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Nice article. I was under the impression that this has been the operating system since the last cba. I guess I'm surprised to learn some teams haven't been doing it. Regardless, I don't realistically see it changing until there's changes in incentive for teams and it seems a pretty fine point for the league to worry about. Plus the first hour or so if Day 3 is suddenly interesting 🆙🎦
Yeah I've done zero research on this but it sure looks that way. NBA players that turned pro at 18 show similar aging curves but there hasn't been a ton of them this successful. But I assume Pujols is probs 2 years older. I understand that this is considered terribly offensive and am not trying to exercise cultural bias. The numbers just suggest this. If his age is accurate, then he's arguably the greatest hitter of all time.
Nice article. I find listening to various teams announcers on MLB to be really enlightening on the subject of change. They are chosen for a variety of reasons but several of them involve representation of value systems and negotiating the audiences' experience of baseball. The empirical 'sharing' they perform brings up most of the uptake issues you raise.
Ok so it's weird to me that no one is talking about this but Dombrowski has practically stripped the best minor league system in baseball. Everyone wondered a year ago how long it would take and now we know. Yes the Red Sox look really good for the next few years and have an abundance of young stars, but wow. Saying it will happen and seeing it happen is nuts.
That 2011 drafts also the draft that broke the system. When the Red Sox started copying then the league wasn't so happy. Maybe it was for the best that it didn't turn out for the Rays. Just thinking out loud and wonderful job on these so far.
Bad coding on the vids! I need my vids! To go with your fine writing ;-)
Excellent point! Beane operates in a bubble that almost no other team exists in except maybe the Marlins (who at least pretend to want to keep their stars and don't pretend to not make money). The 'always striving' sell that the A's offer is seemingly tired and I find it hard to believe that they honestly can't just build a team at least in a somewhat more transparent fashion. Yet typing that, I realize that roster turnover is pretty great for almost every team and maybe we see a bit of our(readership) bias in it.
The devaluation of marquee is an interesting path of inquiry. On the opposite side and in a different sport, the NBA offers multiple stooges who trade to put fans in the seats while losing the value/salary end of the deal.
What I find even more fascinating is 'moral price' the Reds paid. I doubt many Reds fans consider Chapman a bad guy yet the organization dumped him at his absolute lowest point out of what can only be thought of as negative association. Even though Cincinnati was by far the safest place for Chapman to be and resurrect his reputation. It was a knee jerk move at best and something were aren't supposed to talk about here at worst yet it severely damaged the team in terms of value. My point being that wishing for that kind of return is improbable if the Reds can't be objective about their players/assets.
I agree that the unbalanced schedule is too unbalanced. Put intra division games at 13 or 14. More interesting product.
Increase roster size by 2 but limit the number of pitchers to less than 50%.
I hear people say 'not a true cleanup hitter' or words to that effect every single day! On television and in print. Bill James' screeds are getting a bit old I'm afraid. They can be entertaining but when you have people who actually run numbers that circumvent his beliefs it stops being about any form of objectivity.
Sounds more like he's arguing about uniquely effective pitchers as a class. Not groundballers in particular. Not to mention that the more guys you strike out the better ;-)
Rather than expand, I think teams should increase roster size to 27. The attributes you point to also emphasize the lack of room in the position player side of the roster. Every team in the league could use at least one more hitter on it's bench.
Team mandated opt out gives the team the option of paying for the years they feel most confident about. If the going rate for a pitcher like Price is 7 or 8 years, then you shorten your obligation by including an opt out. The Cubs essentially signed Heyward to a 3 year deal. It's smart. Certainly Sabathia is the negative result, sort of, but that's the risk part.
Nicely put together article sir!
Good amount of attitude today :-). That AJ play is wonderful.
Really good work! I have one quibble that's been building over time now: Isn't there obviously two win value scales? There's Free Agent value and there's Pre FA value. Surely all teams use this math? Using this would explain (beyond pressure from the Offices of the Commissioner) why a strategy like this hasn't been pursued by teams that meet your criteria.
Thank you RJ. Transactions have indeed been fun & informative and just the tip of the iceberg I'm sure.
Again late to the rodeo. Dodgers have a bunch of good young SPs almost ready. They are making room for them. See how they turn out before jumping on a big time starter.
I completely agree that tying draft pool money is the real issue and an easy fix. Teams will be perfectly happy to sign QO FA's if they still get some dough to spend on picks. It's a way of keeping the game healthy.
A bigger problem that is tied to this is roster management. With almost every team carrying 13 pitchers, there is 30-50 less jobs for position players(!). Which is just as big a factor in this equation as QO. It is arguable that now that the strategy of max pitcher matchup is unified across the league, the advantage will shift to teams willing to carry one or two extra bench bats (imagine!) so that they can combat the switches effectively. I'd love to see you address this in a deeper fashion. Good article!
I've always understood that the setup of the catcher will influence calls by forcing the umpire to move from one side to the other. Is there a data breakdown for this that can be put in?
Daniel you do great work, so this is no criticism of you, but I'd like to see a 'the Dodgers endless coffers' filter applied to all rumors everywhere. It's very clear that they are building a balanced org and not going to spend on just anybody. I would look for their payroll to stay level or decline going forward.
That said, Chen would seem the perfect target for them. Kazmir is way too risky. They also have good AAA depth, which never gets acknowledged.
I'll add on that Randy is very entertaining. I'd be quite willing to follow the Marlins with the suggested additions.
Tight as in clever & efficient, yes. Yeah I think the transition of limited resource GM's into deep pocket teams is changing the dynamic. The teams I follow closely have 2-3 obvious churn slots on the 40. My only concern is when they have too many out of option players but we might be seeing that becoming less of a concern.
Some tight writing in here RJ. I like to think budget is playing pretty hard too. Some teams seem quite averse to spending the relatively small sums.
When I was a kid and we played sandlot ball, we would put a player 'where the hitter usually hits the ball'. I never thought about it. And we were happy if that person made the play. But as I got older, the history & symmetry of traditional defensive placement seemed logical and created 'fairness of opportunity'. Using an asymmetrical defense is of course more efficient but changes our idea of 'fairness'. What I find interesting about this is that it's changing batter habits. In combination with contemporary pitcher usage, hitting the ball where they ain't is becoming increasingly more common. I expect this trend to continue & pull hitters(or that habit) to lose market position. I don't know if that breaks the game, but it sure changes it.
Thank you for the fine work Jeff. MLU is the cream in my coffee.
Hey I'm late to this but I would like to point to Russell's 3rd time SP numbers. Considering the general environment, isn't a third <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> indicative of a dominant performance by a starter? In which case Russell's numbers aren't so out of whack? I'm betting a good portion of those PA's are against the Kershaws of the world.
I'm late to this, but what an eye opener! I suddenly see how a 60 grade anything is impressive. I too am shocked by the relative plain-ness of both teams. Great work.
Just to clarify: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69172">Kyle Hendricks</a></span> has been the Cubs best or second best starter the last 6 weeks.
Peltzmeier in the 9th round went to the Cubs.
Oh hey, wait a minute
Hah! Yankees gonna get Whitley.
He's a Cuban. Been around a couple of seasons. Slowly building tools to skills. 1B is a blocked position in Chi org above him & he isn't the greatest outfielder. Cubs people don't rate him particularly high but he's not off the radar.
Rickey had a lot of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Pete+Rose">Pete Rose</a></span> in him. Crazy competitor.
Agreed. It's an embarrassment to the people continually bringing it up since there are many 'unconscious' choices being revealed. Non particularly flattering.
I think the desperation is in the media & ground down fans. The Cubs were assembled this off season so that if Baez wasn't ready, he'd go to Iowa and there'd be no problem. La Stella & Alcantara can both play 2nd, not to mention several other place holders. Same with 3rd base & Bryant. The only spot of reliance may be RF where not having Soler play is gonna hurt.
As a longtime Cubs fan, I think we are a year ahead of ourselves. Being a .500 team is a good goal. The kids are really really young and if it takes Baez another 500 AAA ab's, no one is going to freak out.
The day after Clayton Kershaw day is always such a drag.
Houston reportedly also getting RH reliever James Hoyt.
Buster Olney implies the Rockies knew of the Mets strong interest and that's why they tagged him. Smart move by Rockies then. But also, the Mets can now sign tagged players at a much lower penalty. Which is a weird but tangible advantage going forward.
Also I think we will see a lot of 1B platoon going with Cuddyer. The Mets need bats in the worst way. I wouldn't be surprised if they went after Robertson to close.
Puzzling dead years 2008-10: disincentive to win. Garnering draft position. The Dayton Moore model is the one many teams now look to. Sorry about that Royals fans. In fact, whenever I see puzzling annual mediocrity by a team, I think 'stealth rebuild'.
Actually I think he'll just rebuild the bullpen and the left side of the infield.
And just how have you paid for 'Moneyball'? I love inadvertent existential questions ;-)
We just ignore the Brighten the Corners people ;-)
But you've overlooked two salient facts:
1. Why was the defense playing him to pull? i.e. 2nd baseman holding the runner on...
2. Buck was his original manager and wanted to give him a going away present.
How can these things be overlooked????
These are a pleasure to read Daniel. The end of summer has me thinking about how I'm going to miss the column. Thanks for the good work!
Great writeup Jeff. I'm very curious now that there seems to be a working pipeline of Cuban talent. Does a players Series Nacional work factor much in a teams analysis going forward? Roenis Elias comes to mind as someone who didn't get a lot of attention but has held his own in the bigs. Would you say Siverio compares somewhat to him, maybe with less stuff?
Total freakin' agreement! Good luck Professor.
Surfer for god you mean ;-)
Moore has had some things not work out, which is normal. Having your 3 stud hitters all fall flat on their faces is tough to overcome. I thought the Royals were a little too obvious with their program(tanking) but mostly it was exacerbated by how poorly previous regimes had done.
Do we consider the Angels to have been blocking the A's in aquiring Beckham? He seemed a solid target for them really.
