">Adam LaRoche</a></span> likely have nothing in common in regard to their work environments. I don't think playing in the big leagues and pushing papers or driving a cab are quite the same thing.
I don't think "arbitrary" is the word you are looking for regarding the beginning and end of the season. They are pretty well-defined and accepted by all.
Absolutely. There are only a few men walking the face of the earth that could realistically go 20/30. He is risky, but I don't see how anyone can question the upside.
Bauers was well inside of BA's top 100. I would argue that he is quite well-known for that reason alone. When you factor in that he is pretty unlikely to ever generate ant value at 1B he is about as bad an investment as they come. Dominic Smith-esque.
1-3-1 is a win? Do you also referee boxing matches?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48219">Jake McGee</a></span> was not projected as a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RP</span></a> by most experts - as reflected in his "starting every game of his minor league career". He would not have been a top prospect if he was a RP spec. It is really easy to look back on a guy that has really never been healthy and say that everyone saw it coming, but I don't think they did. He moved to the bullpen after injuries forced him to do so.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span>'s debut was anything but smooth - possibly worth pointing out.
Agreed. It seems like there is one scouting report floating around with terms like "no standout tool", "starred on the 16U and 18U national teams" and "gold glove at 2nd base". There is also the BA rankings where he is one of the top 10 players in Cuba before the country defected. There has been nothing recent published in quite some time, but you have to figure that he should be top 10, right?
18 homers AND 21 homers- that's pretty good!
I saw Bradley pitch several times and his FB was very low 90's. Bradley's absolute peak FB last season was 94.3. That doesn't sound plus to me. I know he threw harder in the past, and there are some injury concerns, but the FB may not be what everyone is hoping for. At what point do we start to question it?
I would rather have <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104934">Cole Tucker</a></span> (with the torn labrum). Projecting a player based on an elite hit tool never seems to work out that I know of, especially when the rest of the offensive profile is MIA.
He projects to move very well behind the dish although he will need to work on his catch-and-throw skills. recent reports have him sitting in the 2.5 sec range. Internal sources are confident in his ability to improve and the organization remains very positive regarding his potential as an offensive-minded catcher. He has a good chance to be the fastest catcher in the league if his receiving skills pan out.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=38350">Keith Law</a></span> would have something to say about this! I think the good news is that the rest of the world would agree with your take.
Agreed that the D-Backs/Stewart routine has been tired for quite some time now. This "analysis" is just an attempt at piling on.
Turner hasn't stolen bases at an elite level in the minors. It seems funny to expect him to step up at the MLB level. If you scale that 40 back to the 20s, there is not a lot to be excited about.
Elite upside. Vlad Jr has it, but Tellez does not. You are probably correct that they could be switched. I don't think there is a "right place" to rank Vlad Jr.
It seems kind of weird to publish an "avoid" list of players that nobody wants to draft in the first place. You are basically evaluating the floors of players with zero hype. This list would probably make a better "sleeper" list if you talked about their upsides!
Not a BP member, but I think I can say that he did not garner any consideration.
Two of those guys in the golden age group have played one full season - the rest have played zero - hype much?
Moran doesn't belong on the list, let alone where he is placed.
Devers is not going to make much impact over the next three years. These aren't keeper rankings.
Framing has been around for as long as catchers have been catching. The only thing that has changed is increased awareness to those who previously knew nothing about catching. People had to start attaching numbers to it before casual observers could understand.
Putting as much weight into defense as your team has seems like a mistake to me - just my two cents. There are countless instances of milb reports that a guy will never stick at XYZ, and then he ends up being a MLB regular. There are also many cases where a guy is pegged as a plus defender at a premium position which never happens. Elite and poor defense are easy to scout, but everything in between is a crap shoot.
I can't imagine how a fantasy top 101 and a real-life 101 would differ significantly. Is the fantasy 101 going to be the final draft, whereas this list was created in December?
In any case, kudos for being first. You are going to catch some flak for paving the way, but no list will be as influential.
I doubt it. Neither is much of a bet to make much of an impact ever. One may win out over time, but neither of these guys look like more than depth if they ever earn PT.
It is already a hard fact that the scouts missed on him. The only question is to what extent? Try not to put too much stock into that line of thinking...
Zimmer is tabbed as a 60 guy, but also back end of the top 100 by Bret, which doesn't add up. I am pretty certain that he will be the lowest ranked 60 in your top 100, right? I know you don't know the list yet, but this seems like a pretty safe bet.
Watson seems like the kind of guy that will be out of the top 10 a year from now, unless he has a breakout season. 50 seems generous to me.
In any case, thanks for the reply.
These grades all seem really inflated. 55 for Watson? A 60 on a guy at the back of the top 100?
Schoop walked plenty in the minors... which I find very weird when you look at his MLB stats. I think there is some hope for him.
Curious why you didn't declare all of the close categories as draws? If you declared draws in BA, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> and PT, then it is a tie. I would personally take Kipnis in each of those categories, although they could possibly go either way.
Clearly, you have never worked in customer service... nor have I, but you should probably keep the idea that paying customers criticisms are not valid to yourself. You don't have to like them, or care at all, but issuing a PSA that you don't care is a mistake. If someone crosses a line, or violates the terms of posting, then ban them.
