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"but only if such other franchise is located (1) within the home territory of the owner's NFL club, or (2) within a neutral area, i.e., any area that is not within the home territory of any NFL club;"
It seems to me that #1 isn't the issue at hand here. He would be eligible to buy the Dodgers because LA is a neutral area since there are no NFL teams there. (Unless San Diego has territorial rights, but that seems unlikely to me).
I think the Red Sox have to be happy with the Manny contract which was 8 years, $160 million.
Miguel Cabrera is four years through a 8n yr/$152.3M deal, and that one looks like it will work out fine seeing as though he's already given the Tigers something like $100M worth of value in those four years.
Jeter's 10 year deal was fine.
Dave Winfield signed an eight year deal with the Yankees if I remember right, and he was pretty good for them.
That's just 8+ year contacts, I'm sure there are some more six year deals that worked out fine.
I don't see Cabrera being much more likely to get injured at third then he would at first. My guess is that he will play third pretty much like he plays first...stationary.
One nit to pick though, the top WARP for the 2008 Cubs was Ryan Dempster with 4.45 compared to DeRosa's 4.38.
I'd been on the fence lately, but I think this article convinced me to renew my membership.
"I wouldn't suggest that Rick Sutcliffe is a better pitcher than Morris nor would I imagine anyone else would as well."
I think you could actually make that argument. At the very least they were both comparable. On their careers Morris has the slight edge in WARP 32.57 to 29.02, but in their seven year peaks Sutcliffe beats Morris by two wins, and his two best season were better then any season Morris had.
Morris was certainly the more durable pitcher (1200 more innings), but on a per inning basis, I think the argument could be made that Sutcliffe was the higher quality pitcher.
This definitely seems like a big win for the Cubs.
About where would you rank Rizzo on the top 100?
We don't how much they offered though. Maybe their number was $51.6 million, and they thought that was high enough over the Matsuzaka number.
I was talking about baseball-reference WAR, not WARP. It's too hard to sort WARP to find what I was looking for.
I'm sure there will be a year or two where Pujols surpasses his contract value if you figure $5 million per win, but my biggest issue is that the average full time first baseman is worth 3 wins. So if for seven or eight of the years Pujols is only worth one to two wins over average, wouldn't that $25 million per year been better spent spread out? Heck, Trumbo was worth almost three wins last year.
All that being said, I actually like Pujols to the Angels for $250 better then I would have liked him to the Cardinals for $220. At least with the DH the Angels will have some roster flexibility at the end of the contract, and I think Pujols will be able to play more games over the life of the contract. The Cardinals would have most likely been stuck with a below average first baseman for four or five years that was only playing 140 games a year.
Over the last ten years there has been about 3.75% inflation for player salaries, so if we assume the same for the next ten years, then Pujols will still need to be a 3.5 win player in his age 40 and 41 seasons. Only on position player has ever been worth 3.5 bWAR twice after the age of 40, and that was Carlton Fisk.
Also I don't think it's fair to say the Garza trade showed "questionable judgment". At the time of the trade, the majority of people thought that the Twins had made a great trade, ending up with the (supposed) best player in the deal.
Kevin, what do you think would be compensation for the Cubs to give to the Red Sox? How much is a GM worth?
Are you guys going to run the simulation for the playoffs?
I have to say, even though I've enjoyed a lot of the new writers, it is a little bit worrisome that almost all the long-time BP-ers are leaving.
I seem to remember the last time you guys did a series of articles like this that Ernie Banks was right at the top of the list. What about the new calculations made him drop so far?
Youkilis wasn't whining about playing baseball, he was sticking up for a teammate that's going through a really hard time in life. And as someone who has a spouse with cancer, I can tell you that no amount of money would make a difference when you are dealing with those kinds of health issues.
I don't normally respond to people in these comments, and I never give a negative to comments, but your's was just one of the dumbest things I've read in recent memory. You should have your commenting privileges taken away.
They could contract the Marlins and move the Rays to Miami. Please?
"Missing three games in April will have little effect on the standings in September..."
Is that really true though? Seeing as though the predictions are showing a five game difference between first and fourth place, it would seem that three games, at any point in the season, could end up meaning a lot.
I blame my Cubs fandom for my love of all things baseball, except for watching the actual games!