Joey Pancake!!! That dudes a hitter. He shouldn't have lasted till the 7th.
Good piece Zachary. I've not heard much from the 'should have taken it' side in the general media, which makes sense because it goes against the greater meme regarding the Astros. And most support Close and Aiken for being strong willed in the face of the insulting nature of Astros offers timeline. But I've got to wonder if there wasn't wiggle room in the last hours to get an offer of close to 6 and make both of Close's clients happy. One is left to assume Aiken's team just said screw you to the Astros, but that doesn't seem quite an acceptable result from an agents POV. Thoughts?
Yeah I'm a bit surprised at the absence of DJ Peterson as well. I was under the assumption he'd be in the 30s. But, otherwise, fantastic read ;-)
You would be following him tho, wouldn't you Farrah?
Sam miller is god
You know, I think a great deal of market forces were at work here. One year from now Cabrera's leverage is far higher and he's only a season removed from being a free agent. And all kinds of voices can whisper to him about how much the Yankees would pay him (imagine him hitting in Yankee Stadium 3!). Scherzer is the perfect example of what could and most likely would happen. He(Scherzer) may have been the catalyst for this deal in fact.
Secondly, the Tigers want to keep their HOFer. 30m won't seem so crazy in 5-6 years. He was 'ridiculously overpaid' a few years if I remember correctly. Now that contract looks quite affordable. Yes, there is a monstrous amount of evidence pointing to his decline coming at some point near. But that misses the point more than a little. These arguments are the arguments of accounting and reporting. The Tigers are paying a lot to make sure they keep their superstar. Good for them. Plus they get to say FU to Scherzer. One can call that childish all they want, but it has no bearing whatsoever on reality to do so.
Tigers fans should be happy they get to keep him. Because the truth is clearly management thought the threat of leaving was real. Probably correctly as it would seem their window is closing and going forward IT IS better to have Cabrera than not.
Sure he is.
This is a beautiful piece Sam. That Ira Glass quote must have really hit you, I admit it surprised me. As a creative type, I'd never given him credit as such, even tho he did (re)invent a genre. Those RadioLab guys should be paying him royalties. ;-)
As a longtime Cubs fan I applaud your nerve in verbalizing such dreams. In my version we trade Wellington Castillo for a first division type receiver. And I don't think we need Price. Otherwise, I'm in complete agreement with your vision. ;-)
The NCAA should just amend the rule to open it for players subject to a professional draft once their sports regular season has concluded.
I agree Rodney is a solid investment. Personally I like him as a closer. The M's have a shaky rotation, so the deeper the pen the better. But more importantly they need to rebuild their brand, both with fans and inside the league. After the multiple player debacles of the last few years, it seems no one wants to go there. Spending money and having success will change that. Not that I think N Cruz will help that much. He'll be terrible in the outfield and seems the perfect marine layer victim. I'll be shocked if he tops 25 home runs. A big part of Jack Z's job was clearly to limit the damage Eric Wedge could do so lets hope Lloyd doesn't kill us by pretending outfield defense doesn't matter.
What's up with the Lee Smith contingent? Over 9% difference? I wish there were other closers on there so we could see if the wind always blows that way.
This is what I think as well. The number of teams that had four quality starters was very low. The caveat being that they tended to win, maybe where 'pitching wins pennants' comes from. Spend a little time looking at team stats from t945-60 or the 30's and you see that the scarcity of quality pitching is about the same as today if not worse.
If anything, I think that the evolution of bullpen usage looks downright efficient considering the numbers. I would say that there are a lot of factors at work here: pitchers throw harder, strikeouts are valued more, fielding is far more efficient, 3 true outcomes are the focus on both sides of the ball, better athletes in general.
But to support the argument for a four man rotation, we now uniformly have the bullpen depth to support it. Plus it would/could return a position player to the bench. Another thing to consider is that most teams run a de facto 4 man rotation as you discuss the first 6 - 7 weeks of the season.
Thanks for the thinking points Russell!
I'm of the mind that the Cards signed Peralta because he can hit. And he's shown versatility of positions, with SS being the big one he can hold down. I wouldn't expect him to keep that position beyond 2 years.
Also, I'm under the assumption that players use various PEDs for recovery purposes: the idea being that it speeds the process. Certainly there are many training programs to increase usable strength that don't involve PEDs, so why choose them unless a specific purpose is in mind?(I'm going to ignore the whole young & foolish men angle.) I think the blame game has more to do with gossip and news making since the risk is fairly large on the players part. I certainly don't agree with Buster Olney on the matter, mostly because it denies the idea that people didn't win the competition for a certain job cause they couldn't hit or pitch to the acceptable level.
Thank you for busting these lists out at a high rate. I love having them as reference so early in the Hot Stove season. Your effort is highly appreciated.
Wow that's really impressive of the Cards. At least from the point of valuing that type of roster building.
There's also the idea that Houston is tanking and will be thru the '15 season. And that beating Miami for that #1 slot every round as well as the 'bad team' bonus picks is very hard work. So having a bullpen that actually works well is a serious disincentive. But I think that the cumulative effects of having so many young players wipes out all specific areas of finger pointing. The Diamondbacks are the outliers in the BS department, that mostly because of injury. The Cubs are also tanking. As are a number of other teams. Maybe the analysis should be differentiated along the lines of who is actually trying to win from the top down. Regardless, I love that you did these numbers. Good article.
Yes, thank you Zach. This is a great column.
Safeco destroys most hitters. Lefty or not.
Add me to the list highly entertained by that pic of Vogelbach. Boy looks like a hitter.
Surely Wendle got more than $10,000 as a 6th round pick!
Nice work. Now we need a control for poor starting pitching. ;-)
Sam, you don't explicitly say, but the Cubs are paying Marmol's salary right?
Well, like Sam alluded, I think the Astros were/are marketing some slots. Honestly I'm very happy to see this solution to the current rules restrictions.
Kinda takes the danger out of the wager. Doesn't move the needle for me regardless.
Thank you thank you thank you for writing this.
Jeez, poor Gary Brown. Is there a mechanical problem? Certain people were so very sure of him.
I also think it's important to remember that Hawk isn't in the front office of a MLB club. He was for a misguided bit of time where he didn't distinguish himself, but he's an announcer. Without insult to anyone, he's an extremely easy target ;-)
Really nice article. Have any thoughts on the input of the Padres staff? His manager was a rather infamous junk baller himself.
Yes, this is great. I like the cleaner presentation.
Any speculative thoughts on why the Royals would choose Johnson over Brignac? Assuming they had the choice to make.
So I just want to say that I don't quite understand everyone putting Torii Hunter in the 2 hole for Detroit. That's crazy hot stove talk. He's gonna be hitting 6th and that'll work. I doubt Detroit will miss 60 extra Torii ABs.
Not that the two have anything to do with one another.
Plus plus mustache. Thats rich ;-)
Isn't the HoF fun! So the veterans committee will have a lot to choose from in 10 years. The game changes and eras are eras. The 30's make the 00's look tame. Arguing about drugs is foolishness.
Or would teams in offense oriented parks try to minimize the opposition by going without the DH?
What about the salary floor? Aren't they supposed to be somewhere in the 30's at least? That's why Miami needs Nolasco, so the commish/union can't dock em somehow.
I would love it if all foreign names were translated as such.
Snappy work you're doing with this column, keep it up!
Towers! Old skool booooyyyyyyy!
If Choo gets hurt again this will really blow up. At least the Reds will get a sandwich pick - cause they will offer arb no matter what and Boras will say no, no matter what. ;-)
If Stubbs really has rebuilt his swing as ESPN has reported, it will be interesting for Indians.
What this guy said. Exactly what this guy said. What if Myers gets hurt again? What if Odorizzi's fastball doesn't get past anyone? Many unknowns for some pretty well knowns. This is very solid deal for Royals.
To add to above, Royals also have 2 solid starters coming back from injury. Santana is like Sanchez last season - a roll of the dice. Moore is determined not to run out of starters again.
Where is Dominic Brown? Has he fallen that far? Cause if he has, I'd like to trade for him. I thought the best thing he did was play CF. I'm only concerned because I've not seen him mentioned in any analysis of this deal.
Apparently Ned Yost attracts snark.
As a closet Royals fan, I have to say that dumping Chen would be a stupid idea. He's a useful starter and relatively cheap. Hochevar on the other hand, you may have for some tickets to Anna Karenina.
Dice-K should be considering Seattle, regardless of new dimensions. I'm liking the new rumor column Daniel, it's good work.
Mitch Albom is a popular writer and tv personality who makes his spending cash covering sports. Does anyone who knows anything about baseball care what he thinks?
I've been enjoying these very much Jason. Good work.
Hmmm. What if Johnson is cooked? What if Buehrle isn't more than a one win pitcher? What if Reyes misses half the season? I'm excited about this deal too, but Miami isn't stupid about talent. This was an ok deal for them.
It doesn't matter. No way Escobar plays for Maimi, he's going to AZ before the year is out.
Reminds me of post draft discussions of Mike Olt and how everyone(w KLaw also on hand) was thinking the Rangers just scored a coup on gut feeling alone. Then were proved right.
I think looking at situations where the hierarchy has broken down (closer implodes, stacked injuries) would be a good place to seek some answers. New closers almost always seem to appear and the frequency of success & failure in others new roles should be relatively apparent.
I certainly hope he does take it. It would be the perfect solution.
* grammatical errors included
I know that the term 'moneyball' is a flashpoint for sports writers to aim at boomers but what I find most funny is that it's used a label to cover what ever crap they want to write about. If there's ever a good example of moneyball, it's the Giants: top of the league homegrown pitching, a few high draft pick position players who are core stars, and a bunch of useful under-rated regulars. Plus a solid manager. I mean this is a description of the Bobby Cox Braves too. Moneyball is really just great starting pitching. It's just that that isn't a very sexy story.
He's won 5 bro.
The last time I saw him play he made 2 ridiculous errors and literally quit on the Twins. Gardy pulled him after that. It was remarkably unprofessional and made me think something was very wrong.
