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Jared
14 comments | 6 total rating | 0.43 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/37523
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

I was hoping for a line or two on Contreras, but good explanation on the Ruiz signing. Chooch is a very solid catcher, now hopefully he keeps progressing like he has... especially in the playoffs! He's certainly worth the risk, which isn't excessive anyways

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 3

no, i don't blame ruben for those moves. i think he got good value in the polanco deal (i think he's an upgrade over Feliz, and we're only paying him half a million more... good value in my mind), and he didn't pay the other guys much so im not sure where your complaint is. i guess you are saying that he acted too fast, and should have waited to see how things shook out and tried to grab a bargain late in the offseason? if so, i disagree with that strategy. im fine with him being decisive, and acting when he has a chance to sign the player he wants at the price he is comfortable with.

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

I see what you're saying, but I think Ruben was handcuffed by ownership. I don't think he would have been allowed to take on the Halladay contract, without offsetting it by trading another player. That being said, I really wish they would have traded Blanton instead, which would have certainly netted us less prospects but would have gone a long way to offset the extra Halladay money. An additional 2M for Lee over Blanton seems like it would have been an easy sell to ownership... That being said, I think Ruben had to move fast to make this deal happen, and he did what he had to to get his guy... he's wanted Halladay all along. If there is anyone to blame, direct it at ownership... but keep in mind that 140M is a lot of money

Dec 17, 2009 6:35 AM on Floridians Breathe Easy
 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 2

You're right, a lot of Phillies fans are PISSED at the Lee deal... but, a lot of the same fans were PISSED last year when we got Lee instead of Doc (even though the Lee trade was brilliant, and I understood why we didn't pull the trigger on Doc at the time... even though the idea of both of them in a Phillies uniform, starting last year, would have been enticing to say the least and no fan in their right mind would have been mad about the gamble)

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 2

As a phillies fan, i have a strong belief that the Lee deal was two thirds ownership, one third Ruben. I have heard more about the phillies 140M payroll over the past couple weeks than i ever could have imagined, so it's clear that ownership didn't want to go above this number. The 6M coming back from the Jays, and the subsequent trade of Lee's 9M contract screams that ownership wouldn't have let Ruben go over this budget. That being said, Ruben could have been a little more creative. He could have traded blanton's 7M, and sold ownership on the benefits of keeping Lee over Blanton for only 2M. Granted, i'm sure he explored this option, but probably didn't get many bites on a Blanton trade which made him explore what he could get for Lee. He clearly likes the prospects from the M's, and even though he probably could have waited it out and possibly found a better deal for Lee, it seems obvious that ownership wouldn't have allowed the Halladay trade without knowing that another significant salary was coming off the books at the same time. So, i think a part of the Lee trade was Ruben thinking that he needed to restock the system, but a much bigger part was that ownership had his hands tied from the start and Ruben knew it was now or never if he wanted to get his guy... and he did what he needed to do to make it happen. At the end of the day, i'm happy with the trade. I think all teams involved should be happy. We now have an ace locked up at a reasonable salary for 4 years, which is essentially the Phillies "window of opportunity" with their current core. If my theory about Ruben being handcuffed by ownership is correct, I think he made a prudent decision to sacrifice one year of Lee for four of Doc, while also restocking the farm a bit. I'm not mad at Ruben for making this decision, and it's also tough to be too mad at ownership when trying to be objective and looking at it from the business side... 140M isn't a small number. And obviously, the M's and Jay's made out well in this deal also...

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 1

as a fellow phillies fan, let me say that i disagree wholeheartedly. how can you say the lee trade last year was "worthless", did you not watch the playoffs? we wouldn't have made it to the world series without Lee, and making it to the WS is worth a lot to me... bottom line - halladay is an upgrade over lee, especially when you factor in the contract certainty... how can you criticize 4 guaranteed years of arguably the best pitcher in baseball? so alright, i don't think anyone would argue that in isolation, the deal between the phils and the jays makes sense. we get an ace, at a reasonable contract, for at least 4 years (plus 6M).. and they get some high upside prospects. then, you look at the lee side of things. half a year of lee (and a hell of a half year it was), aumont, gillies, and ramirez vs. knapp, carrasco, donald and marson. i think that side made a lot of sense for the phils also... well done ruben i bet the same phillies fans who are complaining now, were also complaining last year when we didn't trade for halladay... funny how that works

Dec 16, 2009 4:23 PM on Floridians Breathe Easy
 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

Halladay press conference in about an hour, to announce the deal is final. The trade is essentially two seperate trades, Phils trade prospects to Jay's for Halladay, M's trade prospects to Phils for Lee... same prospects that have been speculated on for the past two days... can't wait to read your analysis Joe!