That's not quite true. I love watching the games, up until the Cubs are out of it. In other words, I watch until May at least.
Of course I think we could have all said the same thing about A-Rod when he was coming off a 9 WARP season with a .345 Tav, and now his contract isn't looking so hot.
You say that there is nobody better to gamble on then Pujols, but I would argue as of A-Rod's age 31 season he was the better bet since he had never had any real injuries to speak of. People have been talking about Pujols's elbow being ready to fall off for years, and there have also always been questions about what his real age is.
So, while I expect Pujols to give good value on his next contract, I think it is much less likely then you think.
What category did Shin-Soo Choo fall short on?
It's actually really easy to to get to San Francisco from the other side of the Bay. If you are in the East Bay you can drive over the Bay Bridge, take one of two ferry lines, or take Bart, which is the fastest. From the North Bay you can use the Golden Gate Bridge or one of the ferries.
I live in Alameda (which is an island off of Oakland) and work in SF, and it only takes me 45 minutes door to door in the middle of rush hour whether I take Bart or the bus.
Why does everyone keep talking about Meche like he was the first guy to leave a huge amount of money on the table when he retired? Ryne Sandberg was the second highest paid player in baseball when he retired midway through the 1994 season, and he still was under contract to make $5.1 million in 1995, and $7.1 million in 1996, plus whatever he gave up in 1994 by retiring in June. Compare those salaries to today's game, and Sandberg gave up a lot more.
THat was one of the most interesting articles I've read in a while. Great job.
Yeah, I know, I meant that post to be tounge in cheek.
On a more serious note, Willie Mays only had 12 MiLB homers in two partial seasons, which is a 55 to one ratio, not as big as Bagwell, but still significant.
This doesn't count what he did in his short tenure in the Negro League though, and I can't find any record of what he did there, so I don't know if he showed more power then.
Dave Winfield had infinitely more major League homers then minor league homers, seeing as though he never hit one in the minors (nor did he play a minor league game).
Ha...that was the first thing I thought of too.
Are the five star prospects something like the top 25 prospects in the game, or does the number of five star guys change from year to year depending on how much talent there is in the minors?
For what it's worth, Cliff lee threw 272 innings (counting playoffs) in 2009.
I don't really understand hwo the star levels work. It would seem to me that judging by your write up on him Jackson should be a five star prospect, seeing as though there were only seven players in baseball last year that were 20-20 on homers and stolen bases.
I think if I had a vote I would go with Cabrera for MVP, but it's not like it's a slam dunk win. Hamilton beats Cabrera in a lot of advanced stats (WARP, WAR, wOBA, TAv) so it's not an insult if Hamilton wins.
I like Cabrera's durability a lot which is why I give him the edge, but at the same time it's a lot harder to get good production out of Hamilton's position (plus he was a good fielder) then to get good production out of first base (where Miggy wasn't all that great).
In an article like this where they talk about what changes they would make to a team it wouldn't make much sense to talk about a guy that is going to be there for 6+ years.
I think this makes a good point. Even though Jeter has regressed a bunch, he's still the best shortstop on the market, so he would get more then he is really worth, even if he weren't THE CAPTAIN. The thing is, more then he is worth, and what the Yankees are apparently going to offer him are two very different things.
If I were Casheman, I'd start the offer at 2 years, $20 million and see where things go from there. I bet Jeter would lose a lot of endorsements if hee went to a smaller market, so whatever the Yankees offer him, it will most likely be worth more overall then anything anyone else would offer. The yankkes are a lot more important to Jeter then Jeter is to the Yankees.
How many Top 11's are you going to do a week?
I can't wait for these articles. They are always a highlight of my subscription.
I think that they should get rid of divisions, the unbalenced schedule, and interleauge play. They take the top four teams from each league and have three rounds of playoffs. At least it would be more likely that way to have the best teams in the playoffs.
Well his stance was that the Astros are so far from contending that none of those guys will be a part of the next playoff bound Astros team, so they might as well sell while the guys have good value, and then just throw out a team of scrubs next year. I'm not so sure that isn't the best move for the Astros at this point.
Pence and Bourn are nice players, but they aren't guys you build a team around. They are guys that when they are your third best outfielder, you feel pretty good about your team.
I don't know that you are being completely fair though. He recomends trading Bourn and Pence, getting a catcher, trading Chris Johnson, getting someone like Punto, and drafting as best you can.