Well Nishioka didn't help the Orioles, the moronic GM of the Twins did.
This is such a jackass story. Very good work. You kick Gay Talese's ass!
You know, I'm gonna take anything Andy McPhail does or says with a big rock of salt. But I think the premise is true. In fact I'm coming around to the use the 1st round pick on a big bat and then draft pitchers and more pitchers. Best player is a good rule of thumb but best bat seems more effective over time.
Even if Lewis maxes out to 4 mil, that's well below his actual value. A bit cheap if you ask me and I like all the people involved.
It's an interesting meme tho. Maybe we(the media) are all taking it a bit too seriously. The dude swings for the fences if you watch him at all. And theres's nothing wrong with that.
Well, the Dbacks and Padres can actually pitch and play some respectable defense. Half the Dodgers rotation sucks and they still don't have a 3B and they aren't whomping on shitty East & Central teams.
Other than that, it's a complete mystery.
This makes me happy. Nice work Bradley ;-)
Yeah both NY teams do a lot of head shots. The Mets used to be worse but have backed off the last few years. Must have changed producers. I still think YES is one of the best broadcast teams though.
Jesus! I had a feeling something was going on. This is wonderful news.
A reason to care about the Astros now. Good luck with that AL West status ;-). We will miss you on BP, as is abundantly clear.
Position players usually return in 6-8 months from TJS, which puts him on for spring training. But more important is the change of scenery. Crawford needs exactly this.
Welcome to the salary cap era baseball. This is a full size basketball trade, just without the protected first round picks.
Ok my bad. I was thinking KG prospect list. Carry on.
I'm pretty sure Altuve is also not qualified for the new list as he's the starting 2nd baseman.
I'm wondering why no thought on moving Tim Beckham to second? If he doesn't have the arm for third, would second be the natural progression. I'm sure he won't hit enough to play outfield.
"I don't know what people ask about fucking Juan Pierre. Juan Pierre is third on the team in RBIs, and he's a fucking leadoff man. Thank you."
The man has(had) a point. If you're bitching about Pierre and your team is that bad you're complaining about the wrong thing.
Still awaiting word on Lawrie?
Don't worry. Snider to be traded next week.
Because Andrew Luck is a far better talent/bet in football than Appel is in baseball. Luck was a no brainer #1 both seasons and actually became slightly more valuable after staying the extra year.
To be honest, baseball was last sport not to have rookie/first year slotting. I don't think the slot values skew too low either. The way rosters are constructed, the value of position players that consistently play will now only go up. It's not as if this was a unilateral decision, the union agreed to this because it drives up the value of regulars because teams will spend most of what they can afford to spend.
And I agree that Appel stands a good chance of playing better next season and securing a higher slot. It's a totally reasonable response to the situation. He is/will be a Stanford grad you know.
I think that it's pretty clear the Cubs would like Vitters to play 3rd from Sept onwards. If he follows his normal trajectory, he'll hit .225 next year and then be decent going forward. Not that we are allowed to think like that.
Right because you could have gone further yourself with those numbers: a little over $3 a month divided by say 28 days of actual content. Each of those days averages 6.5 articles, which brings us to .02 per. I think you more than got your value buddy.
Those mid/late 90's Mariners were a b***h. I wonder how much of that was the Kingdome.
I think this is a perfectly appropriate response to the Smoak conundrum.
But the M's need to demote Smoak. It's that simple. Apparently teams aren't allowed to make trades of any consequence until late June, so maybe he starts to hit down there and you can get some value in a trade later. Teams find older players who blossom all the time. Players fail to develop with their current team all the time.
Thank you. Monday morning F'n made.
Yeah, the Shitehawk. We gots ourselves a new name.
I agree that Josh Hamilton is one doozy of a story if covered correctly. Would the Rays be as good as they are if he'd been clean? Would they be worse? I'm sure David Price would be pitching elsewhere.
Yeah, this is purely an ESPN story angle, even if well written. Around training camp time their will be rumors that Brett Farve is coming back, etc... .
You know last nites Ozz-fest with Bell reminded me of the game where Joe Torre tried to ruin J Broxton's career. Leaving him out there to heave until his arm falls off as punishment. Serious a-hole move. Florida GM needs to have chat about destroying investments with the Oz.
I was thinking the same thing about the wrist injury. Has Pujols'' check-swing rate diminished? Must he swing when he decides? Surely the league knows so if he does, which will change the pitches he sees.
But other than that, still a beautiful thing!
There is a curious symmetry between the doubles & triples in hitting stats. Might want to check that coding ;-).
731026 was first produced by Brandon Beachy?!?
Somehow I can't believe that. It seems like such a typical good day at work.
Yes sir, those red uni's kick butt over the stupid black & white and whatever trim jobs. Please, some sanity, keep them.
Yes. Plus plus column.
Funny Scout Finch reference.
Does anyone know what happened with Odorizzi? Seems like an awfully quick hook.
I'm late but points to Williams for being on point about allocation of resources for talent.
We once had some friends visiting from Sweden who wanted to see a real American baseball game. We took them to Yankee stadium and proceeded to watch one of the craziest games I've ever seen. Yanks fell behind by 7 in just a couple of innings but then turned it around and scored 11 or 12 and won going away. The crowd was boisterous about these events and the Swedes highly entertained, not believing that this wasn't a normal game. Randomness is baseball's greatest strength.
Nice work here! I think a lot more managers work this way than we may assume. And it kind of makes me like Johnson to hear him talk about it so openly. I wonder how many decisions could be made against the practice by opposing managers successfully?
I frickin' love this thing. Although it needs a clincher of some kind. Maybe there will be music of some kind.
I agree! Indians & Blue Jays top teams to bust a big move. Both have lots of things that could go good for them with no obvious weak spot.
I thought the same thing looking at these numbers somewhere else a few weeks ago. Connecting Reinsdorf with this cap system is just unavoidable.
The one thing I keep thinking about: What if a decent # of teams(say 5-10?) blow a cap number and a accrue a 1st round penalty? If those spots just disappear then the line gets moved forward and lessen the penalty. Of course I am imagining a wholesale revolt, but recent draft history says it could be a reasonable pattern.
I always felt Randy Bush was under-rated even if a little dated. His parents certainly knew what they were doing.
Slowly the Mets are passing the Dodgers as best train wreck. Just wait till they fall under .500 and attendance is significantly down. To be honest, I just wonder when Alderson will abandon ship.
Thanks Maury. I too find it very interesting but more to the point agree with your position. Just because the constituents don't seem to care doesn't mean you shouldn't cover it! That's just bad business in my book, editor types.
Yes, what the Tigers require is a 2B who can field and maybe a SS too. Let Delmon DH and you got a good thing. I like your attitude in here Steve. Too much braying & ninny-ing going on.
Scott Boras is the Barry Bonds of agents.
Even Oswalt knows they are acquiring Oswalt.
This piece is in a wonderful style. I will look at Minoso's numbers again too. I look forward to reading more.
Maybe Theo didn't know Hoyer was working on this. *wink* *wink*
Yeah, I keep forgetting Lurie is an artworld fiend. I'm rather impressed with the commission, Grooms isn't bad at all. At least he's not another anonymous corporate rip-off artist.
Right on! This is great. Like peanut butter & bananas.
I agree with you on all points. Unfortunately the Padres seem to have a lot of redundancy at first & left. But maybe they are building the position depth before Rizzo & Blanks get shipped to Chicago the NL?
I figured Sappelt would be coming, the Cubs need him as a 4th outfielder. Goodness knows Fonzi, Byrd & DeJesus could all be on the DL by June! And they could have an outfield of Johnson, Jackson & Sappelt. Which is worse really?
Does anyone else get the impression the Cubs are playing for Andrew Luck? If I didn't know there was a regime change, I'd have a strong feeling to kvetch about Hendry. As the least combustible bullpenner, I wish Marshall well. I'm sure we'll miss him.
Now, about those other dudes, who are they? Cause I'm feeling sorely had.
I think he will get both + strikeouts!
And so the whole Iwakuma exchange with Oakland last year? He really wanted that much more than the A's would play? I thought there was an understanding thru conversations here at BP that the A's had been blocking as much as bidding. Or was it considered acceptable gray area... .
Well, the pitching end of it for SD seems debatable. But I'm happy for the Reds. I've seen tons of Latos' starts and yes, he's a hothead, but I always thought it was a symptom of all the 2-1 scores. Last season in particular he seemed to freak every time he gave up 2 or more runs in an inning. I think he'll be a bit calmer on a team that can score him 4+ runs most starts.
Also nice to mention last years near misses. That had to provide some real impetus this time. I also agree that this Pujols contract actually looks kind of affordable.
This reminds me of when the Yankees hired Joe Torre. The world was going to end. And then it did. But seriously, a power vacuum in the Red Sox front office? Never heard of it. A power vacuum in the New England media? Hmmm.
Also, don't we need more colorful uniforms? The Marlins SHOULD have bold uniforms. I'm tired of being held hostage to Marketing Dept. ideas of what fans will buy.
I agree that the Phillies aren't probably thinking Beltran. I figure it's a darkhorse. I could see the Rangers biting on him if they don't go for a big price 1B. I think that contenders will get first shot at signing him.
This is a great follow-up KG. They actually sound like genuine people. It'd br fantastic if you could stay with this thru the eventual signing.
If you look at what teams are paying, they pay 4-5 per win. And that points to consistency on the private models. So it figures that we should follow that too.
I'm going to say that the Yanks aren't over a barrel. They don't have to give CC anything if he opts out. And that gives them an awful lot of freedom. It's not as if pitching doesn't exist. And CC just isn't all that. Let the suckers pay him 25per or more for 6+ years. The Yankees have more offense than they know what to do with, they can find all the pitchers they want. Covering Girardi's a** shouldn't be factored into this equation.
Having said the actual sensible thing, there's almost no way that happens. They are in the business of spending money, so they will. And if you have to spend money on free agent pitchers, then CC is the best short term investment. I seriously doubt there's any real weight to the long term angle except arguing over a seventh year.