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 1

my first impression was: why would the d-backs make a trade like this without obtaining a bat in return? i don't follow them closely, but weren't they one of the worst offensive clubs in baseball last year? seems like if they are going to trade two young, promising arms, they should be looking for a bat in return. after upton, who is a threat in that lineup? too bad they gave up on quentin...

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: -4

baseballprospectus gives the Phillies no love, once again. please explain to me why the defending champions, who have dramatically improved their lineup this season with the acquisitions of Lee and Ibanez, can be ranked as low as 8? i understand that they aren't as PECOTA friendly as some other top-tier teams, but anyone who watches them play knows that they have as good a shot as anyone to win the World Series this year. i remember reading an article early in the year about PECOTA projecting the Braves to finish ahead of the Fightins, and although i preach the benefits of advanced statistics to some of my peers, conclusions like that show that stats can only go so far, especially in team evaluation. i know i'm biased as a fan, but did anyone who follows these teams actually think that the phillies would finish anywhere other than first place in the NL East?

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

"The ultimate method would involve comparing the Pitcher's OPS vs Elite/vs Everyone to the Batter's OPS vs Elite/vs Everyone to see which had a larger spread." it's a shame that this article couldn't be expanded, b/c i'd love to see the numbers that you refer to above. that being said, i like the idea behind the article, and the information that is presented is logical and concise... although it doesn't necessarily come to any groundbreaking conclusion, the fact that the numbers aren't shocking is a conclusion in itself. being new to the advanced statistical analysis contained on this site, the article reads well. i'm admittedly not as sophisticated as many of the previous readers, but probably more knowledgable than an espn.com reader, and for me this was an enjoyable read. as a side note, i wish i could find more articles about defensive metrics, especially for individual players. anyone have any suggestions?

Jun 22, 2009 10:34 AM on Ultimate Matchups
 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

any thoughts on the phillies selection of brody colvin in the 7th, and jacob stewart in the 14th? signability concerns? they both seem to have great upside, and we have time to let them develop in the minors... also, does anyone have more athletic/toolsy outfielders in their minor league system than the fightins?

Jun 11, 2009 6:00 AM on Marooning Montreal
 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

"The Cubs' Jake Fox answered any questions about whether his eye-popping Triple-A numbers would translate in the Majors, going 2-for-3 with an RBI in his first two games since Wednesday's promotion." this line drives me crazy... you're really going to draw a conclusion from his first three at-bats? even if he had been in the bigs all year long i'd still contend that it's a small sample size, but three at-bats? come on now... all the prospects mentioned are owned in any competitive league. that being said, you should have focused more on trade value... for example, how much should i give up for david price, or should i sell wieters now with all the buzz around him (elite prospects often take a year or two to figure out big league pitching - see justin upton). even mentioning that hanson not being called up yet could make him a more attractive (cheaper) trade target than a guy like price, for an owner in need of SP. analysis like that would be relevant to any league.

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 0

i don\'t think it\'s mindless, i think it\'s a good idea for an article... i still say utley and longoria are the most valuable players (in the context of this article, we\'re really talking about value over the other teams player at said position). picking hamels first wouldn\'t get an argument out of me either, the only reason i\'d go utley/longoria over hamels is b/c of the likelihood of hamels only pitching in two games this series. as a phils fan, i\'m hoping for rain saturday! that way, hamels has a better chance at making three appearances. that being said, upton is having one heck of a postseason... he had some big hits last night, and plays a great center field, so i can understand him as the #1 pick... just comes down to preference, and my philadelphia bias

 
Jared
(37523)
Comment rating: 1

im surprised utley didn\'t go first, i think the gap between him and iwamura is greater than between upton and victorino. maybe even longoria over upton also...