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Colin is this feeding into the Playoff odds through expected wins column yet? And why not release, like you have before, versions of the playoff odds that variously weight the in season performance. Right now they seem way too heavily influenced by preseason expectations.
Don't do it mets, don't call up harvey. please. For the love of god. This season is not worth it.
Will a non pecota version of this come out this season?
PECOTA loves danny murphy. weird
I know david wright is still being drafted fairly highly, but i think in general people are a lot more down on him than is prudent. Yes he has lot a ton, and yes betran and reyes have left the lineup. But with the fences coming in, people ahve also forgotten that the mets were an above average run scoring team last year, 6th in the nl and tops in their division. Yes, they've got some defensive butchers out there, and their pitching is terrible, but the loss of beltran and reyes will be made up for by a real first basemen and potentially a full season of wright.
Anyway I was suprised to you put him top tier, but totally agree with it.
Re: Howard, I know timetables are very uncertain, but whats a realistic time from, running and turning extensively to being able to run after getting a hit in a game? that was basically the next step right? could it be faster than 4 weeks from that point?
So when was this change implemented and why haven't all the updated dates for nl pitchers changed?
Wait, are the DC's for the NL pitchers accurate now?
How does the wild card not come from this division this year?
Last year it was definitely a fluke, and the brewers, diamondbacks and cardinals are probably going to be worse teams this year.
This year really any of the non mets teams could take the wc. Honestly I was suprised that Pecota likes the nats to be as close the phillies as they do. 6 wins? That's a little bit of luck and bryce harper being worth more than 0 vorp.
I agree its dumb to bring him up, but they are legitimate contenders. I don't see how people are hotter on johnson, hanram and reyes for continued health and bounce backs then werth zimmerman and strasburg. Yes overall that marlins bunch is more talented, but the rest of the nats rotation is just a far sight better.
Wow, that pitching staff better be stellar, because the offense is projected (quite reasonably) to post the lowest OPS in the division.
I do! they're going to trade him for prospects if he pans out!
plus, 36 million is that big of a risk.
I have no idea about cespedes, but, certainly seems like a decent move.
you can look at the individual team DC's for now, but they look like they're a bit of a mess. Or is the plan going forward to list by batting order spot? That would not be useful.
They do seem to be roughly adjusted for reasonable expectations about injuries, so it seems like they are somewhat current, and they match the numbers from the pecota spreadsheet.
But isn't the spreadsheet not supposed to be playing time adjusted?
Uh oh. The article also notes that it was time warner and other sny partners that ponied up for almost half the shares. If the mets end up like the knicks, owned by a cable company, I wouldn't be too hopeful.
As long as we come out of the death spiral with no more stupid contracts and a few good draft picks(and the sale of the team includes the TV channel, I see that becoming a huge sticking point) eventually the mets will get back on their feet.
Financially the franchise never got going in citi field, but there is no doubt they can afford more salary than the phillies down the road.
Though to be fair, the verducci effect is probably fake. I mean, what is the reasonable difference between 25 and 35 extra innings (Kershaw vs. price)? Thresholding is lies.
Wait now, your control group isn't a control group! I know you tried to be really careful in constructing it but the story isn't done yet.
Pitchers who hadn't gotten that innings bump may be different than those that do. For one big aspect, they may be more injury prone and less durable!
To actually study this, you'd need to randomly choose players to give extra innings too as the progress. Of course, that really can't happen gonna happen.
I think the big take away from the verducci effect (or the verducci effect is a myth reports) is, don't count on reliable performance from youngin's. They on average get worse.
Also, were you weighting the era's, fips, k's and bb's for ip?
Kevin, anything to be said about young players like trout with game changing abilities working in a system with a likely inner circle guy like Pujols in the bigs? Are Pujols' approach and mental skills (the most transferable things) something you think he can give to trout? Didn't work for colby rasmus but still.
Great Column! One of the most fun pieces i've ever read here.
Can we re run one of those old "how much extra money does Boras get his clients" stories or maybe put in the new data.
Also, who exactly is he poopooing for "turning their back on the closer"? There are by my count only 18 relievers, not even "closers" who fit his 60/85 criteria for last year. Even his client k-rod didn't make the cut. What a silly man. I guess he's going after the red sox specifically. I'm not a fan, but I really hope they win this year just to validate the concept that you shouldn't have 3 dh's and spend more than 20 million on relief pitchers.
Actually i'd almost give a little bit of leeway to someone who was publicly decrying steroids while still using them.
The system was pretty stupid, and while its not the moral high ground to use them or lie about it, its definitely the moral high ground to publicly advocate for reform.
Still, thats a hypothetical person.
Great article. Too bad intelligent and classy people don't seem to like to run for office.
Wow. That is a bleak outlook.
This team has spent over a billion dollars on payroll in the last ten years and usually made money.
would be a shame to see the nats risk their bright cheap young future by giving a big overpay to another boras client this year.
Prince could help them, but they really should not pay the man too much.
agreed. after the mets themselves of course.
Completely agreed. Even without looking too much at either teams specific needs the "wow its been so awful to watch this guy, maybe if he leaves he can get it together" factor is about equal with both that its very much worth the effort.
Too bad big papi came back, because John Lackey could use the same treatment and I bet Jason Bay would love to go back to boston. Not that they really need outfielders.
I mean pence has to know both of his arb years left if things go fine will be worth between 25-28 million, cause he's going to win this hearing.
Pence won't get extended. Amaro wants to avoid the luxury tax and that few extra million in aav that pence would need definitely sends them close to their. No way he takes less than 25 for 2 years and if you're going to buy out free agent years, he's probably going to ask for 14-15 aav.
From a fantasy perspective, what kind of impact does the howard rehad have on his power? When they say he's doing weight bearing, I assume he's fully active above the waist. Below the waist whats going on? 3-4 months without being able to do strenous lifting on one or both sides has to affect a guy like howard going forward right?
