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Exactly- $5 mil probably buys the missing wayfinding!
Is it possible to see what happens after two bad outcomes for the pitcher? Less likely at that point to locate the same spot?
Welcome, Jeff. That was a fun read.
Gem of an article.
Right, because reading 100 iterations of #2 starter / #4 starter would be better?
Is it possible to "future-test" PECOTA? For instance, could you plug in another strong season for Kluber and see if PECOTA gets religion?
Easy folks, this is just a little teaser...like a sneaky sneak peak. There will be articles upon articles once the data are released. This is a fun little appetizer in the meantime.
Just dropping by to say this is a great feature! Thank you.
So these were all the nice, reasonable guys...what about the extravagant ones? The ones who were like, “I love money. I bought some pretty good stuff. Got me a $300 pair of socks. Got a fur sink. An electric dog polisher. A gasoline powered turtleneck sweater. And, of course, I bought some dumb stuff, too.”
The Professor (Jason Parks) is a professional "cooler" (i.e. specialized writer, or blogger) with a mysterious past who is enticed from his current job at a club in the internets by club manager Young Genius (Theo Epstein) to do scouting at his club the Cubs, in Chicago.
I can't wait for the day when BP player cards have their aural profiles as well.
Happy trails it won't be the same without you.
that's such a lawful-good comment.
When does Old Hoss get his own column?
"...despite all their range they’re still just a rat in a cage" Oh dear Sam, that line was just smashing.
Yes- reading these is like when I was a kid and rushed downstairs in the morning for cereal and box scores. You are my new cereal and box scores.
Yes, it seems that both he and Bauer have had pretty dismal performances so far but rank quite high on Upside...can you elaborate? Thanks, this was a good read.
Is Sam's writing the Deduno Curveball of baseball articles? Does that make me Eaton? I'm confused but so happy.
As noted above in the comments, is it a teamwide simulation or does it account for individual players? Would LOVE to see the statistics from that 99 win season, or engage in some BP roundtable speculation of what that might have looked like.
Interesting...Mark Reynolds is a little less legally blind against offspeed pitches.
Kinsler's half-hearted toe touch of the base afterward is a nice detail.
Wait, that watch has both an Illuminator and a Light?
As a board of director president I actually sympathize with the challenges of instituting change in an organization. We are a non-profit arts group so have little wiggle room between success and failure, so pulling off a change in thinking and execution is actually a very complex task. Even if I in the leadership position believe in this change, it needs to be filtered down through every person in the organization for it to be performed properly. This takes proper training and education, which is a drain on resources. People who are threatened will become divisive and cause moral stress. Staff who already work hard and want to go home to their families will be asked to take on this additional load, and may resent that it came from “up top”. And the change will attract heightened scrutiny. Any mishap will be magnified, and the person associated with the idea will need to fight hard against the perception of potential failure. I find that it takes at least several years to truly enact even a small change, and in the meantime there will be acrimonious discussions about whether it is worth it. This is not to defend doctors who kill with their germs, just to put some perspective on the challenges a leadership may face in enacting great new ideas. It does have to be balanced with the reality of organizational ecology. Thanks everyone for this great discussion!
Johnny Damon, because...how could anyone concentrate? Maybe there is a future Lineup Card in the worst looking actions by otherwise good players.
Can Gabe please be a part of the 25-person BP roster?
"...your buddy lobbing you an anecdote is not enough data for you to kick another human being in the nuts."
"Hi, I'm Colby Rasmus. I'm kinda the Bryce Harper of raising his value with the Yankees." That should play well at the Manhattan clubs!
I'm curious if you identify yourself as a writer for BP, and if that changes the tone of the conversation from the scouts.
Cashner's arm speed looks like a digital trick. Amazing.
I cannot believe 50% of batters can touch Strasburg's change. I would like to take 1000 swings at it and see if one touches the bat.
Not sure if this is comedy or horror watching these. Please keep them coming!
Thirds on ED. Easily the most fun player aside from Bo to watch. Defense, offense, baserunning...everything he did was a potential highlight. Fighting with Golden Gloves third basemen, not so much.
Does the Andrus contract include any trade restrictions?
You spoil us.
As I recall, offense also trends down in cold weather, so for Rotisserie I have known owners who stack the pitching deck early and trade for bats later.
I would love to see more of the list of batters like Ichiro who use various parts of the zone for contact. Are these batters better are recognizing pitches, or are they adjusting pitch to pitch, or something else? What a great example of data telling an intriguing story.
OOOH! Scouts versus Stats...fight, fight, fight!
Sure Manny Castillo hit .207, but it was an empty .207.