In the Cubs GM for a day there was literally nothing other then sign a first baseman to a one year contract, and put Jeff Samardzija in the bullpen.
I realize that you probably didn't like what Steven had to say about the Astros, but it's not like he didn't have at least SOME suggestions.
Go back and reread the Cubs GM for a day. The recomendation there was "wait until the contracts are gone."
I've been enjoying this series of articles, but there have been a few that I would have liked to see a bit more thought put into, though I do understand that there are several teams that just don't really have much choice on what they can do.
Any idea what team Shapiro was refering to when he said "There’s probably only one team in baseball that spends significantly beyond their revenues"?
They are predicting a lot of sacrifices.
To avoid future problems like this, BP should set up their statistics pages the same way baseball-reference has them set up, where they have the player's stats split showing you what they did for each team, and then another row showing what they did combined.
This has been an annoyance for me for a long time.
Let me get this straight...you want the Cardinals to trade a 23 year old outfielder that had an .859 OPS for a 31 year old pitcher that had a league average ERA as well as possibly the worst outfielder in the game, AND you want the Cards to throw in a minor league pitcher too? Keep dreaming.
Of course it's not like this was the first time Peralta was at short while Cabrera was at second. They've been the double play combo for what? Four years?
yeah, I have to say I agree with Selig's approach here. There's no reason to grandstand about this with more then a year to go until the game is to be played. If come next June this law is still around and crappy, then address it. until then it's just taking away press for the baseball season.
I'm pretty sure this is showing what percentage of the total WARP for the life of the contract was amassed in each year. Say a guy had 15 WARP over a two year contract, but had a 10 WARP year and a 5 WARP year, then this would have shown 66% in the first year, and 33% in the second year.
Honestly, I read the weekend content on Monday morning, so as long as the total number of articles isn't dropping, then I won't notice a difference.
Obviously it's not what Kevin meant, but double digits would include 10-99 homers. I think Connor was just joking around.
What are your thoughts on Starlin Castro being called up? Is this just going to be a repeat of the Patterson/Pie debacles?
Really interesting article Matt. I'd love to see the other side of this story though...the least valuable players.
Unfortunately, I fear my Cubs would dominate that list.
What would you think is the timeframe for Chapman to get called up? at this point do you think he is just a September call up kind of guy? Or do you think he will be up before the All Star break?
I agree...mostly. My only question is whether or not tackling is the "safer" approach then tasing. Yes there is the occasional death from tasing, but getting into a fight isn't exactly safe.
I'm sure someone out there has done a study on which is more likely to end in bodily harm: tasing or tackling.
I'd be curious to see.
Ultimately, I lean towards thinking it was excessive. However, they needed to stop the guy somehow.
I've got Porcello, Fausto Carmona, and Aroldis Chapman. I also have Cliff Lee coming off the DL. Which of these three would you drop to make room for Lee?
So I've got Jhonny Peralta sucking up at bats at short in my roto league. The rest of my guys are doing well enough that I'm still in the top three, but I hate to see this kind of "production" on my team.
Do you think I would be better off just weathering the storm and hoping Peralta has another 2008 in him, of should I dump him and try to ride the hot hand until I find a good full time short stop?
I think will is trying to illustrate just how much teams are willing to go away as just a "sunk cost" rather then spend a bit more on the team health. A lot of teams don't want ot hire another trainer for $100K a year, but they don't blink an eye when they lose enough money to pay Willingham.
I understand what he's saying, but I think most people don't think of it as a stop light, but rather when you go higher, you get better, like most things are measured.
In other words, intuitivly, I would think that a green would be someone that is 90-100% likely to make it through the season injury free. Yellow would be 80-90%, red would be below that.
Thinking of it in these terms, when I see "high green", I think "very green", not almost yellow.
Get rid of the Wildcard round and replace it with the japan series. I think it could be kind of cool.
On the flip side of Jim Rice is bert Blyleven. When he retired, he just wasn't considered a Hall Of Fame caliber player. Over the las 20 years though more and more advanced stats have shown that he most definitely was that caliber of player.
People always say that a player doesn't accrue any more stats after they quit, so why not have a one and done voting process. I don't like this though, because while the player might not change, the way we look at the game definitely does, and I for on like that the voting gives a long time to figure out what a player's true worth was.