This is true in a certain sense. What if you redid this using the Nate silver "best player" methodology, with weights on the adjacent 3-4 seasons?
age? or prospect years?
also is fmart off this list because of being waived or would he not have cracked it any way?
Kevin, do you think it makes any sense to bring up mejia as a bullpen arm this year if he can possibly be stretched back out to a starter?
The mets aren't winning next year and with cash issues, why not continue to hope you can have a controlled starter in 2014?
I have to say; not knowing where the bats are going to come from is fine by me; those are way easier to find on the market than pitchers. If 1 of the four top guys hits his potential and one or two of them become at least average innings eaters by 2014, you'd have to hope this team has a shot.
Here's to tanking through another year for more draft picks and selling the team. No way we have a shot to compete with the top three in the nl east this year.
If Reyes isn't completely hamstrung, but the Marlins stink in a few years(which they will) it still won't be a problem to find some trade suitors. Even a 3 or 4 win jose is worth the risk over those last 2-3 years, especially if they can catch him on a year playing well down the stretch heading into the playoffs.
Basically Loria is a fraud, who has no clue how to build a team and is trying to half ass his way into putting a decent team in the next ball park. I guess they can't be faulted for trading for failing the pujols bidding when it was reported they had the high bid, but they're not ready to win, and they're decisions are only justified in a win now context. Why screw over your top position player and overpay a closer for an 70 win team with no farm system
Given that they can't be justified, the only explanation is trying to jump start interest in the team. It won't work, but I think its the only explanation of what they think they're doing.
Teams who make the playoffs after being terrible don't do it in tough divisions without careful planning and tons of luck. Even if johnson and hanram return to form, this team is not going to compete with washington atlanta or philly (two of whom should be even better next year).
Vis-a-vis reyes moving from mets to marlins; Take a look at their actual runs scored. Its not just a margin, its a large gap. The mets were a better offense last year. Hanram has no more reason to improve this year than wright does. The big difference in 2012 is that one team is losing reyes and .5 beltran and other team is getting reyes. For reyes' fantasy value, consider that citi definitely improved his triples and his home ops was 100 points higher. Triples don't count in most formats, but rbis and runs do. Still, if he can be healthy he is the best short stop in fantasy, and if you don't keep him you're going to end up with crap.
Jay, what do you, as the creator of Jaws say about the impact of active sure fire (well, from a statistical vantage) HOFers on the current candidates legitimacy. Larkin for instance would suffer if arod were included in your totals. Its one thing to not want to remove people; but when someone isn't in, how can you not compare them to contemporaries.
I think he means five straight playoff appearances
I just don't see why you don't trade trumbo now. His bat may never be worth as much and you can get some decent infield pieces for him.
yeah because there is a club world championship, and the euro league team doesn't always win.
If there was a club world championship for baseball there is just no chance the mlb club doesn't win nearly every time.
This chart is pretty darn useful. I think the halos's are pretty happy with anything rivaling 35+warp from pujols at 5-6 million a warp. 7/10 of these guys beat that level. The floor for this deal is pretty high, and so is the upside
Consider these three things 1.) exponential value per dollars routinely given. Note that the marlins outbid by 30 million, and the yankees red sox phillies mets and dodgers would have done the same if they didn't have extenuating circumstances. 2.) Milestone and star power value 3.) the opportunity to take the mantle of interest from the dodgers given their ownership woes.
only a 30% chance he underperforms 35 warp and at least a 30% chance he crushes 60+ warp? What a deal, what a steal.
Also; the point of this is that these guys won't be around in 3 years, cause they ain't guaranteed. Few position players that are as good potential tradebait or address as serious a fan annoying feature cost as little for as little time.
No matter the recent financial success of the phil's lets talk about a team with 100 million wrapped up in 2013 for lee, howard, paplebon halladay and utley.
Lee and halladay will be 35 and 36, Utley 34(with knees!) and howard 33. And papelbon.
Given 50 million to spend on the entire rest of their roster, with arb for almost everyone relevant and walk years for hamels and victorino, how does this move make any damn sense for their future? Considering that they might offer a stupid amount of money to cuddyer or rollins still.
If this team heads south and can't continue rasiing ticket prices and selling out, they could end up in serious trouble.
Is it true that Howard's treatment for Bursitis could have predisposed his tendon rupture?
The mets offense= better than phillies right now. The pitching is terrible. The mets won't win unless david wright is what he is capable of being, but they shouldn't add any more bats unless they get their cash resolved and can sign fielder. which they should.
In terms of Captain kirk's long term progress, if beltran gets traded, would it hurt him to end up in the bigs for the season and get maybe 50% playing time.
This might require a better forum than the comments, but what scenario leads to Chapman getting turned into a starter and what would the procedure be on that? Is it similar to the Mejia story, where he gets sent back to triple a to stretch out?
well, i suppose that makes sense, but can we really untangle any purely muscular "weakness" from "flu like symptoms". Unless you really know something else was wrong, its not ludicrous to believe the virus has been causing him problems for up to a week and then finally took over cause he was pushing. I guess a big question is how quicly can we expect someone who looks like they lost 20 pounds to come back.
so the flu rules out both of the above mentioned scenarios?
Why aren't they using this opportunity with k-rod to try and use him in every 7th and 8th in innning high leverage situation.
also, at the same time his upside is like, top 3 leaguewide. only miggy is in his range.
His comps seem to suggest way more than 21 dingers.
There is a HUUGE discrepancy between the weighted mean projections and whats listed on the depth chart. What gives?
are you dropping the davenport translations?
ike davis for a sophmore slump?
I have a hard time seeing how a guy whose basically just average has a sophmore slump. his first year wasn't slumpable. if he really slides off that, the mets have other replacement options, like carlos beltran.
I see. team totals don't get updated when individual lines do.
this can't be right. utley loses over 200 ab's and barely loses a tick of value? And the team run totals don't miss a beat(i think)?
I agree. Mark Prior isn't on this list, and It seems like a pretty good bet that weiters will best his total production by the time he's done. He still could hit over 120 home runs in his career. That wouldn't be too shabby.
