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Tim Collins
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/38485
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

This has been remedied. A mistaken overcalculation as a reaction to all the hype about the limitation on McCullers this year.

Feb 16, 2016 9:53 AM on October 20-November 2
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Yep-- something got messed up there. Good catch. Will be fixed ASAP.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

This is more of a rest of season prediction/projection. That Parnell will get the job when he returns and get the majority of the save opportunities once he does. I have projected Familia for 10 saves.

Apr 15, 2015 7:44 AM on October 6-13
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

It's looking like Boxberger until McGee comes back.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Rays closer situation is one of those that appears up in the air. I will closely monitor as news flows out but this could certainly change. Don't think anyone has a strong hold on this job at the moment.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

This is fixed. This has been a bit of a flip-flop all spring. I had Mookie atop the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/">depth chart</a> until Ferrell declared Castillo the starter. Then Castillo went down and I dramatically reduced his time. Now Betts appears to have forced the issue. I've been monitoring this situation closely.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

There have been some grumblings about Gardner potentially hitting second. Ellsbury hit third quite a bit last year but he seems to be the leadoff hitter at this moment. That said-- Gardner did lead off last year as well. Batting order is one of the more difficult things to predict in March-- and we'll be tweaking as news comes out, and things develop.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

His PT was reduced slightly after news of his surgery-- but he's not expected (right now) to miss too much time.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

The playing time projection is a manual one and is more related to opportunity and other factors (with Bryant, the financial implications of an earlier call up are considered). My thought process is that are likely to Cubs wait to call him up until mid season.

Feb 03, 2015 8:15 AM on October 13-19
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

We manually assign playing time using information we've collected, historical trends, and future predictions. Specific to Kris Bryant, it's an open question whether he'll break camp with the team, latest indications have been that he won't. If information becomes available that he may be in for more playing time, we can (and will) adjust that prediction.

Jan 29, 2015 8:33 AM on The PECOTA Release
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Stay tuned.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

fixed-- good catch. 10 saves for League did seem a little... optimistic.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Thanks for the feedback. This is a function of the fact that we projected Herrera to get more at bats in the 9th spot than anyone else because Jackie Bradley might bounce around a few spots in the order but he may also lose time to Sizemore. On the positional breakdown, Herrera is listed as a backup at 3 spots. Now, I can see a quibble with his combined playing time being a bit high given his performance history and I've tweaked that slightly.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

You can expect updates every few days based on transactions. Last update was done on Friday the 7th-- next batch of updates soon.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Derek-- Thanks for your feedback. Norris is projected to get the lion's share of time at catcher this season. A thing I did miss on was giving Vogt a little time, which I'll rectify in my next update. Good catch. As far as Nava goes, he's the beneficiary of both being on the right side of the platoon in left, but also being versatile enough to play first, and right field. With CF a little uncertain and the chance Victorino plays there more frequently than in 2013-- I see Nava getting a lot of time in those 3 spots. Additionally, his PAs are boosted by spending a lot of time at or near the top the lineup.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

This projection assumes that with Dunn, Viciedo, and Konerko in the fold that Abreu may not start the season with the team. Once the first base/DH situation in Chicago becomes more clear these numbers may be adjusted.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Good catch! Missed that. I'll get that fixed today. Thanks

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Indeed-- this is a function of (sometimes) players appearing frequently at multiple lineup positions, but also those lineup positions (ie the Mariners' 8/9 spots) being a bit muddled at the moment. Rest assured that as the season approaches, and playing time becomes more clear, situations like that will be ironed out.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

good find. Fixed!

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Additionally, if you'd like to view ALL Factors on the Farm, click the link on the Prospect Tracker home page, or BP account holders will have this "team" available as the first choice in the team tracker drop down menu. Enjoy!

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

this should be working now

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

unacceptable!

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

Because it's hilarious to me, I'm picturing Ruben Amaro as a 5 year old. Super excited about the shiny new toy (read: Delmon Young) and he HAS to have it. To make room in his backpack for Delmon, he casually tosses Brown into the sandbox and kicks a little bit of dirt over him. Then his little brother (Luhnow) walks up and grabs Brown out of the dirt. He dusts him off and starts to study him. Ruben Amaro looks over his shoulder and instantly fills with a jealous rage he just can't understand, and runs back to the sandbox. "Mine!" he screeches and grabs Brown's arm and begins to tug on it. Lunhow becomes indignant, and tugs back. Will this end in tears? No doubt.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
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Jason's top 100 prospects will be a feature added in a future iteration. Get excited!

