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chico123
53 comments | -5 total rating | -0.09 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/3843
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

I believe: The depth charts r not even close to final Lester had a very odd 2007 recovering from cancer, which is part of his baseline; thus a low projection. Last year was terrible. A system should not exclude data. Pecota is pure quant. It should not cherry pick data. The qual anaalysis begins now and projections sb adjusted.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

The Sox could have signed LaPorta but Alvarez was going to Van. They cheaped out on the FL product and are void of any power prospects other than Anderson. Tom www.elguaposghost.com

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

I would compare Chapman to a draftee since he is 21 (I think) and not a FA? In this case, it is a terrible use of resources for an actual small market team. The Reds could use the $30M in the next three drafts to diversify their risk. Tom www.elguaposghost.com

Jan 12, 2010 1:15 PM on Impaled Rangers
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 5

Good luck, Joe. I hope you continue to write about baseball. I've enjoyed your writing for over a decade. Please let us know where you end up...maybe mainstream media, the old email list, twitter? And to my fellow readers, let not assume BP didn't want Joe. He could be getting a sweet deal from say ESPN, Fox, etc. Tom www.elguaposghost.com

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

Joe, it is great to see your good fastball again. One item that should have been mentioned is Selig likely used his power to approve change of ownership to score three big media contracts: InDemand/MLB Extra Innings, TBS, and MLB Network. Do the ends justify the means? Happy Festivus and other holidays to my fellow baseball fans! Tom www.elguaposghost.com

Dec 23, 2009 4:58 PM on The Braves' New World
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Miguel Cabrera playing in poor hitting parks may have something to do with him "only" hitting 30-39 hr a season. Another good trade by Cashman and company, although he is not a good fit for that park. Javy better have his change up working at home. What are the Braves doing? A good 4th OF for an AL #2/3 with only one year left on his contract? Tom www.elguaposghost.com

Dec 22, 2009 10:01 AM on Yankees Top 11 Prospects
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

ddrenzner, it has been reported for some time that the Red Sox have always liked Nick Johnson. I can certainly see Johnson getting most of the action at first with Vmart playing once a week. I've got to think they still love 400 OBP guys.

Dec 15, 2009 10:37 AM on No Lack of Lackey
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

"Speed's an asset that ages well..."? I thought players lost speed as they aged.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

ddrezner, Halladay came out and stated that he will not accept a trade during the season. The no-trade is big since it increases the possibility of fewer teams able to trade for Halladay.

Dec 08, 2009 12:04 PM on A Halladay Ultimatum
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

Why ask Jeter about playing in NYC? He has nothing to compare the experience against.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 2

Scutaro needs a new agent.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Christina, I think you have gone soft. The Jays sign two old, SSs that are out machines and you like the transactions. What gives?

Nov 30, 2009 9:50 AM on Turkey Talk
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

Joe, I would advise trademarking: "October's Tribute to Overrating Catcher Defense"

Oct 09, 2009 11:58 AM on Second Day Roundup
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Why use SNWP and not adjusted K/9 as the sauce does?

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

Next year, Greinke yellow or red light?

Sep 21, 2009 10:51 AM on Milestone Madness?
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

How many "real" fans do the Rays have?

Sep 06, 2009 1:13 PM on Weekend Update
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -3

Matsuzaka was a joke in the first inning. He threw a wild pitch in warm ups and the home run nearly made it into the Sam Adam bar or about five feet from me. The "national treasure" was beter in the second and showed some good velocity in the low-to-mid 90's. I have a hard time thinking he is going to be ready in about a week or after another start. Tom www.elguaposghost.blogspot.com

Sep 01, 2009 9:53 AM on Thinking Big
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

"Varitek isn't the MVP, but he does have a value higher than what we note because of those little things and the confidence the team—and especially the pitching staff—has in him." "In god we trust, all other must bring data." Are you replacing Tek with god? ;) Tom www.elguaposghost.blogspot.com

Aug 20, 2009 12:20 PM on Seeing Red
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Will, Any good comps for Liriano? Should we expect better production next season being three years from TJ? Thanks, Tom www.elguaposghost.blogspot.com

Aug 19, 2009 10:35 AM on All AL
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Hagadone did have TJ but the fact is he still has not pitched above A-ball and is 23. He better come on real quick next year to be a top prospect.

Aug 18, 2009 11:46 AM on August 18
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -3

Why not trade for Orlando Cabrera? He didn't cost the Twins much and he is better than Woodward.

Aug 11, 2009 5:27 PM on Drama Moves
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

wbricks, It seems like Cleveland had financial issues that lead to the early departures of Lee and VMart. It is too bad as they looked fairly well set up for 2010. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9324 As a Sox fan, I like the trade. If Masterson doesn't figure out how to get lefties out, then a 23 year-old coming off TJ pitching in low-A is the biggest part of the return for VMart. Your right not a single top prospect goes to Cleveland.

Aug 03, 2009 10:07 AM on AL East Deadline Roundup
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

Hoping South Siders appreciate Carlos Quentin's toughness. Others should take note of it as well when they state baseball players don't play through pain like other pros. It could just be the nature of the game and not the player's tolerance for pain.

Jul 30, 2009 12:09 PM on Save the Date!
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

It is my understanding that VORP accounts for innings pitched. I think it is a relatively riskier proposition for a team to satisfy the Jays asking price for Halladay, as historical marginal revenue curves may not be applicable this season. The only scenario that seems financially rationale is an owner that plans to sell the club in the near future.