How's this trend holding up? Have September bumps gotten bigger or smaller? What about the effects of macro economic shocks?
Long story short is: MLB shouldn't become the NBA, its not nearly flashy enough to get people interested in a regular season if it doesn't count.
The giants pitching staff will be better than the phils this year-bold prediction, but they were better last year, and even with the new players the phils won't catch up.
The phillies replace moyer and kendrick and blanton with lee and oswalt innings; the giants replace wellamyer and zito with bumgarner. But don't forget that the phils bullpen is getting worse and that brian wilson is probably still better than brad lidge.
Apparently, pecota disagrees, but I think Cain Sanchez and Bumgarner have more upside and youth on their side. Let's be honest, this is a scary good rotation, and yet their nl pennant foes are getting all the attention.
You don't leave 100 million on the table. He won't sign for less than 200 million, even if it was for super short years.
hopefully in triple a, learning how to pitch three times as much every season.
Last year they hit better against lefty pitching. One exception Werth.
Still, his contribution was more than platoon. Losing him; not expecting a return to form for rollins or ibanez; expecting a serious return for the .300 hitting chooch; all means that utley and howard really have to be healthy and hammer it. They're both over 30.
No doubt about it, the phillies are a pitching led team this year. Still, I think they'll manage.
These warp scores are unweighted for playing time I take it?
Santana, 76innings 5.8 warp?
The expected difference between him and braun in warp is as big as the one between braun and j.d. drew.
My goodness, thats quite the gap between pujols and the rest of the hitters. Maybe he should offer the rest of them lessons.
I almost worry that in fact Isiah becoming a 3b coach is now destiny.
You make a good outline of the situation, but I think you have to look at the clubs offseason. They(we?) didn't spend a dime. Now, their may not have been worthy deals per se, but we also weren't selling. If this is a rebuilding year or not, a lot of the direction depends on the production of beltran bey and reyes, both in the possibility of making a run and trading for value.
Still, despite being faced with a situation where there wasn't enough available pitching to guarantee a contender the inaction has to be in part affected by this confusion. The wilpons must have known about this. The only other explanation of the saving is that we're doing a weird rebuild, or are holding out on picking up big contracts until next years 1b free for all is done. Assuming no madoff issues, the mets, who will be shedding plenty of payroll, would probably be the best candidates to sign pujols. Ike davis be damned. funny that 300 million seems to be one the figures discussed, cause thats about what its going to take to sign him. And he's worth every damn penny. Here's hoping the wilpons find a way to make it happen.
typo: you say in the last paragraph that it will be tough for a 90 win braves to make the playoffs in 2010.
also are you my high school english teacher or a baseball writer? hahaha.
I mean, unfortunately discussing health outcomes without a model as good as will carrol's at hand is difficult.
its only a subjective assessment w.r.t. lincecum. He is the freak. Other causes for concern exist, but weighing them in what is clearly an outlier body type is hard.
halladay lee and oswalt are old and have been worked hard. See kevin goldsteins assessment of why lee having any health issues could be disastrous for his new found level of finesse.
Halladay, who has been quite durable may have tweaked his groin in that last game of the nlcs. He certainly altered his mechanics. Obviously he has plenty of time to recover from that, but 270 innings can take their toll, even when you're as efficient as halladay is.
okay so last years count (for the pitchers, not the working staffs) was 25, sf to 30 r2c2, but i mark the top 3 in sf less likely to get injured or regress, and bumgarner gets a whole year to play. Siera did the giants were much luckier than the phils, so i could be crazy.
you have to admit its a fun bet.
wait, you switched from talking about the 2012 budget to the 2011 budget.
the question still remains, how much will the phils actually spend. they've got 103% capacity at the stadium and no plans for their own network, and they've made the playoffs 3 years straight. According to cots they're looking at around 165-170 million in payroll this year, a bump up of 20 from last. And while they're going to shed some payroll probably, what their ultimate target is unclear. Next year includes 115 million, before picking up oswalt or paying hamels. Those would add 25-30 million, and bring you back to 140 million. Lose blanton and you're back to 130, but you still need a short stop, outfielder, ryan madson, and you've got a decision on lidge. So either this team is heading permanently to the 150 million dollar level of payroll, or things are verry tight in 2012.
I think my gut says that at some point they're going to be cutting salary in a much more aggressive way. That means that hamels, oswalt, rollins, might not return.
Hey, why not include what the snlvar for those "4th years". the braves teams make repeat performances, but despite having a great year it seems that the 99 version lost 17 snlvar in the prior period. is that because 98 was 17 worse than 95, or where their personnel changes.
Also, fangraphs also took their wayback machine to three years prior period. There are good and fair reasons for that, but lee and halladay (to a lesser extent) also lose a good clip off their performance in 2007.
Ultimately they've got to play the games. I would bet good money(especially given odds) that the giants or red sox has a higher 1-5 snlvar than the phillies in 2011. on 2012-2013, that becomes even stronger.
I still don't understand how both berkman and oswalt left with no serious impact on this situation.
So, the fact that cliff lee might have left 50 million dollars on the table, and 2-3 years, well, i think that changes this analysis a little bit. Why did roy oswalt, halladay and lee get gift wrapped to the phillies? Is it because cliff lee likes hunting, and couldn't do that in new york? I better see cliff lee playing deer hunter at the dave and busters. isn't the union supposed to get mad at you when you take 50 million dollar pay cuts?
-a very disgruntled mets fan who hopes that a squadron of 32 year old pitchers is about as bad as it would otherwise sound. (oh god, they have 4 pitcher from the top ten in siera. Matt Swartz its like you invented that damn stat to taunt us!)
plus youk would only be downgrade vs. beltre for one of the last 4 seasons. beltre would be for sure too expensive.
This is really cool, suprsing how more reproducible the pitchers results were. It'd be cool to compare mvps scores under nate silver's old "best player in baseball" metric and compare that to who nate's system would have picked.