Anything you have heard about Francisco K-Rodriguez?
Pre-teens who are conversant in game theory, regression and psych. Smart bunch.
Jason- thank you again for responding to the comments- I'm finding this section actually covers a lot of the honorable mentions and just missed types. It's the most informative comments section on the interweb, and I don't mean that as faint praise.
So is Sandy Rosario the 1201st best baseball player in the world?
Ted had crazy #sparkle
Since Parks hates throwing around comps, maybe he can just use "Barry Bonds, Lucas Duda, Ben Grieve" on every player.
Darnell Sweeney...is he a something?
Maybe there was something wrong with Miller's cable.
Wow, I didn't realize that MIL had cornered the De Los Santos market with both Fautino and Miguel. FDLS & MDLS could relieve each other soon!
And Loria would have you burned in half the long way with a laser beam.
Are you hinting that some people don't write good?
Bruce Jenkins doesn't use newfangled nerdy technology like email, he prefers the timeless quality of Sanskrit scrolls.
Is there any more discussion of what "equity" means in this case? Is $100mil+/year just sitting around waiting for the next club sale? Can it be put into an investment vehicle, like stocks, etc? Or is the implication that it can be disbursed to the owner during the year to offset paying salaries? At that rate, why not cap the official revenue sharing at $1 and take in 100% equity?
"Los, Schlagmann, mit Schwung!"
Can either of these now be nicknames? Los Schlagmann or Mit Schwung would work swell.
Resignation not accepted, please report to BP as usual next week.
Happy trails, you should be able to find plenty of Mexican coke down there. You will be missed by us as much as you are welcomed by Houston.
My two cents, since I really WANT to like the scout's views section: it might be more helpful and fun to see a variety of scout views on a few players, rather than one per. That way you could see some context for whether one scout is an outlier or if they all say the same thing. Probably too much work, but I like John's contextual writing and want to like the scouts views, but do find them often mystifying and vague.
Love this feature and this version of it in particular. The context and set-up is great. Here's hoping that Darvish grows into the true ace he looks like at times like these, instead of the nibbling virtuoso he sometimes is.
Yes, as noted by one of the announcers during the Olympics, Bolt's stride is 10 feet at full speed, and that he only take 40-41 strides during the 100 (compared to 45-47 more typically). It may be that BH is taking fewer strides between bases, which would seem to be an important stat in basestealing.
Is this the highest rated comment ever? Where are the stats for that located?
Has his release point or mound location changed as well?
You knocked the low hanging fruit out of the park.
I did not win the saving throw, but luckily my qwerty skills are +15.
Why, WHY did you make me look up what Affliction is? I must now make a saving throw or lose my eyes.
...and how many of them involved Houston!
I always wanted to believe #2 was how all deals got done. Isn't there a direct correlation between Beckett values and the Pecota values?
Because EVERYBODY knows he is going to be stealing nearly every time? And he still is safe 80% of the time. It would be like a pitcher telling you his pitch and still striking you out.
Based on some simple innings counts, it seems you need a 13 man staff to make it happen. 4 @ 185 innings [40 starts each!], 2 @ 100 innings, and 7 @ 66 innings = 1400 innings. Or 6 @ 77 innings. This is assuming you have 2 long guys to soak up 100 innings (maybe in obvious losses), and a larger group of situational guys for close games.
Not necessarily- Dee Gordon is another who didn't play much baseball growing up, even though he was exposed to it. It must help, but reps are probably more important than exposure.
The successful toolshed stories that struggle early seem to have a feel for drawing a walk early....is Aaron Hicks one to keep in eye on?
Also curious, is this a new BP format?
This seems like a discussion about the means of collecting data. Scouts are in many ways attempting to codify behavior for analysis, in the same way pitchFX does. Currently, using human collection is much more feasible for most data collection, especially at lower levels. As the infrastructure of digital data collection grows, perhaps scouting will become irrelevant in some ways. There is also a question of proprietary data collection that enters into play, ie a team doesn't want to just share a collective infrastructure of data- there is no competitive advantage. SO, in "near future" when we can quantify everything about all players, then Patrick will be correct.
It reminds me a of an old economics joke [shortened here]: Three people, one an economist, are stranded on a desert island with a bunch of canned food and no can opener. The two cannot open the cans, so they turn to the economist who says "Let's start by imagining a perfect can opener..."
Nice to have this long form writing for a leisurely Saturday morning read.
Could you clarify what NPA is? Maybe it could get a glossary definition. Same goes for ASMI, which is easier to google. NPA comes up with a choice for National Parking Association, National Powerball Auctions, and Natural Products Association. Apologies in advance (AIA) if it is in the article and I missed it. I hope it stands for Notable Pitcher Abuse.