Jul 20, 2009 7:39 PM on Get the Doctor, Now!
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

Each team and market has its own unique win-to-revenue ratio and in this recession, clubs are likely not very confident in their models. It appears that an average is being applied to each team. All thing being equal, which is never the case, the Giants have more of a financial incentive to acquire Doc than the Brewers as they play in a much bigger market.

Jul 20, 2009 12:52 PM on Get the Doctor, Now!
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Doesn't New Orleans reduce power #s too?

Jul 01, 2009 9:18 AM on July 1
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Mulvey sounds just like most of the Twins starters not named Liriano.

Jun 13, 2009 10:52 AM on June 12
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

If you need to currently subscribe to cable internet and YES to purchase the streaming feed, then I have a hard time understanding under what circumstances a household is going to pay even a nominal fee (maybe a NY household with Mets and NYY fans and one TV?). The lack of interest could derail the whole thing for sometime.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Any reason to think that Lowrie is going to come back and hit? Wrist injuries usually equal bad times at the plate.

May 25, 2009 3:59 PM on Rays of Gloom?
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Is Bowden changing his style with nearly 3.5 BB/9? He is supposed to be a control freak. Tom www.elguaposghost.blogspot.com

May 18, 2009 10:12 AM on Monday Ten Pack
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

Anything on Soria?

May 18, 2009 10:07 AM on Abuse
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

Buchholz had trouble with runners on base. The PawSox should put him in those situations by coming out of the pen. If he is still lights out, then The Free Clay Campaign will be started. Tom www.elguaposghost.blogspot.com

May 14, 2009 10:06 AM on May 14, 2009
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 2

http://shop.mlb.com/affiliate/index.jsp?clickid=botnav_affiliate_txt They have it already for merchandise. Tom elguaposghost.blogspot.com

May 07, 2009 12:15 PM on Affiliate Programs
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

What? Ryan Dent is now in the White Sox organization?

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

If blackouts are possible with embedded video, then MLB.tv should consider going free after their agreement with InDemand has ended. No need to upset your biggest partners. It would also give them time to build up their sales staff and further enhance the product. But without blackouts, transiting to an open MLB.tv would diminish territorial rights and franchise values.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Kotsay as a plan C isn't bad but they coudl have done better with Corey Patterson. He would have done the same thing as Kotsay, cost less, and been a pinch runner off the bench.

Apr 11, 2009 8:37 AM on AL Roster Roundup
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

I think Kotsay was signed because they are concerned about Rocco's ability to handle the OF on a daily basis when Drew and if Ellsbury gets hurt.

Apr 10, 2009 9:48 AM on AL Roster Roundup
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Is anyone else concerned about Snider's minor league strikeout numbers? An impact hitter usually doesn't swing-and-miss so much in the minors.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Doesn't MLBN's ownership structure with the big three cable companies make it more difficult to benefit from subcriber fees?

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Does Pedroia’s max effort type of swing make him more susceptible to ab and oblique stains/pulls? Thanks, Tom

Mar 25, 2009 9:58 AM on Boston Red Sox
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -6

The winter fas - Penny, Smoltz, Saito - all must be red but Oki - yellow, the remaining Manny - green, and the remaining Ramirez - red? Thank you, Tom

Mar 25, 2009 9:17 AM on Boston Red Sox
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -2

Blanks is like 180 of Pedroia.

Mar 20, 2009 10:17 AM on Peerless Prodigies
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Not buying - Jon Lester 160 IN and 4.45 ERA. He has an odd track record, which may be the reason for the conservative projection, but he dominated most of last year.

 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 1

Does PECOTA predict rookie hitters better than pitchers?

Feb 11, 2009 11:10 AM on Impact Rookies
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Oleoay - Foulke\'s contract with the Sox was similar to Tek\'s. A fact that was not part of the analysis is that Josh Bard\'s contract is not guaranteed.

Feb 11, 2009 5:56 AM on All the Moves
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Theo and the Sox also broke a \"gentlemen\'s agreement\" with NPB when they claimed Kevin Millar back in 2003. NPB should get everything in writing. Tom www.elguaposghost.com

Dec 07, 2008 1:36 PM on Winter Meetings Preview
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

If the Red Sox sign Teixeira, Youkilis to Cleveland for VMart. Thoughts?

Nov 17, 2008 12:49 PM on AL Central
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

The Sox can bring Lester back on normal rest for game six and then everyone goes in a seventh.

Oct 10, 2008 12:15 PM on Red Sox versus Rays
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: -1

Will, How about a link to Paul Lessard and Mike Reinold\'s blog? Thanks, Tom El Guapo\'s Ghost

Oct 09, 2008 12:26 PM on ALCS
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

I use a similar simple formula to rate pitchers for roto. The differences being I use expected hits and include HR*4.

Oct 03, 2008 9:34 AM on Missing Bats
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Why would Jason Bay be available? Thanks, Tom

Sep 17, 2008 9:41 AM on Living on the Edge
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

Joe, I agree with your comments. I think MLB will use the semantics to their advantage. If MLB wants they could gain leverage v the draftees by exploiting the NCAA\'s rules.

Sep 16, 2008 4:14 PM on Pedro-gate Update
 
chico123
(3843)
Comment rating: 0

“The second that the extensions were granted, MLB took the right of representation away from the players.” Agents are “Advisors”. Draftees are not a part of the Union. Scott Boras may have no legal right to act on Pedro Alvarez’s behalf. It is semantics but IF true, it damages the Union’s likely call for a heavy penalty.

Sep 16, 2008 12:19 PM on Pedro-gate Update