To be perfectly clear, I get your point, but there are some things that you should not say publicly. It is just bad business and probably more importantly, you are feeding the trolls.
Revisionist history and critical thought do not go hand-in-hand. This is just click bait as opposed to meaningful content... or a fun exercise depending on your viewpoint.
He's not, but I only get one meaningless vote. You should never put too much stock into last year's final rankings, which is the only way you can place Hosmer in that position. The January trend has been to pimp Hosmer and rag on Freeman. The amazing thing to me is how people feed off of each others thoughts so heavily. It starts with one opinion and grows to a consensus.
In reality, Hosmer has always been a mediocre option at 1B. His speed is certainly trending down, while his hitting ability does not appear to be trending up in any way - I don't see how anything has changed for the better in his profile over the past year. Yet, somehow he has ascended the ladder...
Belt and Hosmer are 2 star options. The rest of that tier should outperform them handily.
It is pretty hard to get excited about counting stats, which is what Hosmer represents. Hosmer set career highs (by a large margin) in runs and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RBI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RBI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RBI</span></a>. My take on comparing these two would be - pay little attention to final end of season value as it can be skewed by luck-based metrics. Hosmer doesn't control the lineup around him. Often times, you are better off using the rankings from 2 years ago, unless there are some underlying skill changes.
Wouldn't the same be true of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68091">Max Kepler</a></span>?
How does Papi make this list? Especially when the guy that just missed sounds like a real prospect.
I can't imagine Fulmer dropping below 10 in a dynasty draft.
You forgot to mention <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57013">Derek Norris</a></span>. He has to be part of the conversation.
The level absolutely needs to be included with the stats.
I am highly disappointed in these rankings. It is like you have not considered my fantasy roster at all!
I don't think that trading a few outs for a bunch of doubles and triples is the best of ideas.
My analysis doesn't look so incorrect at this point, does it? Using the term "disastrous" should not seem like hyperbole at this point. How would you describe his 2nd half? I would use a word like, disastrous. He had a hot stretch where he was able to make it work, but he spent most of the season taking embarrassing hacks.
We will see a different Joc in 2016. I am not sure how it will go, but you could see him trying to strip all of that junk out of his setup in the final month of the season. It was ugly as it looked very uncomfortable to him, but i think he knows that what he was doing can't work. Here is to hoping that he can clean up his swing without losing his incredible lower half. It would be fun to see!
As for the Trout comment, the fact that he was not picked 1.1 or even close, tells you what the industry thought of him. Plus-plus runner, defender and frame - if someone thought he would hit, then he wouldn't have went when he did. Read old scouting reports - his bat was always the question and his swing was oft cited as an issue.
Lastly, I don't claim to analyze swings. I don't have a list of strokes that I like. I like to look at clips like you provided and identify what the hitter does to lessen his chances of success. I like a good old fashioned <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=436">Barry Bonds</a></span>... trust your bat speed and don't do anything fancy. Many of the most talented hitters try to make it more difficult that it is.
How about the Dodgers just covert Montas straight to the bullpen? There is a 90% chance he ends up there anyways and they get to scratch their bullpen itch in the process as well.
Late inning relievers do grow on trees. How does that figure into pricing?
I think we are entering into a short-lived era of grossly overpaying for relievers. Let this be known as the Royals effect. The Royals previous two "elite" closers, Soria and Holland, had very short windows of dominance and their current bullpen ace is a flamed out SP prospect. I think too much of the Royals success is attributed to the bullpen. It is an asset, but not the primary source of their recent success as it is portrayed.
First thought - Wow, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104814">Alex Jackson</a></span> is still the #1 prospect!
Second thought - Wow, this system is pretty poor!
To be clear, do you think Franco is a major-league third baseman?
The excitement should come from the depth of the system. I think it is misleading that the talent never really drops off. In some systems, Whitley would be the exciting top of the system player. There are notable players in the honorable mention section!
No analysis of Swansby? I know he is in the minors, but so are Blair, Brito, O'Brien and Mallex. In any case, I should live... but it seems like a missing point.
Describing Bonds as 'not a great human being' is pretty ridiculous. When you consider some of the junkies, rapists and murderers that play professional sports, it makes Bonds sound like a crime boss. Unpopular, contentious, abrasive - those are potentially accurate terms. Perhaps when the masses stops trying to tear down his image, we can celebrate one of the finest athletes to ever play the game. I look forward to that time. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Pete+Rose">Pete Rose</a></span> is finally making some progress on that front.
"<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59145">Marcell Ozuna</a></span> was one of the favorite young players for fantasy players" - that is a very strange thing to say about a waiver wire pickup who has only played one full season. He was waiver fodder in the beginning of the 2014 season, which was his only roster-worthy season.
That is an interesting take. Every scout that I have ever met has already known exactly what they were looking to see prior to warm-ups. More often than not, they leave after they have seen what they came to see.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52691">Jake Arrieta</a></span>!
Yikes. This system is garbage! Maybe overweight teens isn't the best draft strategy...
Fair enough. Thanks for the reply!
It is good to see these articles getting started. I would like to offer a few suggestions though as this felt a bit unedited/rushed.
