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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

I think Meg was on three times! (Once for about 30 seconds.) I'd be interested in seeing how the Mariners' projection compares to the all-time Change Index teams.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Pitch, episode four.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I tried to investigate the same subject in one of my first BP pieces. Not sure every effect I found was statistically significant, but <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8706">here it is.</a>

Jul 19, 2016 8:56 AM on Catches Up With You?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

I'd be interested in seeing some tracking-based stats (release point, maybe spin or perceived velocity) incorporated into this to get closer to the "different looks" effect <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=16969">Jerry Dipoto</a></span> said he was going for (which Sam described <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25940">here</a>).

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

Do you have the average slash lines of the high/low-contact and high/low-LD groups against the league as a whole? Wondering if one or the other tends to be better against everyone, not just against elite relievers. (I don't doubt that there is some real effect here--I once <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kansas-city-royals-fastball-velocity-contact/">tried to detect one myself</a>--but I can't tell whether these tables settle it one way or another.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

Also, wow: Garrett was already 0-for-5 against Fingers in that series, including a strikeout earlier in the same game. And Garrett had singled against Knowles the day before. Evidently the A's did sort of the same thing with Fingers and Knowles in Game 1, except that time they pulled Fingers with two outs to go.

Jun 12, 2016 11:04 AM on The State of the Closer
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

I was curious... <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=24546">Darold Knowles</a></span> vs. LHB, 1973: .267/.325/.371 <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=21872">Rollie Fingers</a></span> vs. LHB, 1973: .215/.280/.297

Jun 12, 2016 10:51 AM on The State of the Closer
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks! Glad you and your friend are enjoying it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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In that case, your world was made by episodes 344, 664, 729, and 853.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Sadly, seems not to be true: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/bird-land-the-fulgham-riddle/article_23242aa6-b1fa-11df-84ab-0017a4a78c22.html

May 19, 2015 11:03 AM on Rickey Henderson's OBP
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Hi, me from the past. Me from the future here. Shaq Thompson just got drafted. Thought you'd want to know.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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"Bird Song" by Florence and the Machine.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Didn't think of that! Good comp.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Posted that and another link in the Facebook group, but I can also post it here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/extending-ryan-howard-is-not-what-killed-the-phillies/

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Precedent! Thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yeah, not a bad example, although he obviously had more impressive high points than our hypothetical guy--a handful of five-win seasons (according to B-Ref), two second-place Cy Young finishes, etc.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks, I'll add a note in the Facebook group.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes: bbp.cx/a/24064. Will take time to pay dividends, though.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I wrote about the Royals' outfield, if you're interested. I used some advanced/applicable defensive stats.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Sam was in a car!

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Congratulations received!

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Down goes Zimmerman.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks for all the kind words, everyone. I hope you'll continue to support BP, and I also hope to see you around Grantland.

Jul 14, 2014 12:24 AM on Forever Changes
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I need to work on letting go.

Jul 11, 2014 3:00 PM on Alcantara Can Stay
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I'm not leaving the Facebook group!

Jul 11, 2014 12:30 PM on Forever Changes
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's not a choice by BP. That's how MLBAM's embedded videos display.

Jul 11, 2014 12:03 PM on Alcantara Can Stay
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Don't die! Read the last line of the article.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Done.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jul 08, 2014 1:12 PM on Matt Adams Powers Up
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Good point. Reference to Towers removed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's Gilbert & Sullivan. "I've Got a Little List" from The Mikado.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed the first part. See comment above for the second part.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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That line is intended to list the team he plays for now.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed, thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Good one!

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed. No longer meta.

Jul 02, 2014 7:58 AM on Domingo Santana
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jul 01, 2014 4:44 AM on Davis Downs the A's
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Also fixed.

Jun 30, 2014 8:52 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/30
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed. (Jim Johnson pitched the 12th and 13th.

Jun 30, 2014 7:04 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/30
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23675

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 27, 2014 7:27 AM on The Killer Cs
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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From: Andrew Friedman To: Jack Z I think David made his feelings about Seattle pretty clear. Still interested?

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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He's faced too many batters.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Added.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Done.

Jun 24, 2014 6:44 AM on Marco Gonzales
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Mediocre would be a big improvement.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 20, 2014 6:09 AM on Lucas Giolito
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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"No Language in Our Lungs" by XTC

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Was 11th on the overperformers list.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 19, 2014 5:49 AM on Another No-No
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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No, not yet.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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The most recent one left the bat at 110.7 mph and had a "true distance" of 366 feet. The one from 2010 left the bat at 113.3 mph and had a "true distance" of 389 feet.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yeah, I mentioned that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It could be if the no. 1 catcher for the Mariners is also one of the hidden elite players in baseball, though. Anyway, we weren't aiming for internal consistency. We had 29 participants, and everyone's draft board looked different, just like it would in an actual draft.

Jun 17, 2014 7:59 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

I don't know. I probably wouldn't have picked him there, but I think it's a defensible decision. We didn't ask anyone to make a contrarian pick to add intrigue to the list.

Jun 17, 2014 7:57 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

It's not just that he's there, it's that he's there and also has upside (at least in the eyes of the person who picked him). I doubt Leake would've been picked ahead of Strasburg, though I'm sure he would've gone early (and rightfully so). Proven league-average starters are nothing to sneeze at.

Jun 17, 2014 7:49 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

I don't think we had any ulterior motives. The redraft was more about taking the players we thought were the top talents than considering team needs, so I don't think Castro's presence on the Astros really entered into the decision.

Jun 17, 2014 7:32 AM on Whom Would We Pick Now?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

Fixed.

Jun 16, 2014 8:36 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/16
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 11, 2014 7:02 AM on A Wild One at Coors
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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The authors weren't instructed to stick with first-rounders. Anyone drafted in 2013 was eligible.

Jun 10, 2014 7:59 AM on How Much Has Changed?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 10, 2014 4:47 AM on How Much Has Changed?
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 09, 2014 9:09 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/9
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Jun 05, 2014 11:00 AM on Cam Bedrosian
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, you're right that the outside strike is more likely to lefties, but the batter handedness is factored into the strike probability, so that should be accounted for.

Jun 04, 2014 11:36 AM on May in Catcher Framing
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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And had they not lost Bobby Abreu in the expansion draft.

Jun 04, 2014 9:03 AM on 11 Draft Day What-Ifs
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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You foiled my scheme to link to two of my articles in one Unfiltered. Thanks, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Sam's subject is whoever had the best game, so that's up to Andrelton. (But Sam has written aboutSimmons.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's linked in the first sentence.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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We talked about something like that on this episode of Effectively Wild.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

May 29, 2014 10:06 AM on Seventh Edition
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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See my comment above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Re: the last two comments, see the note at the bottom of the page.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

May 27, 2014 9:52 AM on Intro and Itinerary
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's a holiday weekend. We'll have new content tomorrow.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Also, Ortiz was in the question.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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See the third graph.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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No, they didn't. Sam and I discussed that on the podcast--Daniels said: "In this case, a cervical MRI, at least for us, has not been part of our standard physical. A guy that had no history and no documentation, no treatment and no issues that anyone was aware of, had we done a physical, we wouldn't have done a cervical MRI. There may be other clubs that do that as standard practice. We're going to look into that. The bigger question is, 'How do we get better?'"

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Showing up okay on my end. Try refreshing.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Sam wrote about him for a Lineup Card a few weeks ago.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Sam beat you to the same joke on the podcast.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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For the record: We said we weren't worried about Trout before that walk-off homer.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Not a lot of real estate there to add text, but if you mouse over the team logos, the team names pop up.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Also fixed.

May 12, 2014 8:26 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up, 5/12
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

May 12, 2014 8:12 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up, 5/12
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Click the link at the end of that sentence.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Russell says it could be done, but it would take four hours to run. Have pity on the man.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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We removed the phrase to avoid further confusion.

May 08, 2014 6:33 AM on May 7, 2014
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, it was a tough query to construct, but nothing Russell Carleton couldn't handle.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yeah, Stewart has said some things in the past that might make you wonder whether he has an inflated sense of his own skills. On the other hand, he's a former fourth-overall-rated prospect who's had a 25-homer season in the majors. Going from that to struggling to stick in the big leagues can't be an easy adjustment to make.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
Comment rating: -

Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, we might start linking to each article in an Unfiltered post.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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If he's pressing, it hasn't hurt his production.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Then you'll love RPA+!

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Well, I don't think it's arbitrary--it's .260 because that's about what the league-average BA has been over time. (If you take a straight average of each season's league-wide BA since 1901, you get .262). That's supposed to make it more accessible to people who grew up using batting average to evaluate players. And the point of pegging it to one number is that it's much easier to tell at a glance whether someone is above or below average--it saves you the step of checking to see what the league average was in a particular season. It's like tying a league-average ERA+ or OPS+ to 100. Would you prefer that it be 94 in some years and 107 in others?

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Works for me. Try refreshing.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks, Matthew (and everyone else).

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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That one wasn't published at BP, no.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Don't underestimate him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Apr 18, 2014 9:23 AM on Meltdown in Minnesota
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Right, it's like having a running start.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, will do starting tomorrow.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Click on the Andrew Koo article I linked to to see the full list (minus Garcia).

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Oops, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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All loading for me.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Added slowest starters and fastest relievers. Wonder if catcher pace is a thing...

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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The umpire zones have become much more accurate and closely aligned since the pre-QuesTec, pre-PITCHf/x era. What connection do you see between umpire zones and the pace of play?

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, you'd need to try to control for other factors if you wanted to completely isolate the player's context-neutral slowness.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Lineup Cards aren't rankings, and they're not intended to be comprehensive. Unfortunately, there might be more serious injuries right now than there are BP staff members.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Number of decimal places reduced.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks, Alan, I made that change.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's "I'm Hurtin'" by the excellent Roy Orbison. You can listen to the whole thing here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Watched that recently.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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In my case, it just meant that I have some reservations about his performance in the short term, mostly because of his control issues. I wouldn't yet pick him as a buy-low or breakout candidate, basically (even if he were healthy). It's probably something I'm more inclined to say about someone for whom expectations are high (as they are in Moore's case, thanks to his no. 1 overall prospect ranking and low ERA/All-Star appearance/ninth-place AL Cy Young finish last season).

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Just noticed that Guilder Rodriguez has allowed as many homers as he's hit. (He's made two pitching appearances.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I mentioned that. Close call.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Maybe it's time for us to use BP's status as a credentialed outlet to do something about the lack of publicly available body fat data. I'll request daily press passes for you if you bring your own calipers.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Nothing like a little mournful Mangum to get people pumped up for a podcast.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's embedded now.

Apr 07, 2014 6:47 AM on Weekend Wrap-Up
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Apr 07, 2014 6:11 AM on The More Yunel
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Spring training game.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Right, .280 is his projected OBP.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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After the sixth, the crew chief can initiate a review, but the manager can still issue a challenge if he has one remaining.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
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I reserve the right to revise my opinion of this extension if it turns out that anyone can clone Trout.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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And now he's listed as one!

Mar 28, 2014 8:07 AM on Saves
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I do!

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Mar 28, 2014 4:13 AM on Saves
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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We'll probably have a post on this when the series concludes.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Teamwide sim, so no stats for individuals. Let your imagination run wild.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, all games are archived and accessible later.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Are you a Premium subscriber? (The spreadsheet isn't accessible to monthly subscribers.) If so, how are you trying to download it?

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Mentioned in the article--122. Which actually isn't that scary, though maybe more scary for a 20-year-old.

Mar 18, 2014 7:32 AM on Kerry Wood's 20-K Game
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's embedded at the bottom of the article. You can click to watch it on YouTube.

Mar 18, 2014 6:40 AM on Kerry Wood's 20-K Game
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Isn't that a reason to subscribe?

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Mar 14, 2014 10:43 AM on Third Edition
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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My fault, Dan had it that way and I changed it. Fixed.