Where can i find the details on the new morp system that you're using Matt? Is it still the same one listed in the glossary?
Actually at 2.6 warp this year howard is already probably not living up to his 20 mil average salary. And he's 31 today. Happy birthday ryan!
Do the phils really have the financial wherewithal to keep spending? they've got 146 million on the books for next year already, and will probably take that close to 150 picking up new pitchers and settling arb cases. They never spent more than 100 before 2009. I know the playoffs help and that they're selling out, but they don't have their own network and didn't make the ws this year.
Re: Kershaw vs. Lincecum.
Siera has Lincecum doing better this year by a good clip(3.16 to 3.47) And that doesn't include timmy seemingly getting over whatever hangups he had in august. Include the chance that tim has more proven reliability and may really truly be a physiological freak, i gotta go strongly with lincecum for the next few years.
though i will add one problem is that sandoval's motivation to stop eating and fix his sophmore slump has gone down, and linecum could enter a prop 19 depression.
Sabean is a mystery. On one hand, he now has two stupid contracts weighing this team down, neither of whom did a lick in the post series. On the other, assuming sandoval bounces back even partially he has 6 count um six super cheap youngersters under control for quite some time. Matt cain just turned 26, but lincecum, sanchez posey bumgarner and pandoval are easily the best young core of any team in mlb. Right? Even tampa doesn't come close i don't think. There are pieces of their offense that can be fairly cheaply improved, at which point they can become scary good.
Most of these moves should be done no matter what, but with both beltran and santana serious red's health wise, its quiet possible that winning now is a little out of reach. Which is why even with other signings, pagan is going to get more serious time, and one of those rookies might be integrated in a bench role. Same goes for pitching. Really, with santana as is, and both pelf and dickey serious coin tosses, we need to add almost 3 serviceable pitching pieces, and certainly at least two. Given that lee is going to be far too expensive(he's about to get at least 100 million, everyone is saying so and the bidders are there. Buttt, thats a terrible contract for a 32 year old with about 3 good years under his belt), its kind of unlikely that they'll be able to fully reach that goal.
Probably best to not over commit, and hold on for 2012, when beltran, ollie and frankie are off the books and you can sign reyes/maybe beltran back to a realistic contract, and pick up one of those first basemen (fielder, gonzo or pujols) all of whom will be worth every penny, and give the mets enough bat to overcome their pitching.
yeah and also, are these projections made from updated pecota runs for the season? Isn't our new improved pecota supposed to be fast enough to get that, or is that still coming down the road?
I don't know about saving oswatlt till the 9th being a bad move. Yes you might rather have him there as opposed to say, durbins performance. But you'd probably certainly like to avoid putting him out there if you can. He is after all going to pitch a possible game six, is pretty old and is signed for another year or so with the phils.
Great analysis christina, but I have to say, I've never really known the losing squad's fans to find a series "classic". 2004 ALCS? 2006 NLCS?
and apologies if setting up the system to include injury information like i proposed is just ludicrously hard. you guys do great work.
I take you're going to employ a dummy variable with information about specific injuries and apply them to projection totals. That seems like a great approach, but would it be conceivable to not just capture injury as a dummy with a constant but rather integrate the injury data into all player data and let injury comparables play out on an individual basis? I don't know if what you're doing so cloesly resembles ols, but if you are including a dummy variable for injuries, one problem is that the effect of the injuries on past players that is captured in the dummmy is already (but in a hidden way unless you're marking it) included in the data. That is, guys like jose reyes who are super speedy have comps that had hammy issues that affected their performance. The system knows that they declined. It doesn't know why, but this info is already a factor in projecting jose reyes. It always was a factor, and the system is already capable of noticing his reduced playing time which looks a lot like old comparables. But if you gave it the full set of data on injuries, it would be able to (if there was enough data) make inferences about how different sized and skilled players were responding to their different injuries. Even your non significant information about walk rates should get included under that scheme, and it won't introduce bias.
Actually, the thing about walk rates has another good example. Lets say you decided to include that dif-in-dif estimate as a dummy on recovering wrist injuries. Like you said, there was a change coming out of their injury that seems borderline significant. However, there are probably also relationships between their pre injury walk rates and their injured year. Using a single dummy won't necessarily capture all that. What could be most interesting would be if the system began to detect changes that suggested impending injury.
Anyway, this seems really cool. Can't wait to see the data.
Poor Matt Wieters. He will never live amongst the gods.
Yeah, just demographically there were 140 million americans in 1940. There are now ~310. Plus there is overseas recruiting. Albert Pujols of course is a pretty good example of this.
Is he really 30? Its clearly not important for his past achievements, which are worthy of any sort of praise. But there do remain two issues: Where will he end up in the top (small number) players of all time? And how much money should he be offered.
The whole age speculation is of course a little unfair. But he's got the opportunity and his performance would be slightly more comprehend able if he was actually 33-34ish? Maybe not. I don't mean to sound like a birther.
I guess the US government did grant him citizenship and accepted whatever sort of high level documentation he offered at that point. So maybe its b.s.
You really think that Rivera didn't pay off for the yankees? I mean it seemed crazy at the time aside from, being good to your veterans, but he's racked up 9 7 and 5 warp in the last three years.
Not really relevant for the jeter case, but pretty astonishing. His performance in the playoffs last year was also incredible(this is as a real yankees hater).
I think from brand management issue the yankees have to completely open up the checkbook for jeter, but try and keep the years limited. He's going to walk away with 100 million dollars.
great read, though its too bad that newly confirmed timelines for polanco and utley really changes the marginal effect on the race. We're now talking about two months for utley. And in a phenomenon that matt swartz might validate, all those missing base appearances from utley ahead of howard lead to less shifts and less production from the big guy. Thank god, for a mets fan, they won't consider moving up brown and benching raul.
That being said, after the last three years, to me the phillies will be the favorites to win the division till sometime in late november, all rational evidence aside.