Really good work Jay! Thank you.
Was it my old timey tv or did Fox ditch pitch trax last night? I thought the ump was squeezing the plate hard but didn't have that reference point. I thought the 1-0 pitch from Oliver to Descalso was a strike, just like he did. But then the Cards didn't get that same spot in the top of the next, so maybe we had consistency.
This is a great summary. I hadn't realized Josh was in AZ for 5 years. One quibble: Isn't well known that JByrnes didn't do the Eric Byrnes contract? That was supposed to be all on the owner. I know it's par for the course to put the blame on the GM but you should also note it in some form. Like an OMDB (Over My Dead Body) signing. "The Ugly" looks a little less ugly that way.
Draft order good! Can't wait, these make for good fall & winter days.
'Free Markets' if you will have no relationship whatsoever with the US Constitution except through some very prismatic glasses. Beer goggles even.
I agree that this is outstanding stuff here. And like CRP, you've grabbed the other bizarre result in Pena. I watch Pena all the time and he swings and misses at pitches right down the middle an enormous amount of the time. To the point where it's shocking to me when he hits a HR. On the other hand, he has great skill at fouling off Borderline pitches. Which is why he ends up where he is on the chart. That and the ability to just not swing half the time. Anyway, my point being that somewhere up there on the chart needs to be a sign saying This Way Leads to Madness.
Well, after having the visuals blocked by mlb.tv I'm ready for some illegal action. Please send directions... .
I think montana's experience is the result of what behemoth discusses. The A's are hardball with the stadium in order to try to force change. They are so enamored with the supposed corporate riches to be had in Santa Clara that they will screw everyone else. Build a nice bb only stadium and good things will come, not the other way around. It's not like Santa Clara rocks or anything. It's bleak in it's own way - miles & miles of it. The A's would be better off staying north & building something cool. Nobody complains about games at UC Berkeley. Something to think about.
One could argue that the character/makeup stuff serves as a temper on expectations for Harper. Since you can't say he has a big hole one place or another in his game.
That said, haters are everywhere.
I don't blame him for drafting Hultzen. Pitching is the path there, and they have young hitters in some abundance. What they need is a catcher.
2 out of 4 inarguably right. There are a lot of things nobody talks about in baseball and revenue-sharing is about number one. And Michael Lewis is a writer, not a reporter. He doesn't have to write the truth. He HAS TO tell a good story. So just like elcubano, Moneyball is probably about 50% true.
The players play to win. Management plays to maximize profits. Neither side can help itself. As long as a GM doesn't give his manager too many good players, but enough to look like a major league product, you can take your chances getting the revenue sharing dough.
To answer your question: the teams that BP loves to beat like dead horses, KC Royals(smartest GM around DaytonM), Florida Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles. If you just look at what happens instead of imposing a false system of athletic competition beyond the field, it's pretty clear who's in it for the money.
And of note for the revenue sharing being a failed leftist idea: this is called right wing bribery fool. Get your head straight. I'm paying you not to compete. If it happens elsewhere, why wouldn't it happen in baseball? Can't get more capitalistic than that. Plus, who would actually buy all these half-assed franchises if they weren't sure they'd get payed plus accrue value?
Thanks RJ. Who's team shall be cursed with Rowand? It's like a WWI mine floating free in the Atlantic.
It is disingenuous of you to not talk about his accrued value this season. B-R has him at 2.2 total war so far, making him an extreme bargain.
Yes, he is a stud of almost unspeakable proportion, but maybe BP undervalues that as well. Now that 'the plan' is bearing fruit, the lynch Dayton Moore stories have disappeared. I think this isn't so bad a move. It's not like he signed Melky to an extension.
I have to agree. The Angels could have gone after another starter. Other than that, they have the same team as was hitting well & winning before the Rangers buzz saw hit them. Carlos Pena was there but they wouldn't offer any players or pay any money for him. I think it's more of a case of not being able to compete with Texas straight up.
Even if you wouldn't think it.
I feel you hipster. I really feel you. But you're a lucky man, don't forget that. You should propose a bb radio show at Roberta's. There's a lot of sports fans there.
gong means going in this new world
I look forward to Jim Crane running the Astros into the ground. I'm afraid that Bud Selig's legacy is gong to be his process of ownership selection pointing towards corporate strip miners. Oh well. The only question is how many we end up with.
3 PTBNL!!!! Or cash. That's the part that kills me. Alex A is really winning me over. He's always upgrading.
My gut reaction was that he missed him too. And then I felt ill. Which means I wanted Lugo called out because the catcher messed it up so badly. But McKenry's glove never deforms in any way and that is pretty damning.
The really funny thing about Kasem's remark being that U2 are from Eire.
Could the Rays get Alonso & Grandal for Shields? Is that crazy? Considering the Reds are in 4th place. The Rays could send an outfielder of some worth I suppose. I can't get a feel for where prospect bias ends and reality begins with this match-up.
Would Lavarnway be a candidate for first base?
That's because the Pirates STOLE THEIR MOJO! That would be the Royals' Melky Cabrera.
Wow, that was Alex Torres' big league debut? Brutal of Maddon to put him in that spot. And to then demote him might well qualify as f'ing with his head.
Better defense would be reason 2, of course.
Good article JP. You know Karstens isn't the only guy having a season for Pittsburgh. I've been wondering where the stories in the pitching coach are? When a mediocre staff suddenly starts winning like this, a new pitching coach is reason 1.
Are people really just now realizing there's a serious disconnect between LaRussa & Rasmus?! This is the 2nd season in a row. TLR will always cut off his nose to spite his face with a player he doesn't like, he's done it every stop he's been. There's plenty of solid players they can get in return for him and they need to do something about that pitching staff.
Oh, well that's different. Thanks for the heads up.
Isn't the key to the option the 3rd clause, of which I had not heard before: Team doctors give him a clean bill of health after the 2011 season. Unless he hurts his arm that's going to be tough to beat. I think he's staying.
Yes, of course KRod is #2 guy out of the pen. But the other thing is that Melvin has a history of overpaying closers on one year deals. Going forward, the Brewers don't care about the unavoidable option and have KRod for next season. Where he becomes an asset to be sold to the 'losers' of closerpalooza this off season.
And that all presupposes that the Brewers don't resign Fielder. Which they just might.
I think that tomorrow or so, Steve will realize it was just the PECOTA talkin'.
That said, his bat is mighty slow. I keep thinking that in a year or two it will catch up with his ability. Cause I like watching him catch and he's a legit first rounder in action. He just might have more ability than experience still.
Yes, but if this goes thru the courts and then to the banks who hold the loans, Selig will have little chance turning down the highest bid. Which would be a wonderful and legitimate turn of events. Nice article Jay.
I think the point being Carmona is a fixer upper. Getting his head on straight has been a constant complaint about Carmona. A good reporter would suppose this was a perfect project for Dave Duncan?
He resigns over that?!? There's got to be more to it... . Maybe they promised him something or are blaming him for their right fielder problem.
Can you please keep your pro-oxpecker politics out of this baseball conversation!?
Hah! Bud deserves this.
I'd say the openly stated avoidance of small pitchers by most teams would be a clear market inefficiency. Especially if there is no data to prove that larger pitchers are healthier or worth more except in a speculative way (ie, trade value).
This was just a really really fun read. I look forward to the rest of the series. Thanks Jason.
Yeah, I think it's bankable that super2ness will go away. So it's transparently cheap to not bring guys up at this point. Especially when you have a better than slim chance to contend.
Also, if Andrus actually were to say "effectuating positive change on the mental side of the game", he would instantly become my favorite player.
I have to agree. There's a nice balance to the format and solid info. Cheers JP.
I think it's implied that it's the latter. But I highly doubt people outside the Atlanta front office know the real deal on his injury. I would suspect that Heyward has the option of having surgery. And the team isn't feeling that.
Does Ryan Doumit actually qualify as a catcher? I don't think the Giants will be looking there. Plus they don't have a lot to trade.
Josh Vitters > Mark Reynolds?
I've just finished reading the Wilpon article and I must say that nothing he says about Mets players is untrue. Something about the sports world and it's enormous media pile makes remarks that are absolutely normal in any other field a big deal there. Maybe he's stretching to say that Reyes wants Crawford money, but no one is there to say his agent hasn't dropped such a hint. And, he(Reyes) won't be far off it when all is said & done I'd bet.
To wander off topic just a bit, the article was also a very well placed explanation. Wilpon would never have talked to one of the papers in NY. But an article that gives his timeline in The New Yorker is perfect. Maybe Toobin is the person that got played here, just that it's not visible thru the lens of sports reporting. It is probably good that the Mets have sold part of the club. Wilpon's style may be falling behind the times for baseball, but he's not that bad of an owner. There are plenty worse.
Must Seattle rush Ackley!? I'm not invoking the super 2 argument, I just wish they'd let him have a solid half season before raising the bar again. He can't be behind the development curve yet, he's in AAA.
The MLBPA cares because the players in question become their constituency. And they share agents & endorsements with the same people. And the draft is good for everyone involved, no matter how retrograde the thinking is in the commish's office.
At least now I don't have to switch to another game when Mateo would come in.
And now Wright has a stress fracture!? So much for that idea. Mets may need to pull a KC and just suck for a year or 2. Gather some prospects and come back hard. They have enough young guys that it could work.
One thing that needs to be said: Ken Rosenthal blows hard! Really really hard. He & his 'intrepid' speculating, sorry I mean reporting ruined the broadcast Saturday night. Was it really such a risk of boredom that Fox had to spend half the game wondering about Posada? Did anyone report the very public 'face' Posada got the other night when the bases were walked loaded in order to pitch to him with 2 out? And that he failed miserably? I think that had as much to do with setting up this scenario as anything. Yes, Cashman threw gas on, but it surely is his getting back at his employers for forcing the contract on him.
There is abundant anecdotal evidence that Cashman isn't making these crazy signings on his own. And I really think he doesn't want to be around in a year to repeat this whole thing again with Jeter. Personally, I would look forward to my favorite team signing his as GM very soon.