Mar 13, 2014 9:51 PM on Competition in Coors
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Mar 12, 2014 1:39 AM on March 11, 2014
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Wouldn't think so, unless Diaz proves to be better than expected and Wong worse.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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See a couple comments up.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, he would, and now he is. Jason says that doesn't change the Angels' overall ranking.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I don't know. COMMANDf/x does that currently, though I've heard that it hasn't been especially useful. As I mentioned, the camera/radar hybrid can't yet track extremities, but I'm not sure whether that would include a catcher's glove. Nor do I know whether the new system would be able to see the movement, or whether it would be blocked by the batter's and umpire's bodies. I think CFX comes from a center field camera and might require some post-processing.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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No, he was omitted because he wasn't on the team when the Tigers Top 10 was published. He should rank sixth (and now does).

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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I tried to figure that out here here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Guess who's subscribed to comments.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Added him, which bumped the Yankees up a couple spots. Tanaka wasn't ranked on the Yankees' Top 10 prospects list, so he wasn't included in the original list of the team's 25-and-under talents.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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It's independent of position.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Zachary noted that "Average playing time was almost identical before and after moves off catcher."

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Yes, I linked to/quoted from that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Something tells me Daric Barton wouldn't be a big hit in Cincinnati either.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Thanks, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Sam mentioned that in the penultimate paragraph.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Right, not in PFM. PFM is based on the depth charts.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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He's mentioned above.

Feb 25, 2014 5:55 AM on Best Hit/Power
 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Hard to say, right? You have to figure that Cruz will be tested more often than the typical player, and that the penalty he'd face if caught again would be steep. He's aware of both of those things, so he might be less likely to try to get away with it again. On the other hand, he's already demonstrated that he has no moral qualms when it comes to PEDs (not enough to prevent him from taking them, anyway), which would seem to make another offense more likely. I'm not totally sure which way the arrow points.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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When the Padres traded for Smith, I wrote: "He might miss Melvin’s efforts to limit his exposure to lefties, but at least we know he can see—after undergoing LASIK surgery following a summer slump, he hit .341/.431/.568 in a small sample the rest of the way. If you’re a Padres fan searching for upside, you can cling to the hope that Smith that won’t make any more outs now that he’s no longer astigmatic." Fingers crossed!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Right, retired/suspended players aren't included in our depth charts and don't affect team projections. We just leave them in the spreadsheet in case people are curious about what they would do if active.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Feb 24, 2014 9:08 AM on Extending Trout
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Your prize is in the mail.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, that's a very good comp.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Huh, no idea how that got there. Just uploaded a fixed version, should be downloadable soon.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You could email me, but comments are okay.

Feb 20, 2014 5:44 AM on Best Speed/Makeup
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Feb 20, 2014 5:40 AM on Best Speed/Makeup
 
Ben Lindbergh
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In general, right-handed hitters, groundball hitters, and faster hitters reach on error more often. Here's a Clubhouse Confidential segment about it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Of course--good catch. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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A slight denominator mistake in a spreadsheet skewed the results slightly--they're now fixed and updated in the article. Jeter's numbers barely change; Cano goes from losing six hits a season to losing only four, which makes his lack of hustle look even less important. Thanks to reader Barry for catching the mistake.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That only happens when we hit you with our cars.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Percentiles will be published soon.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Each tab should be in descending order of projected WARP.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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In the right-most column on the PECOTA spreadsheet.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's accessible again now.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Denied access to the spreadsheet?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I can't tell if you're seriously mocking the satire or satirically mocking the satire. I guess that means this was a success.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That's a good point, but by the time a new GM is in place, the value of those assets may have expired.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not there yet. They will be.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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They're relative to production over the past five years (weighted). TAv for hitters, FRA for pitchers.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Realized that while writing, forgot to fix. Fixed now.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Feb 12, 2014 2:35 PM on Miami Marlins
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm not sure Amaro knows it's not.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Hey, Burnett to the Phillies wasn't what I said.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed the name. Sorry about that, Jon.

Feb 06, 2014 8:41 AM on Entropy and the Eephus
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I like live-tweets. I just don't like live-tweets about how many outs there.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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No one tell Cistulli.

Feb 04, 2014 10:54 AM on Parsing the PECOTAs
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The Depth Charts and Visual Depth Charts contain the answers you seek.

Feb 04, 2014 10:44 AM on Parsing the PECOTAs
 
Ben Lindbergh
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You make a fine point. Done.

Feb 04, 2014 9:48 AM on Parsing the PECOTAs
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just put up an article about some projections of interest here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I should've mentioned that Jose Valentin (listed as the best historical candidate to have hit exclusively from the left side) did experiment with giving up switch-hitting at times. See post (and comments) here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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The first group in each chart contains the guys who would improve if they hit right-handed exclusively (against both righties and lefties). The first column is their career PA total vs. LHP (because the splits don't "stabilize" until there's a sample of 600 PA vs. LHP). Second column is their actual career TAv. Third column is an estimate of what their career TAv would've been as a right-handed hitter only.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, Shaun! Wish we could reach all of the old Baseball Today listeners. I was one of them.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Quick note for those of you who may have read this early, come back to check the comments, and noticed a change: because of some confusion between documents, the list was originally posted with Jose Ortiz ranked eighth. He should have been (and now is) listed 10th.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's in there now.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Jan 29, 2014 9:57 PM on Sliced and Diced
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Added another response from a straggler, bringing the total to 13 from 12 teams. This one put Tanaka between Bailey and Masterson.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Received a 12th response (ranked Strasburg, Latos, Tanaka, Bailey, Masterson, Cahill) and updated the numbers accordingly.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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If anyone is interested in hearing more about this subject, Sam and I spoke to Dan about it on the podcast yesterday.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, you have to go through the same old exercise to justify it that we always do. If the going rate for a win is close to $7 million, and a win is worth more to the Yankees because they're close to being playoff-caliber and because they have more financial incentive to make the playoffs than every other team...and given that they have a terrible farm system and there are fewer good free agents of any age available these days, let alone 25-year-old ones...and considering that their TV revenue just went up to something like $150 million a year...and so on. You can make a case for why it made sense for them to do it when it might not have for most other teams. At this point, I'm more interested in how good the player is going to be and how well he fits the roster than I am in how much he's making.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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One person took Masterson over Tanaka, but Tanaka over Latos and Bailey. And as I mentioned, another person took Tanaka over Strasburg (but not over Latos and Bailey).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for your input, everyone. Article is up.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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However you want to define it, really, but WAR(P) is as good an answer as any. Just imagine that you have an empty rotation spot, you can fill it with one of the two pitchers you're picking between, and money isn't a concern.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed now.

Jan 28, 2014 7:12 AM on Sliced and Diced
 
Ben Lindbergh
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This is the first, the start of a series. Nick will be going position-by-position.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, assumed you hadn't seen that. It was a while ago.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Nice. Probably could've done 10 of these for some teams. Mariners alone would've been an article.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thought the same thing. I'd hate to see the Bottom Commenter.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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We'll work on it.

Jan 24, 2014 12:59 PM on Who Yu Gonna Call?
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ineligible due to death

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, pro scouting, amateur scouting, and player development are different departments with different personnel. A weakness in one (or two) doesn't necessarily carry over to the other(s).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, now we know the answer to "Who's next?"

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for the shout out.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Which sort of supports my point, I think. With so many unforeseeable events dictating transactions, why make a public payroll pronouncement far in advance that you don't know if you'll be able to stick to? Not ridiculing going over $189, either. They're the Yankees. Over $189 is where they should be.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well geez, why didn't you say something

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Don't have an exact date, but in the past we've tended to publish the spreadsheet right around the release date of the Annual (February 11th this year, though it often ships early). I'd expect this year's schedule to look similar.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That's what Twitter and email are for. But I can virtually guarantee a response within 12 hours if you mention Patrick Swayze.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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It does now. Also enlarged the embedded version.

Jan 17, 2014 3:40 AM on Catchers
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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For now, this is worth watching again.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Maybe you're making a "modest proposal" joke, but if not, the denominator used to determine the candidate's percentage is the number of ballots, not the number of filled ballot slots, so it doesn't work this way.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's not inconsistent treatment, because motive matters. Yes, voters have been criticized (fairly) for omitting obviously deserving candidates from their ballots on the grounds that if Legend X and Legend Y didn't get in on their first ballots, then Legend Z shouldn't, either. I'm okay with excoriating anyone who didn't vote for Maddux because they didn't think he was a Hall of Fame-caliber player, or because they don't vote for first-ballot candidates as a rule. That's not what we're talking about here. Jason thought 16 players were worthy of induction, including Maddux, and he knew that Maddux wouldn't need his vote to top the 75 percent threshold. So he used his top 10 spots on other deserving candidates for whom his vote was more likely to make a difference. Every BP voter thought Maddux was a deserving Hall of Famer, and no one withheld a vote for him based on the "Well, Mays wasn't unanimous..." argument, so I don't see any inconsistency here. If an actual Hall of Fame voter left Maddux off his 10-player ballot for the same reason that Jason did (and some of the 16 who didn't vote for Maddux may have), I wouldn't have a problem with that either.

Jan 10, 2014 12:57 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Under the current voting system, I wouldn't question anyone who excluded Maddux from his or her top 10 for the reason Jason did, BBWAA member or not.

Jan 09, 2014 10:59 PM on The 2014 Results
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Aw.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, though they were also able to see the ballots of the voters who had already entered their selections. We asked them to form their own opinions before looking at the spreadsheet.

Jan 08, 2014 8:38 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Right. No one who voted here thought Maddux wasn't a worthy Hall of Famer (or even a worthy first-ballot Hall of Famer, if you want to draw a distinction).

Jan 08, 2014 8:26 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Because I'm up and Jason isn't, I'll attempt to answer for him for now: Jason included Maddux on his expanded ballot, but left him off his top 10 because he supported 16 players and wanted to give the vote to someone he thought would receive less support (Alan Trammell, for instance). It's not a knock on Maddux, just a strategic approach to voting with a 10-player limit.

Jan 08, 2014 3:41 AM on The 2014 Results
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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The "Jonny Gomes' Misfit Helmet" heading links to the video.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, when we sent this topic out to the staff, we used Beltre's head phobia as an example of what we were looking for. Consequently, no one claimed it, but it's definitely deserving.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You must have missed Episode 308!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Getting on base more than 36 percent of the time is pretty impressive in today's offensive environment. AL average OBP was .320 this season (.319 for LF, .324 for RF and 3B, .326 for DH, .334 for 1B).

Dec 15, 2013 10:50 AM on Omar Comin'
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks. And there was one!

Dec 14, 2013 9:11 AM on Omar Comin'
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The platoon splits section on Cano's player card might be helpful here.

Dec 13, 2013 1:04 PM on Robinson Cano
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Interesting. The last article I linked there shows the impact on batters, but not broken down that way.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Throws to first are recorded in Retrosheet, though I don't think it distinguishes between casual throws and real pickoff attempts. Russell Carleton has written a bunch of stuff that draws on that data: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22155 http://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2007/03/31/on-throwing-to-first-part-i/ http://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2007/04/06/on-throwing-to-first-part-ii/ And there was this at BP a few years ago: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9431

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed, thanks.

Dec 13, 2013 10:16 AM on Scouting the Picks
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Here's some stuff: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5161 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7591 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7608 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12453 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12538 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12570 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16673 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19003

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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They might trade Gardner, but I don't think they'd trade Gardner for that reason.