1. Many of the players just have a single paragraph where you mix tools, weaknesses and projection. This would be a better resource with a paragraph on the good and a paragraph on the bad at least - which is always how it has been done. In its current format, it comes off like you just don't have enough content to do a full write-up on every player.
2. You don't list Stewart's draft year. It is easily inferred, but it adds to the rushed feel of the product.
I don't know if it is too late to make changes going forward, but I am sure everyone would appreciate it.
I could personally care less about the suits behind the decisions, so you have that going for you.
It seems like everyone gets a projected bump in offensive numbers when going to NYY, but it never seems to actually play out.
Least valuable update ever?
This guy has been left for dead several times in his career. Strange to hear that he will head into spring with a job.
My vote goes to the KC fans. They seemed like they were having more fun.
31% chance is pretty absurd for any team in the World Series
How is 16 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> in 2015 a mini breakout compared to 17 HR the previous year for Phillips? Not to mention the Cal league... His <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> and slugging are literally lower. I would call his 2015 completely in line with expectations.
Regarding <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70406">Trevor Story</a></span>'s swing mechanics, those sound like relatively easy adjustments. Shorten up the stride and settle down the hands.
The scouts have always been way off on this one. For a while he was the next Miggy, then he was DH only. I was very surprised when I first saw him, because of the junk I had read in scouting reports. I thought he would have a beer gut and a Doritos wrapper sticking out if his back pocket.
I am thinking there is some power upside here. He could likely trade a bunch of his contact % for power. That is one of the very few things that a player can do any time they want.
Haren one was one of the most under-appreciated SP of his era - probably the most. Never a real <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31191">Cy Young</a></span> contender, but his peak was better than many young "superstars". He had a very long run at the top as well.
Well done, sir.
I think you have reached the point of being obligated to explain "superficially inflated".
You really can't put a zero chance on that. Players like Utley and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Wright">David Wright</a></span> put themselves in the conversation by being very smart about it. Beyond that point, I wouldn't take a quote from <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17864">Don Mattingly</a></span> for much...
I think the innings count is much more than a nitpick. It is is downright scary - it is just not fun to talk about.
Promotions should help that cause greatly. I would wager that he is still top 75. The same people that were in love with him still will be.
I remember when the was a glove-first prospect. The question was whether he would hit enough to stay in the lineup. Here he is 15 years later and his bat has carried his career.
I am glad that you clarified that the scouts were not wrong about DeGrom. It is important not to hurt their feelings. I thought scouts used grades like 40/60. Was DeGrom not projectable enough?
Potentially better than Yarnall.
Wouldn't you expect a high put away % out of guys who are new to the league? With a veteran starer, you know what you are going to need to deal with. This would not be nearly the case with an emerging starter. It seems like a poor measure of future success for a rookie starter. If the pitcher really does have something going for them, then there will certainly be adjustments.
I don't see how double digit <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> has any value in the OF - especially when we are referring to 10 as opposed to 20. Even more so when we are talking about a player which needs to develop to reach those numbers. That type of player is always available on the waiver wire in the form of a veteran.
This situation was absurd. He was recently activated from the DL, which is probably the most important detail of the story (also an absent one). He was literally pulled in a perfect game due to a pitch count of 63 in his previous start. When you couple these two factors it was a pretty odd situation.
If it weren't for fantasy, I am not sure how many fans would be left. I firmly believe that fantasy is keeping sports relevant to the masses. You don't have to like it, but that is the way it is.
I think everyone understands that Urias is unique. I doubt he changes much in the industry. The Dodgers have tried to hold him back, but he is completely unchallenged below AA.
No it is certainly not too much. Wheeler is currently broken and his command was a major liability in the first place. Fisher is struggling in a high offense environment. This is probably peak value for the pair going forward. Reality might not be too kind to either one of them. Either one of them becoming a fantasy anchor is a pipe dream at this moment.
Come on man. It is not like they are out feeding the hungry. Chances are that if you are reading this column, you would do the job for free if someone would red your notes. In reality, slapping 20s on most players is an easy job. They are only there to see a few guys.
A lot of people used to say that prior to the draft. It was always a common theme before he became Astros property.
That is not a realistic role. Pitching one inning regularly is pushing it, but multiple innings regularly would destroy an arm - especially if they were putting any effort into it. We have all seen a closer go 1+ and be unavailable for a few days... what you are suggesting would be that on a regular basis... only a twice as long.
Strange choice on the swings you chose. In one it is a breaking ball (change?) down and away and in the other it is a loopy slider that just catches the inside corner belt-high. I doubt either one of those are representative of much. He had no choice but to do exactly what he did with both pitches.
The Rangers draft athletes and don't do much to fix anyone's approach issues. I think he will be fine from a developmental standpoint.
Just replace him after his first walk or hit allowed. Change closers at that point.
You have to expect that there will be another deal right? The block in front of him certainly is not as substantial either.
I would expect this to be more common than not. These guys are still kids and they are already pretty poor athletes. It is hard for scouts to fall in love with guys that don't pass the eyeball test.
I was going to post the same thing. He doing exactly what he did last year.