I would argue that it happened to Lou Whitaker. But then again that's what the veterans committee is supposed to be for. Hopefully they eventually get that to work right.
I actually kind of like the first ballot being only for the best of the best. If I had a vote I would probably only give first ballot votes to the Ricky Hendersons of the game.
That 2013 ballot is crazy. It makes me wonder, not counting the early ballots that had a backlog of candidates, what was the best first year ballot ever?
The thing is, the Orioles aren't going to be competitive this year or next. however, there is a good chance they will be in 2012. So if they had room in the salary this year and next for $6 million, and I would assume 2012 and beyond also, why not speand $9 million in 2012 and 2013 when they are more likely to be in the race?
I understand your point, but Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke aren't prospects. Neither are any of the other guys that will be free agents between now and 2013. This isn't an article about the top ten future Yankees, it's about the Yankees' Top 11 prospects, so it's a perfectly honest title to the article.
In what way has Beckett been consistantly better then Lackey? They have the same career ERA+, but Lackey has done it in more innings in fewer seasons. That and Lackey has never had a really terrible season like Beckett's 2005.
This is a really interesting piece. One thing I wonder though, wouldn't most of the HFA for a team be tied up in the fact that they get to bat last? Or is that not as big of a benefit as most people assume?
So, I'm in a keeper league where you get to keep two guys, and I have Longoria, Mauer, and Upton. Which two would you keep?
The only way I can understand this from the D-Backs point of view is if they are pretty certain that Scherzer's arm isn't going to hold up, and they just wanted someone that will pitch every fifth day, even if the results aren't as good.
The way I understand it, they need the player's consent to trade him until June, then they can do whatever they like.
Why exactly do you say Ichiro is a second slot hitter? I mean I think he would be good there, but why wouldn't he be considered a perfect elad off guy too? He gets on base a lot and has been a great baserunner. Isn't that pretty much the main criteria for a lead off hitter?
They got some pretty good stuff from the Cardinals for Holliday. Better then what they gave up for him at any rate.
Somebody did copy/paste wrong. Those slash stats are OBP/SLG/OPS, not AVE/OBP/SLG like normal. The right stats are:
I agree completely, I was just curious.
I assume that people have graded the umpires using pitchFX, but I've never seen the data. Do you know how accurate MLB umpires really are at calling balls and strikes?
I'll never understand why they didn't go for Adam Dunn last offseason. I wonder if they could get him for Jonathan Sanchez? If they could pull that off, and start Posey next year, I think their offensive attack would be so much better then it was this year. It was just painful to watch sometimes.
As a Cubs fan, I'd hate to see it happen, but if they really could get the Cubs to swap Bradley straight up for Rowand, I'd do that in a heartbeat. I went to about 1/3 of the Giants' home games this year, and I don't think Rowand hit the ball hard once. It reminded me a lot ofOmar Visquel last year.
Well, there's also the issue that the official scorer can give the win to the "most deserving" reliver. If a team decided they wanted a 30 game winner and brought the same guy in in every game they had a big lead in the 5th to get jsut one out, I doubt the official scorers would give they guy all those wins.
Well, I think teams save money by back loading the contracts because of inflation. Something that cost $10 million in 2000 is worth about $12.5 million today. A team can tell a guy they will pay him $20 million, but that will be seven years from now when it just isn't worth as much.
Four years into Rios' career (when he got the contract) he had a .288/.338/.453 for a 105 OPS+. At that same point in his career, Carlos Beltran had a .284/.342/.469 for a 104 OPS+. I can see where somebody would think Rios would have a Beltran-like career. Maybe he still will.
I think the real joke is Bobby Crosby's hitting...
I'm sure a big part of it is that he plays in one of the best hitter's parks in the league. It does still seem strange though.
One thing I like a lot about halladay and Sabathia over Santana is the innings pitched. Over the last three years Sabathia has 580, Halladay has 571.1 and Santana has 532.1. That's a pretty big difference, and when you think about what 50 innings of Met's relief work looks like you have to wonder if Sabathia isn't the more valuable pitcher.
The funny thing about that trade was how everyone thought the Twins had won it. I remember a bunch of articles talking about how the team that gets the best player is usually the winner and that the Twins got that best player.
it's a scary proposition to trade prospects for prospects.