Dec 08, 2013 12:53 PM on The AL East Rearms
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Now you can!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I plan to make one more attempt.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Nope, not sure. Never sure unless he says so, which he (surprisingly) sometimes does.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's linked in the post above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, reports seem to indicate that use was widespread prior to the start of the testing program. Other reports indicate that it's been much less widespread since. The relative rarity of positive tests could mean that many players are still taking PEDs and getting away with it, but it could also mean that the use has been dialed back. Similarly, the lack of second positive tests could mean that players get smarter about cheating after their first bust, but it could also mean that they stop trying. It's hard to say what the truth is. It's worth pointing out, though, that once you've tested positive once, you get tested more often. As for the Phiten analogy--it's not perfect, but I don't think it's fair to call those things superstition, either. You might be right that few would use them if they were prohibited (although that might make them even more convinced of their potency), but at least some of the players who wear them now believe that they work, which (for me) is enough to doubt their judgment about the degree to which PEDs actually enhance performance. They're looking for an edge and willing to try anything, and the trainer/shady Bosch-type figure who's peddling the PEDs and stands to profit isn't necessarily going to be honest about their effects.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm far from an expert, but from what I've read, steroid users tend to lose most or all of the muscle/strength they gain while juicing when they go off cycle. I'd guess that if a player took something to get bigger and stronger, then stopped taking it and continued training the same way, he'd eventually taper down to whatever default frame his genetics dictate. Mostly speculation, though.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Couple things: I don't know how much PEDs help (I'm sure it varies, depending on the PED and the person), but the fact that the players are convinced that they work wonders doesn't sway me much. These are the same people who wear Phiten necklaces because they think they have performance-enhancing powers. As for the first point, I think it would be pretty risky for a team that believed that a player was made much more productive by PEDs to give a ton of money to that player even after he'd been busted. You have to figure that the guy will be a little less likely to use after sitting out for 50 games, losing salary, and attractive negative attention. And if he does continue to use--well, he's already proven that he doesn't know how to do it without eluding detection. Maybe he'll get luckier next time, but if he doesn't, you'll be left with a big hole to fill for 100 games, with little or no notice. Unless you think teams are actively working with players to help them take PEDs without testing positive--and I don't, though I wouldn't be surprised if that had happened at some point before testing was in place--it would be a big leap of faith for them to take.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sam and I discussed this on the podcast today. No impediment to one, no, but not necessarily a means to one, either. For all we know, if Peralta hadn't been caught, he might have landed an even larger deal. And he'd still have the $1.64 million in salary he forfeited last season.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think I've responded to similar comments you've made in the past. Since you're still making them, whatever I said must not have worked then, and probably won't work now (though I thank you for continuing to subscribe to our despicable site nonetheless!). But in case any other readers are curious, I'll answer anyway. I'm aware of the limitations of publicly available defensive statistics, and I try to weight them appropriately. The larger the sample size, and the more agreement between metrics, the more confident I am that the ratings are reflecting reality. We now have a three-plus-season sample that says that Peralta has become a better shortstop. It's not conclusive, but it's not something I would want to completely dismiss. I'm not so confident in my own evaluation of whatever small percentage of Peralta's playing time I've seen that I would disregard, among other things, the assessment of a company that has watched and graded the difficulty of every one of his plays. But in this case, the evidence that's more persuasive to me is, as I wrote, the way teams have treated him. It's not fair to say that two organizations have decided Peralta couldn't play shortstop. One (the Indians) decided he couldn't, or at least that he couldn't as well as a significantly younger Adrubal Cabrera. But the Tigers traded for Peralta to play shortstop, and after seeing him do so up close, decided to bring him back for the next three years to continue playing shortstop. They traded for Jose Iglesias not because Peralta was incapable of playing the position, but because he was about to be suspended for 50 games (and maybe also because he was about to become extremely expensive). They continued to play Iglesias at short after Peralta came back because A) he's their future for the next five years and B) he's a hell of a fielder. Now that we know that the Cardinals think Peralta can play short, by my count, it's one organization (four years ago) against, and two in favor. Peralta's defensive stats and treatment by teams tell the same story. As for the financial benefits of PED use--I don't doubt that at some point, some player has made more money due to PEDs. But I don't know what the proof you're referring to is, unless I missed a verified link between Melky's PED use and his 2012 BABIP, or maybe Alex Anthopoulos saying, "Yes, we signed him because he took testosterone." If anything, Melky seems like an odd example to use as support for the idea that PED use leads to big paydays--the contract he got wasn't particularly impressive, given what he was worth to San Francisco before his suspension. Re: PECOTA, and the fact that its historical comps could be skewed somehow by steroid use: I'm not sure what solution you're proposing. Should we stop trying to project performance at all? Or try to build a projection system based on extremely spotty knowledge about which players were juicing, and when? As I mentioned in the article, if the Cardinals thought the quality of Peralta's play was the result of his PED use, they wouldn't have given him as much money as they did after he was busted, suspended, and presumably made more wary of continuing to take something.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, not as currently constituted. I'm assuming this is a prelude to more moves, and that by the end of the offseason the Yankees will look like a contending team. If the Yankees aren't planning to do more to supplement McCann, they might have been better off saving their money.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I forget whether I said Matt Martin would be in the dugout during games for Detroit--if I did, I was wrong. He'll be in uniform until game time, when he'll head upstairs to get a better perspective on defensive positioning.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I was curious about Kepler too, so I asked Jason about him on today's podcast. Scroll up in the comments for the link.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I asked Jason about this comparison on Effectively Wild today.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I wrote about why Darrell Evans and Reggie Smith were underrated in this article, if you're interested.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Updated the article to correct this.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Best TA title.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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I dabble, but Colin is an expert.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Definitely planning to do that whenever the debate deserves the spotlight.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks! I'll pass that on to the other authors.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't know if you're referring to what I wrote re: criticism getting out of hand, but I didn't say the outcome of the series would have been different with another manager. I said "No manager could have stopped the Red Sox assault." I also said that the story of the Cardinals' loss was that they didn't hit (which I'm not blaming on the manager), so I'm not suggesting that Matheny's moves were the only thing that mattered. And as for the quote from Will's article, he wasn't saying that managing the Cubs or Astros would have prepared Matheny for anything. He was saying that it's not as important for a rebuilding team to have a good tactical manager as it is for a current contender like St. Louis.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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He racked his brain for hours, but couldn't remember making any mistakes.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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(Actually, it looks like I picked the Tigers to win the World Series. So, technically, maybe I didn't pick the Nats to be best.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I could share it with most people who write about baseball, probably (or even follow it, for that matter). But that doesn't make me any less wrong.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There's a link to a video of that play in the last paragraph.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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We talked about both teams.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Oct 22, 2013 8:00 AM on The Young Scout
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed. (It was .296.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I mean, he says the opposite thing in the next sentence, so I don't see why you would think he's taking either stance. Ben can answer for himself if he sees this, but it didn't cross my mind that he might be endorsing either position. I think we're all more interested in the baseball than we are the narratives about the baseball.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You're missing the next sentence, I think. Ben is mocking the idea of ascribing morality to baseball teams.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben was being sarcastic, as the line immediately after that makes clear.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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We'll have previews for the rest of the NLCS games.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I clarified.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It was also a little harder to celebrate Griffey given the way he went out.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Daniel wrote about the Indians and Rangers in today's What You Need to Know.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Last winter it morphed into Rumor Roundup.

Sep 26, 2013 1:07 PM on Cleveland Socks
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Sep 25, 2013 10:10 AM on Cleveland Socks
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Clarified that section.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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They're very different--Max's is a complex mixed-level model that adjusts for count, pitch type, batter, umpire, and other factors. OZoneStrike/ZoneBall is basically counting, without any adjustments. I wrote about the correlation between the two here here, but Max's is the more advanced method.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Looking forward to talking to Aceathon every night

 
Ben Lindbergh
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And here's a link to the spreadsheet of career team records for active players.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't notice or mind that this happens, if it happens. I interrupt Sam sometimes, too.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think his peak was good enough, so I'd be more pro-Helton if he'd had one or two more productive post-peak seasons/if his back problems hadn't sapped him of his power. He hasn't had a .200 ISO or a .500 SLG since 2005.

 
Ben Lindbergh
(37618)
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Fixed.

Sep 13, 2013 12:38 PM on September 13, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Sep 12, 2013 7:46 AM on September 12, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, I didn't. I think that would be a fairly minor factor.

Sep 10, 2013 5:15 PM on Is Ubaldo Back?
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I agree that as long as he's throwing this hard, he'll have more success. I just don't have a lot of confidence that he'll be able to sustain whatever tenuous mechanical equilibrium is allowing him to do that.

Sep 10, 2013 12:49 PM on Is Ubaldo Back?
 
Ben Lindbergh
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He turns 30 in November. I'd probably take him over Zimmermann, but not the other two guys.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Sep 09, 2013 8:09 AM on A Weekend of Almosts
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Good catch.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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That'll teach you to read one of my articles

 
Ben Lindbergh
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He was a pleasure to talk to, for whatever that's worth.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Small sample size.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Kind of. But yeah, younger and also had more success in the majors before he went to Japan.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well now you have to say it in the Facebook group to complete the trifecta.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, you're right. Was underrating Mercer and thinking about Buck instead of Martin, since he was in the lineup I was looking at. Relative to the rest of the league, the Pirates are getting above-average offense at those positions. Make that no holes at all!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Glad to hear that everyone is so happy with the way MLU went this season. Thanks for reading. Zach will be bringing it back for AFL action.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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And you always wondered why you didn't make it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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For everyone asking about caddywhompus: that quote came from the same guy who gave me "David Robertson is the baseball equivalent of a sociopathic murderbot from the future" in this article from last year. So yeah, he's fun to talk to.

Aug 29, 2013 11:08 AM on August 29, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Aug 29, 2013 8:55 AM on August 29, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Aug 26, 2013 8:33 AM on Roy Halladay Returns
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Seriously.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Doubt it, but that would pretty much make my century.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There were some players who didn't fit into one of the boxes above, but weren't mainstream enough to get their own (looks like people who were classified as pinch hitters, mostly). Guess I could've added an "Other" row, but didn't think of it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Flied out to fairly deep right-center.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I want to go to there, too.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just to clarify, the numbers aren't really a ranking. The entries aren't in any particular order.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's not intended to be a comprehensive list of blown calls. There have been many more than 11 of those, so inevitably, lots of good ones were left out.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, we appreciate it. Glad you're enjoying the column.

Aug 22, 2013 6:30 AM on August 22, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Post in the Facebook group!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Hmm...try refreshing. It looks like the correct GIF to me.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Aug 20, 2013 7:55 AM on Xander Bogaerts
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Aug 19, 2013 7:16 AM on The C&D Boys
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, we brought that up on the podcast. Certainly seems like something that would happen.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Should be .362. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Neil DeMause mentioned a similar scenario to me this morning. If you're a manager, do you tell your baserunners to get up and run to third base after sliding into second, once the second baseman has thrown the ball to first? If a review reveals a neighborhood play, you could get an extra base out of it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Interesting, thanks. We touched on the degradation in the pitch within a match on a listener email episode, when someone asked us what baseball would be like if one team did all its batting before the other team came to the plate. But I wasn't aware that the conditions varied so widely from match to match.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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What varieties do cricket pitches come in?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Realistically, no, probably not, unless there's an easier way to do that than listening and typing. We aren't quite that mean to our interns.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You should still feel terrible about Trout

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, that was the worst of the three 20-game stretches, yeah--I could've isolated parts of that period to make it sound worse. But the point (I think) is that the .301/.330/.422 line came with a .407 BABIP and the kind of K:BB ratio that makes it essentially impossible to sustain a .300 average. So if he hadn't improved his approach, things could've gotten considerably uglier once luck went against him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There has to be more to life than that

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, Jon. I enjoy that too.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Matt Trueblood tracked it down: https://twitter.com/MattTrueblood/status/365164136755249153

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Correct.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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These first two comments confirm my belief that this podcast should be exclusively about cricket.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Aug 06, 2013 5:39 AM on Atlanta All Alone
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Inaccuracy corrected.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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He'll still be a setup guy, so he should. We'll have a TA for that trade up soon.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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British English has contributed some of my favorite podcast moments.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Might do another before that! Stay tuned.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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I've been told that Angel Hernandez is actually one of the best umpires, if not the best umpire, at calling balls and strikes according to the rulebook zone.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's official Pile on Yankees Right-Handed Batters Day at Baseball Prospectus!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just the portion they pay.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks! And why stop with the outfield? It's really an entire Team of Sunk Costs.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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I still think it's less likely than that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Will update if I can get some info from our prospect staff.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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In a way, but wealthier.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Pretty sure it happens to everyone.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I acknowledged in the article that PEDs have helped some players get better at baseball. It's just hard to say how much. You're saying that you can quantify how much testosterone helped you because you know when you took it and what strength and endurance gains you made while you were on it. I agree that if all steroid users in baseball felt like sharing that information with us, we could do a better job of quantifying how much they were helped. But for obvious reasons, they haven't volunteered to do that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Jul 22, 2013 9:06 AM on July 22, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Originally Saturday, but yes. Wanted to put it up before there was even less second half left.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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But Kemp hit a homer!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for subscribing! Glad to have you on board. Let me know if you have any questions.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I fixed it, but I think you're underestimating Herrera.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Correct. Fixed.