That offensive upside that you are hinting at was always pure projection. He never hit .300 or showed much power or speed at any stop in the minors. His value was in his SS eligibility. At another position he is far less exciting.
Its a silly comment in the first place. Where do you think the media gets its info?
Piscotty has a very outside shot at ever being fantasy relevant. If you are looking for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a>, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> or <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> you can do better. If you simply have too many roster spots, then he may be worth a waiver claim.
You shouldn't be too surprised. Scouting is for the most part, just a collection of group-think and re-hashed opinions. It would be surprising if they had some actual insight.
Why read the comments is they are from unworthy sources? If analyzing a swing was a black and white as portrayed in the article, then everyone would have a mechanically sound swing.
The biggest hurdle standing in his way is health. How many tomes did he get shut down last year? If that is truly behind him, then the future looks bright.
It has never been elite. He is more projection than on-field results which is strange for a player in AA. Scouts praise does seem to be pretty universal though.
To further Nimmo's "bad rap", he does not have the plus speed either that has been miscast on him. You take away the speed and the power and yeah... He is however, a cold-weather guy - played in Wyoming you know!
Do you have a second career in public education? Pretty generous with the grades!
He should be forgiven. He was attempting to help. Some people actually came to the site looking for content today.
Many Mets prospects are way overblown. It is very strange that Conforto gets this treatment. In reality nobody is a savior. I don't know why that has to be at the forefront with Conforto.
LOL Josh Vitters
Nitpick much? They are both on the same continent.
Most trades involve a degree of uncertainty. This "trade" is just giving away talent. Regardless of what becomes of Tiki, this is just a lack of commitment to building the franchise, or as it is otherwise known "pulling a Loria".
So did everyone else.
The punishment is simple. What would Roger Goodell do? That guy has an impeccable sense for dealing out the perfect punishment every time!
I just got off the horn with Rog and this was what he had to offer, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100502">Carlos Correa</a></span> will be suspended for two years. He was in the minor league system and ranked at the top of the prospect lists, so that makes perfect sense. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70348">Mark Appel</a></span> shall be put on double-super-secret probation as well for his involvement in the process.
Hopefully the highest powers act quickly!
Expect him to struggle. He will. He was scuffling at AA. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets sent back down and emerges next year. It really does not make him any worse of a prospect though. Instant success is gratifying, but of zero real importance to his career.
It seems like it was relatively effective. He got some hits and more importantly destroys the shift.
Now he just needs to learn how to bunt while also studying up on that whole 'bunting with 2 strikes' rule.
Strange choice to mention Gonsalves and then not include him in the list. He has elevated his stock as much as anyone.
What you call a hitch, many people call a load - which is an essential part of any non-slap swing.
A real hitch is generally any pre-swing hand movement not related to the load - it is a bad thing. See Josh Hamiliton's high school GIF for an example. Purely a wasted movement, which complicates the timing while also creates inconsistent hand positions.
Are Mets fans really that adamant that you have to apologize for an unfavorable player evaluation?
Much like evo said, nobody in the FSL has a floor of MLB regular. I think that was his point more than the SSS data - which is also worthy of note.
You are really minimizing the excessive movement in the early phases or Pederson's swing. This is why he has huge contact issues. The high leg kick and the time where his head drops and twists an absurd amount are just plain bad for his outcomes. You say the differences between Joc and Ted are stylistic... look at their heads - one hardly moves, the other is completely out of control. They do use their hips similarly, which is the thing that Pederson does best. Once he gets through the disastrous setup, he really brings the bat through the zone.
I find it funny that players are often lauded for their creative loads, leg kicks and "rhythm". I can't help but think about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102745">Dominic Smith</a></span> from a few drafts ago. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there are players with succinct swings who are not scout favorites, like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span>.
0% unless Trout stops playing baseball. They are not the same caliber of player. Harper has great offensive potential (so does Trout), but Trout is elite in CF and on the base-paths. Harper simply gets ejected too frequently to match Trout's counting stats. On a more serious note, who do you think is more durable?
The Royals are one of the few teams in MLB that play baseball. Another would be the Giants. By "baseball", I mean situational hitting, base-running, playing defense, etc. Most teams are more concerned with promoting the youngest, mistake-prone, swing-and-miss prospects to their active roster. Classic style over substance. It is great to see the teams doing it right having continued "surprising: success.
I know it was consensus, but 25 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> expectations were odd coming into the season. He has only surpassed 15 HR once. I don't know what Duda is or isn't but nobody else should claim to either. He is a non-prospect, middle-of-the-order slugger, without intermittent power and occasional huge platoon-splits.
He was an oft-injured very exciting player. I will always remember him as a, "what could have been" type of talent offensively at least. He probably could have been a career .300 hitter as it fit his skillset, but he opted for 100 career <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> instead. He chose the hall of very good over the hall of fame.
Cool piece. Don't feel obligated to throw the Trout references into your next retrospective.
That would be interesting. It is probably the biggest development in the minor leagues so far this year.
The column is named "minor league update", I don't know why it would have anything to do with ROY eligibility. I think your choices are fine. I am just saying, why exclude anyone?
15 HR/15 SB/.230 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> is quite valuable - yuck. I have to think that many players could produce this line if given the opportunity, but that is not the way it works out. Perhaps old Ted was correct regarding the current state of the game. Ks and all.