WRT Murphy, its not like with carter matthews jr cora and cattalano carrying the met's primary pinch hitting bats getting murphy back for hitting only is such a terrible thing. He's a high contact guy too, so thats nice.
Good to see the Howard hater in chief chime in against the new philly phriendly voices at bp.
Fun fact: R. Amaro in an interview yesterday called Jimmy Rollins "Maybe the best shortstop in NL, arguably one of the best shortstops in baseball".
Something tells me their "inside knowledge" isn't all its cracked up to be.
yeah if you're dominating the pitching that hard you're better off trying to swing aggressively.
I do have one question, Does your morp model make the phillies pay for say, not offering howard arbitration rather than picking up his old 2011 option (if i remember how the contract went)? Or say rollins' for that matter.
Also, I wasn't trying to dispute that there are reasons for howard hitting better with runners on, but that just contributes to the context dependency of his value, and one that might change if utley, rollins and co aren't as good as they have been in the last 3 years(they very well might not be).
PECOTA says no.
Okay Matt, nice try. Really. Maybe with super high inflation things work out just fine. Maybe he can hit lefties, maybe the fact that he has like +200 OPS with runners on and way more such opportunities than comparable hitters will not change when utley and jrol slow down, maybe other hitters wouldn't get boosted nearly as much by hitting in citizens bank (i know, he hits just as many homers on the road).
For those who are interested Baseball Prospectus' proprietary projection system has this to say about Howard-2012-16
Maybe if it reweighed him at 235 it'd see that beautiful man coming out?
I don't need to multiply those numbers by your dollar figures. Let's put it this way, he's going to make almost as much as Joe mauer got for similar years in a similarly timed deal. Yes he's less injured than joe mauer, but Mauer is a better baseball player, lets not mince words.
The Twins got a discount for their risk taking. You can't argue that the phils did. No way another team would have given him this deal, and that is the definition of consumer deficit.
Coach Larry? If he manages the injuries of others the way he does his own, you're going to have a lot to write about in the next few decades.
Pecota's weighted mean isn't terribly concerned for papi, but there is over a 50% chance that he's worth less than 2 warp, and has under 20 vorp. As for now, he's matching that pathway better. That's a not what the sox need.
I see them trading for gonzo.
Not fully clear that this is the case yet, but you have to give yourself props for your THR comment on Werth being in a contract year and trying to push through. You have to imagine that though he might be best off absolutely eliminating the chance of exacerbating injury into something serious that would prevent him from playing out the season, the first instinct to avoid any rest or "injured" status is powerful.
I don't really see how this team allows fewer runs than the Mets. Their pitching is total garbage, and that bull pen is going to be going 3+ innings so regularly.
Why is there a discrepancy between the WARP listed in the DT section and the PECOTA section. In some players it also is also different on their charts.
So in unmentioned news, the mets decided to bring both mejia and tejada to the bigs, but didn't play tejada. Two bad moves, maybe he'll see more playing time in a bit. Then to top things off, Gary matthews jr started (are we trying to air him out for trades?) instead of pagan and Mike Jacobs(!) hit in front of Jason Bay. Its going to be a great season.
Though I am convinced we're going to be a better team than the marlins, especially if Cameron maybin doesn't learn how to field.
wait what happened to warp-2, -3?
Wow this is great. Thanks so much. Also thanks for the total warp sorted card page.
Free Joba! Seriously, has to be a team out there that can put him in a starting rotation and offer the yankees good trade bait.
There was a team who did a lot of backloaded deals that thought they had a magic money tree. It was called the madoff mets.
Why is it unlikely that the nats go with harper? Cash?
Of course, they could give him a long term contract(though of course his agent is a fan of those). They also might be getting revenue from Strasburg they might not otherwise. At least with him every four days there is something to watch.
Can we get revenue incorporated into these reports? Did the phillies really start earning more than the mets without a cable network? Or are they just spending more aggressively?
Not very useful. Is logan morrison 50 times better than espinosa? Would you really trade 10 guys in the 80's-90s for strasburg?
Super conservative on Upton no? 22 year olds generally improve their game don't they? or at least with 100 extra pa's get as many homers or sb's. not to mention that he spent about 70 ab's in the 6 hole or higher, which probably won't be the case this year.
interesting that that 4 year stretch marked the last time for four consecutive teams.
These payrolls are based on average annual value?
Also, who projected happ to have 4.17 ERA? Pecota says 3.86
Nitpicky thing, but the phils didn't leverage their farm system, they traded it. Its not like if halladay doesn't work out their farm system gets worse and if he does it gets better. Its almost the opposite.
It just seems really likely that J. Werth ain't coming back. The philles already have 130+ budgeted for next year. There going to at least have to hold steady, if not slash.
How about Chris carpenter only tossing 126 innings.
Yeah also the pujols predictions are very low.
This is the man who led the bigs in slugging for 3 of the last 4 years, so i'm not quite sure how fielder gets the edge.
This is the only team in the NL possibly better than the phils. But they're depending on a few players to be really really good. Still if it all works out they're a 90 win club for sure.
The downside is wasting money on a year when there is really no chance for us to catch the phils. But also, whose calling for us to score 760 runs?
Though i'm not sure why Pagan isn't projected to get more playing time given the season he had last year.
It's too bad this team isn't built to win now, because Wright and Reyes could put together a massive season that would get lost on the pitchers mound.
I think Vazquez is going to severely under perform this projection. Last time he played in for the yanks he had an era of 4.9. That was when he was 27. No pirates or nationals or strikeout happy marlins in this league. But it makes sense to see the DC finally picking the yanks.
then why the hell would you sign jason bay? ugh.
I was working on a warp3 list, was getting mostly similar results. But let me say that this really shows why probably only lincecum belongs on this list of the pitchers. You wouldn't have picked Rivera or Vazquez or Santana. Maybe you would have picked Halladay and Oswalt, I really don't know. Point is, you have to get a ton of innings to have a chance. Santana barely made the list with his 09 injuries.