Jul 19, 2013 5:17 AM on July 19, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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We were the worst when we started. Thanks for sticking with us.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, fixed.

Jul 17, 2013 10:51 AM on Starting Pitchers
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Try the "Download Here" link. Seems like the right one to me.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Even more synergy!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ooh, Garmin one is good. Sandoval/Fielder were the first I thought of, but I resisted the temptation.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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But everyone else does.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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He's only making $5 million! And first base is stacked.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, he hasn't been around long enough to hold that distinction. I don't know off-hand who does, but Shin-Soo Choo (whom I almost wrote about), for instance, has never been an All-Star.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I probably would've written about Parra for this, but I just wrote a whole article abuot him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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To be clear, not all of these players are guys we think deserve to be All-Stars. They're just players we wanted to recognize for something they've done.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think I'll have an update on this on tomorrow's episode.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sam made me curious, so I looked up the pitcher vs. pitcher zone rate on 3-0. Even then, in the most gimme strike situation imaginable, pitchers hit the strike zone only 67.1 percent of the time. Pitchers, man. Can't throw strikes to save their lives!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I wasn't a big fan of the work done there.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I saw no. 13 in person! Fixed.

Jul 08, 2013 10:38 AM on Monday, July 8
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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To be clear, the Mitchell trade was pre-Sabean.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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I got to that in the penultimate paragraph, I think.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's fixed.

Jul 03, 2013 7:46 AM on Wednesday, July 3
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I hope PETA doesn't listen to the podcast.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That's interesting, thanks for the heads-up. Haven't listened yet, but I'm not sure it would be unusual for a player to get one pitch to hit per PA, or even to say that he gets one pitch to hit per PA--that's something you hear baseball broadcasters say all the time, after a guy misses or takes a hittable pitch. If you think about it, the average zone rate is just about 50 percent, and the average hitter sees about 3.8 pitches per plate appearance. So you figure that's a little under two pitches inside the strike zone per PA, and some of those pitches--while they might be called strikes if the batter took them--aren't really "pitches to hit." They're on the corner or at the knees, and the hitter can't drive them, so he lets them go or fouls them off. So when you figure that Cano gets fewer pitches inside the zone than the average batter, and sees fewer pitches per PA than the average batter, one "pitch to hit" per PA doesn't sound strange to me. This might be a good thing for me to poll some players about.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Jayson Nix and Ancient Ichiro have been hitting in front of Cano. Can't think of any problems there!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Jul 02, 2013 7:08 AM on Games of Monday, July 1
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Glad to hear it. Thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed, thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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See the comment directly above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Good point! In the sources you cited, though, there wasn't an instance of a manager stacking his lineup with lefties against Glavine, right? There were managers who left their regular lefties in, but none who inserted additional lefties into the lineup. Stottlemyre says that people had proposed the ida, but that "nobody does it."

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, Brady. That's nice of you to say.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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He didn't. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You're right! I had the right catcher, wrong pitch. The article is now updated with the correct GIF.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks. It's nice that he hasn't made it look silly yet, but there's still time.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Glad you enjoy it!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes--I updated the post. The table now contains UBB% and K%.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There's no way anyone else thought that, but yes, I feel a bit better.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks! I hope you're a popular person.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Plays for me in Chrome...Try refreshing?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I linked to that one above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That was me. Colin Wyers tells me it's somewhere around 103 games.

Jun 21, 2013 1:43 AM on Thursday, June 20
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed. I'll have to hand in my half-Canadian card.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Jun 20, 2013 9:29 AM on First Half Recap
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Switched to John Danks. Say what you will about Jordan--he works cheap.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, they could use one too.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, I mentioned that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There have been plenty of studies of umpire accuracy, but none that I know of specifically tailored toward framing.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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If one sentence is too long to read, I'm in the wrong line of work! Max's/Mike's previous research, and the independent verification of it that I've linked to in the past, makes me confident that the major league numbers are showing more signal than noise. As does the fact that teams have done similar research, and that catchers who rate well statistically tend to look like good receivers, and vice versa.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, Minor League Update and the Daily Roundup will be appearing in the article section of the site going forward. They're informative features, and we want to make sure they get the maximum exposure.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Career-low strikeout rate, yes. Thanks, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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This has been fixed.

Jun 12, 2013 1:16 PM on Mike Zunino
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Jun 11, 2013 8:55 AM on Gerrit Cole
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Same. Always struck me as far-fetched that Josh didn't know what it meant.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Listening to Ray Davies sing "Cricket" on repeat.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Now I'm stuck in a Wikipedia loop. Favorite part of Brian Close's Wikipedia page: "At just over six feet tall he was a noticeable presence on the field." Also, "As chairman of Yorkshire's cricket subcommittee he had many run-ins with the then Yorkshire captain, Geoffrey Boycott." Geoffrey Boycott! Cricket is the best.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Yahoo! Answers says yes.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Awesome. Won't pretend I understood every word, but I very much enjoyed the explanation.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for the extra info. This is my new favorite sports topic. Sam and I have serious cricket envy. Question: How is the proper positioning determined? I was wondering if it had to do with handedness, but the image you linked says all of those positions can be used to defend against, say, a right-handed batsman. So how do you decide between silly point and silly mid off, or short leg and silly mid on? Does it have to do with how hard the bowler, uh, bowls? Or batsman tendencies? Do cricket teams study spray charts? Seems like they'd be even more important with a circular field.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Impossible, unfortunately. Fixed.

Jun 06, 2013 12:36 PM on MLB Mock Draft
 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's there now.

Jun 06, 2013 10:37 AM on What to Watch For
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. Swisher is definitely better at baseball than Selig is at suits.

Jun 04, 2013 9:10 AM on Tuesday, June 4
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's possible, I guess. He seemed to have pretty good technique, though, so I don't know why that would desert him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I wrote about him in the Grantland piece, and published some excerpts from an interview with him on Unfiltered recently. He's been good in the past, and I think he was just outside the top 10 this week. I know he's had some passed balls lately, but maybe what you've seen of him hasn't been representative. I can take another look next week.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I mentioned that Colon-Gutierrez plate appearance in last week's "Longest PA" column. That's the longest one we have on record. (The pitch-by-pitch data we have goes back to 1988.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'll look this up (and also the 10-plus-pitch PA as a percentage of total PA) and report the results in next week's article.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I would guess that a checked swing at a cutter/slider is likely to be more pronounced, and a checked swing at a fastball is likely to be held up earlier.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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They work pretty cheap (I know from experience). It's sounds sort of silly to say, but sometimes the hardest thing can be finding places to put them. Baseball Ops offices aren't all that big.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Almost at the bottom: 27th out of 1111 (-4.5%). Maybe his DIY appeal approach backfires.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Presto.

May 30, 2013 11:16 AM on Michael Wacha
 
Ben Lindbergh
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New logo! Thanks to listener Justin Wieners. (@JustinWieners

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's in the works.

May 30, 2013 10:45 AM on Michael Wacha
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, I noticed the same thing. Definitely varies by catcher. Maybe some guys are more worried about developing a reputation as a strike stealer and paying a price for it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I mention to mention that! Added to the very end.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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My mistake. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I did indeed. Fixed, thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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No, just a mix-up. Text amended. Tommy Hunter is okay!

May 23, 2013 11:12 AM on Dodging Bullets
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I haven't, but I haven't really been on the lookout for it, either. Worth investigating.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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He was also widely considered a Quadruple-A player even less long ago. I'm not saying he can't continue to be productive, but his current league-leading stats are surprising.

May 22, 2013 8:14 PM on Better in Baltimore
 
Ben Lindbergh
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So much for that "before that All-Star break if his health improves" line, then.

May 22, 2013 3:58 PM on Better in Baltimore
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 22, 2013 2:03 PM on This Justin
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 22, 2013 10:40 AM on This Justin
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 21, 2013 10:24 AM on Sanabia's Spitball
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Also a percentage, yes.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Tried to talk to the Yankees' roving catching instructor, Julio Mosquera, for the Grantland story, but the Yankees' media relations people (who have been very helpful) weren't able to track him down for me in time. He's worked a lot with Cervelli and Romine. The Cashman question would be an interesting. I'll ask him if/when I get a chance.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I watched a bunch of ST:TNG this weekend and was thinking about how it's been longer since the episodes I was watching aired than it was between TOS and TNG. Scary.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Did talk to an umpire--excerpts from that interview coming on Unfiltered in the next day or two.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thank you. Welcome to BP!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm not sure what you mean?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sorry about that. I don't make those plots--they come from Brooks Baseball. I'll pass your request on to Dan Brooks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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The thing with PWARP and Moore is that the metric is looking strictly at his defense-independent performance, which isn't as impressive as his traditional stats. He's walked almost five batters per nine innings, and he has the lowest BABIP in the AL, which PWARP is attributing to his defense, not to him. His FIP is 4.50. Of course, certain guys are able to outperform their FIPs by inducing weak contact consistently, and those pitchers would be blind spots for PWARP. But prior to his 50 or so innings this season, we had no real indication that Moore was one of those them.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, glad you like it. I plan to do it every week.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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(That was supposed to be a response to piraino's second comment.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think both things are part of the story. We talked about it on the podcast, and Sam said the Yankees are 1/3 lucky individual player performance, 1/3 lucky team performance, and 1/3 simply a good team. (Those percentages were approximations, of course. The point was that there's a bit of all of that going on.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed the incorrect Zimmer birthdate.

May 16, 2013 7:13 AM on May 16, 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, definitely not over-aggression in this case.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 14, 2013 7:08 AM on Tuesday, May 14
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'll tell him our plan was a success.

May 13, 2013 5:26 PM on The Cubs Keep Rizzo
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Also fixed.

May 13, 2013 5:19 PM on The Cubs Keep Rizzo
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I would've taken him after Cahill, probably.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed, thanks. Don't worry about being that guy. I like fixing typos almost as much as I like not making them in the first place.

May 13, 2013 8:07 AM on The Cubs Keep Rizzo
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Didn't show up on the (somewhat arbitrary) list I generated because he made a relIef appearance this season.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't think so, or at least I haven't noticed him doing it regularly. Normally you want to minimize movement. I've seen him set up higher than normal for a high pitch, but the standing up looked to me like some sort of response to the baserunners.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Certain umps have smaller zones, of course, but I'm not sure whether certain umps are less susceptible to persuasion by certain catchers--haven't really seen anything on that subject. I would guess yes, but that the sample sizes might be too small to say anything conclusive.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think it's fair to conflate framing and defense, although maybe historically framing has tended to be overlooked relative to other aspects of catching. And you're right, Conger/Iannetta could be the new Mathis/Napoli.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not very much, I don't think. Maybe if Arencibia were still catching him. Knuckleballs are tough to frame. They're hard enough to catch, period. I'd like to see Molina catch a knuckleballer.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, I'm not sure that's not the case. On pitches inside the zone but within two inches of the zone edge, Jose Molina has the lowest rate of called balls (49/390, 12.56%), followed by Lucroy (50/396, 12.63%) and Yadier (75/572, 13.11%). The best catchers in the league in terms of the percentage of all in-zone pitches called strikes are Hank Conger, Lucroy, David Ross, Erik Kratz, Jose Molina, Evan Gattis, and Yadier Molina. (Thanks to Ryan Lind for those numbers.) So, for instance, Yadier Molina has 105 ZoneBalls on that leaderboard, which looks like a lot relative to everyone else on the list. But that would only by good for 19th place on a ZoneBalls leaderboard. And it's only that high because Yadier plays so much. He's caught all but nine of the Cardinals' innings, about 10 more than any other catcher, and way more than anyone else on the Ratio leaderboard. Let me know if that answers your question.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not the all-time ones yet, I don't think. I'm keeping an eye on it.