Is there any chance he sticks in the rotation?
This is a really impressive adjustment. It is equally impressive/disappointing that most hitters do not make an adjustment. At the lowest level, hitting is about using the entire field. It is crazy that players make it to the show and think that they are above hitting balls where they are pitched and using the whole field. Maybe Moose can teach them something.
Taylor has zero upside in his bat. He might steal enough bags to have value, but that is his only value. Last year was his flash in the pan and it wasn't that spectacular. People have put way too much stock into his first dozen games of 2014. There is a good reason that he was never regarded as a prospect. It is strange how much buzz this guy has around the internets.
How many SS specs actually play SS? Correa has really accelerated his time table as well this year, nobody could have predicted this.
I think this is a smart move by the Pads. It sounds like a bad idea to promote him to a bench role, but he is likely just a defensive specialist in the first place. They may as well get some use out of him when they are trying to contend. Norris can really use a defensive replacement in the latter innings. It will be interesting to see how they use him.
I own nearly every buy low recommendation. The problem is that I drafted them as my starters. Let's hope that you are right!
Great stuff. This was a fun read and a nice reminder of what made Biggio great. I think it is easy to lump him in that "counting stats" HOF category, but he really was a great player.
How many of these players' buzz is based off of small sample size? What have any of them ever done for a sustained period of time?
I don't think the upside with Odor is what a lot of people are expecting. He is a fine dynasty league player, but his upside is nothing in any category.
Take <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brad+Miller">Brad Miller</a></span> for example, at least he has a good chance of hitting 12-15 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> and stealing as many bases. He is considered droppable?
It is neat to reflect on the future hall of famers; Griffey, Manny and Mays - particularly their initial struggles. The other guys are just guys - not so neat. I was hoping there would be more of the former. Cool idea though.
Re: Meyer - "His track record in the minors leaves little left to prove" - yeah, I don't think that is accurate at all. There are few out there that think he has any chance of sticking as a starter. I don't think he has quite solved the command/control piece yet with his 9BB/9IP ratio this year. Couple that with every other possible negative trend as he has climbed the organizational ladder and you have something very far from a finished product.
It was an encouraging start for sure, but he has done nothing to indicate that he is ready for the show.
That is understated. Seager's offensive ceiling qs as high as any of them. I think the key here is "one year ago". Seager was not in that group one year ago. He has really climbed the rankings quickly, whereas all those other guys were immediately in that tier.
The Cubs demonstrated as an organization that winning is not their top priority.
It's not too late to scrap them either!
He is young, but he has a ton of mileage on that arm. His stuff is also steadily degrading. Don't be fooled by his age. This is a player with collapse coming up on him sooner than later unless he reinvents himself.
I can't believe the Uptons are reunited again! That was essentially a death sentence to BJ's career. Why would they want him? It clearly was not a good path in either player's development the first time around.
The Mets are mishandling Thor. I get that he is not MLB-ready (who is?), but pitching in Las Vegas isn't doing anything for him. Really, a repeat? Basically, one year has passed and he is in the exact same spot as last year. The Mets just blew a year of development and health out of his arm.
Gausman's talent has always exceeded his ability. He was not elite in college, the minors and his mediocrity has reared its head in the show consistently. He may become a real asset at some point, but he doesn't do anything well other than fill up the scouting sheet at this point.
You seem pretty reluctant to accept that Meyer just might not have what it takes to start. Nothing about him is trending positively - except maybe his chance for an arm injury. He has a million dollar arm but little else at this point. He may not have enough command to work in the bullpen for that matter. Success is not just waiting for him.
Your report on Franco got me to thinking. It seems like bad weight projections pretty much never come to fruition. If a guy already has a bad body, then it often gets Vogelbach. Those guys are a mess to begin with though.
Dominguez has value. He is a great guy for any organization. Great glove, power. Moran's comp should be <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58779">Brett Wallace</a></span>. A "sure thing" with the stick from a major college with no other real path to value.
I think it is comical that Alcatara is regarded all that differently from Baez. Neither of the two have demonstrated the contact skills to stick at the MLB level. Alcantara was slightly less horrible than Baez last year, but far from acceptable. The difference between the two is that Baez has the tools that we like to pretend that Alcantara possesses.
I would bet against both of them ever figuring it out. The safety that surrounds Alcantara is weird though. He will likely end up in the minors soon enough and Baez will take his place. Then we will have the same conversations only swapping the two names.
These aren't darkhorses in any way. My darkhorse MVP candiate is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span> and my darkhorse <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31191">Cy Young</a></span> is Kershaw.
What about the lack of trust this creates between Bryant and the Cubs? What about the lack of commitment to winning that this demonstrates? The idea that the Cubs will have a functional squad with a happy Bryant in five years may be flawed. There is a lot more going on here than team control and several million dollars. Would you want to play for the Cubs?
Let's not act like this organization has perfected the art of the draft. They had 1.1 picks in years where there were easy consensus guys. I think they had a poor draft this year - we will have to meet back here in 18 months to see though... Those bad 1.1 picks were bad the second those picks were made. Appel falls into that category as well.