"The rapid increase in worldwide population has put a nicknaming strain on us all." This will be the most vexing problem for the next generation. What hath we wrought?
Can we get a follow-up with closer blown-save reactions? Another favorite in the genre is the batter in save situation body language. The Manny Ramirez "I don't know what inning it is" combined with Big Papi's "I am going to skull**** you" were classic.
I also get nothing. On Firefox and PC.
Thanks, these are great. One request: can you add a decimal point to the age category? It makes a difference whether someone is 19.1 or 19.9 in terms of development.
Oh yeah, you couldn't turn your eyes away from Eric Davis.
Best column thrown this week. Thanks, do it again and again.
So your Dad is Billy Beane and your mom is Tony LaRussa?
I'm curious about your thoughts about the 3rd overall pick for Seattle, having a better change of outranking Paxton and Hultzen- who are you thinking here? Is this a commentary on the strength of this pick or Hultzen and Paxton?
Sam, will you be a regular Monday morning writer? The answer here is, "yes," please.
+1, great writing Sam.
Along these lines- are there any repercussions for the Rangers? Would they face any penalty, potentially? If not, it seems like a great move on their part to jump at even the chance that this would work out.
Can we upgrade this to Worst Game of the Week? Is that like a Platinum level BP subscription?
Does this mean the A's will be offering more whole roast pig at the concessions?
Actually, Mila Kunis standing next to Danny DeVito would make a pretty good Super Mario movie poster.
Stop it, you have uncovered one of my favorite values. Floyd has been on nearly every team of mine in the past few years. There are a handful of similar pitchers who form the core of my staff that are always solid and unsexy. My mules.
Last I heard, Lazlo was living in a van, claiming he could throw a football over mountains. You didn't mention his two-sport background.
Oh boy, I thought Sorrento was a sure star from those Beavers games. I was truly confused by his inability to succeed in the majors, like there must have been some conspiracy.
26 is the new 27! I remember some component curves from years ago and speed peaked earliest, BB rate latest, with HR in between, IIRC. Also pitchers, especially K rate, peaked pretty early as well, and maybe had a flatter curve.
Just curious, are there any articles that correlate weight gain/loss with production? It is such a tired winter storyline that it seems like you'd have a mountain of potential data to mine.
Did they dress you up like dogs as well to take advantage of the promotion? I guess that would have made it more fun, if less noble.
Don't forget the role venue can play in this. Growing up a Mariners fan in the late 80's and early 90's combined a special kind of mediocrity with a soul crushing dome. There must have been dozens of games that would qualify for this honor. Also: why are so many Mariners fans chiming in here?
Kevin, About how far to the 3 stars go, and the 2 stars begin?
Are Gyroko and Spangenburg close? Reading the two, Spangenburg actually sounds more enticing in many ways.
Yes, more please. [sound of applause clap]
Can't we get this World Series thing out of the way and get down to the serious business of Winter Wishcasting? [with thanks to CK]
Great read. I especially like how it all seemed very intuitive, but there were some real surprises like the Hitter Discipline Pickouts.
He reminds me of Jason Park's favorite body type. I am growing my child to match said numbers, have Jason scout him, and retire with his signing bonus.
Where to position the straw on the mirror?
I'm going to get a t-shirt that says "Massively Athlete" (Brandon Jacobs). Great unintentional neologism.
Is Holmberg getting consideration ("on the spreadsheet")? Thanks again!
Another way to look at the most profitable, in terms of draft strategies:
1. Not Sexy, Not Yet Over the Hill: Ortiz, Beltran, Berkman.
2. Got His Groove Back: Kemp, Cabrera, Granderson.
3. Runnin' Wild: Bourn, Andrus
4. Post Hype All Star: Gordon
5. Ludwick 2008: Brantley
They probably won't be new, just gently used.
Yes, but what will you be drinking?
I want a "CJ Cron 2000 On Base Machine" for Christmas. Are those sold in stores, or just online?
Were his three outcomes facial hair, skin color, and team logo? Take a gander at his player link.
We can almost have an all X-Y-Z edition of the FutShoB with all the Xanders, Xaviers, Yasmanis and Zach(k)s running around.
Just re-watching Twin Peaks the show now, and she is...dangerous.
The meme I have heard about this is that they couldn't land a quality FA prior to Werth, even with plenty of money. Now that they actually landed real talent, more will follow. At least that's the story line. Offseason will be the test.
Hey, that's pretty good for a teenage shortstop in hi-A, er, wait...