May 10, 2013 9:32 PM on The Sub-Replacements
 
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Ben Lindbergh
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You can find combined WARP by position here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/teams_by_positions_ytd.php

May 10, 2013 8:37 AM on The Sub-Replacements
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 08, 2013 11:36 AM on Rest-of-Season PECOTAs
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 08, 2013 2:41 AM on Games of Tuesday, May 7
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, fixed the GIF.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

May 06, 2013 5:14 PM on Games of May 2-May 5
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, thank you. fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That explains it! Thanks. Where there's a temporary vacancy in an outfield, there's a need for Casper Wells.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Definitely. It helps to be able to anticipate where the ball is going to be, so it's easier to frame pitches for guys with good command and pitchers whom catchers are very familiar with.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'd disagree with a good deal of that. The simple method I'm using for these weekly pieces doesn't adjust for umpire tendencies, but the more complex models developed by Mike Fast and Max Marchi, among others, account for that and other factors (pitch type, count, batter/pitcher, etc.). When you adjust for those things, the results actually aren't all that variable. Framing performance has a high correlation from year to year--it's a skill, not just noise. And I'm not sure how you reach the conclusion in your last sentence--receiving skills are widely considered an important part of a catcher's skill set. Lucroy doesn't have a great arm, but it's not awful. Even if it were, his ability to get extra strikes would more than make up for it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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See my comment above in response to tlpacker.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There isn't an easy way to separate it, no. But it definitely does affect the results. Catchers have told me that it's more difficult to frame pitches when they can't count on the pitcher hitting his target (which is pretty intuitive). Max Marchi has a method that controls for the pitcher, but it's very computationally intensive and can't be run as often as I would need it to be in order to use it for these articles. (Even he doesn't use it anymore, because he felt the extra processing time wasn't worth the benefit.) And even then, it wouldn't really correct for where the target was and how much a pitcher missed his spot by on a pitch-by-pitch basis. The only public work I know of on looking into how much missing the target impacts the probability of getting a strike on a borderline pitch was done by Max for the fourth PITCHf/x summit, when he was granted access to some of Sportvision's COMMANDf/x data (the tech that tracks the position of the catcher's glove). He looked at borderline pitches (which he defined as those with a 40-60% probability of being called a strike), and then he calculated the distance between the target and where the pitch ended up. The average distance from strikes was 0.85 feet, and the average distance for balls was 1.04 feet. So there is some trend toward pitches that hit the target being called strikes, but unfortunately, we don't have access to all of that data.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's harder than you think! And yes, I know the feeling.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That has certainly been known to happen.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't think it can explain the kind of discrepancies in starters result that you're talking about (that's probably partly a blip), but Laird has consistently rated as one of the worst pitch framers. So that's not a small sample/bad luck thing.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Good idea.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ice cream might be more difficult to arrange.

Apr 25, 2013 1:59 PM on Up, Up, Upton and Away
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, would be worth looking at. It's a little harder to look up, though, and you'd think that a service time trend would also show up in the breakdown by age.

Apr 25, 2013 12:38 PM on Pitcher BABIP and Age
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Request received. They'll be back next week.

Apr 25, 2013 12:22 PM on Up, Up, Upton and Away
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. I write about Jose Molina every week.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, I guess it could be something, but it doesn't seem to be a very clear trend. The average BABIP was .295 at age 20, .295 at ages 23 and 24, and .295 at age 27. And .293 at age 25, .293 at age 29, .293 at age 33, etc. From ages 20-29, it was .294, and from ages 30-39, it was .293. I doubt a difference of a point or two (if that difference is even real, given the likely survivor bias) is what Ryan meant when he said most young pitchers' BABIPs are "high."

Apr 25, 2013 7:44 AM on Pitcher BABIP and Age
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Russell Carleton just followed up on this discussion in an Unfiltered post here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Click the link in my comment above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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He's been pretty good. Not elite, but above average.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't know if Gardner has had the green light less often, but he told me when I talked to him this week that Cano hitting behind him is why he hasn't been going. See here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Going to guess that you're overstating my influence.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Also fixed.

Apr 15, 2013 11:41 AM on April 8-14
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Greinke has hit him three times in 31 career plate appearances. Obviously, that rate (one HBP every 10.3 PA) is a lot higher than Quentin's career rate (one HBP every 24.1 PA), but it's not the highest rate of any pitcher, nor the highest total. This isn't really a question the HBP rate alone can answer. Rightly or wrongly, Quentin feels that Greinke's HBPs were with intent, which would distinguish him from many of the other pitchers who've hit him, if true.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Apr 15, 2013 7:49 AM on April 8-14
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Apr 15, 2013 7:33 AM on Games of April 12-14
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, you can kind of tell--that's why I broke out the positive and negative WARP totals separately. Definitely a few more years, but probably not beyond 2004. That's the first year that the positive WARP total didn't beat out the 2013 team's projected overall total, so I think 2004 is the limit either way.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I like tilapia.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't think that was so much an example of good framing as it was a bad call. Also, I already wrote about it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not the kind of conversion I was thinking about, but yes, good point.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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If anyone did, it would've been Omar Epps.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You can mouse over the column headers for popup explanations of each stat (and links to longer explanations).

Apr 10, 2013 10:07 AM on Wednesday, April 10
 
Ben Lindbergh
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He certainly qualifies. We never include everyone who could theoretically be included, so it's not an attempt to be comprehensive.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sam brought an end to my cricket discussion as quickly as he brings an end to actual crickets. One thing I didn't mention is the advantage the team that bats first in cricket has: cricket, at least in some forms, takes so long that the field (pitch?) deteriorates as the game (match?) goes on. Evidently that makes it harder for the second team to score. Probably not a big factor in 27-out baseball.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Colin Wyers updated this entry today. It was outdated.

Apr 09, 2013 11:22 PM on Tuesday, April 9
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, it probably wasn't what you had in mind, but here's the farthest outside hit I could find (and access video for). The announcer said, "He hit that ball 70 feet from home plate." Almost!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Click the link in the "strike zone gets super-sized" sentence to read more about that. The zone gets much smaller on 0-2.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, in writing this, I was trying not to take that as a given. Take a look at the article I linked that the Mike Fast quote comes from.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Didn't check. I probably shouldn't mention Molina in every article.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'll take a look in a little while.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I wouldn't say it's necessarily costless--even if they do trade him away before he reaches free agency, they'll get less for him if he has less service time remaining, or have to do it a year sooner.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Okay, but Lohse pitched Friday, and went six innings. Why not make a move after that?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, you know, Santana rated as one of the worst framers last season. I was going to mention that, but his framing in those clips didn't seem so bad. Not Molina-esque, but not terrible. Maybe I'll ask him about it when he comes to New York next week.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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(Actually, he did. Fixed.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Max says it's on his to-do list now that he has expected strike probabilities calculated for past seasons.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm sure that question could be answered, but I'm not sure I know the answer offhand. I'll see if Max has looked into that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Changed to 3-for-4, but don't think he had a double.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I've been wanting to look into that. I asked Sportvision if they'd share some COMMANDf/x data on initial glove position with me so I could do a study, but no joy on that. Might try to do it via video, but it would take time. I can try to incorporate it into this series at some point.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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On that episode of Effectively Wild I linked to, I'm pretty sure Sam and I talked about how much we would miss framing now if it went away. What would we write about?!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It actually has shown up in some studies of Catcher ERA, notably by Craig Wright and Sean Smith. See what Mike Fast wrote in "Removing the Mask" about Smith's article in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2011, "Do Catchers Have an ERA?" Wish I could link to Smith's article, but it's not online. His conclusion is that Keith's original study probably had some limitations in terms of the sample size and statistics considered that obscured the significance of the relationship.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's a new feature, so you weren't missing it before. Glad you're enjoying it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Many more Fridays ahead!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Chris Stewart, maybe not coincidentally: very good framer.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Updated, also with a quote by Cahill.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You're right, I think--I was paying more attention to the height and the Gameday classification than the velo. I'll update the post. That would make it the third-lowest changeup hit for a home run in the PITCHf/x era.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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According to PITCHf/x, it was this, which was about an inch higher: http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12437805&c_id=mlb. Pennington's listed height is six inches shorter than Holliday's, so it doesn't look quite as extreme.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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What information do you need?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, that is what I meant, thanks. Fixed.

Apr 02, 2013 10:03 AM on Elvis In the Club
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Details are still being worked out. Haven't seen any reported.

Apr 02, 2013 7:46 AM on Elvis In the Club
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Apr 02, 2013 4:58 AM on Elvis In the Club
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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I mentioned "the extra revenue that a star and fan favorite like Verlander contributes away from the field," and linked to something about marquee value in the last paragraph. I agree that that's an important factor.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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All or mostly after.

Mar 31, 2013 4:51 PM on Staff Picks for 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, last week.

Mar 31, 2013 11:28 AM on Staff Picks for 2013
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Changed the Indians' top 101 count from two to three and replaced Ramirez with Wolters.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Also fixed.

Mar 30, 2013 2:15 AM on Against the Grain
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Oh, I doubt he's going to set an IBB record (unless you mean a personal record). Barry Bonds' 120 in 2004 seems pretty unassailable.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Leyland said "physically," though, so I don't think this is the typical "closers have to have a short memory" thing.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm skeptical about the idea that someone would be better against better pitchers than worse pitchers over the long run, but it's possible to check. As a shortcut, I looked at Uggla's career splits at Baseball-Reference vs. "Power" and "Finesse" guys--as you might imagine, the "Power" guys tend to be better pitchers. ("Power" pitchers allowed a .682 OPS vs. major-league batters last season; "Finesse" pitchers allowed a .760 OPS.) Uggla has a career .808 OPS against "Power" pitchers and .836 OPS against "Finesse" pitchers.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Mar 29, 2013 5:59 PM on Against the Grain
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Might be seeing him there when Brian McCann gets back!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Uploaded a new version with less prominent crickets and more prominent Parks. Let me know if that's any easier for you to hear. Sounds considerably better to me.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Don't worry! If you're right about Leyland, he'll never see your insult.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Will be done today.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Attempting to do some post-processing to amplify the Parks portions. Will re-post and leave a comment if I succeed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Players mentioned in the "Prospects To See There" sections aren't necessarily starting the season at the "Must-See Affiliate." They're just players who might appear there at at some point in 2013. Added a note to that effect at the top of the page.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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The free weekend promotion runs from Friday through Monday. And yes, it's not just articles. PFM will be free for non-subscribers, too.

Mar 28, 2013 8:46 PM on Free Days
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, it's possible.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It was the 31st pick, but good point. Added a note.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Placido Polanco hitting cleanup is strange and unusual, and I'm interested in strange and unusual occurrences. I wanted to see exactly how strange and unusual it would be. I don't think my pointing out that Polanco would be a pretty terrible cleanup hitter will demoralize anyone on the Marlins. The team isn't making even a token effort to compete, which seems much more demoralizing than anything I could say about the situation.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It is publicly available, via the fine folks at Retrosheet. Easily computed--well, no, not by me, which is why I was lucky to have Andrew to help me out. But it doesn't take too long if you have some SQL skills. I have subpar SQL skills.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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All the batting order stuff from The Book that I cited is the result of pretty rigorous studies, so I don't think it was an assumption on the authors' part.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, planning to, with the help of Harry Pavlidis. Aiming for next Monday, so we can include all preseason data.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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TBA.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Daniel Rathman deserves more credit for MLU editing than I do.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Whom are you suggesting is jealous?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, full framing ratings for 2012 haven't been published. Max is in the process of refining and re-running his framing ratings for all years covered by PITCHf/x, so hopefully he'll have something to share soon.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Leverage Index, as Colin Wyers put it to me recently, "has an end-of-game proximity bias." See the article by him I linked in a comment above.

Mar 24, 2013 3:46 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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There's evidence that pro pitchers who throw harder have a higher risk of elbow injury, but the fastball vs. cutter comparison is probably pretty tenuous (and purely speculative!)

Mar 22, 2013 2:22 PM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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WPA is definitely a better way to go if you want to give Rivera the full leverage bonus. I didn't want to go that way.