You drafted toolsy players, which is a good idea. What is the alternative?
This is cheating. You can't wait until spring training begins.
Interesting to read something where everyone is not touted as a breakout. Well done.
It is primarily based on group-think. If one scout talks loud enough, then others start to follow. Some are blessed with the projection tag and others are not. Reality is a different story. Do yourself a favor and try not to be too concerned with it in either case. Take a guy like Aaron Blair who was maxed out prior to last year's uptick in stuff... It is anything but a science.
I was. How dare you!
Blair has always struck out a ton of guys so far. Why would you think Nola will? He never has.
That Conforto is one handsome dude!
Amaro is doing an incredible job of both losing now and not building for the future. He has also managed to minimize the trade value of his current assets. Hopefully GMs around the league can learn from his mistakes - it is probably not a great idea to badmouth your own players. Who would want to play in PHI right now?
This seems like a pretty odd choice of guys to compare. The only reason McCarthy doesn't win in a landslide are the counting stats because of injury concerns. The only rate stat that Hutch wins is Ks and it is not that one-sided. These are two interesting names, but they are apples and oranges the way you analyzed them. Talent v Injury concern.
His one full load in 2013 consisted of a bad stretch and a good one. It was anything but a great year.
Well-rounded is probably the last term one should use to describe Winker. He is a bat only player.
Not the author... but yes, you are interpreting these graphs correctly. The shape is the most important part, secondly is the color.
There is no way he catches one game. He is embarrassing back there, but I think he has a bat to play in a corner. He doesn't need to catch to have value. Knocking for not being a C only makes a little sense. He isn't some kind of Stryker Trahan type spec where his value is solely tied to position.
Yes, he is a bust. Some are still clinging to pre-2014 scouting reports, but there isn't anything there to be excited about.
Taillon is just a better prospect, always has been. Isn't this a shoulder vs elbow as well? Zimmer has never done anything well for more than a stretch.
RBI doesn't even seem like a valid category for comparison. Do you judge MLB players by their RBI? Why would we try to project something so contextual on minor leaguers? We don't know what the lineup will look like around them when they are established, let alone which team they will play for. In this example, we have Franco with better power and hit tool, but he will drive in fewer runs? I assume Peterson will be closing the gap with a slew of bases-loaded walks.
"No one is going to miss A-Rod when he’s gone"
We fall all over ourselves over the next great nobody, and we can't appreciate one of the game's all-time greats? Sounds about right.
He sounds like a back of the rotation guy to me. I think he gets about the right amount of respect - safe but unspectacular in every respect.
Rendon is right up there for most overrated going into 2015. Does anyone remember all of his injury concerns? One healthy season doesn't make those go away. Nor does one solid season vault you to the top of a list - it shouldn't anyway.
Agreed. As a sleeper he is a nice name to know, but he doesn't belong in this discussion.
It was very clever the first time!
He sounds like Almora-lite, which is actually pretty sneeze-worthy. I think if you want to find Sam Fuld type players you could find many of them. Thanks for the response though.
I think you have him way overrated. He sounds like a defense-first OF with little chance to do anything with the bat. He comes from a baseball family, he shouldn't be that raw with the bat/approach.
Wong won't come cheap considering that he is an annual flop. Every league is going to have a few owners targeting him.
Nobody should draft Ike Davis.
Mark it down - Duda had one fluke good season. He is not a good player. Advantage - Belt.
This is one of the better systems in baseball although it is not regarded as such
Another thing to keep in mind with a catcher is how quickly they drop off. Even if they are healthy, they take a beating and they don't last like other players. That decline could be coming very quickly. I don't think anyone should ever be too excited by investing a pick in a catcher. You can't count on them to be steady contributors for so many reasons.
I just mention this because there seems to be so much buzz around this emerging superstar. It is great when you draft a C who breaks out, but when you start having real expectations, you might end up with 2014 Y Molina.
I can't imagine that there is anyone with an interest in fantasy baseball that doesn't know about d’Arnaud's second half. This has to be one of the most often quoted splits from the 2014 season.
Just wondering where the "potential" grades come from. Some player are expected to progress and others are not? Typically "potential" applies to relatively untested/unscouted players, but this set of rankings is using the term with 255 lb top draft picks and players with MLB service time, which seems weird. Why not just scout them for what they are? Why do some guys get a boost of a grade or two? You know as well as I do that these rankings don't accurately capture anything. Why not give them actual grades? I know everyone does it, it just seems like a hedge against really putting yourself out there.
Don't worry, this ETA will not effect any of the decisions in Colorado.
You should expect this effect every year regarding every prospect's every tool. None of this is in stone (or means anything at all) and most glowing scouting reports are due to lack of competition/scouting.
Owners "who don’t mind waiting on long-lead prospects" will consistently have terrible farm systems. i just thought you might want to know about this fact.
What is there to like about Smith... other than the group-think scouting reports? The power is non-existent, he was one of the jason-parks-preternatural-hitter types lol.
This system will produce much more than most systems. You regard this as a weak system and it is not. The list of excluded players is better than some top 10s.
Way too advanced of a player for this list.
Agreed. There are much worse movies, Major League 3 anybody?