How long do you think the Cubs will wait to move Vitters to AA? Is he expected to spend the whole year in A?
Is it ok for me to start getting excited at the prospect of the Cubs system producing a hitter?
But Sonnanstine entered the lineup in the bottom of the first. I don't see how it's any different.
Also, the quote was:
"He was the first starting pitcher in an AL batting order since Ken Brett..."
Which obviously isn't true.
Yeah, I thought it was weird to see them claim that too.
Here's the game:
For some reason Manny switched from DH to right before the right fielder had an at bat.
Also, if I do a search on B-R PI it says there have been 48 AL pitchers to have PA's against AL teams since 1976.
There's plenty of room in the world for both news and analysis. Something like Twitter is just new way of doing a news ticker. Just the headlines, nothing in-depth. You read the columns to get opinions on what the news means. Theformat is the same, it's just the media that has changed.
Also, I for one love to get news as fast as possible. I saw the latest issue of Sports Illistrated at the supermarket this weekend and the cover story was about the Sweet Sixteen. I turned to my girlfriend and said "this is why printed media is going to die." The cover of that magazine did nothing to entice me to buy it, because I already had heard all the news they had to offer.
Rentaria off Nagy in 1997.
I\'m not a huge fan of going to the Playboy website at work...a bit of warning next time would be appreciated.
It\'s not like Citi just wanted to give the Mets money for no reason. Companies need to advertise if they want to be taken seriously. Is there some different kind of advertising that they could use the TARP funds for that would be more to your liking?
Ooo...maybe Alvin Davis. There\'s a career that fell off a ledge.
I\'d guess Darryl Strawberry, not Ben Grieve. Other then that, your other two choices seem spot on.
I think the right way to eat some Hog Island oysters is to shuck them, and then eat them. Sure it\'s nice to cook them with other things once in a while, but I\'ll take them raw any day.
Seeing as though Fontenot is the lefty, I would guess that he will get 400+ at bats, unless last year\'s good hitting was a fluke.
Sorry I didn\'t point out my birthday. It\'s May 12th.
I decided to check out my birthday because I knew Lou Whitaker, Yogi Berra, and Felipe Alou were all born that day, and I wasn\'t disspointed. I was able to put together and above average team.
Pos Player OPS+ Career high OPS+
C Yogi Berra 125 142
1B Jim Poole 86 100
2B Lou Whitaker 116 141
3B Lave Cross 100 132
SS Felipe Lopez 89 118
LF Kevin Bass 105 134
CF Jimmy Wolf 118 167
RF Felipe Alou 113 142
DH Joe Dugan 82 108
B (C) Joe Nolan 95 120
B (IF) Wes Helms 93 149
B (IF) Ted Kubiak 73 97
B (OF) Earl McNeely 78 104
Pos Player ERA+ Career high ERA+
SP1 Hank Borowy 104 136
SP2 George Kaiserling 118 127
SP3 Gene Krapp 102 132
SP4 Mark Clark 93 122
SP5 Tom Timmermann 97 110
R Floyd Weaver 69 87
R Pat Darcy 86 100
R Al Schulz 90 101
R Dutch Henry 95 111
R Johnny Hetki 91 113
CL Archie McKain 112 168
I would love to see a sortable all-time leaders page for all the BP stats (WARP, VORP, etc). If that is too much to ask for, then team up with Baseball Reference so that they can do it!
\"His best stretch was from 1993-96, when he won four consecutive National League Cy Young Awards with the Braves\"
Maddux\'s four consecutive Cy Young\'s were from 1992-1995, and in \'92 he was with the Cubs.
My personal favorite part of the voting this year is that, by WARP, Ryan Howard was the ninth best player...on the Phillies.
WHERE IS ALL THE JAIME MOYER FOR MVP TALK?!?!
\"Pedroia was third in the AL and second among hitters in WARP3 with a 10.4 mark (Justin Morneau was tops at 11.8),\"
I think you meant Joe Mauer not Justin Morneau. The Twins should really trade one of them so it\'s not so confusing.
Though it would seem that the best time to build a stadium is when there is as little demand for construction workers as possible. If he can afford to wait out the housing problems, he could probably get the stadium built for cheaper then if he waits until the market improves. By the time you can see a bubble, it\'s usually to late to make any money.