Mar 22, 2013 2:20 PM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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It definitely doesn't work out to be the same for all relievers. So yes, WARP is saying that it's meaningless in the context of evaluating player value.

Mar 22, 2013 1:34 PM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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You're right, he was slightly more effective on a rate basis in '63, but he pitched about 25 more innings in '64, which made that season more valuable (at least according to our stats).

Mar 22, 2013 12:47 PM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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We use different replacement levels for starters and relievers, but not different replacement levels based on relief role.

Mar 22, 2013 11:47 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't think WARP is saying leverage averages out (it doesn't--you can check that in our Bullpen (Mis)management Tool). It's just saying that it has no bearing on player value.

Mar 22, 2013 11:21 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The nice thing about putting Rivera in, as opposed to Sutter, is that it doesn't open the door for anyone else. No other reliever could convincingly claim that because Rivera is in, he deserves to be too.

Mar 22, 2013 11:16 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I just have a very hard time coming to terms with the idea of double-counting Rivera's innings like that.

Mar 22, 2013 9:51 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Should it? I'm not sure. If you go by FanGraphs WAR, the difference is almost 30 wins. Rivera has pitched 1219.7 regular-season innings; Pettitte has pitched 3130.7. That's an enormous difference. Pettitte has pitched over 2 1/2 Mariano Rivera careers! Shouldn't that matter more than the fact that Rivera's innings mostly came toward the end of the game?

Mar 22, 2013 9:40 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Mar 22, 2013 8:48 AM on Dearth of Infield Depth
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Right. We've chosen not to make leverage an input in WARP for those and other reasons. Here's something Colin wrote on the subject.

Mar 22, 2013 8:38 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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PWARP is largely based on FRA.

Mar 22, 2013 8:27 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The words "discovered his cutter" in the article link to a story about how Rivera has failed to pass on his cutter to anyone else. His kind of control can't be taught, and evidently his kind of cutter can't either.

Mar 22, 2013 7:36 AM on Ranking Rivera
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The odds have been updated as of this morning.

Mar 22, 2013 7:06 AM on
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Knew I could count on you.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Probably not as a daily feature, but Corey will weigh in from time to time on important injuries, as he did a couple times last month.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think Zach was referring to Franklin's skills, not his small-sample spring stats.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed, thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Jason has a lot on his plate and hasn't been able to stick to the daily schedule in the last couple weeks. We do want to keep the MLU running daily (or as close to it as possible--Kevin didn't do it daily), so Zach will be pitching in to try to make that happen.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Mar 17, 2013 11:46 AM on New Arms of the World
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Okay, look for something at the end of spring training.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You want a list of velocity changes between late last season and this spring? I'll see what we can do.e

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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No, but it's been suggested that the clubhouse might lack some cohesiveness because it's had a lot of turnover.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, you're right. Though it would certainly be in the best interests of all of them.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'd think PITCHf/x-based reports/performance reviews would be provided by the league, so an umpire wouldn't have to go digging around a database for the info to help him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. I wrote about that a bit in the article I linked to in the first paragraph above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That's definitely not what I was laying down.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Agreed, Alan. I'm sure SABR was doing its best to deal with constraints on the schedule, but it would've been nice to be able to see everything, even if it meant running a few things a little later in the day.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I linked to Russell Carleton's BP piece about the Dodgers and chemistry. Pitcher clusters, not pitch clusters--Vince was presenting about a "big data" approach to coming up with comparable pitchers based on a bunch of characteristics (velo, whiff rate, release point, etc.).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Especially since your BP pitcher probably can't throw it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Matt Eddy's article about Graham's presentation also mentioned Brayan Pena, Coco Crisp, and Ian Desmond as guys who made contact all over the zone. Unfortunately, I missed that presentation--I was at Alan Nathan's, which took place in another room at the same time.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Rob Neyer grilled the player development guys about their nutrition plans. They all said their teams have put much more emphasis on proper nutrition in the minors in recent seasons, though they were a little light on specifics.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I wasn't distracted by winning awards.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. It lasted for five games.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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We can do that, and have done that (see this article by Colin Wyers, for instance). It makes sense. The potential problem with doing that is that you run the risk of confusing people who expect to see one number, and it's also sort of a pain from a display standpoint.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't know, but I'd assume so.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Different, yes. Unrelated, I'm not sure. The part about the potential impact on the payroll was pure speculation.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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They do use video to time and assess the accuracy of throws.

Mar 11, 2013 1:26 PM on Arm Strength
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Added.

Mar 11, 2013 1:06 PM on Part Two: 51-100
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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You'll get to hear it tomorrow, too.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I had the same thought.

Mar 07, 2013 10:10 AM on The All-Rookie Roster
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ruf's player card projection is based on his depth chart-projected playing time, which is mostly in left field. I asked our stats team to re-run his projection as a first baseman (same with Olt at third and Profar at short). You have to hit a lot to be a valuable first baseman.

Mar 07, 2013 10:10 AM on The All-Rookie Roster
 
Ben Lindbergh
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It does. d'Arnaud was right there with Zunino.

Mar 07, 2013 5:38 AM on The All-Rookie Roster
 
Ben Lindbergh
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That's sort of how I imagine it working for a real team, too. It's not just that a player like that can help you fill a hole in season, it's also that he allows you to be more flexible in putting your team together. With someone like Zobrist on the roster, a GM doesn't have to be locked into a need to acquire a second baseman, a right fielder, or a shortstop. He can wait and acquire whichever one comes cheapest or makes the most sense. More options, better leverage.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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You are not. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Russell looked at teams, too, comparing pre-season projections to actual records.

Feb 28, 2013 3:47 PM on Can't Buy Me Chemistry?
 
Ben Lindbergh
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What I don't understand is why anyone assumes that someone on an elevator wants to hear about the Giants.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I mentioned it in the podcast episode I linked to in the Correia section. I wasn't a fan, but I didn't dislike it as much as the moves I went with.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I spaced on switching the total salary to annual salary--that's fixed now. The total commitment is still tied with Villanueva's for the largest on the list, though, and I can't for the life of me figure out why someone would want to give Correia a guaranteed second year. That makes it worse than the annual salary alone would indicate.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It does for me. The Orioles stood pat, the Rays worked the market. I see a contrast in the way they approached their offseasons, especially given that the Orioles likely headed into the winter as the greater risk for regression. Anyway, I think it's a minor, mostly semantic point. The entry was more about the Orioles not doing much than what the other teams in the division did.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think it's fair to say that the Rays were aggressive in strengthening their franchise and their long-term outlook. It might not show up much in 2013, in the sense that they might have won as many or more games with Shields as without him, but they put themselves in a better position to remain competitive in the future.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't think Adam was necessarily claiming that the Rays improved the team for 2013. I'll give the Rays "aggressive," but I can understand if you disagree.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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*Roberto

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Trading your best pitcher and highest-paid player for one of the top prospects in baseball fits my definition of aggressive. And yeah, Escobar, plus Kelly Johnson, Loney, and Robert Hernandez. And they re-signed Scott, Farnsworth, and Peralta. And signed Longoria to a six-year extension.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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What Adam wrote makes sense to me. You left out "shored up," which Adam included in addition to "spend big" and "aggressively work the market." The Rays were pretty aggressive in working the market, and the other teams spent money, even if it didn't make them much better. They were all pretty active in comparison to Baltimore.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, it was just sort of a bonus guy.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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The playing time projection above is from our depth charts, which are entered manually by Jason Martinez (with input from the rest of the staff).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Added a link at the top to this Unfiltered post, which breaks down the Top 101 by position, organization, and age.

Feb 26, 2013 10:05 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I sort of tried to look into this last season. The results were inconclusive.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Didn't see any, but didn't look at everything.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Nailed it!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed. No secret message intended, unless I'm not in on the joke.

Feb 25, 2013 4:57 AM on Top 101 Prospects
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Would you pay $1.99 per game? If so, you can download 154 games (and counting) here. Larry Granillo has written about a couple of the downloadable games, here and here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Remember it well. I was actually on vacation in San Diego, watching the Padres play at Qualcomm, and I saw (on the scoreboard, I guess) that Mussina was pitching a no-hitter/perfect game. Got back to my hotel in time just to see the end. So disappointed. Mussina's sour responses to silly sideline reporter-type questions were one of my favorite things about him. He wasn't very willing to play along. Sometimes he'd just stare.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Top 101 will be up on Monday, with a Jason chat to accompany it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Updated with some research by Harry Pavlidis on groundball rate and "hard stuff."

 
Ben Lindbergh
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If you're trying to assess league strength, it makes more sense to look at interleague records than World Series results, no? And those still suggest that the AL is stronger.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, while I was certainly interested in portraying PECOTA in a positive light, I wouldn't want to defend it blindly. When I was asked about Hanley, I mentioned that the projection might be overoptimistic because the system doesn't really know about his injury history and the possibility that he's not the same guy physically. I had prepared to say something similar about Lincecum's velocity loss, if asked about his projection. For Harper, I went with Colin's explanation.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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So isn't that an indictment of any pundits who saw too much significance in those spring training stats? I don't really remember if spring training was the main source of inspiration for the Raburn breakout brigade--there were other reasons to be optimistic about him--but any optimism that was based on a spring hot streak probably was unfounded.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Correct. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Dave, the convention at most other sites seems to be the way we have it set now, so if we changed the link-opening behavior, we'd probably have just as many requests to change it back. Ideally, we'd allow BP users to change how they want links to behave in their account settings. We'll look into doing that, but I can't promise anything soon.

Feb 19, 2013 2:06 PM on Tuesday, February 19
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I know. Sorry for being a buzzkill.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's possible, but as I mentioned, we don't know how many of those 14 questions add any value. They're fun, but some of them would have to be studied before we could conclude that they'd improve the predictions. And some of them are subjective, so they'd be tough for PECOTA to ask.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, didn't mention Bauer because the Bauer trade cost Cleveland Choo. I figure the odds are against that being an upgrade in 2012 alone.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=WAS

Feb 17, 2013 8:31 PM on October 14-20
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for pointing this out, we'll take a look.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I hear this a lot, and it would be true if set-up men were used much more flexibly than closers. In other words, if teams used their closers to start the ninth with three-run leads, but their set-up men whenever they were most needed to put out fires before the ninth, then the set-up man might be the potentially more valuable pitchers. I'm not convinced that this is the way most bullpens work, though--in a lot of cases, I think set-up men are used a lot like closers, but in earlier innings. They're just the seventh- or eighth-inning guys, instead of the ninth-inning guys. If you look at a list of relievers sorted by the highest average leverage when entering games, it's mostly closers.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Removed reference to Petco.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You make some good points, Fred. I'd point out that while making contact certainly isn't Johnson's strong suit, he's struck out less often than Francisco despite facing same-handed pitchers much more often. Francisco has had the platoon advantage in 83% of his career plate appearances, compared to 73% for Johnson, but he's still struck out in over 31% of them. Not that big a sample size, but it doesn't bode particularly well for how he'd do in an expanded role. I'm honestly not sure how predictive K rate in the Dominican Winter League would be. For what it's worth, PECOTA predicts a 24.4% K rate for Johnson (in 427 PA) and a 27.3% rate for Francisco (in 461 PA).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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PECOTA uses the birthdates and seasonal ages listed in our database. Tejada's birth year in our system is the correct one, 1974, which would make his age-23 season his rookie year. So, in PECOTA's eyes, Tejada was as old as he actually was, not as old as he might have been claiming to be at the time.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, wasn't really considering the Phillies and Padres playoff contenders for the purposes of this piece. They have a non-zero chance to make the playoffs, of course, but you have to set the cutoff somewhere.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I saw that. I get the feeling that Hanigan's rep has caught up to his value to some extent, but I think there was some truth to the statement at one time.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Should be very regularly. The depth charts have already been updated for Bourn.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I mentioned that in my section.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Seemed to me that there were quite a few non-traditional stats (and non-traditional non-stats) cited in this case. I think a team would have to tread very carefully when raising concerns about a player's personality, given that the player is often right there in the room. Telling a panel of arbitrators that a player deserves less money because he's difficult to deal with could very well make matters worse.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I added a note about this to the article. I enjoy the Visual Depth Charts.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ah, Excel Viewer has more limited options and might not allow you to do that. You could download OpenOffice as an alternative to Excel, or paste the PECOTAs into a Google doc.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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There should be a "Sort & Filter" button if you're using Excel (or something similar depending on what version of the program you have). Select a column and click that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I've seen what can happen when you comment before coffee. ;) Happy first PECOTA Day. You can manipulate the spreadsheet any way you like. There aren't separate tabs for teams, but you can sort the "Team" column alphabetically to get guys in order. You can also filter that column (in my version of Excel, Data-->Filter) to make players from only certain teams appear.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Doug will be back to discuss the Diamondbacks on March 6th, assuming the team preview schedule is still on track. Mark your calendars.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I propose a follow-up article: "What it Means to Have the Worst Farm System in Baseball."