The other take away from this list is that Pujols has to be number one, as bonds basically shows. Pujols is years younger than bonds and has never been anything less than great since hitting the bigs.
Only one way to go.
Even robo pitcher though, having given up one run going into inning 4 becomes a liability.
So here's the reason this robot doesn't get a contract. No one leaves him in for 7 innings. Look at the list of 5.0+ra allowed guys. There are a million relievers with lower era's than that. They don't get those ra's by giving up 4 in seven every time. They do it by giving up three/5 sometimes and 4 in five others. so you take them out after six because for the next marginal inning you're better off with your pen. Now this robot just lost about 30 innings a year.
Good luck Joe! Its been great reading your work.
Sign Arlodis Chapman. Hope that you can take your 6th draft slot and sign bryce harper with craaazy money.
The Met's really don't need to fix their offense.
They had the 14th best EQA last season, with the whole core getting hit. They were only 2 points behind another 7 collective teams. They are a top ten offense when firing on all cylinders and a fine defense too when beltran and reyes don't miss much of the season and you have a real first basemen.
Their pitching blows, but frankly, they can't really fix that this offseason. They need to do nothing then spend like crazy next season.
Its actually kind of incredible to me that the Jays weren't able to get more out of the phillies for the deal. If they don't trade him the phillies don't get another chance at such an incredible deal. The union would have rejected halladays deal if it went through on the open market. So that should have given the Jay's a ton of leverage.
Also, as to the NL East, this site for one says that on third order wins the Braves were the best team in the NL this season. Yes the phillies are to have a full season of a much better pitching staff, but the NL East could end up being the second best division this season (let's not even talk about the declines that Werth Ibanez and Howard are sure to have); I bet the phils will miss Lee in the end.
actually furthermore, both a-rod and Pujols have to be higher on this list. the threshold for making the cut is around 50 warp over the next ten years (based on taking a peek at the last ten years). I'd say pujols is a sure thing to make that list. Serious injury aside Pujols has one or two more seasons like the last three for sure. 10+warp He's done it 3 times, which if i'm not mistaken, only greinke has done it once from anyone on this list. Getting to 50 warp for the decade is really easy if you can do that once. If you do it twice you need less than 4 warp a season for your other years, which gives you room to get injured. On the other hand, being those great players that they are, arod and pujols are the least likely to turn out dud seasons.
Hanram may project for higher peaks from now going forward, but no one else has a better chance of not sucking than those old guys. I'd draft pujols first, a-rod sometime in the top ten.
A 33 year old signing for a Burnett contract?
You know, I'm going to have to argue that David Wright should be a lot closer to Ryan Braun then he is. We're talking about two guys who have the same career eqa, are a year apart and one plays third base, has a deeper track record with higher peaks and is projects as a defensive asset. Ryan Braun's figuring out Left Field aside, it's left field, and he's only had two great seasons. Dave has had 4.
Also 8 pitchers in the top twenty is probably way too high. Especially when 1 hasn't played in the bigs and two are rookies. I don't know if 8 pitchers don't have the last ten years highest warp totals(i doubt it), but i'm sure pegging them is harder. 10 years is a long time to throw 200 innings a year.
Slipped a bit is an understatement. How rare is it for a 25 year old to lose 80 points of slugging out of the blue?
On that yankee's legend issue, can they really expect to save money? I mean, Jeter has them over a barrel doesn't he, and rivera is actually worth his salary.
If jeter doesn't get what he wants and walks or causes a fuss he can actually hurt them right, and he's been worth it to them over the years.
And thus begins another year of the BP consensus setting up the phils for failure. I bet that Pecota finally gives them the edge over los mets this year though, but this year it will be the wrong choice again! I hope...
Actually the acceleration of his mass turns into the force applied to the ball through momentum if i'm not mistaken.
I frankly see the series as pretty simple. By team eqa the yankee's are the best offense of last 15 years. Its a huge gap between them and the phillies offensively and the phillies starting pitching edge isn't big enough to make up for their bullpen. Yankee's in 5.
Yeah you're really nailing it.
look he gave up a hit to a righty, then they made the right move. I say right choice when up 2 runs, especially if a tie leads you back to wanting one of your lefties.
Why was he in there?
This would a great time in the season to be able to rerun pecota on the remaining squads. We have a lot more data on all the players, and though there are lots of things you can do to try and treat these raw numbers from the season to be more accurate for this playoff situation, knowing which scott kazmir will show up in october is a job best left to a computer.
Pedro Martinez, the break out rookies (happ, bucholz, jackson, and in the reverse, joba), it'd be great to know where they trend, and I with my human mind don't know how to see through the noise.
Losing Jackson also cost them big time. Obviously that's hindsight, but what can you say, they'd probably be in the race if he had stayed with them.
Well, half the point is that the braves are dumb for not singing him, the other half is that everyone else is dumb for not signing him because he's a great player at an unbelievable price. I guess the third point is that the MLB should try and avoid braves like owners. But let's face it, if the braves had made this move, the nationals would either suck way more than they do or would be broker than they are. And look stupid.
Well, the math also suggests that everyone up to the rockies has a 41% chance of all making the playoffs. So there is till a 60 chance that some team not in those 8 will make it. Obviously its a little higher in the AL then the NL, but still its a good bit higher than your "all else" catch all.
60% percent chance of turn over isn't bad tv. And i'm glad that MLB isn't the NFL. This structure gets good races if there are lots of closely competent teams. If you don't have enough parity, it doesn't. That one can give you good sprints either way. You want good sprints, wait till October. I prefer a marathon.
Seriously, for all this talk of a crappy offense, park adjusted figures rank the mets in the top 15 of the league this year.
170 team vorp, good for 11th? If Reyes Delgado Beltran (and wright) aren't injured for over half of this seasons playing time its not crazy to imagine that the mets could have had another 40-70 more vorp. That makes them a top 5 or better Pretty sure they'd have fielded a better defense too. Yes the injuries happened, Carlos Delgado was a very known risk, but getting another first basemen isn't terribly hard in this market. Reyes Beltran and Wright, still the real deal. Don't trade any of them.