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -

#3 reminds me of a piece Ben Lindbergh did last year relating to starter conversions. It was specifically a study on 5 cases for 2012 but he does reference some data that states that converted starters actually get hurt less often than non-converts. I don't know what he used for his data but the article is here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16184 Of the 5 cases mentioned 1 got hurt (Feliz), 1 was pretty bad (Bard), 2 stayed in relief (Chapman and Crow), and one was pretty awesome (Sale). Just sayin'

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

I think there's a lot to be said for the cost aspect of it. The Twins have historically been a "fiscally responsible" team, and big arms = big dollars. Especially in free agency but at the draft as well. Perhaps, the new CBA as it's driving down overall draft costs allows a team like the Twins to experiment a little bit with these types of guys in the draft. Just a thought.

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

I stand corrected. Forgot that Greinke was traded mid-season and therefore isn't subject to draft pick compensation.

Jan 15, 2013 9:45 AM on Tuesday, January 15
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

Haven't the Dodgers already forfeited their 1st round draft pick to sign Greinke? Impacts the cost slightly since they'd give up a second round pick for Soriano.

Jan 15, 2013 9:43 AM on Tuesday, January 15
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 1

I wouldn't read that much into it. Upton is a potential superstar player signed to a reasonable contract and just entering his prime. Walker is a nice prospect but as a 19 year old pitching prospect with *potential* command issues for a team very deep in pitching prospects, it seems like a worthwhile gamble.

Jan 11, 2013 10:08 AM on Friday, January 11
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

Hard to see Bourn as a fit with too many teams at this stage. How many teams are planning on contending and need a CF? Atlanta could shift Upton to LF-- yes. Similarly Baltimore could shift Jones to LF. Tampa Bay? Probably won't pay $13-15M/yr... Seems to me like he's running out of options.

Jan 07, 2013 10:03 AM on Monday, January 7
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

From a "just for fun" perspective I always wanted to see Wily Mo Pena get 600 PAs in a season just to see what his stat line would be. Reading this just put visions of Pena in my head. Along those lines-- in a hypothetical dream world where a team that just didn't care about winning-- (C'mon Astros, you know you want it) what do you think a Brandon Wood stat line would look like? Could he be a Mark Reynolds-type? .230, 30 HR, 200Ks? Again, kind of wondering just for fun. Thanks!

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 2

If we already purchased a hard copy of the BP 2012, how do we get our mitts on the updated material?

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

weird that we would both have the same thought at almost exactly the same time...

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

Any chance you could publish the "rosters" for these no turnover teams? As a fan, it would be fun to look at the 2009 No Turnover Braves (or the Dodgers, or the Mariners, etc) and see what made them great...

 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

I just signed up for the newsletter. Thanks!

Jan 27, 2010 9:50 AM on Juice
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 0

More frequent podcasts? I do tend to go to fangraphs to look up statistics, so a more friendly UI for that stuff would be helpful and it would probably increase traffic, but I love the podcasts. It's something I can listen to while I'm doing other stuff on the computer, or better yet-- baseball info in the car, on an airplane... you name it! The one thing I'd pay extra for is if content was pushed out to me. An article in my e-mail every day, or one full article with summaries of other new stuff I could go to. That way, if I "forget" to go to BP.com for a few days, I know what I'm missing!

Jan 27, 2010 5:41 AM on Juice
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: 2

Hard to analyze a trade that doesn't have all its parts public yet, but Halladay is significantly more valuable than Cliff Lee. Long track record of dominance, and more dominant in the AL East than Lee was in 2009. Not to mention Halladay's more of a groundball pitcher than Lee is, which would suit him better to Philadelphia. Lee, on the other hand, if he's going to Safeco, would be hurt less by allowing a few more flyballs. Like Lee to Seattle, Halladay to Philly... just a question of how the pieces come together...

Dec 14, 2009 1:57 PM on Floridians Breathe Easy
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -1

whoops, posted in the wrong place.

Dec 14, 2009 1:57 PM on The Angel of Death
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -3

Hard to analyze a trade that doesn't have all its parts public yet, but Halladay is significantly more valuable than Cliff Lee. Long track record of dominance, and more dominant in the AL East than Lee was in 2009. Not to mention Halladay's more of a groundball pitcher than Lee is, which would suit him better to Philadelphia. Lee, on the other hand, if he's going to Safeco, would be hurt less by allowing a few more flyballs. Like Lee to Seattle, Halladay to Philly... just a question of how the pieces come together...

Dec 14, 2009 1:56 PM on The Angel of Death
 
Tim Collins
(38485)
Comment rating: -1

Call me crazy, but Clement is 25 years old, he's probably not getting a ton better. Not to mention that the starting DH is Ken Griffey JR, and the starting first baseman is Russel Branyan. One could argue Clement, despite diminished prospect status if he can't catch, should be getting ABs at either catcher or first base in Seattle.

Mar 31, 2009 10:02 AM on AL MVP