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Did you just say "Delmon Young without the defense"? ;) Owings does have some power. He's definitely been Delmon-esque in certain respects, but it's hard to say how much of that is a product of putting pitching before his bat.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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WHIP was mentioned in the Hammel case, and my mom emailed me to ask what it was.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Isn't that basically what a blooper is?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That seems more plausible, if not this season then next. Tough to compare potential based on any statistics, though: Loewen had only two big-league plate appearances during his pitching days, and he never hit in the minors before making his major-league debut.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Oh. I know they've had Kevin Goldstein on in the past.

Feb 07, 2013 7:40 AM on BP on TV
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think we're mentioned often enough on CHC that viewers would know what we are. At the very least, they'd know us from Jay Jaffe's magnificent mustache, which has been a guest before.

Feb 07, 2013 7:34 AM on BP on TV
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The story about his signing on the Nationals' website describes him as a "former right-handed pitcher" who's "now a first baseman." I don't know if there are any plans for him to pitch. Even if he's healthy enough to do so, it would be very hard for him to develop as a hitter if he's still being called upon to pitch.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Evidently I'm just all over the baserunning beat.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I did that, I think. Switched the filename to the new episode.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Nope, still doing Scherzer. We picked 10 of the most interesting cases to do regardless of whether the real-life cases were settled (too much research required to switch on short notice, among other reasons). Headley had already settled by the time the first case appeared.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I won't settle for a blog. I told Mike I'd read a book about it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, when I published this post, the filename was still pointing to 132. I changed it to 133 shortly after that, so it's fine here, but evidently iTunes hasn't adjusted yet. I hope it will at some point today. Thanks for pointing it out.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Feb 04, 2013 10:04 PM on Clemens' 20 K's
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, on the whole the projections are very close to the observed stats. See Rob's response to a similar question the last time I used retro projections in an article (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=19425#131549). Same goes for TAv. Didn't look for brothers who were in the same organization but never played together.

Feb 01, 2013 10:50 AM on If I Had My Brothers
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, fixed. Mixed up my pitcher's parks ending in -co where the fences are being moved in.

Jan 29, 2013 9:29 AM on All the Young Moves
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Hoot, Will Carroll named the Verducci Effect, and also presented research similar to Verducci's. Colin Wyers retired Nate Silver's "Secret Sauce". So yes, of course we're open to revisiting and even contradicting work previously published at BP if additional investigation and evidence reveals that that's warranted.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Everyone, we've bumped up the projected release of PECOTA by two weeks. Instead of setting February 25th as the deadline and aiming for earlier, we're setting February 11th as the latest possible date at which the weighted-means spreadsheet will be published. So the PECOTAs will be available on roughly the same date at which we released them in 2011 and 2012, if not earlier.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I miss Edwar Ramirez. He was fun.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Also didn't really exist until 1947: Cleveland's Chief Wahoo. And this Chief Wahoo didn't exist AFTER 1947: http://www.authentichistory.com/diversity/native/is3-buffoon/Big_Chief_Wahoo_Strips.html.

Jan 27, 2013 7:38 AM on Why Wahoo's Gotta Go
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Check the article linked from "shouldn't be particularly proud of."

Jan 26, 2013 8:51 AM on Why Wahoo's Gotta Go
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Those arguments were mentioned by Paul Lukas in the piece I linked to in the last line of the post. I thought he countered them fairly convincingly.

Jan 25, 2013 10:10 AM on Why Wahoo's Gotta Go
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Good observation. I meant to make a note of that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121214&content_id=40650956&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Might have to veto Chris Sale GIFs on the grounds that this is a family-friendly website.

Jan 18, 2013 11:15 AM on Then and Now: Giology
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not collapsible, but the slowness right now might have more to do with some server issues we're experiencing than the GIFs.

Jan 18, 2013 10:02 AM on Then and Now: Giology
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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I almost picked Gardner.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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OPS+ doesn't weight OBP and SLG any differently than OPS, so if you want to use one number, TAv gives a more accurate picture of a player's productivity. We don't have anything against triple-slash stats, though. We cite them in BP articles all the time (in fact, this article cited both triple-slash lines and TAv). When we write for other audiences, we either use simpler stats or explain what TAv is every time, but BP readers tend to know what we're talking about(and if they don't, there's a mouseover tooltip on "TAv" and an autolink to the glossary entry). Personally, there are plenty of times when I'd prefer to see TAv instead of triple-slash stats. If I want to know what kind of hitter (as opposed to just how good a hitter) someone is, then triple-slash stats might give me more to go on. But if I want to know how productive someone was, I'll take the TAv. Otherwise, I'd basically be trying to translate the triple-slash stats into a single number in my mind, factoring in the relative value of OBP and slugging plus park factors, and I'd probably do a worse job of that than TAv does.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just added a note at the end about a piece I came across after publishing that has a few somewhat noncommittal quotes on the subject from Terry Ryan.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm sure it's a mix of both.

Jan 12, 2013 8:23 AM on Bargain Bin Free Agents
 
Ben Lindbergh
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The only solution to this problem is to start Power Pop Prospectus.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Oh man I would be really happy if you stayed for the subtle Star Wars humor.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's not impossible that he could sustain his 2012 performance, but isn't the likeliest scenario that he'll regress toward his mean in his age-33 season, even if he's fluctuated some from season to season historically?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Glad you like it. Thanks for listening.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for the thoughtful comment. And welcome to BP!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That one was from before the trade. Wasn't easy to find one for the Royals. Rays one mentions Davis after the trade, though.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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By the time I got that far down the list of teams, the exhaustion factor kicked in. Once I found a suitably silly one, I stopped.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Joke!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I don't think losing a pick is a dealbreaker--we've seen Hamilton, Upton, Swisher, etc. sign--but it is a consideration, and probably a factor in Bourn still being unsigned. The lack of openings for center fielders and the concern about how he'll age might be bigger factors, though.

Dec 31, 2012 1:11 PM on Bourn to Be ... What?
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, maybe: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/teams-could-seek-loopholes-for-compensation-free-agents.html

Dec 28, 2012 1:36 PM on Bourn to Be ... What?
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Good quote. Guessing Sam will also be unmoved.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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My favorite line too.

Dec 28, 2012 6:44 AM on How to Pitch
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I was referring to his problems with runners on base, but I probably should've clarified that.

Dec 27, 2012 9:21 PM on Leery of Liriano
 
Ben Lindbergh
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They do in the aggregate: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12853.

Dec 26, 2012 9:09 AM on Leery of Liriano
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, fellas.

Dec 21, 2012 7:14 PM on The Mike Minor Mystery
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed thrown/throne.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not exactly "easily," but yes, that's a question PITCHf/x could help us answer.

Dec 21, 2012 11:31 AM on The Mike Minor Mystery
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sorry about that. We'll work it out.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Wasn't on your end. I think the Honda Fit must have interfered with Sam's signal strength.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Dec 20, 2012 4:05 AM on Thursday, December 20
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just updated. Thanks for the reminder.

Dec 19, 2012 10:51 PM on Relief Roundup
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4464

 
Ben Lindbergh
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The lists line up now.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I believe the open/closed status of the roof is at the home team's discretion, at least during the regular season and if the decision is made before first pitch. The Jays couldn't, for instance, keep opening and closing the roof during the game depending on who's hitting. But as far as I know, they could keep it closed for a Dickey start on a day with perfect weather if they wanted to. Of course, there are other considerations besides how the environmental conditions would affect Dickey (the quality of the fan experience, for instance). It'll be interesting to see whether any gamesmanship goes on, though I doubt it would be worth it without hard evidence that it would have a significant effect.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, I think so. Fixed.

Dec 14, 2012 3:12 PM on 11 Potential Trades
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I don't know. The other advanced fielding systems out there rate him pretty poorly for those years, too. I wasn't watching him regularly at the time, so I don't have an opinion on whether FRAA is being too hard on him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks for the heads-up, it should be working now.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Bad fielder, bad baserunner (career-wise, roughly 50 runs below average or worse in both departments), and peaked pretty late offensively.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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His highest rating by BA was 25th, before the 2004 season.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Except that he has seemed to do a heck of a job of drafting young and assembling a strong farm system. Maybe he somehow has the ability to tell which minor leaguers will be good major leaguers, but not which major leaguers already are good major leaguers? It sounds sort of far-fetched when you put it that way.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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In their careers? That's not something I checked. Only looked at what happened early on.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Man, Rosenthal is such a slacker.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I had a lot of articles in mind. Here are a few: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-bright-side-of-losing-santana/ http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-08.pdf (The Victor Wang article) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4291 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15306 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17276 Etc.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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It's done!

 
Ben Lindbergh
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High.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Right you are. We'll get that addressed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Was finally able to upload a complete recording of the press conference. Link at the bottom of the post.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Dave, I don't think the way out is that easy. A player with five years of service time can't be sent to the minors without his consent, and I'm guessing A-Rod wouldn't relish a few seasons in Scranton.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You are considerably more optimistic than I.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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And here I was thinking it was that one time you got to be on Effectively Wild.

Nov 30, 2012 1:59 PM on On the Other Hand
 
Ben Lindbergh
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No, not the full list, sorry.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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What's that? Sorry, I was distracted by Jordan's "put BP authors on Adderall" suggestion.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Madson section should be showing up now.

Nov 28, 2012 7:26 AM on Adequate Scott!
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not only do I know about the plight of Iowan MLB.tv users, I regularly remind staff Iowan Colin Wyers about it. I can be cruel.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks. Every now and then we like to alienate our listeners.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Actually, the Upton trade rumors started well before Kendrick's comments. But the comments probably gave the rumors a little more life.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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The most surprising part of this post for me was that there is baseball footage on YouTube.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not the bat flip. The bat flip is beautiful.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I understand the expectation. We certainly didn't come to any agreement not to talk about it today, but other than rehashing the results, I'm at a loss for what else there is to say. We've written and talked a bunch about it, and people on both sides of the debate have been going back and forth for weeks with little apparent progress toward consensus. At some point, I feel like you just have to accept that the BBWAA awards aren't going to look like the Internet Baseball Awards and move on. No reason to let the dissenting view dominate the discourse indefinitely.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm not sure what more we have to say--we ran a few articles and podcast episodes about the Trout vs. Cabrera debate at the end of the season, and little has changed since then. The voting went pretty much as expected.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Which further fueled my well-documented irrational affection for Bruney.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Saw that, interesting. Of course, turning balls into strikes probably makes for more entertaining GIFs. Speaking of which, I'm thinking about doing a "Molina frames of the week" feature next season.

Nov 15, 2012 1:00 AM on The 50-Run Receiver
 
Ben Lindbergh
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That was on there! Give Sam some credit.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I did, briefly, because I confuse them myself: "The last two refer to call-ups: 'Recalled' is used with players who are already on the 40-man roster, while 'Selected' is used with players who aren’t."

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, that pitch probably would've been nowhere near this list if I'd been able to sort by strike probability.

Nov 14, 2012 6:52 AM on The 50-Run Receiver
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I blame Sam for saying he'd have a higher ERA than Henderson Alvarez.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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He won in 1999.

Nov 13, 2012 4:36 PM on November 5-11
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, he has a couple research pieces planned. He's had some time conflicts come up, so he'll be contributing on an irregular schedule.

