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Run expectation doesn't tell the whole story. Even getting just one more run would have put the game farther out of reach for the Phillies. The odds of scoring at least one run are greater with one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd than with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd.
The move wouldn't have made sense in the 3rd inning, but in the bottom of the 7th with Mariano coming in to pitch two innings it's the right move.
This doesn't excuse Jeter trying to bunt with two strikes, though.