At what point will the Mets be able to address re-signing Reyes? I just have no feel whatsoever for management. Are they even considering it as a doable?
You bring up a good point tho about Wright. I wonder what kind of return they could get for him. He certainly reeks of someone who'd love to leave that stadium. Others just seem much happier.
As much as we all respect KG, I think this article is a little disingenuous. Worrying about this now is crazy. We have no idea what things will look like in 3 years. And bringing all your guys up at the same time does not sound like a good idea. Hosmer needs to be the star now and let the other guys follow him up. Baseball people are always talking about too many rookies mess up the cake and while we here at BP blow that stuff off, it's a good rule of thumb.
Also, text messages from scouts aren't facts. Though funny and convincing, those are no more credible than any other speculation. Particularly speculation about a Boras client. There will be a strong inclination to keep this team together if it is successful. And the fan base has already signaled that they are ready to support it. Things will play out, but it is wrong to think Hosmer will bolt the second he can.
I guess that's a bit of a told-ya-so with Hayden Simpson. This guy has star-crossed written all over him.
Wake & Bake. Nice one.
James' analysis has disappeared accept for the branded books that come out annually that are fun to read but don't give a lot. The Red Sox hiring of James was a coup on many levels.
At least last night, Fairchild was having a tough time with the down & in on righties. Although if you read that article about B & S calls by umps, those were undoubtedly pitches to left handed batters as outside pitches to lefties have by far the greatest deviation.
I don't know, but I kind of like Derek Lowe more now.
I think that should be rational and irrational. I'm pretty sure rational people want credit for having emotions. And on the topic of rational emotion, maybe JWerth was worried that his power would be usurped by a much bigger personality. Funny he was counting windsprints don't you think? And that he wasn't interested in giving Nyger credit for being there working out while he (Werth) was in bed.
Oh, ok. Yikes. The best interest of baseball at it's finest. Thank you Jeff & Cooper.
Well, regarding Purke's mulling of the Rangers offer, I would think he & his team would have gotten some kind of heads up about time restraints. He could have taken the offer when it was submitted. Just sayin'. But it's too bad about his being shut down. I figure you(Kevin) have been waiting for this as it seemed to be between the lines that something must be wrong.
Yes, thank you. This has explained a lot. I look forward to the other articles.
So a question about Jesus Montero: could the team trading for him feel confident about putting him at first base? Or is it hopeless?
I'd like to see if the Detroit market has actually shrunk at all. The city of Detroit itself has lost population, but the surrounding townships have all grown. Detroit gets negative publicity as a cliche, not out of fact. Some closer inspection is in order to understand the money loss - as you point out, they tend to overpay mediocre players as just one example of management issue.
This many comments this early means bad news. Sort of bad news. But since ESPN is in dire need of help, particularly since Neyer left, this is good news. I noticed Sweet Spot had taken on some improvements and this has restored my faith. The best part is that millions of people will now be reading one of the great voices in baseball.
Plus the RJ guy isn't too bad either. ;-)
"Please sir, could I have some more Royals prospects pudding?"
Yes. Then the Brewers would have room to sign Silva.
I know it's a 'bash Carlos Silva' media moment, but just a year ago it was the complete opposite. Sure he has been pressing all Spring, but he's being run out of town on a rail. He will sign somewhere and pitch just ok and then break down. That's what he does and that's what BP's resources are all about proving.
Having said that, what if he's telling the truth? Most readers here know enough about plausible deniability to know it when they see it, and that's just what Hendry & crew have. Silva has the right to be frustrated if he was just an insurance policy. So what if he shot his mouth off? He'll have a job next week.
I'm hoping for a fast learning curve for Quade. I think the underlying theme is to let the kids get some AB's/IP's down in Iowa for a while and then start shedding the superfluous vets like Johnson.
ONegame: I too was hoping for Perez but he's looked bad this spring. Maybe he gets it straightened out. I mean there is no chance Byrd stays healthy, so he'll get a chance.
Good one JP. Lots to chew on. I have a feeling Mazzaro gives KC some good innings this year.
Can you just become the Cubs beat writer?
Would it be so horrible to have Michael Young be the second baseman? If the Cubs win the division and he walks and talks like a big leaguer it's justified no? Cause really, Scales & Baker at 2nd? That's a last place team type choice.
Hah! Yeah Jason Donald at third has been tickling me for a while. Thanks for the write up CK. Is FPerez holding it down as the backup center then? I have high hopes for seeing him this summer when Byrd gets hurt or stiff or whatever.
Boy, this will be one big Selig bash in no time. But I agree that his handling of transfer of ownership is about as old school & deplorable as it gets. But then maybe he's (or baseball in general) just a mirror of how our society works. Anything to make a buck, but only the boys in the club get to play owner. Nice article again Ms. Span.
Love it when you go to games CK. Is there a Cashner report coming soon? There are rumors he will win the 5th starter job.
Keeping on the general topic, can we discuss moving Utley to third now? He is only going to fall apart faster and faster while at 2nd.
But apparently no sunshine for the Riot. Unless you are considering him a fixed asset. ;-)
This is a composite of all possible effects. If Longoria misses time or gets hurt and keeps playing, yes his numbers could easily look like that. Wainwright anybody?
I fully agree! That they would do all this so publicly is absurd. Is this some upper midwest thing? They had 'problems' with Garza too but cut bait and after looking bad for a year look to be coming out even. They should shut their mouths and let him pitch for a while, then trade him for an mlb position player.
So regarding Montero: is this just all Tex? If he wasn't locked in for the next 20 years, Montero would be at first right? And maybe starting this year?
As long as we're counting votes: 2 thumbs up Emma. Really interesting stuff.
Nice to see the whole community out (on both sides).
Yes I had to drive to the furthest south BART station but it wasn't bad compared to commuting.
I agree. Just build a new stadium in Oaktown. People are moving back there anyway and it actually has functional mass transit from the southbay. I used to go from San Jose to the Coliseum by BART several times a season. It was easy and you didn't drive. Just like the way people go to the NYC stadiums.
Not even sell in my opinion. If no money changed hands in the first place, then it should be reversed to serve exactly the same purpose.
I'm glad you posted this CK. It is too bad the 2 cases are thusly related. I, for one, have sympathy for them.
Pessimistic indeed! Outside of his fantastic 2009, Grienke isn't the greatest thing in the world yet everyone is very confidant he'll lead the Brewers to victory. I know you need to take a position, but stuff wise Garza is far more attractive than the other pitchers named. Maybe we should look at trades based on who was after the player in question. If contenders are trying to get someone, does that qualify them as better? Look, the Cubs sold high and the Rays sold low. Garza needed to get out of there just like Grienke needed out of KC.
I think the real Oaktown narrative has been 'trying to win without paying for power.' Since emphasizing speed & defense is the nice way of saying we have no (affordable)power hitters. When viewed from this perspective, the A's make much more sense.
Would teams do challenge trades of such players or are they still too volatile? Half these guys seem to really need a change of scenery. Lars Anderson for Josh Vitters? Aaron Crow for Fernando Martinez?
So great to have one of these to read today. I have 2questions coming away tho: First, isn't the Marlins system exactly what it should be at the moment? Having graduated a 2B, LF, RF & 1B? And second, I'm counting Coughlan as the 2B. Doesn't it seem that's where he will be if Cousins can hit at all? In that regard, I don't listen to what comes out of the mouths of the front office, I consider them fairly shrewd at obfuscation.
Some people take predictions so hard! I can't wait to read the annual. It's my favorite book of the winter.
Good piece again. I was wondering if the Duke is healthy yet? Or is a rehab involved in signing him(beyond expected injury)?
Yes, it's time for a bit of sabermetric style Wikileaks. That would make for a month of scramble.
Nice one Christina. But I really think you underestimate the love the Reds hold for young Mr. Janish. I think this is a 'the kid stays in the movie' situation.
I agree with T. Keifer. There was a media groundswell for Hamilton. The timing of his injury only helped his case since he was red hot going into it and the team didn't need him to win the division. The sale of the team also helped to make the Rangers a sympathetic underdog bunch. If your a writer who wants to back a winner, Hamilton's your man whether he wins or not. Was Cabrera as good or better? Of course he was. He was in a far more difficult situation and was punished for his injury and his team's sag. Nobody votes for baggage that soon. If he does it again next year he'll get the votes. It's how the media works. The table is set if Hamilton falls off the wagon tho. Boy oh boy is it.
Happy Thanksgiving BP! And thank you.
Thanks Bob! This is one of the guys I really wish I could've seen play. Is there regular season video of him out there? Maybe when WGN did the White Sox? I too believe he should be in the HOF.
I should also say: Good job Colin, these are very interesting. I can't believe the Jose Lopez numbers at 3rd!
Why is Keppinger listed at 2nd base? He has 600 less chances than Phillips, who definitely did not play other positions. Kep should be listed at short if a catch-all is needed.
I'm pretty sure he'll get a big league deal. It's just the Pirates that have to pay the price of cutting him.
I don't think we need a do over CRP, cause your doing it yourself ;-).
So my question is, is Wallace just not workable at third? Making room for Lee at first? I thought Lee played well enough at first to warrant another look. I know it was supposed to be for shopping purposes, but I'm under the impression he just had a bad year in 2010. I expect him to hit far better next season. And without him, the Astros just have no lineup.
You need to think about what your original post reads like my friend. I have a sincere regard for the style and success of Mr. Weaver. That victory by the Pirates, which they solidly earned, brought joy to a great many people. For the same reasons you call them 'certifiably obnoxious.'
I think you all need to lay off Bob. These articles are good clean fun. It's hard to not sound snarky about it, but really. Your kind of proving Will's point aren't you? I mean, are you really trying to say that the Pirates are the only team to reach post-season and do drugs? The "quietly confident" Orioles? Who were managed by a serious horses' ass. Get a grip people.