Is it really a pleasant surprise that there are not 10 better prospects in this organization?
This list, like the others, is too young... Too many Low-A phenoms here.
General comment here regarding the lists so far - They are too young.
You forgot #4. Plays in NY. If he was a great middle reliever in SD he wouldn't receive a vote.
Not sure how you can call Zimmer "back to his old self"... that represents the best start of his career.
This looks like a great match-up for the Royals. I like their chances despite their mediocre talent.
Stupidest term I hear way too oven on the interwebs, "shoved".
He is a polished college arm, not some 17 year-old from the Dominican. What else would you expect?
Go watch SportsCenter if you want highlights with no analysis. You are on the wrong website.
What's wrong with Piazza?
Why is this a shock to anyone? He was a constant underachiever in college. He was a poor draft pick then and his struggles should not surprise anyone with their eyes open.
The parents are the larger issue. Pretty sure this is directed at them...
It should not take much dreaming to imagine how badly he will be exploited in the near future either. Those contact problems are not gone... It is easy to get excited about a young guy having some success, but if he is in fact for real, he will be pitched accordingly at some point.
Your ability to reflect on your past experiences will serve you well. Nice work.
Of all your 'misses', I don't think this is going to be a big one. He does not have significant speed or power and his hit tool, which is his only real value, is buoyed by a BABIP well over .400 for the second year running. He sounds like he has the absolute upside of Mark Kotsay.
If you want more updates, then you should check out minorleagueball.com for daily updates. I hope this isn't some huge terms of service violation. I actually like this column better because it has far less BS, but everyone who wants tons of daily updates should know about that free site. That being said, I like this column a lot as it is not overwhelming and it does have good variety.
I think he is going to have many struggles, relatively speaking. He is firmly caught in between doing what he does best (being a leadoff hitter with pop) and wanting to be an elite slugger. I think he could be an elite slugger, and he will be when his legs are gone, but for now he is in a tough spot mentally. Offensively, he would be best served to be Rickey Henderson but there is a lot of pressure on him to be something else. He has been taking some pretty inconsistent hacks lately... and by inconsistent, I mean bad.
MLB needs to address this with a new rule. New rules are the answer to everything! If not a new rule, then I bet we can fix this with replay.
The simple answer is that IT WAS NOT A SINGLE EVENT which led to the injury. He is too young to be attempting to do what he was doing. This happened last season when he was promoted #unsustainable.
This and every other BP scouting report on Montero is an exercise in scouting bias. I am pulling for him more than anyone other prospect this year to succeed and there is no reason to think that doesn't have a shot. Maybe people will learn something, but I doubt it. Too old, too small, too thin... in other words he is a bad prospect on paper.
Only one idea is necessary. Get rid of this abomination.
This is obviously a good time to slide into first - wild throw. It is also a good option if someone is late to cover the bag - one more huge obstacle to worry about. It is a good way to injure a pitcher which is not really the goal but it illustrates the point.
A major issue with Gyorko should be that he has hit really poorly for the majority of his MLB career. The fluke is looking like his second half of last season...
#4 is a clear cross up. That one is on the pitcher. The catcher has to turn his glove over to catch a slider in that location.
+1 Kevlar Pinata
I can say with complete confidence that Springer will never be mentioned in the same sentence as Trout and Schmidt by the end of the season. Perhaps Brett Jackson or Chris Young are possibilities and if things go right, Mike Cameron.
1 and 2 are out of order. I don't even see how it is open to discussion.
Defector = slider
Baseball is a man's game. That is pretty much what it comes down to. There is no room for whining about scrapes, cuts or even broken bones nor is there room for for dancing around or personal celebrations. MLB is not the NBA, although it may be someday.
He is injured too right?
Good analysis... and I don't say that often.
That is the type of stash which can cost you your league. This is not the top 25 prospects, it is players which may make an impact sooner than later.
22 HR and a .270 BA is taking the league by storm, eh? Getting really excited over a kid is one thing and overstating his impact is another. At some point people should get tired of being wrong. He doesn't even belong in any MVP conversations until he does something...
This was the one unmissable guy... even more so than Gallo
Hamilton got a bad jump on that CS. Stealing bases is about the jump that you get and little else. Sure, David Wells will need more than a good jump to swipe a bag but the majority of those variables can be factored out of the equation/analysis. If you want to overcomplicated things, then go ahead, but stealing bases is about the jump, which consists of quickness, committing, and not being afraid of being caught. There is no reason to think that a sprinter would be good at the the last element of getting a good jump which is not being afraid. Speed isn't enough, you have to cheat a little bit - that is not how sprinting in track works. It would be called a false start.
The pre-season Indians closer situation is "one to avoid" every year. However, it never ends up that way. Never. Not to say that it won't this year. Chris Perez is far better than Axford, but there is always some unproven closer in the wings in Cleveland which is really more a of a reflection of the Indians philosophy. They are good at developing relievers, which really does not translate into closers.
Cole is way too high, and I don't mean that in a nit-picky sense either. He is nowhere near elite. You can agree with me after the 2014 season. He has an entire career or teasing and regressing. Last year represented the tease and it wasn't elite by any measure other than ERA.