It's a small issue, but can you make the links open in a new tab or window, rather than jumping to another site? I realize I can right click and all, but that part of my hand is atrophied from so much left clicking. Just a thought, not sure if others agree.
Hate to start a thread about a non-listed player, but any thoughts on Duffy pitching for KC tonight? Seems aggressive, but he's been solid so far. Are the scouting reports matching up with the numbers?
While not perfect, Hit Tracker posts "True Distance" and "no doubt" home runs. It seems Bautista is akin to David Banner, only he has been really mad for two years now.
If it makes you feel any better, you are only averaging -7.67 per posting today :)
And then you dropped it in your lap. Then it would have the potential to be delicious, but instead was really messy.
Wait- are you a lefty?
Love it, but why is the text doubled up at the end? Are they that good that you need to repeat yourself?
This is a really consistent article. I'm not sure I can say if it is a great article, it has a lot of words. Ben has great stuff and I think Christina might have written it different, but overall I think he was consistently great.
Funny, the ad at the top of my page is for Hawaiian airlines. Is your ad mechanism smart enough to read Ka'aihue and translate that into solicitation? They are a tier 3 airline in my opinion.
1. Kila Kaaihue is going to be a star!
2. Also would be happy if you could add quality starts and holds.
3. Is Total Bases coming out weird? When I ran it they were really low, like 168 or something for Pujols, etc.
4. Nice to see you again, PFM.
Another +1 for this article, both the original work as well as the thorough citations and links. A great primer for the discussion that I will bookmark since it collects and uses the various data so well. Looking forward to more.
Poor expectant Nats fans! Do you see Norris and Strasburg teaming up?
It will help someone's fantasy team...
Is there going to be a super-villain sequel? Joe "The Joker" Randa says there ought to be.
Additionally, is outfield defense (positioning, arms, athleticism, putting the right guys in the right spots) getting better?
Since we seem to be voting, I will go thumbs up. I enjoy BP for writing that explores and questions the tropes of [life] baseball, and this qualifies. It is well written and funny to boot, so good coffee-time at the computer before the drudgery of work sets in. Thanks.
I noticed as well. One of the first things I do is search for current players with my favorite past players as comps. I was fairly surprised to find that Eric Davis only shows up for Dennis Raben, who also has Willie McCovey(!) and Brandon Wood. Time to get that Raben jersey.
Hold on- are you saying Baseball is not religious in nature?
The "White Elephants" analogy is bold, Tommy. Are the A's still in the train station? Or are they coming home?
Great article, and the comments have been fun as well. Thanks. More baseball accounting!
It's even better if you say it with a Southie accent.
"...and a bat-wielding Alfonso Soriano flailed away at the broken and bleeding body of a billy goat (which, like most of the intended targets of Soriano’s swings, would lie buried in the dirt"
Also concur with CRP13...as we say in architecture circles, Dunn has become the "caulk" solution. If nothing else works, just fill it with caulk.
This was a fun read, thanks for the finds. So both Pena and Reynolds could become the first ever 100/300/400 slash lines? TTO eat your heart out!
Let's not forget what he's worth from a marketing standpoint. He's up there with Cal Ripkin in terms of getting butts in seats and selling shirts. Even KC would pay more that $8mil/2 years for that I suppose.
Brutal, no mention of Taylor under the Athletics. Has his stock fallen that far?
Wow, that Betancourt was INTENTIONALLY walked this year is incredible.
I concur that the ESPN inSider stuff tends to be a repackaging of analysis we have already seen on BP. Personally I would likely still read it, but wouldn't mind if they would put the ESPN insider disclaimer at the top of the article instead of the bottom. That way you wouldn't be left wondering halfway through the article why it sounds remedial.
Holy smokes, is Zach Braddock for real or is he playing video games?
I love, love, love that you are doing game theory. That said, I wish there was something closer to concrete results with the article. Can you introduce something using tAvg? For instance, what is the difference in tAvg between 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 counts? Even better, could you add tAvg for swinging strikes, swinging balls, etc?
+1, that would be interesting to compare
Baseballnotebook.com is also a strong projection site. I've used them paired with PECOTA now with great success. Every system has its flaws and hangups. Get to know at least a couple of them and make your own call based on their biases. I don't mean to advert for a competitor, but it seems like you should have at least one more system that you are using in combination with BP. BN costs money but I've found it to be really valuable.
Happy to help.
"a baker’s dozen of pitchers which includes the likes of CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay"
That's different than a Dusty Baker's dozen of pitchers that includes Prior, Wood, Volquez, et al?
They had statistics in the 70's? :)
Very well done, this is a memorable article.