Their pitching, obviously still abysmal. Rebuilding will take time, but they're still going to have more payroll to spend and have some of the best core in the league. They'll be back soon.
Also, that possible upside makes sense if there is still time for surgery either way. Do you know what kind of downtime could be expected for beltran if surgery was necessary?
Are bone spurs an over use/abuse injury or a simple use/wear and tear injury?
Oy. There you go. Every single mets player of quality makes it to the dl this season. Has this happened before?
Also, shouldn't Santana be shut down for the season no matter what? Who really cares about those last 4 starts?
That the Mets are a disaster is a fine observation. But we are still not the Knicks! (and i'll note apparently not worse than last year's yankees.
I think this is really great analysis. Any more backward looking in the works? I would consider this a great litmus test of the legacy of certain GM's.
On the other hand, I trust the work of the great nate, but how sticky are marginal earnings? Are the shea faithful really going to spend 30 million less to see this team than they would have to see that team we paid for? Thats not an excuse for ineffectiveness, but it portends seriously for a team like the ray's future.
Oh my god! This is the first real light shed into the mets recent woe's to date. I was trying to figure out why alex cora was batting with a fish.
can the mets catch a break? answer: No.
I'm just wondering how if your coefficients might be deceptively significant given the high correlation between the two. If by dropping one variable you found p stats changing dramatically there might be something wrong with the coefficients on the full regression.
I should have said Professor Tayon. We didn't say either rob or bob, so it looks like I guessed wrong. Ahem.
I used the wrong word, I didn't mean Multi collinearity exactly. I meant to ask specifically about the relationship between the variance of runs scored in an inning and the variance on runs scored in a game, or predictions about total runs scored in the game. This would be important to understand in the debate on obp/slg. If a team is set up to be as likely as possible to score a run in an inning, can that help them score more later in the game significantly? Does scoring 2 runs in an inning have a greater effect on scoring at other points in the game than 1? i don't think pitcher era's or team offensive levels are grounds for tossing it out nessecarily. certainly for the team offense you could normalize with some success against the year's average results . Obviously it could turn up meaningless results, but if they were significant in some way, there are a number of different narratives that could be spun .
-Thats cool regarding individual runs per inning. thanks for doing that. That coefficient on slugging for one run is huge, and is a complex mathmatical way of describing why you walk albert pujols in close games(not last night though).
-As for the OBP/slg correlation, what happens if you drop one of the variables from the regression? Isn't that a good test for multicollinearity even though the variables aren't collinear. Apologies to Professor Tayon if I fail to grasp these concepts fully.
Haha, you have two conflicting comments at the end here; some want more data some suggest less jargon. Good luck finding the balance. (I was taught stats by another penn econ phd, bob tayon, maybe you know him, following wasn't too hard)
The article was interesting. Questions I had: Any multi collinearity with runs per inning and runs per game stemming perhaps from the correlation between high variance in runs scored(i.e. lots of high run innings) and additional high run innings coming in the same game. As you pointed out, to miss the context of the runs within the game is somewhat problematic. Easy ways I can think to get started would be testing for the correlation between scoring x runs in an inning and scoring more in more than .29 percent of the remaining innings. After all, pitch counts, poor relievers ect. Not sure what the implications of this might be.
Other things, aren't slugging and obp really highly correlated(A really quick attempt to prove that led me to realize that I have no interns or data sets. shoot)? Can you still do that last trick and compare the probability of scoring x+ runs per inning over many x's and say things about the coefficients relative to one another? What are the p values on those regressions like? Could you also run those regressions on the probability of scoring x runs per game, not x plus, that way ranges of runs scored could be aggregated, and the correlation for scoring one run in a game and slugging would give something negative perhaps.
Wait let's clarify? Beltran could go right now and get the surgery and have a chance of playing 2010, but is instead playing for this season? Excuse me?
But seriously, What a guy.
Yeah but, seriously, what the fuck? Minaya just seems like a clown now. Maybe the A's want to fire Billy Beane?
Yeah the mets are awful right now; frankly this year isn't as bad as last year though. Everybody watches bad teams now and again; September surprise death traps can't be watched by men with mortal hearts. I'll take dl mishaps over september doldrums anyday. We still have the best 4 man core in baseball next year(yes, santana will bounce back).
This is interesting analysis, and a really cool approach to trying to determine a players individual contribution to organizational bottom line.
A couple of things you might also try: Stub hub prices on pitchers day. Thats good for marginal value fans add on those days, tough to extrapolate towards total value, but could give some evidence(or more death notice) to the franchise player.
Also, can you publish your methodology of valuation for making the playoffs and an individual win? If we're basing all of this on the revenue implications of marginal wins, it might be trickier to extrapolate additional revenue on a day by day basis beyond that. After all, in a macro sense, the doc's marginal revenue value to the jays already includes the revenue effects of those days when the team looks more likely to win, on what is probably only a evenly prorated basis. This stems from the multiplication of his warp total and the price per win.
Is there any conceivable way to find out how teams revenue changes on a year to year basis with performance? Regress revenue with win percentage, post season gear and look for collinearity? Is the implication of all these value per win figures that with enough 95 win seasons the mets would take over as the revenue champions of new york? If that is not so is there a seamy underbelly to all this analysis? If adding a win to go from 88 on the season to 89 can't statistically significantly gain you x million dollars, what is all this advanced analysis worth?
Well, probalby most of the very good pitching lines of the last 25 years come from the hall of the very good, as their legion is quite a bit larger than the hall of fame.
But for someone like Justin Upton or Matt Weiters or Pat Burrell this doesn't make a lot of sense. I mean maybe it does, you'd have to test it.