I don't see the Braves ponying up for Fielder regardless. They have that kid but he may still be a year away. IF they think Jurrjens is an accident waiting to happen I can see them going for a year of Fielder. But I'd be very wary if I was Melvin and Atl jumped at such a proposition. The Giants might be a better target but I figure most teams will want to negotiate with Fielder before making a good offer and that will drag shiv out for months.
I get the feeling that Selig said almost exactly that 'off the record' and the reporter went with it when he was supposed to use the other quote. That Selig would say either thing to a reporter seems specious enough. Considering that they are planning on punishing agents who 'negotiate' thru the media. But if he's going to push that hard, things must be really really bad in the Mets front office. I've never heard him say such a thing. The Mets 'hired' Minaya and Selig doesn't have to take responsibility for him like he did when he ran the Expos.
Thanks for the wrap-up. I think most of this stuff sounds good for breaking the signing logjam but I have some questions:
What is the penalty for discussing negotiations in the media(at least in theory)? Will this have any impact at all or is it just a Boras rule? I assume we will just see anonymous quotes (like from 'scouts') then. Will any of these changes cause teams to change the way they respond to type A fa's? I would have thought that would have been the #1 point of negotiation by the mlbpa.
Nice work CK, it's good to have you back regular like. I've long seen those 15-2 games against the Browns as an achilles heel for sluggers of the 30's & 40's.
But you've got me thinking about comparisons not so much on a purely statistical edge. What if, the increasing size of bullpens and diminishing innings of starters is a response to technology. The growth in the use of video and subsequent technology coincides with the expansion of bullpen usage to a fair degree. This also coincides with the general elimination of terrible teams: the rise of parity. Suddenly going 27 outs is far more taxing against a better prepared opponent and match-up play is the smart way to go. A small point for Albert on that.
Unless an awful lot of options get picked up, I don't think it's so thin a free agent market. Teams are much more efficient at keeping the players they want. This years group is better than the last 2 at least and should be considered relatively good going forward. Free Agency has been reduced in it's ability to impact roster building. That said, there's plenty for Houston to look at.
Yes, good title but maybe not great.
All the thoughts you are describing means your very close and you're being honest. Which you should be proud of. There is electricity in your first person point of view that is different from many, so don't sweat it too much.
You were one of my fav cartoon characters and now I like you even more! It was pretty sad to NOT see Rasmus in a nationally televised game against the team they MUST beat.
Late here too, but Leuke has a one time offense as well. Lying to the police isn't a second count. It was a stupid stupid thing to do, but it isn't worse than any number of other incidents. I got the impression that Baker had the right tone in his coverage and people just hate the sound of it. Heck, ESPN magazine has a big story about a lineman who was jailed for a sexual crime who deserves a chance too.
That said, I hope the M's release him. Then he can go somewhere else and get another chance. The people jealous and judging of athletes just need to get their fix. People seem to forget that lessons are sometimes hard learned. If he does jail time then so be it, but he cannot be robbed of his profession.
Hi KG. Good article again. But speaking of 'fixing' the draft, I'm surprised you haven't written anything about Loux being given FA status. I'd be interested in your anticipatory take on what will happen. I assume you think the right thing happened.
Right on KG. You can do a special bit on who signed on the dotted line by midnite. Cool opportunity.
Yes, these are all valid thoughts that existed at the time. But I still believe that Bonds was 'persona non grata' in the MLB offices and that was certainly open knowledge. That no team would go against this isn't surprising. I also believe Bonds wanted 9-10 mil per and that was too big a risk when combined with the whetted appetite of the media. The promised circus was just too great. A team would have had to close the clubhouse practically and that would have been it's own s**tstorm. Too many negatives attached I'm afraid.
Well Cliff Lee actually did the thing last year in the post season and it didn't really calculate out to luck. And he's been doing the same so far this season.
But yeah, it's just July and he sure could break between now and then. And Smoak could catch on too. This deal smells pretty fair as far as I'm concerned and I think JackZ was right to pass on Montero too. He doesn't fit into anyone's plans at the top level if he can't play catcher or 1st.
In the sense that they were getting a return of 10-12% annually. But when you think you 300m and you don't... that can count as a loss.
I don't know this is a bad thing. I thought the 'miserly Nutting...' thing was new but John hasn't been too hard on the Pirates. They have been bad for a very long time and everyone here knows the generalities about why. Throwing a skeptical eye on 'secret' extensions qualifies as actual news about the franchise since it's a bit out of the ordinary. God knows there are the same problems in KC and Clev and we wouldn't question how we got to know the same facts(?) about them. Personally, I want John reporting on the Pirates.
Is there a service time issue w/Gordon? You may not be the right person to ask but those AL Central teams seem to be sticklers about this stuff. That, or they aren't going to trade him and want to max out the guys on the 25 for trade value (ha ha!) and then bring him & Killer together.
Re: Oswalt & Berkman to Yanks rumor. I shudder at the thought of such happenings. What exactly would the Yankees give the Astros, considering the Houston management? To the joy of many it would surely be enough to kneecap the NY minors for several years. But I just don't think the Yankees are that stupid and I don't think Houston will settle for Swisher and a pitcher. Nonetheless I thank you for the provocation.
You've been in fine form all day today Christina. I too have fond memories of that early 90's M's crew. And for all the doubters: Junior was the #%&*.
Glad your back with these, they are a joy to read. Perspective comes in all shapes and sizes. Hang in there, your constant attention will make things alright.
I agree with NYYanks... . I love reading these. You've made me want to check out the stadium next time I have a chance.
I think you've gotten your money back now. That was sweet.
I guess we just figured Connie Mack would manage until he died? He was the owner and manager as well as GM of the Philly A's right? And this lasted into the 30's.
I'm late, but I must say that most people care about what an apology looks like. Maybe someone like "superduperstar A" almost has to have an elaborate platform, but sincerity is almost impossible to mistake. Woods apologized because he was about to lose over half his income. He's a philanderer. He's done nothing illegal. He doesn't owe anyone but his family and friends(maybe) an apology. Our media likes to pretend he owes the public something.
But his sponsors have to please millions of people of all stripes and think a public apology will speed that. Personally I think only time will do it.
Tiers are great. It's a projection. If someone is so risk averse that they can't choose within a tier, they need another system for themselves. Like darts. It's a game and these are projections.
Well Will, I just want to say that I saw a link to the Post story and went and saw the pic and thought he'd been working out because those walls are so very far away. Not until I read this did I think HGH.
So maybe it's just your vacuum dude. I don't really care about PED's either way. But I certainly didn't think of them this morning.
Neyer writes about 'home region' stuff annually because it's voted on at every summer Owners Meetings. Once we reach some threshold they will reduce them in size. I live 4 hours from NYC and still get the Mets & Yanks blocked. But it's been a blessing as well, causing me to watch many other teams and develop some fav announcers.
Considering that I watch it almost every day during the season, I consider it cheap beyond words. And with subscribership going up so rapidly, I'm pretty sure they will be offering big improvements with all forms of interface. Maybe even customer service.
The thing is, I appreciate what SIERA does and it's improvements. But when going thru my newly arrived(!!!!) Prospectus, there is no leader boards for the new stats. And so it's going to be a slow adaptation, instead of being able to say that a 3.13 SIERA is damn good right out of the chute. And it's that kind of user friendly presentation that seems to be missing in some crucial instances. And that's in the editorial ergonomics dept.
Thank goodness there's someone else here! I make a living doing Apple related things and use almost all their products. Almost everyone I know uses pc's and they live in a hell I can't believe I avoided. I have guarded hopes for the iPad. I assume it will be less than it could be here with the first gen, but in a year or 2 will be the new standard. And considering the absolute lack of ancillary costs accrued by Apple users, these products are the best value to be had.
And if anyone is still reading this ;-), I have been a BP reader on and off for many years. I agree that the granularity, while not a lot in the articles generally, is still enough to run most baseball fans I know off immediately. I find myself contextualizing BP stuff in conversation constantly and around half the time people just plain "don't believe it"? Example: the Red Sox center fielder is the only one playing hard because he's the only one who dives for balls, instead of the only one that far out of position. This is the sportswriter conundrum isn't it? Why move to advanced ideas when your readers have almost zero interest? And I read the articles and offer occasional 'grounded' opinion to offer bias antidote and am usually shouted down. But I figure it enriches the experience and I've done my part, just like we all say we want the bigger voices out there to do. So my conclusion is that the cross-over articles on ESPN are a great start and it's just as much on us to spread the word. Trial memberships might be a good thing too.
Written on my MacBook Air!
MIM's: Middle Inning Munchers
There. Now they have an acronym. And I'll make sure to have my legal team revert all rights to you and the BP Team.
On another note, Pridie to the Mets is kind of interesting, no?
MLB could do something like putting the funds in escrow. With the specific uses of the cash clearly defined and the releasing of amounts only for qualifying expenditures. For those of you looking for that kind of oversight.
Is Oakland that low? I wonder what the performance record is on these mercenary type deals? I think Garland's deal is something else though. I think it just makes SD better.
Not to be too disagreeable, but I highly doubt Dayton Moore is an idiot. There's method there. I just don't see where the edges are. Draft position? I'm not a KC fan in the least, but I think they are the most fascinating case study in MLB.
Also, obviously, I really enjoyed this article Shawn ;-) .
Agreed. Wonderful job. Those Tigers contracts really do look like irrational exuberance, don't they?
Oops. So I read this before I read Jeff's thing. So maybe that doesn't answer the Royals behavioral questions.
So you've got me wondering now. I have read the arguments against spending money on established veterans when your a team that is in no condition to contend, but isn't that expressly against the rules? Like say the Royals signing Meche and Guillen to those contracts. They were the only guys on the team making any real money and without them the Royals were conspicuously under the invisible line. Of course this happened before the big breakdown, but how much influence do we think there was to spend some money? Were the Royals being pressured to get the payroll over 30 mil or whatever? Because that would be a big no no to write about in print. This thinking could go a lot farther but I'd like to start here.