I second the second guessing of "true." Is it REALLY true? Or is it more "comprehensive" or maybe "total". Total works since you wouldn't have to change any acronyms.
Right- if they are close to each other you can identify the guy with the lowest average draft position and seek out value while going after other players with great production, scarcer tiers, and higher draft position. If I'm drafting and there as still (5) 1B 4stars available and and (1) SS 4star available, it should be obvious who to draft next. That is, if you trust the system.
RE: your Point 2 response: Yes! I enjoy having the sausage guts available, but often just want to read the 3-4 summarizing paragraphs scattered throughout. It can be a test of one's scanning skills to track these down in a lengthy SIERRA article, but I do it nonetheless. Why not have expandable sausage guts in the article? A little like a banished comment, you can expand it if you want to see more, but can opt for the flow of 3 concise paragraphs instead. Especially since I am shirking work and can't focus on the guts just now.
More from Blengino! Intriguing substantive quotes about reliability vs. spectacular.
Wait a sec, doesn't Wang rhyme with wrong? Seriously, that is how I have heard it- pronounced like "wong". It's really just a point of clarification, since I think cttigers has a legitimate beef (if unpleasant way of putting it). Not necessarily in the sense of the R/L pronunciation of some SE Asian cultures, but in the lack of a verb in the construction. You can practically hear Micky Rooney's Mr. Yunioshi shouting "Wang Wrong!" with his oversized buck teeth. It's not a stretch to hear bigotry in the original title, even if it is obviously unintended.
Maybe what dpowell is getting at is that there might be a subset of players who, say, peak quite high at the age of 27, and then drop precipitously out of the league by age 31. They would not be included in this data, therefore "flattening" the shape of the arc in favor of a type of player with a longer career. If they were included, it would affect the shape the arc into a faster decline, and perhaps lower age peak. It might not be a question of good players vs. bad players as Bradbury puts it, but body type. Does this make sense? Apologies, I'm no statistician...
Regarding dpowell's criticism: did ALL of the players in the study play from 24-35? If so, then that particular point is moot, no? I think Bradbury was trying to eliminate "white noise" from his study, which means no lost years during the study. It's not clear from the explanation whether all players made it from 24-35.
Dave: I agree with you that this study appears to focus solely on aging, while teams may be more interested in overall attrition, whether through aging or injuries. If all players age the same (say 29 is peak), and have, say, a 10% chance of career-ending or degrading injury every year, then it would lower the mode peak age. You might peak at 29 without injury, but have only a 75% chance of making it, for example. If you could find the rate of "freak" injury, and correlate it with this aging chart, you might find that 27 is a mode peak age. Or maybe not, anyone have some free time?
Thanks for the article, engaging piece.
+1, I'd love to see a list like this that accounts for the next 5 years or so overall. Kevin gave it a shot, but it wasn't focused on fantasy.
Tiers/stars would be much more helpful, especially if it can be used to correlate between positions. For instance- do you draft the 5th best shortstop if he is the first of a long line of 3 star choices, or the 12th best outfielder if he is the last 4 star player.
Great piece. Nice writing, thorough analysis...more please. One thought- did you look into strand rate? Another statistic that can indicate good/bad luck (or sometimes skill) over a year.
Just a thought re: Thome blocking Quentin from the DH. How much value is lost not having a DH that can also play in the field when you want to give some of your heavy lumber a day off from the field? Maybe it's not much, but it seems like in an ideal world you'd have that DH slot available for guys who get dinged up but can still swing a bat. Guys like Thome, Ortiz, Pronk, et al can't really be put in the field, so you need to sit one or the other.
More of these!
That Pedro Gomez vote count is shocking. Jay Bell and Dave Parker over Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven? I would love to hear the reasoning behind that vote.
Also, I don\'t mind if people list things that you can\'t order. I\'m going to save this list for the next time I travel. It beats Rick Steves.
Some random thoughts from Portland, OR:
-Stumptown Hairbender blend coffee
-Terminal Gravity IPA
-Fat Elvis cupcake from Saint Cupcake
-Pok Pok\'s fish sauce wings
-Stanich\'s or Giant\'s burger for greasy, Slow Bar\'s for gourmet
-Zig Zig Inn\'s #13 pizza
-Montage\'s Spicy Old mac \'n cheese, or crawdaddy po\'boy lunch special.
That\'s actually a pretty good day right there in that order.
Thirded, along with mid season PECOTA. I would love to have the long term WARP and MORP in sortable fashion.
Can Crow re-open talks with the Nats, assuming MLB and MLBPA agree to allow it? If they don\'t, on what grounds can they deny that negotiation after this precedent was set?