In the case of weiters for example that lovely pecota projection obviously hasn't panned out, and there is a ton more data on him now, data that clearly diverges off the rocket like trajectory he was on until this season (I think you'd have to be a fool in retrospect to say pecota got a little fooled by sample size, maybe i'm out of bounds here, i grovel to nate silver). he's got an eqa of 230 or so and very little translated performance before that that gave him a super strong pecota. If he had started his career five months earlier and performed this way after being called up for two months last season his pecota projection this year would not be for a rosy 800 obp after he did 675.
Likewise with Upton he's on a much more certain track now for the rest of his career, that is outweighed by a conservative pecota forecast. Maybe he will only pick up another 8 vorp for the rest of the season, but I can't imagine that a rerun pecota would tell us that.
So long story short, can't we just rerun the comps?
well, they did. I mean, it doesn't look logical thinking, but they might be vindicated.
No I meant post-facto. But thanks.
Is it time yet to evaluate the Manny deal of last season? has this been done on this site yet?
But is it a blackballing/listing? Can a team from a legitimate revenue perspective not want bonds on the team? Is that legal under the current agreement?
Do injuries held over from last year ala wagner get counted?
Is the Met's training staff doing an awful job, or is this just really, really really bad luck. We're now looking at like what something like 5-20 lost projected warp to injuries (especially if you count wagner) this season. I mean, every single one big injuries were known issues, so is that mitigating for the training room and minayas problem or something that they failed to rise up to time and again.
Also if I can say that if Santana goes beyond the 7th ever this season I'm going to scream. I mean I might anyway. I know from a revenue perspective we can't just punt on the rest of the season too openly, but really given the amount of money we're paying wright and santana and the quality team we could put together in 2010 its time. Can we trade sheffield? To Tampa?
Should Beltran be shut down if reyes ends up staying delayed?
Its really too bad. If you had told me that we would sign Gary Sheffield for minimum and he would have a .314 eqa with maybe 500 pa's and that Jimmy Rollins was hitting this way and Myers was out for the season in march I would have said that we could get away with losing one of our stars. And we could have. Just not two of them, plus delgado. And why am I not elated for the return of Big Game Ollie.
Matt Wieters also falls into this category. I'd love to see a pecota projection re run based on his newest numbers at triple a and the bigs.
Can you just not write about the mets for a few days? My doctor would just prefer if you lied to me.
The day before Jerry Manuel did exactly the opposite, putting poor little darren Day in to face the N.L.'s toughest hitter in the deciding moment, which results in Cantu's game winning single. Perhaps he learned the next night? I don't know what to say about this.
Gary Sheffield, future Hall of Famer! :)
Big question for this team is actually the same as for the mets, how does their bullpen compare to last year.
Brad Lidge can't be expect to keep up his ludicrous fb/hr rate especially in citizens bank, and another 5 win season seems out of the question. Matt diaz will not be the only one to take him yard this year.
Next big question, whose going to be worse, joe blanton or oliver perez? And if Jamie moyer finally comes back to earth, this could end up being an team that has to work to make it to 84 wins.
Kaz is really the greatest risk among the bunch including 3 guys with less than 40 major league innings between them?
Yeah this looks true now eh?
Just going to say, for non baseball reasons, no way Hernandez gets that contract. I'm going to wager that in three years the yankees really regret locking into this economies salaries this offseason because the market is going to shed 15-20% off contracts, maybe more.
As a baseball prospectus reader, can you really throw out career slash stats and expect it to hold water as an argument.
Wright career eqa .316 career warp total 32
Utley career eqa . 301 career warp total 28
And thats in one less year and 4 years younger.
He's a better baseball player. Or don't trust the numbers.
Han Ram never once picked outright for MVP. Hmmm.
Santana's top comp is frank viola, who literally had the exact same career path up to his year 30 season.
And wow. The truth is that this division will actually be a run away if that pitching staff fires on all cylinders. If a combination of clay or smoltz can replace wakefielf full time, or if penny can figure out his shoulder this team looks like 100 wins.
Hey, is there any way to get kevin youkilis' pecota card to be named something other than youkike.
overpaid for hamilton?
Hey aren\'t Supervorp\'s 2008 data points supposed to be pretty much last year\'s vorp total. I notice several players for whom this ain\'t true (santana, pelfrey).
Hey Clay, general questions. How come total wins and losses don\'t add up to each other. Same with runs scored and allowed.
Wait Clay. It really doesn\'t affect the projection at all? Moyer innings are certainly different than Kendrick innings. So if they aren\'t included, the projection would differ. Right?
This is from a Met\'s fan who just doesn\'t want false hopes to fail to be robust for the third damn time in a row.
So how did this affect the projection for the phils? The man is probably going to pitch at least 80 innings this year. He could prevent 10 runs for them, he could prevent 30. Can we through in some dummy projection?
Should you count Billy Wagner as out for the mets?
One met fan sure can hope. They do seem to be towing an awfully hard line. Here\'s hoping Boras won\'t let them walk too far away when it comes time for that last 5 million.
In other news, I take it from the wording of your PECOTA toss that Nate didn\'t run the monkey this year? Does that mean he\'s gone?!
Seriously. I love 538, but I\'d rather have the nate silver baseball show than the congressional coverage. Don\'t let him slip away! My two cents.
How much better is this gang than last years? There are several high ceiling players, but the players closest to the show other than murphy seem to have taken steps back not forward.
Sometimes I feel like the 2007-8 mets were specifically designed for the pain of their fans.
Build expectations around an amazing core, have a time bomb closer that gets older every year, an ace who is infuriatingly prevented from finishing certain games, one of the most bipolar pitchers in the bigs, and oh yeah a bullpen that just can\'t cut it and loses more games after the 7th than anyone. Maximum number of late game losses plus maximum late season loses? My heart is bleeding. The 2007 collapse was statistically improbable. But multiplied by the next year\'s collapse (92 peak) and you have some real stochastic anguish.
And I should stop before I break the keys on my keyboard.
Great plan joe, ever step away from it that omar makes will be painstakingly reviewed on september 30th next year when we inevitably collapse again.
Mets: Sign another 80 innings of good pitching and 40 innings of mediocre pitching. Get Adam Dunn.