I guess my point is more that, there is a good chance that we are looking at a reliever. If a reliever had two elite pitches I don't think anyone would be too excited. I think the hype is too great for essentially a high school kid coming off of TJ. I do appreciate the projections though
Lets see if he has 2 elite pitches after a single season as a starter. The last time he was a real starter he promptly tore his UCL.
There are two villains here, the Phillies and the NCAA. Neither with the kids best interests at hand. But of course, the ones who suffer are the kids.
You have Wheeler ahead of Noah in the under 25 rankings which I would disagree with, especially based on your glowing scouting report. I would bet on Wheeler to struggle mightily with command forever. He is a thrower, not a pitcher which also doesn't bode well for his health. Just my two cents.
Good luck with Harper at #4 overall! Are these dynasty rankings?
Biddle sounds like he is extremely overrated in the rest of the prospecting world. I though he had better stuff... poor command... yuck
You are going to be waiting a long time for Machado to become what you think he is currently. You are projecting his ceiling(s) as likely outcomes. .300/20HR is nothing to get too excited about in the first place. See David Wright, who will likely eclipse both of those while adding a bunch of SBs. I would bet on one of those numbers, but not the both in the same season.
CTRL+V, baby! You guys push out a lot of content. I don't see nay harm in some duplication.
You forgot Anthony Rendon!
I don't like him as a good option at 2B let alone 3B. Even if he had a better non-unclassman-college track record, there would still be the health issues.
Why do some players get potential tool grades as opposed to those that get stuck with actual grades? For example Devin Williams does not get his actual tools rated.
Stolen bases are only partially about speed. It helps, but most guys are just not cut out for it. Getting caught is embarrassing... It takes something unique to get right out there and try again.
key word is "would"... the question has already been sidestepped in the rankings once
Anyone else can have Rendon. No thanks. His "slump" was twice as long as his "good half".
When people have to spend that much time explaining what is wrong with Edwards... there is probably not that much wrong with in the first place. It seems to be a common industry theme. Reminds me a bit of the critiques of Taveras' "violent" swing.
LOL Brad Miller
This sounds really nitpicky
Is anyone on this lineup not a question mark? This is a recipe for disaster.
Your opinion is not welcome here
If I could 'save' this comment, then I would. Don't know if this helps... I come here for objective information - this is pretty much representative of the opposite of that. I dislike the narratives which are interwoven with analysis in general.
Thanks for the reply.
In reality, nobody can afford to carry those lottery tickets for the 5 years it takes them to establish themselves and the majority completely flame out within a few years.
You don't have Phillip Ervin in your top 50? That seems like an omission...
Bond responses are the worst part of this. Writing like this is what ruins the HOF.
Q - How many catchers are looking to back pick a guy off first in an exhibition game?
A - I would assume all of them. How else would you show off in a meaningless game?
That pitch from Estrada to Headley is pretty definitive proof that PitchFX is not a reliable tool. Thank goodness that machines don't call balls and strikes.
No such thing as a sure-fire SS. You only have to look as far as last year. Profar is already moving to 2B and Machado went straight to 3B. People can say that, "he has the tools..." but that, long with 99 cents will get you a sausage biscuit before 10:30 at McDonalds. As far as I am concerned, there are guys like Wilmer Flores - no chance in hell to stick at SS and the rest. As with every other job opportunity in the world, it is a combination of circumstance and ability. I have seen defensive metrics which tell a story of Derek Jeter being the worst SS of all time but he will retire as a Hall of Famer at the position.
This feature illustrates how inaccurate K-Zone is.
SBs aren't as Sports Center friendly. The decline of the game in one statistic.
Part 2 sounds a lot better. This sounds like largely a list of future utility players
I don't think there is any value in freezing a pitch to make it look closer to a strike. Any pitch can be frozen from an angle to be made to look like a strike. I am not for bringing technology into the game but I am for holding humans accountable for their mistakes. Of course, where there is a powerful union, you will have no luck with that...
Come on man. Nobody like to bring up actual past scouting reports. It is much easier to just scout based on recent reults.
Seems like a theme... maybe the customer is right? I don't need the rankings but it seems they should be out by now.
Your list of pitchers that you have "taken to task for their poor posture" is also pretty interchangeable with the list of best pitchers over the past five years.Sounds like they are doing something right!
He did not earn the opportunity. It was handed to him. Big difference.
He didn't have plus-plus tools when he was drafted. Nor has he made much progress with any of them. People have completely lost sight of what he is.
I don't really even understand why this needs to be elaborated on. What about Machado has superstar potential? He is already moved off of SS... he has never shown plus power, hit tool or speed. He WAS a top draft pick - if that makes you a superstar then that's fine... but as far as actual skills, Machado is no superstar. Maybe he will be someday - but the chance is not much greater than any other prospect with MLB level tools.
If we are going to go crazy with projection, then we may as well just pick the guy with less experience. In which case we should go with Gausman. Machado overachieved in his callup with his insane start and strong finish. Even with those numbers, he was nothing special. At least Gausman has the chance to light the world on fire. Machado had already and a few chances and he never will. He doesn't have that kind of talent. I don't believe in Gausman, but at least there is a chance that he could be MVP-caliber if for no reason other than this will be his first full season.