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Wilhelmsen seems interesting. I will have to keep an eye out for how a guy with that little history can do in the majors.
Great stuff as always RJ. Ive enjoyed your non-BP stuff and you've done a good job here so far.
This column so far has felt overly detailed and yet not detailed enough at the same time.
I wish it basically broke down each players injury into 3 basic things with little else. I want to know how long you would estimate the player is going to be out for, is the injury going to effect the player even when hes back in the lineup and which part of his game is going to be effected. The exact medical details I could do with less of.
Pretty funny that PECOTA has Scott Rolen and McGehee as close to the same hitter as A-Rod at this point. Too many of these PECOTAs have been messed up the last couple years for them to mean much at this point imo.
Also Carps WARP total is way off for someone who only projected 27 PA at all positions.
Yeah Granderson should have more playing time than that. Gardner and Jones are probably both given too much PT.
I love that PECOTA projects Kazmir to have a ERA 60 points lower than Romero. I'm not bashing the projections in general, but there are always some funky ones and those 2 definitely surprised me.
I think this would be a better argument if minor leaguers with similar numbers were being compared, but Marcum is a proven major leaguer and Bumgarner and Hudson have shown no signs that their stuff isn't going to play in the majors as well as it did in the minors and both have proven themselves to a certain degree as well.
Nice article Jason.
Congrats and welcome Jason.
Great article Matt!
Are platoon splits included in this?
I loved this article! One of the best things I've read on BP in a while. Great job Matt.
Cool article. I look forward to more.
A lot of the platoon split info on the player cards seems wrong. Seems to compare some LHB to switch hitters and other glitches. I hope this gets dealt with cause one of the best things about last years player cards were the projected platoon splits.
They have him throwing 98 innings between starting and relieving.
I think this may be slightly correct but not because of some anti-Yankees bias but just because it seems like Winn would be a better fit for other teams. The Yankees really could use a 4th outfielder that can really mash left-handed pitching. Winn doesn't really compliment their current outfield very well, but I still think for $2 mill its decent value.
Surprisingly enough PECOTA actually has a reasonable Ichiro projection this year.
A problem with these depth chart projections are that they project Rowland Smith and Petit to play all their innings as a starter with the same ERA as their normal PECOTA projections where the normal ones project both of them to be in the bullpen a good amount. It leads ones like these too be too optimistic while ones like Phil Hughes only having a ERA of 3.93 in the bullpen for the Yankees.
The 2 projections above seem really optimistic anyways though.
They must project the Royals defense to be terrible. Greinkes EqERA is projected to be 3.58, which still seems a bit high to me.
One thing that I didn't like about the article is that I feel like it was fine to rag on teams for signing mediocre FAs a couple years ago by saying that they were giving up draft picks as part of your argument, but I think most people are worrying about it too much now. Even very smart baseball writers and fans seem to value the picks too highly. I feel like a lot of the time they almost forget that it still costs money to sign these picks and they look at it like they teams are just giving up or getting whats basically a prospect that will likely be in there top 10 or at least 15 prospects without considering the prospects signing bonus. Obviously it matters whether or not a FA is a Type A or B when deciding to sign them and obviously teams are still going to get better ROIs on average from late 1st and 2nd round picks compared to free agency, but I still feel like people go overboard with worrying about it.
Very enjoyable article.
I never thought of Fiorentino as more than a AAAA player before without knowing much about him. But yeah he seems like great pickup for a team(sucks that it seems to be a Japanese team), an adjusted line of 286/363/485 line in the minors and his career UZR in the majors is very good albeit in a small sample size, but his defensive rep seems alright anyways.
Also after looking at some numbers Crips seems like hes going to be a bargain. If hes healthy I think he can be a very good player. Over small sample size last year if you look past his BABIP that was 62 points lower than his career he actually played pretty well. He had his highest BB% of his career by a decent margin and did a nice job of cutting his K% too while maintaining an ISO 20 points higher than his career. His UZR was also excellent given his playing time.
For those that want more info on platoon splits and how much regression they need here is an unfiltered article Nate did 2 years ago when he was getting ready to implement the PECOTA cards with platoon info. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=669
Just thought Id share that cause this article reminded me of it and platoon splits have always been very interesting more me.
Great article. Game theory is a very interesting subject and its nice to see it used for baseball analysis. I haven't read any of the other submissions yet, but this will probably be one of the best.
MLB.com and some articles are now saying that Willingham will be the man out initially with Johnson at 1B and Dunn in LF.
\"OK, I\'m going to cut you off there. How about salary increases for the deserving, oppressed gulag workers that we know as the players?\"
This made me genuinely laugh out loud.
What chance of being healthy do the colours mean again? I know there are different shades of green etc, but I am curious about this. Searching some old articles I found that green means a 55% chance of not going on the DL for the whole season, but was wondering about yellow and red.
Yeah the Guzman projection is pretty dumb. I think the reason for it is that PECOTA only uses the last 3 years of their career and in the period of time Guzman has only had 804 ABs and has had a 280 eqa. They need to do more regression to the mean or look back at more years when there is only 804 ABs counting towards his projection.
So basically add that with him still being in his prime and probably getting some favourable comparables and you come out with a extremely good projection.
I agree with this completely. I love Milledge as much as the next guy, but I\'m always going to take Zimmerman before him.
Im sure if Granderson could be had for Igawa and Cabrera Cashman would be all over it.
Did Eduardo Morlan get protected after all or do you think hes just not going to get drafted? I thought he was one of the more interesting players available.
Tim will always be \"The Freak\" to me.
I think if the Nats sign Dunn it will be a pretty bad deal too, but for different reasons. They have decent potential for good production at OF and 1B. If they plan on signing anyone it should be a pitcher or maybe a middle infielder imo.
The difference is probably made up when you consider the position they play and how they were rated before the season.
His glove isnt good enough to make up the difference when they are against a right handed starter where Feliz is a career 246/282/422 hitter compared to Dobbs who is career 278/322/444 hitter against them.
No mention of the top of the eighth last night in the Sox/Rays game. 2 guys on and 1 out with Byrd pitching Madden lets Baldelli hit instead of pinch hitting with Gross, then after Baldelli hits the homer he replaces him with Gross on defense. I did not understand these 2 consecutive plays at all. I would think you either let him hit and leave Baldelli in to play on defense or you pinch hit with Gross.
Over Moyers career hes been better against righties than lefties so he shouldn\'t be considered someone who would get crushed by the Brewers and their right handed bats.