Nov 13, 2012 8:10 AM on The 50-Run Receiver
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Probably not, for reasons I can't really get into, but if you ask him about a specific catcher, he may be able to answer.

Nov 13, 2012 7:25 AM on The 50-Run Receiver
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I did. Nate said he supported Obama in the FAQ at his site (before he moved to the Times), so he was pretty open about it. That was sometimes cited as "evidence" that his model was biased.

Nov 10, 2012 8:55 AM on Fresh Blood
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think his detractors very often cited his political leanings as evidence that he had an agenda.

Nov 10, 2012 1:18 AM on Fresh Blood
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Dan Fox mentioned this as a possible partial explanation in the 2007 article I linked.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I assumed that was what he meant, in light of the link.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, that could be playing a part.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It was semantic sleight of hand on my part. You were right to point it out.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I said more than 20! Mostly so I could make my stat more interesting, but still. I felt better about my arbitrary cutoff because Berry added a couple more steals in the postseason.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Typo fixed.

Nov 08, 2012 8:25 AM on 13 Offseason Needs
 
Ben Lindbergh
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More is on the way.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just when you need Carlos Lee, he's nowhere to be found.

Nov 07, 2012 8:16 AM on 13 Offseason Needs
 
Ben Lindbergh
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We'll be running some pieces soon that I think will give you a much better feel for the approaches of our new prospect writers. Stay tuned for the first next week.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes, I agree, and I thought about including him. I like Baker.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Just added the section featuring Scott Rolen, which I'd intended to include yesterday. Somehow slipped my mind, which was clearly already addled before I started this story.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks. I was saying that they'd get in on his 10th ballot, though, not his 10th year after retirement. You have to be retired for five years before your first ballot.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, glad you enjoyed it. And no, he won't have to wait.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I thought the same thing. In the first draft I described the newspaper as some sort of animated smart paper that was basically just stories with GIFs, and then also considered having him hold an iPad 20 or something instead, but I decided it would be distracting to spend too much time talking about the state of newspaper and non-newspaper technology in 2031. So: newspaper.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. Our bad. Stay tuned for an exciting errors and omissions segment in episode 73.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think that might be true of the Yankees' first two ALCS games. I thought their approach improved in the last two, for all the good it did them.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sam and I just talked about that on the podcast that's about to be up. Could be a concern, sure, assuming he's more likely to lose the pinpoint command than he is to regain velocity.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I can sort of see it--I can sort of see a lot of contracts when they end after one year--but I think it would be a stretch to project LaRoche as any better than a league-average first baseman at age 33, and I don't think a league-average first baseman is worth that kind of cash.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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What, and leave all those intangibles on the bench?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'd like to think that Geovany Soto has a bounceback walk year in him, but I can certainly see the case for bringing Napoli back on those terms.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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We almost always have at least one free article per day (anything without a Premium icon), and everything in our archives over a year old is free, so there should be plenty to whet their appetites. We appreciate it when readers help us spread the word.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Age-wise, at least.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed. Good catch. Ortiz ranked 25th.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It was the second-lowest average in an ALCS, after the 1969 Twins (.155).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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We'll never know, and it's probably more fun this way.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, that league-minimum year is why I didn't rank him.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Bobby Bonilla's contract is the best.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Refreshing or letting the page load should do the trick if they don't start immediately (which they should with most good connections).

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Should've said relievers, of course. Also fixed.

Oct 17, 2012 11:38 AM on Joe Girardi Has Faith
 
Ben Lindbergh
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In most browsers, the Escape key stops them.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed.

Oct 17, 2012 11:15 AM on Joe Girardi Has Faith
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I updated the post to incorporate this comment and some additional statements Leyland made before Game Three.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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In his press conference after Game Two, a reporter noted that this seemed to be a "dramatic turn" in Girardi's beliefs about instant replay. He responded that he "liked it before." But yes, this was definitely the most vocal he's been about it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It made me think of Mitch Hedberg's joke about Bigfoot.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Not at all, actually. PECOTA thinks the Yankees' odds would be exactly the same with Nunez in Game Two as they would be with Nix. You're right, though--Nix gets this game.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Geez. That's what comes from not sleeping for most of this series. Thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. From the pre-game presser transcript: Q. Sticking with the lineup, Eric Chávez playing today, your lineup hasn't had great success against González in the starts this season. Chávez is one of those guys, 3‑for‑6 with a home run. Did that have to a lot to go into putting Chávez in the lineup? JOE GIRARDI: Yeah, I watched Chávie's at‑bats. I watched it two starts. Chávie also lined out for one of his outs, too, and I thought his at‑bats were really good. So that had something to do with it, sure. And the prescient one: Q. How important is it knowing that you have that bullet for late in the game knowing how clutch he's been this season? JOE GIRARDI: He's been a really big pinch‑hitter for us, and I like having that. That's not the reason I didn't start him. It's just I looked at Chávie‑‑ and Raul's at‑bats were pretty good off this guy, too, but Chávie's at‑bats were really good, so I decided to go that way, but it's nice to have that.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I mentioned it before the bullet points. Didn't have too much more to say about it, but I agree that it wasn't a good route.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Would be nice not to have to think of any more sounds.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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No. Hard to say what the effect of that would be.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I couldn't have done it without A-Rod.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I was referring to Jones.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Added a link to Not Jim above.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Correct. Fixed. (Although I'd rather have a five-inning, one-run outing than a six-inning, three-run outing, "quality" or not.)

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, Cecilia. Should be a fun series.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Edited to remove Omar Quintanilla and add Joe Saunders after the Orioles announced their official roster.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Added a note to that effect.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Likewise.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Probably not the Hit List parts, which wouldn't work in spring training, but maybe Matt can do recaps.

Oct 05, 2012 1:29 AM on Thursday, October 4
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Ben Lindbergh
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Hatred of the Tigers is passed down from one staff member to the next in a sacred anti-Tiger ceremony, but you'll never get any of us to divulge the details.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Fixed the TKs and Reynolds errors.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Can't think of a suitable Sloan lyric to describe laughing loudly at a UZR joke.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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And the votes rotate within BBWAA chapters, so the more members there are in your chapter, the less often you get a vote. Don't know about Jay, but I'm not voting on anything this year, which means I'm free to make my meaningless picks here.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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"My commute is too damn short."--Effectively Wild listeners

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Sloan is the best. And I mean that much less hyperbolically than I usually do when I say something's the best.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yes. Added a note to that effect.

Oct 03, 2012 4:15 AM on Wednesday, October 3
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Who could flame a comment that reasonable?

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Changed "never" to "rarely." I'm surprised a plan wasn't drawn up shortly before or after that close call.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That is close! Thanks.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I swear I was already listening to Twice Removed when I came across this comment, and I'm about two weeks away from hearing the whole thing live. Please leave a relevant Sloan lyric in a comment at the end of every future article published at BP. Thank you.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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The problem with balks (and ejections, if we have that data) is that the umpire reports are set up to consider what happens when an umpire is behind home plate. Balks and ejections can be called by another umpire, so I assume that would take some extra programming work. Not necessarily impossible, just noting that it would be a bit more complicated than simply adding a field.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, that was what Katy seemed to speculate. But then you'd have one team sitting and watching for a while the other four teams fight among themselves. As she said, that might be interpreted as unfair.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Believe me, I have. In fact, my first question to Katy concerned what would happen if every team went 81-81.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Peter, try letting the page load for a while or refreshing. Looks okay on my end, but sometimes GIFs can be a bit finicky.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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That will be happening. You might see something on HS hitters on the site as soon as this week.

Oct 02, 2012 6:35 AM on Rays/Twins
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Interesting, thanks. This is the only reference to that I can find online: "Before the first pitch, Manuel started his exit interviews. He was accompanied by his boss, Ruben Amaro Jr." Maybe Luhnow would have conducted the interviews with his manager too, if his manager weren't still the Nationals' third-base coach.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, it's not so much that I wanted to protect their identities--when you write for a large audience, you pretty much give up your right to privacy as a professional. It's more that I wanted the focus to be on the phenomenon itself rather than saying "So-and-so is stupid." I figured people would come up with ways to find out if they really wanted to know. And you did! So that worked out well.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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I think we'll say something about that tonight.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Here's a link to the Sean Forman Baseball-Reference post I mentioned. He points to a pair of examples.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Update: Lincecum allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings on Sunday. Four strikeouts, two walks, three homers. He also confirmed that he will be a part of the playoff rotation.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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You disagree?

Sep 29, 2012 8:30 AM on Mourning Manny Acta
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Agreed. Torre's Yankees/non-Yankees split wasn't quite as dramatic: .605 in 12 years with the Yankees (12 playoff appearances, two pennants, four World Series), .484 in 18 years (a few of them partial) with other teams (three playoff appearances, no pennants, no World Series).

Sep 28, 2012 5:46 PM on Mourning Manny Acta
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Could be, though if that's the case, you have to wonder how the Indians failed to pick up on that before they hired him.

Sep 28, 2012 12:41 PM on Mourning Manny Acta
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Well, maybe Acta going from Washington to Cleveland was like Stengel going from the Dodgers to the Bees/Braves. In which case his next stop should be the one where he wins seven World Series.

Sep 28, 2012 10:58 AM on Mourning Manny Acta
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I'm not a believer that either Pythagorean under- or overperformance reveals much of anything about a manager.

Sep 28, 2012 10:55 AM on Mourning Manny Acta
 
Ben Lindbergh
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I see what you mean, but I don't know--I'd like to think that the only reason the Indians would need to fire him would be because of some failing on his part. Otherwise, you're just talking about change for the sake of change, right? That's sort of what Bill Veeck warned about in the quote I included in the "On Decision-Making" section here. I I don't know that "Well, we're not winning with Manager X" is a good reason to fire Manager X unless you think you're not winning because of Manager X.

Sep 28, 2012 9:29 AM on Mourning Manny Acta
 
Ben Lindbergh
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Right you are. And he's probably pleased about that now. Fixed.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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They weren't referenced because they weren't really relevant here--they're not in contention like the top three teams, and they haven't had as extreme a season for injuries as the Red Sox. Corey Dawkins will be doing a more in-depth wrap-up of team-by-team injuries after the season, but the Blue Jays rate ninth with 4.6 WARP lost.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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It's definitely misleading as the sole indicator of how healthy a team was. For that purpose, I think WARP lost or days/games missed work better.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Yeah, I didn't mean to suggest that the AL East standings would definitely look different. As I wrote, "The WARP lost totals above don’t account for how a team filled its holes, only that it had them." You're absolutely right that you have to look at who replaced the injured players and how they did. And even then, it's impossible to say what would have happened in the alternate-history version of the season: maybe the teams involved would have made some other roster moves or acquisitions if their situations had been different. Basically, I just wanted to talk a bit about the importance of injuries, the benefits of figuring out how to avoid them, and the idea that they theoretically could (and at times have) helped determine which teams make the playoffs.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Thanks, that's interesting. If you still have the list somewhere, I'd be interested in seeing it.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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If history is any indication, we'll be talking about the Padres very soon.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Raw OPS isn't all that matters--when Howard surpassed the stats you quoted in the same park, he rated as a below-average first baseman. And I don't think it's likely that Ruf will continue to improve beyond the age at which players typically stop improving. Anyway, I don't have much more to add here. I haven't seen Ruf play any more than you have, and I don't have any special insight into his future. I'm just choosing to believe the scouts who say he's not a prospect, and I don't think the stats provide a compelling reason to believe they're wrong. The only possible proof is how he plays, and that's something we'll have to wait to see. If he gets an extended look somewhere, I'll be surprised if he outhits Bryan LaHair. And if he never gets an extended look somewhere, that'll be telling, too.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Oddly, Sam picked that sound, and he's the podcast host with an actual crying baby at home. He must have had crying babies on the brain.

 
Ben Lindbergh
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Also, I'm guessing Mother Theresa wouldn't have fared too well when it came to the first clause. By the way, to answer your question about whether the character clause also applies to Hall of Fame voting: it does, or at least it's supposed to: "5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player