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Meezerman
2 comments | 0 total rating | 0.00 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/37892
Meezerman
(37892)
Comment rating: 0

Even with the revisions, the odds are ridiculous. You gave the Twins, an 87 win team in a weak division, with two players who helped them win even that many on the DL (Morneau and Slowey), about the same odds of upsetting the Yankees (best team in baseball) as the Angels (3rd best) had of "upsetting" the Red Sox (2nd best). And then somehow, the Twins have almost the same odds of winning the WS as the Angels and Rockies combined? Even now, the Angels have only an 8% chance of winning the WS, despite a 26% chance of getting there (which is itself absurdly low). So the Halos have less than a 1/3 chance of winning the WS, despite having homefield advantage against a much weaker league? Go back and tweak it some more.

Oct 16, 2009 2:47 PM on Allez les Expos!
 
Meezerman
(37892)
Comment rating: 0

While getting swept in a September series matters more if they're in the race, getting swept in April is what determines this "if." Suppose Philly gets off to a monster start and has a 15 game lead in September. Now, getting swept in September doesn't matter at all. What determines the size of Philly's division lead in September? Games in April, May, June, etc.