And as a side note, is this the Dayton Moore conundrum? Does he HAVE TO SPEND 40 mil to keep out of the line of fire? And so signing Kyle Farnsworth et al accomplishes that. Yuni Betancourt keeps the union off his ass? That would go a long way for explaining things to me.
Well, I'm no Winn fan, but until last season he wasn't bad at all. I'd look at his manager and maybe some minor injuries before writing him off. Damon is a DH. His defense last year was a joke and that's why he's not getting a contract offer to his liking.
Agreed! Medich rocks and stays in the theme of 70's refs. Which signals that BP has been doing this kind of thinking for a looonnnggg time.
Hey man! Your stealing my ideas! I'm honored you'd pursue my comment even if I'm proved half wrong.
On this point tho, I think the Dodgers would have received a 1st supplemental and the Brewers 2nd. And I hadn't either thought about a top 15 being willing to sign Wolf. I like to think that the Dodgers weren't on 'operation wallet shut' and instead thought about Wolf's elbow and said no to multiple years.
But I also believe that they shut Hudson out after he didn't take his banishment lying down. Which was kind of a dumb idea since they haven't replaced him in a substantive manner.
I disagree with the idea that Hudson wouldn't have accepted arbitration. He most likely would have and would be due a raise. And would Wolf really be off the market right now were he not free? I don't think we can say that either. I think Collett is rather more justified with a little hindsight. The Dodgers can do better than those 2 for a lot less.
Thanks Steve. Indeed another great article.
I kind of can't believe the moralizing that this type of discussion always gets started. Anyone who didn't know about steroids 20 years ago is... I don't know. My own mother was complaining in the early 90's about Canseco & McGwire. Come on people. Why not complain about the ball in the early 30's? Does Hack Wilson's record seem tainted? Sure has stood a long time. No one seems to care that Maris hit 61 in 162 game schedule anymore. Or that it was the first expansion season in how long and pitching was, by standards, diluted. I know it drives people crazy, but Rob Neyer is right: record books RECORD what happened. Only.
And if your really worried about steroids, then don't buy factory farmed beef/pork/chicken. Or take them when prescribed by your doctor. But don't pretend that this was a group of 'bad apples'. That's the worst kind of self deception.
I also thinks there's an arms race with Chicago. The White Sox are going to have very good pitching this year and pitching will decide the Central. Detroit needed a closer (if you believe in that sort of thing) to compete.
Oh I don't know about that. I think Botox qualifies as a PED in Costas' line of work.
Yes! I give Hendry one year and that's it. They're gonna let it roll and see what happens. The Cubs should improve next year. But they might need a total management overhaul regardless.
I would like to weigh in in favor of Kosuke. He almost earned his salary last season and seems to be adapting to US style. He reminds me a bit of 'Godzilla' in his development, with much better D and a lot less homers.
I love the rapidity of updates CK, although your taxing your editor a bit. Do you think Chin-Lung Hu is now available? I got the impression the Dodgers were still hot for him last year and I can think of half a dozen teams that could give him a shot.
Agreed, love to read this stuff. Can we have some mo' please?
LaRoche couldn't have flat turned down such an offer. Something's missing here. I have a feeling someone's painting him in this light as part of negotiations. Too bad about Hudson, I'm getting tired of this type A crap. Lost free agents of A & B should be compensated with supplemental 1st & 2nd round picks and leave it at that(a thought for the next CBA).
This marriage makes me very happy!
I have to say that aside from the injury history, I have no problems with the O's signing Gonzalez. Talking about flipping him at midseason reminds me of us saying the same thing about Dunn & the Nationals a year ago. I don't think that's the point in any way shape or form. Gonzalez makes the Orioles much better if he can actually be an effective closer. They are getting better faster than one might think and marginal wins are similar to them as to the Yanks. I know your laughing now, but I would say that they value them similarly because they compete for the same ones. Having a good bullpen is the best thing for developing a young rotation. Taking risks with unknown commodities isn't going to help the O's get the staff they want together.
BP staff, who all seem to be on board for the big announcements:
This is great news! I find it all very exciting as I have felt for a while now that BP was losing it's edge on the competition, at least a bit. Becoming an even more rounded enterprise is the right path. Not to compare to loathsome big box stores, but one stop shopping is the way to go. I look forward to seeing it come on line.
As for Joe, it's his time to move on. I will miss his antidote nature as well, but surely he will appear elsewhere and still be our friend. I wish him the best and hope to read him in the highest profile locations possible.
Change is good. ;-)
Nobody thinks that really. I think he started the season because Coghlan wasn't ready and then he hit for two weeks. But after that I always suspected that if he ever started to hit again the Marlins were going to try to flip him. I mean Pittsburgh traded for him in the first place, so he's on the radar of the bottom feeding salary teams and there's always someone who will think they need him. But I agree, Coghlan really should be at 2nd starting in spring training.
Oh really. I'd say the Yankees are dumping salary left & right. Not resigning any free agents except Pettitte? No money for Damon?! And Matsui the WS hero?! This is the same thing. The Yankees are cutting their obligations all over the place. No Bay or Holliday in pinstripes. These things are relatively unheard of. If you read this website, one year of Vazquez is routinely referred to as a smart play, not the 'too much money' move portrayed in these posts here.
I also disagree that the Padres would want corporate ownership. So they have one sucky season where the dump all the dead wood. Could have got more for Peavy maybe. But they are looking much much better now than they did 18 months ago. And they still play in the NL West, which is looking perversely risk averse and actually gives them a fighting chance to contend.
Management always determines company performance. Throwing money at the wall never works. So accusing NY of winning because they have a lot of money just isn't true. Management of assets is how this all works. Now if you want to say that KC has a plan and is executing it, then I will agree with you. The same way congressmen know exactly what the people who actually vote for them want, teams look at their fan base. There is an obvious logic to what KC does. They just aren't concerned with what the people who populate this site think. Not even to their cost. They are putting a Major League team on the field while they develop their own pitching. It's that simple. My extended family live in the Pacific NW and are baseball fans and even attend games. They though YBetancourt was just fine as a SS. "A real major leager. Too bad he's always in a slump stuff." And that's what they sell in KC. And they make their money and if you don't like it, too bad. But if they had double the revenue they'd still act that way and only a fool would think otherwise.
Which is why you need ownership interested in winning.
I tend to agree with you. Who says Vazquez doesn't melt down again? And it's just for one year, regardless of type A or B status in a year. I think the Yanks paid a bit more than maybe they could have. And the Braves don't have a first baseman at the moment either. Got to pay somebody. Or move Chipper to 1st and look hard at Beltre. We should wait a bit on this one I think. Wren hasn't lit the world on fire but he doesn't seem to be a fool regardless of the Soriano trade. Think of that thing as if they moved him before they had to offer him arbitration and you don't have such a bad taste in your mouth. The result is the same. I don't think the Braves sell less tix because Soriano accepted arbitration and then got dumped.
I mean publicly funded for the Twins that is.
Selig is afraid of those type guys because they believe in free markets. Not 'free markets' as we hear about so much, where the few control the many. More owners that want to win means a less stable wall when they need to stand up to the players or negotiate anything. Like publicly funded stadiums. Someone like Mark Cuban would do something like pay for his own maybe and 'f' it up for the rest of them. The Twins even got their stadium with the riches of their owner... .
Exactly. Considering the rest of what Will writes, he's there because he represents the owners point of view, nothing more. I'd say were going to get, if anything, a little bit of negotiating preview with their findings. Shadow puppets to wave in order to win the public side of the argument if there is one.
I agree. AZ doesn't have the greatest history in deal making, but they know something we don't. I'm not a fan of either Scherzer or Schlereth, so I'm not so bothered with their movement. And maybe Ian Kennedy will survive now that he's not getting eaten alive by Boston & Tampa. I'm taking a flyer on this one till at least the all-star break. I also think Granderson will hit the sh*t out of the ball in Yankee Stadium and that's the real motivation here. He could be good for 30 hr.
RE: Seattle. This IS a great time for them to be aggressive. The Angels are looking to regress one way or another and I don't think Tex is nearly ready to take the division. And Seattle drew well when they were great, so maybe JBay is worth the investment. Keep the DH slot fluid and put Branyan back at first. Sure it's a magnet for lefty pitching, but there's just not that many decent starters to offset the damage that offense could do. Playing 10-15% more home day games would help the offense a ton as well. Any thoughts?
Well. Sheez. The DeRosa deal felt & looked like this didn't it? Crosby's a free agent too. Just the kind of guy we need to mentor our young shortstop!
It depends on the crowd you hang out with really.
I'm late in reading this, good work Jay. I agree with your interpretation of the sentiments at play. I've always considered a trip to the stadium like going to a crazy loud irreverent bar and living in the moment. Things happen and they don't necessarily sound so great later or to people who weren't there, but they are generally appropriate to the moment. People tend to think Yankee fans don't appreciate great players or stories and I've found that nothing could be further from the truth. Just don't expect anyone to bow down and it will all be good.
I have to chime in as well. Kudos to JoeG for doing something weird. BP has a chance of falling into it's own 'book' and dismissing anything that doesn't jive with the numbers as crazy. Nobody seemed to take back their position when Jeff Mathis was the Angels best hitter in the ALCS. He shouldn't have recieved a single at bat was the wisdom. But that isn't how the world works, nor should it. Root for Molina & Hairston Jr. But don't act like the WS is going to shift because they play. This isn't basketball.
And just to add a little small market thought. What if Cleveland had just fired Wedge 2 years ago instead of trading CC & Lee & Martinez? Who says they wouldn't have won the central? And made much more money? And been able to afford those 2 pitchers? Talent costs money and it's what wins post season games.
And Cano and Cabrera and Hughes and Chamberlain and Gardner and Coke and Aceves and Wang and Cervelli are all home grown and cheap. And if you do it that way instead of wasting your money on crap, you can afford to buy expensive. Cost of living in NYC is more expensive. Go work there. You'll make 25% more and spend just as much more. And if the fan base of a team doesn't really care about winning, then the management won't either. Boston beats NY half the time and they do the same thing, just this year they got caught on their contracts. And truth be told, Phillie is equal to NY in talent for much much less money.
Wonderful article. Reminds me of the old saw about one extra hit a week is the difference between a great hitter and an average one.
I like your point. But Towers will be expensive and no matter what the media says, the Mets don't have money like that. Especially now that Minaya will be on a very short leash. But I must say that he has a lot of friends. People seem to think he has a job for life as long as Bud is commish.
Definitely. The Twins pen could protect 2 leads in 5 games.
I thought Posada wasn't starting this game? Or is that Burnett's start?
LOL... I'd say that if Omar Minaya values his job he will NOT be hiring Towers & Ricciardi as special assistants.
Even more interesting is the very high percentage that we will be watching game 163 on Monday.
I'm going to you with all my Rangers questions Ira. Not that they could afford that kind of contract anyway. As of my calculations, the Rangers don't have any job openings next season correct? Cruz DH. Murphy(does he hit enough?) in left and Hamilton in right?
Is Borbon really so bad he can't play center? The Cubs sure had a hankerin' for Byrd last year, I don't really see that going away. 3 years 30 mil anyone?
Hey now, for those still interested in this thread. Someone on Neyer's blog said that Bradley refused to pinch hit on Sunday and fought (verbally surely) with Von Joshua. That IS reason for suspension. Why is no one talking about it if it's true? That's another issue in a sense, but we're looking for reasons here.
Let's try to get some confirmation. I'm not interested in rumor mongering but a lot of character issues would seem to be at stake. I also am a longtime Bradley apologist, because I think he's a smart guy who hates the media bs and the type of thinking/reactions it engenders.
The only flaw I've noticed in Huntington's work is that no one will trade him a real starting pitcher (Ohlendorf didn't look like he could start in the bigs until this season). Either that or he's just wanting numbers and is willing to wait for a 1 and 2. Maybe they should pull a Gil Meche and get someone who can take on the other teams ace this off season.
A little late but: Oops, that wasn't a criticism of you CK<3. I was speaking to the 2 initial comments in the idea that fear and frustration caused by watching someone like Guardado (or say AHeilman) come in and blow up a good afternoons' work outweighs looking at Support Neutral Winning Percentage. At least sometimes.
Yes, yes, but there is something to be said for watching the games. McCarthy is the better pitcher if you have to choose between he and Nippert. Maybe we can factor in some Pitch/FX data to get a rounder read on things.
Something not really being discussed is the lingering effect of the smear by TOR gm. Even though Dunn played well in AZ, there was the enough amplification that even Buster Olney threw his name behind it. That no one would offer Dunn 10m per is a bit odd, but markets work that way. An insulting offer can be worse than none. I've been concerned about this since the spring, being a Cubs fan. Offering all the loot to Bradley instead of Dunn was a bonehead move. Bradley is appreciably better defensively(?), if not, why do it.
Regardless, it seemed pretty clear all winter that ATL wasn't about to buy a hitter and Anderson was a bone to the crowd. They were crossing their fingers PHI would implode and they could take their chances with the Mets.
The decision to not sign Adam Dunn is the defining mistake of the Giants, Cubs, and at least a couple of others less powerful. It is the story as it relates to economic issues of last off season. That and the absolutely inexplicable contract to Oliver Perez.
Jim Thome as a free lobster. LOL! Now that's what i call analysis. Too bad they aren't giving Haeger more time, he could work there.
I'm sorry, Nuts & Beerer?
You mean to pwn'd people right? Yeah he would. I think these concepts are fast & loose, if you know what I mean. But intentional walks do tell us a lot about what kind of protection we are talking about.
Now wait a second here. Last month when we were all bemoaning VWells' contract, Rios' was being held up as the kind of asset you hold on to. Being offered the chance to dump a big contract is one thing, but comparing him to a barnyard couch is another. Rios will likely play quite well in Chicago and looks like a rather smart pickup. Talk about exploiting the market weakness, the Sox should be given a better look. This is the Beane action of the moment. Everyone is really talking about the money, not the players and I suppose that's fine. But the White Sox added Peavy & Rios at relatively little cost when they don't have a great pipeline in the near future. They are starting to have real stability in the management side as well. This should be judged as win-win, not the Sox mistake.
I think the idea is that Frazier is a couple of years away. Not THAT big a fan of Phillips that he can't be sent off in a few years.
The funny thing is that the crowd said something. After Buehrle walked Casilla, the crowd interrupted the game by giving him a standing ovation for setting the record. You could see Buehrle trying to concentrate but being kept from his usual pace. It then seemed inevitable that Span would then get a hit. That Pods misplayed Mauer's drive to left to lose the shutout was simply karma.
Cheers Steve! This was quite fun to read. It's not your fault that everyone is writing about this. I like that i got a real story from a credible outlet (BP that is).
Everyone seems to be forgetting that the Pirates had to take J Hanrahan back too. That counts for something in the Nationals defense. Not that the Pirates don't deserve credit, but the Nats really want to clean house. And after watching Milledge for years now, I don't think the odds of him being better than Morgan are THAT high. Nonetheless, great article Joe.
And I see the commish gets to stand next to a 'premium silk plant'.
Just to throw in my nickel.... I agree with you. Snell needs some reformatting, and removing him from the rotation (if not outright trading him if you can find someone) sounds good.
I get the feeling that the Pirates think this deal will work out a lot like the Yankees deal and that's ok. Maybe they just weren't that high on McLouth. It wouldn't be the first time a team protected it's asset and then dealt it.
Tough crowd indeed! This is no harder to understand than CK's reports from Wrigley etc. And BP needs more 'on the ground' type writing anyway. Put some names to some faces when thinking about BABIP and such. Report from all the games you see Rob, people need to read non-sports reporting accounts of ballgames.
Jayhawkbill - I'm glad you write like a writer because I don't, but I've been thinking about replacement levels over time lately too. And I'm not so sure that changes in the levels aren't still extreme. Our population has tripled in 100 years. That's a lot of people to be better than and I'm not convinced that it only raises the level of mediocrity. I'm more of the mind that Joe Dillon would have been a pretty darn good regular 50 years ago.
Not in the least. I think you showed admirable restraint.
There is no charge for awesomeness!
Meow! Just who needs to give it a rest?
Well, narrative always counts. But pitching right after surgery is a little different than shutting out practically the worst offensive team in WS history. And truth be told, neither Schilling or Morris should be in.
No one seems to have added this, but the paid monkey at ESPN did his job yesterday and reported that Junior will be healthy in the legs and able to run. As much as it sounds like Griffey\'s agent selling, it does ring as true considering how terrible he looked down the stretch. If he is healthy, he is worth signing by someone like the Mariners. He could certainly give good production as a left DH guy for them and provide some intangibles for the local media & franchise.
I\'m pretty sure Fontenot is the starting 2B. He doesn\'t have 2 years of eligibility yet so doesn\'t have to sign on the dotted until spring training(?). And he\'s not going anywhere, that\'s certain. And Fontenot\'s a much better 2B than DeRosa,no matter how much ESPN fawns over him. The way Felix Pie is being ignored, he must be already wrapped up for San Diego.
Before we completely jinx the Mets, Putz is an injury risk. He\'s a scary, blow out something type pitcher and Omar has paid a fair price him. Minaya has some cojones, we must give him that.
Something not really mentioned yet is the loyalty to Pettitte. He is revered in the Yankee organization and they are willing to not interfere with his freedom. I don\'t know if they actually had an agreement or not, but offering arbitration would seriously curtail his options. As a follower of the Yanks, I get the impression that if Pattitte pitches next year it will be closer to Texas.
Also, I agree with the general sentiment here that Abreu kind of sucks. How many fly balls did he misplay in right? He was lousy most of the season before it got to be $$$ time. He\'d be too expensive in arbitration and the risk was great he\'d accept.
Cubs, 6/167, 12/2
I agree! Perez could be great anyway in RF. And that is their only supposed hole. And there\'s so much more on the way. Now that they have got their feet wet, they can move forward and be a dominant team into the future.
Having seen both of them pitch multiple times, I\'d agree that Jackson brings more. He actually did improve by a large margin this year. Putting him in a pitchers environment could reap huge rewards. I\'ve never been sold on Sonnanstine as more than a good 4. Also, I\'d agree that trading them both if necessary is the way to go.
Or Post Pujols Stress Disorder. Haven\'t trusted Lidge since that day.
Thanks Joe. I\'ve been sickened all season by Boston\'s BS on this. And a big thanks to ESPN for making it so much worse. They must be getting lobbying fees. Manny & Bos got tired of each other. Can we just leave it at that? Manny should be seen as refreshing and honest. I suspect he\'s as much a \'gamer\' as Varitek and the rest.
I fully agree with Max. You do whatever you want Kevin. Just double the size of the Cubs section ;^} . For those of you who watch the Daily Show, the *stupid* Cubs fans need a little something.
But it is much cheaper. Although those numbers (4/100) have always come from the Boston peeps who try to assassinate Manny at every turn. 5/85 is bait for a big market AL team, which is the smart way to go all around. But back to Manny, he himself said that the way Boston does it is to attack a star players character and then dump him. That way if he plays well afterward, it appears he dogged it in Boston. I think they wanted to move him regardless and got what they wanted.
I don\'t know how this is so bad for the Pirates. Boras found the current loophole in the system and exploited it. And as an added bonus, Coonley was there to twist. The draft system is a bit unfair to the players regardless, and as much as I dislike Boras, he is the only person keeping it somewhat fair. I\'m a Cubs fan and I\'d give Alvarez the money in a heartbeat. The issue to focus on seems to be creating a viable window that speeds negotiation, rather than delay it. Most of the angst here has to do with lost development time, remove that leverage somehow and we\'d be good. The NBA model works so well, there must a version that everyone can agree on.
I don\'t think Jeter to the outfield would ever happen, but what about Cano? Is he too much of a headcase to play center? From what I have seen, he has had problems with concentration this year. Which may preclude getting a good jump on the ball in center. Anyway, he looks like someone who will rebound some next year (at least as a hitter).